China lifts aluminium shipments amid supply squeeze

China’s aluminium exports accelerated in May as overseas buyers turned to the world’s biggest producer to offset supply disruption triggered by the Middle East war, while crude oil imports dropped to their lowest level in eight years in a sign of strain across the country’s commodity flows.

Customs figures showed a sharp rise in outbound shipments of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, extending the strong performance seen in April, when exports reached 598,000 metric tonnes. The increase underlined China’s role as the main buffer for a global market unsettled by production cuts, shipping delays and higher insurance costs linked to the conflict around the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

The aluminium surge came as China’s wider trade machine gathered pace. Total exports rose 19.4 per cent from a year earlier in May, beating forecasts and widening the trade surplus to more than $105 billion. Imports also grew 27.4 per cent, but the headline gain masked a sharp fall in crude purchases, with volumes down about 29 per cent as refiners leaned more heavily on inventories and cut some buying amid elevated freight and geopolitical risks.

Aluminium has become one of the clearest channels through which the Middle East war is reshaping industrial supply chains. Producers in Gulf states account for a meaningful share of non-Chinese primary aluminium supply, and disruption to power-intensive smelting, port activity and shipping routes has tightened availability for consumers in Europe, Asia and North America. Prices in London climbed to a four-year high this month as traders priced in the risk of prolonged supply constraints.

Chinese exporters have benefited from the opening. Producers and traders have increased shipments of semi-finished products and other aluminium categories where overseas premiums have risen faster than domestic prices. The price gap has improved margins for exporters, even as Beijing continues to manage capacity growth in a sector long associated with heavy energy use and emissions.

The market shift is particularly important for manufacturers in transport, construction, packaging, power infrastructure and renewable energy. Aluminium is widely used in electric vehicles, aircraft parts, solar frames, building systems and high-voltage transmission equipment. A sustained shortage outside China could raise input costs for industries already dealing with expensive financing, disrupted shipping schedules and volatile energy markets.

China’s advantage rests on scale. The country dominates global aluminium production and has built deep processing capacity across provinces such as Shandong, Henan, Guangxi and Yunnan. Its producers can move quickly when export margins improve, though output remains constrained by power costs, environmental controls and the national ceiling on smelting capacity.

The export rise also carries political sensitivity. Western governments have long argued that China’s industrial policies create excess capacity and depress global prices. A fresh wave of metal exports, even if driven by war-related shortages, could sharpen trade friction at a time when the United States, Europe and other economies are expanding scrutiny of Chinese goods in sectors ranging from steel and batteries to solar components and electric vehicles.

Crude oil tells a different story. China remains the world’s largest crude importer, but May’s decline showed how refiners are adjusting to uncertainty in Gulf shipping. The Middle East supplied a large share of China’s crude last year, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar among key reported suppliers, while Iranian barrels have continued to reach Chinese buyers through opaque trading channels.

Refiners have drawn on commercial and strategic inventories built during earlier periods of lower prices and heavy discounted buying. Weak domestic fuel margins have also reduced the incentive to import aggressively. Independent refiners in Shandong and state-run plants have faced pressure from high crude costs, capped fuel prices and softer demand growth as electric vehicles erode petrol consumption.

The fall in crude imports may help ease immediate pressure on global oil markets, but it also reflects the vulnerability of China’s energy security to maritime disruption. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to crude and liquefied natural gas flows, and any prolonged interruption would force Beijing to rely more on stockpiles, pipeline supplies from Russia and Central Asia, and alternative seaborne routes.

For commodity markets, May’s trade data showed a split picture. Metals exports are expanding where China can monetise overseas shortages, while energy imports are being managed more cautiously to reduce exposure to war-driven price spikes. Copper imports slipped from April, suggesting that parts of the manufacturing supply chain remain uneven despite the strong headline export performance.