Bangladesh Elections On February 12, 2026 Matter A Lot To India

The announcement by the Bangladesh Election Commission on the holding of general elections in Bangladesh on February 12 next year is a major development in the evolving politics of South Asia, especially with respect to India. The EC statement was welcomed by all the contesting political parties. The nomination process will be over by January 20 and from January 22, the election campaign will be starting ending on February 10, two days before the polling day February 12.

Significantly, the voters list consisting of 12.77 crore of Bangladeshi citizens has not created any big controversy as is happening in India now. The mainstream political parties like Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat E Islami and National Citizens Party (NCP) have been working on the finalisation of candidates for the 300 member national assembly. The NCP has been the first party to officially announce the names of some candidates.

The Awami League which ruled from 2009 to 2024 till the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5 last year, has been excluded from participation in the national elections on February 12. There has not been major protest demonstrations by the Awami League within the country after the election announcement by the EC but Sheikh Hasina herself came out with strong statement from her hideout in India terming the elections as illegal as well as the Election Commission as an illegal body. It is not clear as of now what will be the position of the large number of Awami League supporters on the polling day. Some recent opinion polls have put AL supporters at the level of 15 per cent much more than the NCP.

Apart from the national elections on February 12 to elect the new national assembly, the Bangladesh voters will also take part in the referendum on the July charter for the framing of a new constitution of the country. If the referendum is yes in favour of the charter, a new Constitution Reforms Council will be set up to frame the Constitution. A new Council will also be formed on the basis of the proportionality of the elected political parties.

It has to be recognized that the July Charter contains very ambitious objectives for setting up a value based transparent government and administration. The real test is whether the new political leadership will be able to implement the agenda in full spirit. The experience of political governance in Bangladesh since its formation in 1971 is that the ruling political parties fail to implement effectively a transparent governance. Despite a democratic agenda, the governing parties get steeped in corrupt practices and the common people’s interests are ignored. That has been the history of both Awami League and BNP regimes in the last five decades.

In the last sixteen months since the ousting of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina, there have been tumultuous changes in the positioning of the political parties in Bangladesh. The students body leading the anti-quota movement was the vanguard of the July movement leading to the fall of the Awami League government and the impression gained ground that this body which formed the political party National Citizens Party (NCP) in February this year, would be a leading force as a political party in the 2026 elections. But the developments in the last nine months since the founding of NCP show that NCP has failed to emerge as a viable political party in the minds of the electorate while Jamaat has made big inroads. In the recent elections to the students unions in the universities, students wing of Jamaat has swept defeating both BNP and the NCP bodies. In fact, NCP candidates were nowhere in the picture.

At the campaign level, NCP leaders are divided on the programme, though NCP is the first to announce the first list of candidates for the February 12 elections. BNP and Jamaat have already made big progress in choosing the candidates for their constituencies. Dhaka based observers believe that while BNP with its organizational spread and united leadership under Begum Zia, is set to occupy the leading position in the elections, Jamaat may emerge as the next party after BNP marginalizing NCP to a great extent. There are reports that some NCP leaders are trying for an understanding with BNP at individual level while a few others are working for understanding with Jamaat.

Jamaat in the electoral history of Bangladesh never got more than eight per cent of the votes though the party had a big nuisance value in creating disturbances for the ruling government. Now taking into account the possibility of coming near power, Jamaat e Islami leaders have sobered and projecting themselves as responsible leaders. Jamaat had understanding with BNP in earlier elections but this time, BNP is looking at Jamaat as a threat and refusing any truck with the party. BNP is confident of getting majority on its own in the absence of its traditional rival Awami League.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has introduced reforms to enhance participation and operational preparedness, including mechanisms for out-of-country voting. To strengthen election security, the Election Commission plans to integrate the armed forces into its election security framework. Despite these efforts, the pre-election environment remains fragile, with isolated but politically significant episodes of political violence, questions about the neutrality of local officials, and lingering distrust of security forces.

With roughly two months remaining until the February 12 polls, the Election Commission has emerged as both a key institutional actor and a flashpoint for partisan criticism. The proposed Representation of the People (Amendment) Ordinance 2025 (RPO) includes significant changes aimed at enhancing transparency and rebuilding voter confidence. The revised RPO raises campaign spending limits, reintroduces the “No Vote” option, and empowers the Election Commission to annul constituency results in cases of irregularities. Following months of public consultation, the Election Commission also cancelled the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the upcoming election, citing operational challenges and concerns over credibility. It further ruled that alliance candidates must contest using their parent party’s electoral symbol, rejecting proposals to permit joint symbols for coalitions.

From all the reports of EC’s preparedness, there is reason to believe that the Election Commission really wants to hold a free and fair elections in Bangladesh. That will be a great victory for democracy in Bangladesh. In South Asia, democracy is in trial in a large number of countries including India. In Nepal, general elections are due in March5 next year after the downfall of the K S Oli government in October this year. In Nepal also, the Gen Z demonstrators who toppled the Oli government are working hard to setup a political party to fight the conventional political parties in March polls. In Pakistan, the Election Commission is under scrutiny and many political observers pointed out the partial attitude of the Commission towards the ruling parties as against the opposition party of Imran Khan. In Sri Lanka, the new Left government is functioning well up to now with no major protest relating to stifling of the democratic process.

For India, the political outlook is not that rosy whoever wins the February 12 polls in Bangladesh. BNP is sceptic of the Narendra Modi government but among the main three parties, BNP is the only party which can be trusted in terms of working for normal diplomacy. Jamaat and NCP are out and out anti-Indian parties. But Sheikh Hasina’s staying in India and her political activities are still sore points with the BNP. New Delhi has little option but to start a fresh phase of negotiations with the new political rulers in Bangladesh after the polls are over and a new government is formed.. No sensible political leader of Bangladesh heading the new government can ignore the role of India. India has the advantage but the Indian leaders have to approach Bangladesh with a much more friendly face based on the ground reality of the political situation in the neighbouring country. (IPA Service)