Mending Fences With Bangladesh: Modi Has Taken The Right Move But The Task Is Too Tough

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the right move in sending a personal message to the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh Tarique Rahman by stating that “your victory is a testimony to the trust and confidence reposed by the people of Bangladesh in your leadership and their mandate for your vision to take the country forward on the path of peace, stability and prosperity”. This is a virtual endorsement of the legality of the verdict and PM’s full confidence in the role of the new PM of the BNP led government in improving the bilateral relations between the two countries.

It is clear that at the moment, there is no option left for the Indian government other than going the wholehog with the new BNP government and PM Rahman is the best bet. But the hard reality is that at the present moment, Tarique Rahman has no option but to vigorously pursue the issue of extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India to Dhaka as per the Tribunal and then the Court order as also the commitment of the BNP during the election campaign.

For BNP, the main worrying factor is the highly energised Jamaat E Islami which as the second largest party has 77 seats of its alliance and which will use every step of the PM Tarique favourable to India to propagate that Tarique is going the way of Hasina. India is using him against Bangladesh’s interests. So Tarique’s hands are tied. Even if he wants a friendly approach towards India, he has to pass the test of his Bangladesh loyalty as the Jamaat is sitting over his neck both in Parliament and outside in the streets which decide the fate of regimes in Bangladesh politics.

Indian foreign ministry has seasoned diplomats. So it was good to see that the foreign secretary Vikram Misry very silently met Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman on Tuesday itself during the day of oath taking by Tarique Rahman. This was the most significant meeting because foreign secretary knew the person who would be wielding real powers in deciding the course of India-Bangladesh relations and he would have to be pampered. It is not known how the Jamaat leader reacted, but for Indian officials, this interaction with Jamaat has to be a part of diplomatic process if India really want early improvement in bilateral relations.

Right now, let me explain why Jamaat’s role is very important for maintaining security on Indian borders along Bangladesh. In February 12 elections in all the birder districts of Bangladesh, Jamaat has done extremely well leading to apprehensions among the Indian home ministry officials, especially the BSF honchos of the eastern region. In Khulna, Rajsahi, Rangpur districts of Bangladesh bordering Wet Bengal, Jamaat has swept. For instance in Khulna, Jamaat got 25 out of 36 seats. These border districts harbour lot of anti-Indian elements including insurgents who were earlier sheltered by Jamaat during the BNP-Jamaat rule. Sheikh Hasina stopped it after 2009. In fact, the Jamaat was disallowed to operate later, its foreign funds were banned. Now with full domination of border districts, the hooligan elements of Jamaat will have a free play unless they are restrained from the top. This has been done both at the level of BNP government and also at the level of Jamaat leadership. Indian government can ensure that better by keeping close coordination with Jamaat.

Let me mention a few points which are not discussed at all. Bangladesh constitutionally is a secular republic that also designates Islam as a state religion. Out of the 18 crore population, nearly 17 crore are Muslims and nearly one minorities, mostly Hindus. Like other Islamic countries, there is always a group of fundamentalists in Bangladesh. Jamaat has got many sane elements who are rational towards the minorities, at the same time, there are fringe groups who are rabid anti Hindus and anti-Indian. In India, we have a secular constitution. There is no state religion, but still the fringe elements of the BJP belonging to RSS and Bajrang Dal are rabid anti-Muslims despite the fact that Muslims constitute more than 14 per cent of the Indian population.

Prime Minister Office (PMO) officials have made enough mistakes in the last eighteen months after the installation of the interim government in Bangladesh. PM Narendra Modi did not respond to Dr. Yunus request for meeting during his term. Indian PM deliberately changed his schedule in New York UN meeting to avoid meeting Dr. Yunus. Home Minister Amit Shah called the Bangladeshis termites during the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign. All these mistakes intensified anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Even the earlier pro India elements in Bangladesh turned anti-Indian. Lastly, the Modi Government inspired BCCI decision to disallow the Bangladeshi cricketer Mustafizur Rahman from playing in IPL ignited the anti-India feelings further. Modi led government has to pay for these for some more time even though now suddenly PM is going overboard to hug Tarique which he did with Nawaz Sharief of Pakistan in his initial period of PM.

The improvement of ties with Bangladesh will be a long tortured journey. Indian officials have to cultivate both BNP PM and opposition Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman. At the same time, India should ensure that talks other than Sheikh Hasina extradition start in right earnest to improve the relations. Especially, the economic issues should get focus now. Hasina issue will take long and by starting the healing process with economic assistance, India may build the base for a viable solution of Hasina extradition issue. Both BNP and Jamaat have to be persuaded by India to opt for this approach. (IPA Service)