India Faces A Precarious Situation In Myanmar As China Supports Junta Led Rigged Elections

Bangladesh, Nepal and now Myanmar. Indian foreign policy makers are clueless in dealing with the developing situation. Myanmar’s three phase general elections organized by the military junta ended on January 25 and the results were released on January 29 and 30. As expected, the military aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won the rigged elections securing 232 of the 263 seats in the lower house and 109 of 157 seats in the upper house.

Myanmar’s new Parliament will meet in March to elect the new President, possibly the present chief of the junta. He will choose his ministers from the army backed party and the new government will formalize the army rule through USDP. This will be just five years after the junta ousted the Suu Kyi government in February 2021. Suu Kyi is in jail with bad health. Her party is banned and the rebels loyal to China have been managed by Beijing as officially the Chinese government has given recognition to the USDP of the junta. China is sure to have its say in the formation of the new army government.

It is interesting to monitor the Chinese strategy of support to the rebel groups loyal to Beijing and simultaneously keeping all its relations with the junta using its leverage with the rebels to extract concessions from the Myanmar regime. China has protected its investments and expanded its influence among the army generals. After five years, China is the biggest beneficiary of Myanmar coup marginalizing USA, Russia and India which once had Myanmar, the old Burma as its part under British India.

The Suu Kyi led National League of Democracy which was the ruling party before the coup, was able to organize resistance along with other civil society organisations as also students, but the nature of resistance varied from province to province. In the provinces adjoining China, the rebels were helped by the Chinese army thereby helping the process of their consolidation.

As per the Myanmar experts, as of December 2025, 91 townships were entirely under the control of resistance forces, with 144 partially under their control. The military remains partially in control of the areas where the elections took place. Not only is military strength depleted, but morale also remains relatively low. The military regime has reinitiated air strikes to regain control over northern Shan State and areas surrounding the capital.

Since the coup, the junta has systematically banned dozens of political parties and detained more than 30,000 political prisoners. In January 2026, the regime initiated legal action against more than 400 individuals under an “election protection” law passed in July 2025. The law criminalises virtually all forms of criticism of the electoral process, outlawing speech, organising, or protest deemed to disrupt any aspect of voting, making the entire exercise a clear example of pervasive surveillance.

From the beginning of the coup in February 2021, China has been playing a dual role since it needs the support of the junta to protect its projects under China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China even employed its own forces to protect its projects. The junta in fact allowed free mixing of its army troops with the Chinese security forces even when the junta troops were engaged with the pro-China rebels.

Where does India stand after the national elections in Myanmar leading to the formation of a army government within few weeks? India has a 1,643 km border with Myanmar. In the past five years, lot of affected people from Myanmar including both Rohingya muslims and rebels took shelter in the states in India adjoining the Myanmar border. India has also big investment in Myanmar. Many Indian companies including public sector are operating.

India-backed connectivity projects — namely the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway — while extremely crucial, are likely to remain operationally problematic. China has recently signed a cooperation agreement with the junta. India has been taking a moral position of not identifying with Junta though the official ties were not broken. India tried to establish contacts with the non -junta groups and also a part of rebels late last year but no final framework was built. As a result now, China has all the advantages. It has the support of the upcoming government as also the leverage with the rebels. India has none.

The western nations have not recognized the elections yet, but the U.S is not giving that much interest on Myanmar as of now. So China is all pervading in terms of its diplomatic influence which is not a welcome news for India. New Delhi has to make deep introspection and come out with a concrete strategy on Myanmar once the new government starts functioning. Myanmar is very important strategically from the point of security for India. New Delhi can not let the country out completely to the lap of China. (IPA Service)