Dubai tourism recovery gathers pace with flight returns

Dubai’s tourism sector is poised for a stronger final quarter of 2026 as international airlines restore services and additional capacity, providing a critical boost to hotel demand ahead of the winter travel season.
The improvement in air connectivity is expected to lift hotel occupancy after a difficult first half marked by disruption to regional aviation and weaker international arrivals. Emirates has restored about 85 per cent of its pre-conflict capacity and continues to add flights, strengthening access to markets that traditionally contribute heavily to Dubai’s premium hotel segment.

Several overseas airlines are also preparing to return during the autumn and winter timetable. British Airways has scheduled Dubai services to resume from October 25, while Cathay Pacific plans to restart passenger flights to Dubai on the same date. Finnair is expected to resume its seasonal Dubai operation in October. Lufthansa and SWISS have scheduled their Dubai return from September, while other carriers are progressively rebuilding regional networks.

The renewed capacity is increasingly important because Dubai’s hotel industry entered 2026 from a record base. The emirate welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, its third consecutive annual record, while Dubai International Airport handled 95.2 million passengers, the highest annual total in its history.

Regional instability subsequently interrupted that momentum. Dubai International handled about 26.6 million passengers during the first five months of 2026 as airspace restrictions, flight suspensions and reduced overseas capacity affected traffic. Hotel occupancy averaged 56.4 per cent during the first half, while average daily room rates declined 7 per cent to Dh701.

Hotel operators nevertheless avoided widespread aggressive discounting, indicating confidence that demand could recover once airline networks were rebuilt. Average room rates proved more resilient than occupancy, helping properties protect revenue while waiting for international traffic to normalise.

The recovery is becoming visible across the hospitality industry. Accor, one of the world’s largest hotel groups, said Dubai returned to year-on-year growth in July after the Middle East conflict weighed heavily on its regional business during the second quarter. Improving occupancy across the UAE has added to expectations that the sharpest impact on hospitality demand has passed.

Hotels are now preparing for a stronger peak season. Properties have used the comparatively quieter summer period to refurbish rooms, improve public areas and strengthen staffing before international leisure traffic rises. Industry expectations point to greater momentum from late summer, with some operators anticipating fourth-quarter occupancy and overall business approaching the levels achieved during 2025.

Hotel occupancy across Dubai is projected to reach between 60.4 per cent and 66.2 per cent by the end of 2026. Average daily rates are expected to range from Dh600 to Dh675. Full-year averages will remain below last year’s record performance because of the severe weakness experienced during the first half.

Dubai’s hospitality inventory has also continued to evolve despite softer demand. The market had roughly 152,140 hotel rooms across 727 properties by mid-2026. Three hotels opened during the first six months, although temporary closures and refurbishment programmes meant total available supply was slightly lower than at the end of 2025.

The timing of airline resumptions could determine how quickly occupancy strengthens. Several carriers have concentrated their return around the late-October start of the northern hemisphere winter schedule, creating the prospect of a substantial increase in international seats just as Dubai enters its strongest leisure travel period. Britain remains particularly important after accounting for 6.3 million passengers at Dubai International last year, while India generated 11.9 million and Saudi Arabia 7.5 million.

Premium hotels may benefit disproportionately because long-haul visitors generally stay longer and spend more on accommodation, dining and leisure services. Dubai’s strategy also relies on events, retail, beach tourism and business travel to sustain demand beyond traditional holiday periods.