Houthis place Saudi shipping under new management

Yemen’s Houthi movement has declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, adding another unofficial customs authority to one of the world’s busiest and most heavily armed stretches of water.
Military spokesperson Yahya Saree announced on Monday that the measure would take effect immediately, apparently concluding that international shipping had enjoyed far too much clarity about which sea lane might be attacked next. The group said vessels carrying Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be targeted under an “eye for an eye” policy, now adapted for tankers, bulk carriers and insurance underwriters.

No operational details accompanied the announcement. Shipping companies were therefore invited to determine for themselves whether the blockade was a military campaign, a warning, a negotiating position or a strongly worded maritime out-of-office message.

The threat places Saudi crude shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu at risk while pressure is already building around the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh has relied on its East-West Pipeline to move oil from fields near the Gulf to the Red Sea, allowing exports to bypass disruption around Hormuz. The Houthis have now proposed closing the emergency exit while the main entrance remains surrounded by missiles.

Up to 3 million barrels a day could require alternative routes if the threat is enforced. Tankers may be forced around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to voyages and large sums to freight and insurance costs. Oil traders responded in their traditional manner by carefully examining the danger before immediately converting it into a price chart.

The blockade announcement followed renewed fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia after a four-year period of relative calm. Houthi missiles were fired towards the kingdom after the group accused Saudi forces of striking Sanaa International Airport to prevent an aircraft carrying Houthi officials from landing.

Saudi-led forces said the airport action was intended to stop an Iranian flight. The Houthis described it as part of a long blockade imposed on Yemen and presented their maritime measure as retaliation. Regional diplomacy, having spent years encouraging both sides to avoid escalation, was informed that its subscription had expired.

Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi had already warned that Saudi oil installations, airports and other strategic facilities could be targeted if Riyadh deepened its involvement in Yemen. The movement possesses missiles and drones capable of reaching key sites inside the kingdom, although years of war and international interception efforts have placed pressure on its weapons stocks.

The threat nonetheless carries weight because the Houthis have demonstrated an ability to disrupt commercial shipping with comparatively inexpensive weapons. Since late 2023, their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have forced major operators to reroute vessels around southern Africa, turning global logistics into a prolonged demonstration of how a low-cost drone can generate a high-cost invoice.

The Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and serves as a gateway to the Suez Canal. Roughly 12 per cent of global trade normally passes through the broader route. Its strategic importance has encouraged a diverse collection of navies, militias and governments to protect freedom of navigation by placing enough weaponry nearby to make navigation visibly less free.

Saudi Arabia has warned that it will respond firmly to any attempt to enforce the blockade. The kingdom has spent several years trying to reduce direct confrontation with the Houthis while supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Riyadh has also sought to prevent wider regional conflicts from undermining its economic diversification plans, tourism ambitions and carefully cultivated image as a place where investors can enjoy stability between missile alerts.

The Houthis, meanwhile, remain aligned with Iran and form part of Tehran’s network of armed regional partners. Their declaration came as confrontation involving Iran and the United States placed additional strain on oil supply routes. Tehran had warned that attacks on its infrastructure could lead to disruption at other strategic waterways, raising the prospect of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb becoming unavailable at the same time.

Energy analysts have warned that a sustained interruption could push oil prices sharply higher. Estimates under severe disruption scenarios have placed crude at between $115 and $120 a barrel, figures welcomed by nobody except producers, traders and economists who had already prepared television interviews explaining why consumers should remain calm.

Commercial shipowners are now assessing vessel ownership, cargo origin, destination, chartering arrangements and any corporate relationship that might attract Houthi attention. This process requires companies to study a targeting policy that remains undefined, changeable and apparently administered through televised statements.