Total Confusion Over The Status Of India-US Trade Deal Prevailing

The announcement on India-US trade deal was expected, but the manner in which both President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi did the same in social media has led to big confusion. After a phone call with Narendra Modi, Trump claimed on Monday that the US had reached a trade arrangement with India to roll back the punishing tariffs he had imposed on Indian products from 25 percent to 18 percent, in return for India’s dropping its tariffs on some American goods, buying more US products, and ceasing its purchases of Russian oil.

In a post on social media, Modi wrote that he was “delighted” by the tariff reduction but was spare on details, including whether his country would stop buying Russian oil as Trump had claimed. He even did not mention that the trade deal had been finalized. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Modi wrote.

Modi also didn’t mention what Trump said India is “committed to buy American goods at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billion of US Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products,” and that India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.”

There was a noticeable gap in tone between the statements issued by the US and Indian leaders following their phone call. There was much excitement in New Delhi among the BJP as also in the Government circles. Everyone was expecting a follow up detailed from the Indian government side, but nothing came out. Even at his Party MP’s meeting, Modi did not give more details, excepting saying that patience on behalf of India paid off.

What is the exact situation? The government sources give nothing more excepting telling to wait for more details from Washington. It is clear that Trump has agreed to bring down the reciprocal trade rate to 18 per cent as against the current 50 per cent including 25 per cent penalty. It takes into immediate effect, according to Trump. If it is so, it is a big gain for India as against its competitors China at 37 per cent, Vietnam 20 per cent, Bangladesh 20 per cent and even Pakistan 19 per cent.

But what concessions India gave to the US in agricultural commodities sector including soyabean, dairy and others. Has Modi agreed to stop all imports of oil from Russia even at a cheaper price? Earlier also Trump claimed that India has stopped imports from Russia, but the imports were coming based on the competitive pricing. In fact even now, as per the international oil trade sources, Russian crude is $ 16 cheaper compared to the American crude oil. If India stops full imports of Russian oil, India has to incur this additional cost. Has Modi really agreed to this. If he has agreed, he should come out and tell it openly.

In a trade deal these days, there is always give and take. So there is nothing wrong in agreeing to some concessions from India in order to get other concessions from the US which are more important for India in national interests. But the negotiations have to be on equal basis as India is India, the leading emerging economy with the potential of becoming the third largest economy in 2028 with the single largest market in the world, surpassing even China. Modi is representing its 1.4 billion people and cannot sacrifice national interests at the dictat of Trump.

The question is whether India retained its strategic autonomy while agreeing to the terms of Trump. Prime Minister has a great responsibility in coming out with details about the deal if it is already done. Or, if it is still not final and 18 per cent tariff is just the framework, he should also say so. Trump will continue to say many more things in his Truth social. Those will remain unchallenged if Narendra Modi does not tell the real position.

Back-to-back trade agreements with the European Union and the United States – one hailed as the “mother of all trade deals” and the other to slash tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent – are widely expected to boost the economy, adding a potential US$150 billion in exports over a decade., say the experts close to the government.

The agreements will drop tariffs and ease market barriers, while also boosting India’s manufacturing sector, including the labour-intensive textile sector. India however can not expect its competitive edge against China to last long as Trump is visiting China in April this year to finalise the US-China trade deal and the tariff rate for China is sure to go down to less than 20 per cent. It can be at the level of EU at15 per cent or UK at the level of 10 percent. So India has to forget its competitive edge as against China very soon.

The 50 per cent US tariffs affected multiple sectors, including steel, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. Steel shipments to the US, for example, plummeted 40 per cent after the tariffs. The sector will be recovering and that will be of big help to the Indian economy at this stage. It is to be seen how finally the India-US trade deal is officially unveiled in its final form before evaluating its total impact on the Indian economy. (IPA Service)