Big Power Rivalry Influencing Bangladesh Polls Due In January 2024

In South Asia, East Pakistan used to receive international media attention only during its natural calamities. Major powers remained mostly fixated on the tensions and conflicts involving India and West Pakistan. Even after breaking away from Pakistan, Bangladesh had to wait patiently for nearly three decades before Western countries — almost reluctantly — began to take an interest in its affairs.

However, China, Japan and India in marked contrast, had engaged far more effectively with Bangladesh at various levels during the years 1985 to 2000 not ignoring the country’s steady economic progress and political stability, despite occasional turbulence.

During the past decade, sensing the growing influence of China and India in South Asia and beyond, Western diplomacy has taken a more assertive turn. Meantime Pakistan, the country the US and its allies had instinctively trusted, is threatening to come unstuck. Instead it is Bangladesh, written off as’ a bottomless basket’ by the mighty Henry Kissinger, has survived strongly and progressed!

As Bangladesh general elections in January 2024 come closer, no wonder the world is paying a lot more attention than before. Its outcome could turn out to be of seminal importance. Both the US/EU bloc and the Bangladesh electorate have a crucial choice to make.

For the US/EU bloc, the poll results will strongly influence its long term strategic geo-political policies in the region. The majority of decisions and statements coming from this powerful Western alliance long before the elections have been firmly censorious about the HR record of the ruling Awami League.(AL) . Clearly, the West would like to see a change of guards in Dhaka, in governance/related matters.

As for Bangladeshis themselves, going by the substance of recent Dhaka-based media discourses, there is an acute awareness that how they vote in 2024 may well decide the course of their economy, going forward.

As political analysts study pre-poll developments and trends, some broad conclusions emerge: a few words about the Bangladeshi perspective are in order.

Analysts fear that if the ruling AL returns to power, the chances are Bangladesh may have to pay a very heavy economic price. No longer a less developed country, Bangladesh will lose its traditional trade concessions in the EU/US bloc countries on the export of its garments by 2026. This would mean an immediate loss of at least $5.73 billion in its garments export trade. This segment is critical to the country’s overall export earnings. An estimated 80% of these exports end up in the US/ EU bloc.

If push comes to shove for Bangladesh from Western hardliners, the livelihood of over 3 million workers in the garments sector alone could be in jeopardy — and that’s for starters!

Already, Western countries have warned that they expect from Bangladesh a reasonably free and fair elections. The international community has largely rejected the results of the last 2018 general elections, which according to the opposition parties, were massively rigged . Ignoring frantic denials from the ruling AL, West bloc countries have expressed their doubts about the present performance/policies of the incumbent government in no uncertain terms.

In plain terms ,as senior Awami League leaders concede, ‘The West is saying in effect that it would accept the outcome of the polls only if (a) either the BNP-led opposition wins a fair number of seats or (b) it defeats the AL ! If this is not interfering in the domestic elections of a sovereign independent country, what else is it?’

Also, the abiding Western antipathy towards the ruling AL, not least because of the support it enjoyed from the erstwhile USSR and India in the seventies, is no secret. During those times the US was hobnobbing with Pakistan over developments in Afghanistan, carrying out its proxy war against the USSR and opening up politically to China — never mind Bangladesh!

Now that Bangladesh has achieved a measure of regional importance and economic progress, the US cannot ignore the country’s importance in South Asia. This is a region where China has already emerged as the biggest investor during the last decade. It has announced a proposal for investment in Bangladesh infra related projects of over $22 billion over the next five years.

But the AL remains as unacceptable to the West as ever. The US has announced sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion for its alleged human rights violations and warned of future visa restrictions against individual Bangladeshi officials trying to sabotage opposition efforts in the coming elections!

Such public arm-twisting among major countries is unprecedented, according to protesting Bangladeshi politicians. Worse, it has dented the international prestige, credibility and image of the AL.

Given this backdrop, it can be safely assumed that if the AL wins, it will face numerous hurdles in the West regarding its export trade, financial aid and other substantial help from international economic agencies — such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank or the International Monetary Fund.

Yet, it would politically risque to assume that Western clout will succeed in browbeating either the ruling AL or Bangladeshi voters into accepting American dictates on the coming election.. One Bangladeshi analyst points out, actually the US-led lobby in Bangladesh might have started its pressure tactics too late.

In terms of winning local influence, a few intellectuals, academics and some Bangladeshi NGOs have been generally supporting the Western stance on the Ukraine war etc. In contrast, through bilateral programmes and visits, common religious and cultural gatherings, various exhibitions etc, thousands of Bangladeshis have been participating in events involving China, Japan or India!

In terms of extending its diplomatic/related outreach, the US-led West lags far behind Bangladesh’s regional neighbours!

Commenting on the present alignment of political forces and trends, other writers mention that for years, China has been fulfilling defence equipment requirements for Bangladesh, costing millions of dollars. This, added to China’s deep commitment in the infra sector development, has created an influential, favourable lobby of pro-China officials in Dhaka.

Similarly, there exists sizable pro-India lobby within the Bangladeshi establishment, thanks to consistent Indian support and help for Bangladesh’s development, quite apart from Delhi’s all out support to the freedom movement in 1970-71. There is also a smaller pro-Russia lobby, which may help in working out a favourable deal regarding future supplies of oil/gas, etc.

Bangladesh has consistently followed a neutral policy of independence on issues relating to international power rivalries. It is seeking an immediate membership within the growing BRICS group. It is striving to reduce its dependence on the use of the US dollar as the dominant international currency.

When it comes to asserting their independence, some analysts reason, Bangladeshis can be very touchy. Pakistan understood this too late. The US too, they feel, must not push the ruling AL too hard over the next elections. Already, there are unconfirmed reports suggesting that some Bangladeshi politicians have warned Western diplomats that their over-eagerness to interfere with the coming elections may push Bangladesh into a firmer embrace with China.

There is a general perception in Bangladesh that while India has not commented publicly on the election and related matters, Delhi would prefer another term in office for the ruling AL. The party has emerged over the years as India’s closest regional ally. The India-Bangladesh bonhomie, it has been alleged by the opposition BNP and others, helped India more. But of late even the BNP has stopped accusing India as strongly as it did before. (IPA Service)