Bangladesh Protests Are Part Of Geopolitical Turmoil In South Asia

By Arun Kumar Shrivastav

The student protest in Bangladesh over job quotas has taken a deadly turn, with more than 100 students reportedly killed by police and security forces. Despite the government’s suspension of the controversial job quota decision, there is no sign of the protests abating. Students from across the country continue to take to the streets, indicating that their demands extend beyond the job quota issue.

Experts believe that the ongoing turmoil in Bangladesh may be part of a larger geopolitical game plan. This troubled region, crucial for India’s strategic corridor to Southeast Asia, is facing significant unrest. This geographical area is vital for India’s ambitious multimodal transportation projects, including a direct rail and road route from India’s Northeast to Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Recently, India’s Manipur witnessed prolonged riots between two tribal groups.

If this region remains in conflict, it poses severe challenges to India’s plans. The proposed road link is crucial for the economic prosperity of India’s Northeast, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and beyond. Experts suggest that there may be a deliberate effort to create instability in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Manipur, isolating India and hindering its access to Southeast Asia.

The creation of Pakistan serves as a historical precedent, effectively isolating India from direct access to Central Asia. The situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban government remains largely unrecognized internationally due to its extreme and unpredictable governance, is crucial in understanding regional dynamics.

Afghanistan effectively hinders India’s strategic vision beyond its borders. Afghanistan’s instability, coupled with the contentious relationship between India and Pakistan, prevents India from accessing Central Asia and engaging in commerce and trade with these regions as seamlessly as it might have otherwise. These issues are not isolated internal matters but significant impediments to India’s progress and its aspirations to be recognized as a global power alongside the US, China, and Russia.

The unrest in Bangladesh should be viewed within the broader context of regional instability affecting India’s geopolitical landscape. The unrest, civil war, and medieval mindsets ruling smaller neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are not merely their internal problems but also substantial obstacles to India’s legitimate ambitions.

Recent political shifts in Nepal, combined with ongoing turmoil in Bangladesh, suggest the influence of international geopolitical forces in the region. The situation in Bangladesh today echoes the political changes in Sri Lanka in 2022. The fall of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government came after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent efforts by Western countries to isolate Russia on the international stage. Around the same time, Pakistan saw the fall of Imran Khan’s government.

As we observe the developments in Bangladesh, it’s crucial to consider the broader geopolitical context. Governments in this region often rise and fall swiftly, influenced by the interests of major global powers. Regional instability can obstruct India’s progress and its strategic ambitions in Central and Southeast Asia. India must not only watch but be prepared to respond proactively.

The crises in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan extend beyond their borders, affecting regional stability and, by extension, India. Afghanistan’s healthcare system is collapsing, Myanmar is experiencing severe violence, and refugee crises are escalating. These issues spill over into India, as seen with the unrest in Manipur and other states.

Dismissing these regional problems as purely internal is shortsighted. They hinder India’s strategic vision and economic outreach. India needs a proactive strategy, which includes urging neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and Myanmar to stabilize their internal situations and create a peaceful environment. Ignoring the turmoil just 10-700 km from its borders, whether in Myanmar or Afghanistan, is not a viable option for India.

India must communicate clearly to these countries the necessity of addressing their internal issues effectively. This approach not only aids regional stability but also supports India’s strategic interests, ensuring a secure and prosperous future for the region.

India’s emergence as a global economic powerhouse is not obstructed by major world powers but by the instability in its neighbouring countries. To achieve its strategic ambitions, India must address the challenges posed by its immediate neighbours, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.

India does not need to persuade global powers like the United States or Russia; it needs to ensure that its neighbours understand the importance of regional stability. These countries’ internal problems significantly impact India’s progress and its aspirations to connect with Southeast Asia and Central Asia.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are critical gateways for India to access Central Asia, while Myanmar and Bangladesh are essential for reaching Southeast Asia. The issues in these countries create substantial barriers to India’s strategic goals. Therefore, India must prioritize resolving regional conflicts and promoting stability as non-negotiable aspects of its foreign policy.

Amid the escalating crisis in Bangladesh, India must urgently clarify its position. The Indian government should communicate to both the Bangladeshi authorities and the protesting students that the ongoing unrest is detrimental to peace and stability in the region. India’s proactive engagement could help stabilize the region, ensuring mutual benefits for both countries and contributing to broader regional stability. (IPA Service)