Donald Trump-Xi Jinping Are Both Aiming For Win-Win Outcome At Beijing Summit

The U.S. President Donald Trump begins his three-day visit to China on May 13 for his summit with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, the outcome of which has special significance for Trump in shaping his political future in the context of the midterm elections in November this year. Among both leaders, the U.S. President has more immediate compulsions in concluding a composite deal with the Chinese supremo, especially the trade deal.

On the eve of the May13-15 visit, Trump is not fully in a comfortable situation. As regards Iran, the ceasefire continues with some hiccups, but the Iranians are negotiating tough and to the political class in the U.S., the powerful U.S. President is looking more humiliated in diplomacy as against the Iranian government, though Trump is still maintaining that he is in a commanding position. And that the Iranians will agree to the peace deal on his terms.

It is quite likely that Trump will seek Chinese help in persuading Iran to come to an amicable settlement as early as possible. Trump knows both China and Russia have influence on Iran and both have been assisting Tehran from behind. China also can make use of this Iranian imbroglio to extract some new concessions from the U.S. President in the overall context of the bilateral deal. China has been in touch continuously with Iran. Only last week Iranian foreign minister had talks with both Chinese and Russian leaders.

Apart from Iran war issue, Trump is highly interested in facilitating the trade deal and security in South China sea, while China is interested in the future of Taiwan. Trump is more interested in the composite trade deal, the draft of which has been made ready by both sides headed by the trade ministers of both countries in three previous meetings. Already, as a follow-up of the last Trump-Xi summit in Busan, South Korea in October last year, a truce is there temporarily in the trade war.

Trump unleashed last year a huge tariff hike on Chinese goods entering U.S. market at 145 per cent at one point. China retaliated by restricting export of rare earth materials that are vital for US defence technology. After Busan meet, China resumed supply on ad hoc basis till the final agreement was concluded. So Trump will try to ensure some permanent agreement on this Chinese supply of rare earth materials at the Beijing summit.

China is seeking to extend the current trade truce, preserve access to US technology and halt or roll back the tightening of US export controls. In return it may offer substantial investments in the US economy, on the line of the deals the Trump administration has previously struck with nations such as Japan and South Korea. China is presently in an advantageous position as it has advanced rapidly in the AI technology as far the latest report of WIPO, China has recorded largest number of patents in high tech areas, though US is still ahead of China in AI and two/three key areas of frontier tech.

For the Chinese President, Taiwan is especially important for discussions during Beijing summit and Xi will make every effort to take some firm declaration from Trump about Chinese mainland sovereignty over Taiwan. Beijing claims the self-ruled island of 23 million people as part of its own territory and has vowed to take control of it, using force if necessary. China has been warning Taiwan of military intervention but in reality, President Xi is still not in a mood to take any adventurous action which may worsen bilateral relations with President Trump.

In fact, Trump appears to have taken a softer stance on Taiwan than previous presidents. He has described it as an economic competitor, particularly in the semiconductor industry, rather than a democratic ally. An $11bn US arms package for Taiwan has reportedly been stalled by the state department before the Xi-Trump summit. This is a signal to President Xi by Trump on the eve of the summit. At the same time, Trump has asked the Japanese Prime Minister not to make anti-China statements in public. Japan in the recent months have been lambasting Beijing for its statements on Taiwan.

Significantly, one day after the announcement by Trump of his rescheduled visit to China on May 14 and 15, Chinese official daily Global Times came out with an editorial saying” History has repeatedly shown that both China and the US stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. China has emphasized on many occasions that the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right. If that button is misaligned, all subsequent efforts will go astray.

China’s policy toward the US has remained consistent, stable, and predictable, emphasizing mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, and serving as a steady and reliable force for improving bilateral relations. Washington needs to make greater efforts to discard its biases toward China, better understand China’s realities, and recognize the long-term trajectory of China’s economic and social development.”

The focus is more on business and trade cooperation from Chinese perspective. GT says, the business communities and civil organizations of China and the US have maintained close communication, and the people from both countries share a strong desire for mutual understanding and friendly interaction. Hopefully, US policymakers will spend more time visiting and observing China firsthand. Only when “seeing what’s happening in China” becomes action rather than advice can US decision-makers shed arrogance, correct biases, and recalibrate their perceptions through direct engagement.

As things stand now, China watchers say that Trump will try to get maximum concessions on key minerals needed for semi conductor and other high tech industries in USA and in the process, he may give some political concessions to China on Taiwan. Both Japan and Taiwan are worried at this. The new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in her recent meeting with President Trump in the White House did not get the support on Taiwan issue which she expected, though officially Japanese officials said that Japan was on the same page as the US regarding Taiwan.

Diplomatic row between Japan and China escalated this week after a Japanese army officer was accused of breaking into the Chinese embassy in Tokyo, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing. China went on to describe the incident as a “forceful break-in” by an active-duty officer of the Japan Self-Defence Forces. Japan also official lodged protest at the Chinese stance.

48 hours before the starting of this Trump visit, Chinese leadership is looking at the summit in a relaxed mood. There is no tension for President Xi. He knows that circumstances are such that China cannot lose in the bargaining that will be taking place at the summit. Trump has many stakes, China has little. But in the greater interests of Chinese economy, President Xi will also favour a composite successful deal. If that improves Trump’s stature diplomatically as also politically, President Xi won’t mind. He will allow both of the two world leaders to be the winners. (IPA Service)