Yen nears intervention line as dollar strengthens

Persistent dollar strength pushed the yen back towards 160 per US dollar on Wednesday, reviving concern that Tokyo may step into the foreign exchange market as renewed Gulf hostilities drove investors towards the US currency.

The yen traded near 159.92 per dollar in Asian dealings, close to the level widely viewed by traders as a possible trigger for official action. The move erased much of the currency’s rebound after Japan’s ¥11.7 trillion intervention campaign earlier this year, leaving markets alert to fresh warnings from the Ministry of Finance.

Dollar demand strengthened after renewed fighting in the Gulf raised fears of wider disruption to energy supplies and trade routes. The US currency benefited from its reserve status, while risk-sensitive currencies came under pressure. The dollar index held around 99.27, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and firm US labour indicators that have reduced expectations of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

Japan’s authorities have intensified verbal warnings as the yen weakens. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has said the government is ready to respond appropriately to excessive currency moves, language that traders typically read as a signal that intervention remains on the table. Officials have also stressed coordination with the United States, a politically sensitive point because unilateral currency action can draw scrutiny from trading partners.

The yen’s slide reflects a combination of external pressure and domestic policy constraints. Japan remains heavily dependent on imported energy, much of it priced in dollars. Higher oil prices therefore worsen the trade position and add pressure to household costs, while a weaker yen raises import bills further. Brent crude climbed towards $95 a barrel as Gulf tensions fed concerns over supplies, adding another layer of strain for Japan’s economy.

Attention is now focused on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, whose next policy signals will be watched closely ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting. Markets have increased bets that the central bank could raise interest rates from 0.75% to 1%, especially as imported inflation pressures build. Any move would mark a further step away from the ultra-loose policy framework that kept Japan’s rates far below those of other major economies for years.

Still, the Bank of Japan faces a difficult balance. A rate increase could support the yen and help restrain inflation expectations, but policymakers remain cautious about tightening too sharply while domestic demand stays uneven. Wage growth has improved, yet household purchasing power remains vulnerable to higher energy and food costs. A premature tightening cycle could hurt consumption just as companies pass on higher input costs.

The interest-rate gap with the United States remains central to the yen’s weakness. US policy rates are still high by comparison, keeping dollar assets attractive to global investors. Stronger US jobs data has strengthened the argument that the Federal Reserve may keep policy restrictive for longer, or even consider further tightening if inflation risks intensify. That has limited any relief for currencies trading against the dollar.

Other major currencies also softened. The euro slipped as investors assessed rising energy-driven inflation in the eurozone and the possibility of a European Central Bank rate increase at its June 11 meeting. Sterling edged lower, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars were weighed down by weaker risk appetite. Cryptocurrency markets also came under pressure as investors moved away from volatile assets.

For Japan, the 160 level carries market and political significance. Authorities intervened when the yen breached similar levels in 2024 and again used large-scale buying this year to slow the currency’s decline. The effectiveness of intervention, however, depends on whether monetary policy and global market conditions move in the same direction. Without a narrower yield gap or a broader fall in the dollar, direct yen purchases can lose impact quickly.