Decoding Global Geopolitical Impact Of Trump-Xi Summit In Beijing

Now that the U.S. President Donald Trump is back to Washington DC. After his two day summit talks in Beijing on May 14 and 15, it is appropriate to decode the gains of the summit. There were four major issues– Taiwan, Iran war, trade deals and facilitating more business for the American high tech companies focusing on AI. What then was the final outcome of the Beijing summit on these issues?

To start with, it should be mentioned that both world leaders met in the Chinese capital under differing circumstances. While President Trump was under tremendous pressure to show results to his domestic MAGA base, President Xi Jinping had no such compulsions. He took a long term view and was not in any hurry to clinch any deal under pressure. At the same time, he also acted to ensure that the global politics remains more favourable for China’s advancement to become a more powerful economy and that can be possible only with the cooperation from the U.S. President.

If an analysis is made of the official Chinese media, it is seen that the Chinese side sees the Beijing summit as the new positioning of U.S.-China relations representing a recalibration of each side’s goals and modes of interaction under new circumstances. Global Times, the official English daily of the Chinese Communist Party went gaga in its editorial on May 16 saying the proposal to build a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability underscores China’s consistent commitment to head of state diplomacy and its active efforts to develop a China-US relationship that is strategic, constructive and stable so that positive interaction between the two countries can bring greater stability to the unsettled world.

These are all high sounding words of policy nature without specifically mentioning what China agreed to offer to Trump or what was China’s actual gains. But through the tone and terming the Summit outcome as historic, the Chinese side is more emphasizing on the long term possibilities of a better bilateral relationship. President Trump is facing mid term polls in America in November this year. Less than six months are left. He has to show to the electorate that he is a winner. XI is leading a one party government. He has no need for such showmanship.

As against the Chinese position mostly based on long term prospects, the US side reaction was mostly from Trump through his interviews in his plane on the way to Washington. As usual, the comments were in superlatives in his usual style like fantastic. Trump also said that he and XI had settled some of the issues which no other US leader could have done. He also mentioned to Fox News he massive business deals that had been done in the interest of the American business.

The US side has agreed to define the building of a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability” as the new positioning of bilateral ties. US President Donald Trump said that China-US relations will get “better than ever before.” Responding to media questions on Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that bilateral relations are important and constructive, adding that world stability is in everyone’s interest.

Now as regards the major issues which were under discussion, Iran war was the most important as Trump was looking for some Chinese help to persuade the rigid Iranian leadership to agree to the peace terms offered by Trump. Taking into account Chinese media silence on this issue and Trump saying that China was equally interested in the end of Iran war and Iran not going nuclear, the hard truth was that China reiterated its four point peace plan and there was not big progress in their talks on Iran. But Trump got assurance that China would make all efforts to see that Iran dilutes its nuclear programme

Now after his return, stories are coming out in US media that Trump is going for major action against Iran if Iran does not agree to peace formula, are all sponsored. Trump is not in a position to start a full scale war against Iran again. He is still depending on China to help him in baling out of the Iran mess which he himself created. President Putin also is in touch with President Xi and they are both working on a compromise solution to ensure that both the US and Iran can project themselves as winners to their respective citizens.

After Iran, Taiwan is the big issue and it was most important for President Xi jinping who specifically mentioned this as the core issue for improving China-US relations. At the end of summit, the position remains at the same level with Trump giving no firm answer to Xi’s demand for suspending weapons sale to Taiwan, but at the same time, the signal was there unofficially that the US government decision on arms sale taken earlier will not take immediate effect. Taiwan was relieved because they had apprehensions that Trump would be persuaded by resurgent Xi to take open position on suspending military sales to Taiwan. This itself is good enough for the island nation at the moment.

As regards trade deals, most of the work was done earlier. After the recent Supreme Court judgment on tariffs, the problems are also not very serious. The meeting between the US CEOs and President Xi and Chinese ministers led to some good results for the US companies. As a reciprocal measure, Trump assured of lifting sanctions against the Chinese companies purchasing Iranian oil. China also agreed to buy double digit billions worth of farm goods over the next three years. Further Trump was happy that China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jet planes, the figure finally going up to 750, according to the US sources. For Trump, this was a personal success because he was canvassing for Boeings to the Chinese market for a long time. Further Trump family’s company has big interests in the business of Boeings.

On AI and rare earth minerals, both sides kept mum. It seems that the discussions are still on and the Chinese side took a tougher position in view of its recent successes in setting up AI based industries with much less investment. In rare earth supply to USA, the Busan truce will continue till October this year. So there is still time for both the countries to arrive at an amicable settlement. In all Trump’s businessmen are happy. For the present, that is the only relief for President Donald Trump. (IPA Service)