India’s 2027 Census Will Help Redraw Parliamentary Boundaries

By Nantoo Banerjee

India’s eighth post-Independence census of 2027, coming after a gap of almost 16 years, assumes a great importance in the country’s political system as it will lift the long-standing freeze on redrawing Parliamentary boundaries. The census report will provide the official population data required under Article 82 of the Indian Constitution to lift the freeze. The census will enable the government and the election commission to formally readjust Lok Sabha and state assembly seats. The census will help draw fresh federal power balances, and act as the legal trigger to implement the women’s reservation mandate. The country’s 84th Constitutional Amendment froze seat allocations based on the 1971 census until the first census after 2026, making the upcoming 2027 headcount the legal baseline to restart the process.

The Article 82 mandate requires Parliament to establish a fresh Delimitation Act after the census data is published to readjust seat counts across and within states. It will have a big impact on seat reservation for women. The 106th Constitutional Amendment ties the rollout of one-third reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies directly to the first delimitation conducted after the post-2026 census. The latest census is expected to bring about regional power shifts with risks of altering the federal balance by potentially increasing representation for northern and central states with higher population growth, while limiting relative gains in southern states that have stabilized population. It will impact reserved constituencies updating the exact boundaries and numbers of Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats based on their revised proportional populations.

Reallocating Lok Sabha seats based on pure population numbers will reduce the relative legislative weight of southern and western states. Any national ruling party heavily reliant on the Hindi heartland stands to gain a larger share of total parliament seats, while parties with localized southern strongholds face diminished leverage. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), having strong presence in the populous Hindi heartland, will probably be the biggest gainer of the delimitation process. However, the exercise may lead to federal frictions as it risks deepening political tensions between northern and southern states over resource distribution, representation, and cooperative federalism. India exhibits a stark North-South demographic divide. Northern Hindi heartland states experience high population growth well above the national average (around 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent annually), led by Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In contrast, southern states show low growth rates well below the national average, approaching near-stabilization.

It may be noted that Bihar is projected to have the highest annual population growth of 1.1 percent to 1.38 percent, followed by Uttar Pradesh by around 0.9 percent, and Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan around 0.8 percent each. In contrast, Kerala and Tamil Nadu show some of the lowest natural growth rates in the country, near zero growth as fertility drops below replacement levels. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka also display heavily declining fertility trends and are tracking closely toward early population stabilization well ahead of northern counterparts. Southern states are benefiting from higher female literacy, lower multidimensional poverty, and robust public health investments. Early and effective family planning implementation in the South contrasts with lagging demographic transition in the northern belt.

Ahead of the delimitation exercise, the country’s parliament is ready to accommodate the expanded strength of members. The estimated Rs.1,200-crore Tata Projects Limited-built new triangular shaped four-story structure of Indian Parliament building, spanning 64,500 square meters, can accommodate up to 888 members in the Lok Sabha and 384 members in the Rajya Sabha. It features smart digital touch screens at every seat, eco-friendly green architecture, and the historic Sengol placed near the Speaker’s podium. For joint sessions, the Lok Sabha chamber can expand to hold up to 1,272 members. The previous Parliament building could accommodate 543 LS members and 250 RS members. Joint sessions were historically held in the building’s central hall, which had a seating capacity of around 560.

Conducting India’s first fully digital enumeration using mobile applications and web portals, the 2027 census will introduce comprehensive caste enumeration for the first time since 1931 alongside the standard demographic, economic, and housing data. The digital self-enumeration option allows citizens to fill out forms online. The caste-inclusive data expands data collection beyond Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) to record detailed caste profiles during the population enumeration phase. The two-phase structure is divided into the Houselisting and Housing Census (assessing building types, conditions, and household assets/amenities) and Population Enumeration (covering individual demographics, literacy, migration, and occupation). It generates updated statistical baselines crucial for welfare delivery, resource distribution, and foundational policy planning.

India’s last national census, conducted in 2011, recorded a total population of 1.21 billion people (1,210,193,422). The overall literacy rate reached 74.04 percent, the sex ratio stood at 940 females per 1,000 males, and the decadal population growth rate from 2001 to 2011 was 17.64 percent. The populations of males comprised 51.54 percent and females 48.46 percent. Uttar Pradesh was the most populous state (approx. 199.8 million) and Sikkim was the least populous (approx. 610,000). The recorded population density was 382 people per square kilometre. The child sex ratio (0-6 years) was 919 females per 1,000 males. The male literacy rate was 82.14 percent and female 65.46 percent. Kerala recorded the highest literacy rate while Bihar the lowest. The religious composition had put Hindus as 79.8 percent of the population. The representation of Moslems was 14.23 percent. The “No religion” category, listed for the first time, recorded 2.87 million individuals.

India’s population census is widely regarded as the most credible and comprehensive benchmark for national demographics, though opinions on its absolute precision vary due to operational scale, reliance on self-reporting, and extended gaps between counts. The census attempts a 100 percent door-to-door count across the country’s more than 640,000 villages and thousands of urban towns. It provides the foundational data frame used for political constituency delimitation, governance planning, and validating other sample projects like the National Family Health Survey. The ongoing digital census framework incorporates mobile-based data collection and real-time dashboards intended to reduce processing errors. Yet, there are limitations and challenges. Disruptions and delays (such as the long pause since the 2011 decennial count) mean older administrative data loses granular accuracy over time, affecting welfare benefit calculations.

Complex socioeconomic markers—like fluctuating responses on caste or occupation depending on anticipated government benefits—can introduce reporting biases. Deploying over 3 million field workers to track over 1.4 billion residents leaves room for minor headcount omissions in deeply remote or rapidly expanding informal urban settlements. India’s population census data is historically regarded as structurally robust, highly granular, and legally authoritative, serving as the foundational benchmark for the country’s governance, welfare distribution, and economic planning. However, operational gaps, human error, and the unprecedented delay of the decennial count—leaving a 16-year gap since the last full census in 2011—have raised contemporary challenges regarding real-time accuracy. (IPA Service)