Latest Bangladesh Developments Have Dangerous Consequences For India

The political developments in Bangladesh including violence against any one opposing the fundamentalists are having dangerous consequences for India involving the security and geopolitical stability in the sub continent. According to this writer who has been following the churnings in the newly liberated nation since 1971, the outlook for India in terms of its relationship with its neighbour has never been so grimmer. India has been put in a situation now when the centre can watch the evolving developments in Bangladesh as an outsider with hardly any effective tools to influence the situation.

Why the developments in the last three days have more dangerous implications for India than any time during the last 53 years?. First India has no friend now in Bangladesh politics with whom they can have relations. The Awami League leaders are in jail or hiding. The grass roots workers are organizing sudden meetings, but then disappearing fearing backlash. A virulent anti-India section of the NCP is the main instigator of violence against Awami League, the Indian consulates and even the democratic minded BNP leaders.

Soon after Osman Hadi, a prominent leader of July 2024 movement’s death reached Dhaka from Singapore early this week, the worst type of propaganda against Awami League leaders, Indian government agencies, as also anyone who talked of restoring calm were attacked in the Facebook. pages of the NCP and Jamaat. The activists threatened many BNP nominees not to submit papers to the Election officials. A reign of terror is prevailing while the nomination process is going on. One BNP leader’s family house was burnt and his youngest daughter was killed and three others sustained burn injuries.

The problem is that the law and order machinery is under threat from both NCP and Jamaat activists. This has led to a dangerous situation during the nomination process. The entire process will be over by January 21 and from January 22, the notified candidates will be starting their campaign for the polling to be held on February 12. The nomination process can never be normal unless the interim government administration headed by Dr. Muhammad Yunus conducts impartially by restoring law and order and ensuring that those taking law in their hands, will not be spared.

The entire Dhaka media knows that this is not happening. Dr. Yunus also is playing a game and he is backing his favourite NCP contestants as also those in Jamaat who are close to him. For his own reasons, Dr. Yunus is maintaining a political distance from the BNP, though the BNP is expected to emerge as the single largest party as per the opinion polls. BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia is critically ill in Dhaka. Her son Tarique Rahman is expected to arrive in Dhaka on December 25 and it is likely that he will stay back till the elections are over and give leadership to the BNP campaign in the absence of his mother.

Apart from virulent anti-India campaign and doing everything to destroy the legacy of the 1971 liberation struggle, the fundamentalist demonstrators are now targeting the cultural organisations and the artistes who are known for their faith in democracy and secular ideals. In 1971, just before the surrender of the Pakistan army on December 16, the rajakars carried out the killings of a large number of intellectuals of then East Bengal. This time, the killings have not taken place, but the fringe elements attacked and burnt the offices and full complex of two leading cultural groups of Dhaka Chayanaut and Udichi who have been active in the cultural arena of Bangladesh since its beginning. These two groups consist of the icons of the cultural world of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Udichi Shilpigoshthi took to the streets of the Dhaka on Saturday morning staging a protest march and rally to condemn the arson attack on its central office—an assault that, the organisation says, has wiped out 55 years of cultural archives and struck at the heart of the country’s progressive movement.

The procession began at 11:00 am from Paltan intersection and moved steadily toward Satyen Sen Chattar, in front of Udichi’s central office opposite the National Press Club. Artists, cultural workers, journalists, and supporters joined the march, holding placards and chanting slogans that linked the attack on Udichi to a broader threat against freedom of expression.

Slogans such as “Udichi Te Hamla Keno, Jobab Chai,” “Muktijuddher Chetona Hariye Jete Dibo Na,” and “Baul-er Upor Hamla Rukhte Hobe” echoed through the streets, framing the arson not as an isolated crime but as part of a sustained assault on the ideals of 1971 and the spirit of cultural resistance. Amit Ranjan Dey, general secretary of Udichi said that there are not random acts. These represent a deliberate threat to freedom of expression and democratic rights.

On Thursday, the fundamentalists burnt the offices of media group publishing Daily Star and Pratham Alo, the most popular Bengali daily in Bangladesh. The offices were burning for three hours and despite repeated calls, the police and fire brigade came only after after the hooligans left. The media people said that the extremists gave threats to the media group but still the administration did not take action. A recent Swedish think tank study has said that in Bangladesh, 80 per cent of the journalists feel threat to their security under the present Yunus regime.

So what can India do at this moment? The election process has begun. In a recent interview, Sheikh Hasina’s son Joy Wajed has said that the February 12 elections are illegal without the participation of Awami League. At this stage, India may not be able to do anything on that. But what certainly, India can do is to impress on the western governments, especially the USA to ensure that the elections are held in a transparent manner and the parties get a level playing field. The western nations are monitoring but they have little stake in Bangladesh polls. They are all busy with Ukraine war. So it is in India’s immediate interest to organize global opinion in favour of holding polls on February 12 in a peaceful fair manner. The holding of elections in Bangladesh on February 12 should be of big interest to India irrespective of nature of formation. If the uncertainty prolongs in the neighbouring country, that will endanger India’s security further. (IPA Service)