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By Nitya Chakraborty

U.S. President Donald Trump finally rescheduled his much awaited visit to China on May 14 and 15 by announcing in his Truth Social there by creating big interest in the diplomatic circles about the possibility of a sort of ceasefire in the current West Asian war before the scheduled trip to Beijing. Earlier Trump was scheduled to visit China on March31- April 2 but he postponed that by talking to the Chinese President Xi Jinping about his preoccupation in the Iran war.

This rescheduling of the crucial visit of the US President in the midst of the continuing war in West Asia as also the peace moves by Trump, underlines how much importance Trump gives to the US relations with China. Trump is anxious to meet Xi Jinping as early as possible. He does not want to create any uncertainty even during the present war situation about the coming visit. So he announced the rescheduling on Wednesday saying “I look forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event”.

Interestingly, for the last few days, the Chinese foreign ministry sources and the official media have been talking of the need for close collaboration between USA and China in every sphere, especially economic while maintaining the position that US has violated the UN regulations and the international rules by attacking Iran . China has been in touch with the Iranian officials, especially the Iranian foreign minister and has been advocating for a dialogue to end the war. In the last two days, the interaction has been more in the context of the 15 point peace plan proposed by Trump and Tehran’s counter proposal. China has also refused Trump’s request to help in the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz.

Significantly, one day after the announcement by Trump of his rescheduled visit to China on May 14 and 15, Chinese official daily Global Times has come out with an editorial on Thursday, March 26 saying” History has repeatedly shown that both China and the US stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. China has emphasized on many occasions that the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right. If that button is misaligned, all subsequent efforts will go astray. China’s policy toward the US has remained consistent, stable, and predictable, emphasizing mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, and serving as a steady and reliable force for improving bilateral relations. Washington needs to make greater efforts to discard its biases toward China, better understand China’s realities, and recognize the long-term trajectory of China’s economic and social development.”

The focus is more on business and trade cooperation from Chinese perspective. GTsays, the business communities and civil organizations of China and the US have maintained close communication, and the people from both countries share a strong desire for mutual understanding and friendly interaction. Hopefully, US policymakers will spend more time visiting and observing China firsthand. Only when “seeing what’s happening in China” becomes action rather than advice can US decision-makers shed arrogance, correct biases, and recalibrate their perceptions through direct engagement.

As things stand now, China watchers say that Trump will try to get maximum concessions on key minerals needed for semi conductor and other high tech industries in USA and in the process, he may give some political concessions to China on Taiwan. Both Japan and Taiwan are worried at this. The new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in her recent meeting with President Trump in the White House did not get the support on Taiwan issue which she expected, though officially Japanese officials said that Japan was on the same page as the US regarding Taiwan. s

Diplomatic row between Japan and China escalated this week after a Japanese army officer was accused of breaking into the Chinese embassy in Tokyo, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing. China went on to describe the incident as a “forceful break-in” by an active-duty officer of the Japan Self-Defence Forces. Japan also official lodged protest at the Chinese stance.

The incident took place at a time when ties between China and Japan have deteriorated in recent months. The main catalyst for the downfall was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about the self-ruled island of Taiwan last November. The arch-conservative leader, only elected in October last year, suggested that Japan may use military intervention if China were to attack Taiwan. Trump took exception to this stand of Takaichi and asked her for restraint vis a vis China on the issue of mentioning Taiwan. That way, both Taiwan and Japan are waiting with anxiety at the outcome of Trump-Xi talks in mid May this year. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

It is a history of twists and turns in India-China economic relations for decades. The same is being repeated now as India after taking special measures to make Chinese direct investment easier and agreeing to start border trade from three points in this country from June this year, is faced with the prospect of fighting China at the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s 14th ministerial meeting at Cameroon on March 26 to March 29 this year on China backed proposal for setting up Investment Facilitation Development (IFD) framework.

The proposal has been supported by 120 countries out of 168 countries attending. So that way, China is advantageously placed to get the proposal through. But India has the support of about 40 countries including South Africa, Sri Lanka and even Nepal. Though, Nepal has yet to get its new government after March 5 elections, the decision by the interim Prime Minister must have been prompted by the incoming PM Balendra Shah. That way, this is a positive sign for the betterment of India-Nepal relations.

Trade experts say that New Delhi has reasons to be concerned at the Chinese move to get it passed because this will expand Chinese influence on the poorer countries by making use of China’s financial muscle while this will go against the emerging economies like India, Brazil, Turkiye, Sri Lanka. Interestingly, the U.S. which has a continuing trade war with China has extended its support to the Chinese proposal.

Indian officials are highly experienced in WTO affairs. They have taken recourse to some of the gaps in the Chinese proposal and have argued that discussions on this proposed IFD framework should remain outside WTO. So this Chinese proposal should not be any part of the WTO’s new agreements. Some countries are trying to see that the IFD proposal is postponed to the next meeting. In fact in 2024 WTO meeting, India and South Africa jointly blocked China’s bid to get the IFD proposal approved.

Apart from this contentious issue, the WTO meeting will be discussing the challenges and opportunities facing the multilateral trading system and to take action on the future work programme of WTO. A delegation of World Farmers Organisation (WFO) will be participating in the meeting. India is expected to discuss its Food Security Programme and underline the need for a permanent solution to this food security issue.

Leaving aside this WTO issue, India and China are presently in a comfortable position as far as the economic relations are concerned. India has just announced the starting of direct flights between Delhi and Beijing. That will help in boosting business further as for long six years since 2020, the flights were suspended after the Galwan Valley clash between Indian and Chinese troops resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and many Chinese also.

The Chinese side is also very welcoming at the recent Indian government decisions. Chinese official media said on Saturday that the increase in flight routes means more convenient personnel exchanges, lower business costs, and broader channels for cultural exchanges. More importantly, the signal released by the resumptions will guide businesses of both countries to re-evaluate each other’s markets, activate business plans, and promote bilateral cooperation projects.

Recent positive interactions between China and India have driven the steady improvement of bilateral relations, elevating them from “a reset and fresh start” to a new level of improvement. Interactions at all levels have grown more frequent, economic and trade cooperation has reached new heights, and, people-to-people exchanges have become increasingly active, Chinese official daily Global Times said.

These mutual efforts have laid a solid foundation for stabilizing and revitalizing the bilateral relationship. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted at a press conference on March 8 that mutual trust and cooperation are beneficial to the development of China and India, while division and confrontation are detrimental to the rejuvenation of Asia, according to a report by the Xinhua News Agency.

Economic and trade cooperation has always served as the anchor of China-India relations. Although bilateral trade has experienced twists and turns in the past few years, the complementarity of the two countries’ economic structures has not weakened. In 2025, bilateral trade reached a record high of $155.6 billion, marking a year-on-year rise of over 12 percent. But here there is a catch. China has a huge trade surplus and that is going up. Indian officials however say that the Chinese exports are all need based for India and contributing to the overall growth of the country’s economy. But many experts feel that this trade imbalance has to be removed and India should not be dependent on China in some key areas.

China, however, is looking at further investment relaxation by India to facilitate Chinese FDI inflow. The Chinese official position is that the resumption of direct flights is only a starting point. For China-India economic and trade to truly embark on a path of sustained upward development, more good news is needed, such as more flight routes, more visa facilitation measures, more relaxation on investment rules, and the deepening of industrial and supply chain collaboration. Each effort will benefit bilateral relations and accumulate assets for mutual trust. The continuous accumulation of these developments will form a positive cycle, consolidating the current upward momentum into a more stable and resilient norm. It is to be seen how the India-China economic relations take its course in the coming days. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The U.S.-Israel combo’s war against Iran entered its 20th day on March 19 with global diplomats monitoring closely the Chinese reaction to the continued decimation of Iran’s leadership and key installations by Trump and Netanyahu and also Tehran’s fierce retaliatory attacks against Israel as also the US allies in West Asia including UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia whose air bases are being used by the U.S. in the ongoing war.

A detailed analysis of the comments by the Chinese foreign ministry and the editorials in the official Chinese media reveal that China has taken a two pronged approach to the U.S. war in Iran making it sure that Iran gets limited assistance but that in any way does not harm its relationship with the USA, especially, its President Donald Trump. This writer who has been following the China policies closely for decades, can say with some confidence that President Xi Jinping is more comfortable with President Trump than with the Democrats. President Xi is not very well disposed to the possibility of Trump being weakened after the November midterm elections. Trump is a transactionist always looking for a perfect deal. Chinese supremo has confidence in tackling the U.S. deal maker to extract benefits for China. President Xi Jinping does not favour any big deal in the holding of the proposed summit.

Let us analyse the developments regarding the China-US relations in the last four days. Western media reports said that differences have cropped up between China and US over the proposed visit of President Trump to China from March 31 to April 2 and there was uncertainty about the visit itself. Immediately, there was reaction from the Chinese foreign ministry. On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokes person clarified that “ Head of State diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to bilateral relations, China and the U.S. will continue to maintain communication on President Trump’s visit to China.”

Earlier on Wednesday, NBC News reported that Trump told reporters on Tuesday “we’re resetting the meeting, and it looks like it’ll take place in about five weeks.” Later he said five or six weeks

On Monday, the US president told media that he had requested a delay of about a month [for the visit] because of the demands of the war in the Middle East. Previously, in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said he could delay the US-China leaders’ summit in Beijing as he presses China to help unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told media on Monday that any changes to the schedule would be because of logistics, not because Washington was trying to pressure Beijing.

In response, spokesperson Lin said on Tuesday that China has noted that the US side has already publicly clarified the inaccurate media reports by stating that the reports are completely false and emphasizing that the visit is unrelated to the issue of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Interestingly, the Chinese was very anxious to clarify that there was no pressure from Trump on China and the summit would be held without much delay confirming the comment of Trump that the summit should take place within five /six weeks. In fact, back channel negotiations indicate that both sides want the summit to be held by April end even if the West Asian war continues. This summit is very crucial for both Trump and XI. Both the leaders of the world’s first two super powers need a full meeting to discuss the pending issues including the trade deal and both do not want the conflicting positions in Iran war to cast any shadow on the coming summit.

During a press conference on the sidelines of China’s annual two sessions last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table. What the two sides need to do now is to create a suitable environment, manage the differences that do exist, and remove unnecessary disruptions.. Simultaneously, the Chinese Foreign Minister said “The year 2026 can be a landmark year of sound, steady and sustainable development of China-US relations”.

These comments by the top Chinese officials for a steady development of China-US relations in 2026 are being made at the peak of the current war when China has taken a position against the US attack on Iran and the killing of the senior Khamenei. China has talked of violation of international rules against the USA but Chinese officials have strongly refuted any reports in the western media that China is supplying new equipment to its ally Iran though China has a stake in Iran as China is a major importer of oil products from Iran.

Let us analyse the official Chinese elaboration of its stand on Iran war. According to The Global Times editorial of March 18. “The military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, with the situation remaining complex and tense. Without authorization from the UN Security Council, the US and Israel launched attacks and killed Iran’s supreme leader, deliberately provoking a war against Iran. China is not a party to this conflict. However, some Western narratives have seized the opportunity to fabricate claims aimed at discrediting China. These narratives broadly fall into three categories: the so-called “China failure” narrative, the “China responsibility” narrative, and the “China winner” narrative. Such absurd claims are driven by ulterior motives and thinly veiled political self-interest.””

According to the GT editorial, “The so-called “China failure” narrative hypes that China’s strategy of turning Iran into a key regional pillar is on the verge of collapse. The facts are clear: China has never been involved in this conflict, nor has it bet on any side. The conflict is the result of unilateral military actions by the US and Israel and has nothing to do with China’s diplomatic or economic strategies. China has actively expanded exchanges and cooperation with various countries including the Middle Eastern states based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It does not engage in military alliances, bloc confrontation, or proxy wars. Its influence in the Middle East is built on deep and extensive cooperation, which gives it resilience even amid conflict. Where, then, is the so-called “strategic failure”?

The GT editorial then explains, “The so-called “China responsibility” narrative is advanced by some Western media outlets on the grounds that “China maintains close ties with Iran,” arguing that China should bear responsibility for the conflict, or urging it to take sides, impose sanctions, or restrain Iran. It must be emphasized that both China and Iran are sovereign states, and their exchanges and cooperation comply with international law and are not directed at any third party. Should not those who initiated the war bear responsibility for the conflict itself and for the harm inflicted on the people of countries affected by it?”

Then the Chinese official media defends China’s position on its action to help Iran. The GT says “In fact, China has never stood idly by in the face of this war. From March 1 to 12, the Chinese side held phone calls with the foreign ministers of 12 countries and dispatched its special envoy to the region to conduct shuttle diplomacy. At the UN Security Council, China explicitly called for respect for the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Iran and other countries in the region. Such concrete actions – speaking up for justice, working for peace, and upholding fairness – have won recognition from regional countries.

According to GT, during phone calls with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Qatari prime minister and Omani foreign minister both expressed their expectation that China would play a greater role in promoting a ceasefire and ending the hostilities. After the Red Cross Society of China announced $200,000 in emergency humanitarian assistance for Iranian victims of an elementary school attack, China further announced on March 17 that it would offer emergency humanitarian assistance to Iran, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. China’s actions and sense of responsibility are a vivid embodiment of its commitment to the vision of a community with a shared future for humanity, as well as to internationalism and humanitarianism.

China also refutes the media comments that China is profiting from the Iran war and it is a winner. Chinese media points out “Aside from the Western military-industrial complex profiting from arms sales, there are no winners in this war. Such narratives are nothing more than attempts to drive a wedge between relevant countries and China, shifting attention and deflecting responsibility for the energy crisis triggered by US and Israeli actions by artificially praising China.”.

As the Global Times sees it, “The Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East; it is not an arena for major power rivalry. China’s position on this conflict has always been clear: Issues in the Middle East should be resolved independently by regional countries; external interference will only exacerbate instability, and the red line of protecting civilians in armed conflict must not be crossed. “.

To conclude, China will not like to give any impression that it is trying to make gains at the cost of USA, through Iran war. China is very interested in making a big success of the China-US summit like Donald Trump and he will make all efforts to ensure that whatever China does to help Iran through diplomacy or humanitarian assistance, should not have any adverse impact on the China-US relations which are improving. President Xi has to make 2026 te most successful year in terms of global diplomacy including clinching a deal with Donald Trump. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

As the U.S. Israel war against Iran entered its fourteenth day on Friday March 13, in the diplomatic corridors in the UN headquarters in New York and in other major capitals including the EU headquarters in Brussels, speculation has started on what can be the likely stand of Iran’s two allies China and Russia if the West Asian war escalates further. The question has become relevant in the context of leaks from the White House that a frustrated Trump is mulling of using ground troops to take control of the nuclear installations as also key oil infrastructure.

By now, it is evident that China and Russia are in constant touch ever since February 28 when Israel all of a sudden attacked Iran, later joined by the U.S. In the last two weeks of war, the war has turned into a war between Iran and the USA. Israel is acting as a subsidiary to U.S. war machine. In more clear terms, in the present phase it is a war between Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei who was made the supremo after the death of his father defying the U.S. President’s hopes that the Killing of senior Khamenei would divide the Iranian leadership.

On March 11, at the United Nations Security Council meeting, a resolution was passed condemning the Iranian attacks against the neighbouring countries. Out of 15 members of the SC, 13 voted in favour, and two Russia and China abstained. The two countries did not veto the resolution meaning they allowed the resolution get passed. If they had vetoed, the resolution would not have been passed. China however mentioned that the resolution should have mentioned of the initial attacks by Israel on Iran. But leaving apart semantics, it is clear that both China and Russia are not ready to have any direct confrontation with Trump. Otherwise, both of them would have vetoed the resolution pointing out the inconsistency. India was of the group of 135 countries who supported the resolution. India’s position was expected as in most cases, India is now supporting U.S. and Israel.

Early this week, at a meeting of the European leaders , the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said that Europe needs a more realistic interest driven foreign policy. It was a clear hint that EU has no other option left at present rather than aligning with the policies of Trump. Though a few leaders did not like this sort of submission by EU, the general mood in Europe is that all talk of independence from the US hegemony is bullshit, effectively, Europe has to remain an ally of Trump as long as he remains in power. One EU expert commented that “Europe’s collective action has been a fiasco at best and lunacy at worst”.

Why are China and Russia avoiding direct intervention to defend their ally? For China, the stakes in foreign policy in 2026 are very high. President Xi Jinping is due to meet President Trump in April this year. Though there is uncertainty about the dates due to the current Iran war, no postponement has been announced. Both Xi and Trump are interested in making a success of this coming summit in Beijing. It is just not the conclusion of the trade deal, XI is expecting a clear indication from Trump about the status of Taiwan which is favourable to China. Also Xi is expecting Trump to control Japan under the new Prime Minister Takaichi who is occasionally talking against China and extending support to Taiwan.

Xi is rejuvenated now after getting the mandate from the eight day National People’s Congress which concluded in Beijing on March 12. The NPC has approved the government work report and the outline of the 15th five year plan 2026-2030 for national economic and social development. The stress is not on just growth but more on social harmony and the expansion of the high tech including AI to a new level to achieve the goal of emerging as the largest economy in the world beating the United States.

Xi needs Trump to achieve this goal. Trump understands business and transactions. Xi also is a technocrat. Chinese media analysts say often that both have a good wavelength of communications and that is good for the healthy development of US-China relations. President Xi does not want this process to be seriously disturbed by his actions in Iran war. But at the same time, Xi certainly does not want Iran to be totally defeated and Trump emerging triumphant. So the Chinese supremo is also following a national interest driven foreign policy without caring much for ideology.

Both Russia and China agree on this nuanced interest driven approach.. Both the countries are helping Iran through various devices in different advisory capacities, but they are not openly supplying sophisticated weapons right now. China is very sensitive about the nuclear installation of Iran. Earlier also, China advised Iran to be careful about the issue. There is every possibility of Xi talking to Trump on the safety of the nuclear plant issue. Since Xi is free now from the NPC conclave, it is likely that that both XI and Putin will be more active in the coming days in finding out ways for cessation of hostilities.

Just like China, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a big stake in Trump. There is no country in Europe friendly to Russia. Europe in fact is angry with Trump for allowing Putin to play his ball. Trump is again organizing a meeting for Ukraine peace talks. Putin wants to get out of the mess with his head high. That is only possible with the help of Trump. Both Xi and Putin have condemned the killing of senior Khamenei and the US-Israel attack against Iran. Trump is accustomed to such verbal attacks. He does not bother for such statements. His objective is to keep China and Russia out of direct active assistance to Iran at this stage. That is happening. Iran is fighting the US-Israel war on its own.

China will be happy with an emerging scenario in West Asia with Iran and US equally battered. That will give big advantage to China since China is the only country globally apart from USA which is in a position to shell out huge funds for reconstruction of Iran. That will be welcome to Russia also. But Trump may be maverick, but he is not a fool. His political survival depends on his coming out of Iran war with his head high. He will see till the last that he achieves his objective. What will be stand of China and Russia then? (IPA Service)

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By K Raveendran

Escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran are rapidly transforming a regional confrontation into a global economic and geopolitical crisis, raising the spectre of what many analysts are beginning to describe as a Third Gulf War. Tehran’s early warning that Washington might possess the ability to ignite the conflict but lack the leverage to control its trajectory now appears to be gaining resonance as the conflict ripples across military, economic and strategic domains.

Military exchanges in and around the Persian Gulf have already underscored the asymmetry that has long defined the confrontation between Iran and its adversaries. While the United States and Israel retain overwhelming technological superiority, Iran has spent decades constructing a layered deterrence network built on missiles, drones, proxy forces and maritime disruption capabilities. That strategy has created a battlefield where traditional military victories offer little guarantee of strategic closure.

Washington and Tel Aviv are confronting a conflict landscape in which escalation carries consequences far beyond direct battlefield engagements. Iranian capabilities to target shipping lanes, energy infrastructure and allied bases across the region mean that even limited strikes risk triggering cascading retaliation. Such dynamics reinforce Tehran’s long-standing strategic doctrine: if war comes, it will not remain contained.

Economic repercussions are already beginning to mirror that reality. Energy markets, historically sensitive to Gulf instability, are reacting sharply to the growing threat to global supply lines. Crude oil prices have surged toward the psychologically significant threshold of $100 a barrel, reflecting mounting fears that shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes, could face disruption.

Even the perception of instability around Hormuz is enough to send shockwaves through commodity markets. Tanker insurance costs have risen, shipping companies are recalculating risk premiums, and energy traders are adjusting supply forecasts amid uncertainty about how far the conflict could escalate. The possibility of Iran attempting to disrupt maritime traffic through mines, missile strikes or drone attacks has become a central concern for energy-importing nations.

For the global economy, the timing could scarcely be worse. Many major economies are still navigating fragile recoveries shaped by high interest rates, supply chain adjustments and geopolitical fragmentation. A sustained spike in energy prices would compound inflationary pressures, forcing central banks to confront an unwelcome resurgence of cost-driven price increases.

Asia stands particularly exposed to such volatility. Countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea rely heavily on Gulf energy supplies to power industrial production and transportation networks. Any disruption in shipments from the region would reverberate through manufacturing supply chains that underpin much of the world’s trade. For Asian economies already balancing growth concerns against inflation risks, an oil shock could significantly complicate economic policy.

China’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports makes the stability of Gulf shipping lanes a core strategic interest. Beijing has spent years expanding its diplomatic footprint across the region, positioning itself as a potential mediator while quietly strengthening maritime security arrangements. Yet a prolonged conflict between Iran and the United States would present Beijing with a dilemma: safeguarding energy supplies without becoming entangled in the geopolitical confrontation.

India faces similar vulnerabilities. Rapid economic growth has sharply increased its demand for crude oil, much of which is sourced from the Gulf. A sustained rise in prices would widen trade deficits, strain fiscal balances and potentially trigger domestic inflation pressures. Such outcomes carry political as well as economic implications for governments dependent on stable fuel prices to maintain social and economic stability.

Japan and South Korea, two advanced economies with limited domestic energy resources, also depend heavily on Middle Eastern crude shipments. For them, the Strait of Hormuz represents a strategic lifeline. Even minor disruptions could compel these countries to tap emergency reserves or seek alternative suppliers, actions that would tighten global energy markets further.

Beyond energy, the conflict is threatening to reshape global trade routes. Shipping companies operating between Europe and Asia have already begun factoring in higher security risks for vessels transiting Gulf waters. Insurance costs, rerouting strategies and security protocols are likely to escalate as tensions intensify. These developments add another layer of strain to global supply chains that have struggled to stabilise after years of pandemic-related disruption.

Financial markets are also responding to the growing uncertainty. Investors traditionally view geopolitical conflict in energy-producing regions as a trigger for volatility across currencies, equities and commodities. Energy stocks often surge amid expectations of higher oil prices, while sectors dependent on fuel, such as aviation and transportation, face mounting cost pressures. Currency markets in emerging economies particularly sensitive to oil imports can experience sudden swings as investors reassess risk.

Strategically, the unfolding confrontation underscores the limits of conventional military power in modern conflict environments. Iran’s approach has been shaped by decades of sanctions, isolation and technological asymmetry. Rather than attempting to match the United States militarily, Tehran invested in a strategy designed to impose costs indirectly. Missile arsenals capable of reaching regional bases, alliances with non-state actors across the Middle East and the ability to disrupt maritime trade routes form the backbone of that doctrine.

Israel, for its part, views Iran’s regional network as an existential threat that must be contained or dismantled. The strategic rivalry between the two countries has expanded far beyond direct military confrontation, encompassing cyber operations, intelligence campaigns and proxy battles across multiple theatres. Any escalation involving the United States risks drawing this wider network of actors into the conflict.

What makes the present moment particularly volatile is the interconnected nature of these dynamics. Military escalation feeds economic disruption, which in turn shapes political calculations across multiple continents. Governments far removed from the Gulf are already evaluating contingency plans to mitigate the fallout from rising energy costs and trade disruptions.

The prospect of an oil shock carries historical echoes. Past conflicts in the Middle East, from the 1973 oil embargo to the Gulf War of the early 1990s, triggered sharp spikes in crude prices that reverberated through the global economy. Inflation surged, growth slowed and energy security became a central focus of national policy. The current crisis threatens to recreate similar pressures in a world that is even more economically interconnected.

Unlike earlier eras, however, the global economy now operates within a complex web of supply chains, financial markets and digital networks that amplify the speed with which shocks propagate. A disruption in one region can cascade rapidly through production systems and financial institutions worldwide. That reality magnifies the stakes of any prolonged confrontation in the Gulf. (IPA Service)

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By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers

NEW YORK: The war that began with a lightning decapitation strike has settled into something far more uncertain. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that U.S. military operations against Iran could last “four to five weeks” — and possibly “far longer.” Across the Atlantic, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s decision to strike, arguing that Tehran was rebuilding hardened missile and nuclear sites that would soon be beyond reach.

But even as American and Israeli officials describe tactical objectives — degrading missile forces, crippling naval capacity, deterring nuclear escalation — the broader strategic endgame remains opaque. There is no announced exit plan, no stated political settlement to aim for, and no visible channel for negotiations. Instead, the conflict is widening — militarily, economically and politically.

In Washington, officials describe a campaign focused on dismantling Iran’s short-range ballistic missile infrastructure and naval capabilities in the Gulf. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the operation as preemptive — an attempt to blunt what intelligence officials say would have been a sweeping retaliatory strike on American assets. Yet the timeline is uncertain.

Iran has retaliated across the region, targeting U.S. bases and Gulf infrastructure. The United States Central Command continues high-tempo air operations. Israeli strikes have expanded beyond Iranian territory to proxy targets in Lebanon. The risk of escalation — rather than resolution — appears to be rising.

Unlike the early weeks of the Iraq war, where Washington articulated regime change as a central objective, the present conflict lacks a clearly defined political horizon. Is the goal to topple the Iranian regime? To force capitulation? To reset deterrence? Administration officials offer varying emphases. That ambiguity has fuelled anxiety in markets and among allies.

Energy markets reacted swiftly. Brent crude surged sharply as reports emerged of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow maritime corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Tankers have reportedly slowed or halted transit amid missile threats and drone activity. Several shipping companies are reassessing voyages; insurers are recalculating risk premiums.

Japan has already advised shipowners to avoid the Persian Gulf. European and Asian importers are scrambling to secure alternative supply lines. An unofficial estimate puts the figure at 200 ships stranded unable to pass through Hormuz for either its closed or going there is high risk.

Even partial closure or restricted passage through Hormuz sends shock waves through global pricing. Traders fear not only immediate supply loss but cascading uncertainty: if Gulf production cannot reliably reach markets, inventories tighten and futures spike. Energy analysts warn that oil prices could remain elevated for weeks if instability persists — feeding inflation just as major economies had begun stabilizing from previous price shocks.

The economic implications extend far beyond fuel. Higher oil prices ripple through transportation costs, manufacturing inputs and consumer goods. Shipping firms facing war risk premiums are diverting vessels around Africa, adding thousands of nautical miles and days to delivery times.

Container insurers, wary of missile and drone threats, are revising coverage terms. Some carriers are declining Gulf-bound routes altogether. The result is a logistical bottleneck.

Electronics manufacturers dependent on Middle Eastern petrochemicals and Asian assembly hubs face cost surges. Automotive producers worry about plastics and synthetic materials derived from oil inputs. Fertilizer, chemicals and refined fuels face similar constraints.

Delays are translating into price increases. Retailers are warning of tighter inventories. Economists caution that if maritime insurance markets seize up, trade friction could multiply. “This is how regional war becomes global inflation,” said one London-based commodities strategist.

Back in Washington, the political temperature is climbing. Members of Congress from both parties are questioning the scope of presidential authority in launching and sustaining the campaign. The War Powers Resolution requires congressional authorization for extended hostilities, yet presidents of both parties have historically interpreted their powers broadly.

House and Senate leaders are preparing hearings that could turn combative. Some lawmakers argue that preemptive action to protect U.S. forces falls squarely within executive authority. Others insist that prolonged offensive operations require explicit congressional approval. Fireworks are expected on Capitol Hill.

The debate carries echoes of earlier conflicts — from Vietnam to Iraq — when questions of strategy blurred into constitutional disputes. Critics warn of mission creep. Supporters argue that hesitation emboldens adversaries.

Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency has alleged that U.S.-Israeli strikes targeted facilities near Natanz, one of Tehran’s principal enrichment sites. The IAEA says it has not confirmed damage to nuclear installations and reports no abnormal radiation levels in neighbouring countries.

The spectre of nuclear escalation — even accidental — adds to the tension. Iran’s missile production capacity remains significant. Regional proxies retain operational capability. Gulf monarchies hosting U.S. bases are potential flashpoints. Each exchange increases the risk of miscalculation.

The combination of elevated oil prices, disrupted maritime trade and geopolitical uncertainty is already unsettling financial markets. Equity indices in Asia and Europe have swung sharply. Currency markets reflect a flight to perceived safe havens.

Central banks, already balancing inflation and slowing growth, may be forced into difficult choices if energy-driven price pressures intensify. Developing economies heavily dependent on imported fuel face acute vulnerability. The global economy, only recently regaining momentum after years of pandemic and supply-chain turbulence, now confronts renewed instability.

President Trump’s warning that the campaign could extend beyond initial projections underscores the central reality: wars rarely conform to timetables. For now, military operations continue, oil tankers hover uncertainty near contested waters, lawmakers sharpen their arguments and markets oscillate with each headline. The objectives remain contested. The duration is uncertain. The economic consequences are increasingly visible.

What began as a preemptive strike has evolved into a test — of endurance, of political will, and of whether modern economies can absorb another geopolitical shock without tipping into a deeper crisis. The world is watching not only the battlefield, but the balance sheets. (IPA Service)

The article Trump-Netanyahu’s Iran War May Be Prolonged Involving More Countries appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The article Trump-Netanyahu’s Iran War May Be Prolonged Involving More Countries appeared first on Arabian Post.

Survey covers 15 countries and includes first nationwide polling inside Syria

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies has released findings from the 2024 to 2025 Arab Opinion Index following a presentation at its headquarters in Doha. The survey, now in its ninth edition, examines political, economic and social views across 15 Arab countries.

Fieldwork took place between October 2024 and August 2025 and included interviews with more than 40,000 respondents. The latest round includes the first nationwide public opinion polling conducted inside Syria, providing data that had not previously been available through this project.

Results show that 57 percent of respondents believe their countries are moving in a positive direction, while 37 percent take the opposite view. Economic strain remains widespread. Forty one percent said their income covers only basic needs and 28 percent reported that it does not cover them. Outside the Gulf states, many households report reliance on loans or assistance.

Support for democratic governance continues across the region. Sixty eight percent of respondents expressed support for a democratic system, consistent with results recorded in every round of the survey since 2011. Trust in public institutions varies. Legislative councils received trust ratings from 51 percent of respondents, while the military received the highest level of trust at 82 percent.

The survey documents the impact of ongoing conflicts on civilians. In Gaza, more than 85 percent of respondents reported repeated displacement, hunger and the absence of basic services such as water, electricity, medical supplies and internet access. In Lebanon, 76 percent of respondents living in areas targeted by Israel said they had been forced to flee. At least half reported limited access to food and 41 percent reported limited access to healthcare and medicine. In Sudan, 47 percent said they had been internally displaced since the conflict began. More than half reported shortages of electricity, food and medication.

Public opinion in Syria was examined in detail. Between 80 and 94 percent of Syrian respondents reported feelings that included hope, joy, happiness and relief following the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, while around 80 percent also reported anxiety or uncertainty. Respondents identified economic conditions, security, political stability and national unity as the most pressing issues facing the country. While sectarian discourse was acknowledged, 41 percent attributed it to foreign interference and 66 percent said they do not differentiate in their dealings with others on the basis of sect or religion.

The 2024 to 2025 edition of the Arab Opinion Index also includes findings on social media use, levels of trust in digital information and exposure to false or misleading content, reflecting the growing role of online platforms in shaping public opinion across the region.

The article Arab Opinion Index Records Broad Support for Democracy and Mixed Views on Living Conditions appeared first on Arabian Post.

Parties to the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict should exercise restraint, immediately ceasefire, and seek dialogue, said a commentary published by People’s Daily on Oct. 26 signed by “Huan Yuping.”
This article was published at a time when China is intensifying its diplomatic mediation efforts to promote a ceasefire between the two parties.
In recent days, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has spoken on the phone with foreign ministers of multiple countries, including Palestine and Israel. Zhai Jun, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East issue, has been to Arab countries for shuttle diplomacy, actively promoting ceasefire and cessation of hostilities.
The article said that military actions should not go beyond self-defense or impose collective punishment on civilians. The parties to the conflict should adhere to international law and international humanitarian law, including ensuring the safety of civilians and detainees, opening humanitarian corridors, and preventing an even worse humanitarian disaster.
“If the current fighting in Gaza is allowed to drag on, the end result will not be a complete military victory for any side, but a wider humanitarian disaster and a more serious crisis. Each party should act responsibly for peace and lives,” the article said.
It pointed out that the United Nations, especially the UN Security Council, must shoulder its responsibility, focus on humanitarian concerns, clearly call for practical measures to a ceasefire, an end to violence, protection of civilians, and the formation of a binding international consensus.
The article stressed that the fundamental approach to addressing the Palestinian question is the implementation of the two-state solution. It said major countries, in particular, need to uphold objectivity and fairness, promote a prompt ceasefire and cessation of hostilities, and explicitly call for the implementation of the two-state solution, so as to eliminate the fertile ground for violence and play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East.

The article China calls for immediate Gaza ceasefire appeared first on Arabian Post.

The United Arab Emirates is an Islamic country in the Islamic Arabian Peninsula and neighbour to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the very birthplace of Islam. However, it has a polyglot, multi-faith population of 200 nationalities.

Try going to Yas Island, the adventure and leisure park in the UAE’s capital city of Abu Dhabi, and you’ll see Bangladeshis, Indians, Nepalese, and British people, among others, peacefully working together. Yas Waterworld Abu Dhabi, Yas Island’s water park, even has a kabayan deals promo, a testament to the considerable number of Filipinos (people from the Philippines) working at the park or thereabouts. More importantly, it is proof of the theme park’s acknowledgement of the buying power of the Filipino demographic in the UAE and the park’s willingness to engage this significant segment of the UAE population.

Expatriates: The Bulk of the UAE Population

It is not surprising that businesses big and small in the UAE are not only acknowledging but also actively marketing to the country’s foreign expatriates. After all, foreign expats comprise the bulk of the UAE population.

In 2005, the UAE population numbered only 4.1 million. Because of the country’s economic development, that number has grown to 8.3 million. The fascinating thing about that growth is that it was driven mainly by foreign expatriates. In 2010, out of the 8.3 million people in the UAE, only 947,947 were UAE citizens.

According to Global Media Insights, the total population of the UAE today stands at 10.08 million. Out of this number, 88.52% or 8.92 million are expatriates. There is, therefore, an obvious imbalance between the expatriates and the Emirati people.

Tolerance and Coexistence

Gathering millions of people of different nationalities — each one freely allowed to practice his faith — in a relatively small Islamic country could be potentially volatile. However, in the UAE, the formula works and has worked for a long time.

A large part of this is due to the UAE government’s emphasis on dialogue, coexistence and tolerance, as evinced by the federal government’s tolerance initiatives. For instance, on 15 December 2018, H.H. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed declared that 2019 is the Year of Tolerance.

The declaration was intended to show the UAE government’s commitment to establishing the UAE as a global capital of tolerance. As such, the UAE is a place where people of different cultures can communicate freely, respectfully and safely in an environment that spurns extremism in favour of acceptance.

During the Year of Tolerance, the UAE focused on implementing cultural programs, building tolerant communities and educating the youth on the value of tolerance. The following are the other tolerance initiatives by the UAE government:

• Naming the pedestrian bridge over Dubai Canal the Tolerance Bridge
• Renaming the Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed Mosque in Al Mushrif to Mariam Umm Eisa Mosque, which translates to Mary, the mother of Jesus
• The creation of the Minister of Tolerance in the Cabinet
• Tolerance Week, the UAE Tolerance Centre and other component initiatives of the UAE National Tolerance Program

Ladies’ Night and Inclusivity for Women

The country’s tolerance and acceptance initiatives do not apply only to people of different nationalities and faiths. When it comes to women inclusion, the UAE is ranked first in the Middle East North Africa region and 24th in the world in Georgetown University’s 2021 Women, Peace and Security Index.

The country has a law on equal wages, approved in 2018, that provides equal wages for men and women performing the same work. There are also moves to incorporate policies that will improve gender balance in the workplace and representation in parliament.

Finally, according to the same data from Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security, women feel safer in the UAE than in any other country.

The UAE’s push for women inclusion goes beyond lip service. In the UAE, there is a time-honoured tradition known as ladies’ night. During ladies’ night, women can avail of discounted rates on drinks, food, tickets, and services.

On the surface, ladies’ night might appear as nothing more than a clever gimmick to attract the ladies and open their wallets. While it is pretty successful at doing that, you can see from its implementation in certain establishments that ladies’ nights offer more than that.

As a case in point, ladies’ day or ladies’ night Abu Dhabi in Yas Island parks like Warner Bros. World Abu Dhabi, Ferrari World Abu Dhabi, Yas Waterworld Abu Dhabi, and Clymb Abu Dhabi go beyond promotional rates. Ladies’ day or ladies’ night means women-only admission and an all-female staff in these places. This assures women of their privacy and allows them to enjoy themselves freely in an environment away from prying eyes, especially the male variety.

This is particularly important for Muslim women who must maintain their modesty at all times but will naturally find it difficult to go water sliding or indoor skydiving in an abaya. The ladies’ day and ladies’ night promo of UAE theme parks, among other such establishments, ensures women will experience the same amenities that men freely enjoy.

Strengthening the National Identity

Even if the UAE welcomes people of diverse cultures and faith, like other nations, it must keep its identity clear, strong and steadfast. This is especially paramount in the face of the extreme imbalance between Emiratis and foreign expatriates in the UAE.

Thus, a decade before the declaration of the Year of Tolerance, the UAE government, under H.H. Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, dedicated 2008 as the year of national identity. The goal was to promote and preserve the national identity of the UAE and spearhead activities and initiatives that would help the country maintain its identity amidst globalisation.

Some of the initiatives introduced towards this end include:

• The Federal Demographic Council working on rebalancing the demographic mix of expatriates and Emiratis
• The Ministry of Culture and Youth spreading cultural awareness by establishing libraries, cultural centres and initiating community and cultural services that would help consolidate a sense of national identity
• The National Cultural Encyclopaedia that compiles data on intellectuals and creatives as well as their works and achievements
• The Al Bayt Mitwahid or Our Home is United campaign
• The Emirates ID card
• Mandatory military service through the UAE National Service Law

It’s a Balancing Act

The UAE is a land of contrasts. It is an Islamic country that puts a premium on following the tenets of Islam. However, more than 80% of its population are foreign expatriates, free to practice their faith, even if it’s not Islam. It is also quite progressive in its efforts to provide women comparable rights to men, from wages to governance and even through ladies’ days and ladies’ nights.

All these relatively progressive policies can pose a risk to the country’s sense of national identity. Thus, even as the UAE promotes tolerance, coexistence and acceptance, it is careful to initiate programs and campaigns that strengthen its national identity and its citizens’ affinity and loyalty to the country.

The article The UAE: Balancing Tolerance, Inclusion and National Identity appeared first on Arabian Post.

It may seem that after the end of Trump’s Muslim Travel Ban, and the end of Trump as the president himself, that the US is progressing towards a better treatment of Muslims in America. This is far from the case, though, according to American Activist Angela David, who claims a more radical approach is needed to “grasp things at the root”.

Some may argue it could be the long-lived alliance with Israel or scaremongering surrounding terrorism and extremist, but the issue is as prevalent as ever regardless of the causes. The US doesn’t see nearly enough Muslim immigration to help create a positive change through diversity; particularly when racist policies such as the Muslim Travel Ban existed.

A striking example of this is the lack of recognition of the Muslim faith in the workplace. Only recently, meat producer JBS USA is paying out $5.5 million to over 300 employees on the basis of discrimination. The offenses were in regards to harassment towards Muslims when they were praying during scheduled breaks, as well as not providing reasonable accommodation that could facilitate praying.

JBS managers were also accused of throwing meat and bones at Somali employees, many of whom claimed they were called offensive names based on their race and religion.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the humanitarian crisis that faces Afghanistan in the coming moments – of which the US is accepting some refugees, but certainly spending most of their time looking for other countries to accept them instead.

It’s not just the US, but its British allies from across the pond too, that is seeing a rise in Islamophobia.  Sayeeda Warsi, a high-up Muslim politician, claimed that anti-Muslim is so normal that it “passed the dinner table test”; something we could easily claim to be the case in the US too.

British actor Riz Ahmed, who works in the US full-time producing movies and is the first Muslim to be nominated for an Academy Award Best Actor, claims that American movie portrayals of Muslims are “toxic”. The misrepresentation that Riz is referring to cannot be underestimated when looking at its wider societal impacts, as the influence of film on modern culture is terrifying. 

Or what’s equally as bad for Riz is not just the misrepresentation in film, but the underrepresentation. “How was it that out of 1.6 billion people – a quarter of the world’s population – none of us had ever been in this position until now?”

Catering to demand

Whilst we are yet to solve the issues surrounding discrimination in the workplace, the desire for profit is a sure-fire way to cater to the individual needs of religion. Of course, this is great in practice but doesn’t actually resolve inherent issues of racism. Nevertheless, Muslims in the US are happy to not be ignored in a consumer setting.

 An example of this is within the will-making law industry. From a Muslim’s perspective, a will must be totally Shariah-compliant for it to be valid and credible. Of course, this was something overlooked by law firms and lawyers.

However, we have finally got to a stage where there are an increasing amount of Islamic wills online, which are Shariah-compliant and geared towards Muslims. This is a relatively new industry, though its existence was inevitable if not delayed. Among the hundreds of online will companies, it appears only two stand out as being Shariah-compliant, which are Sharia Wiz and My Wassiyah – two companies that clearly specialize in the service.

Sharia Wiz is by far the more popular of the two and claims to facilitate credible wills with unlimited future revisions for a price that reflects the market average: $59.00. Power of attorneys and living trusts are also available as an additional service.

Being one of only two recognized companies on the market, and having only been established in 2020, it does appear to be only scratching the surface of what is an inevitably greater demand to come. And, as we will see, likely greater supply, as companies begin to realize there is a gap in the market to serve Muslim-catered goods and services. This goes for financial services, eateries, and other law firms.

No such luck for mortgages

One of the most important financial products of most of our lifetimes is a mortgage, something that is seemingly transparent and straightforward. This isn’t the case for Muslims in the US, though, who face barriers to finding no-interest mortgages and down-payment programs.

There is, however, a rise in Islamic banking in New York that gives much hope, where Shariah-compliant investments and financial products are made, along with community banks and brokerages. 

There does seem to be progression in regards to Shariah-compliant goods and services. After all, it’s only a matter of time that supply can catch up with the demand. Plus, many of these firms can still sell products to non-Muslims; whereas the reverse is untrue, so it makes sense for more companies to focus on catering to all religions and races. However, it’s a sad indictment that capitalism and the motivation of profit is currently the driving force behind representing Muslims more fairly, as opposed to better education and cultural progression.

The article Is the U.S progressing towards a fair opportunity to Muslims? appeared first on Arabian Post.

James M Dorsey

Pakistani efforts to exploit the Taliban victory in Afghanistan threaten to reinforce ultra-conservative inclinations in Pakistan itself, the world’s second-most populous Muslim majority country, long accused of supporting militant religious groups.

The notion that religious ultra-conservatism may not remain contained to Afghanistan may be one reason why US President Joe Biden decided to effectively abandon Central Asia with his withdrawal of US forces from the Central Asian country.

“Islamic militancy will cause Russia and China heartburn. It makes sense for the United States to say: ‘This is not an American problem. We are out of here. The Chinese and Russians can deal with it. Going forward we will focus on what is important, the Indo Pacific,’” said a non-American government official empathetic to US concerns..

“The ironic truth for China is that the only thing worse than US soldiers near its borders is not having them there at all,” added Bloomberg columnist Shuli Ren.

Mr. Biden’s decision may also constitute a choice to allow Pakistan, unable to break away from looking at the world through the prism of its troubled relationship with India, to stew in its own juice as it attempts to ensure that the Taliban remain part of a pro-Pakistani bulwark against the subcontinent’s predominant, and like Pakistan, nuclear power.

Trying to make the best of a complex situation, Pakistan, with China not far behind, hopes that a Taliban-dominated government will favour infrastructure projects that boost the attractiveness of the Chinese-backed Pakistani port of Gwadar as a maritime gateway to landlocked Central Asia.

The subcontinental divide cuts through multiple layers, including religion and the fact that the US and Saudi-backed jihadist insurgency that defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s has made the Central Asian state as well as Pakistan more susceptible to ultra-conservative Muslim precepts such as the Taliban’s repression of women and blasphemy hysteria in Pakistan.

The Taliban as well as a significant number of Pakistani ultra-conservatives root their worldview in Deobandism, a strand of Islam that emerged in India in the mid-19th century to oppose British colonial rule by propagating an austere interpretation of the faith. Deobandism became prevalent among Pashtuns even if Deobandis in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India went their separate ways after the 1947 partition of the subcontinent.

The divide was widened by Pakistani use of militants as proxies even before the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, President Zia ul-Haq’s Islamization of Pakistan, the anti-Soviet jihad, and massive past Saudi support for militant Pakistani and Afghan Deobandis and their madrassas or religious seminaries.

Islamic scholars in the Deobandi alma mater in the Uttar Pradesh town of Deoband highlighted the divide earlier this month by seeking to distance themselves from their Afghan and Pakistani brethren.

Arshad Madani, the principal of the Darul Uloom Deoband, the original Deobandi madrassa established in 1886, welcomed a decision by India’s Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) to set up a training centre in Deoband.

“There is nothing wrong with what we teach, and we welcome the ATS staff to be a part of our classes whenever they like,” Mr. Madani said. A spokesman for the madrassa added that “we are a religious school, but we are also Indians. To doubt our integrity every time the Taliban spread terror is shameful.”

Deobandism nonetheless adds a hard religious edge to Pakistani support of the Taliban that is reinforced by the rise of Hindutava or Hindu nationalism in India spurred by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

As a result, Pakistani military and government officials have supported the Taliban in recent days by advising the United States to respect the group’s August 31 deadline for an end to US evacuation operations in Afghanistan so that the group can move forward with forming a government. The Taliban said they would only form a government once US troops have left Afghanistan.

The advice strokes with the Pakistani military’s long-standing effort to persuade the United States to negotiate an end to the war with the Taliban even before they gained control of Afghanistan, a development Pakistani officers believed was inevitable. The US ultimately followed that advice when it began negotiating with the Taliban in early 2019.

The Biden administration insisted it would abide by the Taliban’s deadline despite the attack on Friday on Kabul’s international airport in which at least 175 people were killed, including 13 American military personnel.

“Pakistan’s military echelons knew that the US would leave and wanted to accelerate the departure. With this understanding, Rawalpindi invested primarily in the Taliban. Rawalpindi’s desire was to ensure a friendly establishment in its northwestern neighbouring nation, which doesn’t get exploited against Pakistan’s interests, especially by India,” said Pakistan scholar Ayesha Siddiqa. Ms. Siddiqa was referring to Islamabad’s sister city, where the military is headquartered.

The investment over 27 years has produced mixed results. It certainly did not translate into the Taliban doing Pakistan’s bidding. The Taliban Papers, a cache of leaked Pakistani foreign ministry cables written in 2000 and 2001 before the 9/11 attacks and the US invasion of Afghanistan illustrate the panic at the time among Pakistani officials because they had lost control.

“The Pakistani establishment maintains close relationships with the Taliban, though with a decreasing level of influence… but both sides continue to profit from one another,” said Pakistan scholar Mohammad Luqman.

Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, director-general of Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s primary notorious omnipresent intelligence arm warned members of parliament in a closed-door briefing in the presence of army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa that Pakistan was losing influence over the Taliban. The general was speaking in early July as the Taliban were advancing in the Afghan countryside.

Pakistani support for the Taliban is a double-edged sword. The question is whose worldview will be exported: Will the Taliban emulate aspects of Pakistan’s tarnished democratic façade, or will the group’s ultra-conservative religious outlook gain further momentum in Pakistan?

One doesn’t exclude the other.

Ms. Siddiqa described Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid’s promise that Afghan media would be free as “a reminder of similar assurances about media freedom by Pakistan’s generals, which makes one realise the effort afoot to make a Taliban-led regime look increasingly like Pakistan (or even India): Hybrid-authoritarian and hybrid-theocratic… This is where the real problem for Pakistan begins: There is too much opacity around what Pakistan can deliver and what it cannot.”

Fertilization may however be a two-way rather than a one-way road.

While Pakistani fears that the Taliban victory will give a violent boost to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban that has close ties to their Afghan kin, the Kabul Taliban may not need the help of the militants who have started to again launch attacks inside Pakistan even before the Taliban capture of Afghanistan.

The Taliban victory benefits from decades in which religious ultra-conservatism was woven into the fabric of Pakistani society as well as some of its key institutions.

Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami leader Sirajul Haq has already used the triumph to demand a sharia-based system in Pakistan. To be fair, Mr. Haq at the same time condemned the harassment of a Pakistani girl in Lahore for not wearing a traditional shawl. Similarly, Fazal ur-Rahman, the head of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), another Islamist party, congratulated the Taliban on their takeover of Afghanistan.

Indian media reported that fugitive Jaish-E-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar, a violent Pakistani Islamist believed to have support from with the Pakistan armed forces and intelligence, had met Taliban leaders in Kabul in recent days to solicit support for stepped-up operations in disputed Kashmir. The reports could not be confirmed independently, nor did it seem likely that this would be the Taliban’s first order of business.

Said Ms. Siddiqa: “The fact remains that, notwithstanding the ambition to mellow the tone of religion in Afghanistan, Pakistan itself runs the risk of becoming more like its northwestern neighbour – more religious and more authoritarian.”

It is a concern that has not been lost in Islamabad where officials have been pushing the Taliban to opt for a truly inclusive government. A visit last week to the Pakistani capital by representatives of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and other Afghan politicians suggested that Pakistan was seeking to broaden its Afghan network beyond the Taliban.

“Ironically, Islamabad sought strategic depth against New Delhi by supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now, Taliban rule in Afghanistan will provide Pakistani jihadis with the strategic depth to launch attacks against Islamabad. For Pakistan, the chickens are coming home to roost,” said Abdul Basit, an analyst at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

The article Double-edged sword for Pakistan, China appeared first on Arabian Post.

Fresh round of escalation between Israel and armed groups from Gaza has just completed. In this round, thousands of rockets are being fired towards Israeli cities and Israel Defence Forces (IDF) responded with overwhelming airstrikes. The biggest group and de-facto ruler of Gaza, Hamas got much of the attention in this flare-up. But it was a relatively much smaller Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) turns out to be the dark horse in this conflict. Despite losing top operatives and military infrastructure PIJ kept firing large barrages of rockets until the ceasefire came into effect. Also, PIJ rocket fire was very heavy and was comparable to Hamas in terms of both volume and range. This illustrates that PIJ has stepped out of the shadow of the big brother Hamas. Founded in the early 1980’s Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is one of the most important yet least understood Palestinian armed faction, both in terms of its history and ideology. Designated as a terrorist outfit by the US and the EU both. It has grown to become the second-largest armed movement in the Gaza Strip and the third largest within the Palestinian Territories. The group has a reputation of being small and highly secretive, which makes it less prone to infiltration by Israeli intelligence services.

Hamas bears responsibility for running the day-to-day affairs of Gaza the coastal enclave often in news because of its Humanitarian hardships. Islamic Jihad has no such limitations and has emerged as the more militant faction, occasionally even undermining Hamas authority. The Islamic Jihad doesn’t bother with all those issues of social work, welfare, clinics, and food. They only care about Jihad and are of opinion that everything else will be dealt with afterwards. Because of this increasing number of Palestinians see PIJ as less willing to compromise than Hamas. PIJ is the smaller of the two main Palestinian militant groups in the Gaza Strip and is vastly outnumbered by the ruling Hamas. But it enjoys direct Iranian backing, both financially and militarily, and has become the driving force in rocket fire and confrontations with Israel. Many times it has picked up a fight with Israel on its own without taking any other resistance group in confidence. PIJ in recent time has tried to outflank Hamas by presenting itself as a more radical opponent of Israel. It’s the increased support of Iran for PIJ which is making them more flamboyant as it’s a known fact that Tehran’s favourite child in Gaza is Islamic Jihad.

While Hamas falls further down into the hole of governance, responsibility, and negotiations. PIJ will not only have a justification for existence alongside Hamas but will also prosper. According to Israeli media reports although Hamas is believed to have far more long-range rockets than PIJ. The Islamic Jihad is estimated to have as many as 8,000 short-range rockets, meaning it has more firepower to bring to bear than even Hamas against the nearby Gaza corridor. Also, most of the group’s weapons are locally produced now in Gaza. In recent years it has developed an arsenal equal to that of Hamas, with some longer-range rockets even capable of striking the Tel Aviv metropolitan area in central Israel. The group tried to overwhelm the Israeli state of the art missile defence system i.e. Iron Dome by the mere volume of the projectiles fired simultaneously. Many of the rockets are so cheap and easy to manufacture, in some cases requiring little more than metal casing and an explosive. That the group have been able to accumulate them in significant numbers. Even if Israel is able to effectively stops all the outside supplies coming into Gaza. PIJ because of its homegrown capabilities can sustain rocket fire in large volumes towards Israel for weeks if not for months. Islamic Jihad has moved into entirely indigenous production, often manufacturing both the weapon and the explosives out of raw materials available in the Gaza strip.

Shortly after Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip in July 2007 the al-Qassam Brigades military wing of Hamas launched an extensive military operation to disarm the other organizations operating there. Only two groups were entitled to extensive “relief” from this campaign the Popular Resistance Committees and Islamic Jihad. Hamas leadership must be regretting this generous favour it did to PIJ. Because in return PIJ has most of the times has undertaken stand contrary to Hamas position. PIJ firmly believes that it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by escalating tensions with Israel as it will be seen as leading resistance against the Zionist state. While Hamas rightly believes at least for now that things need to be calm down with Israel. So, that Gazans can have some breathing space. But Hamas soon has to make tough choices otherwise it will be ousted from driving seat in Gaza. Hence Hamas has to take effective measures to prevent Islamic Jihad’s independent and sole benefiting activities. Because when Gaza will bleed from the Israeli onslaught then common people will be held Hamas responsible only as they are the administrators of the strip.

The article Palestinian Islamic Jihad turned out to be a Dark Horse appeared first on Arabian Post.

By James M. Dorsey

Fraught with multiple powder kegs that could blow up at any moment, Turkish-Russian relations constitute a study in the management of a new world order’s seemingly fragile alliances.

Much like relations between Russia and China, Russia and Iran, Turkey and Iran, and Turkey and China, Turkish-Russian ties are fragile despite the fact that they, contrary to Western perceptions, are not just opportunistic and driven by short-term common interests but also grounded in a degree of shared values.

The fact of the matter is that men like presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, find common ground in a view of a new world order that rejects democracy and the rule of law; disregards human and minority rights; flaunts, at least for now, violations of international law; and operates on the principle of might is right.

That glue, however, is insufficient, to prevent Turkey and Russia from ending up on opposite sides of conflicts in Libya and Syria.

It is also unlikely to halt the gradual erosion of a presumed division of labour in Central Asia with Russia ensuring security and China focusing on economic development.

And it is doubtful it would alter the simmering rivalry between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea and long-standing Russian reluctance to sell Iran a badly needed anti-missile defense system.

Similarly, the balance of power in Syria where Russia and Iran are hoping to reap the economic benefits of reconstruction after having played the key role in securing President Bashar al-Assad’s military victory could shift dramatically if and when China commits to investing in the war-devastated country. Neither Russia nor Iran have the financial muscle to compete.

So far, Turkey, Russia, China, and Iran have been adept at ensuring that differences do not get out of hand. The question is whether stopgap management of potential blow-ups is sustainable.

In Libya, Turkey temporarily halted drone operations to allow Russian mercenaries to evacuate areas lost to the Turkish-backed, internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA) after Turkish electronic warfare whacked Russian anti-defense missile systems operated by Moscow-supported rebels led by self-appointed Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar.

In Syria, Russia and Turkey have negotiated an uneasy ceasefire and security arrangement in Idlib, one of the last rebel strongholds, following clashes in which Turkey dealt a serious blow to the Russian and Iranian-backed forces of Mr. Al-Assad.

The band aid-solutions may serve immediate economic interests and geopolitical goals but do little to mask the four powers’ seemingly incompatible long-term hegemonic ambitions.

“What is Turkey doing [in Libya]?” asked Mesut Hakki Casin, a member of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Security and Foreign Policy Board. “The reason is that Ottomans conquered Egypt after establishing dominance and control in the straits of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Turkey is in Libya because of historical and political reasons.”

Diverging interests do not only play out on the battlefield, as is evident in the shifting balance of power in Central Asia. They are also evident in the competition in arms sales.

The credible performance of Turkish drones in Libya and Syria have boosted demand for Turkish-made unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems and dented the infatuation with Russian anti-missile defense batteries.

Dubbed Bayraktar TB-2 and Anka-S, Turkish drones destroyed Russian-backed Syrian military units in northern Syria earlier this year even though they operated Russia’s Pantsir and Buk surface-to-air missile systems. A similar scenario played out in the defeat in western Libya of Mr. Haftar’s forces.

Clashing interests in Libya and Syria and economic woes at home accelerated by the fallout of the pandemic, persuaded Mr. Erdogan to seek to improve relations with the United States and rejuvenate his personal relationship with President Donald J. Trump while massaging his ties to Russia.

In a recent gesture, Botas, Turkey’s state-owned gas grid operator, opened a tender for the construction of a pipeline to Nakhichevan, an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. The pipeline would allow Azerbaijan to reduce imports from Iran.

Lobbyists in the United States for the Turkish business community are seeking to capitalize on the opening by pushing an offer by a Louisiana energy company to provide Turkey with “long-term, secure, competitively priced access to Turkey’s LNG terminals, gas pipeline and storage facilities” that would make the country less dependent on Russian and Iranian imports.

Mr. Erdogan and his energy minister, Fatih Donmez, have pushed the notion of diversification of Turkey’s energy imports.

“From Syria to Libya, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, Erdogan now figures that Turkey needs America politically and strategically more than it did some months ago. He learned by experience that getting the United States on board by making Trump his personal friend is easier than any other way,” said veteran Turkish journalist Cengiz Candar.

Mr. Erdogan is banking on his past experience of talking to Mr. Trump directly and getting what he wants despite opposition from the Pentagon as was the case with Turkey’s most recent intervention in Syria.

“To be honest, after our conversation tonight, a new era can begin between the United States and Turkey,” Mr. Erdogan said during a television interview afterward speaking to Mr. Trump by phone on June 9.

Mr. Erdogan’s approach may not be available to Iran with its deeply engrained distrust of the United States, but it certainly is what guides the thinking regarding Russia of numerous European leaders and politicians. No doubt, it is also an option that Mr. Putin has not lost sight of.

The web of relationships between China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran may seem formidable but the complexity of Turkish-Russian relations suggests that they may be built on more quicksand than any of the players are willing to admit.

On the principle of “It ain’t over until the fat lady has sung,” that is something that Gulf and other Middle Eastern leaders no doubt have taken note of.

The article Fragile Big Power Relationships Add to Middle Eastern Uncertainty appeared first on Arabian Post.

By M A Hossain

Last couple of weeks, North Korea was showing an aggressive attitudes towards South Korea and finally on 16 June 2020. North blew up a liaison office set up as symbolic wage on South in Kaesong. Needless to say, this is a provocative activity to create pressure only on Mr. Moon Jae-in, who is betting on Trump-Kim negotiations where sanctions on North Korea will be withdrawn by the US, provided North dismantle its nuclear programs. To make the situation crystal clear, I need to recap the Trump-Kim saga.

After the Iran debacle, President Donald Trump most possibly faced another challenge in the Korean Peninsula. There were two summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un where we found indications of disagreements between North Korea and the US. Before the summit, President Trump said in a statement “The Libyan model was a much different model. We decimated that country. We never said to Gaddafi, Oh, we are going to give you protection. We went in and decimated him, and we did the same thing with Iraq [Saddam Hussein]. That model would take place if we don’t make a deal”.

On the benefits of denuclearization, President Trump said,”A deal will make Kim[Kim Jong Un] very strong. He would be there [in power], he would be running the country, his country [North Korea] would be very rich”.

From the statements and sentiment of the Trump administration, it was evidently clear that Kim Jong Un is going to face a very difficult time if he doesn’t listen to Washington’s dictation. But, in my opinion, Pyongyang long-time ally Beijing may not let their old friend Kim Jong Un be defeated by the US hostility. Because, Chinese policymakers know, fall of socialism in North Korea and Kim Jong Un having the ‘similar fate of Gaddafi’ may actually pave the highway for the US in ultimately starting another long-term game plan of destabilizing communist rule in China.

Those who are considering Kim Jong Un as a fool like or coward like Mikhail Gorbachev are certainly wrong. In my personal opinion, any tactic of threatening would be counter-productive in case of Korean crisis.

But, what North would get in exchange of its positive changes are not cleared by the US and South Korea. Still there is no commitments from the US President Donald Trump rather makes the situation fishy by not lifting sanctions on North Korea. At this moment, this peace process does not seem to be reciprocal from counter part of North Korea.

We must not forget, 23,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea to protect it from North. USA is selling billions dollars weapons to South Korea and Japan because of threat from North Korea. Moreover from South Korea US can keep its arch-foe China under surveillance. Now it is almost clear that Mr. Trump is not going to compromise with this present scenario and get his administration involved in the withdrawal proposal of the US troops from Korean Peninsula.

President Trump was unable to spend a single day at his office without chaos and controversy. Starting from Russia meddling, fake news, nuclear deal, impeachment, firing staffs from office, trade war, coronavirus, recent police brutalities and of course his unprecedented, impolitic, insane and inane rants to the media. So he somehow managed Iran issue by neutralizing strategic high value target (HVT)(Quassem Solaymani) and put North Korea issue on his gamble table. It is clearly perceived that Mr.Trump is buying time for his second term presidential campaign on this issue.

Kim Jong Un needs to urgently create a strong media base similarly as he has successfully done in the case of developing nuclear technology. He needs to remember – a nation without media strength is certainly helpless and even isolated in the age of advance technology. 

Till the next US presidential election, anti-US bloc will be more proactive and aggressive on the US allies. May be this is the appropriate time to change the world order.So, it is a very crucial time for Kim and his nation to take every step carefully and diplomatically. Kim Jong Un must senses the foreboding of every future consequence.

The writer is a political and defence analyst, who writes on diversified topics in Bangladeshi and foreign newspapers.

The article Options left for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared first on Arabian Post.

By James M. Dorsey

Europe is progressively being sucked into the Middle East and North Africa’s myriad conflicts. As if wars on its doorstep in Libya and Syria were not enough, UAE support for an Eastern Mediterranean pipeline that could hurt Qatar economically — combined with Greek, Cypriot and French opposition to Turkish moves — leaves Europe with few, if any, options but to get involved.

Europe’s headaches just got worse. Its efforts to contain wars on its doorstep in Libya and Syria have failed at a moment that Europe is struggling to control a pandemic and reverse its economic fallout.

Proxy wars that pit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt against Qatar and Turkey have spilled out of Libya and Syria into the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole.

European nations, including France, Greece, and Cyprus, feel threatened by Turkey’s use of Libya to extend its grip on gas-rich regional waters in violation of international law. As a result, Middle Eastern and North African disputes are becoming European problems.

Libya’s internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA), backed by Turkish military might, has forced rebels led by Khalifa Haftar, who is supported by Russia, Egypt, France and the UAE to retreat in recent weeks from western Libya and fight to maintain control of key cities in the center of the country.

A statement last month by the foreign ministers of France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt made their concerns clear.

The statement condemned Turkey’s “illegal activities” in the Eastern Mediterranean. It called on Turkey to “fully respect the sovereignty and the sovereign rights of all states in their maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

Israel was conspicuously absent among the signatories even though it maintains close relations with all of them.

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a prominent Israeli think tank, warned that “given that Israel’s ties with Turkey have been highly problematic and relations with Russia remain delicate, Jerusalem needs to prepare for the possibility of a continuing and even growing regional influence of both, especially in light of Washington’s continued reluctance to assume a more active diplomatic or military role.”

So does Europe, which at the European Union level has so far remained on the sidelines at its peril.

“Now that the catastrophic consequences of European inaction are evident and Haftar no longer has a chance to seize power, a (European) policy shift is both possible and indispensable,” said Libya scholar Wolfram Lacher.

“Two key goals should guide European policies: first, safeguard Libya’s unity; second, counter Russian influence in Libya as a matter of priority. The U.S. shares both goals. But Europeans will only be able to act in unison if the French position shifts away from its relative tolerance for Russia and adversarial stance towards Turkey,” Mr. Lacher suggested.

Mr. Lacher appears to believe that countering Russia would not only help thwart the threat posed by Moscow but also prevent Turkey and Russia from carving up Libya into spheres of influence, if not separate states.

Arguing that the EU can no longer afford to stand by, Mr. Lacher advised the EU to impose sanctions on Mr. Haftar in a bid to undermine Russian support for his forces.

“In parallel, Western states should finally push their interests in a stable Libya more strongly when engaging with Haftar’s other foreign supporters, particularly Egypt and the UAE, to dissuade them from further cooperation with Russia,” Mr. Lacher said.

Underlying the UAE’s Saudi-backed determination to stymie Turkey is its assertive global campaign to confront any expression of political Islam. The UAE is aided by Egypt, whose president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, came into power in a 2013 Emirati-backed military coup that toppled an elected Muslim Brotherhood president.

Coupled with an agreement between Turkey and the Tripoli-based GNA which extends the two countries maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkish involvement in the wars in Libya and Syria appears to have fueled Emirati efforts to suck Europe, and ultimately the United States, into its conflict with Turkey.

Greece and Italy — which was believed to be supporting the GNA prior to Turkey’s intervention — this week signed a maritime boundaries agreement to counter Turkish moves. The accord recognizes Greek territorial waters off its many islands in accordance with the international Law of the Sea. The Turkish-Libyan agreement ignores those rights for a number of Greek islands.

The UAE and its partners in the Eastern Mediterranean were expected to support the Greek-Italian accord.

The UAE is banking on the fact that Turkey’s traditional ties to its NATO allies, Europe and the US, are strained over a host of issues, including Turkey’s military intervention in Libya, the fate of millions of refugees primarily from Syria hosted by Turkey, and Turkey’s relationship with Russia and its acquisition of an S-400 Russian anti-missile defense system.

The UAE has been putting in place the building blocks for enhanced influence in the eastern Mediterranean for some time. Increasingly close ties to Israel, whose relations with Turkey are complex, constitute a cornerstone. So does UAE participation in Greek-led annual military exercises in which Israel, Cyprus, Italy, and the United States also take part.

Containing Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean has taken on greater significance after the UAE’s hopes for a planned EastMed pipeline that would have transported natural gas from Israeli, Cypriot and Lebanese fields via Greece to Italy, were dashed.

The pipeline threatened to replace up to half of Qatari exports to Europe with gas from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Among Qatar’s detractors, the UAE is believed to be the most resistant to finding a compromise that would end the three-year-old UAE-Saudi-led boycott of the Gulf state.

The $7 billion USD, 2,200-kilometre-long pipeline project was effectively put on hold because of the economic fallout of the pandemic and the collapse of energy prices.

A consortium led by France’s Total, which includes Italian oil and gas major ENI and Novatek, Russia’s second largest gas producer, was expected to halt drilling after its first well proved to be dry.

ENI and Total have also suspended plans for six drillings off the coast of Cyprus while ExxonMobil has delayed exploration of its two wells in the area. US explorer Noble Energy together with Shell and Herzliya-based Delek Drilling is likely to follow suit in Israel’s Aphrodite field.

All of that does not seem to deter Turkey. The country’s Official Gazette announced on May 30 that state-owned oil company Turkish Petroleum had been granted 24 exploration licenses that include waters off the coast of Greek islands such as Crete and Rhodes.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias’ warning that his country would answer what he called, “the Turkish provocation” if Turkey were to proceed would further draw Europe into the Eastern Mediterranean’s mushrooming imbroglio.

It is a development that would boost Emirati efforts to further corner Turkey internationally even if it would for now likely further dampen prospects for dealing a blow to Qatar.

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