Trump shifts Iran strategy towards economic pressure

The Trump administration is intensifying economic pressure on Iran as Washington struggles to translate months of military operations into political concessions from Tehran. The strategy combines tighter sanctions, restrictions on oil exports and a renewed naval blockade while preserving the threat of further strikes.

President Donald Trump’s government appears increasingly focused on weakening Iran’s ability to finance the state, military forces and regional operations rather than relying primarily on sustained bombing. The shift comes as the conflict approaches six months with Iran’s leadership still resisting US demands and negotiations over a permanent settlement deadlocked.

Washington believes economic pressure may achieve leverage that military operations have so far failed to produce. More than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft have been targeted under the revived “maximum pressure” campaign, covering oil trading networks, financial channels, weapons procurement and shipping operations.

Iran’s oil income remains the central target because hydrocarbon exports provide Tehran with one of its most important sources of foreign currency. US officials are seeking to restrict those revenues through financial sanctions and maritime enforcement while making access to frozen assets and sanctions relief conditional on concessions.

The strategy carries significant risks. Iran has demonstrated that it can impose costs on Washington and its partners by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handled about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Shipping remains severely constrained as Tehran and Washington dispute who controls access.

An interim agreement reached in June was intended to terminate military operations and create a 60-day period for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief. The arrangement quickly unravelled. Trump declared the agreement over on July 7, while Tehran subsequently suspended it, leaving both governments accusing the other of violating commitments.

Iran says Washington failed to lift the blockade on its ports and release frozen assets. The US says Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts through intermediaries to revive the framework have made no measurable progress, keeping both economic warfare and military escalation on the table.

Pressure on US military resources has also influenced Washington’s calculations. More than 20 Navy warships and hundreds of aircraft have been committed to the conflict, while the Pentagon has faced questions about weapons inventories, maintenance requirements and the capacity to sustain operations across several regions simultaneously.

Particular attention has centred on air-defence interceptors and other high-demand munitions. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine has briefed the administration on the risks involved in drawing weapons from stockpiles assigned to other theatres. Trump has rejected suggestions that the US is running dangerously short of munitions, but the pressure on inventories has become part of the broader debate over how long intensive operations can continue.

The financial cost is adding another constraint. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told lawmakers the conflict has cost about $37.5 billion, alongside requests for tens of billions of dollars in additional funding. Eighteen US service members had been killed and roughly 430 wounded by late July, while casualties across Iran and Lebanon have run into the thousands.

Domestic opinion is also making a prolonged war politically difficult. Only 35 per cent of Americans supported the conflict in an August poll, while half expected the Middle East to become more chaotic and just 17 per cent believed it would become more stable. Rising fuel costs have reinforced voter concerns as Republicans prepare for November’s midterm elections.

Energy markets illustrate the competing pressures on both sides. Brent crude climbed as high as $126 a barrel during the conflict before retreating below $90 this week. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty, with attacks on shipping and reduced tanker traffic complicating expectations for Gulf supplies.

Tehran, however, has shown little sign of accepting Washington’s terms. Its leadership appears to calculate that controlling or disrupting Hormuz gives it leverage over global energy prices and increases the political cost of the war for Trump. At the same time, sanctions, military damage, inflation and pressure on state finances are testing Iran’s ability to sustain a prolonged confrontation.