Facing Major Challenge From China, India Set To Improve Bilateral Relations With Myanmar

Facing the big possibility of China taking control of the new Junta government in Myanmar which took office last month, Indian policy makers are now very keen to give a big push to the India-Myanmar relations covering both economy and security aspects. Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing is in India visit from May 30 to June 3 to have extensive discussions with the Indian ministers and officials to take the bilateral relations to a new high.

President Hlaing will be meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 1 after his visit to Bodh Gaya during week end. He will be visiting Mumbai also on June 2 to have talks with the chambers and the interested industry people for seeking investments in Myanmar. President of Myanmar will like to give the impression that he is the elected head of Myanmar after a normal elections and he has full legitimacy to talk as the head of the state.

President Hlaing took oath on April 10 this year. China was the only country sending a high level delegation while India sent a junior minister of the external affairs ministry Kirti Vardhan Singh. India has so far not given official recognition to the new Junta backed party government but Indian officials have been dealing with Myanmar de facto formally taking into account the big stake of India in this neighbouring country. Myanmar President knows the compulsions of Indian foreign policy in view of big Chinese presence in his country. So he will be seeking full recognition from the government of India at his meeting with the PM Narendra Modi. It is not yet clear whether PM Modi will agree to that at the moment, but it is sure, India will seek to woo Myanmar President through other assurances, especially in economic areas.

Myanmar President Hlaing was charged earlier for genocide. In fact, the human right group Myanmar for Justice has already questioned how Indian government can host such a army general who was responsible for the killing of democracy in his country by ousting the democratically elected National Unity Government through February 2021 coup. Significantly, a petition has been pending in Indonesian Court accusing the Myanmar President for genocide.

As of now, no western nation including the USA has recognized the new Myanmar President, they have also not given any credibility to the election results, calling it a junta organized rigged elections.. China, on the other hand, gave credibility to the elections and even praised efforts of the newly elected regime for their efforts in ensuring peace and stability in Myanmar as also the regime’s keen interest in Belt and Road projects of China. The transactionist nature of Chinese diplomacy was apparent from the beginning after the junta coup in February 2021. China was interested in protecting its investments and the work on the China organized Belt and Road Projects. Chinese leadership ignored the civilian killings by the junta in the last five years since the coup.

For India, the dilemma was acute. India has major investments in Myanmar. The country has to protect them. So the government maintained contacts with the Junta administration but did not identify with the regime, while China took all the advantage by identifying with the junta and arranging for all protection of its investments including the expansion of Belt projects. Further, China bargained with army led government by using its control over the rebels dominating the border provinces connected to China. These pro-China rebels even got arms and ammunitions from the Chinese sources.

While China has a long term interest in the political future of Myanmar since it has borders with Myanmar and has huge investments, for Russia, the interest is all defence supplies related. President Vladimir Putin took an active role in supplying arms and ammunitions to the junta led government after the arms supplies from the western sources dwindled following sanctions by the western countries. Russia has been a big beneficiary of the Myanmar civil war as the major supplier of arms, apart from China.

India shares a 1,643-kilometre land border with Myanmar through Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. The instability has affected connectivity initiatives such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and raised concerns over cross-border insurgency and trafficking. India is the shelter of more than 80,000 Rohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar. India has been making efforts to see that India is not totally marginalized during the junta regime by China. But despite all efforts, India is now a minor player in Myanmar politics compared to neighbouring China.

In the army manipulated rigged elections,, the results of which were announced on January 29 and 30 this year, the army aligned United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 232 out of 263 seats in the lower house and 109 of 157 seats in the upper house.

The Suu Kyi led National League of Democracy which was the ruling party before the 2021 coup, was able to organize resistance along with other civil society organisations as also students, but the nature of resistance varied from province to province. In the provinces adjoining China, the rebels were helped by the Chinese army thereby helping the process of their consolidation. In the army organized elections, Su Kyi’s NLD was banned along with other opposition parties. The former Prime Minister is in jail with a bad health condition.

From the beginning of the coup in February 2021, China has been playing a dual role since it needs the support of the junta to protect its projects under China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China even employed its own forces to protect its projects. The junta in fact allowed free mixing of its army troops with the Chinese security forces even when the junta troops were engaged with the pro-China rebels. That way, China has the double advantage of having friendly generals within the Myanmar army as also big economic control over the projects under Belt and Road Initiatives.

India, as of now, may not emerge as the competitor to China in Myanmar at the same level, but India can promote its interests in a bigger manner if the present regime remains friendly. That way, India is expected to respond to Myanmar President’s request for more Indian participation in Myanmar’s industrial development. There are some core areas where the Indian companies are already participating. Similarly, there are big mineral deposits in Myanmar. India can assist in their development and production. Indian side has its list where India can help Myanmar development to the benefit of both.

Indian policy makers are pinning much hopes on this visit of Myanmar President. Indian companies have high credibility in Myanmar industry. In many respects, their products are far more competitive in quality and prices compared to China. If Myanmar regime wants, Myanmar market can open up to Indian products. That will be an effective manner of boosting the bilateral cooperation. President Hliang’s talks with PM Narendra Modi on Monday will have wider ramifications in boosting bilateral relations. (IPA Service)