Is tech overpriced or is it the only thing growing?

The dominance of the Magnificent 7 now defines the shape of global markets. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s total value, up from about 12% a decade ago.

Their performance has lifted the index even as most of the remaining companies have moved sideways. The question for investors is whether these firms are overvalued or whether they are the only part of the global economy still delivering real growth.

The data points one way. Between 2015 and 2024, the Magnificent 7 rose by more than 700% compared with less than 150% for the rest of the index. In 2023 alone, they gained around 70% while the S&P 500 as a whole rose about 24%. Their combined earnings this year are expected to grow by roughly 14%, compared with about 3% for the other 493 companies.

By historic measures, valuations in the sector are demanding. Yet these firms are not speculative outliers.

They provide the infrastructure for modern productivity, communication, and AI. They underpin the digital systems that drive energy, healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. Their scale and relevance make them central to how the world’s economy functions.

Technology has become the foundation of global growth rather than a segment within it. That shift makes comparisons with past market cycles less meaningful. These firms generate large and predictable cash flows, enjoy operating margins above 30%, and are reinvesting at levels that most other sectors cannot match. High valuations reflect the scarcity of reliable earnings growth in a slow global economy.

The dominance of the Magnificent 7 does create concentration risk. When seven companies represent such a large share of the market, the performance of the entire index becomes heavily dependent on their results.

If investor sentiment weakens or earnings guidance falls short, the wider market follows. Recent trading sessions have shown that sensitivity clearly.

Prudent investors should avoid excessive exposure while maintaining core positions. Selectivity is vital. Diversification across semiconductors, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure helps reduce reliance on a handful of firms.

The aim should be to stay exposed to long-term tech growth without building a portfolio around a single theme.

The wider economic backdrop explains why capital continues to concentrate in technology. Productivity growth in developed markets remains weak, and corporate profits outside the sector have been flat.

Higher borrowing costs, rising taxes, and muted consumer demand are all holding back traditional industries. Against that environment, technology remains the only consistent source of earnings expansion and margin resilience.

AI has intensified this trend. Global spending on AI systems and infrastructure is set to exceed 400 billion dollars next year, up from about 240 billion in 2023. Companies investing in the technologies that enable that shift are driving a new cycle of capital expenditure. The benefits are already visible in stronger revenue growth across software and hardware producers.

None of this means that valuations can rise indefinitely. The sector’s rapid appreciation has already compressed future returns, and greater competition is emerging.

Regulation will also shape how these firms operate as governments look more closely at market power, data use, and taxation. Investors should expect more volatility even if the long-term direction remains upward.

The rational approach is to recognise both the strength and the risk. The Magnificent 7 have become the main drivers of index performance, but they cannot carry global markets alone.

Over time, other areas such as healthcare, clean energy, and industrial automation may begin to capture more of the growth narrative. Until that happens, tech will continue to dominate flows and investor attention.

The core issue is not whether the sector is overvalued, but why it commands such a premium. In a world of low productivity and constrained fiscal space, tech is still generating new value at scale. These companies are expensive because they are growing when most others are not.

Investors who understand that balance can maintain exposure without overreliance. Tech will remain central to portfolios because it continues to lead earnings growth and global innovation. Prices may fluctuate, but the structural story is unchanged.

The firms shaping digital infrastructure and AI remain the primary engines of expansion in an otherwise subdued global economy.