China accelerates Russian oil buying amid Gulf risks

Chinese refiners are securing Russian crude weeks ahead of normal purchasing schedules as threats to Middle Eastern supply routes intensify, pushing buyers towards oil shipped from Russia’s Pacific coast.

September-loading cargoes of ESPO Blend, Russia’s flagship Far Eastern crude grade, have attracted brisk demand from state-owned and independent refiners despite shrinking discounts. Buyers that would normally enter the market closer to loading dates are moving early to lock in supplies and reduce exposure to possible shipping delays across the Gulf and Red Sea.

ESPO cargoes delivered to China are being offered at discounts of roughly $1 to $3 a barrel against benchmark Brent prices. That compares with discounts near $4 for some August supplies, indicating that demand has strengthened even as the crude becomes less attractive on price.

The buying surge reflects growing concern over the reliability of Middle Eastern flows. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with threats to shipping near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, has complicated routes used by Gulf producers to reach Asian customers.

Saudi Arabia has relied more heavily on its East-West pipeline to move crude from production centres near the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That option reduces dependence on Hormuz but leaves shipments exposed to security risks near Yemen and the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

China, the world’s largest crude importer, depends heavily on Middle Eastern producers. Russia offers an alternative supply line that avoids both maritime chokepoints. ESPO is particularly valuable because cargoes are shipped from Kozmino, near the Pacific coast, and can reach northern Chinese ports within days.

The short voyage lowers freight costs, reduces transit risk and gives refiners greater flexibility than crude shipped from the Gulf, Atlantic Basin or western Russian ports. ESPO is also a light, low-sulphur grade that produces relatively high volumes of petrol and diesel, making it suitable for many Chinese refining configurations.

Russia’s seaborne deliveries to China have increasingly centred on Far Eastern supply. ESPO represented about 62 per cent of China’s seaborne Russian crude imports in June, while overall Russian seaborne volumes rose by nearly 9 per cent from the previous month.

Purchases are being supported by competition from buyers elsewhere in Asia. Strong demand from India has helped prevent Russian exporters from offering the wide discounts seen earlier in the year. ESPO cargoes had traded as much as $9 to $10 below Brent for some February loadings before the market tightened.

The latest deals show how geopolitical risk can outweigh concerns surrounding sanctions and payment arrangements. Western measures against Russia have forced traders to rely on alternative shipping, insurance and financial networks, but established routes between Kozmino and China have continued to operate.

Chinese refiners are also examining fresh purchases of Iranian crude, which remains heavily discounted because of sanctions and transport risks. Independent processors concentrated in Shandong province have held talks over Pars and Iran Light cargoes as sellers seek buyers for barrels already moving towards Asia or held in floating storage.

Iranian grades have become cheaper relative to ESPO, although refiners must weigh the discount against possible delays, tanker availability and tighter enforcement. High international prices also restrict the amount smaller plants can purchase, particularly when domestic fuel demand and refining margins are uncertain.

Several independent refiners bought about 20 million barrels of crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar for July and August loading when Middle Eastern supplies briefly became cheaper. Some companies are now exploring the resale of those cargoes at higher prices to refiners in Taiwan and South Korea as regional availability tightens.

That shift illustrates the speed with which China’s private refining sector responds to changes in freight, sanctions and physical supply. The plants, often described as teapot refiners, can switch among Russian, Iranian and non-sanctioned Middle Eastern grades depending on margins and import quotas.