China, Russia Join Hands To Move Cautiously In Defending Their Ally Iran In War Against U.S.

By Nitya Chakraborty

As the U.S. Israel war against Iran entered its fourteenth day on Friday March 13, in the diplomatic corridors in the UN headquarters in New York and in other major capitals including the EU headquarters in Brussels, speculation has started on what can be the likely stand of Iran’s two allies China and Russia if the West Asian war escalates further. The question has become relevant in the context of leaks from the White House that a frustrated Trump is mulling of using ground troops to take control of the nuclear installations as also key oil infrastructure.

By now, it is evident that China and Russia are in constant touch ever since February 28 when Israel all of a sudden attacked Iran, later joined by the U.S. In the last two weeks of war, the war has turned into a war between Iran and the USA. Israel is acting as a subsidiary to U.S. war machine. In more clear terms, in the present phase it is a war between Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei who was made the supremo after the death of his father defying the U.S. President’s hopes that the Killing of senior Khamenei would divide the Iranian leadership.

On March 11, at the United Nations Security Council meeting, a resolution was passed condemning the Iranian attacks against the neighbouring countries. Out of 15 members of the SC, 13 voted in favour, and two Russia and China abstained. The two countries did not veto the resolution meaning they allowed the resolution get passed. If they had vetoed, the resolution would not have been passed. China however mentioned that the resolution should have mentioned of the initial attacks by Israel on Iran. But leaving apart semantics, it is clear that both China and Russia are not ready to have any direct confrontation with Trump. Otherwise, both of them would have vetoed the resolution pointing out the inconsistency. India was of the group of 135 countries who supported the resolution. India’s position was expected as in most cases, India is now supporting U.S. and Israel.

Early this week, at a meeting of the European leaders , the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said that Europe needs a more realistic interest driven foreign policy. It was a clear hint that EU has no other option left at present rather than aligning with the policies of Trump. Though a few leaders did not like this sort of submission by EU, the general mood in Europe is that all talk of independence from the US hegemony is bullshit, effectively, Europe has to remain an ally of Trump as long as he remains in power. One EU expert commented that “Europe’s collective action has been a fiasco at best and lunacy at worst”.

Why are China and Russia avoiding direct intervention to defend their ally? For China, the stakes in foreign policy in 2026 are very high. President Xi Jinping is due to meet President Trump in April this year. Though there is uncertainty about the dates due to the current Iran war, no postponement has been announced. Both Xi and Trump are interested in making a success of this coming summit in Beijing. It is just not the conclusion of the trade deal, XI is expecting a clear indication from Trump about the status of Taiwan which is favourable to China. Also Xi is expecting Trump to control Japan under the new Prime Minister Takaichi who is occasionally talking against China and extending support to Taiwan.

Xi is rejuvenated now after getting the mandate from the eight day National People’s Congress which concluded in Beijing on March 12. The NPC has approved the government work report and the outline of the 15th five year plan 2026-2030 for national economic and social development. The stress is not on just growth but more on social harmony and the expansion of the high tech including AI to a new level to achieve the goal of emerging as the largest economy in the world beating the United States.

Xi needs Trump to achieve this goal. Trump understands business and transactions. Xi also is a technocrat. Chinese media analysts say often that both have a good wavelength of communications and that is good for the healthy development of US-China relations. President Xi does not want this process to be seriously disturbed by his actions in Iran war. But at the same time, Xi certainly does not want Iran to be totally defeated and Trump emerging triumphant. So the Chinese supremo is also following a national interest driven foreign policy without caring much for ideology.

Both Russia and China agree on this nuanced interest driven approach.. Both the countries are helping Iran through various devices in different advisory capacities, but they are not openly supplying sophisticated weapons right now. China is very sensitive about the nuclear installation of Iran. Earlier also, China advised Iran to be careful about the issue. There is every possibility of Xi talking to Trump on the safety of the nuclear plant issue. Since Xi is free now from the NPC conclave, it is likely that that both XI and Putin will be more active in the coming days in finding out ways for cessation of hostilities.

Just like China, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a big stake in Trump. There is no country in Europe friendly to Russia. Europe in fact is angry with Trump for allowing Putin to play his ball. Trump is again organizing a meeting for Ukraine peace talks. Putin wants to get out of the mess with his head high. That is only possible with the help of Trump. Both Xi and Putin have condemned the killing of senior Khamenei and the US-Israel attack against Iran. Trump is accustomed to such verbal attacks. He does not bother for such statements. His objective is to keep China and Russia out of direct active assistance to Iran at this stage. That is happening. Iran is fighting the US-Israel war on its own.

China will be happy with an emerging scenario in West Asia with Iran and US equally battered. That will give big advantage to China since China is the only country globally apart from USA which is in a position to shell out huge funds for reconstruction of Iran. That will be welcome to Russia also. But Trump may be maverick, but he is not a fool. His political survival depends on his coming out of Iran war with his head high. He will see till the last that he achieves his objective. What will be stand of China and Russia then? (IPA Service)