North East India Is Emerging As The Battle Ground For Power Between U.S. And China

The developments in eastern and north eastern parts of India are getting increasing attention from Washington in the context of China’s planned moves to expand its control in Bangladesh and Myanmar, the two countries bordering the Indian states.US President Donald Trump’s unusual message sent to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 4 after the BJP victory in Bengal and Assam polls and the active participation of the U.S. ambassador in India Sergio Gor on May 12 at the oath taking ceremony of the Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, are ominous pointers to increasing U.S. interests in the North East.

Soon after the assembly elections results were out on May 4, President Trump congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi on what the White House described as a “historic, and decisive election victory” in West Bengal. The White House also mentioned just last month, on their phone call, President Trump expressed to PM Modi his admiration and how lucky India is to have him as the leader Such profuse praise for the Indian PM on the occasion of the BJP victory in local state polls, was never seen earlier. But this timing of Trump’s message relating to the BJP victory in Bengal and Assam polls, has its immediate geopolitical significance.

Why the U.S. President Donald Trump is so ecstatic on BJP’s victory in the assembly polls in Bengal and Assam? The immediate reason is that with the two states bordering Bangladesh, the US is now in an advantageous position to pursue its strategic programme to combat Chinese influence in the region which includes India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Earlier, the South Asia division of the U.S. government was not very proactive in monitoring the developments in this region as Trump was too busy with other more important developments. But after the coming into power of an elected government in February this year and the speedy expansion of China in Bangladesh, have induced the U.S. South Asia division officials to focus in a big way on Bangladesh and the NE region in the last three months. Both the U.S. envoys in New Delhi and Dhaka are doing their best to influence the policy making in both the governments.

Right now, for the U.S. think tank, the big worry is China’s big initiative in the Bay of Bengal zone. Myanmar has an elected government dominated by the army with China having good influence. In Bangladesh also, after Tarique Rahman took over as the Prime Minister, China has outsmarted the US despite all efforts by its new US ambassador in Dhaka.. Tarique is amiable to the USA and he is keeping the U.S. in good humour, but effectively, the policies and the projects, the Bangladesh government is pursuing are favouring China. And all these Bangladesh initiatives have been adversely affecting Indian interests, though officially, New Delhi is taking a low key posture.

Last week, Bangladesh foreign minister Khalur Rahman visited China and held detailed talks about extensive cooperation between both the governments. The most important was the talks on Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. This project in another form was supposed to be done in cooperation with India during Sheikh Hasina’s regime. Earlier, the interim President of Bangladesh Dr. Muhammad Yunus mooted this idea during his China visit in March 2025. This has been followed by Tarique government during the recent visit of the Bangladesh foreign minister in a more broader manner.

As per the understanding, under the project, Bangladesh will excavate about 102 km to raise the depth of the Teesta river and 203 km of dam will be built to protect the river. This is a massive project and Indian part of the Teesta river will be impacted if the project is implemented. So far only a week has passed after the Beijing meeting, but the Indian officials are getting ready to take up with the Bangladesh officials their points of reservation about the draft guidelines for the project.

Bangladesh shares an international border of 4,096 km with five Indian states, Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Mizoram also shares a border with Myanmar just as Bangladesh also has a border with Myanmar through Chittagong hill tracts. The new BJP government in Bengal has taken a decision to give land to the BSF within 45 days for speeding up the fencing work so as to prevent the entry of the infiltrators from Bangladesh. Bangladesh government has warned that its border force will be alert to prevent any push ins organized by the Indian side. That way, the tension along the border may intensify once the fencing work starts.

Bengal acts as a gateway to North East and there is a small area called Chicken’s Neck through Siliguri corridor which has got international focus involving mainly USA and China. Former interim President of Bangladesh even invited China to be a part of the Bangladesh project up to Bay of Bengal through Chicken’s Neck. The present Tarique government is not making such statements on the lines of Dr. Yunus, but if the tensions between India and Bangladesh increase after this BJP win in Bengal, that will only lead to more anti- India stance of the Tarique government and help China.

For Indian foreign ministry, the greater worry is the possibility of an axis between China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Right now, a military delegation from Pakistan is in Bangladesh for the training of the Bangladesh army. Bangladesh army seniors have also visited Pakistan recently. The collaboration is continuing, though the intensity is less compared to the last days of Dr. Yunus when he opened up every area of the Dhaka government to Pakistan.

Indian policy makers have to be careful not to get involved in this US-China battle for supremacy in Bangladesh and Myanmar. Narendra Modi government has to look after its own interests. US policy is to take India along as a partner in its strategic battle with China. U.S. ambassador Sergio Gor has made it plain to the Indian officials. Narendra Modi government should take the initiative to open dialogue with Bangladesh to ease tensions. The border fencing is fine but there should not be any big attempt for push ins from Indian side to Bangladesh. Allowing the situation on the borders at normal level, will serve Indian interests best. (IPA Service)