Bangladesh on edge of security collapse

By Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury

Bangladesh is entering one of the most dangerous phases of its history. At the centre of this looming crisis is the unelected regime of Muhammad Yunus, which is presenting itself abroad as democratic and reformist while systematically dismantling the country’s defence and intelligence structure.

Behind the veneer of Nobel fame and global endorsements lies a far darker reality: Yunus’ growing alignment with Islamist radicals, foreign actors, and transnational networks that aim to transform Bangladesh into a hub for jihadist operations. If successful, this project would not only destroy Bangladesh’s sovereignty but also destabilize South Asia and export militancy across the globe.

Yunus’ image as a global humanitarian has shielded him from meaningful scrutiny. His ties with influential figures in Washington, Brussels, and London – from the Clinton Foundation to George Soros’ networks – give him legitimacy abroad. Domestically, however, his administration is empowering Islamist elements, suppressing secular voices, and hollowing out state institutions.

The real project is clear: dismantle the secular Bangladesh Army and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), and replace them with an Iranian-style “Islamic Revolutionary Army” (IRA) controlled by ideologues loyal to jihadist politics. Such a shift would institutionalize extremism inside the state and create a new sanctuary for transnational terrorism.

The Yunus regime is increasingly mirroring Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian tactics. Dozens of journalists face fabricated charges, independent media outlets are censored or co-opted, while Islamist propagandists enjoy unchecked freedom.

International watchdogs note a troubling trend: secular critics are punished while extremist groups linked to Al Qaeda, ISIS, Hizb ut-Tahrir, and Hamas are expanding their activities – in some cases, under state patronage.

The case of Jashimuddin Rahmani, the cleric behind Ansar Al-Islam, illustrates the danger. He openly encouraged killing secular writers and even American citizens. Yet Yunus’ regime permits such radicals to operate with impunity, while Western rights groups maintain a silence that amounts to complicity.

The geopolitical backdrop further complicates the picture. Saudi Arabia’s growing defence alignment with Pakistan introduces a dangerous variable. Riyadh has historically funded Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions, and speculation grows that it may now seek protection under Islamabad’s “nuclear umbrella”.

Yet Pakistan is no reliable partner. Its decades-long ties with Tehran make it a possible gateway for Iranian infiltration into the Kingdom. Worse, Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex thrives on exporting instability. Just as Pakistan helped destabilize Afghanistan, it could drag Saudi Arabia into similar chaos, undermining the monarchy itself.

Although the Saudi rulers may feel delighted with this new arrangement, it overlooks several crucial factors. First, Islamabad has decades-old, deep-rooted relations with Tehran, and its renewed ties with Riyadh could open the door for Iran to expand its espionage network within the Kingdom through active collaboration with Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

At the same time, Pakistan – a country grappling with acute economic crises – may push the Kingdom toward the fate of Afghanistan, where Pakistan’s infiltration ultimately turned the country into a rogue state and epicentre of Islamist terror. Furthermore, this development could mark the beginning of a silent regime change plot that might one day end monarchism and create an atmosphere of anarchy and chaos. With these troubling prospects in mind, Saudi Arabia and its ruling elites may well have committed a historic blunder – one that could spell the beginning of the end of a century of monarchism in the Kingdom.

For Islamabad – crippled by economic crises – mere financial perks from Riyadh will not suffice. Instead, Islamabad is likely to push the Kingdom into an alarming situation by collaborating with Islamists and jihadists, while simultaneously increasing the threats from Iran by secretly providing Tehran with sensitive information about Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment thrives on exporting instability. In time, it could push Saudi Arabia towards the fate of Afghanistan – an arena of Islamist chaos where Pakistan was the chief manipulator. The monarchy may have unwittingly paved the way for its own destabilization.

Dhaka’s deepening ties with Islamabad under Yunus only add to this dangerous mix. The ISI views Bangladesh as a potential launchpad for cross-border terrorism into India, while Washington sees the country as a pawn in its competition with China over Myanmar. In this volatile chessboard, Bangladesh risks becoming the sacrificial ground for competing regional and global agendas.

The Bangladesh Army and DGFI have long been the main bulwark against Islamist militancy. They dismantled the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), crushed Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB), and neutralised outfits like HuJI-B, Ansar Al-Islam, and Hizb ut-Tahrir – most of which were nurtured by Pakistan’s ISI.

For India, DGFI’s success has been a shield against infiltration in its northeast. For Bangladesh, it preserved sovereignty. For Yunus and his Islamist allies, these institutions are therefore the greatest obstacle. Their strategy is simple: discredit the military, prosecute its counterterrorism leadership under bogus “war crimes” charges, and replace the command structure with ideologically loyal cadres.

Already, smear campaigns are being directed against General Waker Uz Zaman, the Army Chief, accusing him of bias and duplicity. At the same time, there are attempts to isolate the Bangladesh Armed Forces from UN peacekeeping missions, depriving them of international credibility and revenue.