Hormuz traffic stays thin as diplomacy falters

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained as faltering diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran deepen uncertainty over one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Only eight vessels were tracked transiting the strait on Tuesday, compared with a 10-day average of about 12. Seven entered through Iranian waters and only one, a coal carrier, exited. The figures followed an even quieter Monday, when six vessels passed through the waterway against a 10-day average of about 11.

Monday’s traffic included four vessels entering the strait. Two were empty oil-product tankers. Two ships left the Gulf through Hormuz, including a small tanker carrying liquefied petroleum gas and another transporting residual fuel.

The scale of the slowdown is stark compared with conditions before the conflict. About 130 to 140 vessels typically crossed the strait each day before the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28 triggered war and a sharp restriction of commercial navigation.

Oil and petroleum-product movements have been hit particularly hard. About 20.9 million barrels a day passed through Hormuz during the first half of 2025, equivalent to roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. By the second quarter of 2026, flows had fallen to an estimated 4.9 million barrels a day, compared with 21.6 million barrels daily in the final quarter of 2025.

The prolonged disruption has increased pressure on energy markets because the strait remains the primary maritime export route for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain and Iran. It is also crucial for liquefied natural gas shipments, particularly those originating in Qatar.

Brent crude climbed towards $90 a barrel on Wednesday as traders assessed the possibility that restrictions could persist. Brent was around $89.63 a barrel during early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was near $83.91. Prices had already recorded a sharp rise earlier in the week as expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough weakened.

Negotiations have become more difficult after Washington and Tehran introduced additional demands. Iran has linked a full reopening of the strait to concessions from the United States, including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and compensation linked to the war.

US President Donald Trump has responded by demanding compensation from Tehran for what he describes as decades of damage caused by Iran and groups supported by the country. The competing financial claims have complicated attempts by intermediaries to turn earlier understandings into a durable settlement.

Oman remains central to efforts to establish a workable arrangement for commercial shipping. Tehran and Muscat have been discussing revised navigation arrangements, including shipping lanes designed to allow greater movement through the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said those discussions have reached their final stages.

Progress on maritime arrangements, however, does not necessarily amount to a broader political settlement. Iran has maintained that it is not conducting direct negotiations with Washington, with messages passing through intermediaries.

Security risks around the Gulf have also increased. Commercial vessels continue to operate under heightened military scrutiny, while attacks and interceptions have added another layer of uncertainty for shipowners and insurers. The United States has deployed substantial naval forces in and around the region while maintaining restrictions on shipping linked to Iranian ports.

The maritime threat is no longer confined to Hormuz. Violence around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, has raised concerns that disruption could simultaneously affect two of the principal routes linking Gulf energy exporters and Asian markets with Europe.

Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has nevertheless held up more strongly. Around 30 vessels crossed the waterway on Tuesday, above a 10-day average of about 25, suggesting that some shipping activity has continued despite heightened security concerns.

The Hormuz disruption has forced energy producers and importing countries to rely more heavily on inventories, pipelines and alternative suppliers. The bulk of oil exported through the strait traditionally travels to Asian markets, with China, India and Japan among the largest destinations.

Alternative pipelines can bypass Hormuz for part of Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s exports, but available capacity remains far below the volumes normally transported through the waterway. Qatar’s LNG exports face even fewer alternatives because virtually all seaborne shipments must pass through the strait.