Rahul Gandhi’s Political Future Depends On Many Imponderables Before 2024 Polls

Is Congress leader Rahul Gandhi politically finished after the recent court verdict and his subsequent dismissal from Parliament? Is it an advantage or a setback for him and his party? It is too early to predict as it is an evolving story. But experience says that no politician is finished until he is finished.

The BJP is happy that the court has fixed Rahul and believes he is politically finished. However, Congress claims that Rahul is in a win-win position. It will be advantageous if a higher court stays or overturns the verdict. If it does not, Rahul is prepared to pay ‘any price’ and even go to jail, which might give him more political mileage.

Why did the court punish Rahul? Gandhi said at a campaign rally in Karnataka in April 2019: “Why do all these thieves have Modi as their surname? Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi, Narendra Modi.”

In response, a BJP politician Purnesh Modi filed a criminal defamation complaint in which he accused Gandhi of defaming the “Modi community.”

The ruling could have been milder. The court pronounced a two-year imprisonment on Thursday. The court also gave him bail immediately and suspended the sentence for a month, allowing him time to appeal in a higher court against the punishment.

The defamation provisions used against Gandhi date back to the 1860s, when India was a British colony. Section 500 of the IPC makes the crime punishable by up to two years in prison.

Rahul will also be unable to contest the Lok Sabha elections for the next eight years apart from losing his present membership in the lower house. According to a historic decision of the Supreme Court in 2013, the membership of an MP or MLA sentenced for two years or more ends immediately after the court convicts them. The Lok Sabha promptly announced Rahul’s dismissal the next day.

Rahul needs three layers of support to come out of the situation: The strong backing of the united party. Of the united Opposition. The support of the public.

Congress responded that the conviction was to divert the Adani issue in Parliament as Congress has demanded a joint parliamentary probe into the Adani-Henderson report.

Rahul Gandhi said he would not “back down” from asking questions on the Adani stocks issue or be intimidated by threats, disqualifications, and prison sentences. Refusing to apologize for the remark, Rahul said: “My name is not Savarkar, my name is Gandhi. Gandhis don’t apologize to anyone.”

Secondly, the judgment has united the Opposition against the ruling dispensation. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and other Opposition leaders, like Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K. Stalin, Former U.P. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, and former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray joined the condemnation of the act. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee was the first to condemn the action while she has been opposing Congress all these days.

Thirdly, though the public is shocked at the punishment, the complete response is yet to come. Congress is yet to take it to the streets to involve the people in the coming days.

Rahul Gandhi’s punishment has pushed other contentious issues like Rahul’s controversial speech in Cambridge. The BJP has been stalling business in Parliament, demanding an apology from him.

Even though the conviction was a psychological blow to Rahul, his party, and the entire Opposition, it all depends on how it is communicated to the people, handle the situation, translate it into public sympathy, and sustain it until the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Critics are skeptical about this. It may not be easy given the BJP’s increasing popularity, tight control over the media, and winning spree. But Gandhi will still be news.

In the coming months, before 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress will face its first significant test in Karnataka followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, where there will be a direct contest with the BJP. If the party wins the elections in these states, it will cheer the Opposition. If the party loses, it will be a setback before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and reconcile to Modi performing the hat trick.

Rahul’s success depends on many ifs and buts. This includes whether he will get a higher court order to stay his verdict and how the public reacts. Congress must also change the poll narrative for the 2024 polls. In short, BJP cannot wish away Rahul. No politician is finished until he is finished. Rahul can be no exception.

The BJP probably realizes the adage never bring your opponent into the limelight. The moral of the story is that politicians, whatever high positions they occupy, should have tight control over their tongues. (IPA Service)