Sri Lanka lifts fuel prices after IMF payout

Sri Lanka raised fuel prices by up to 6 per cent on Sunday, days after securing a $695 million instalment from the International Monetary Fund, as Colombo moved to align energy pricing with bailout conditions aimed at reducing subsidies and restoring fiscal discipline.

The state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation increased the price of 92-octane petrol to 434 Sri Lankan rupees a litre from 410 rupees, while auto diesel rose to 407 rupees from 392 rupees. The revision adds to household and transport costs at a time when the island’s recovery from its 2022 debt default remains exposed to global energy shocks, a weaker currency and pressure on public finances.

The adjustment follows the IMF executive board’s approval of fresh funding under Sri Lanka’s $2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility, agreed in early 2023 after the country ran out of foreign exchange and suspended repayment on about $46 billion in external debt. The programme requires cost-reflective pricing for fuel and electricity, stronger revenue collection, improved governance and protection for vulnerable households as subsidies are gradually unwound.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told the IMF that fuel subsidies will be phased out by September. The pledge marks a politically sensitive step for a government facing pressure from consumers, transport operators and small businesses that remain scarred by the shortages and inflationary spiral of 2022. Fuel pricing has become a central test of the administration’s ability to maintain reform commitments without provoking a deeper squeeze on living standards.

Sri Lanka imports all its petroleum requirements and also relies on imported coal for part of its electricity generation. That exposure has sharpened the impact of turmoil in the Middle East, where higher crude prices and disruption risks have increased the cost of energy imports. Petrol and diesel prices have climbed sharply since late February, while electricity tariffs have also been raised as part of the effort to prevent losses at state-owned utilities from spilling into the budget.

The price increase comes amid renewed inflation concerns. Headline inflation rose to 5.4 per cent in April from 2.2 per cent in March, reversing part of the disinflation that had helped stabilise the economy after the crisis. Fuel and transport costs are expected to feed into food distribution, public transport fares and logistics charges, with lower-income households likely to feel the effects first.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka responded to the pressure last week with an unexpected 100-basis-point increase in its benchmark policy rate, lifting the overnight policy rate to 8.75 per cent from 7.75 per cent. The move was designed to contain inflation expectations, limit rupee depreciation and support external stability, though it also raised concerns that tighter credit could slow investment and consumption.

Foreign reserves fell 3.8 per cent in April to $6.7 billion, reflecting higher import costs and currency pressure. The IMF disbursement is expected to help rebuild reserve buffers, but the broader challenge remains keeping the external account stable while meeting fuel, fertiliser, medicine and food import needs. A sustained rise in energy prices could widen the import bill and complicate the government’s debt-restructuring path.

Economic growth is projected to slow to about 3 per cent this year after expanding 5 per cent in 2025. Tourism, remittances and improved fiscal management have supported the rebound, but higher interest rates and energy costs could weigh on activity. Businesses that depend on transport and electricity are likely to pass on part of the cost increase, while exporters face mixed effects from a weaker rupee and higher domestic input prices.

The fuel adjustment also revives debate over the balance between reform and relief. Cost-recovery pricing is intended to stop Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and the power sector from accumulating losses that would eventually require budget support. Critics argue that faster price transmission can deepen hardship unless social protection systems are strengthened and targeted cash transfers reach households most exposed to rising food, transport and utility bills.