Did Nitish Kumar Talk To Chandrababu Naidu About Joint Move Against BJP?

Nobody except Narendra Modi knows Narendra Modi well, better than others. Leaders of almost all the political parties, even his BJP colleagues, are mythically in a state of confusion whether Modi would renounce Nitish Kumar and impose president’s rule in Bihar or Nitish would emerge on the political scenario as his conscience keeper.

For a week rumours are afloat in the political circles in Patna and New Delhi that daggers are out and both Modi and Nitish are impatiently waiting for the right opportunity to strike. Future of Nitish the politician who ruled Bihar for last 20 years is the topic of discussion in the political circle and even dominates the living rooms of the elites and middle class of Bihar. Arrival of Arif Mohammed Khan as the successor of the earlier governor Rajendra Arlekar has simply added more substance to the gossip. Khan is the troubleshooter of Modi. People recall how he had made the life of Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan miserable. He has already started meeting people and politicians. This has simply added to the conjecture that Nitish was on way out.

Significance of this postulation gains importance in the backdrop of Amit Shah’s non-conformist comments against Nitish. Only a week back Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah had ruled out the possibility of Nitish Kumar leading the NDA during the 2025 assembly polls.. His protégé Bihar’s deputy CM and senior BJP leader Vijay Kumar Sinha through his reflection had simply added importance to Amit Shah’s remarks. On Wednesday Sinha said; “a BJP government on its own will be a befitting tribute to former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. BJP workers have liberated Bihar from jungle raj. But the mission is still not accomplished. Only when BJP has its own government in Bihar, we will be able to pay true tribute to Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The yearning inside the hearts of the party workers will be pacified. Even today people of jungle raj are spoiling the social harmony of Bihar. Even today Bihar is suffering from their influence”.

Obviously his observation underlines demeaning Nitish’s leadership quality and also blaming him for not completely abolishing the remnants of Jungle Raj as it still continues to have its presence and impact on the political scenario. The social circle and political establishment of Bihar know the intensity and implication of it. This is a tactical machination of the state BJP to project Nitish as irrelevant and useless and usurp his social and political base.

A leaderless Bihar BJP nevertheless is not in the position to take any sudden stand against Nitish, though some upper caste leaders are not willing to sail together. They are sceptical of losing the upper caste support to the party. They also fear that a significant portion of the OBC population, Lori-Kurmi, may shift their loyalty either to Lalu Yadav or to the Congress. Congress has been traditionally favoured political party for the upper castes of Bihar. But the rise of Lalu Yadav on the political scenario and his hate campaign forced them to opt for BJP. Their support for BJP is fashioned by compulsion of survival. Upper caste people are yet to forget how the supporters of RJD evicted them from their ancestral lands and homes and forcefully captured their properties.

Already political sources are pulsating of the information that Nitish had a long telecom conversation with Chandra Babu Naidu. It is said that both Naidu and Nitish share the feeling that Amit Shah has been using his powers and resources to goad them and make them listen to his dictates. They also resent Amit Shah’s manoeuvrings to downsize the regional parties and repeat the Maharashtra experiment in their states. In Bihar Amit Shah has succeeded to a great extent in his mission to create a group of JD(U) MPs led by Sanjay Jha and Lalan Singh loyal to him.

Nevertheless the Gujarati duo are sceptical of Nitish’s move. They nurse the lingering fear that faced with the threat to his political survival, Nitish can go to any extent to turn the crisis into advantage. Sources also maintain that Nitish and Lalu Yadav are also in touch with leaders of smaller parties like LJP and HAM. Modi is in a very precarious situation. He can neither swallow or keep in Nitish. Meanwhile Modi is learnt to have instructed his Bihar leaders not to come out with any public statement in the case of Nitish. Amit Shah has also been advised to maintain restraint for some time.

Significantly Dilip Jaiswal, state minister and Bihar BJP chief holds; “We should understand that Amit Shah was trying to underscore that he was a ‘karyakarta’ (worker) of a party in which big decisions are taken by the parliamentary board. Party has already endorsed the leadership role of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. There is no question of going back on that.” Certainly this is an attempt to water down the crisis, this also underscores the confusion that grips the party. Jaiswal’s sentiments were echoed by Raju Tiwari, state president of the LJP, who said, “There is no doubt that the NDA will contest the upcoming assembly polls under Nitish Kumar’s leadership”.

The way the political developments are rolling in Bihar, it is certain Nitish is not preparing for his political exit. Lalu’s offer to Nitish simply endorses the common perception that Nitish is still left with time in his side. Already some INDIA bloc leaders have discussed the issue of using his political skill at the national level. It is said that Congress is not averse, but it would have to be endorsed by TDP leader Chandra Babu Naidu and other leaders. Often major political developments and decisions are taken after Makar Sankranti. Though the opposition leaders are in a mood to wait till January 14, the Makar Sankranti day, they are quite sceptical of Modi’s move. They are not sure of his steps. Obviously the opposition leaders are not willing to give extra time advantage to Modi and are contemplating to strike at the earliest.

Tejashvi Yadav who was earlier opposed to accepting Nitish Kumar, is learnt to have relented and agreed to work with him. If Nitish is haunted by the spectre of coup, the RJD and other INDIA leaders are concerned of BJP coming to power through imposing president’s rule. Reports emanating from Patna suggest of the possibility of Nitish reconsidering his allegiance. His dissatisfaction with the BJP, especially his disenchantment with Amit Shah has sparked rumours of his move to revive Mahagathbandhan. Both the camps are also suffering with the fear of their MLAs crossing over to other side.

It is said that the onus is now on Nitish. INDIA bloc would not prefer to allow the situation slip out of its hands. In the house MGB has 103 MLAs and needs 20 more to form its government. RJD has 72, Congress 17, CPI(ML) 11, CPI 2 CPI(M) 2 and other opposition 1, besides one member of AIMIM. The dithering approach of Modi and Amit has also unnerved a major section of the BJP legislators belonging to backward castes. The backwards nurse antagonistic relation with the upper castes and obviously they may not vote an upper caste leader leading NDA.

Recently some of them met in Patna and reviewed the prevailing political scenario. Most of them are in favour of switching loyalty to RJD. They are however waiting for the final word from Modi on who will be public face of the NDA during the 2025 election. Delhi BJP unit refusing to allocate seats to JD(U) for the assembly election is being cited as the sign of the BJP leadership attitude towards Nitish. Things are moving fast ad the political turmoil in Bihar politics is likely to be more intensive in the coming days. (IPA Service)