Syria’s Power Dynamics Shift as Assad’s Allies Recalibrate

Syria is witnessing seismic shifts in its prolonged conflict, with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime having collapsed amid dwindling support from its critical allies, Russia and Iran. The rebel factions, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are in control, creating uncertainty about the nation’s political future. This precarious balance raises concerns of a potential power vacuum with regional ramifications i

HTS is led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, The group, a splinter faction of al-Qaeda, has steadily consolidated power in northern Syria. It now serves as a dominant player in the opposition landscape, aiming to unify anti-Assad factions under its leadership. These developments coincide with a noticeable pivot by Assad’s key allies—Russia and Iran—toward addressing their respective internal and geopolitical priorities.

Russia’s involvement in Syria has been a cornerstone of Assad’s survival since the war began in 2011. However, its military and economic focus has shifted due to prolonged involvement in Ukraine, straining its capacity to maintain robust support for Damascus. Similarly, Iran, another critical ally, is grappling with its own domestic protests and regional tensions, which have curtailed its ability to extend substantial assistance to Syria. The weakening of external backing leaves Assad vulnerable as rebels push closer to his strongholds.

The United Nations reports that the fighting has displaced nearly 300,000 Syrians since late November, with estimates suggesting up to 1.5 million could be forced to flee if the conflict escalates further. These movements risk exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and fueling instability across neighboring countries. Regions like Homs and the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia—home to Russian military bases—have witnessed increased civilian exodus as HTS fighters advance.

Strategically, HTS’s success followed control of critical infrastructure, including the M5 highway connecting major urban centers. Russian forces had reportedly bombed key routes to hinder rebel advances, but that could not stop HTS and allied factions capturing power.

The evolving dynamics of the Syrian conflict also have broader implications for Middle Eastern geopolitics. A power vacuum could embolden extremist groups, destabilize neighbouring countries, and strain international diplomatic efforts to restore peace. The conflict has already drawn in multiple actors, including Turkey, whose backing of the Syrian National Army further complicates the landscape. This militia coalition, aligned with HTS in several battles, aims to expand its influence, positioning itself as a rival to the Assad regime.

Regional players like Iraq and Lebanon are closely monitoring developments, given their intertwined security interests. Iraq’s ongoing fight against ISIS and Lebanon’s fragile political situation underscore the interconnected nature of the region’s challenges. Meanwhile, the involvement of Gulf nations, particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia, in supporting opposition factions has added layers to an already multifaceted conflict.

HTS leader Julani has been describing the regime as “propped up by external powers but fundamentally unsustainable.” This assertion resonates with segments of the Syrian population disillusioned by years of corruption, economic collapse, and military oppression under Assad’s rule. Yet, HTS’s classification as a terrorist organization by Western countries complicates its international recognition and the prospect of coordinated opposition leadership.

Syrians are grappling with the enormity of this historic moment, as the overthrow of President Assad’s government marks a turning point laden with uncertainty and reflection. For countless families in Syria and among refugee and migrant communities worldwide, this development has unleashed a torrent of emotion. The Assad regime’s legacy of repression, which drove thousands into exile or imprisonment and subjected many to inhumane treatment, looms large in the collective memory of the nation.

At the same time, apprehension about what lies ahead is palpable among many Syrians. The volatile aftermaths of uprisings in countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya have shown how armed militias can seize power but often struggle to govern effectively. Addressing Syria’s future at the IISS Manama Dialogue Dr. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, aptly observed: “When problems get left unresolved, they get worse … past events have shown us how important it is to support the national state.” His words underline the pressing need for a stable and inclusive political transition to avoid repeating the region’s turbulent history.