Scepticism over over Doha parleys

M A Hossain

Recent peace talks in Doha, Qatar, in the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have reignited a glimmer of hope of a temporary respite. Led by mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, these negotiations aim to broker a long-awaited ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. However, scepticism surrounds the talks, particularly because Hamas, the organization governing Gaza, is notably absent from the table. Hamas insists that any ceasefire must follow the roadmap proposed by US President Joe Biden on May 31, 2023. This roadmap outlines a three-step process aimed at reducing violence, exchanging prisoners, and rebuilding Gaza.

Biden’s plan is a strategic proposal developed in coordination with Israel. The first step requires the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza over six weeks, during which Hamas would release additional Israeli hostages taken during the October 7 attack. Simultaneously, Israel would free some Palestinian prisoners. The second phase involves the full release of all Israeli hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli military forces from Gaza. The third and final phase includes the reconstruction of Gaza, prioritizing housing for those whose homes have been destroyed, as well as providing additional relief to civilians affected by the conflict.

The Biden administration believes that successful implementation of this roadmap could prevent Iran from directly intervening, thereby avoiding a broader regional conflict. The hope is that temporary relief from violence will provide a foundation for future peace efforts. However, this optimism is overshadowed by a complex web of regional dynamics and unresolved grievances that have perpetuated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades.

Recent incidents further complicate the situation, notably the killings of prominent leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, which have heightened tensions. On July 31, Ismail Haniya, Hamas’ political leader, was reportedly killed in a covert operation in Tehran, Iran’s capital. On the same day, Fuad Shukur, a senior commander of Hezbollah, was assassinated in Lebanon. Hamas and Iran have both accused Israel of orchestrating these assassinations. While Israel confirmed Shukur’s killing, it has denied involvement in Haniya’s death. These incidents have created a volatile atmosphere, as both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate, raising the risk of a wider regional war.

Iran’s pledge to respond to Haniya’s death, combined with Hezbollah’s promise of revenge, has placed the entire region on edge. There is growing concern that a larger-scale conflict could erupt at any moment, with Israel as the primary target. In response, the United States, along with its European allies—France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—has sought to prevent such an escalation. These nations issued a joint statement warning Iran against attacking Israel, emphasizing that any aggression could trigger a major regional security crisis. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran has maintained its right to retaliate for what it views as an unprovoked attack on its ally.

Beyond the high-level geopolitical manoeuvres and strategic interests, the human cost of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is profound, particularly in Gaza. The ongoing Israeli airstrikes and military operations have resulted in the deaths of countless Palestinian civilians. Gaza, already suffering from a blockade and economic hardships, has seen its infrastructure further devastated by repeated Israeli bombardments. Schools, hospitals, and homes have been reduced to rubble, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.

The killing of Ismail Haniya, whether by Israel or other actors, has only intensified the suffering of the Palestinian people. Amidst the violence, civilians—women, children, and the elderly—continue to bear the brunt of the conflict. International organizations and humanitarian groups have called for an immediate ceasefire to allow aid to reach those in need, but Israel has thus far shown little inclination to halt its military operations.

One of the fundamental challenges in achieving peace in the Middle East is the deep-seated mistrust between the parties involved. Israel and Hamas, as well as their respective allies, have been locked in cycles of violence for decades. Attempts at ceasefires or peace agreements have repeatedly broken down, often due to provocations, miscommunications, or the refusal of one side to compromise on critical issues such as borders, settlements, and the status of Jerusalem.

The United States, while trying to play the role of mediator, has historically been seen as biased toward Israel, undermining its credibility in the eyes of many Palestinians and their supporters. Nonetheless, Washington’s involvement remains crucial, as the US has significant leverage over Israel, particularly in terms of military aid and diplomatic support. The success of the current talks in Doha largely depends on whether the US can pressure Israel to abide by the terms of the ceasefire and allow meaningful reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

At the same time, regional powers like Iran and Turkey, both of which support Hamas, must also be engaged in any long-term peace process. Without their buy-in, any ceasefire agreement risks being short-lived. Iran, in particular, has significant influence over both Hamas and Hezbollah, and its involvement will be crucial in preventing further escalation.

The Palestinian struggle for self-determination remains at the core of the conflict. For Palestinians, peace cannot merely be the cessation of hostilities but must also include justice—an end to the occupation, the recognition of Palestinian sovereignty, and the right of return for refugees. Any peace agreement that fails to address these fundamental issues will not hold, as it will be seen as legitimizing Israel’s continued control over Palestinian land and resources.

International support for Palestinian rights has grown in recent years, with many civil society groups, human rights organizations, and even governments calling for an end to the occupation and the establishment of a viable, independent Palestinian state. These voices argue that sustainable peace in the Middle East is only possible if the Palestinian people are given the same rights and freedoms that others in the region enjoy.

As peace talks unfold in Doha, the world watches to see whether they will bring temporary relief or pave the way for a more lasting resolution. While the Biden roadmap offers a structured plan for de-escalation, its success depends on the willingness of all parties—Israel, Hamas, and their regional allies—to engage in genuine dialogue and compromise. However, the road to peace in the Middle East is fraught with challenges, and the deep historical, political, and social divisions between Israelis and Palestinians cannot be ignored. Peace, if it comes, will require not only diplomatic efforts but also a commitment to justice and equality for the Palestinian people.