After JD(U) Exit, INDIA Bloc Has To Adapt A Fresh Strategy To Take On BJP In Bihar

Inside Rajbhawan in Patna, the three storied building in Palladian form built by the New Zealand architect, has been witness to the crude form of intrigue during last four days. While Nitish Kumar was taking oath of chief minister for ninth time in succession, outside the palatial structure, just beneath the statute of India’s first president, known for his commitment to probity in public life and strict adherence to truth, the people assembled there did not hesitate in using filthy words against the chief minister and forecast this fifth desertion will witness his political demise.

Undeniably Nitish’s (the famous Paltu Chacha) somersault does not have numerical relevance for help to Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Of course they succeeded in their mission to weaken the INDIA bloc and send a message that the alliance was a fragile edifice. But the mood of the people does not endorse the views and optimism of Modi and Shah.

Nitish’s desertion has completely eroded his own personal trustworthiness, apart from shattering his political credibility than benefiting Modi. It was shocking to listen people comparing him with Modi as the avowed liar. The people are not even willing to subscribe to his accusation: ‘state of affairs within the ruling alliance in Bihar wasn’t good. I have resigned as CM as things were not working out well. Will leave the earlier alliance and form a new alliance now”.

Soon after resigning as the Bihar CM, Nitish said that he was not happy with the way things were going in the INDIA bloc that he helped take shape. But he lied in saying; “I sought the advice and opinions of everyone before coming to this decision. I took all opinions and suggestions to heart.” He made his decision based on the phone calls he received from Modi or Shah. In fact he rushed to Rajbhawan to put in his papers to Governor, after being asked by his Delhi bosses. People point out that he used to praise Tejashvi as the most obedient “bhatija” dy chief minister and appreciate his administrative skill. Since he had already planned to desert INDIA, he was now ridiculing him and using the non-cooperation as an alibi.

If the sources are to be relied, he had been working on the Modi-Shah plan since November and was waiting for the right time and opportunity to swing into action. The political circle is excited to decode the two words “ED” and “CD” which conjured him to resort to this suicidal action. Some of his close aides claim that he was feeling insulted at INDIA bloc leaders not making him the chairman of the alliance.

But what he is going to get after deserting the Mahagathbandhan. He continues to be chief minister and the worst thing to happen for him is; Modi and Shah have inducted two of his die hard bête noires, Vijay Sina and Samrat Choudhury as the deputy chief ministers. People are yet to forget how Vijay, as the speaker of assembly used to engage his verbal war with Nitish inside the house. How Nitish would use unsavoury words against Vijay. On his part Samrat had put on a “pagadi” turban with the oath that he would continue to wear it till he succeeds in his mission to pull down Nitish from power.

This latest volte face has left the opposition leaders stunned. They are confounded at his suicidal step. If he had continued to stay with INDIA bloc he would have been nationally most sought after leader. Now he would have to be subservient to Modi and carry out his orders. Just within 24 hours of his installation, signs have started appearing on the political scenario.

One thing is also quite noticeable: while Nitish puts the blame on RJD, especially Tejashvi, as the reason for his quitting the alliance, his political adviser K C Tyagi said, “Congress’s irresponsible and obstinate behaviour has shattered the INDIA bloc, which is on the verge of disintegration”.

He also accused Congress of not open to letting allies contest in its strongholds, “it kept pushing for more seats in states dominated by other Opposition parties. Congress is fighting for its survival. And it now wants to finish off regional forces”.

Alliance has not been the sole property of Congress. Neither Rahul nor Kharge had pressurised Nitish to give more seats to the Congress in Bihar than it deserved. Nevertheless, it is beyond comprehension to believe; Nitish or Tyagi? Who is speaking the truth? Tyagi, going by the prevailing developments appears to be telling simply lies. It is not clear why he did not endorse the stand of Nitish and held Tejashvi responsible?

Disgust of the alliance leaders to Nitish’s action is manifest in NCP Chief Sharad Pawar’s; “Don’t know what happened suddenly, but the public will definitely teach him a lesson for his role in the future”. The NCP dubbed BJP the “madari” of Nitish Kumar, who, it said “loves jumping to their commands”. If the sources inside the INDIA bloc are to be relied some alliance leaders were apprehensive of his moves and which is why they did not push the agenda of making Nitish the convenor or chairman of the bloc. The most vocal opponent was of course Mamata Banerjee. It was at her behest Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge was made the chairman of the alliance.

Going by the ground realities, the Bihar developments do not mean advantage for BJP. As Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats, it makes it very significant politically. Once again it would be blunder to look at the present scenario in the backdrop of 2019. In that year Modi at the behest of RSS had completely communalised the election. He had sought votes from first timers on the name of genocide of our soldiers. This time even the efforts of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and Modi to use religion and Hindutva for election do not appear to be working. If it had worked, Modi would not have conferred Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur and force Nitish to betray Lalu Yadav and INDIA bloc.

It would be wrong to see Nitish as indispensable for INDIA bloc. It would be naïve to ignore Tejashvi’s word of caution: “you people know I am true to my words. I do what I say and promise. The JD(U) would cease to exist by Lok Sabha election”. Word of caution has also been sounded by the CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya: “Bihar will not brook this betrayal and fight harder against the fascist offensive. It will be remembered as an act of great betrayal to the cause of democracy and social justice”.

Modi and Nitish must not take granted the support of the EBCs and a section of the OBCs. The people are feeling let down and disgusted. If at all one really intends to know the political scene of Bihar, he ought to seriously analyse the 2020 assembly election results. Nitish and his alliance partner could not finish the forces opposed to rightist politics. The Dalits and oppressed had voted for Left Front, which was fighting on its own and was not ally of either RJD or JD(U). Even in most of the constituencies the Dalits and RBCs voted for LEFT. During the recent years, the Left has managed to strengthen and improve its position in Bihar.

Nitish has become the chief minister, but the members of his own party JD(U) are working hard to split the party. Even on the day Nitish was being sworn in, at least 10 legislators, belonging to OBC and EBCs held a meeting and resolved to come out and bring in Tejashvi. They are clear that the mood of the people is quite hostile to JD(U) and BJP. Though BJP has been putting best efforts to win over the upper castes and OBCs, the latest development has made the OBCs to look other way.

The worst is, Dalit and EBC leaders who were humiliated by Nitish in full public view have been made to side with him by Modi and Shah. Nitish had used nasty words against harijan leader Jitan Ram Manjhi inside the house. He also has very strained relations with Chirag Paswan, the successor of Ram Vilas Paswan. Chirag is reluctant to work with Nitish. Meanwhile Nitish’s own caste enemy Kushwaha taking a jibe at him said “a leader who cannot even dare to win panchayat election cannot aspire to win assembly election”. The challenges are colossal for Modi and his latest manoeuvrings are certainly not enough to fetch votes for him.

The Mahagathbandhan under Tejashwi has learnt lessons and all the leader of the INDIA bloc are united in fighting the BJP-JD(U)combined in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. With JD(U) gone, RJD and the Congress will have more leeway in sharing of seats. The three Left parties, especially the powerful CPI(ML) Liberation will be getting more seats as also CPI and the CPI(M). The Left has the possibility of emerging as an important force in Bihar after the polls. For INDIA block, the challenge is tough but the outcome should be far more favourable compared to 2019 polls. (IPA Service)