Amit Shah’s New Strategy For 2026 Bengal Assembly Polls Worries TMC

The two and half day visit by the union home minister Amit Shah to Kolkata during 2025 year end to explain to the West Bengal party leaders his new strategy to take on the ruling Trinamool Congress in the assembly elections scheduled in March-April 2026, has given a boost to the state BJP in imparting a big push to their campaign to finally dislodge the TMC from power in the 2026 polls. TMC led by the chief minister Mamata Banerjee is in power since 2011 elections and is now bidding for the fourth time to retain power.

BJP sources say that the meeting and the directions given by the chief BJP poll strategist focused on the immediate tasks for the BJP leaders and the cadres. The elaboration on the ground situation was made constituency wise and the new factors were mentioned which would help the BJP in combating the TMC in the marginal constituencies numbering between 50 and 60 out of the total of 294 constituencies in the state assembly.

The experts associated with the BJP high command mentioned two major factors favourable to the BJP this time. First, the deletion of a large number of voters in the electoral rolls as a result of the current SIR. The experts feel that this deletion has led to the ousting of a large number of ghost voters whose votes TMC used to use in the last two polls. Second, the BJP high command was of the view that like other parts of India, there has been an increasing Hindu consolidation in Bengal also. Even a five per cent switch of Hindu votes from TMC to BJP in 2026 polls, will make a big difference in results.

Based on these two advantages, the high command and strategist Amit Shah asked the BJP leaders to make a foolproof polling booth management on the election day so that the TMC is deprived of their earlier attempts to add to their votes in the last two hours through ghost voters. The BJP high command has assured the state BJP of all assistance in terms of deploying full RSS strength and adequate financial assistance. The high command has mentioned about the Bihar model and how many parts of this model which led to BJP victory in the recent Bihar assembly polls, can be replicated in Bengal.

BJP has divided Bengal into five zones and deployed party general secretaries in each of the zones. In the Kolkata metropolitan area and in South 24 Parganas, the party has appointed Himachal Pradesh’s organizational secretary M. Siddharthan. He will be assisted by the senior leader C T Ravi in Kolkata. In the Howrah, Hooghly and Medinipur region, Delhi’s organizational secretary Pawan Rana will be in charge while the BJP senior leader of Haryana Sanjay Bhatia will assist him. Many more state and union ministers will be associated with the state BJP’s electioneering in Bengal.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is arriving in Bengal for poll campaign on January 18 in Singur, Hooghly which came to prominence in 2007-08 when the TMC led movement drove out the Tatas from this place where the company had proposed to set up a car factory. That TMC movement in fact led the TMC to drive out the CPI(M) led Left Front Government from power in West Bengal in 2011 assembly elections after an interrupted rule of 34 years. PM has chosen Singur for his party rally because the BJP wants to project the CM Mamata Banerjee as an enemy of industry. For the last eighteen years, Singur remains desolate with no hope of any industry being set up.

Right now, both the TMC and the BJP have been campaigning in a big way expecting that the poll dates will be announced in February after the final role electoral rolls under SIR are published in the middle of February. The assembly elections are expected in Bengal in three phases and should be over by April 14, the Bengali new year, first of Baisakh. Amit Shah told the BJP leaders before leaving Kolkata to be prepared for BJP government after this election.

This comment of the home minister may be for encouraging the state leaders as both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah know that taking on the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is a Herculean task. They tried this in 2021 assembly polls but instead of 200 seats, projected by Shah and Modi, BJP got only 77. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC increased its seats by eleven while the BJP seats came down from 18 to 12. In all the last assembly by polls, the BJP lost to the TMC.. Further due to defections, the BJP strength in the assembly has come down from 77 to now 65 following defections And by poll defeats.

Then why the BJP high command, especially Amit Shah and PM Modi are expressing so much confidence before the assembly elections. There are some reasons. As explained before about the two new factors, an analysis of the performance of BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha polls show that the BJP was in winning position in 88 constituencies out of the total of 294. This was eleven more than 77 won by the BJP in 2021 assembly polls. Now if as a result of some shift of new Hindu votes to BJP takes place along with the TMC not having much success in casting false votes, the number may rise. The extent will solely depend on the BJP organizational machinery on the polling day which as of now is much weaker compared to TMC.

While the BJP is working on the basis of this new found enthusiasm, the TMC leadership is aware of all the plans of the Home Minister. Mamata is a better strategist compared to Amit Shah. So is the second in command of TMC Lok Sabha leader Abhishek Banerjee. Mamata has uncanny power to gauge the pulse of the voters. She is constantly touring the districts and appealing directly to the women. She has nurtured her support base of women, Muslims and the unorganized workers. This base is not being impacted much. The fact is that even if there is a shift in middle and lower middle class Hindu males towards BJP, that is not impacting the women.

The Bengali wives of both Hindus and Muslims are still stuck to Mamata and the voting pattern of their husbands is not influencing them. Mamata has given the rural women a sense of empowerment and they are proud of that. This I saw in my own eyes during my recent travel to Bengal’s district when a young wife of a shopkeeper in Hooghly district told me in front of her husband, a BJP supporter that all her friends would vote for Mamata, irrespective of what their husbands do. Many recent studies carried out show that Mamata has got unstinted support from the women in Bengal whatever might be the views of the women about the TMC government. Mamata is a phenomenon. No political leader can ignore the charisma of Mamata Banerjee.

BJP knows that they have no leader who can match the popular appeal of Mamata Banerjee. Before last assembly polls, the party tried to rope in former cricket captain Sourav Ganguly. Amit Shah went to his house for dinner and there was talk of a deal. But finally Sourav Ganguly backtracked. He refused to join BJP. From then, the search continues but there is no one in sight. TMC’s another advantage is having Abhishek as their leader. Abhishek is a great organizer. He has big ideas. He is a big asset to the TMC organization. He happened to be the nephew of the CM but he is leading the TMC on the basis of his own performance. The TMC workers at ground level love him.

This Mamata-Abhishek combination along with the consultant I-PAC is deadly. TMC is well prepared to meet the onslaught of Modi-Shah duo. The task for TMC is tougher for 2026 assembly polls after convincing wins by the BJP in all the recent state assembly polls. But Mamata hopes to score more goals this time. The question is the margin. For that, Bengal has to wait till the end of polls and the announcement of the results. (IPA Service)