Pepsi Rolex prices surge before watch fair

Prices for one of Rolex’s most recognisable sports models have climbed sharply on the secondary market, as collectors position themselves ahead of a major annual watch industry showcase that often sets the tone for production shifts and new releases.

The stainless steel Rolex GMT-Master II with its distinctive red-and-blue “Pepsi” bezel has seen renewed demand among traders and enthusiasts, with resale values edging higher across leading watch exchanges and dealer networks. Market participants say the movement reflects a mix of constrained supply, speculation over potential changes to the model line-up, and broader resilience in high-end watch collecting despite uneven luxury spending trends.

Dealers tracking transactions indicate that prices for newer references of the Pepsi GMT-Master II have firmed after a period of relative stabilisation. The model, long associated with aviation heritage and dual time-zone functionality, has remained one of Rolex’s most sought-after pieces, often commanding premiums above retail due to waiting lists at authorised dealers.

Industry analysts point to anticipation surrounding Watches and Wonders, where major Swiss manufacturers traditionally unveil new models or discontinue existing ones. Such announcements can have immediate effects on secondary markets, particularly when collectors expect limited production runs or design changes that could enhance the rarity of current versions.

The Pepsi bezel variant, introduced in its modern ceramic form in 2018, revived a colour scheme that dates back to the mid-20th century. Its combination of stainless steel construction and iconic aesthetic has broadened its appeal beyond traditional collectors to younger buyers entering the luxury watch market. That shift has contributed to sustained demand even as macroeconomic pressures have weighed on discretionary spending in other luxury segments.

Market data from watch trading platforms suggests that while overall prices for some luxury timepieces cooled after peaks seen during the pandemic-era surge, flagship models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet have shown relative stability. The Pepsi GMT-Master II, in particular, has retained a strong following due to its recognisability and perceived investment value.

Traders say speculation is being driven by rumours that Rolex could adjust production volumes or introduce updated variations. While the company is known for incremental evolution rather than radical redesign, even minor changes can shift collector sentiment. The possibility of alterations to bracelet options, dial configurations or movement upgrades has been enough to prompt buying interest.

The dynamics reflect a broader pattern in the secondary watch market, where scarcity and narrative often drive price movements as much as intrinsic features. Limited availability at retail level has historically fuelled premiums for models like the GMT-Master II, Submariner and Daytona, reinforcing Rolex’s position as a benchmark for liquidity in the pre-owned segment.

Some analysts caution that the current price uptick may be short-lived if supply conditions improve or if new releases dilute demand for existing references. Others argue that the Pepsi model’s heritage and global recognition provide a buffer against sharp corrections, particularly as collectors continue to favour steel sports watches over more niche complications.

Retail conditions also play a role. Authorised dealers have tightened distribution practices in recent years, prioritising long-term clients and discouraging speculative flipping. That has reduced immediate availability and pushed more buyers into the secondary market, where prices are determined by real-time demand.

At the same time, digital platforms have increased transparency in pricing, allowing buyers to compare listings across regions. This has contributed to more efficient price discovery but has also amplified momentum during periods of heightened interest, such as the lead-up to major industry events.

The broader luxury sector has shown mixed signals, with some categories experiencing slower growth amid economic uncertainty and shifting consumer priorities. Watches, however, have retained a distinct position as both functional objects and collectible assets, attracting a global base of enthusiasts.

For Rolex, maintaining exclusivity while meeting demand remains a delicate balance. The company has expanded production capacity in recent years, yet continues to limit output relative to demand, preserving the perception of scarcity that underpins its brand value.