Mainland money pivots towards AI shares

Mainland Chinese investors have turned net sellers of Hong Kong-listed equities through Stock Connect, marking a rare reversal in cross-border flows as enthusiasm for onshore artificial intelligence shares draws capital back towards Shanghai and Shenzhen.

The shift reflects a sharp change in investor preference after months of underperformance by Hong Kong equities against mainland peers. Mainland investors sold about HK$3.6 billion of Hong Kong shares through the trading links last month, the first monthly net outflow since June 2023 and one of only a small number of monthly selling episodes since the southbound channel became a key route for mainland money into the city’s market.

The move is striking because southbound buying has been one of the strongest supports for Hong Kong stocks over the past year. Mainland funds poured into high-dividend banks, telecoms groups, energy companies and internet platforms during earlier phases of the rally, helping offset caution among global investors. That support is now weakening as domestic funds chase companies tied to AI infrastructure, chips, optical modules, software and computing power.

Onshore AI shares have delivered a stronger performance than Hong Kong’s technology benchmarks this year. The CSI Artificial Intelligence Index has risen sharply, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has lagged, weighed down by concerns over platform margins, heavy spending on AI models and pressure from subsidy battles in e-commerce and online services. The divergence has encouraged active money managers and retail traders to reassess whether Hong Kong-listed internet giants still offer the most attractive exposure to China’s technology story.

The change in flows also comes as Beijing’s industrial policy continues to favour advanced manufacturing, domestic semiconductors, large language models and high-end computing. Companies linked to AI servers, data centres, optical communications, robotics and chip design have become favoured market proxies for China’s effort to reduce dependence on foreign technology. That policy backdrop has helped support valuations even as questions persist over earnings visibility, capital expenditure demands and competition.

Cambricon Technologies, Zhongji Innolight, Kingsoft Office, iFlytek and other mainland-listed technology names have been among the companies watched closely by investors seeking domestic AI exposure. Hong Kong still hosts major technology groups such as Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan and Xiaomi, but the market’s heavyweight structure makes it more exposed to mature platform businesses than to the faster-growing AI hardware and infrastructure supply chain favoured by onshore traders.

Hong Kong’s role as a fundraising centre remains intact despite the outflow. The city has continued to attract listings from technology, healthcare, robotics and semiconductor-related companies, while mainland firms still view it as the most practical offshore venue for raising international capital. Several AI and chip-linked companies are preparing or considering Hong Kong share sales, suggesting the city remains central to China’s capital market architecture even as secondary-market money rotates elsewhere.

The weakness in southbound appetite also reflects broader caution over Hong Kong valuations after a strong earlier advance. Investors who bought the market for dividends and policy support are locking in gains while seeking higher-beta opportunities at home. The shift does not necessarily point to a structural rejection of Hong Kong stocks, but it does show that mainland money is becoming more selective after helping drive earlier momentum.

Regulatory pressure on offshore investment channels may also be influencing behaviour. Authorities have tightened scrutiny of unauthorised cross-border trading accounts and offshore brokerage activity, reinforcing the appeal of regulated domestic routes. While Stock Connect remains an approved mechanism, wider efforts to keep capital within supervised channels have added another layer of sensitivity around outbound allocations.

Market analysts say the key question is whether the AI-led onshore rally can broaden beyond a narrow group of highly valued companies. China’s AI supply chain is benefiting from state support, falling model costs and growing enterprise adoption, but investors face risks from crowded positioning, uneven profitability and rapid technological shifts. Several AI-linked companies still trade more on expectations than on proven earnings, leaving the sector vulnerable to volatility if sentiment turns.