Supreme Court Decision On Mamata’s Action During ED Raid Will Impact Bengal Polls

For the two main contenders in the coming assembly elections in West Bengal in March/ April 2026, every week is important in the present electoral battle as fresh developments take place needing for a relook at the poll strategy. The ruling Trinamool Congress led by the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the state BJP which is strategically led by the Home Minister Amit Shah are in a protracted battle in outdoing each other in perspective planning for the crucial polling days.

Early this month, the political drama over the raid by the central agency ED on the offices of I-Pac, TMC’s political consultant from 2019 and the Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s obstruction to that in person and taking the files herself from the raided office, is a major fresh development which is going to have its big impact on the coming polls. The petitions filed by both sides have been heard by the Supreme Court bench and the next hearing is scheduled for February 3. The observations of the apex court judges were not favourable to the CM. The Court felt that ED should not be prevented from doing its job and the CM did not act properly. The notices were issued. It seems that the hearing will continue for some more days and then the order will be given.

As things stand now, the assembly elections are due in West Bengal in the first half of April. That was the indication given by Amit Shah at the end of his visit to Kolkata in December end. The Election Commission is expected to issue its notification for polls in March first half. That way, if the ED case prolongs for two more hearings, it is possible for the Supreme Court to issue verdict before the poll notification. If the verdict is not favourable to CM, the issue is what will be the nature of stricture? It can be strict warning or if the documents prove that I Pac was involved in money laundering, the CM may face harsher action.

But there is a catch. While the centre and the BJP will make all efforts to see that the case is disposed of early and the order is given before the poll notification, the TMC with its battery of eminent lawyers will try to ensure that the case prolongs and even if the case hearings end, the verdict is reserved till the elections are over. This is a sensible plea, If the judges feel that the order should not be used to influence the outcome of the polls, they can very well reserve the order and announce it after the polls are over. Constitutionally, this will be proper, the judges may agree to it. But if they come to the opinion that the evidences are of serious nature, the bench may very well announce the order before the notification.

So for BJP, the hope is now for a verdict which goes against Mamata and they are desperate to ensure that the Supreme Court bench announces that soon after the hearings are concluded. The BJP poll strategy is being reoriented in the light of this new development based on what Amit Shah formulated for them in the December end meeting. Home Minister and the experts were optimistic about the success of BJP in unseating Mamata government in 2026 polls in West Bengal on the basis of their own expert studies which showed that a five per cent switch from TMC votes to BJP would be adequate to defeat the TMC government.

The calculation goes this way. In 2021 assembly elections, BJP got 77 seats out of the total 294. But in78 seats, BJP lost to TMC by a margin of less than ten per cent. So, if there is a switch of five per cent votes from TMC to BJP, that helps BJP in getting 78 seats more. This makes the total of BJP seats in new assembly to 155 as against the required majority figure

But how to bring about that 5 per cent shift in the next two and half months before the polling? BJP’s analysis is that the Hindu votes are consolidating more in the rural and semi urban areas. The support will be more in the coming elections. Then, the SIR process is expected to weed out 1 to 2 per cent of the voters of the Trinamool vote bank. Then there will be division in the Muslim vote bank of TMC as a result of the presence of AIMIM in a big way and the active work of the expelled TMC MLA Humayun Kabir in the Muslim dominated constituencies. As per this understanding, the poll results in Bihar and Maharashtra have shown how AIMIM has won seats hurting the Congress and RJD. This phenomenon will be evident in Bengal in 2026 polls damaging severely the Muslim vote bank of TMC.

All these trends have the potential to lead to a switch over of 3 to 4 per cent of the votes from TMC to BJP. And with this, if the Supreme Court verdict goes against Mamata and I-Pac, that will help further erosion of TMC power base. The state BJP leaders are hoping for some action against I-Pac supremo Pratik Jain. If he is arrested, that will be a big setback for the immaculate poll planning of TMC for which Pratik Jain is known. In fact, the BJP high command’s objective is to deactivate I-Pac before the polls. The central agencies might try to do so after the Supreme Court order if that turns favourable to them

All these dreams of BJP will go haywire if the Supreme Court bench gets evidence regarding ED’s political motives as alleged by Mamata and no trace of any evidence connecting I Pac to money laundering is found. TMC has counter plan to meet any eventuality. Further in the last two years since the2024 elections, the BJP lost all assembly by polls and the voting percentage went down substantially. So the ground situation must change in a big way in BJP’s favour to bring about the shift the BJP is dreaming.

Nearly two and half months before the polls, the situation is Bengal is really explosive as both TMC and the state BJP aided by their high command led by the Home Minister is bent on taking every possible measure to win 2026 polls in Bengal. After the win in Bihar assembly polls and convincing victory in Maharashtra local polls, the BJP and its central backers are not ready to lose Bengal again. For Mamata, the 2026 battle has emerged far more challenging compared to 2021 assembly polls. (IPA Service)