Lucid flags tempered 2026 output growth

Lucid Group expects production growth in 2026 to moderate as it scales up its new Gravity sport utility vehicle and prepares a broader push into the midsize electric vehicle segment, cautioning that supply-chain risks and cost pressures could restrain expansion.

The California-based electric vehicle maker has begun increasing output of the Gravity SUV at its plant in Casa Grande, Arizona, positioning the model as a cornerstone of its next phase. Executives say the vehicle, aimed at the premium three-row SUV market, is central to improving volumes and margins, yet they acknowledge that component availability and logistics remain variables that could influence delivery schedules next year.

Lucid’s production in 2024 totalled just over 8,400 vehicles, with deliveries exceeding 10,000 units as the company worked through prior inventory. Guidance for 2025 has pointed to incremental growth rather than a sharp surge, reflecting a deliberate approach to managing working capital and aligning production with demand. For 2026, management has signalled that while volumes should rise, expansion will not be as steep as earlier investor expectations, largely because of persistent uncertainty in global supply chains and the pace of supplier ramp-ups for new platforms.

The Gravity SUV represents Lucid’s first major product addition since the launch of the Air sedan. Built on the company’s proprietary electric architecture, the SUV is designed to combine long driving range with higher interior capacity, a segment that has attracted strong consumer demand in North America and parts of the Middle East. Company executives have said early reservation data has been encouraging, but analysts note that scaling a new model brings operational challenges, particularly in securing battery modules, semiconductors and specialised components.

Leadership changes have also shaped Lucid’s strategic recalibration. Founder and long-time chief executive Peter Rawlinson stepped down from the top role earlier this year, transitioning to a technical advisory position. Marc Winterhoff, who has been serving as interim chief executive, has emphasised capital discipline and operational efficiency as priorities while the board searches for a permanent successor. Investors have interpreted the leadership shift as part of a broader effort to stabilise the company’s financial footing amid volatile electric vehicle demand.

Lucid continues to benefit from the backing of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which remains its largest shareholder. The sovereign wealth fund has provided multiple rounds of financing since Lucid’s public listing through a special purpose acquisition company in 2021. That support has enabled the company to fund research and development for its upcoming midsize platform, which is expected to underpin more affordable models aimed at expanding its addressable market beyond the luxury segment.

The midsize architecture, slated for introduction later this year with production targeted thereafter, is seen as critical to Lucid’s long-term competitiveness. Industry analysts argue that the premium sedan and SUV categories alone cannot deliver the scale needed to achieve sustainable profitability. Entering the midsize segment would place Lucid in more direct competition with established electric models from Tesla, BMW and other global manufacturers, intensifying pricing pressures but potentially unlocking higher volumes.

Supply-chain concerns remain a recurring theme across the automotive sector. Although semiconductor shortages that plagued manufacturers in 2021 and 2022 have eased, executives across the industry continue to cite risks tied to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and raw material volatility. For electric vehicle makers, access to battery cells and critical minerals such as lithium and nickel remains a strategic priority. Lucid has sought to mitigate these risks by diversifying suppliers and investing in in-house technology development, including powertrain components and battery pack design.

Market conditions present another layer of complexity. Electric vehicle demand growth has moderated in several major markets as higher interest rates and price competition weigh on consumer purchasing decisions. Tesla has adjusted prices multiple times over the past year, putting pressure on peers to balance volume and margin. Traditional automakers are also recalibrating their electric roll-out plans, with some delaying capacity expansions to better match demand trends.

Lucid’s management has indicated that controlling cash burn will be central to its 2026 outlook. The company has posted net losses since its public debut, reflecting heavy capital expenditure and limited scale. By tempering production growth forecasts, executives aim to avoid overextending manufacturing capacity while the Gravity ramp stabilises and the midsize programme advances toward launch.