Beijing’s Kathmandu Headache: Will Communists Win Nepal Elections?

By Sankar Ray

The four-day visit of the eight-member team of the Communist Party of China in Kathmandu, led by Liu Jianchao, the new head of CPC’s international liaison department, as well as a meeting with the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center),Pushpa Kamal Dahal, at the latter’s residence in Khumaltar both constitute the unmistakable message that CPC looks forward to a left (read pro-Beijing)-leaning combine to win in the national elections. However, it must be noted that before meeting the CPN (Maoist Center), Liu had separate meetings with Prime Minister SherBahadurDeuba and the minister of foreign affairs, Dr Aryan Khaki, in addition to the CPC team’s dialogue with the President of National Assembly of Nepal, Biddy Devi Bandar, chairman of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) Madhya Nepal and the party’s senior leader, Jalap Nat Chanel. Suffice to say that Beijing isn’t putting all of its eggs in one Nepalese basket.

The 58-year-old Liu, formerly Chinese ambassador to the Philippines and Indonesia and a known corruption-buster, is a diplomatic veteran. He has a bachelor’s degree in English from the Beijing Foreign Studies University, which he followed by a year studying foreign relations at the University of Oxford. He was the key person to have spearheaded the move to hunt down graft suspects overseas. About seven years back, the Chinese President and chief of the CPC President Xi Jinping appointed Liu as the head of the international cooperation department of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s top anti-corruption body. He is in the good books of President Xi.

The Election Commission of Nepal has mooted a single-day polling –both federal and provincial – unlike the two-day poll in 2017. The Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya and other commissioners met the PM last week proposing a single-phase national election on 18 November. As per the Constitution of Nepal, while the government is obligated to announce the election dates, it is the Election Commission that recommends election schedule, which though is not legally binding. The EC has requested the premier to announce the election date at least 120 days ahead in order to leave enough time for preparations.

The Pratinidhi Sabha, or the lower house of parliament, will have 165 members, elected directly, while 110 will be elected under the proportional representation system (PRS). The seven provincial assemblies will have 330 members elected directly, and 220 will be elected under the PRS. There are almost 26 crore voters, 70 percent of whom are expected to cast their votes.

Dahal, a.k.a. Prachanda apart, senior CPN (Maoist Center) leaders, such as Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Krishna BahadurMahara, Barshaman Pun, Dev Prasad Gurung and PamphaBhusal, were present at the meeting with the CPC leader, Liu.Relations between the CPN (Maoist Center) and the CPC were discussed. The sides have agreed to further strengthen the ties between the two parties.

In addition, the Chinese delegation had meetings with CPN (Unified Socialist), one of the ruling parties. It also called on the opposition leader from CPN (United Marxist Leninist), Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, the former PM of Nepal. Oli was ousted from power by the Supreme Court, through a landmark verdict that catapulted SherBahadurDeuba to the post of PM for the fifth time in the Himalayan country. However, the land-locked state was thrown into a political turmoil after the fall of Oli.  The country was under a penumbra of uncertainty when it had to take on the Covid-19 pandemic that took the lives of over 11,000 people, leave alone battle the controversial domestic developments, especially the brewing unrest among ethnic Nepalis.

The CPC team weighed the possibility of unity among the communist forces, according to sources in the UML. Beijing is believed to have suggested that the communist groups from the CPN (Maoist Center) to the UML to work out a “pre- or post-poll alliance between like-minded leftist forces, or only between the UML and the Maoist Centre”. However,Dahal and Oli are at loggerheads, daggers drawn towards each other. So, in reality, the possibility of even seat-sharing among the four main communist parties is quite remote.

Nepal is a Hindu-majority nation. It was until the end of twentieth century the only country whose national religion was Hinduism. But an armed struggle, waged by the CPN (Maoists) with Prachanda at the helm terminated the 240-year-long Shah monarchy, followed by a total constitutional overhaul that made the Himalayan country a secular and democratic republic, paving the way for a republican system in 2007.

The irony of history is that exactly at a time when India’s secular democratic structure is threatened by an apparently theocratic ‘Hindu Rashtra’, Nepal has rid itself from a religious statehood. Little wonder then that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could made little headway towards diplomatic camaraderie with the ruling alliance in Kathmandu.  As such, India has nothing significant to gain or lose in the ensuing national elections in the neighbouring Nepal.

Moreover, American influence in Nepal might be waning since 2007, but it hasn’t altogether withered away. The Pratinidhi Sabha’s ratification of a contentious US-funded $500 million grant agreement in February this year, despite strong protest from inside the national assembly and outside, was a distinct sign of efficient US lobbying. Expectedly, China expressed its reservations over the development.

The five-party coalition, led by Deuba’s Nepali Congress, completed one year past Tuesday. It strengthened federalism and checkmated corruption. But it will be too naïve to say that the Nepali electorate will respond positively towards such a gesture. Moreover, the election fever  will take some more time   to appear.  (IPA Service)

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