Decoding China-U.S. Relations Amidst Trump-Netanyahu’s War Against Iran

By Nitya Chakraborty

The U.S.-Israel combo’s war against Iran entered its 20th day on March 19 with global diplomats monitoring closely the Chinese reaction to the continued decimation of Iran’s leadership and key installations by Trump and Netanyahu and also Tehran’s fierce retaliatory attacks against Israel as also the US allies in West Asia including UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia whose air bases are being used by the U.S. in the ongoing war.

A detailed analysis of the comments by the Chinese foreign ministry and the editorials in the official Chinese media reveal that China has taken a two pronged approach to the U.S. war in Iran making it sure that Iran gets limited assistance but that in any way does not harm its relationship with the USA, especially, its President Donald Trump. This writer who has been following the China policies closely for decades, can say with some confidence that President Xi Jinping is more comfortable with President Trump than with the Democrats. President Xi is not very well disposed to the possibility of Trump being weakened after the November midterm elections. Trump is a transactionist always looking for a perfect deal. Chinese supremo has confidence in tackling the U.S. deal maker to extract benefits for China. President Xi Jinping does not favour any big deal in the holding of the proposed summit.

Let us analyse the developments regarding the China-US relations in the last four days. Western media reports said that differences have cropped up between China and US over the proposed visit of President Trump to China from March 31 to April 2 and there was uncertainty about the visit itself. Immediately, there was reaction from the Chinese foreign ministry. On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokes person clarified that “ Head of State diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to bilateral relations, China and the U.S. will continue to maintain communication on President Trump’s visit to China.”

Earlier on Wednesday, NBC News reported that Trump told reporters on Tuesday “we’re resetting the meeting, and it looks like it’ll take place in about five weeks.” Later he said five or six weeks

On Monday, the US president told media that he had requested a delay of about a month [for the visit] because of the demands of the war in the Middle East. Previously, in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said he could delay the US-China leaders’ summit in Beijing as he presses China to help unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told media on Monday that any changes to the schedule would be because of logistics, not because Washington was trying to pressure Beijing.

In response, spokesperson Lin said on Tuesday that China has noted that the US side has already publicly clarified the inaccurate media reports by stating that the reports are completely false and emphasizing that the visit is unrelated to the issue of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Interestingly, the Chinese was very anxious to clarify that there was no pressure from Trump on China and the summit would be held without much delay confirming the comment of Trump that the summit should take place within five /six weeks. In fact, back channel negotiations indicate that both sides want the summit to be held by April end even if the West Asian war continues. This summit is very crucial for both Trump and XI. Both the leaders of the world’s first two super powers need a full meeting to discuss the pending issues including the trade deal and both do not want the conflicting positions in Iran war to cast any shadow on the coming summit.

During a press conference on the sidelines of China’s annual two sessions last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table. What the two sides need to do now is to create a suitable environment, manage the differences that do exist, and remove unnecessary disruptions.. Simultaneously, the Chinese Foreign Minister said “The year 2026 can be a landmark year of sound, steady and sustainable development of China-US relations”.

These comments by the top Chinese officials for a steady development of China-US relations in 2026 are being made at the peak of the current war when China has taken a position against the US attack on Iran and the killing of the senior Khamenei. China has talked of violation of international rules against the USA but Chinese officials have strongly refuted any reports in the western media that China is supplying new equipment to its ally Iran though China has a stake in Iran as China is a major importer of oil products from Iran.

Let us analyse the official Chinese elaboration of its stand on Iran war. According to The Global Times editorial of March 18. “The military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, with the situation remaining complex and tense. Without authorization from the UN Security Council, the US and Israel launched attacks and killed Iran’s supreme leader, deliberately provoking a war against Iran. China is not a party to this conflict. However, some Western narratives have seized the opportunity to fabricate claims aimed at discrediting China. These narratives broadly fall into three categories: the so-called “China failure” narrative, the “China responsibility” narrative, and the “China winner” narrative. Such absurd claims are driven by ulterior motives and thinly veiled political self-interest.””

According to the GT editorial, “The so-called “China failure” narrative hypes that China’s strategy of turning Iran into a key regional pillar is on the verge of collapse. The facts are clear: China has never been involved in this conflict, nor has it bet on any side. The conflict is the result of unilateral military actions by the US and Israel and has nothing to do with China’s diplomatic or economic strategies. China has actively expanded exchanges and cooperation with various countries including the Middle Eastern states based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It does not engage in military alliances, bloc confrontation, or proxy wars. Its influence in the Middle East is built on deep and extensive cooperation, which gives it resilience even amid conflict. Where, then, is the so-called “strategic failure”?

The GT editorial then explains, “The so-called “China responsibility” narrative is advanced by some Western media outlets on the grounds that “China maintains close ties with Iran,” arguing that China should bear responsibility for the conflict, or urging it to take sides, impose sanctions, or restrain Iran. It must be emphasized that both China and Iran are sovereign states, and their exchanges and cooperation comply with international law and are not directed at any third party. Should not those who initiated the war bear responsibility for the conflict itself and for the harm inflicted on the people of countries affected by it?”

Then the Chinese official media defends China’s position on its action to help Iran. The GT says “In fact, China has never stood idly by in the face of this war. From March 1 to 12, the Chinese side held phone calls with the foreign ministers of 12 countries and dispatched its special envoy to the region to conduct shuttle diplomacy. At the UN Security Council, China explicitly called for respect for the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Iran and other countries in the region. Such concrete actions – speaking up for justice, working for peace, and upholding fairness – have won recognition from regional countries.

According to GT, during phone calls with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Qatari prime minister and Omani foreign minister both expressed their expectation that China would play a greater role in promoting a ceasefire and ending the hostilities. After the Red Cross Society of China announced $200,000 in emergency humanitarian assistance for Iranian victims of an elementary school attack, China further announced on March 17 that it would offer emergency humanitarian assistance to Iran, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. China’s actions and sense of responsibility are a vivid embodiment of its commitment to the vision of a community with a shared future for humanity, as well as to internationalism and humanitarianism.

China also refutes the media comments that China is profiting from the Iran war and it is a winner. Chinese media points out “Aside from the Western military-industrial complex profiting from arms sales, there are no winners in this war. Such narratives are nothing more than attempts to drive a wedge between relevant countries and China, shifting attention and deflecting responsibility for the energy crisis triggered by US and Israeli actions by artificially praising China.”.

As the Global Times sees it, “The Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East; it is not an arena for major power rivalry. China’s position on this conflict has always been clear: Issues in the Middle East should be resolved independently by regional countries; external interference will only exacerbate instability, and the red line of protecting civilians in armed conflict must not be crossed. “.

To conclude, China will not like to give any impression that it is trying to make gains at the cost of USA, through Iran war. China is very interested in making a big success of the China-US summit like Donald Trump and he will make all efforts to ensure that whatever China does to help Iran through diplomacy or humanitarian assistance, should not have any adverse impact on the China-US relations which are improving. President Xi has to make 2026 te most successful year in terms of global diplomacy including clinching a deal with Donald Trump. (IPA Service)