XRP rally hopes rise despite legislative uncertainty

XRP entered August trading near $1.06, with investors weighing strong institutional demand against fading expectations that US lawmakers will pass landmark cryptocurrency legislation before the congressional recess.

The token remains about 71% below the record of roughly $3.66 reached in July 2025, when regulatory optimism and expectations of exchange-traded fund approvals drove a sharp market advance. Its subdued price has prompted debate over whether institutional accumulation is preparing the ground for another breakout or merely cushioning a prolonged downturn.

Bullish analysts argue that XRP is consolidating within a narrow range after months of selling pressure. They view the expansion of regulated investment products, declining exchange balances and broader use of the XRP Ledger as potential catalysts for a sustained recovery.

That outlook carries substantial risk. The cryptocurrency has repeatedly failed to maintain rallies above key technical levels, while weak market liquidity and uncertainty surrounding US digital asset legislation continue to restrict investor appetite.

XRP was trading at about $1.059 on Monday. The price has remained close to the $1 level despite cumulative inflows of more than $1.5 billion into US spot XRP exchange-traded funds by early March. Five such products held more than 769 million tokens in custody at that stage.

The inflows mark a significant shift in XRP’s investor base. Regulated funds allow asset managers, family offices and other professional investors to gain exposure without directly managing digital wallets or using cryptocurrency exchanges.

However, the gap between fund demand and token performance suggests that inflows alone have not been sufficient to overcome broader selling. XRP ended 2025 near $1.83 before declining through the opening months of 2026. It traded above $2.30 in January but later fell as the wider digital asset market weakened.

The CLARITY Act has become another central element of the bullish case. The proposed law is designed to establish clearer jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while setting disclosure and registration requirements for digital asset businesses.

Supporters say a defined market structure could encourage banks, payment companies and institutional investors to expand cryptocurrency operations. XRP could benefit because of its association with cross-border payments and because legal uncertainty surrounding Ripple’s token sales has diminished.

The legislation passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by 294 votes to 134 and later advanced through a Senate committee. Yet its prospects have weakened amid disagreements over political ethics, stablecoin rewards, decentralised finance and consumer protection.

The Senate would need substantial bipartisan support to move the measure forward. Lawmakers are also dealing with competing legislative priorities ahead of the midterm elections, raising the possibility that the bill will be delayed or rewritten.

The changing outlook has complicated forecasts linking XRP directly to the law’s passage. Predictions of an immediate surge assume that regulatory clarity would unlock significant institutional capital, but markets may already have priced in part of that expectation.

Ripple has nevertheless continued building infrastructure aimed at professional financial institutions. Its acquisition of prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion expanded the company’s reach across cryptocurrency and traditional markets. The business, renamed Ripple Prime, says it clears more than $3 trillion annually and serves over 300 institutional customers.

Ripple has also promoted its dollar-backed stablecoin, RLUSD, for settlement and collateral use. The company expects its prime brokerage and payments operations to create additional demand for services built around the XRP Ledger, although that does not automatically translate into sustained purchases of XRP.

The end of Ripple’s long-running dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission removed a major source of uncertainty. Both sides dismissed their appeals in August 2025, leaving in place a $125 million civil penalty connected to institutional sales of XRP.

That resolution helped clear the way for regulated investment products. It also strengthened arguments that XRP has a more defined legal position than many smaller tokens, though regulatory treatment can vary depending on how and where an asset is sold.

Technical analysts are watching the $1 area as a key support zone. A decisive move above resistance around $1.20 to $1.30 could attract short-term momentum traders, while a break below $1 could expose the token to deeper losses.