Ceasefire Agreement Is Fragile But Islamabad Talks Must Be Used For Stable Peace

All nations in the globe except perhaps Israel have welcomed the ceasefire agreement for two weeks between U.S. and Iran announced by President Donald Trump on April 7 evening US time and later endorsed by the Iranian government. The ceasefire is fragile – Israel has bombed Lebanon killing 254 persons on Wednesday itself while Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Both sides are blaming each other for violation of agreement.

These violations are certainly worrying but the most important thing is that a bigger war with massive devastation possibility has been averted and both U.S. and Iran are ready to join the peace talks organized by Pakistan in Islamabad this week end. For Trump, it is extremely difficult now to start the war against Iran again, while despite all talk of victory, Iran also knows that this is the best opportunity to restore peace in the war torn nation by concluding a reasonable agreement which takes care of Iran’s economic costs in the war. For Iran, this is the best time to come to an understanding with Trump for ensuring some truce.

Yes, Trump has been bruised beyond his expectations. In U.S., the Republicans are angry and the Democrats want to impeach him. But for the peace loving people, the immediate agenda is to ensure that the Islamabad talks succeed and the war between US and Iran is avoided on a lasting basis. If US and Iran agree even to continue the ceasefire for more time till a final agreement is reached, that should be welcomed. World needs to avoid another devastating war and that should be the priority at this moment.

It is in this background, in the next few days and even during the negotiation process, the UN as also China, Russia and other countries including European Union and India have a big responsibility. China has worked silently through Pakistan and Iran in pushing the peace formula. In fact, the Iran envoy told the Chinese media in Beijing on Wednesday soon after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement that Iran wants China and Russia to be a part of the team to monitor Hormuz Strait. He also mentioned Pakistan among the friendly countries who can be entrusted with help in monitoring. These are the countries which have to play a big role in ensuring that the Islamabad talks succeed.

The ten point Iran peace plan on the basis of which US representatives will start talks at Islamabad have many controversial issues and the same issue can be explained from different angles. So the issue of nuclear rights of Iran or reconstruction costs can not be sorted out in one meeting, it may take days. But at least the talks should not break down and the officials can continue talks while extending the ceasefire period. Iran’s friends like Russia and China have to ensure that.

The global media has started discussing about the winners and losers in the US- Iran war. Trump’s personal image and his imperial vision have got a big jolt but that should not be battered too much at this stage. If he is ready to exit Iran permanently by claiming that he is the winner as the US has achieved all its objectives, let him claim that if he signs the peace agreement on a lasting basis. Trump will be taken care of politically by the U.S. Congress and the U.S. voters in the November midterm elections. It is in the interests of global peace that he focuses more in the coming months on midterm polls, his domestic audience than the US role in West Asia and Iran.

As regards Iran, the leadership has showed maturity as against the uncivilized behaviours and rants of the U.S. President who is supposed to be the leader of the civilized free world. Iran has been battered economically and militarily. But the country emerged united and all hopes of organizing uprising by Trump and CIA were dashed. Iranian people have their grievances about the authoritarianism of the Iran regime, but they are ready to sort that out themselves internally with their power and not through any outside intervention.

This firmness of Iranian people has taught lessons to Trump. He will not talk of bringing out regime change in Latin America as he has been used to mentioning in every speech. Trump has lost his diplomatic advantage among the Gulf countries. The Gulf countries who supported Trump and allowed US bases, have been targeted by Iran. If Iran comes out stronger after the peace talks, there are problems for them. They are not sure whether they will get Trump by their side then.

Both Russia and China have gained from the US-Iran war. Both countries are supplier of arms and now Iran will be needing more arms for replenishment. China and Russia will be big sellers of sophisticated weapons to Iran in the coming months. Iran has given the withdrawal of sanctions by US as a major point in the peace plan to which Trump has provisionally agreed. If US team does not change its views at the talks, Iran will start getting big arms from China and Russia at concessional prices.

Israel is the only country which is feeling really let down by Trump. Till now, there is no invitation to Israel to join Islamabad talks. Israel has refused to observe ceasefire in Lebanon. The US may pressurize it to stop bombing Lebanon if Iran puts pressure. Israel will try to use the hawks in the White House to create problems in the peace talks. But if vice president J D Vance represents US, that Israeli pressure may not work. Vance has always been US war against Iran. Iran leaders have also more confidence in him as a negotiator.

As regards India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personalized diplomacy has come a cropper. Pakistan is being hailed as a great saver of a global disaster. Many heads of states have mentioned of the big role of Pakistan PM. Pakistan has outsmarted India in a big way in global diplomacy. Poor external affairs minister S Jaishankar may say ” we are not brokers”, but that is not going to save India from this disaster. Pakistan will be getting big advantage from the Gulf countries as also from the West if a truce is signed in Islamabad.

Otherwise also, Pakistan is at the centrestage of global diplomacy. Indian external ministry statement of not mentioning Pakistan as the mediator, was of low taste. India could have been more gracious. However it will be in the best interests of Indian diplomacy if PM Modi takes some lessons from his Iran war gaffe and allows the Indian foreign ministry to move independently without being continuously monitored by PMO. The PM of a country like Pakistan with battered polity and economy has emerged globally with higher stature compared to our Vishwaguru PM who is a close buddy of Donald Trump. (IPA Service)