Congress-SP Alliance Sends Out Strong Signal To RSS-BJP Camp

More than the leadership of the Congress and Samajwadi Party, it is the media, which is relatively inquisitive and worried about the two parties still not resolving the contentious issue of seat sharing in Uttar Pradesh. While the leaders of two parties express their gratification at the pace and dimension of the political development, the media does not see any rationale and the shade of serenity in their claim.

Media’s intrusiveness is a part of greater design of the RSS and BJP to create confusion about the political ineptness of the Congress and Samajwadi Party leaders and projecting them as a bunch of demoralized troops who have conceded defeat even before the actual fight. This also aims at sapping their cadres and district level leaders of confidence. Once the sense of glumness takes over the rank and file, their task is half done.

At the second formal round of seat-sharing talks held on Wednesday, Congress and SP agreed that ‘winnability’ should be the main criterion for deciding which party gets which seat. Though Congress had won only Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat in 2019, the leaders of both the parties feel that the performance at the 2019 should not form the basic criteria for set sharing. In 2019, the situation was extraordinary and the RSS and BJP exploited the sensitive issue of nationalism to win the election.

The leaders are apprehensive of BJP and RSS turning the 2024 election into a religious battle. Obviously, the Congress and SP are consciously moving ahead for finalising the seat sharing pact. That the talks are going in the right direction is evident from the observation of SP MP Ram Gopal Yadav: “We have come halfway and will complete the entire journey soon.” The discussion that lasted for two hours was held at the residence of Congress leader Mukul Wasnik, convener of the party’s seat-sharing committee. For the Congress, Ashok Gehlot, Salman Khurshid and Mohan Prakash besides UP party chief Ajay Rai took part in the talks, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) was represented by party national general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav, Rajya Sabha member Javed Ali Khan and former legislator Udaiveer Singh.

It does not appear that the talk will face major hurdle as leaders of both the parties realise the political compulsions and intricacies of the political situation. They are keen to have an amicable settlement. They also realise that unless they work out a comprehensive seat sharing, they would not succeed in their mission to defeat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, which is the main base of the saffron outfit.

Since the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has been saying for long that SP would contest at least 60 seats, obviously it would not be a major issue for him to concede to the 20-seat demand of the Congress. But yet another constituent RLD has also to be accommodated and at least minimum five seats have to be given to it. However a senior SP leader said: “RLD is Samajwadi Party’s ally. It is clear that any alliance talk of RLD will be with Samajwadi Party, and not Congress.” RLD has already held talks with SP.

The Congress and SP leaders are not in a hurry to announce the final shape of the seat distribution, as they still continue to nurse the impression that BSP chief Mayawati may spring a surprise at the eleventh hour and join hands with INDIA bloc. Meanwhile, the sources maintain that some Congress leaders are in touch with her and trying to persuade her to change her stand for going alone in the polls. The Congress leaders nurse the view that Mayawati joining INDIA bloc will be the trump card for defeating the BJP.

In 2019, BJP secured 49.56% vote share, BSP 19.26%, SP 17.96% and Congress 6.31%. In 2022 assembly elections the BSP could manage 12 per cent votes. Little doubt the influence of both SP and BSP has declined substantially, political analysts feel that if Mayawati decides to join hands with INDIA, this 12 per cent would come to the INDIA kitty. Else a sizeable portion of this vote bank will switch over to the BJP. Significantly, in recent years most of the senior Dalit and Jatav leaders of BSP have joined the BJP and some of them as senior ministers in the Yogi cabinet.

The leaders of both the parties are striving to give it a final shape before Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra enters the state. The leaders plan that they would announce the decision in presence of Rahul. This would broaden and strengthen the support base of the INDIA bloc. The keenness to cap the agreement is also manifest in the remarks of the leaders of both parties.

Veteran Congress leader Salman Khurshid said: “We held a good round of talks, clear sign of a rainbow… We put forward our wish list before each other and compared the details of each seat with each other and we hope that from their side we will receive more feedback before we can reach a final discussion.” Senior SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav also sounded passionate: “We have covered half the distance (of seat-sharing talks) and the remaining half will be covered soon”. Meanwhile, Akhilesh Yadav, who was on a visit to Jabalpur conveyed; “I am confident that the sharing of seats will be proper. The Samajwadi Party, Congress and our allies together will defeat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.”

In 2019, when the SP had an alliance with the BSP and RLD, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party won five seats, the Congress just 1 and the RLD none. In 2014, the Congress, in alliance with the RLD, won just two seats and the RLD did not win any. The SP won 5 seats then. In the 2022 Assembly polls, the BJP was the clear winner with 255 of the 403 seats and 41.3% of the vote share. With its NDA allies, it won a total 273 seats and 43.3% of the vote share. The SP was the second largest party with 111 seats and 32.1% of the vote share, with the RLD winning 9 seats from 2.85% of the vote. The Congress, which contested 399 seats, won just 2 and 2.3% of the vote.

So far the SP leaders have not commented on Congress demand of 20 seats, the Congress may have to settle for 15 odd seats as the party has no electoral base in the state. But the party leadership is hopeful of a significant swing in the mood of the Muslim voters as well a section of the EBC and Dalits. Muslim Population in Uttar Pradesh is 3.85 Crore (19.26 percent) of total 19.98 Crore. Muslims are decisive factors in at least 12 districts of the state; Bahraich, Amethi, Rampur, Moradabad, Aligarh, Amroha, Balrampur, Baghpat, Bareilly, Bijnaur, Faizabad and Farrukhabad.

In significant development, the relation between Muslims and Jats in western UP has improved. Their relation has got strained in the wake of 2013 riots in the region. The farmers’ movement played magic in bringing the two communities together. Earlier, Muslims preferred SP and BSP. But now the equation has undergone change. They are disillusioned with Mayawati and have been maintaining distance from SP, as its leader Akhilesh ill-treated their leader Azam Khan. Their alienation from Congress was the primary reason for defeat of Rahul Gandhi in Amethi.

Congress has managed to catch the imagination of the EBC and Dalits by espousing the line of caste census. Moreover, the ill treatment meted to them and torture and repression they had to suffer at the hands of upper caste Rajputs and Brahmins across the state during the rule of Yogi Adityanath has turned them against BJP. Earlier, they did not have any alternative, which is why they continued to vote for the BJP. But this time they are waking up to the ground realities prevailing in the state. The change in political stance of the party under Rahul has also motivated them to come closer to Congress.

Nevertheless the RSS leadership is determined not to let the situation slip out of its hands. BJP defeat in UP will for all practical reasons be the defeat of RSS and will shatter its future plan across the country. RSS is doing every thing possible to arouse the Hindu sentiment and polarise the Hindus. RSS cannot tolerate a defeat in UP. (IPA Service)