Foreign funds return to Vietnam as Hormuz fears ease

Foreign investors delivered their strongest one-day purchase of Vietnamese equities in nearly six years on 15 June, signalling a sharp improvement in risk appetite after fears over Middle East energy disruption eased.

Overseas funds bought a net US$160.4 million of Vietnamese shares on Monday, the largest daily inflow since 10 September 2020. The buying helped steady a market that had been under pressure from rising oil prices, global risk aversion and sustained foreign withdrawals despite Vietnam’s long-awaited move towards emerging-market status.

The VN-Index rose 0.43 per cent to 1,799.31 on Monday and moved back above the 1,800-point area on Tuesday, keeping the benchmark close to levels that still represent a strong annual advance even after a pullback over the past month. The shift was part of a wider rebound across Asian emerging markets after the United States and Iran agreed on terms aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over inflation and fuel costs.

The reversal is notable because foreign investors have remained net sellers of Vietnamese equities this year. Even after Monday’s inflow, overseas funds have sold about US$2.6 billion of Vietnamese stocks in 2026, following withdrawals of roughly US$4.8 billion last year. Those outflows reflected concerns over market concentration, heavy exposure to a few large-cap groups, tariff uncertainty, currency pressure and the impact of higher energy prices on a manufacturing-led economy.

“De-escalation in the Middle East and Vietnam’s own underperformance have created a textbook re-entry set-up for foreign capital,” said Quynh Cao, head of institutional business at VNDirect Securities. “Positioning was already tight and it does not take much to flip that.”

Vietnam’s appeal to global investors rests on more than a single trading session. FTSE Russell has confirmed that the country will be reclassified from frontier to secondary emerging-market status from 21 September, with inclusion in global equity indices to be phased through 2027. The upgrade is expected to bring passive inflows of about US$1.5 billion, with broader active flows potentially lifting the total to several billion dollars if market reforms continue.

The reclassification follows changes aimed at improving foreign access, including the removal of full pre-funding requirements for equity trades and the development of a global broker model. These reforms address long-standing obstacles for institutional investors, who had complained about settlement risk, limited access channels and operational frictions that made Vietnam harder to replicate within global index portfolios.

Large-cap names expected to draw attention include Vingroup, Masan Group, FPT Corp and Hoa Phat Group, alongside banks, securities firms, industrial stocks and consumer companies with sufficient liquidity and foreign room. Average daily trading value in Vietnamese equities this year has been around US$789 million, underscoring the market’s growing depth, though liquidity remains uneven across sectors.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive. Vietnam’s economy expanded 8.02 per cent in 2025, helped by strong exports, public investment, manufacturing activity and resilient consumption. Foreign direct investment disbursement rose to about US$27.6 billion last year, while exports reached roughly US$475 billion. Growth is expected to moderate this year, but projections still place Vietnam among Asia’s faster-growing economies.

Higher oil prices had complicated that outlook. Vietnam is exposed to imported fuel and energy costs, making any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz a direct risk to inflation, transport costs and factory margins. The drop in crude prices after the US-Iran accord helped restore confidence among investors looking at countries with strong structural growth but sensitivity to external shocks.

The market is not without vulnerabilities. Retail investors remain a major force in daily trading, making sentiment swings sharper when liquidity thins. Foreign ownership limits continue to constrain buying in some leading companies. Corporate governance, disclosure quality and settlement infrastructure also remain areas under watch as Vietnam seeks eventual MSCI emerging-market status.

Analysts say the latest inflow will need to be sustained before it can be treated as a durable turning point. A single large session can reflect short-covering, index positioning or tactical buying after a sell-off. A lasting reversal would require more consistent foreign participation, firmer currency conditions, stable oil prices and evidence that earnings growth can match valuations after the market’s strong run.