Takaichi poll slide raises yen and bond risks

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s falling public support is sharpening investor concern that her government may respond with tax cuts and heavier spending, adding pressure on the yen and Japan’s government bond market.

A July poll showed approval for Takaichi’s Cabinet dropping to 57% from 69% in June, as households grew more dissatisfied with rising living costs. Other surveys have also pointed to weakening support, though the level varies considerably among polling organisations.

The decline has placed greater scrutiny on the government’s economic strategy. Takaichi has defended an expansionary programme built around public and private investment in strategic industries, arguing that stronger productivity and economic growth will ultimately restore confidence in the currency.

Market strategists see a growing risk that weaker ratings could push the administration towards measures offering faster political relief. These could include reductions in consumption taxes, expanded subsidies or additional spending aimed at cushioning households from food and energy inflation.

Such steps may prove popular with voters but could unsettle investors unless the government provides a credible funding plan. Japan already carries one of the world’s largest public debt burdens, exceeding twice the size of its economy, while higher interest rates are raising the cost of servicing that debt.

The yen has been trading near 160 to the dollar, increasing the price of imported fuel, food and industrial materials. Its weakness has become a political problem because the benefits to exporters and tourism are being offset by pressure on household purchasing power.

Takaichi has rejected the argument that government policy alone determines exchange rates. She has said stronger investment, competitiveness and economic expansion are essential to rebuilding market trust, while acknowledging that currency movements reflect a range of domestic and international factors.

Investors remain sensitive to any indication that the government could pursue fiscal expansion while discouraging tighter monetary policy. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1% in June, the highest level in more than three decades, and economists expect another increase before the end of 2026 if inflation or yen weakness intensifies.

The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting while signalling that further tightening remains possible. Its challenge is to contain import-driven inflation without weakening an economy facing demographic pressures, soft consumption and a heavy public debt load.

More than four-fifths of economists surveyed this month expect the policy rate to reach 1.25% by December. A rise could support the yen by narrowing the interest-rate gap with the United States, but it would also put upward pressure on government borrowing costs.

Long-dated government bond yields have already climbed to levels not seen for decades. Traders are demanding higher returns as the central bank reduces its dominance of the bond market and investors reassess the sustainability of fiscal policy in an inflationary environment.

Takaichi’s growth blueprint envisages about ¥370 trillion in public and private investment through 2040 across 17 strategic sectors. Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, defence, energy security and advanced manufacturing are among the areas targeted for support.

The government says the programme will raise productivity, reduce vulnerabilities in critical supply chains and lift Japan’s underlying growth rate. Critics argue that its scale and financing remain insufficiently defined, increasing the possibility of additional bond issuance or pressure for higher taxes later.

A proposed temporary suspension of the consumption tax on food has emerged as a particularly sensitive issue. The measure could ease household costs but would also reduce government revenue unless accompanied by spending cuts or alternative funding.

Political pressure is building inside the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as lawmakers consider how to reverse the erosion in public confidence. Speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle has increased, although Takaichi has given no indication that she plans to retreat from her investment-led strategy.

Her political position remains stronger than the approval figures alone suggest. The Liberal Democratic Party secured a commanding majority in the February election, giving the government substantial room to pass legislation. However, falling popularity could make lawmakers less willing to support policies seen as worsening inflation or market instability.

Foreign-exchange traders are watching whether the government steps up verbal warnings or direct intervention to support the yen. Previous interventions have produced only temporary gains when they were not backed by a sustained change in interest-rate expectations or fiscal policy.

Japan’s large pool of domestic savings and the substantial holdings of government debt by local institutions continue to provide stability. The country also possesses sizeable foreign reserves and remains a major external creditor.