Outcome Of Two Assembly And UP Bypolls Will Have Impact On Choice Of Next BJP President

Muslims have no right to vote: this is the message that was sent by the state machinery and police to the country on November 20, while the elections to the assembly were underway in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and nine by-elections were held in Uttar Pradesh. Nevertheless, Muslim women in UP deserve salute who undeterred of threat of firing by a police official, who publicly aimed his revolver at them asking not to move forward, pushed their way to the polling booth.

Reports emanating from the constituencies where by polls were held on Wednesday portray a horrible picture of the UP police. It has been completely saffronised under the rule of Yogi Adityanath. Under a saffronised police administration, it is beyond imagination that people could dare to exercise their constitutional right and elect the representative of their own choice.

In every constituency, if the local people are to be believed, and obviously there is no reason not to trust them, the police on duty outraged the directives of the Election Commission. Only a day ahead of the poll, the Commission had sent a letter to the state administration, police commissioners and senior police officers that police personnel on duty must not ask the voter to show his ID card to him. The task was to be done by the presiding officers.

But in utter contempt they forced the voters to show their card and if any one resisted, he was forced to go back and was not allowed to vote. Shockingly the police even asked for the bio data and Aadhaar card. Obviously their actions made it explicitly clear that they were carrying out the order which has come to them from above.

The mode of campaigning by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah makes it explicit that the saffron ecosystem, including RSS was desperate to win the elections. It was a matter of do or die for them. More than defeating the opposition, winning the election has become more crucial for the two warring saffron factions, one led by Modi and other by Mohan Bhagwat. Though they have been engaged in fiercest fight for retaining their supremacy inside the saffron ecosystem, a defeat for the BJP will have disastrous bearing on survival.

Appointment of the national president of BJP is still hanging in the air. The factional feud is so acute that the leadership is least bothered of the erosion of the prestige and image of the party. After initial hiccups ,the saffron leaders, RSS and BJP, kept their eyes focused on the outcome of the assembly elections to Maharashtra, Jharkhand and by polls in UP. Top RSS leaders, including the number two in the organisation, held a number of meetings with the leaders of RSS and BJP from UP. The message was also sent that Yogi would be face of the party in the election and design the electoral strategy. Obviously Yogi had to ensure that state delivers the result and party wins all the nine by elections.

In Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the RSS, only a week back, sent the message to its rank and file to join the royal battle. In both the states it was not willing to allow Modi and Shah to dictate the strategy and course of campaigning. The RSS state leaders had made it clear that they were not satisfied with the manner Modi was campaigning. Naturally with both the factions determined to ensure win of their respective candidates, there remains little doubt that opposition will be on receiving end.

One thing is quite sure that a loss for BJP will witness RSS losing the fight to have its own man as the new president of the BJP. At present a number of names are floating; Vinod Tawde, Sunil Bansal, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Manohar Lal Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis, Vasundhara Raje, and even Sanjay Joshi who is known to be Modi’s bête noire. Final decision awaits a victory for the party. The verdict will also decide the future caste strategy of the party. Whether it should encourage OBC or settle for a general caste. There are many things at stake for the RSS and BJP.

The leadership of RSS and BJP are aware of their weaknesses. Leaders of both the factions know that Modi’s style of functioning and recent bickering have eroded the base of the party and even a major chunk of cadres have been keeping away. In fact RSS making its intentions to jump into the election fray was primarily aimed at motivating the cadres and energising them to come out of slumber. In Maharashtra while the BJP does not find it in a strong situation, the condition of its two constituents is deplorable. Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) have no credibility. People look at them with contempt as the parties of defectors. These two do not have popular support at the grass root level.

On the contrary the Shiv Sena (Thackeray) and NCP (Sharad) have got popular support. The INDIA parties, Congress Party, NCP (Sharad) and Shiv Sena (Thackeray) have strong grass root network. It is this fear of losing the election that made the NDA jittery and eventually to depend on the state machinery. Apparently Mahayuti alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi are locked in a tight contest and it is the support of the state machinery that would prove to be decisive. Already election saw candidates’ vehicles being attacked, polling booths being vandalised, political workers attacking each other and death threats being openly levelled against rival candidates. (IPA Service)