By Nitya Chakraborty

Facing the big possibility of China taking control of the new Junta government in Myanmar which took office last month, Indian policy makers are now very keen to give a big push to the India-Myanmar relations covering both economy and security aspects. Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing is in India visit from May 30 to June 3 to have extensive discussions with the Indian ministers and officials to take the bilateral relations to a new high.

President Hlaing will be meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 1 after his visit to Bodh Gaya during week end. He will be visiting Mumbai also on June 2 to have talks with the chambers and the interested industry people for seeking investments in Myanmar. President of Myanmar will like to give the impression that he is the elected head of Myanmar after a normal elections and he has full legitimacy to talk as the head of the state.

President Hlaing took oath on April 10 this year. China was the only country sending a high level delegation while India sent a junior minister of the external affairs ministry Kirti Vardhan Singh. India has so far not given official recognition to the new Junta backed party government but Indian officials have been dealing with Myanmar de facto formally taking into account the big stake of India in this neighbouring country. Myanmar President knows the compulsions of Indian foreign policy in view of big Chinese presence in his country. So he will be seeking full recognition from the government of India at his meeting with the PM Narendra Modi. It is not yet clear whether PM Modi will agree to that at the moment, but it is sure, India will seek to woo Myanmar President through other assurances, especially in economic areas.

Myanmar President Hlaing was charged earlier for genocide. In fact, the human right group Myanmar for Justice has already questioned how Indian government can host such a army general who was responsible for the killing of democracy in his country by ousting the democratically elected National Unity Government through February 2021 coup. Significantly, a petition has been pending in Indonesian Court accusing the Myanmar President for genocide.

As of now, no western nation including the USA has recognized the new Myanmar President, they have also not given any credibility to the election results, calling it a junta organized rigged elections.. China, on the other hand, gave credibility to the elections and even praised efforts of the newly elected regime for their efforts in ensuring peace and stability in Myanmar as also the regime’s keen interest in Belt and Road projects of China. The transactionist nature of Chinese diplomacy was apparent from the beginning after the junta coup in February 2021. China was interested in protecting its investments and the work on the China organized Belt and Road Projects. Chinese leadership ignored the civilian killings by the junta in the last five years since the coup.

For India, the dilemma was acute. India has major investments in Myanmar. The country has to protect them. So the government maintained contacts with the Junta administration but did not identify with the regime, while China took all the advantage by identifying with the junta and arranging for all protection of its investments including the expansion of Belt projects. Further, China bargained with army led government by using its control over the rebels dominating the border provinces connected to China. These pro-China rebels even got arms and ammunitions from the Chinese sources.

While China has a long term interest in the political future of Myanmar since it has borders with Myanmar and has huge investments, for Russia, the interest is all defence supplies related. President Vladimir Putin took an active role in supplying arms and ammunitions to the junta led government after the arms supplies from the western sources dwindled following sanctions by the western countries. Russia has been a big beneficiary of the Myanmar civil war as the major supplier of arms, apart from China.

India shares a 1,643-kilometre land border with Myanmar through Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. The instability has affected connectivity initiatives such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and raised concerns over cross-border insurgency and trafficking. India is the shelter of more than 80,000 Rohingya Muslim refugees from Myanmar. India has been making efforts to see that India is not totally marginalized during the junta regime by China. But despite all efforts, India is now a minor player in Myanmar politics compared to neighbouring China.

In the army manipulated rigged elections,, the results of which were announced on January 29 and 30 this year, the army aligned United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won 232 out of 263 seats in the lower house and 109 of 157 seats in the upper house.

The Suu Kyi led National League of Democracy which was the ruling party before the 2021 coup, was able to organize resistance along with other civil society organisations as also students, but the nature of resistance varied from province to province. In the provinces adjoining China, the rebels were helped by the Chinese army thereby helping the process of their consolidation. In the army organized elections, Su Kyi’s NLD was banned along with other opposition parties. The former Prime Minister is in jail with a bad health condition.

From the beginning of the coup in February 2021, China has been playing a dual role since it needs the support of the junta to protect its projects under China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China even employed its own forces to protect its projects. The junta in fact allowed free mixing of its army troops with the Chinese security forces even when the junta troops were engaged with the pro-China rebels. That way, China has the double advantage of having friendly generals within the Myanmar army as also big economic control over the projects under Belt and Road Initiatives.

India, as of now, may not emerge as the competitor to China in Myanmar at the same level, but India can promote its interests in a bigger manner if the present regime remains friendly. That way, India is expected to respond to Myanmar President’s request for more Indian participation in Myanmar’s industrial development. There are some core areas where the Indian companies are already participating. Similarly, there are big mineral deposits in Myanmar. India can assist in their development and production. Indian side has its list where India can help Myanmar development to the benefit of both.

Indian policy makers are pinning much hopes on this visit of Myanmar President. Indian companies have high credibility in Myanmar industry. In many respects, their products are far more competitive in quality and prices compared to China. If Myanmar regime wants, Myanmar market can open up to Indian products. That will be an effective manner of boosting the bilateral cooperation. President Hliang’s talks with PM Narendra Modi on Monday will have wider ramifications in boosting bilateral relations. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

With the U.S. President Donald Trump himself downgrading the status of the four nation Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), why is Indian government spending so much of its precious time on QUAD meetings? It is sheer wastage of time for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi as also Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar. US state secretary Marco Rubio came to India on a four day visit beginning May 23. He left on May 26 after the QUAD foreign ministers meeting. Before that on Saturday, itself Rubio met PM Modi. He got what he wanted, but What was the gain of India?

The only important outcome of QUAD meeting on Tuesday was the signing of India-US critical minerals framework. The US which is desperately looking for supremacy in the domain of critical minerals after being cornered by China, is seeking such agreements with the concerned countries. Such agreements will be signed by QUAD also with other likeminded countries. India has good deposits of critical minerals. India will be in a better position if the officials can do a hard bargain with USA about the development of the critical minerals and its use. India can make use of this as a bargain for getting new technology.

QUAD consists of big brother USA, India, Japan and Australia. Indian foreign minister Dr. S Jaishankar hosted the meeting on May 26 and as usual the Indo-Pacific security was discussed. The QUAD nations agreed on Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Initiative and on a Common Operating Picture in the maritime domain. This is intended against China, though China’s name has not been mentioned.

Now in the context of Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15, this Indo-Pacific security issue also is not a big issue for Trump. In the Beijing summit, Indo-Pacific region security did not get any priority from Trump. This was mentioned in general, but no special emphasis was there from the US President’s side. Trump was more interested in major economic issues as also big political issues like Iran war and Taiwan. Japanese Prime Minister wanted Trump to take up the issue in a big way but Trump just ignored Japanese advice.

That way, even this surveillance mechanism will be used by USA only, India can not expect any real help from USA if any such eventuality in maritime waters against China arises. India has to depend more on the country’s own experts to acquire maximum info on maritime situation.

The moot question is in the changed geo political situation and the bilateral relationship between China and USA, the earlier equations are not working. India will have to reassess the situation in Indo-Pacific from its own perspective and deal with the USA in the region on the basis of strategic autonomy.

President Trump revived QUAD grouping during his first term in 2017 but in the second term, till now, no QUAD summit has been held. Trump indicated that QUAD summit would be held in New Delhi in 2025 but it was not held. Now in 2026, foreign ministers meeting was held on Tuesday, but there is no indication of the holding of any summit. What is the point of carrying on QUAD when the head of the group himself refuses to hold summit.

In 2026, PM Narendra Modi’s diplomatic calendar is full. India is hosting BRICS summit on September 14 and 15 this year. Before that on June 15-17, the G7 meeting will be held in France. President Emanuel Macron has invited Indian PM to attend that. Thereafter, SCO summit is at Kyrgyzstan on August 31 and September 1. Indian PM has been invited there also. Similarly apart from G7 in Paris, Trump himself is hosting G-20 summit at Florida on December 14 and 15 this year. PM Modi is also expected to be there at Florida though officially, it is too early for India to confirm the visit.

Since the QUAD FM’s meeting was over on May 26 and the summit may not take place, India should focus all its energy on the success of the BRICS summit on September 14 and 15 this year. BRICS has eleven members now including Iran and some other Gulf countries. PM Modi has to work hard to restore his status which he has lost in the recent period by identifying fully with the US position. India has given up on its strategic autonomy vis a vis USA. It is time to restore that and present India as a strong nation defending the interests of global south. India should give up this QUAD mirage and solely concentrate on the success of the coming BRICS summit. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The joint declaration made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and the visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin after their summit in Beijing on May 20 has major ramifications on the global geopolitics in the context of the present unilateral actions of the U.S. President Donald Trump including the launching of war against Iran which still is m not over.

The main thrust is the decision of Russia and China to set up a joint front against the USA blaming the Trump regime for global return to the law of the jungle. Significantly, this declaration was made by China and Russia after five days of the Xi-Trump summit held in Beijing on May 15. Though there was no joint declaration, both sides expressed happiness at the continuing improvement in the bilateral relations between China and the USA. Though the breakthrough took place only in business and economic discussions, there were much discussions on Iran war and Taiwan also. However, officially, Chinese side gave no details about the outcome.

In May 20 summit, however, President Xi came out more openly on Iran war and said that in Iran, further conflict was inadvisable and a ceasefire was necessary. President Xi said that a comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency, resuming hostilities is even more inadvisable and maintaining negotiations is particularly important. What was more significant that in the joint statement, China and Russia took aim at Trump’s plans for a US$ 175 billion Golden Dome defence system which would create a new missile field in the middle east. Both the leaders also criticized the expiry of the last US-Russia arms control treaty fell to the wayside in February 2026 when the U.S. President did not respond to Moscow’s proposal for extension.

The joint declaration of Russia and China is going to have its impact on the present peace making efforts on Iran war. Trump discussed the issue with President Xi on May 15 but it was not fruitful. On May 20, President Xi made his position on Iran war more clearer by saying that negotiations and not war have to be the instrument for ending Iran war. So whatever claims, Trump is now making that he is ready for fiercer attack against Iran if Tehran does not agree immediately to a deal, his options are not working.

Trump also knows that he has to agree to a solution on the basis of three draft proposals, Trump’s own peace plan, Tehran’s peace plan and China’s four point formula. Both Trump and Tehran have to agree to a compromise solution to end the war. The joint declaration of China and Russia is a strong reminder to Trump that he has to resort to negotiations only for ending the Iran war.

Among the chief topics of discussion was the energy sector, which Putin called the “driving force of economic cooperation” in Russian-Chinese relations. China asserted itself as a major buyer of Russian oil and trading partner after Western countries largely cut economic ties with Moscow in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

According to Al Zajeera correspondent in Beijing, while the two leaders planned to sign some 40 agreements covering everything from the economy and tourism to education, energy security remained Putin’s priority. “Since the war in Ukraine, any gas sales that were previously heading to Europe, that is all dried up, and Russia is in desperate need of revenue to replace that,” she said. The talks did not lead to a new consensus on a long-discussed gas pipeline known as Power of Siberia

However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that the two sides had reached a “basic understanding” on the pipeline, including its route, but that there was no “clear timeline” for a rollout. All indications suggest that despite keen Russian interest in this gas pipeline, Putin failed to persuade President Xi to agree the implementation of the project on a priority basis. Russia needs it now as its West European customers have dried up, but China has its own considerations, therefore is the delay and no finalization of the much expected deal.

China analysts have observed that President Xi treated President Trump as equal and gave him gala reception as the head of the country with largest economic power. China had lot of expectations from Trump from the summit. But in Putin’s case, Russia is a lesser power now compared to Soviet days and also Putin is under economic stress. He needs President Xi more than China needs Russia. That way, President Xi also while giving Putin all the due respect and the fanfare of the celebrations, made it clear that China is the big brother. Putin is reconciled to it as that is the ground reality.

Xi, for his part, said Beijing and Moscow had deepened “political mutual trust and strategic cooperation” in a world that is “increasingly chaotic” and where “hegemony is overwhelming”. The comments made it clear that “Beijing and Moscow share a depth of established trust that simply does not exist between China and the US”. . But at the same time, President Xi is ambitious and he is looking for taking China forward to emerge as the supreme economic power by 2049, the centenary year of the Communist China. His vision is primarily directed that way, the other issues and partners are secondary. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

This is the season of high level summits. On May 14 and 15, U.S President Donald Trump visited Beijing and had ‘ fantastic’ talks, according to the U.S. President, Chinese media also went overboard explaining the great possibilities of China-US cooperation in political and economic spheres and also how important this was in the present state of global situation. Russian President Vladimir Putin was on a visit on May 20 to China and had very fruitful talks in strengthening the relations between the two big powers.

It is fine. All three big powers are working hard to improve their respective bilateral relations, nothing wrong in it. The moves for a friendly relationship between the three big powers are always welcome in the present unsettled world. But amidst all these, the Americans are pursuing with vengeance the implementation of their programme of bringing regime change in the Latin American region through their Trump doctrine. Right now, the focus is on Cuba after the US success in Venezuela.

It is ironic that the same day Trump was in Beijing talking with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on international issues including the war in Iran and the issue of Taiwan, in Havana, the CIA director John Ratcliffe was talking to the Cuba’s senior army officials about the need for bringing about fundamental changes in the communist nation including the changes in army leadership, closure of Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies and the adoption of economic reforms as desired by the USA.

CIA director’s sudden visit without formal clearance from the top Cuban leadership was a follow up of the Trump’s programme to convert Cuba into a most investor friendly nation with the setting up of more entertainment zones as also industries financed by the big US corporates. All these moves for regime change are taking place in an economic environment when the US blockade and sanctions have exhausted the common citizens. The fuel crisis has reached its nadir. The power cuts are taking place for long hours and essential commodities are lacking.

Cuban President has called for all support from the country’s citizens, but the situation is very grim if the economic blockade continues. Cuba needs big support from China, Russia and its other well wishers in the Latin American region. Mexico, Brazil and even Venezuela have been helping, but there is a limit for them. The non official organisations are also doing their best, but the needs are so big that only the lift of the US blockade can bring back normalcy in the battered Cuban economy.

And there the question of Chinese assistance comes. President Xi Jinping could have taken up the Cuban blockade issue boldly with President Trump in his summit discussions, but there was no indication in what Trump said latter or Chinese media reports mentioned that there was any concrete discussions between Trump and Xi on Cuban blockade issue. The present Cuban crisis is due to the US blockade and only Trump can withdraw that. Both Xi and Putin can press Trump on that, but they have not done so. President Xi bears more responsibility here as Cuba is still a communist nation and China also calls itself a communist Party led nation. It was the moral responsibility of President Xi to take up the issue seriously with Trump, but he failed as the leader of the strongest communist nation to do his duty.

The London based The Guardian rightly wrote while the world watched the pomp of Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing, the US was turning up the pressure thousands of miles away. Its oil blockade has plunged Cuba into a humanitarian crisis, sparking nationwide blackouts that have prompted rare protests, closing schools and universities and leaving hospitals battling to treat patients. Surveillance flights are circling. US media reported this weekend that federal prosecutors are preparing an indictment for Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president and brother of Fidel. Mr Trump has casually observed, while bragging about the kidnapping of Venezuela’s then leader Nicolás Maduro in January, that “Cuba is next”.

The US policy now is not to engage in any direct war in any country of Latin America. CIA and the US companies will do the job of finding out collaborators within the pink or Left regimes still governing a few nations. Mexico and Brazil are big countries with popular leaders. So Trump is not focusing attention on these big nations. The focus is on small nations, especially those who are having severe economic problems leading to resentment among the citizens. In the recent Presidential elections, Trump administrations backed the far right parties and got good dividends. For Cuba, the task is to divide the leadership and to look out for yesmen so that through them, the regime change programme can be implemented.

In Cuba, President is trying his best to control the situation but he has his limits also. The economic situation has gone out of control and it will worsen further as the US sanctions and economic blockade continue. Only a major political intervention by a powerful country like China can persuade Trump to reduce the intensity of blockade to the relief of the common Cuban citizens. So far China is not in a mood to do that. That is the tragedy. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Now that the U.S. President Donald Trump is back to Washington DC. After his two day summit talks in Beijing on May 14 and 15, it is appropriate to decode the gains of the summit. There were four major issues– Taiwan, Iran war, trade deals and facilitating more business for the American high tech companies focusing on AI. What then was the final outcome of the Beijing summit on these issues?

To start with, it should be mentioned that both world leaders met in the Chinese capital under differing circumstances. While President Trump was under tremendous pressure to show results to his domestic MAGA base, President Xi Jinping had no such compulsions. He took a long term view and was not in any hurry to clinch any deal under pressure. At the same time, he also acted to ensure that the global politics remains more favourable for China’s advancement to become a more powerful economy and that can be possible only with the cooperation from the U.S. President.

If an analysis is made of the official Chinese media, it is seen that the Chinese side sees the Beijing summit as the new positioning of U.S.-China relations representing a recalibration of each side’s goals and modes of interaction under new circumstances. Global Times, the official English daily of the Chinese Communist Party went gaga in its editorial on May 16 saying the proposal to build a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability underscores China’s consistent commitment to head of state diplomacy and its active efforts to develop a China-US relationship that is strategic, constructive and stable so that positive interaction between the two countries can bring greater stability to the unsettled world.

These are all high sounding words of policy nature without specifically mentioning what China agreed to offer to Trump or what was China’s actual gains. But through the tone and terming the Summit outcome as historic, the Chinese side is more emphasizing on the long term possibilities of a better bilateral relationship. President Trump is facing mid term polls in America in November this year. Less than six months are left. He has to show to the electorate that he is a winner. XI is leading a one party government. He has no need for such showmanship.

As against the Chinese position mostly based on long term prospects, the US side reaction was mostly from Trump through his interviews in his plane on the way to Washington. As usual, the comments were in superlatives in his usual style like fantastic. Trump also said that he and XI had settled some of the issues which no other US leader could have done. He also mentioned to Fox News he massive business deals that had been done in the interest of the American business.

The US side has agreed to define the building of a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability” as the new positioning of bilateral ties. US President Donald Trump said that China-US relations will get “better than ever before.” Responding to media questions on Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that bilateral relations are important and constructive, adding that world stability is in everyone’s interest.

Now as regards the major issues which were under discussion, Iran war was the most important as Trump was looking for some Chinese help to persuade the rigid Iranian leadership to agree to the peace terms offered by Trump. Taking into account Chinese media silence on this issue and Trump saying that China was equally interested in the end of Iran war and Iran not going nuclear, the hard truth was that China reiterated its four point peace plan and there was not big progress in their talks on Iran. But Trump got assurance that China would make all efforts to see that Iran dilutes its nuclear programme

Now after his return, stories are coming out in US media that Trump is going for major action against Iran if Iran does not agree to peace formula, are all sponsored. Trump is not in a position to start a full scale war against Iran again. He is still depending on China to help him in baling out of the Iran mess which he himself created. President Putin also is in touch with President Xi and they are both working on a compromise solution to ensure that both the US and Iran can project themselves as winners to their respective citizens.

After Iran, Taiwan is the big issue and it was most important for President Xi jinping who specifically mentioned this as the core issue for improving China-US relations. At the end of summit, the position remains at the same level with Trump giving no firm answer to Xi’s demand for suspending weapons sale to Taiwan, but at the same time, the signal was there unofficially that the US government decision on arms sale taken earlier will not take immediate effect. Taiwan was relieved because they had apprehensions that Trump would be persuaded by resurgent Xi to take open position on suspending military sales to Taiwan. This itself is good enough for the island nation at the moment.

As regards trade deals, most of the work was done earlier. After the recent Supreme Court judgment on tariffs, the problems are also not very serious. The meeting between the US CEOs and President Xi and Chinese ministers led to some good results for the US companies. As a reciprocal measure, Trump assured of lifting sanctions against the Chinese companies purchasing Iranian oil. China also agreed to buy double digit billions worth of farm goods over the next three years. Further Trump was happy that China agreed to buy 200 Boeing jet planes, the figure finally going up to 750, according to the US sources. For Trump, this was a personal success because he was canvassing for Boeings to the Chinese market for a long time. Further Trump family’s company has big interests in the business of Boeings.

On AI and rare earth minerals, both sides kept mum. It seems that the discussions are still on and the Chinese side took a tougher position in view of its recent successes in setting up AI based industries with much less investment. In rare earth supply to USA, the Busan truce will continue till October this year. So there is still time for both the countries to arrive at an amicable settlement. In all Trump’s businessmen are happy. For the present, that is the only relief for President Donald Trump. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The developments in eastern and north eastern parts of India are getting increasing attention from Washington in the context of China’s planned moves to expand its control in Bangladesh and Myanmar, the two countries bordering the Indian states.US President Donald Trump’s unusual message sent to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 4 after the BJP victory in Bengal and Assam polls and the active participation of the U.S. ambassador in India Sergio Gor on May 12 at the oath taking ceremony of the Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, are ominous pointers to increasing U.S. interests in the North East.

Soon after the assembly elections results were out on May 4, President Trump congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi on what the White House described as a “historic, and decisive election victory” in West Bengal. The White House also mentioned just last month, on their phone call, President Trump expressed to PM Modi his admiration and how lucky India is to have him as the leader Such profuse praise for the Indian PM on the occasion of the BJP victory in local state polls, was never seen earlier. But this timing of Trump’s message relating to the BJP victory in Bengal and Assam polls, has its immediate geopolitical significance.

Why the U.S. President Donald Trump is so ecstatic on BJP’s victory in the assembly polls in Bengal and Assam? The immediate reason is that with the two states bordering Bangladesh, the US is now in an advantageous position to pursue its strategic programme to combat Chinese influence in the region which includes India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Earlier, the South Asia division of the U.S. government was not very proactive in monitoring the developments in this region as Trump was too busy with other more important developments. But after the coming into power of an elected government in February this year and the speedy expansion of China in Bangladesh, have induced the U.S. South Asia division officials to focus in a big way on Bangladesh and the NE region in the last three months. Both the U.S. envoys in New Delhi and Dhaka are doing their best to influence the policy making in both the governments.

Right now, for the U.S. think tank, the big worry is China’s big initiative in the Bay of Bengal zone. Myanmar has an elected government dominated by the army with China having good influence. In Bangladesh also, after Tarique Rahman took over as the Prime Minister, China has outsmarted the US despite all efforts by its new US ambassador in Dhaka.. Tarique is amiable to the USA and he is keeping the U.S. in good humour, but effectively, the policies and the projects, the Bangladesh government is pursuing are favouring China. And all these Bangladesh initiatives have been adversely affecting Indian interests, though officially, New Delhi is taking a low key posture.

Last week, Bangladesh foreign minister Khalur Rahman visited China and held detailed talks about extensive cooperation between both the governments. The most important was the talks on Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. This project in another form was supposed to be done in cooperation with India during Sheikh Hasina’s regime. Earlier, the interim President of Bangladesh Dr. Muhammad Yunus mooted this idea during his China visit in March 2025. This has been followed by Tarique government during the recent visit of the Bangladesh foreign minister in a more broader manner.

As per the understanding, under the project, Bangladesh will excavate about 102 km to raise the depth of the Teesta river and 203 km of dam will be built to protect the river. This is a massive project and Indian part of the Teesta river will be impacted if the project is implemented. So far only a week has passed after the Beijing meeting, but the Indian officials are getting ready to take up with the Bangladesh officials their points of reservation about the draft guidelines for the project.

Bangladesh shares an international border of 4,096 km with five Indian states, Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Mizoram also shares a border with Myanmar just as Bangladesh also has a border with Myanmar through Chittagong hill tracts. The new BJP government in Bengal has taken a decision to give land to the BSF within 45 days for speeding up the fencing work so as to prevent the entry of the infiltrators from Bangladesh. Bangladesh government has warned that its border force will be alert to prevent any push ins organized by the Indian side. That way, the tension along the border may intensify once the fencing work starts.

Bengal acts as a gateway to North East and there is a small area called Chicken’s Neck through Siliguri corridor which has got international focus involving mainly USA and China. Former interim President of Bangladesh even invited China to be a part of the Bangladesh project up to Bay of Bengal through Chicken’s Neck. The present Tarique government is not making such statements on the lines of Dr. Yunus, but if the tensions between India and Bangladesh increase after this BJP win in Bengal, that will only lead to more anti- India stance of the Tarique government and help China.

For Indian foreign ministry, the greater worry is the possibility of an axis between China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Right now, a military delegation from Pakistan is in Bangladesh for the training of the Bangladesh army. Bangladesh army seniors have also visited Pakistan recently. The collaboration is continuing, though the intensity is less compared to the last days of Dr. Yunus when he opened up every area of the Dhaka government to Pakistan.

Indian policy makers have to be careful not to get involved in this US-China battle for supremacy in Bangladesh and Myanmar. Narendra Modi government has to look after its own interests. US policy is to take India along as a partner in its strategic battle with China. U.S. ambassador Sergio Gor has made it plain to the Indian officials. Narendra Modi government should take the initiative to open dialogue with Bangladesh to ease tensions. The border fencing is fine but there should not be any big attempt for push ins from Indian side to Bangladesh. Allowing the situation on the borders at normal level, will serve Indian interests best. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The U.S. President Donald Trump begins his three-day visit to China on May 13 for his summit with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, the outcome of which has special significance for Trump in shaping his political future in the context of the midterm elections in November this year. Among both leaders, the U.S. President has more immediate compulsions in concluding a composite deal with the Chinese supremo, especially the trade deal.

On the eve of the May13-15 visit, Trump is not fully in a comfortable situation. As regards Iran, the ceasefire continues with some hiccups, but the Iranians are negotiating tough and to the political class in the U.S., the powerful U.S. President is looking more humiliated in diplomacy as against the Iranian government, though Trump is still maintaining that he is in a commanding position. And that the Iranians will agree to the peace deal on his terms.

It is quite likely that Trump will seek Chinese help in persuading Iran to come to an amicable settlement as early as possible. Trump knows both China and Russia have influence on Iran and both have been assisting Tehran from behind. China also can make use of this Iranian imbroglio to extract some new concessions from the U.S. President in the overall context of the bilateral deal. China has been in touch continuously with Iran. Only last week Iranian foreign minister had talks with both Chinese and Russian leaders.

Apart from Iran war issue, Trump is highly interested in facilitating the trade deal and security in South China sea, while China is interested in the future of Taiwan. Trump is more interested in the composite trade deal, the draft of which has been made ready by both sides headed by the trade ministers of both countries in three previous meetings. Already, as a follow-up of the last Trump-Xi summit in Busan, South Korea in October last year, a truce is there temporarily in the trade war.

Trump unleashed last year a huge tariff hike on Chinese goods entering U.S. market at 145 per cent at one point. China retaliated by restricting export of rare earth materials that are vital for US defence technology. After Busan meet, China resumed supply on ad hoc basis till the final agreement was concluded. So Trump will try to ensure some permanent agreement on this Chinese supply of rare earth materials at the Beijing summit.

China is seeking to extend the current trade truce, preserve access to US technology and halt or roll back the tightening of US export controls. In return it may offer substantial investments in the US economy, on the line of the deals the Trump administration has previously struck with nations such as Japan and South Korea. China is presently in an advantageous position as it has advanced rapidly in the AI technology as far the latest report of WIPO, China has recorded largest number of patents in high tech areas, though US is still ahead of China in AI and two/three key areas of frontier tech.

For the Chinese President, Taiwan is especially important for discussions during Beijing summit and Xi will make every effort to take some firm declaration from Trump about Chinese mainland sovereignty over Taiwan. Beijing claims the self-ruled island of 23 million people as part of its own territory and has vowed to take control of it, using force if necessary. China has been warning Taiwan of military intervention but in reality, President Xi is still not in a mood to take any adventurous action which may worsen bilateral relations with President Trump.

In fact, Trump appears to have taken a softer stance on Taiwan than previous presidents. He has described it as an economic competitor, particularly in the semiconductor industry, rather than a democratic ally. An $11bn US arms package for Taiwan has reportedly been stalled by the state department before the Xi-Trump summit. This is a signal to President Xi by Trump on the eve of the summit. At the same time, Trump has asked the Japanese Prime Minister not to make anti-China statements in public. Japan in the recent months have been lambasting Beijing for its statements on Taiwan.

Significantly, one day after the announcement by Trump of his rescheduled visit to China on May 14 and 15, Chinese official daily Global Times came out with an editorial saying” History has repeatedly shown that both China and the US stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. China has emphasized on many occasions that the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right. If that button is misaligned, all subsequent efforts will go astray.

China’s policy toward the US has remained consistent, stable, and predictable, emphasizing mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, and serving as a steady and reliable force for improving bilateral relations. Washington needs to make greater efforts to discard its biases toward China, better understand China’s realities, and recognize the long-term trajectory of China’s economic and social development.”

The focus is more on business and trade cooperation from Chinese perspective. GT says, the business communities and civil organizations of China and the US have maintained close communication, and the people from both countries share a strong desire for mutual understanding and friendly interaction. Hopefully, US policymakers will spend more time visiting and observing China firsthand. Only when “seeing what’s happening in China” becomes action rather than advice can US decision-makers shed arrogance, correct biases, and recalibrate their perceptions through direct engagement.

As things stand now, China watchers say that Trump will try to get maximum concessions on key minerals needed for semi conductor and other high tech industries in USA and in the process, he may give some political concessions to China on Taiwan. Both Japan and Taiwan are worried at this. The new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in her recent meeting with President Trump in the White House did not get the support on Taiwan issue which she expected, though officially Japanese officials said that Japan was on the same page as the US regarding Taiwan.

Diplomatic row between Japan and China escalated this week after a Japanese army officer was accused of breaking into the Chinese embassy in Tokyo, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing. China went on to describe the incident as a “forceful break-in” by an active-duty officer of the Japan Self-Defence Forces. Japan also official lodged protest at the Chinese stance.

48 hours before the starting of this Trump visit, Chinese leadership is looking at the summit in a relaxed mood. There is no tension for President Xi. He knows that circumstances are such that China cannot lose in the bargaining that will be taking place at the summit. Trump has many stakes, China has little. But in the greater interests of Chinese economy, President Xi will also favour a composite successful deal. If that improves Trump’s stature diplomatically as also politically, President Xi won’t mind. He will allow both of the two world leaders to be the winners. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The results of the five assembly elections available on Monday May 4 give unmistakeable signs of further consolidation of the BJP pan India and fresh setbacks for the opposition INDIA Bloc. Two stalwarts of the opposition Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and M. K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu have been defeated. While in Bengal the BJP victory is overwhelming, in Tamil Nadu, it is the new entrant Tamil film star Vijay of TVK who has emerged as the leading player in the DMK’s electoral map by displacing the ruling DMK to the second position, thereby indicating the arrival of the third Dravidian party in the bipolar Tamil Nadu politics.

A close analysis reveals that the BJP has consolidated its continuing gains in Assam, has made inroads in Kerala by getting three seats in the assembly for the first time, has unseated the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee in Bengal and is benefitting from the displacement of M K Stalin. BJP can very well play its political game in Tamil Nadu through its NDA led by AIADMK which has got third position after TVK and DMK. That way, BJP is getting a big opportunity to enter Tamil Nadu politics in a big way by fishing in troubled waters since it is up to TVK supremo Vijay whom he will choose for ministry formation.

As regards the Congress, the party led UDF has got back Kerala in 2026 assembly elections. It was expected as the earlier local polls in January this year already showed the dominating trend of the Congress. It is a normal party changing in Kerala. The CPI(M) led LDF has been defeated but its organisational base is intact and the party along with the CPI is in a position to fight and get back power in the next elections. But the worry for the Congress and the Left in Kerala should be that BJP is on an upswing in the state. After getting one seat in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has got three seats in the assembly, as the latest trends show. The BJP is expected to make a big push in Kerala as a part of its southern offensive to increase its strength considerably before 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress fought in Bengal in all 294 seats with the objective of strengthening its own independent base. Though the party has done very poorly, the voting percentage will show the extent of the party presence in all constituencies. That will help the Party to assess its political strategy in the coming days to fight the ruling BJP government in the state of West Bengal. In Assam, the Congress has got around 25/26 seats as against BJP’s 98 as the trend shows. This was expected as the Congress high command failed miserably in forming a proper united front in Assam till the last moment. The BJP had its communalisation strategy and that worked. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is dependent on DMK. The outcome was not expected. Some state Congress leaders even wanted to talk to Vijay before the polls. It will be seen whether the Congress sticks to DMK or resort to some rethinking about alliance.

For BJP, the most ambitious achievement has been the ousting of the TMC government after its 15 years of rule in Bengal. BJP high command did everything to realise its goal to win over Banga after Anga and Kalinga – that is Bihar Odisha. Both the Prime Minister and Home Minister spent many days in Bengal for meetings, roadshows and strategy sessions. In the election history of India, in no other state, such a large scale transfer of officials took place and many of these were done on the basis of the list supplied by the BJP leaders. Both TMC government as also the party were under seize by the entire central government machinery before and during the elections.

Apart from incumbency, this central agencies role also played a significant role in the defeat of the TMC in the elections. Once the full details of voting figures come, it will be easier to analyse, but it is apparent that the extensive deletion of the voters under SIR adversely affected the TMC. The TMC’s own election machinery which made use of bogus voters in the last two elections, could not get dividends as a result of extensive patrolling and checking of the booths by the central forces. Certainly, there was a major consolidation of Hindu voters but that does not justify the rout of TMC in its South Bengal strongholds. Voting figures may show that there was some significant diversion of Muslim voters to the BJP candidates.

For TMC leadership, especially Mamata Banerjee, the challenge is massive. TMC’s latest strength of below 100 as against nearly double its figure by BJP, along with the BJP state leadership determined to cripple the TMC machinery may create serious internal tussles in Bengal in the post election days. The central forces are stationed for the next 60 days but there impartiality is under doubt. TMC has to sort out series of its own problems in the backdrop of this defeat. How Mamata Banerjee deals with all these issues, that is to be watched.

As regards the state CPI(M), the Party has got one seat, as the trends show. The Party contested 195 seats on its own. So fat till 3 PM, the voting trends show that the CPI(M) got 4.23 per cent of the votes. It may go up finally but that also can never cross 6 per cent. That way, there has been little turnaround in the last five years in terms of percentage. But some young candidates have shown promise. The CPI(M) has to make a thorough review of the results , assess the real factors and prepare the organization for a harder battle against the BJP run new government. The battle lines have been changed. Taking into account the political environment, the Left has to collaborate with the TMC in the coming months to fight the BJP which will be more authoritarian in Bengal.

INDIA Bloc has to convene immediately its meeting of the partners to review the election results and formulate a viable strategy for fighting the BJP and the Narendra Modi government. All the INDIA Bloc parties have been humbled by the massive power of the BJP and the central agencies. So they have to sort out their ego problem and join hands for the battle against the NDA and the Modi government. There are twists and turns in the country’s politics. This post assembly election is also such a bad turn for INDIA Bloc just as the post Lok Sabha election period was a bad patch temporarily for the BJP. The leaders of INDIA Bloc have to think that time is running out. If they do not join hands and fight the saffron with all determination, India as a nation, will be in peril. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Just two weeks before the scheduled summit of U.S President Donald Trump with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, the report of the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) on the status of AI related applications, has unnerved the U.S. administration as the latest Chinese supremacy in robot related patent applications, will have impact on President Trump’s bargaining power in his talks with the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The WIPO report says that China holds over 60 per cent of global AI patent applications and about two-thirds of robot-related patent applications. Further, by the end of 2025, the number of high value invention patents in China reached 2.292 million of which 70 per cent are in strategic emerging industries. Further China’s GPU related patent applications increased over ten fold over five years.

The U.S. is still the leading country with high tech capability and its AI applications are leading to high growth in big industries, though it has also generated turmoil leading to rationalization of work force and even layoffs. The US was much ahead of China in the year 2021 in AI applications but in the last five years, China has bridged the gap very fast. The more important aspect is that China has developed the same AI application technology at a far more cheaper cost ensuring sustainability of the operations.

Trump advisers thought of using this AI tech supremacy in getting more concessions from China at the coming Beijing summit on May 14-15. China is allowing supply of its critical minerals to US following the last meeting, but it has to be renewed and that depends on a package deal linked to US high tech technology to China in some key areas. This was expected to be a part of the full scale trade deal which both the leaders are scheduled to conclude at the Beijing summit.

China has nearly closed its gap to the U.S. in AI bot performance, while continuing to best global competition in number of patents, publications, and rollout of robots, according to the Stanford University Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) 2026 AI Index report released recently.

The report found a shrinking gap in Arena scores—a metric indicating relative performances of large language models—between the top AI bots in the U.S. and China. In May 2023, the U.S.’s top model, OpenAI’s GPT-4, led with more than 1,300 Arena points compared with China’s fewer than 1,000. By March 2026, that gulf shrank to just 39 Arena points, with the top U.S. model, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6, leading China’s Dola-Seed 2.0 by just 2.7%.

While the U.S. still beats China in the number of top AI models—50 compared with 30—China has more publication citations than the U.S., accounting for 20.6% of AI citations in 2024 compared with the U.S.’s 12.6%. China also has nearly nine times the volume of industrial robot installations, leading the world with more than 295,000, compared with the U.S.’s 34,200.

Trump very recently had a long meeting with the leading high tech honchos of USA and discussed the nature of competition with China. It was revealed that the US honchos were apprehensive of the Chinese companies capability in inventing the same technology at far cheaper costs and beating the US in the global market. It was also pointed out that huge investments in AI related projects have been made by the big U.S. companies, but if the returns are not commensurate, some of the companies may go bust. Some of the U.S. experts even talk of the dotcom bust in 1999 and 2000 which led to the closure of many start ups.

According to the Stanford report, “For years, the U.S. outpaced all other global regions on AI—in model size, performance, artificial intelligence research, citations, and more,” said Stanford’s summary of the report. “But China emerged as an AI counterweight to the U.S., gradually gaining ground, and this year it appears to have nearly erased any U.S. lead.”

Despite fewer investment dollars and wider regulatory constraints, China has changed the narrative of its ability to compete against the U.S. in a broader tech war. Spurred by its 2025 “DeepSeek moment,” China has poured funding into AI startups, with IPOs in Hong Kong last quarter reaching a five-year high of $110 billion across 40 new listings.

China has also quietly invested in its electricity infrastructure, adding more electricity demand than the entire consumption of Germany every year, David Fishman, a China energy analyst with the Lantau Group, previously said in an interview with Fortune. The country’s reserve margin has never dipped below 80%, Fishman said, essentially giving it twice the necessary capacity to grow AI compute.

American private investment in AI still far exceeds China’s, reaching $285.9 billion in 2025, more than 23 times China’s $12.4 billion. The U.S. funded 1,953 new AI companies last year, more than 10 times any other country, the Stanford report noted. But the most important finding of the Stanford report is that the US is losing AI talent and that happened more faster in Trump’s present tenure due to the turmoil over immigration.

AI’s momentum swing in China’s favour may be contributing to a slowdown in tech talent entering the U.S. The Stanford report found the number of AI scholars moving to the U.S. dropped 89% since 2017, and that decline is happening precipitously, accelerating 80% in the past year alone. At this juncture, more researchers are still entering the U.S. than leaving it.

Stanford report findings are being seriously assessed at the level of Trump advisers and emergency steps are being planned to retain AI talent and to encourage more such talent to enter the US. While the Iran war is going on, the second most important priority for the White House is preparations for the Beijing visit by Trump and how to improve the U.S. President’s bargaining position in his talks with the Chinese supremo Xi Jinping. In the next two weeks, this exercise will be intensified. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

West Bengal is set for the second and final phase of polling on April 29 in 142 seats out of the total of 294 in the state assembly. After the holding of the first phase of polls on April 23 in 152 seats, PM Narendra Modi, who was campaigning in another part of the state on the same day, declared that the BJP had swept the first phase getting more than 100 seats in the first phase. Home Minister Amit Shah, who was also on campaign trail, made it more categorical by saying that he had made all the calculations and he found that the BJP would be getting 110 seats in the first phase. Both declared that BJP would be forming the state government ousting the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee next month after the results were known on May 4.

There is nothing wrong for a senior party leader in declaring that their party will be winning the elections and forming the new government. In Bengal, Trinamool Congress led by the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is in power since 2011, the year the Left Front government was ousted by her. After that, Mamata has enjoyed three terms. Now she is in the election battle for the fourth term. There is certainly anti-incumbency. This is the most opportune time for the BJP to oust the TMC from power through mobilisation of all its resources, political, financial as also central agencies.

The Bengal election in 2026 is witnessing unprecedented developments which so far have not taken place in any electoral battle in any state. In the present cycle of elections held also in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, it was only in Bengal that the Home Minister Amit Shah continuously stayed for fifteen days giving directions from his hotel to the BJP leaders. This had immediate impact on the law-and-order administration, especially the IPS officers who are mostly nominated as police observers with complete control on law and order in election time.

Already, through the SIR, large-scale deletions have taken place in select constituencies with concentration of minority population. This SIR was the brain-child of Shah and he wanted its implementation in Bengal as an experiment for future state assembly elections, as also Lok Sabha elections. The Election Commission also acted in a partial manner by sending a large list of so-called disturbers in the election period. There is nothing new in this, but this time, the list mostly contained TMC members’ names. Reports say that the list was prepared on the basis of information supplied by the state BJP leaders.

This instruction of the ECI could not be implemented because of intervention of Calcutta High Court, but now reports say that through police observers, another round up of activists affiliated with TMC might be on the way. Home Minister has left for Delhi after the campaigning ended for the second phase on Monday, but his shadow still prevails over the police administration of the state.

Mamata is fighting an unequal battle in 2026 elections, but at the end of the day, people are voting. Both PM and Shah made some calculations and on the basis of that, they are still predicting the BJP victory, but those calculations may not finally bear fruit as the TMC under Mamata has taken enough precautions to take care of those eventualities. BJP’s target was to immobilize the TMC’s consultancy firm I-PAC before the elections. That has been done. I-PAC has stopped functioning for 20 days and will not be available to the TMC till April 29. That has hit TMC preparations to some extent, as already an alternative plan was formed and that is functioning.

BJP’s plan to make use of Humayun Kabir to split Muslim votes in Murshidabad district has not fructified. Kabir is already disgraced and his party candidates hardly mattered in the first phase of elections on April 23.Mamata’s main base is Muslims, women and the unorganized workers, including women. As regards Muslims, there was some churning in few districts, but that has subsided. All studies indicate that in Bengal, out of 294 seats, in 146 seats, Muslims have a presence of more than 25 per cent. In 75 seats, out of that, the presence is more than 40 per cent. In 2021 assembly polls, TMC got 131 of the 146 seats while the BJP got 14 and the ISF, an ally of Left Front, one. This may go down slightly due to the SIR deletions but the huge turnout also may lead to big rise in Muslim votes.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a big issue of the defeat of Women’s Bill linked to Delimitation in Lok Sabha special session and hoped that it would help BJP in Bengal to woo women voters. But it was a political disaster. BJP leaders got the feedback from the ground and in fact told their cadres not to use Women’s Bill as a campaign plank. Even Prime Minister and Amit Shah also focused on lawlessness towards women in Bengal, but skipped reference to Women’s Bill. The only issue which adversely affected the TMC base is joblessness of youth. There is big dissatisfaction on that. But BJP’s coming to power is also not seen as a way out to solve joblessness.

In this election, the Left Front has been showing some aggression in their campaign. Many young leaders have come up and they are carrying out intensive campaigns drawing attention of young and old voters alike. But the hard reality is that still the voting base of the Left is varying between 6 to maximum 9 per cent. Even if the votes which went to BJP in 2021 polls came back to Left fold, that will not be sufficient for a victory. The Left cannot expect a turnaround, even though a few seats may be won. The Left has to be ready for a long haul on the basis of the limited achievements in the 2026 assembly elections. They should work hard for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls followed by 2031 assembly elections.

All indications suggest TMC will have a comfortable majority crossing the figure of 200 out of 294 seats. In 2021 elections, TMC got 215 seats and the BJP 77, though BJP’s actual strength in the assembly has come down to 65 due to defections. In the last five years since 2021, TMC won all by polls by increasing margins. This trend can only be totally reversed if there is a massive wave against Mamata and her government. TMC as a party has been the focus of attacks on the issue of corruption, but that is still not impacting Mamata’s personal brand and her immense rapport with the people, especially the rural women. That is the saving grace for the TMC as a party. And that will be the factor that is going to work in the second phase of polling on April 29 also. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

After getting political and diplomatic advantage from the latest US-Iran ceasefire, China has started its preparation for hosting the U.S. President Donald Trump in its crucial summit in Beijing on May 14 and 15 this year. Earlier the summit was scheduled for March 31 and April 1 but Trump postponed that after the beginning of Iran-US war and rescheduled in May. Now, since the war is over for the time being, both China and the US are making their own preparations for the coming summit.

Taiwan’s future is a major issue straining the relations between China and the USA for decades. In the last meeting at Busan, both leaders tried to narrow down the differences but President Xi Jinping stood by the Chinese claim that Taiwan is a part of China and Beijing would like the issue to be settled once for all. In the last five months since Busan talks, Trump made some efforts to persuade Japan and the present Taiwan government to dilute their anti-China rants in public, Japan Prime Minister Takaichi was even scolded by the US President for resorting to public outbursts against Beijing on Taiwan.

In such a developing scenario, President Xi Jinping had a rare meeting with the Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, chairperson of the Kuomintang Party (KMT) in Beijing on Friday, April 10. This was first such contact in a decade and this took place a month before the scheduled summit with the U.S. President where Taiwan issue is expected to figure in a prominent manner. Xi said in this meeting that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese and want peace.

Cheng reciprocated by saying that Taiwan should “no longer be a flashpoint for potential conflict” and should instead become “a symbol of peace jointly safeguarded by Chinese people on both sides of the strait.”This view of the Taiwan opposition leader is at complete variance with the position of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan which has stuck to its position as a separate nation and has sought US military assistance to meet China’s threat to its national security.

The comments of the KMT chairperson led to immediate outbursts from the ruling DPP calling Cheng an agent of Beijing, but the very presence of the main opposition party leader in Beijing and calling for peace and Taiwan not to be used as a pawn, has been a booster for President Xi before his talks with President Trump. Cheng has been advocating for a friendly approach to Beijing contradicting the stand of the present President Lao Ching-te who was elected in 2024 national elections.

Significantly, there is a debate in the Taiwan Parliament now over the ruling party’s proposal for US $ 40 billion defence budget much of which is proposed to be spent by buying US arms. Cheng has opposed this proposal. The debate is still on. China has told Trump that any further sales of arms by the US, will be considered a threat to China’s national security. Cheng’s position on this issue as the opposition leader, has strengthened China’s position on the arms sale issue. It is to be seen how Trump deals with this arms sale to Taiwan issue.

It is significant that even in the course of the U.S.-Iran war, China and the US continued their back channel talks on some crucial trade issues including the supply of rare earth minerals by China to the US with the objective to ensure that an agreement is arrived at before the summit so that the two leaders do not have to spend time on this complex issue.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Reuters early this week that the world’s two largest economies have settled into a stable situation in which the United States is able to access Chinese rare earths and maintain substantial tariffs on Chinese goods.

Greer, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed issues involving rare earths in Paris in March, including minerals that go through third countries before they make it to the United States. All three are making efforts to arrive at a draft agreement on the supply of rare earth minerals much before May 14.

“It would be nice not to have it come up at the leaders’ meeting,” Greer said of the rare earths issue. “It’d be nice if we could resolve it at the ministers’ level and the staff level, and hopefully we’re in a position to do that. But, of course, the president, as he has in the past, he will continue to advocate for U.S. access to rare earths.”

Greer said that the United States is working on plurilateral agreements to boost alternative supplies of critical minerals, but these need price floor mechanisms to protect ⁠production from potential future predatory price cuts by China.

The United States and China, Greer said, are working on forming a Board of Trade mechanism for Trump and Xi to consider, which would determine what the two countries could sustainably trade with each other without crossing national security ⁠red lines.

Greer also said that there have been discussions about forming a possible Board of Investment between the two countries, but it would discuss discrete issues related to investment, such as roadblocks to specific company investments in the United States or China, but not broad policy.

Trump has said that he would be open to the idea of ⁠Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD starting a plant in the United States, but U.S. lawmakers have voiced increasing concern that allowing such investments from state-supported Chinese automakers would create an existential threat to the market-driven economics of the American auto industry.

That way, senior officials of both USA and China are having discussions on arriving at understanding on key economic issues at the ministers level so that the two Presidents focus mostly on political issues that include the future of Taiwan and the security of South China Sea apart from a review of West Asian and the global situation. Xi will be talking with big advantage while Trump will try to extract concessions to the extent possible to claim that both are winners. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

All nations in the globe except perhaps Israel have welcomed the ceasefire agreement for two weeks between U.S. and Iran announced by President Donald Trump on April 7 evening US time and later endorsed by the Iranian government. The ceasefire is fragile – Israel has bombed Lebanon killing 254 persons on Wednesday itself while Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Both sides are blaming each other for violation of agreement.

These violations are certainly worrying but the most important thing is that a bigger war with massive devastation possibility has been averted and both U.S. and Iran are ready to join the peace talks organized by Pakistan in Islamabad this week end. For Trump, it is extremely difficult now to start the war against Iran again, while despite all talk of victory, Iran also knows that this is the best opportunity to restore peace in the war torn nation by concluding a reasonable agreement which takes care of Iran’s economic costs in the war. For Iran, this is the best time to come to an understanding with Trump for ensuring some truce.

Yes, Trump has been bruised beyond his expectations. In U.S., the Republicans are angry and the Democrats want to impeach him. But for the peace loving people, the immediate agenda is to ensure that the Islamabad talks succeed and the war between US and Iran is avoided on a lasting basis. If US and Iran agree even to continue the ceasefire for more time till a final agreement is reached, that should be welcomed. World needs to avoid another devastating war and that should be the priority at this moment.

It is in this background, in the next few days and even during the negotiation process, the UN as also China, Russia and other countries including European Union and India have a big responsibility. China has worked silently through Pakistan and Iran in pushing the peace formula. In fact, the Iran envoy told the Chinese media in Beijing on Wednesday soon after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement that Iran wants China and Russia to be a part of the team to monitor Hormuz Strait. He also mentioned Pakistan among the friendly countries who can be entrusted with help in monitoring. These are the countries which have to play a big role in ensuring that the Islamabad talks succeed.

The ten point Iran peace plan on the basis of which US representatives will start talks at Islamabad have many controversial issues and the same issue can be explained from different angles. So the issue of nuclear rights of Iran or reconstruction costs can not be sorted out in one meeting, it may take days. But at least the talks should not break down and the officials can continue talks while extending the ceasefire period. Iran’s friends like Russia and China have to ensure that.

The global media has started discussing about the winners and losers in the US- Iran war. Trump’s personal image and his imperial vision have got a big jolt but that should not be battered too much at this stage. If he is ready to exit Iran permanently by claiming that he is the winner as the US has achieved all its objectives, let him claim that if he signs the peace agreement on a lasting basis. Trump will be taken care of politically by the U.S. Congress and the U.S. voters in the November midterm elections. It is in the interests of global peace that he focuses more in the coming months on midterm polls, his domestic audience than the US role in West Asia and Iran.

As regards Iran, the leadership has showed maturity as against the uncivilized behaviours and rants of the U.S. President who is supposed to be the leader of the civilized free world. Iran has been battered economically and militarily. But the country emerged united and all hopes of organizing uprising by Trump and CIA were dashed. Iranian people have their grievances about the authoritarianism of the Iran regime, but they are ready to sort that out themselves internally with their power and not through any outside intervention.

This firmness of Iranian people has taught lessons to Trump. He will not talk of bringing out regime change in Latin America as he has been used to mentioning in every speech. Trump has lost his diplomatic advantage among the Gulf countries. The Gulf countries who supported Trump and allowed US bases, have been targeted by Iran. If Iran comes out stronger after the peace talks, there are problems for them. They are not sure whether they will get Trump by their side then.

Both Russia and China have gained from the US-Iran war. Both countries are supplier of arms and now Iran will be needing more arms for replenishment. China and Russia will be big sellers of sophisticated weapons to Iran in the coming months. Iran has given the withdrawal of sanctions by US as a major point in the peace plan to which Trump has provisionally agreed. If US team does not change its views at the talks, Iran will start getting big arms from China and Russia at concessional prices.

Israel is the only country which is feeling really let down by Trump. Till now, there is no invitation to Israel to join Islamabad talks. Israel has refused to observe ceasefire in Lebanon. The US may pressurize it to stop bombing Lebanon if Iran puts pressure. Israel will try to use the hawks in the White House to create problems in the peace talks. But if vice president J D Vance represents US, that Israeli pressure may not work. Vance has always been US war against Iran. Iran leaders have also more confidence in him as a negotiator.

As regards India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personalized diplomacy has come a cropper. Pakistan is being hailed as a great saver of a global disaster. Many heads of states have mentioned of the big role of Pakistan PM. Pakistan has outsmarted India in a big way in global diplomacy. Poor external affairs minister S Jaishankar may say ” we are not brokers”, but that is not going to save India from this disaster. Pakistan will be getting big advantage from the Gulf countries as also from the West if a truce is signed in Islamabad.

Otherwise also, Pakistan is at the centrestage of global diplomacy. Indian external ministry statement of not mentioning Pakistan as the mediator, was of low taste. India could have been more gracious. However it will be in the best interests of Indian diplomacy if PM Modi takes some lessons from his Iran war gaffe and allows the Indian foreign ministry to move independently without being continuously monitored by PMO. The PM of a country like Pakistan with battered polity and economy has emerged globally with higher stature compared to our Vishwaguru PM who is a close buddy of Donald Trump. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

U.S. President Donald Trump finally rescheduled his much awaited visit to China on May 14 and 15 by announcing in his Truth Social there by creating big interest in the diplomatic circles about the possibility of a sort of ceasefire in the current West Asian war before the scheduled trip to Beijing. Earlier Trump was scheduled to visit China on March31- April 2 but he postponed that by talking to the Chinese President Xi Jinping about his preoccupation in the Iran war.

This rescheduling of the crucial visit of the US President in the midst of the continuing war in West Asia as also the peace moves by Trump, underlines how much importance Trump gives to the US relations with China. Trump is anxious to meet Xi Jinping as early as possible. He does not want to create any uncertainty even during the present war situation about the coming visit. So he announced the rescheduling on Wednesday saying “I look forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event”.

Interestingly, for the last few days, the Chinese foreign ministry sources and the official media have been talking of the need for close collaboration between USA and China in every sphere, especially economic while maintaining the position that US has violated the UN regulations and the international rules by attacking Iran . China has been in touch with the Iranian officials, especially the Iranian foreign minister and has been advocating for a dialogue to end the war. In the last two days, the interaction has been more in the context of the 15 point peace plan proposed by Trump and Tehran’s counter proposal. China has also refused Trump’s request to help in the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz.

Significantly, one day after the announcement by Trump of his rescheduled visit to China on May 14 and 15, Chinese official daily Global Times has come out with an editorial on Thursday, March 26 saying” History has repeatedly shown that both China and the US stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. China has emphasized on many occasions that the issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-US relationship, just like the first button of a shirt that must be put right. If that button is misaligned, all subsequent efforts will go astray. China’s policy toward the US has remained consistent, stable, and predictable, emphasizing mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, and serving as a steady and reliable force for improving bilateral relations. Washington needs to make greater efforts to discard its biases toward China, better understand China’s realities, and recognize the long-term trajectory of China’s economic and social development.”

The focus is more on business and trade cooperation from Chinese perspective. GTsays, the business communities and civil organizations of China and the US have maintained close communication, and the people from both countries share a strong desire for mutual understanding and friendly interaction. Hopefully, US policymakers will spend more time visiting and observing China firsthand. Only when “seeing what’s happening in China” becomes action rather than advice can US decision-makers shed arrogance, correct biases, and recalibrate their perceptions through direct engagement.

As things stand now, China watchers say that Trump will try to get maximum concessions on key minerals needed for semi conductor and other high tech industries in USA and in the process, he may give some political concessions to China on Taiwan. Both Japan and Taiwan are worried at this. The new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in her recent meeting with President Trump in the White House did not get the support on Taiwan issue which she expected, though officially Japanese officials said that Japan was on the same page as the US regarding Taiwan. s

Diplomatic row between Japan and China escalated this week after a Japanese army officer was accused of breaking into the Chinese embassy in Tokyo, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing. China went on to describe the incident as a “forceful break-in” by an active-duty officer of the Japan Self-Defence Forces. Japan also official lodged protest at the Chinese stance.

The incident took place at a time when ties between China and Japan have deteriorated in recent months. The main catalyst for the downfall was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about the self-ruled island of Taiwan last November. The arch-conservative leader, only elected in October last year, suggested that Japan may use military intervention if China were to attack Taiwan. Trump took exception to this stand of Takaichi and asked her for restraint vis a vis China on the issue of mentioning Taiwan. That way, both Taiwan and Japan are waiting with anxiety at the outcome of Trump-Xi talks in mid May this year. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

It is a history of twists and turns in India-China economic relations for decades. The same is being repeated now as India after taking special measures to make Chinese direct investment easier and agreeing to start border trade from three points in this country from June this year, is faced with the prospect of fighting China at the World Trade Organisation (WTO)’s 14th ministerial meeting at Cameroon on March 26 to March 29 this year on China backed proposal for setting up Investment Facilitation Development (IFD) framework.

The proposal has been supported by 120 countries out of 168 countries attending. So that way, China is advantageously placed to get the proposal through. But India has the support of about 40 countries including South Africa, Sri Lanka and even Nepal. Though, Nepal has yet to get its new government after March 5 elections, the decision by the interim Prime Minister must have been prompted by the incoming PM Balendra Shah. That way, this is a positive sign for the betterment of India-Nepal relations.

Trade experts say that New Delhi has reasons to be concerned at the Chinese move to get it passed because this will expand Chinese influence on the poorer countries by making use of China’s financial muscle while this will go against the emerging economies like India, Brazil, Turkiye, Sri Lanka. Interestingly, the U.S. which has a continuing trade war with China has extended its support to the Chinese proposal.

Indian officials are highly experienced in WTO affairs. They have taken recourse to some of the gaps in the Chinese proposal and have argued that discussions on this proposed IFD framework should remain outside WTO. So this Chinese proposal should not be any part of the WTO’s new agreements. Some countries are trying to see that the IFD proposal is postponed to the next meeting. In fact in 2024 WTO meeting, India and South Africa jointly blocked China’s bid to get the IFD proposal approved.

Apart from this contentious issue, the WTO meeting will be discussing the challenges and opportunities facing the multilateral trading system and to take action on the future work programme of WTO. A delegation of World Farmers Organisation (WFO) will be participating in the meeting. India is expected to discuss its Food Security Programme and underline the need for a permanent solution to this food security issue.

Leaving aside this WTO issue, India and China are presently in a comfortable position as far as the economic relations are concerned. India has just announced the starting of direct flights between Delhi and Beijing. That will help in boosting business further as for long six years since 2020, the flights were suspended after the Galwan Valley clash between Indian and Chinese troops resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and many Chinese also.

The Chinese side is also very welcoming at the recent Indian government decisions. Chinese official media said on Saturday that the increase in flight routes means more convenient personnel exchanges, lower business costs, and broader channels for cultural exchanges. More importantly, the signal released by the resumptions will guide businesses of both countries to re-evaluate each other’s markets, activate business plans, and promote bilateral cooperation projects.

Recent positive interactions between China and India have driven the steady improvement of bilateral relations, elevating them from “a reset and fresh start” to a new level of improvement. Interactions at all levels have grown more frequent, economic and trade cooperation has reached new heights, and, people-to-people exchanges have become increasingly active, Chinese official daily Global Times said.

These mutual efforts have laid a solid foundation for stabilizing and revitalizing the bilateral relationship. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted at a press conference on March 8 that mutual trust and cooperation are beneficial to the development of China and India, while division and confrontation are detrimental to the rejuvenation of Asia, according to a report by the Xinhua News Agency.

Economic and trade cooperation has always served as the anchor of China-India relations. Although bilateral trade has experienced twists and turns in the past few years, the complementarity of the two countries’ economic structures has not weakened. In 2025, bilateral trade reached a record high of $155.6 billion, marking a year-on-year rise of over 12 percent. But here there is a catch. China has a huge trade surplus and that is going up. Indian officials however say that the Chinese exports are all need based for India and contributing to the overall growth of the country’s economy. But many experts feel that this trade imbalance has to be removed and India should not be dependent on China in some key areas.

China, however, is looking at further investment relaxation by India to facilitate Chinese FDI inflow. The Chinese official position is that the resumption of direct flights is only a starting point. For China-India economic and trade to truly embark on a path of sustained upward development, more good news is needed, such as more flight routes, more visa facilitation measures, more relaxation on investment rules, and the deepening of industrial and supply chain collaboration. Each effort will benefit bilateral relations and accumulate assets for mutual trust. The continuous accumulation of these developments will form a positive cycle, consolidating the current upward momentum into a more stable and resilient norm. It is to be seen how the India-China economic relations take its course in the coming days. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The U.S.-Israel combo’s war against Iran entered its 20th day on March 19 with global diplomats monitoring closely the Chinese reaction to the continued decimation of Iran’s leadership and key installations by Trump and Netanyahu and also Tehran’s fierce retaliatory attacks against Israel as also the US allies in West Asia including UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia whose air bases are being used by the U.S. in the ongoing war.

A detailed analysis of the comments by the Chinese foreign ministry and the editorials in the official Chinese media reveal that China has taken a two pronged approach to the U.S. war in Iran making it sure that Iran gets limited assistance but that in any way does not harm its relationship with the USA, especially, its President Donald Trump. This writer who has been following the China policies closely for decades, can say with some confidence that President Xi Jinping is more comfortable with President Trump than with the Democrats. President Xi is not very well disposed to the possibility of Trump being weakened after the November midterm elections. Trump is a transactionist always looking for a perfect deal. Chinese supremo has confidence in tackling the U.S. deal maker to extract benefits for China. President Xi Jinping does not favour any big deal in the holding of the proposed summit.

Let us analyse the developments regarding the China-US relations in the last four days. Western media reports said that differences have cropped up between China and US over the proposed visit of President Trump to China from March 31 to April 2 and there was uncertainty about the visit itself. Immediately, there was reaction from the Chinese foreign ministry. On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokes person clarified that “ Head of State diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance to bilateral relations, China and the U.S. will continue to maintain communication on President Trump’s visit to China.”

Earlier on Wednesday, NBC News reported that Trump told reporters on Tuesday “we’re resetting the meeting, and it looks like it’ll take place in about five weeks.” Later he said five or six weeks

On Monday, the US president told media that he had requested a delay of about a month [for the visit] because of the demands of the war in the Middle East. Previously, in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said he could delay the US-China leaders’ summit in Beijing as he presses China to help unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told media on Monday that any changes to the schedule would be because of logistics, not because Washington was trying to pressure Beijing.

In response, spokesperson Lin said on Tuesday that China has noted that the US side has already publicly clarified the inaccurate media reports by stating that the reports are completely false and emphasizing that the visit is unrelated to the issue of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Interestingly, the Chinese was very anxious to clarify that there was no pressure from Trump on China and the summit would be held without much delay confirming the comment of Trump that the summit should take place within five /six weeks. In fact, back channel negotiations indicate that both sides want the summit to be held by April end even if the West Asian war continues. This summit is very crucial for both Trump and XI. Both the leaders of the world’s first two super powers need a full meeting to discuss the pending issues including the trade deal and both do not want the conflicting positions in Iran war to cast any shadow on the coming summit.

During a press conference on the sidelines of China’s annual two sessions last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table. What the two sides need to do now is to create a suitable environment, manage the differences that do exist, and remove unnecessary disruptions.. Simultaneously, the Chinese Foreign Minister said “The year 2026 can be a landmark year of sound, steady and sustainable development of China-US relations”.

These comments by the top Chinese officials for a steady development of China-US relations in 2026 are being made at the peak of the current war when China has taken a position against the US attack on Iran and the killing of the senior Khamenei. China has talked of violation of international rules against the USA but Chinese officials have strongly refuted any reports in the western media that China is supplying new equipment to its ally Iran though China has a stake in Iran as China is a major importer of oil products from Iran.

Let us analyse the official Chinese elaboration of its stand on Iran war. According to The Global Times editorial of March 18. “The military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its third week, with the situation remaining complex and tense. Without authorization from the UN Security Council, the US and Israel launched attacks and killed Iran’s supreme leader, deliberately provoking a war against Iran. China is not a party to this conflict. However, some Western narratives have seized the opportunity to fabricate claims aimed at discrediting China. These narratives broadly fall into three categories: the so-called “China failure” narrative, the “China responsibility” narrative, and the “China winner” narrative. Such absurd claims are driven by ulterior motives and thinly veiled political self-interest.””

According to the GT editorial, “The so-called “China failure” narrative hypes that China’s strategy of turning Iran into a key regional pillar is on the verge of collapse. The facts are clear: China has never been involved in this conflict, nor has it bet on any side. The conflict is the result of unilateral military actions by the US and Israel and has nothing to do with China’s diplomatic or economic strategies. China has actively expanded exchanges and cooperation with various countries including the Middle Eastern states based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It does not engage in military alliances, bloc confrontation, or proxy wars. Its influence in the Middle East is built on deep and extensive cooperation, which gives it resilience even amid conflict. Where, then, is the so-called “strategic failure”?

The GT editorial then explains, “The so-called “China responsibility” narrative is advanced by some Western media outlets on the grounds that “China maintains close ties with Iran,” arguing that China should bear responsibility for the conflict, or urging it to take sides, impose sanctions, or restrain Iran. It must be emphasized that both China and Iran are sovereign states, and their exchanges and cooperation comply with international law and are not directed at any third party. Should not those who initiated the war bear responsibility for the conflict itself and for the harm inflicted on the people of countries affected by it?”

Then the Chinese official media defends China’s position on its action to help Iran. The GT says “In fact, China has never stood idly by in the face of this war. From March 1 to 12, the Chinese side held phone calls with the foreign ministers of 12 countries and dispatched its special envoy to the region to conduct shuttle diplomacy. At the UN Security Council, China explicitly called for respect for the sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Iran and other countries in the region. Such concrete actions – speaking up for justice, working for peace, and upholding fairness – have won recognition from regional countries.

According to GT, during phone calls with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Qatari prime minister and Omani foreign minister both expressed their expectation that China would play a greater role in promoting a ceasefire and ending the hostilities. After the Red Cross Society of China announced $200,000 in emergency humanitarian assistance for Iranian victims of an elementary school attack, China further announced on March 17 that it would offer emergency humanitarian assistance to Iran, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. China’s actions and sense of responsibility are a vivid embodiment of its commitment to the vision of a community with a shared future for humanity, as well as to internationalism and humanitarianism.

China also refutes the media comments that China is profiting from the Iran war and it is a winner. Chinese media points out “Aside from the Western military-industrial complex profiting from arms sales, there are no winners in this war. Such narratives are nothing more than attempts to drive a wedge between relevant countries and China, shifting attention and deflecting responsibility for the energy crisis triggered by US and Israeli actions by artificially praising China.”.

As the Global Times sees it, “The Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East; it is not an arena for major power rivalry. China’s position on this conflict has always been clear: Issues in the Middle East should be resolved independently by regional countries; external interference will only exacerbate instability, and the red line of protecting civilians in armed conflict must not be crossed. “.

To conclude, China will not like to give any impression that it is trying to make gains at the cost of USA, through Iran war. China is very interested in making a big success of the China-US summit like Donald Trump and he will make all efforts to ensure that whatever China does to help Iran through diplomacy or humanitarian assistance, should not have any adverse impact on the China-US relations which are improving. President Xi has to make 2026 te most successful year in terms of global diplomacy including clinching a deal with Donald Trump. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

As the U.S. Israel war against Iran entered its fourteenth day on Friday March 13, in the diplomatic corridors in the UN headquarters in New York and in other major capitals including the EU headquarters in Brussels, speculation has started on what can be the likely stand of Iran’s two allies China and Russia if the West Asian war escalates further. The question has become relevant in the context of leaks from the White House that a frustrated Trump is mulling of using ground troops to take control of the nuclear installations as also key oil infrastructure.

By now, it is evident that China and Russia are in constant touch ever since February 28 when Israel all of a sudden attacked Iran, later joined by the U.S. In the last two weeks of war, the war has turned into a war between Iran and the USA. Israel is acting as a subsidiary to U.S. war machine. In more clear terms, in the present phase it is a war between Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei who was made the supremo after the death of his father defying the U.S. President’s hopes that the Killing of senior Khamenei would divide the Iranian leadership.

On March 11, at the United Nations Security Council meeting, a resolution was passed condemning the Iranian attacks against the neighbouring countries. Out of 15 members of the SC, 13 voted in favour, and two Russia and China abstained. The two countries did not veto the resolution meaning they allowed the resolution get passed. If they had vetoed, the resolution would not have been passed. China however mentioned that the resolution should have mentioned of the initial attacks by Israel on Iran. But leaving apart semantics, it is clear that both China and Russia are not ready to have any direct confrontation with Trump. Otherwise, both of them would have vetoed the resolution pointing out the inconsistency. India was of the group of 135 countries who supported the resolution. India’s position was expected as in most cases, India is now supporting U.S. and Israel.

Early this week, at a meeting of the European leaders , the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said that Europe needs a more realistic interest driven foreign policy. It was a clear hint that EU has no other option left at present rather than aligning with the policies of Trump. Though a few leaders did not like this sort of submission by EU, the general mood in Europe is that all talk of independence from the US hegemony is bullshit, effectively, Europe has to remain an ally of Trump as long as he remains in power. One EU expert commented that “Europe’s collective action has been a fiasco at best and lunacy at worst”.

Why are China and Russia avoiding direct intervention to defend their ally? For China, the stakes in foreign policy in 2026 are very high. President Xi Jinping is due to meet President Trump in April this year. Though there is uncertainty about the dates due to the current Iran war, no postponement has been announced. Both Xi and Trump are interested in making a success of this coming summit in Beijing. It is just not the conclusion of the trade deal, XI is expecting a clear indication from Trump about the status of Taiwan which is favourable to China. Also Xi is expecting Trump to control Japan under the new Prime Minister Takaichi who is occasionally talking against China and extending support to Taiwan.

Xi is rejuvenated now after getting the mandate from the eight day National People’s Congress which concluded in Beijing on March 12. The NPC has approved the government work report and the outline of the 15th five year plan 2026-2030 for national economic and social development. The stress is not on just growth but more on social harmony and the expansion of the high tech including AI to a new level to achieve the goal of emerging as the largest economy in the world beating the United States.

Xi needs Trump to achieve this goal. Trump understands business and transactions. Xi also is a technocrat. Chinese media analysts say often that both have a good wavelength of communications and that is good for the healthy development of US-China relations. President Xi does not want this process to be seriously disturbed by his actions in Iran war. But at the same time, Xi certainly does not want Iran to be totally defeated and Trump emerging triumphant. So the Chinese supremo is also following a national interest driven foreign policy without caring much for ideology.

Both Russia and China agree on this nuanced interest driven approach.. Both the countries are helping Iran through various devices in different advisory capacities, but they are not openly supplying sophisticated weapons right now. China is very sensitive about the nuclear installation of Iran. Earlier also, China advised Iran to be careful about the issue. There is every possibility of Xi talking to Trump on the safety of the nuclear plant issue. Since Xi is free now from the NPC conclave, it is likely that that both XI and Putin will be more active in the coming days in finding out ways for cessation of hostilities.

Just like China, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a big stake in Trump. There is no country in Europe friendly to Russia. Europe in fact is angry with Trump for allowing Putin to play his ball. Trump is again organizing a meeting for Ukraine peace talks. Putin wants to get out of the mess with his head high. That is only possible with the help of Trump. Both Xi and Putin have condemned the killing of senior Khamenei and the US-Israel attack against Iran. Trump is accustomed to such verbal attacks. He does not bother for such statements. His objective is to keep China and Russia out of direct active assistance to Iran at this stage. That is happening. Iran is fighting the US-Israel war on its own.

China will be happy with an emerging scenario in West Asia with Iran and US equally battered. That will give big advantage to China since China is the only country globally apart from USA which is in a position to shell out huge funds for reconstruction of Iran. That will be welcome to Russia also. But Trump may be maverick, but he is not a fool. His political survival depends on his coming out of Iran war with his head high. He will see till the last that he achieves his objective. What will be stand of China and Russia then? (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The resounding victory of the Gen Z supported Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in the March 5 general elections in Nepal is a game changer not only in the political history of this tiny Himalayan nation but also in the evolving polity of South Asia. Nepal is now the second country in South Asia which is witnessing the installation of a government backed by the youth movement that ousted the government run by a traditional political party through revolt in the second week of September 2025.

Only in another country of South Asia, in Sri Lanka, more or less the same scenario was witnessed in September 2024, when the leader of the National People’s Power (PPP) won the presidential elections by defeating the traditional political parties of Sri Lanka which ul3d the island nation for decades. The 2023 Sri Lanka elections were held following the ouster of the ruling government in the students and people’s revolt in 2022 against price rise and unemployment.

In another country of South Asia, Bangladesh, the students revolt led to the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government in August 2024 but the national elections on February 12 this year did not lead to any youth led government. Rather the party formed by the protagonists of revolt to overthrow the Hasina government faced a big defeat and the traditional party BNP had aa two third win. So Bangladesh missed the bus while Sri Lanka and Nepal succeeded.

The final results of Nepal elections have not yet been received but the trends indicate that the RSP is set to cross 100 seats out of the total of 165 seats to which direct elections were held. The other parties Nepal Congress led by Gagan Thapa, the CPN(UML) led by former prime minister K P. S Oli and the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) led by Prachanda are far behind struggling to touch two digits. Indications are that the RSP, on its own will be able to form the new government without depending on any other party. So far in the last two decades of parliamentary democracy, the trend in Nepal was that no political party had majority on its own. The coalition was formed after the elections to run the government. The partners changed a number of times leading to the fall of the ministry and then forming of a new combination to remain in power. This trend is being discontinued from the 2026 elections.

The RSP is the youngest of the political parties in Nepal which are in the fray in 2026 elections. RSP was founded in 2022 before the elections. The party contested in 131 constituencies and got 10.7 per cent of the votes winning 7 seats in direct elections and 13 seats under proportional representation. The party is ed by Baba Lamchane a media owner. Former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah joined RSP later and won the elections in 2026 by defeating former PM K P S Oli. He is so popular that he is being tipped to become the next PM of RSP government. Sushila Karki, the interim Prime Minister of Nepal government is close to Shah as also the senior leaders of the Gen Z movement. Balendra Shah acted as a mentor to the Gen Z. In fact at one stage, there was some discussion about Gen Z forming a party of their own, but finally, they rallied behind Shah and RSP.

In Nepal, the movement was started by the Gen Z including the school students in protest against the government order to ban social media platforms. The movement then turned into a total opposition to the ruling K P S Oli government and all the established political parties. There were clashes between security forces and demonstrators but Nepalese army took a cautionary stand. After the situation went out of control, the Nepalese army chief told PM Oli to step down. He and his government resigned. The Army chief in consultations with Gen Z leaders and civil society leaders helped in the formation of an interim government led by the former Chief Justice Sushila Karki.

There are 275 seats in Nepal Parliament lower house. Out of this, 165 seats are meant for direct elections and the remaining 110 will be filled through proportional representation. In Nepal, all major parties contest in all seats and after their strength is known after the elections, the parties go for alliance after the elections. In the same pattern, 73 year old K P S Oli, the ousted PM is leading Communist Party of Nepal-UML (Unified Marxist Leninist). He was earlier in alliance with the Nepali Congress before the September ouster. Another former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal known as Prachanda, the former PM heads the Nepal Communist Party. He has been able to rope in other communist factions under him. He has emerged as the main challenger to Oli.

While both Communist Parties have retained the traditional leaders, the Nepali Congress, the country’s oldest political party elected a young Gagan Thapa as its new leader in January this year. The 49 year old popular leader replaces the veteran Sher Bahadur Deuba,79, who was PM five times in varying combination of alliances in the last two decades since the establishment of democracy after 2006.

35 year old Balendra Shah is an engineer and a rapper. He earned immense good will during his tenure as Mayor of Kathmandu. He is known as a fighter against corrupt practices. He has collected around RSP some civil rights activists who may be his advisers if he takes over as PM. Balendra is known for some anti-Indian comments but he is a rational person and is not Xenophobic. He got his masters in engineering from a n Indian institute. He has good grasp of India Nepal relations. It will be seen how the bilateral relations proceeds during the tenure of the new government in Nepal. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Only a week has passed since the BNP supremo Tarique Rahman has taken over as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the resounding victory of his party in the February 12 national elections. The 60 year old PM who is back to the country after an exile of 17 years in Britain, is supposed to give all priority to the rebuilding the tattered economy and the administration in the country, but his focus has shifted as all on a sudden, the US administration has got overactive and intervening in the internal affairs of Bangladesh by asking the new government to take a position against China.

Such an open assertion by the US has not been seen in the recent months. In fact, the US embassy officials were not so much active in the first half of the tenure of the interim government, but the situation changed as the February 12 election was approaching. There was a sudden change in Trump administration’s approach to Bangladesh. The new U.S. ambassador Brent Christensen joined his duty in Dhaka on January 12 this year, just one month before the February 12 elections. Since then, US officials including Brent have been cultivating both the BNP and the Jamaat leaders in an effort to outsmart the Chinese envoy Yo Wen who has been active in Dhaka for the last three years establishing wide contacts at every level of the government and the political parties.

After the taking over as the Prime Minister, Tarique Rahman and his foreign minister Khalilur Rahman, a highly experienced foreign service officer reviewed as usual the relationship with the three major countries India, USA and China and what steps should be taken in the interests of Bangladesh. A review of the just announced US-Bangladesh trade deal was also under discussion. Issues about the balancing of the relationship with all the three major countries were under radar.

When all the initial discussions were going on, on Saturday February 21, the US ambassador Brent Christensen in a harsh statement said that he was concerned at the broader Chinese influence in South Asia without naming Bangladesh. The letter sent by Trump to Tarique also mentioned that US-Bangladesh partnership is based on mutual respect and a shared interest in fostering a free and open Indo-Pacific. This virtually means that the US wants Bangladesh as a partner in its Indo-Pacific security strategy against China, just as Trump has roped in India as a partner in its anti-China security strategy.

So for Tarique Rahman, even before he has stabilized his position, he is under a threat by the U.S that the new Bangladesh government has to be a part of the US strategy against China if the new government wants to foster better relations with the USA. Naturally, China also reacted vehemently next day as the Chinese envoy Yo Wen met the Bangladesh foreign minister and mentioned that China appreciates Bangladesh declaration of following Bangladesh First policy and China’s cooperation to Dhaka will be all pervasive and it is not targeted against any third country.

Tarique government is very embarrassed at the anti-China slant of the US embassy from the soil of Dhaka but the government can do precious little to prevent the U.S from playing its big brother role. Political sources in Dhaka say that the US is worried at the last defence pact between Bangladesh and China. The US wants that Bangladesh should not pursue its future talks with China for defence cooperation.

As per as perception is concerned, Bangladesh people mostly nurse sentiments against both the India and the US. In the last eighteen months since the fall of the Hasina government on August 5, 2024, the influence of China has increased among the people compared to the decline in sentiments for US. In the last visit of interim head Dr. Yunus to China early 2025, a big breakthrough was made in China’s investment in establishing industrial estates in different districts of Bangladesh. There was an agreement of a factory for drones near the Indian border within Bangladesh. Tarique government is now asked by the US to review the agreements afresh.

Onesided terms of a recently signed U.S. trade deal have highlighted how new Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman faces a delicate balancing act when it comes to ties with Washington and Beijing as the two vie for influence in his country. On one side, the U.S. is touting market access, security cooperation and regulatory leverage, while China is offering infrastructure, industrial integration and defense supplies.

China remains Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and a dominant infrastructure investor, financing projects from port modernization to industrial zones. The U.S. is Bangladesh’s largest export market and had for a long time been its biggest foreign investor, though foreign direct investment (FDI) stock has fallen sharply — from roughly $4 billion in the fiscal year through June 2023 to about $1 billion as of September 2025, due to the political turmoil and weak investor confidence during Yunus regime.

Chinese FDI stock in Bangladesh had reached about $3 billion as of September 2025. Beijing has also extended zero-tariff access to Bangladeshi exports alongside several other least developed countries, first granting duty-free access to 98% of products in 2022 and later expanding the offer. China is very keen to maintain its position as a major defence system supplier to Bangladesh. This is now being objected to by the Trump administration. This was not the situation in the earlier years.

Beijing is closely monitoring the developments in Bangladesh. President Xi Jinping himself met Dr. Yunus at his meeting and took personal interest in expanding ties with Bangladesh so that the South Asian country can create substantial jobs with Chinese assistance. China will not like its agreements to be nullified due to US pressure. Tarique Rahman is under tremendous pressure from his advisers as also think tank to stick to Bangladesh First policy and act taking into account strategic autonomy of Bangladesh as per the BNP manifesto. Next few days will show whether Tarique has the guts to defy US pressure and act taking into account the interests of Bangladesh only. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the right move in sending a personal message to the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh Tarique Rahman by stating that “your victory is a testimony to the trust and confidence reposed by the people of Bangladesh in your leadership and their mandate for your vision to take the country forward on the path of peace, stability and prosperity”. This is a virtual endorsement of the legality of the verdict and PM’s full confidence in the role of the new PM of the BNP led government in improving the bilateral relations between the two countries.

It is clear that at the moment, there is no option left for the Indian government other than going the wholehog with the new BNP government and PM Rahman is the best bet. But the hard reality is that at the present moment, Tarique Rahman has no option but to vigorously pursue the issue of extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India to Dhaka as per the Tribunal and then the Court order as also the commitment of the BNP during the election campaign.

For BNP, the main worrying factor is the highly energised Jamaat E Islami which as the second largest party has 77 seats of its alliance and which will use every step of the PM Tarique favourable to India to propagate that Tarique is going the way of Hasina. India is using him against Bangladesh’s interests. So Tarique’s hands are tied. Even if he wants a friendly approach towards India, he has to pass the test of his Bangladesh loyalty as the Jamaat is sitting over his neck both in Parliament and outside in the streets which decide the fate of regimes in Bangladesh politics.

Indian foreign ministry has seasoned diplomats. So it was good to see that the foreign secretary Vikram Misry very silently met Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman on Tuesday itself during the day of oath taking by Tarique Rahman. This was the most significant meeting because foreign secretary knew the person who would be wielding real powers in deciding the course of India-Bangladesh relations and he would have to be pampered. It is not known how the Jamaat leader reacted, but for Indian officials, this interaction with Jamaat has to be a part of diplomatic process if India really want early improvement in bilateral relations.

Right now, let me explain why Jamaat’s role is very important for maintaining security on Indian borders along Bangladesh. In February 12 elections in all the birder districts of Bangladesh, Jamaat has done extremely well leading to apprehensions among the Indian home ministry officials, especially the BSF honchos of the eastern region. In Khulna, Rajsahi, Rangpur districts of Bangladesh bordering Wet Bengal, Jamaat has swept. For instance in Khulna, Jamaat got 25 out of 36 seats. These border districts harbour lot of anti-Indian elements including insurgents who were earlier sheltered by Jamaat during the BNP-Jamaat rule. Sheikh Hasina stopped it after 2009. In fact, the Jamaat was disallowed to operate later, its foreign funds were banned. Now with full domination of border districts, the hooligan elements of Jamaat will have a free play unless they are restrained from the top. This has been done both at the level of BNP government and also at the level of Jamaat leadership. Indian government can ensure that better by keeping close coordination with Jamaat.

Let me mention a few points which are not discussed at all. Bangladesh constitutionally is a secular republic that also designates Islam as a state religion. Out of the 18 crore population, nearly 17 crore are Muslims and nearly one minorities, mostly Hindus. Like other Islamic countries, there is always a group of fundamentalists in Bangladesh. Jamaat has got many sane elements who are rational towards the minorities, at the same time, there are fringe groups who are rabid anti Hindus and anti-Indian. In India, we have a secular constitution. There is no state religion, but still the fringe elements of the BJP belonging to RSS and Bajrang Dal are rabid anti-Muslims despite the fact that Muslims constitute more than 14 per cent of the Indian population.

Prime Minister Office (PMO) officials have made enough mistakes in the last eighteen months after the installation of the interim government in Bangladesh. PM Narendra Modi did not respond to Dr. Yunus request for meeting during his term. Indian PM deliberately changed his schedule in New York UN meeting to avoid meeting Dr. Yunus. Home Minister Amit Shah called the Bangladeshis termites during the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign. All these mistakes intensified anti-India feelings in Bangladesh. Even the earlier pro India elements in Bangladesh turned anti-Indian. Lastly, the Modi Government inspired BCCI decision to disallow the Bangladeshi cricketer Mustafizur Rahman from playing in IPL ignited the anti-India feelings further. Modi led government has to pay for these for some more time even though now suddenly PM is going overboard to hug Tarique which he did with Nawaz Sharief of Pakistan in his initial period of PM.

The improvement of ties with Bangladesh will be a long tortured journey. Indian officials have to cultivate both BNP PM and opposition Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman. At the same time, India should ensure that talks other than Sheikh Hasina extradition start in right earnest to improve the relations. Especially, the economic issues should get focus now. Hasina issue will take long and by starting the healing process with economic assistance, India may build the base for a viable solution of Hasina extradition issue. Both BNP and Jamaat have to be persuaded by India to opt for this approach. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Just twenty days after the February 12 national elections in Bangladesh, another South Asian country Nepal is going to the polls on March 5 just six months after the Gen Z movement in the country ousted the K P S Oli government in September 2025. The official poll campaign under the interim government began on February 16 and it will end on March 3-48 hours before the polling day. The elections are taking place under the interim government led by the Prime Minister Sushila Karki.

There are some similarities as well as dissimilarities in the way the snap elections have been organized in both countries. In Bangladesh, the students led by anti-discriminatory body launched the movement initially for the removal of discrimination on quota in February 2024 after the new Awami League government was installed in January2024 after the national elections which were boycotted by most of the opposition parties. This movement took a militant shape in July after many killings and clashes between the supporters of students movement and the security forces as also ruling Awami League supporters. The students movement then turned into a national movement of opposition against the Awami League rule. This led to the ouster of the Awami League government and the fleeing of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024 to India.

As against this, in Nepal, the movement was started by the Gen Z including the school students in protest against the government order to ban social media platforms. The movement then turned into a total opposition to the ruling K P S Oli government and all the established political parties. There were clashes between security forces and demonstrators but Nepalese army took a cautionary stand. After the situation went out of control, the Nepalese army chief told PM Oli to step down. He and his government resigned. The Army chief in consultations with Gen Z leaders and civil society leaders helped in the formation of an interim government led by the former Chief Justice Sushila Karki.

The difference is that in Nepal, there was little bloodshed, while in Bangladesh, during the movement about 1500 persons lost their lives. In Bangladesh, PM Sheikh Hasina fled to India and Awami League was banned. In February 12 elections in Bangladesh, the AL was not present. Its rival BNP won bagging 212 sets out of the total of 300 seats in new Parliament. In Nepal, no party was banned, all political parties , about 50 including all the major ruling parties have been allowed to take part in March 5 polls. The last PM K P S Oli kept hiding for a few days only after the September ouster, but he very soon started organizing his party cadres. All the earlier political leaders have come back though there has been some change in Nepal Congress leadership.

There are 275 seats in Nepal Parliament lower house. Out of this, 165 seats are meant for direct elections and the remaining 110 will be filled through proportional representation. In Nepal, all major parties contest in all seats and after their strength is known after the elections, the parties go for alliance after the elections. In the same pattern, 73 year old K P S Oli, the ousted PM is leading Communist Party of Nepal-UML (Unified Marxist Leninist). He was earlier in alliance with the Nepali Congress before the September ouster. Another former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal known as Prachanda, the former PM heads the Nepal Communist Party. He has been able to rope in other communist factions under him. He has emerged as the main challenger to Oli.

While both Communist Parties have retained the traditional leaders, the Nepali Congress, the country’s oldest political party has elected a young Gagan Thapa as its new leader in January this year. The 49 year old popular leader replaces the veteran Sher Bahadur Deuba,79, who was PM five times in varying combination of alliances in the last two decades since the establishment of democracy after 2006.

As against the traditional political parties dominating the Nepal political scene in the last two decades, the new party supported by a good section of Gen Z is Rashtriya Prajantantra Party (RPP) led by the 50 year old television host Rabi Lamichhane. A former deputy prime minister and home minister Lamichhane has formed an alliance with Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah, 35, a rapper and civil engineer with considerable social media following. Shah is the alliance’s PM candidate. He is a fighter against corruption and has the support of a good section of Gen Z.

In Bangladesh, the student protestors formed a political party of their own National Citizen Party (NCP) in February 2025 and contested the February 12 elections in alliance with Jamaat e Islami. The NCP contested 30 seats and got only six. It was a big defeat for the NCP since it proved that the NCP programme and its actions have no endorsement from the people. As against this, the Gen Z protestors in Nepal have not set up any political party of their own. They are supporting RPP and some of them are contesting. In the current poll campaign, the independent voice of Gen Z will not be heard though some of them may focus on fight against corruption.

In October last year, along with the national elections on March 5, talks were held for were held for holding a referendum on some of the major issues relating to eradication of corruption and protection of rights. Karki was expected to take a decision on this referendum issue. On the pattern of Bangladesh which witnessed the polling on referendum also along with Parliament on February 12. But ultimately, this was not endorsed. So, the newly elected government of Nepal after March 5 polls will be deciding on holding of referendum as also framing of a new Constitution if they think so.

Like Bangladesh, Nepalese youth also have failed to take proper follow up actions on the hopes of a new society raised by them during the movement. The Nepalese Gen Z who are very active in social media and many of them earn good money through these platforms failed to put forward a new charter which will excite the people in the country who are fed up with the rule of the same political leaders through shifting alliances for two decades. The March 5 polls again go back to that same set of people against whom the September revolt was held. The only new development is the campaign of the RPP supported by the Gen Z but whose organizational strength is yet to reach every part of the country. Still, it is to be seen whether the RPP under young leaders can perform any miracle in March 5 elections. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The landslide win of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the national elections in Bangladesh held on February 12 is a positive development in the geopolitics of not only South Asia, but also augurs well for the bilateral relationship between India and its eastern neighbour. BNP getting more than two-thirds of the total 300 seats in the new parliament by defeating the main rival Jamaat-e-Islami, known for its fundamentalist stance, is a big relief for the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, as also the Narendra Modi-led government in India.

Latest reports indicate that out of the 299 seats where the elections were held, the BNP got 210, Jamaat-led alliance got 76 and the others bagged seven. For BNP, this has been the best ever performance in general elections held so far. Previously, in 2001 elections, the BNP formed the government after getting 193 seats, its highest tally until the 2026 elections broke its own record. Simultaneously, Jamaat has catapulted itself to the centre-stage of national politics by getting 76 seats in the polls. Its previous best performance was only 18 seats in 1991 elections.

There are major lessons from the February 12 elections which many have termed “historic’” since the July Revolution of 2024 which led to the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5, 2024. This was mainly engineered by students. The students body formed their party, National Citizens Party (NCP) and fought elections in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami. There were only two major alliances. Of course, it must be recalled that the Awami Party, the erstwhile ruling party for most of the years since 1972, was banned from participating from the 2026 general elections.

Let us look at the major takeaways from the February 12 elections.

Firstly, the elections were held free and fair. The voting percentage crossed 60 per cent and the people voted with enthusiasm as if they were enjoying a festival. The EU observers were happy that the elections were held impartially. There were few clashes even though there was tense rivalry between the two contending groups during the poll campaign. Taking into account that the voters numbered at over 12 crores, a handful of inter-party clashes can be termed insignificant. So, it was a great achievement for the Yunus-led interim regime to hold the elections in a democratic environment.

Secondly, the BNP has been able to get the support of the people on the basis of its moderate approach and its emphasis on giving a stable government. The people were fed up with continuous turmoil which was affecting their livelihood. They were looking for a sane leader who would really care for the administration. Tarique Rahman, the current BNP supremo and the son of the late former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has shown maturity so far. Despite thumping victory, he has appealed to his supporters not to hold any victory parade. This is a welcome move to avoid clashes with Jamaat supporters, who are talking of polling irregularities.

Thirdly, Jamaat has finally emerged as the second largest party in Bangladesh politics. Its present strength is now sufficient to challenge BNP in their parliament after it forms the government. Jamaat will expectedly take more anti-India stance as the opposition party to retain its base. This means that BNP leadership will be hamstrung in taking a very cordial position in dealing with India. Always, its negotiations with the Indian government will be under intense Jamaat scrutiny.

Fourthly, the Bangladesh politics raised big hopes after the July Revolution that a new Bangladesh with equity and dignity would emerge. Those hopes have shattered. The NCP, which contested 30 seats in alliance with Jamaat, has been rejected by the voters. The details are yet not available, but the trends are clear. The old style of Bangladesh politics is back, the only difference is that Awami League is not in the game at present. Bangladesh is back to two-party system, but it’s now BNP and Jamaat in the absence of the banned Awami League.

For India, Tarique Rahman as the Prime Minister is the best possible option to improve bilateral relations, which got derailed under the interim government of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, following the ouster of the Awami League government in August 2024. Indian policy makers made a lot of mistakes in dealing with Bangladesh in the last 18 months. The latest was the BCCI decision at the instance of the BJP to ask KKR to disallow the Bangladeshi cricketer Mustafizur Rahman to play in the IPL. Until then, anti-India sentiments were at a low ebb. The election campaign was on. This mistake could have been avoided by India. But, it was done aggravating the anti-India mood in Bangladesh, spanning all political parties.

This is the sort of myopic decision which ought to be avoided by India. The Modi government should start the process of healing in a much softer way. Tarique Rahman also has to move slowly and he will certainly take up the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s return to Dhaka from Indian soil. Jamaat will focus all its campaign on it to embarrass the new BNP prime minister.PM Modi has to find ways how to deal with this issue without giving up India’s old friend, former PM Sheikh Hasina. Modi has done a good job by being the first Prime Minister to congratulate Tarique Rahman on BNP’s smashing victory and expressing his wish to cooperate with his government to build a democratic inclusive Bangladesh. PM Modi now has to follow up his good wishes with concrete moves for assisting the new BNP government. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ministers in the Government as also loyal experts are having a pathetic time in explaining the great benefits that the Indo-US Trade Deal are conferring to India, especially the agricultural sector which is one of the major focus area of the US President Donald Trump.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is acting like a big joker as he is saying in his stage managed interviews to the media on a daily basis that our Prime Minister has done a wonderful job in extracting maximum benefits from a recalcitrant Donald Trump. He is saying all these when the intricacies of the full deal will only be available by the middle of March this year and Trump has already said that the US has the right to make changes any time if he is not satisfied. This is on line with the earlier Trump assertion “I am the law, I decide what is right or wrong”

Let me mention here of a personal anecdote which will help in explaining the massive strength of the American farm lobby in influencing its own government and also the global farm trade. In 1999 December I attended the World Trade Organisation (WTO) ministerial meeting from November 30 to December 3 in Seattle in USA as a part of the media delegation of the Indian government. President of USA was Bill Clinton and he addressed the conference calling for complete abolition of subsidies by the European Union countries. On the contrary, EU demanded that the US must reduce its farm subsidies since the amount was staggering 50 per cent of the US budget and the total US farm subsidies in 1999 was 85 per cent of the total global farm subsidies amount.

The two warring sides failed to arrive at a compromise solution and finally the WTO conference collapsed without coming out with a joint declaration. I asked my American journalist friend why the US was so adamant on retaining all its subsidies? My friend replied — the next presidential elections are due in 2000 November. Clinton has promised the farm lobby that he will force the EU to curb the EU subsidies. But since he failed, it will have adverse impact for the Democratic Party in 2000 elections. Exactly the same thing happened. Republicans campaigned among the vast farming community of the USA that Clinton had surrendered to the EU and the farmers are losing. Democrats lost the 2000 November elections, junior George Bush was elected as the new President of the Republican Party.

Exactly, 26 years later, the scenario in USA is no different. President Trump is facing his midterm elections in November this year. The signals are not that bright. He badly needs to win to continue with his policies, a defeat in midterm means big restraint on his powers though he will remain president for two more years. The US farmers are the biggest voting base of any political party in USA. In 2024, the US farmers got a subsidy through government payments to the tune of $ 9.3 billion but in the first year of Trump, it went up to $42.4 billion more than four times in 2025. What a massive jump?

Now armed with these huge subsidies, the US farm producers will enter the burgeoning market for agri products in India and flood the domestic market with cheaper goods to throw out the Indian competitors. Piyush Goyal is talking of protecting the interests of the Indian farmers after allowing the big market access to the US producers. Bullshit. It is like talking of a level playing field by fielding a rich American shark with deep pockets and an Indian producer on the same turf. As happened in some of the Latin American countries, the US producers will in the first phase offer cheaper goods bringing smile to the consumers. Then when the locals are out, the US producers will raise the prices as the alternative has dried up. In India, the scenario may be not so bad, but the poor and middle level agriculturists will be hit.

The fact sheet on India-US deal released by the White House on Tuesday was later revised a bit but that does not alter the main focus of the deal which is totally favourable to the US and under which India gives Trump the right to tinkle with the agreement details whenever he feels. If this is not the surrender of the strategic autonomy, what is that? As this writer explained before in another piece, the Trump-Modi deal is a part of common sharing of views on geopolitics, especially relating to the security threat from China. It seems that the Prime Minister has been coerced to opt for the Asia-Pacific strategy of the USA.

That way, the leader of the opposition Rahul Gandhi is not off the mark when he accuses the Prime Minister of surrendering the interests of the 1.4 billion people of India. Our Prime Minister had a big opportunity to emerge taller as the real leader of the Global South. Unfortunately for the Indian nation, he has missed it and is now again following the old path wooing Trump at the cost of national interests? (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Bangladesh, Nepal and now Myanmar. Indian foreign policy makers are clueless in dealing with the developing situation. Myanmar’s three phase general elections organized by the military junta ended on January 25 and the results were released on January 29 and 30. As expected, the military aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won the rigged elections securing 232 of the 263 seats in the lower house and 109 of 157 seats in the upper house.

Myanmar’s new Parliament will meet in March to elect the new President, possibly the present chief of the junta. He will choose his ministers from the army backed party and the new government will formalize the army rule through USDP. This will be just five years after the junta ousted the Suu Kyi government in February 2021. Suu Kyi is in jail with bad health. Her party is banned and the rebels loyal to China have been managed by Beijing as officially the Chinese government has given recognition to the USDP of the junta. China is sure to have its say in the formation of the new army government.

It is interesting to monitor the Chinese strategy of support to the rebel groups loyal to Beijing and simultaneously keeping all its relations with the junta using its leverage with the rebels to extract concessions from the Myanmar regime. China has protected its investments and expanded its influence among the army generals. After five years, China is the biggest beneficiary of Myanmar coup marginalizing USA, Russia and India which once had Myanmar, the old Burma as its part under British India.

The Suu Kyi led National League of Democracy which was the ruling party before the coup, was able to organize resistance along with other civil society organisations as also students, but the nature of resistance varied from province to province. In the provinces adjoining China, the rebels were helped by the Chinese army thereby helping the process of their consolidation.

As per the Myanmar experts, as of December 2025, 91 townships were entirely under the control of resistance forces, with 144 partially under their control. The military remains partially in control of the areas where the elections took place. Not only is military strength depleted, but morale also remains relatively low. The military regime has reinitiated air strikes to regain control over northern Shan State and areas surrounding the capital.

Since the coup, the junta has systematically banned dozens of political parties and detained more than 30,000 political prisoners. In January 2026, the regime initiated legal action against more than 400 individuals under an “election protection” law passed in July 2025. The law criminalises virtually all forms of criticism of the electoral process, outlawing speech, organising, or protest deemed to disrupt any aspect of voting, making the entire exercise a clear example of pervasive surveillance.

From the beginning of the coup in February 2021, China has been playing a dual role since it needs the support of the junta to protect its projects under China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). China even employed its own forces to protect its projects. The junta in fact allowed free mixing of its army troops with the Chinese security forces even when the junta troops were engaged with the pro-China rebels.

Where does India stand after the national elections in Myanmar leading to the formation of a army government within few weeks? India has a 1,643 km border with Myanmar. In the past five years, lot of affected people from Myanmar including both Rohingya muslims and rebels took shelter in the states in India adjoining the Myanmar border. India has also big investment in Myanmar. Many Indian companies including public sector are operating.

India-backed connectivity projects — namely the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway — while extremely crucial, are likely to remain operationally problematic. China has recently signed a cooperation agreement with the junta. India has been taking a moral position of not identifying with Junta though the official ties were not broken. India tried to establish contacts with the non -junta groups and also a part of rebels late last year but no final framework was built. As a result now, China has all the advantages. It has the support of the upcoming government as also the leverage with the rebels. India has none.

The western nations have not recognized the elections yet, but the U.S is not giving that much interest on Myanmar as of now. So China is all pervading in terms of its diplomatic influence which is not a welcome news for India. New Delhi has to make deep introspection and come out with a concrete strategy on Myanmar once the new government starts functioning. Myanmar is very important strategically from the point of security for India. New Delhi can not let the country out completely to the lap of China. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Nearly 48 hours after Donald Trump’s announcement about the India-US trade deal and Narendra Modi’s confirmation in his telephonic conversation, much has been written in the media by the experts, mostly following the lead given by the commerce minister Piyush Goyal in his press meet on Tuesday as to what positive impacts are taking place in different sectors of the economy. On the other hand, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi came out with a scathing statement saying that Modi was under pressure and he surrendered.

Rahul Gandhi’s focus has always been on the failings of the PM. He mentioned two reasons of pressure from the US- one due to Adanis and second, some more information in Epstein files relating to PM. These two may or may not be the main reasons, but one of the major factors leading to Trump’s reduction of tariff rate for India was the expectation that he would get India by his side in his battle against China in Indo-Pacific on security issue. Trump wanted to formalize it before his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in April this year.

That way, I am not saying Like Rahul Gandhi that Indian PM has fully surrendered to Trump giving up India’s strategic autonomy. My observation is that Trump is putting high pressure on Narendra Modi to surrender on the Deal linking it with his geo political strategy in India-Pacific, but Modi still has not fully given up. He is still trying to wriggle out of Trump trap with his head high by working on some face saving formula.

Why I am saying so? Just look at the contents of the social media messages of Indian external affairs minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and the US secretary state Marco Rubio issued on Wednesday morning. Both had talks on the eve of the US convened meeting on critical minerals convened in Washington on February 4. Pakistan is also attending this meeting. Rubio said in this message that the Indian foreign minister and he discussed bilateral cooperation on critical materials, exploration, development, mining. They concluded the meeting by expressing their commitment to expanding bilateral and multilateral commitment through QUAD. They acknowledged that a prosperous Indo-Pacific region remains vital to advancing common interests.

As against this, Jaishankar said in his message in X that facets of India-US strategic partnership discussed including trade, energy, critical minerals, defence, technology. Agreed to continue meetings of various mechanisms to advance our shared interests. There was no mention of QUAD, there was no mention of India-Pacific as was mentioned by Rubio.

It was significant that the importance of QUAD was underlined by Rubio after a gap of more than six months. Since SCO and BRICS meetings of the Indian PM and his gesture of aligning with global South and cordial meetings with both President Putin and President Xi Jinping, Trump got cold on the Indian PM and there was a talk in the White House that Trump was not interested to hold QUAD meeting in India as scheduled last year end. India also avoided mentioning about QUAD meeting schedule. India is supposed to be the host for the next meeting. So suddenly raising this issue of cooperation through QUAD by Rubio means that Trump has changed his tactics. He wants to browbeat Modi to be in the US side against China before he meets the Chinese President. All details of Trump-Modi phone conversation are not available, but my hunch is that Trump must have mentioned this to Modi in his talks on Monday night. Otherwise within 24 hours of Trump-Modi talks, Rubio would not have raised QUAD meet and India Pacific strategy with Dr. Jaishankar after keeping the issue under carpet for more than six months. Jaishankar did not reciprocate it means so far, PM has not made up his mind on the issue though certainly he is under pressure from the U.S. President.

But why it is that Trump suddenly became cosy to Narendra Modi within three weeks of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant saying that India has missed the train. That is not a priority for US now. Both Rubuio and Bessant are eyes and ears of Trump. So what Bessant said at that time had the stamp of Trump just as what Rubio told the Indian foreign minister on Tuesday also had the approval of Trump.

The hard reality is that Trump really needs India and Narendra Modi by his side in his Asia Pacific strategy before he starts bargaining with the Chinese President in April this year. Despite all his bravado, Trump is a bit isolated. His relations with the EU, his normal allies are not good. They are sulking on the issue of Greenland. India is a very powerful nation. If he gets India as an active member of QUAD, he feels stronger in dealing with the Chinese President in the talks. The Beijing talks will not just focus on the trade deal, it will deliberate on the security issues including Taiwan and the South China Sea. So from geo political aspect, Narendra Modi has become again important for Trump.

As far as I see, Narendra Modi is still negotiating for ensuring that the final prints at the last stage of negotiations before the deal is 100 per cent final. But as Trump is known for, he wants his pound of flesh and that in February itself. Now whether the Indian Prime Minister gives up completely to Trump pressure or is able to work out a face saving formula, that is to be seen. If the PM opts for strategic autonomy for India and refuses to be a part of Trump’s India-Pacific strategy against China, its impact certainly will be felt in finalizing the trade deal. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The announcement on India-US trade deal was expected, but the manner in which both President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi did the same in social media has led to big confusion. After a phone call with Narendra Modi, Trump claimed on Monday that the US had reached a trade arrangement with India to roll back the punishing tariffs he had imposed on Indian products from 25 percent to 18 percent, in return for India’s dropping its tariffs on some American goods, buying more US products, and ceasing its purchases of Russian oil.

In a post on social media, Modi wrote that he was “delighted” by the tariff reduction but was spare on details, including whether his country would stop buying Russian oil as Trump had claimed. He even did not mention that the trade deal had been finalized. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Modi wrote.

Modi also didn’t mention what Trump said India is “committed to buy American goods at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billion of US Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products,” and that India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.”

There was a noticeable gap in tone between the statements issued by the US and Indian leaders following their phone call. There was much excitement in New Delhi among the BJP as also in the Government circles. Everyone was expecting a follow up detailed from the Indian government side, but nothing came out. Even at his Party MP’s meeting, Modi did not give more details, excepting saying that patience on behalf of India paid off.

What is the exact situation? The government sources give nothing more excepting telling to wait for more details from Washington. It is clear that Trump has agreed to bring down the reciprocal trade rate to 18 per cent as against the current 50 per cent including 25 per cent penalty. It takes into immediate effect, according to Trump. If it is so, it is a big gain for India as against its competitors China at 37 per cent, Vietnam 20 per cent, Bangladesh 20 per cent and even Pakistan 19 per cent.

But what concessions India gave to the US in agricultural commodities sector including soyabean, dairy and others. Has Modi agreed to stop all imports of oil from Russia even at a cheaper price? Earlier also Trump claimed that India has stopped imports from Russia, but the imports were coming based on the competitive pricing. In fact even now, as per the international oil trade sources, Russian crude is $ 16 cheaper compared to the American crude oil. If India stops full imports of Russian oil, India has to incur this additional cost. Has Modi really agreed to this. If he has agreed, he should come out and tell it openly.

In a trade deal these days, there is always give and take. So there is nothing wrong in agreeing to some concessions from India in order to get other concessions from the US which are more important for India in national interests. But the negotiations have to be on equal basis as India is India, the leading emerging economy with the potential of becoming the third largest economy in 2028 with the single largest market in the world, surpassing even China. Modi is representing its 1.4 billion people and cannot sacrifice national interests at the dictat of Trump.

The question is whether India retained its strategic autonomy while agreeing to the terms of Trump. Prime Minister has a great responsibility in coming out with details about the deal if it is already done. Or, if it is still not final and 18 per cent tariff is just the framework, he should also say so. Trump will continue to say many more things in his Truth social. Those will remain unchallenged if Narendra Modi does not tell the real position.

Back-to-back trade agreements with the European Union and the United States – one hailed as the “mother of all trade deals” and the other to slash tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent – are widely expected to boost the economy, adding a potential US$150 billion in exports over a decade., say the experts close to the government.

The agreements will drop tariffs and ease market barriers, while also boosting India’s manufacturing sector, including the labour-intensive textile sector. India however can not expect its competitive edge against China to last long as Trump is visiting China in April this year to finalise the US-China trade deal and the tariff rate for China is sure to go down to less than 20 per cent. It can be at the level of EU at15 per cent or UK at the level of 10 percent. So India has to forget its competitive edge as against China very soon.

The 50 per cent US tariffs affected multiple sectors, including steel, textiles, and pharmaceuticals. Steel shipments to the US, for example, plummeted 40 per cent after the tariffs. The sector will be recovering and that will be of big help to the Indian economy at this stage. It is to be seen how finally the India-US trade deal is officially unveiled in its final form before evaluating its total impact on the Indian economy. (IPA Service)

The article Total Confusion Over The Status Of India-US Trade Deal Prevailing appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday, January 29 in Beijing assumes special significance at a time when Britain is fighting its transatlantic ally U.S. over the sovereignty of Greenland and President Trump has mentioned security threat from China and Russia in Arctic as the major reason for U.S. move for takeover of the island.

British PM sidelined the security issue at his Beijing meeting and focused more on economic collaboration and other issues of common interest. He was accompanied by a high powered 60 member business delegation who were advised to make the most of opportunities to invest in China. The Chinese officials hailed the four day visit as a pivotal moment in the China- Britain bilateral relations.

For the Chinese President Xi Jinping, the visit had its own importance as the western media is full of stories about the sacking of most of the top Chinese military leaders including the number two in the last four months since October this year. This was a major development of political consequence in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. There were questions whether Xi was in full control. The Chinese supremo gave the impression of having total control of the post-purge situation and went on scoring diplomatic success one by one, hurting China’s main rival the U.S.

Chinese foreign policy analysts see the outcome of Xi-Starmer summit as the indication of the significant changes in foreign policy thinking of the European nations, including NATO members. China-UK relations have endured a prolonged downturn lasting several years. The “hot and cold” China policy of 10 Downing Street has been a major factor, yet it has clearly failed to deliver the benefits Britain had imagined. France and Germany on the other hand took more practical steps in stepping up collaboration with China.

Some UK government sources suggest that ignoring China will only make the country “poorer and less secure. In the face of an “unpredictable” US, Western countries are increasingly seeking greater “predictability” in their external relations. Against this backdrop, Starmer’s remarks can be seen as keeping pace with a range of latest statements by Western leaders – or, put differently, as a sign that Britain has finally come to take its position considering its own interests, without bothering for U.S. reaction.

Data shows that China is the UK’s fourth-largest trading partner in 2025, with trade totaling approximately $137 billion. China, with a massive consumer base of over 1.4 billion people, is an important market that British companies are eager to expand into. This constitutes an internal driving force for the development of China-UK relations.

From a longer-term perspective, at a time when the international order is facing severe challenges, China and the UK, as permanent members of the UN Security Council and major global economies, share common interests and important responsibilities on major issues such as upholding the postwar international order and the multilateral trading system. There may be differences on other issues between the two countries but that not restrain the growth of trade and business relationship between the two mature economies.

Starmer is the latest among the European and G-7 nations to visit China during this trade war period of Donald Trump Over the past two months, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo have successively visited China, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also expressed a desire for a visit. All these visits are taking place in the context of President Xi’s call for a multilateral global trade order as against the militant unilateralism of Donald Trump. China is giving the impression that it is ready for filling the space vacated by the U.S. by abdicating its role as the leader of the old global order, but China is not saying it loudly, it is suggesting it through actions.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out when meeting Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on Tuesday, in a world confronted by multiple risks and challenges, the international community should join hands for response, adding that major countries should act as a good example to promote equality, observe the rule of law, pursue cooperation, and uphold integrity. The same approach XI mentioned to the other country heads when they met him.

The successful deals and meetings with the European nations and Canada are helping the Chinese President Xi Jinping is bargaining with the U.S. President Donald Trump when he visits Beijing in April this year for that crucial meeting which should lead to the conclusion of the China-US trade agreement. Trump will be meeting President Xi in a somewhat battered political state, unless something spectacular happens in American politics shoring up his fortunes. The US dollar is sinking, the Venezuela programme is in limbo as Trump’s massive oil and minerals development programme is getting no response from big US. Oil companies on the plea that the investments are uneconomic in terms of business. Trump is in a bind. He is also facing flak over his ICE programme against immigrants. Trump is also very worried at the outcome of November midterm polls.

All these may impact Trump’s bargaining power vis a vis President Xi in April summit. Despite the controversy over the recent military purges, Xi is benefitting from the stable growth of the Chinese economy in 2025 and its projected growth in 2026. There has been tremendous development in AI sector and research and development activities in the Chinese universities. If there is any bust in US stock market in AI sector due to too much investments by the U.S. high tech companies in AI without being sure of the revenues earned, the US economy will be affected, not so much the Chinese, where AI is based on much lower investment. These are worries for Trump. The April Trump-Xi summit will take place in this scenario. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

With the final list of eligible candidates announced on January 21 just three weeks before the crucial elections on February 12 in Bangladesh, the campaign has started in full swing. The trends so far give all the elements of a total polarization between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami each heading an alliance of a number of small political parties which on its own strength would not make any impact in the polls.

Awami League has been kept out of the electoral battle by the Election Commission. That way, BNP is the only other political party which has adequate experience in governance acting as the ruling party a number of times. Tarique Rahman, BNP chairman and son of former Prime Minister Begum Zia who passed away last month is making use of this governance and stability issue in his election meetings being attended by thousands in towns and districts. He is talking of stability which he claims only the BNP is in a position to ensure. The people are listening to him as he is cheered all along his route and given the reception by the party workers like the future Prime Minister of the country.

BNP is heading a ten party alliance contesting 272 constituencies out of the total of 300 leaving 28 seats to its small alliance partners. Other parties are so weak in strength that the BNP has to depend on its own strength to aspire for a majority in the Bangladesh Sansad by getting 151. BNP is making all efforts to get a majority on its own, but its leadership has kept the option open for having a coalition if it fails to get a majority.

As against this BNP led alliance, the Jamaat-e-Islami led eleven party alliance has broadened its coalition by roping in Jatiya Party which has some strength in a few districts. Jamaat on its own is contesting in 226 seats giving 74 seats to its allies, the major of which is the NCP, the party of the students movement, NCP, is contesting in 30 seats.NCP promises the building a New Bangladesh on the basis of its pro-people charter. Hopes were raised in the 2026 elections NCP would offer a platform for the forward looking forces, but those hopes were belied as factionalism and strong anti-Indian stance divided the party and vertically split the leadership. The students body of NCP faced a disaster when the elections to the students unions of all universities took place. Jamaat students body swept the polls and the BNP came distant second.

This was a big tragedy for the students movement in Bangladesh which always led the change and spearheaded all the revolutions in the country, starting with the movement for an Independent Bangladesh beginning 1971. Jamaat was always seen as a fanatic group by the majority of the Bangladesh students. Jamaat never got more than eight per cent in any elections in Bangladesh. But in the recent opinion polls, while the BNP was seen to have got 34 per cent votes, Jamaat got 29 per cent – very, very close. In the recent days, Jamaat has expanded its alliance base and it hopes to benefit from that expansion.

Jamaat has the support of the lower strata of the Bangladeshi Muslims who are vulnerable to hardcore religious propaganda. That way, Jamaat has got extensive mass base and it has funds of the west Asian countries. That way Jamaat has got high financial and organizational muscle power. Its anti-Indian rant has also helped in mobilizing the masses. Jamaat is campaigning that BNP is in cahoots with India and like Awami League, Bangladesh will be turned into a colony of India. NCP also is helping Jamaat as a part of the alliance in pursuing this anti-BNP and anti-Bangladesh agenda.

This campaign has made BNP supremo Tarique Rahman’s campaign stance more difficult. He has to compete with Jamaat in India-bashing for getting votes, though he told his close colleagues, Bangladesh cannot grow by keeping perpetual tensions with India. He will take steps to ease that. The BNP is also worried that the chief adviser Dr. Yunus is not well disposed to BNP, he might help some of his chosen Jamaat and NCP candidates.

In the coming days, the election battle will become more bitter. Soon it might turn into a battle of equals. All big foreign powers are taking keen interest in the outcome of the elections. China has established maximum contacts with the leaderships of BNP, Jamaat and NCP. The US officials after a gap, are hobnobbing with the BNP leaders. Indian High Commissioner Pranay Sharma had a meeting with Tarique Rahman recently. The Indian foreign office and the High Commission is paying the price due to the Modi government’s using the BCCI as the instrument of BJP policy.

The directive by the BCCI to KKR not to allow the Bangladesh player Mustafizur Rahman in IPL has immensely damaged the India-Bangladesh relations. This has become one of the campaign plank of Jamaat. New Delhi knew that the elections were in February and this issue was sensitive and it could have been avoided. But the centre forced the situation. The High Commission in Dhaka is bearing the brunt for the folly of the two big leaders. Indian foreign ministry has to pay for it even after the new government is formed in Bangladesh. (IPA Service)

The article Jamaat-e-Islami Forges Ahead Bridging Gap With Dominant BNP Before Bangladesh Polls appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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By Nitya Chakraborty

For the two main contenders in the coming assembly elections in West Bengal in March/ April 2026, every week is important in the present electoral battle as fresh developments take place needing for a relook at the poll strategy. The ruling Trinamool Congress led by the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the state BJP which is strategically led by the Home Minister Amit Shah are in a protracted battle in outdoing each other in perspective planning for the crucial polling days.

Early this month, the political drama over the raid by the central agency ED on the offices of I-Pac, TMC’s political consultant from 2019 and the Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s obstruction to that in person and taking the files herself from the raided office, is a major fresh development which is going to have its big impact on the coming polls. The petitions filed by both sides have been heard by the Supreme Court bench and the next hearing is scheduled for February 3. The observations of the apex court judges were not favourable to the CM. The Court felt that ED should not be prevented from doing its job and the CM did not act properly. The notices were issued. It seems that the hearing will continue for some more days and then the order will be given.

As things stand now, the assembly elections are due in West Bengal in the first half of April. That was the indication given by Amit Shah at the end of his visit to Kolkata in December end. The Election Commission is expected to issue its notification for polls in March first half. That way, if the ED case prolongs for two more hearings, it is possible for the Supreme Court to issue verdict before the poll notification. If the verdict is not favourable to CM, the issue is what will be the nature of stricture? It can be strict warning or if the documents prove that I Pac was involved in money laundering, the CM may face harsher action.

But there is a catch. While the centre and the BJP will make all efforts to see that the case is disposed of early and the order is given before the poll notification, the TMC with its battery of eminent lawyers will try to ensure that the case prolongs and even if the case hearings end, the verdict is reserved till the elections are over. This is a sensible plea, If the judges feel that the order should not be used to influence the outcome of the polls, they can very well reserve the order and announce it after the polls are over. Constitutionally, this will be proper, the judges may agree to it. But if they come to the opinion that the evidences are of serious nature, the bench may very well announce the order before the notification.

So for BJP, the hope is now for a verdict which goes against Mamata and they are desperate to ensure that the Supreme Court bench announces that soon after the hearings are concluded. The BJP poll strategy is being reoriented in the light of this new development based on what Amit Shah formulated for them in the December end meeting. Home Minister and the experts were optimistic about the success of BJP in unseating Mamata government in 2026 polls in West Bengal on the basis of their own expert studies which showed that a five per cent switch from TMC votes to BJP would be adequate to defeat the TMC government.

The calculation goes this way. In 2021 assembly elections, BJP got 77 seats out of the total 294. But in78 seats, BJP lost to TMC by a margin of less than ten per cent. So, if there is a switch of five per cent votes from TMC to BJP, that helps BJP in getting 78 seats more. This makes the total of BJP seats in new assembly to 155 as against the required majority figure

But how to bring about that 5 per cent shift in the next two and half months before the polling? BJP’s analysis is that the Hindu votes are consolidating more in the rural and semi urban areas. The support will be more in the coming elections. Then, the SIR process is expected to weed out 1 to 2 per cent of the voters of the Trinamool vote bank. Then there will be division in the Muslim vote bank of TMC as a result of the presence of AIMIM in a big way and the active work of the expelled TMC MLA Humayun Kabir in the Muslim dominated constituencies. As per this understanding, the poll results in Bihar and Maharashtra have shown how AIMIM has won seats hurting the Congress and RJD. This phenomenon will be evident in Bengal in 2026 polls damaging severely the Muslim vote bank of TMC.

All these trends have the potential to lead to a switch over of 3 to 4 per cent of the votes from TMC to BJP. And with this, if the Supreme Court verdict goes against Mamata and I-Pac, that will help further erosion of TMC power base. The state BJP leaders are hoping for some action against I-Pac supremo Pratik Jain. If he is arrested, that will be a big setback for the immaculate poll planning of TMC for which Pratik Jain is known. In fact, the BJP high command’s objective is to deactivate I-Pac before the polls. The central agencies might try to do so after the Supreme Court order if that turns favourable to them

All these dreams of BJP will go haywire if the Supreme Court bench gets evidence regarding ED’s political motives as alleged by Mamata and no trace of any evidence connecting I Pac to money laundering is found. TMC has counter plan to meet any eventuality. Further in the last two years since the2024 elections, the BJP lost all assembly by polls and the voting percentage went down substantially. So the ground situation must change in a big way in BJP’s favour to bring about the shift the BJP is dreaming.

Nearly two and half months before the polls, the situation is Bengal is really explosive as both TMC and the state BJP aided by their high command led by the Home Minister is bent on taking every possible measure to win 2026 polls in Bengal. After the win in Bihar assembly polls and convincing victory in Maharashtra local polls, the BJP and its central backers are not ready to lose Bengal again. For Mamata, the 2026 battle has emerged far more challenging compared to 2021 assembly polls. (IPA Service)

The article Supreme Court Decision On Mamata’s Action During ED Raid Will Impact Bengal Polls appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

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By Nitya Chakraborty

2025 was the year of the maverick U.S. President Donald Trump. The developments during the year beginning January 20 evolved around Trump. He was the key decision-maker, irrespective of what other countries leaders felt. He cared little for the United Nations, WTO, WHO and all other multilateral bodies. He openly said ‘I am the law”.

The New Year 2026 began with Trump’s invasion of Venezuela on January 3 and kidnapping of President Nicholas Maduro. This was followed by his open declaration to take over Greenland irrespective of what the European nations say. Trump has thrown a challenge to EU and European members of NATO. So far, his unvanquished spree is continuing in the global diplomacy. But can the U.S. President continue his free run in 2026 also till December. The answer is emphatic No. 2026 is not going to be the year of Trump again. It will be the year of China led by its President Xi Jinping.

Trump has been loud all through, he exaggerates his every action and projects it as a victory of the USA as a part of his MAGA programme. But in effect, he has undercut the support base of USA around the world including the G-7. In 2025, President Xi Jinping silently carried out his programme to spread China’s influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America taking advantage of their disgruntlement with Trump’s unilateral tariff hikes and his coercive methods in concluding trade deals. China is getting dividends from Trump’s actions. This process intensifies in the coming months of 2026 ending with major political crisis for Trump after the November midterm elections.

Three factors have given a big lead to China vis a vis USA in the first month of 2026 itself. On Friday China concluded a trade deal with Canada in the presence of Prime Minister Mark Carney in Beijing which the commentators of the western media including New York Times have termed historic. At a time, when Trump is yet to sign a trade deal with its leading trade partner Canada, China clinched this deal setting the process of strategic relationship with a G7 country, the neighbouring country of USA which so long distanced itself from cordial trade relations with China.

Carney’s visit is the first time in nearly a decade that a Canadian prime minister has been welcomed in Beijing. It comes after years of a deep freeze in the relationship between Ottawa and Beijing that Carney wants to thaw, in order to reduce his country’s precarious reliance on the United States. Carney told the newsmen that both China and Canada are working for a New World Order implying that the old order has collapsed due to Trump’s actions and New Order has to be established. China is talking of this New World Order as against the Order imposed by Trump. So, Canada, the G-7 member and the neighbor of USA is now a part of the New Order of China.

Just as Carney was heading to Beijing, the US president, Donald Trump, was telling reporters the US doesn’t need Canadian products. The comment highlights the pressure that Carney is under to diversify his country’s exports away from the US. Canada sends about 70% of its exports to USA. But later Trump again commented Let them make the deal. US needs Canadian products, the only thing that it will be on the terms of Trump.

Interestingly, Chinese media is explaining the Canada-China trade agreement as the necessary correction of earlier wrongdoing. China does not want to put it as a sort of victory against the USA. The fact is that President Trump is scheduled to Visit China in April this year to finalise the trade deal. Both Trump and Xi have big stakes in this deal. They cannot do anything to delay or subvert the process. So China is putting its trade deal with Canada as a significant trade deal and this should be the norm for bilateral relations not the methods applied by Donald Trump.

While, the Canada-China trade deal has given a big boost to the global diplomacy of President Xi Jinping, the latest publication of trade data showing US$ 1.2 trillion trade surplus at the end of 2025 by China has made it clear that the US sanctions and tariff rate hikes have not impacted significantly China’s global exports. China has the capacity to sustain its economy even with more sanctions and tariff hikes by USA. The latest trade surplus of China is now under discussion among Trump advisers and commerce ministry officials. The assessment will be taken into account while adopting the strategy in April summit on trade deal.

The third significant factor is the latest study by the Times Higher Education according to which Chinese Universities have surged in global rankings surpassing the U.S. universities in 2025. Out of top ten, seven are Chinese Universities. The speed with which the Chinese Universities have been doing high tech research work has alarmed the US policy makers. In the area of AI, the Chinese institutions and companies are investing less while getting more results compared to the high level of investment by the U.S. in AI providing not enough dividends. This has led to a fear in US markets that if the huge investments in AI do not produce results by 2027, there will be a backlash in the stock market like the dotcom bust by the end of the last century.

All these three factors have weakened US bargaining power under Donald Trump to take on the Chinese President Xi Jinping. If in November this year, the Republicans lose heavily giving control of Congress and senate to the Democrats, Trump will be politically hamstrung for the next two years rill November 2028. President Xi will have ample scope to score more advances during this period before Trump’s tenure expires. To quote the renowned writer Amitav Ghosh “Against becomes most dangerous when it is about to fall. This is what we are seeing in the case of Trump”. We have to wait for November this year for this. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The annual summit of World Economic Forum began in the Alpine hills of Davos in Switzerland on January 19 with the European leaders and the businessmen rattled over the confrontationist approach taken by the U.S. President Donald Trump on Greenland annexation. After imposing 10 per cent tariff on the EU countries taking position against Trump, the President now has threatened to hike this to 25 per cent.

Trump will be addressing the Davos meet on January 21 on the third day of the five day summit. He is attending the meet heading the U.S. delegation which is so far the largest consisting of all the key secretaries including Marco Rubio, Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent. The WEF is generally dominated by the European CEOs. They are apprehensive that the U.S. President will use the Davos meet to take forward the confrontation with Europe further adding to disruption in global business and collaboration. The U.S. delegation consists of all big American CEOs including some of the CEO’s of Indian origin like Satya Nadella.

The theme of the Davos meet is “A spirit of Dialogue” but the main speaker on whom everyone at the summit is looking at- Donald Trump is the very enemy of this spirit which he has shown in his actions in the last one year of his second term. In 2025, Trump addressed the Davos meet virtually three days after his inauguration by declaring war against Europe by asking the NATO member countries to hike their defence spending by minimum 2 per cent of their budgets and warning that the US will not subsidise the expenditure on security for Europe any more.

It was the beginning and in the last one year, the Greenland issue has emerged as the one in which Trump has challenged the honour and sovereignty of a NATO member nation. The EU members have to take a position at the Davos meet after Trump comes up with something more damaging to the honour of the EU nations. Ukrainian President Zelensky is attending the Davos meet. On the Ukraine peace formula, Zelensky has just been blamed by Trump for slow progress and his lack of intention in stopping the war while the EU members have been supporting Zelensky extending assistance to his war efforts. The dividing line between the U.S. and the Europe has widened too far and it may widen further after Trump’s Davos address on Wednesday.

The WEF has chosen the theme Spirit of Dialogue but the business leaders on their own have little confidence in this Spirit. A large number of business leaders who were asked about their preferred theme for the future opted for geo economic confrontation not the Dialogue which is the official theme. This means that the real issues belong to this domain as to how to wriggle out from this geo political hostile environment and adopt policy measures for global economic stability.

The confrontation is not just economic and political which takes place a number of times. But in 2026, there are apprehensions of a military confrontation between USA and Europe over Greenland. EU nations have asked for mobilization of their troops along the Denmark border. This is just a warning. But Trump has gone berserk. Though the EU nations are trying their best to avoid any military confrontation with the U.S., it all depends on Trump. Trump has said that he will only decide whether the option is war or not.

NATO chief Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be attending. Much depends on their expertise in negotiating with Trump and the U.S. delegates at the session. At the NATO leaders meeting last year, Rutte tried his best to appease Trump, but it seems that NATO has not got the results the leaders wanted. French President Macron and the German Chancellor Frederic Merz will be the main European leaders to talk to Trump if the U.S. President gives them time. It is a pathetic situation for the European nations. Their status lies in tatters at the hands of Trump.

Another toothless international figure who will be attending is the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The UN has been converted into a talking shop. Nobody cares for it, not even the developing countries of Global South. Trump has just marginalized the 80 year old UN and floated his own world charter challenging the UN. His composition of Gaza Peace Board and the accompanying directions are nothing but the beginning of Trump’s own United Nations.

In such a global turmoil what is India’s position regarding the Davos summit.? Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not attending but his ministers are the part of the big Indian delegation. Chief ministers like Devendra Fadnavis, C Chandrababu Naidu and Revanth Reddy are attending, Many state governments are showcasing their investment potential. Most of the big industry people are attending. CII is the partner of this WEF Davos meet since its inception.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharief is attending with a big delegation. This will give Pakistan a big diplomatic advantage as against India. Sharief will be meeting a number of heads of countries and explain Pakistan’s stand vis a vis its dispute with India. India’s position will remain unrepresented. The industry delegation of India can not do the political job which Sharief can do. So that way, New Delhi has to be alert and vigilant. The Indian diplomats based in Geneva can do a follow up job to neutralize Pak propaganda.

For now, all the global attention is on Trump’s January 21 address at the WEF. It will be seen whether that is given in the spirit of dialogue or that imparts further edge to confrontation in Europe. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The Washington talks for discussing the future of Greenland failed on Wednesday with the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland returning back home with the message from White House that Greenland rightfully belongs to USA and Trump will be deciding on the timing of its takeover. The U.S. does not care for EU or European troops in NATO. The EU leaders, after getting such a slap from their big brother U.S. did some sabre rattling on Thursday by asking the troops of the member countries to be alert and vigilant along Greenland and cooperate with the latest exercises of the Danish troops termed Operation Arctic Endurance.

All these are nothing but optics. Trump also knows how far the EU leaders can go. French President Macron always has talked big by declaring that Greenland cannot be taken over by the U.S., Denmark is a member of the EU and NATO, this country will be defended if there is any U.S. invasion. But French officials are talking behind the scenes to work out any formula which gives additional rights to the U.S. on Greenland excepting formal take over

Soon after the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the capture of President Nicholas Maduro, the EU nations were not that opposed to the action, only they had some reservations about the manner of Trump’s action. But on Greenland, , the EU leaders of six European powers – France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and the UK – issued a rare joint statement, reaffirming their support for Danish sovereignty and, in effect, warning Trump to keep his hands off Greenland. Greenland belongs to its people, they said: “It is for Denmark and Greenland and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.

Greenland has been a semiautonomous territory since 1979, but as part of Denmark, it is defended by NATO. As the leader of NATO, certainly U.S. has some rights about ensuring the security of its troops if there is a threat from Russia or China. But the fact is that during the earlier years, the cold war treaties between Denmark and the USA for the joint defence of Greenland were in effect, the US could do that but instead, the earlier US regimes shut down 16 of the 17 military bases thinking that there was no need for stationing so many U.S. troops around Greenland. The earlier regimes felt there was no security threat from Russia and China.

The fact is that this latest move was Trump’s own bid to expand the U.S. empire in view of the island’s positioning in the Arctic Sea and the potential of the development of huge natural resources for which Russia and China are also in the fray. Both Russia and China have denied any security threat to NATO and that their patrolling in the zone is taking place as per agreement and maritime laws and there is no issue of threat to the Greenland or the stationed NATO forces. But still Trump is using this security threat excuse to take over Greenland.

Trump’s proposed actions to take over Greenland have got the support of his MAGA base as this may not involve the deployment of land troops, just coercion may get the result. But the Democrats are up in arms, they have moved among the congressmen to move a motion opposing Trump’s move. The EU leaders have talked to many Democratic Party members. Democrats say that Trump may leave after two years, but the cracks that have appeared in NATO and the expanding schism between the U.S. and its European allies have affected the mutual relations. This should not be allowed to continue.

The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Trump twice in recent days as a deal maker on behalf of European nations. British foreign secretary is talking to the US secretary of state Marco Rubio but the diplomatic sources opine that the White House officials also are clueless. They have to depend on the thinking of Trump and its change in every hour. As a result, firm official contribution to the impasse cannot take place. All the decisions of The White House are taken by Trump himself and most of the times, the officials come to know through Trump’s social media platform only.

The European capitals, especially the EU headquarter Brussels are carrying on extensive discussions on finding out a formula to appease Trump while saving the face of the EU. It is clear to the EU that Trump is on a prowl of Greenland. He cannot be stopped but he has to be offered something tangible which will massage his ego. Starmer has instructed his foreign secretary to work on that. French officials are also doing the same. Everybody knows that EU cannot confront the U.S if Trump forces the situation in Greenland. So any alternative avoiding direct fight with the U.S. is better for the European nations.

But there are other voices in Europe favouring strong action by the European countries against the US if Trump opts for forcible occupation. For instance, Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Centre in Brussels, said that Europe could, if it stuck together, show Trump that his dog-eat-dog coercion comes at a cost. He said that Europe must make “not symbolic gestures, but measures that resonate domestically in the US and hurt Trump and his policy choices where it matters most: with his political base. Trade, market access, regulatory cooperation and industrial partnerships all provide leverage.”

For Paris-based columnist Alexander Hurst, Europe’s best course of action is to force “a rupture” with the US, including telling the US to leave its European military bases. “Everything short of actual combat should be considered,” Hurst wrote, “because ‘annexing Greenland’ is a symptom of American fascism, and others will follow.” All these ideas are meant for TV viewers having little impact on the EU policy makers in the governments.

Greenland is the world’s largest island and an autonomous Danish dependent territory with self-government and its own parliament. Though a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe – in particular the two colonial powers, Norway and Denmark – since the 9th Century. Denmark contributes two-thirds of Greenland’s budget revenue, the rest coming mainly from fishing. Potential oil, gas and rare earth mineral reserves have attracted prospecting firms.

The US has long seen Greenland as strategically important and established a radar base at Thule during the Cold War. With the melting of the ice around Greenland, the possibility of new trade routes opening has increased the Arctic’s importance.

Greenland has a population of around 57,000 in an area of 2.1 million sq. km area. Trump recently offered US$ 1 lakh to every citizen if Greenland to support the move of U.S. take over. He is talking of huge investments in Greenland to make the island richer. So, that at way at the individual level also, the US is working for takeover. For Europe, the battle is extremely difficult. It will be clear soon whether the European nations who boast of a great civilization, are able to retain their self respect in the current protracted battle over Greenland with their big brother U.S. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick’s stunning podcast on Thursday claiming that the bilateral India-US trade deal was almost ready but was not signed as Prime Minister did not call the U.S. President Donald Trump as was expected by the Americans. This lack of proper gesture on the part of the Indian PM sealed the fate of the early conclusion of the deal. India has missed the train, Lutnick said. Indian foreign ministry however refuted the U.S. claim but the reaction was of I general nature saying India look forward to concluding the deal.

Lutnick is the all powerful trade secretary of the Trump administration. Through him, the U.S. President pushes all the trade deals through carrot and stick policy. He himself told the New York Times in his latest interview he is the law, he takes decisions on the basis of his own moral compass, he has not to bother about international laws. So Lutnick might have said what Trump felt. Trump wanted Narendra Modi surrendering to him with folded hands for concluding the deal. Modi, for his own political reasons, rightly did not do so as desired by his one time good friend Trump. So Modi has to pay and in the process India as a nation.

Lutnick has said India has missed the train, but the fact is that nobody misses the train whatever the U.S. President has in mind. Trump likes power and at the same time, he is vulnerable to the showing of power by the other side. Just see how the powerful U.S. President has changed his stance towards the Columbian President Gustavo Petro in 48 hours after Petro, the leftwing President of a tiny Latin American nation challenged Trump and told him to take on him. Earlier Trump said that Petro is a sick man and he will not rule long. But after this challenge of Petro, Trump changed his tune and asked Petro to talk to him in the White House and sort out the issues.

Similarly, Trump gave threat to Brazil and Mexican Presidents after they strongly came out against his invasion of Venezuela. The tone was highly aggressive immediately after January 3 kidnapping of Maduro, but the tone changed within four five days as Brazil and Mexico stuck to their respective stands and started negotiations with other Latin American nations for a joint stand. Trump coerced his allies including Japan, Britain and EU to adopt a trade deal favourable to the US. The leaders of these nations compromised and agreed to Trump’s diktat. Trump was happy at that time, though now, on Greenland issue, he has taken again aggressive position saying Greenland belongs to U.S. He does not care for what decision NATO takes.

Within the framework of this global scenario, India right now is the country with the largest population of 1.4 billion plus in the world and the fifth largest economy with the possibility of becoming third by 2028. India is the only major country, a known friend of the USA with Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, not agreeing to the diktat of the U.S. trade officials in the course of negotiations for allowing free access to the US businessmen in the Indian markets of agri products and dairy. In the last stage, Indian officials gave new concessions but on these two, they stuck rightly. The U.S. has not signed the deal, so what? Earlier also, at global level including the trade relations with the USA, there have been many such crises. India under Indira Gandhi faced a critical situation in trade relations during the era of Richard Nixon after the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. In 2008, after the financial meltdown, the US markets collapsed in many sectors. Dr. Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister. India dealt admirably with that crisis keeping the head of the country high.

Now, under Narendra Modi, this stalemate in India- US trade deal is continuing since April last year after Trump announced the tariff hike unilaterally and later in August announced a penalty of another 25 per cent making the tariff a total of 50 per cent. Now Trump has again given sanction to a bill recommending 500 per cent tariff for buying Russian oil which will effect India and China to some extent. Already India has reduced its supplies from Russia. This Bill will face stiff opposition in the congress. Trump is supposed to meet the Chinese President in Beijing in April this year to finalise the trade deal. The Bill is just Trump’s way of hard bargaining with China. This Bill may really not come into effect.

But looking at the Indian economy as a whole, the scenario is not all that bad. In 2025-26, the GDP growth rate is estimated at 7.4 per cent the highest among the developing countries. China is expected to have a growth rate of 4.5 to 4.6 per cent during 2025. In 2026, all projections made by the IMF and UN put the GDP growth rate of India at 6.6 to 6.7 per cent, quite comfortable. The exports might be affected in the current year but the shortfall will be manageable. The diversification process is currently on and it will have impact in the next financial year even if the U.S. tariff hike continues.

As my colleague, Dr. Nilanjan Banik explained in his column earlier , the impact of US tariffs is more likely to fall on labour-intensive sectors like gems and jewellery, textiles, food and agriculture, and footwear – most of which are run by small and micro enterprises. The good news is that the contribution of these sectors, except for gems and jewellery, to US’ total imports from India is relatively small. An estimated US$48.2 billion out of US$86.5 billion in total merchandise exports from India to the US will be subjected to 50% tariffs, translating to 1.5% of India’s GDP.

Therefore, from a policy perspective, there is a necessity to help these small and micro industries operating in the affected sectors. A 50% increase, when combined with existing base rates, fundamentally alters competitive dynamics. These small companies face unique challenges that larger corporations can more easily navigate through their superior access to capital.

Unlike large multinational corporations that can establish manufacturing bases in third countries or absorb temporary losses, smaller exporters lack such flexibility. For instance, large Indian firms in the textile, and gems and jewellery sectors are already shifting production to countries such as Ethiopia, Oman, Dubai, Bangladesh, and Vietnam—countries with lower exposure to Trump’s tariffs—a strategy that cash-strapped smaller firms cannot pursue.

A temporary subsidy programme, coupled with concessional lending arrangements where the government provides interest rate support, would create a crucial bridge during periods of trade uncertainty for the micro and small sectors.

Another initiative could focus on helping smaller exporters develop and promote their brands effectively. Branding support helps smaller companies establish distinct market identities that can command premium pricing, partially offsetting tariff disadvantages. Export-compliance assistance ensures that technical barriers do not compound tariff-related challenges, while logistics support can reduce overall cost structures. Other government initiative such as rationalisation of GST, faster refund mechanisms, and reduced compliance burdens can significantly improve the overall competitiveness of Indian exports.

Indian policy makers have adequate expertise to work on a diversification strategy for the coming period in the wake of this U.S. tariff uncertainty. This mentality of putting all eggs in one US basket has to be given up. China, Russia, Japan, the African and Latin American countries markets have to be explored to ensure that if needed, India can take care of the loss in U.S. market through new opportunities. The US importers will approach India on their own if our products remain competitive.

At the political level, Trump will be increasingly vulnerable in the coming months. At the Republican Party meeting in Washington early this week, he virtually begged to the Republicans to do well in November midterm polls. He said if the Democrats take over power, I will be impeached. Trump is really worried. So Prime Minister Modi should not rush to appease Trump. India needs US trade deal but that cannot be imposed on us- that will be on the basis of negotiations between two sovereign nations.

If Trump agrees to that, that is fine. If not and if the maverick President sticks to his present course, India should wait for the appropriate occasion for concluding the deal. There should be no hurry. In any case, Trump will not be there after his term expires in 2028. India can take care of that period if Narendra Modi sticks to retain the dignity of the nation. India is too powerful a democracy to be browbeaten by any super power. That message Narendra Modi has to convey to his one time friend Donald Trump. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

West Bengal is going to the state assembly polls in March-April 2026. The election fever has soared high with the visits of the BJP leaders Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Home Minister Amit Shah to the state which is being ruled by the Trinamool Congress led by the chief minister Mamata Banerjee who has emerged through her actions as a national opposition leader to confront the BJP Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the last two days, the political tensions in Bengal involving the BJP and the ruling TMC reached new high as Mamata Banerjee intervened during the searches made by the ED at the offices and premises of TMC’s political consultant I-Pac. She went to the premises during the search operations and took away a number of files alleging that ED was taking away the files containing the poll preparation information of TMC. ED on the other hand alleged that this had nothing to do with that, their officials were looking at the documents in an old ED case relating to money laundering. Both sides have gone to the Kolkata High Court and the hearing is on involving the centre and the state government.

Whatever be the Court decision, the moot issue is that the BJP is desperate to capture power in Bengal through 2026 polls. For the BJP high command, it is now or never. The BJP high command is doing everything possible under the leadership of Amit Shah to ensure defeat of the TMC in the coming polls. So far, the BJP has won all the recent assembly elections including Bihar few weeks back. Soon after the convincing Bihar victory, the BJP leaders said that the next is Bengal. The BJP tide will overflow the shores of Bengal this time, the BJP high command said.

Within this bitter tussle between the ruling TMC and the opposition BJP in Bengal, the political tragedy is that there is a total polarization between these two parties keeping little scope for a third force. The binary of the TMC and the BJP is too entrenched in the state’s politics. The Left Front led by the CPI(M) has turned into a bystander watching from the sidelines with no power to intervene in changing the course of polity in Bengal. The CPI(M) which ruled Bengal from 1977 till the 2011 state assembly elections, has no seat in the assembly. In the last five years, the CPI(M) launched a lot of movements including the latest Save Bengal movement last month, but the leaders themselves are not seeing any sign of turn around. The same is the status of the Congress in the state which is fighting a battle for saving its existence from being completely swallowed at the base level by Trinamool.

There are only two and half months before the starting of the polling process in the state. The Left Front is discussing about poll alliance among its constituents who are fringe parties at the moment. There is a possibility of an understanding with the Congress but the state Congress is still looking at the high command for the final decision. The Congress high command is too busy with Maharashtra elections right now. They are not giving any attention. The Left knowing that it is not in a position to challenge the TMC and the BJP on its own, is waiting for the Congress. The 294 seats are for grabs in the assembly. The question is not how many seats, the Left will win but in how many seats, the polling deposits can be saved.

If we take a look at the assembly wise position, we will see that in 2021 elections, the Left got zero seat while in 2024 elections, the Left got winning votes in two assembly constituencies. The ground reality is that the CPI(M) or any other Left party on its own can rarely manage 15 per cent of the votes in majority of the constituencies. But with the Congress support, there is a possibility of winning in a few constituencies. For instance, the Congress got winning margin in twelve assembly constituencies in 2024 Lok Sabha elections as against Left’s only two.

This proves two things. First, the CPI(M)’s loss of support base has been across all sections of population in the Last ten years since 2016 assembly elections. In 2016, the BJP got 3 seats while the Congress got 44 and the Left 32. These 32 seats came down to zero in 2021 assembly elections and in the2026 elections, the Left on its own has hardly any seat where it can confidently say that it can win by getting 40 per cent of the cast votes.

The Bengal CPI(M) leaders must have made their own appraisal. But the big difference between the Kerala and Bengal CPI(M) leaderships is that even if the LDF led by CPI(M) loses in Kerala in 2026 assembly elections, the organizational base remains intact with small erosion. The basic support base of Kerala Left remains-workers, peasants, students, unorganized workers, women. The Congress must have improved its base in the recent months but the Left is equally placed to come to power challenging the Congress in future elections in Kerala.

The situation is completely different in Bengal. The earlier base of the Left, especially the CPI(M) among the workers, women, unorganized sections and even in lower middle class has been hijacked by the TMC under Mamata Banerjee. The CITU has lost influence among the trade unions. In rural areas, the popular schemes of the TMC government among women and students have been widely popular. There are widespread corruption involving TMC cadres, but the benefits are reaching people. This is evident from any visit to the rural areas which show significant improvement in roads and other essential services.

Interestingly, Mamata Banerjee is among the very few state Opposition leaders who have been able to buck the double engine government trend in the recent Assembly elections winning 29 of the 42 parliamentary seats in the state in 2024, leaving the BJP far behind at just 12. Marching ahead of Narendra Modi in a general election is no small feat, especially when confronted by another Opposition alliance – the Left Front and Congress together. And women have been the backbone of her support system. Consider the 2024 CSDS–Lokniti post-poll survey data: A majority of women – 53% – voted for Mamata, a comprehensive lead over the BJP, which managed 33% of the women votes while the Left got just 5 per cent.

The state CPI(M) leadership at the moment lacks adequate full timers at the district level. The old leaders of the CPI(M) who were prominent during 34 years of the LF rule, are mostly not active. Many of them have become too old, many CPI(M) members got involved in government contractor jobs during LF rule and due to security reasons shifted to the TMC. Some others became inactive. The CPI(M) therefore is facing a serious cadre crisis in the districts. Due to lack of funds, more whole timers can not be appointed by the Party. On the other hand, both TMC and BJP are flush with funds, the cadres are taken care of. There is a rush of young people to join TMC and the BJP. The young hope to get good money making opportunities by joining TMC due to complete domination by the party at all levels panchayats, municipalities and the state government agencies. It is extremely difficult for the CPI(M) and the Left to combat the TMC and the BJP in rural constituencies with such big disadvantages.

The CPI(M) has been isolated from the Muslim community. The minorities are having insecurity problems due to resurgence of BJP and Hindutva in rural areas. They look for protection, The ruling TMC only can protect them. In 2021 assembly elections, the TMC got major part of the Muslim votes sidelining the Congress which was earlier the party getting Muslim support in Bengal. Further, CPI(M) at ground level is making a mistake, especially in rural areas by projecting TMC and the BJP two sides of the same coin. This did not click in the earlier polls, this is not going to work in 2026 polls also.

The CPI(M) has to use the 2026 assembly polls as the testing ground for the coming 2029 Lok Sabha polls and the next assembly polls in 2031. The CPI(M) at the lower level has to be with the people taking up the urgent issues including the corruption of the TMC leaders. The Party leaders have to increase the number of whole timers raising their wages. This is the third decade of 21st century. The old ideals of sacrifice by cadres won’t work. The minimum needs of the whole timers have to be met.

The Left has to be with the people on every issue adversely affecting them. Only through some hard work in the coming days, the Left can get good dividends from the lapses of TMC government and the leadership. Only through patient work and closeness with the working people, the Left including the CPI(M) can get back a part of its lost base. The 2026 polls campaign has to be seen with that broad vision without nursing any hopes for immediate success. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The two and half day visit by the union home minister Amit Shah to Kolkata during 2025 year end to explain to the West Bengal party leaders his new strategy to take on the ruling Trinamool Congress in the assembly elections scheduled in March-April 2026, has given a boost to the state BJP in imparting a big push to their campaign to finally dislodge the TMC from power in the 2026 polls. TMC led by the chief minister Mamata Banerjee is in power since 2011 elections and is now bidding for the fourth time to retain power.

BJP sources say that the meeting and the directions given by the chief BJP poll strategist focused on the immediate tasks for the BJP leaders and the cadres. The elaboration on the ground situation was made constituency wise and the new factors were mentioned which would help the BJP in combating the TMC in the marginal constituencies numbering between 50 and 60 out of the total of 294 constituencies in the state assembly.

The experts associated with the BJP high command mentioned two major factors favourable to the BJP this time. First, the deletion of a large number of voters in the electoral rolls as a result of the current SIR. The experts feel that this deletion has led to the ousting of a large number of ghost voters whose votes TMC used to use in the last two polls. Second, the BJP high command was of the view that like other parts of India, there has been an increasing Hindu consolidation in Bengal also. Even a five per cent switch of Hindu votes from TMC to BJP in 2026 polls, will make a big difference in results.

Based on these two advantages, the high command and strategist Amit Shah asked the BJP leaders to make a foolproof polling booth management on the election day so that the TMC is deprived of their earlier attempts to add to their votes in the last two hours through ghost voters. The BJP high command has assured the state BJP of all assistance in terms of deploying full RSS strength and adequate financial assistance. The high command has mentioned about the Bihar model and how many parts of this model which led to BJP victory in the recent Bihar assembly polls, can be replicated in Bengal.

BJP has divided Bengal into five zones and deployed party general secretaries in each of the zones. In the Kolkata metropolitan area and in South 24 Parganas, the party has appointed Himachal Pradesh’s organizational secretary M. Siddharthan. He will be assisted by the senior leader C T Ravi in Kolkata. In the Howrah, Hooghly and Medinipur region, Delhi’s organizational secretary Pawan Rana will be in charge while the BJP senior leader of Haryana Sanjay Bhatia will assist him. Many more state and union ministers will be associated with the state BJP’s electioneering in Bengal.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is arriving in Bengal for poll campaign on January 18 in Singur, Hooghly which came to prominence in 2007-08 when the TMC led movement drove out the Tatas from this place where the company had proposed to set up a car factory. That TMC movement in fact led the TMC to drive out the CPI(M) led Left Front Government from power in West Bengal in 2011 assembly elections after an interrupted rule of 34 years. PM has chosen Singur for his party rally because the BJP wants to project the CM Mamata Banerjee as an enemy of industry. For the last eighteen years, Singur remains desolate with no hope of any industry being set up.

Right now, both the TMC and the BJP have been campaigning in a big way expecting that the poll dates will be announced in February after the final role electoral rolls under SIR are published in the middle of February. The assembly elections are expected in Bengal in three phases and should be over by April 14, the Bengali new year, first of Baisakh. Amit Shah told the BJP leaders before leaving Kolkata to be prepared for BJP government after this election.

This comment of the home minister may be for encouraging the state leaders as both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah know that taking on the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is a Herculean task. They tried this in 2021 assembly polls but instead of 200 seats, projected by Shah and Modi, BJP got only 77. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the TMC increased its seats by eleven while the BJP seats came down from 18 to 12. In all the last assembly by polls, the BJP lost to the TMC.. Further due to defections, the BJP strength in the assembly has come down from 77 to now 65 following defections And by poll defeats.

Then why the BJP high command, especially Amit Shah and PM Modi are expressing so much confidence before the assembly elections. There are some reasons. As explained before about the two new factors, an analysis of the performance of BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha polls show that the BJP was in winning position in 88 constituencies out of the total of 294. This was eleven more than 77 won by the BJP in 2021 assembly polls. Now if as a result of some shift of new Hindu votes to BJP takes place along with the TMC not having much success in casting false votes, the number may rise. The extent will solely depend on the BJP organizational machinery on the polling day which as of now is much weaker compared to TMC.

While the BJP is working on the basis of this new found enthusiasm, the TMC leadership is aware of all the plans of the Home Minister. Mamata is a better strategist compared to Amit Shah. So is the second in command of TMC Lok Sabha leader Abhishek Banerjee. Mamata has uncanny power to gauge the pulse of the voters. She is constantly touring the districts and appealing directly to the women. She has nurtured her support base of women, Muslims and the unorganized workers. This base is not being impacted much. The fact is that even if there is a shift in middle and lower middle class Hindu males towards BJP, that is not impacting the women.

The Bengali wives of both Hindus and Muslims are still stuck to Mamata and the voting pattern of their husbands is not influencing them. Mamata has given the rural women a sense of empowerment and they are proud of that. This I saw in my own eyes during my recent travel to Bengal’s district when a young wife of a shopkeeper in Hooghly district told me in front of her husband, a BJP supporter that all her friends would vote for Mamata, irrespective of what their husbands do. Many recent studies carried out show that Mamata has got unstinted support from the women in Bengal whatever might be the views of the women about the TMC government. Mamata is a phenomenon. No political leader can ignore the charisma of Mamata Banerjee.

BJP knows that they have no leader who can match the popular appeal of Mamata Banerjee. Before last assembly polls, the party tried to rope in former cricket captain Sourav Ganguly. Amit Shah went to his house for dinner and there was talk of a deal. But finally Sourav Ganguly backtracked. He refused to join BJP. From then, the search continues but there is no one in sight. TMC’s another advantage is having Abhishek as their leader. Abhishek is a great organizer. He has big ideas. He is a big asset to the TMC organization. He happened to be the nephew of the CM but he is leading the TMC on the basis of his own performance. The TMC workers at ground level love him.

This Mamata-Abhishek combination along with the consultant I-PAC is deadly. TMC is well prepared to meet the onslaught of Modi-Shah duo. The task for TMC is tougher for 2026 assembly polls after convincing wins by the BJP in all the recent state assembly polls. But Mamata hopes to score more goals this time. The question is the margin. For that, Bengal has to wait till the end of polls and the announcement of the results. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

India’s isolation from Global South on the issue of Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is now complete. Prime Minister Narendra Modi claims himself as the leader of Global South. Both at the SCO summit and BRICS meeting last year, Modi was active in articulating the aspirations and the programmes of the developing and poor nations.

The US imposition of double tariff on India in 2025 had created a situation of rift between Trump and Modi. But all those are gone now as the Indian Prime Minister is desperate to keep the U.S. President in good humour for clinching the trade deal with the USA at the earliest. In order to appease Trump, India has remained silent on the U.S. invasion of Venezuela while the other BRICS members, as also the vast majority of Global South have unequivocally come out against the naked imperialism of the U.S. President. Even the allies of U.S. including Britain and France have questioned the manner of Trump’s action but the so called leader of the Global South still remains silent.

India is hosting the next BRICS Summit in September this year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the host. PM has already taken over the Presidency of BRICS on January 1. About 100 meetings are planned to be held during the year focusing on cooperation and collaboration between the Global South and advancing the common causes in the international forum.

Right now, out of the original five members, excepting India, four others China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil have come out openly against the U.S. aggression. Venezuela is a Latin American nation and belongs to Global South. It is the duty of the BRICS to defend the Global South country. All other members have come out defending the sovereignty of Venezuela excepting India which will be hosting the BRICS summit in 2026.

Prime Minister as the current President of BRICS has to lead the Global South in defending its member against the invasion by a super power. But the BRICS President has not said anything on U.S. role. What impression it is giving to the Global South and other BRICS members? Narendra Modi has once again sullied the image of India which rose a bit after his actions at the SCO and BRICS summits in 2025. This degradation of Indian diplomacy will have its adverse impact at the coming 18th BRICS Summit.

What is the situation worldwide on this issue of U.S. invasion of Venezuela? The US has faced widespread condemnation for a “crime of aggression” in Venezuela at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Brazil, China, Colombia, Cuba, Eritrea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Spain were among countries that on Monday denounced Donald Trump’s decision to launch deadly strikes on Venezuela and kidnap its leader, Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the US.

“The bombings on Venezuelan territory and the capture of its president cross an unacceptable line,” Sérgio França Danese, the Brazilian ambassador to the UN, told the meeting. “These acts constitute a very serious affront to the sovereignty of Venezuela and set an extremely dangerous precedent for the entire international community.”

Trump’s UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, defended the attack as a legitimate “law enforcement” action to execute long-standing criminal indictments against an “illegitimate” leader, not an act of war.

The meeting in New York was convened just hours before Maduro was due to appear before a federal judge in Manhattan on charges including “narco-terrorism” conspiracy, cocaine importation and weapons trafficking – allegations he has long denied.

Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned that the capture of Maduro risked intensifying instability in Venezuela and across the region. He questioned whether the operation respected the rules of international law.

“I am deeply concerned about the possible intensification of instability in the country, the potential impact on the region, and the precedent it may set for how relations between and among states are conducted,” Guterres said in a statement delivered to the council by UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo.

He urged Venezuelan actors to engage in “inclusive and democratic dialogue” and offered UN support for a peaceful way forward.

Russia and China, both permanent Security Council members, were less restrained and called on the US to immediately release Maduro and Flores. Vasily Nebenzya, Moscow’s ambassador, described the intervention as “a turn back to the era of lawlessness” and urged the 15-member council to reject the methods of US military foreign policy.

Nebenzya, whose country is currently under US sanctions following its illegal invasion of Ukraine, added: “We cannot allow the United States to proclaim itself as some kind of a supreme judge, which alone bears the right to invade any country, to label culprits, to hand down and to enforce punishments irrespective of notions of international law, sovereignty and non-intervention.”

China’s representative, Fu Cong, echoed the charge, saying the US had “wantonly trampled upon Venezuela’s sovereignty” and violated the principle of sovereign equality. “No country can act as the world’s police.”

China demanded that the US “change its course, cease its bullying and coercive practices”, and “return to the path of political solutions through dialogue and negotiations”.

The Cuban ambassador, Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, told the meeting: “The US military attack against Venezuela has no justification whatsoever… This is an imperialist and fascist aggression with objectives of domination.”

The security council meeting also heard from Venezuela’s ambassador Samuel Moncada, who described the US action as an “illegitimate armed attack lacking any legal justification” that included “the kidnapping of the constitutional president of the republic, Nicolás Maduro Moros and the first lady Cilia Flores.”

The Security Council meeting could not come out with any resolution condemning the U.S. invasion as the veto power, but the mood was clear , all the members had reservations on the US action. It was the violation of UN charter and all international laws. BRICS members were more aggressive in their condemnation of US action but the European members and US allies also conveyed their unhappiness at the nature of intervention and kidnapping. The US action involved a far bigger moral issue for the international community.

Thus it is pathetic to see India tragically failing that moral compass under the leadership of present Prime Minister. The great nation of Buddha and Gandhi is surrendering to a new emperor of 21st century Donald Trump by doing away with all the great legacy which the Indian foreign policy carried through the decades till 2014. India, the cradle of an ancient civilization inculcating high principles of democracy and governance, looks belittled in the eyes of the Global South. The loss is irreparable unless the Prime minister makes immediate amends. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The invasion of Venezuela by the United States on the early hours of January 3 along with the kidnapping of President Nicholas Maduro and his wife marks a new phase in Donald Trump’s foreign policy which has been termed by The Guardian columnist as “naked imperialism”. The announcement by Trump that the U.S. would now oversee the administration of the Latin American nation and take care of its oil installations reveal candidly how the business and imperial interests merged in the U.S. President’s implementation of Donroe doctrine, an updated version of the earlier Monroe Doctrine.

But the latest reports from both the U.S. and Caracas are not indicating that Trump is having a smooth sailing in his operations. The vice President under President Maduro Delcy Rodriguez who is now interim President, is under seize by the US. Initially she came out with a strong statement declaring Maduro as her President, but the latest on Monday was that she issued an appeal to the US seeking collaboration on the basis of an agenda within the framework of international law. She however still stuck to the sovereignty of Venezuela against US invasion. Now coming days will show whether Rodriguez will succumb to the U.S. pressure or she will stick to her independent position.

Apart from this, the US expected chaos and uprising by the anti-Maduro supporters in Caracas after the invasion, but that has not taken place. Even the army and other defence forces have been supporting the government as of now. The Venezuelans are shocked but they are not welcoming the American invasion. Another aspect is that the opposition leader Machado who got the Nobel Peace prize last year is not being backed by Trump in the new situation since the President started disliking her after she was given the Noble Prize depriving him. Trump is looking for someone from Maduro government as a replacement, but so far, he has found none.

In the last three days since invasion, the US cities including New York and Washington are witnessing huge protests against America’s military intervention in Venezuela in the manner another President George Bush intervened in Iraq in the early part of this century on the basis of fake allegations against the then President of Iraq. The same scenario has been repeated in the beginning of 2026 by Trump who only last month announced the new US national security strategy giving powers to the American agencies to work for regime change in the Latin American nations.

The United Nations Security Council is meeting on January 5. The meeting may not produce any result as U.S. will use its veto power to oppose any resolution condemning its invasion. But at least the other nations including France and Britain will be expressing their worries and anxiety at the dangerous direction of the unilateralism of Trump. The EU nations cannot strongly oppose the US action but they are extremely worried as in Europe Trump may target Greenland for acquisition. Already Trump aides have announced that Denmark has no right to retain Greenland which belongs to the US .Denmark Prime Minister has come out strongly against this move of Trump aides. Denmark is a member of EU but any occupation of Greenland will be a slap in the face of European Union proving to the world that the EU nations are a bunch of toothless powers with no capacity to confront their big brother.

In New York, the most important development is strong protest by the new socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani who called Trump and told him this was an act of war. The New York police administration is under Mamdani. President Maduro will be put to trial in a New York court and big demonstrations by the opposition parties and peace groups are expected in New York during trial. It will be of political interest how Mamdani tackles the situation when his friends of anti war movement take to the streets in New York during trial.

For Latin America, the Venezuela invasion by US has polarized the region. In 2025, there was a right wing swing in Latin America during elections. All the countries with right wing governments are happy at the invasion. These countries include Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia and even the President elect of Chile who is a trump acolyte. Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua along with a few other small nations have still left wing regimes. They are under tremendous pressure. They are talking of having joint front to deal with the new situation. The Left president of Columbia Gustavo Petro condemned the invasion but Trump hit back at him saying Columbia is ruled by a sick man and he is producing and selling cocaine. He will not last long. He even threatened to attack Columbia. So he is acting like a Rambo as far as Latin America is concerned.

If Trump fails in his objective of capturing Venezuela and takeover of its oil industry, that will be a major setback for him in his political career in 2026. In 2025, he was dominating the global politics in his own manner. Trump was everywhere. But from the beginning of 2026, this action on Venezuela may not achieve the desired results. If the confrontation prolongs, it will have impact on Trump’s MAGA base whose programme is that US should not be involved in any war. So far the US has not sent land troops. The Venezuela operation has been done with air force strength. Many Republican Congressmen are bitter that Trump did not seek any approval from the Congress. The top leaders of GoP were not even apprised.

As far as Democrats are concerned, the entire Democratic Party is now united in opposing Trump on this action. The Democratic Socialists led by Bernie Sanders, Mamdani, Pramila Jaipaul, Saikat Chakraborty, are in the campaign to expose Trump. There has been massive response to their call in the last three days. Already in the recent by elections, Democrats have fared well at the cost of sitting Republicans. The Democrats have now got momentum. They will continue it till November 2026 midterm. If the Democrats succeed and get majority in both the Congress and Senate, that will be a big boost for them for the 2028 Presidential elections.

The midterm results will not have any impact on Trump Presidency. He will remain till his term expires in 2028, but it will have adverse effect on his standing as a leader and acceptability. That might restrain Trump to some extent. At the other end, Trump, knowing that this is his last term, might use the next two years after midterm to act more unilaterally without caring for any international norm. That will be a more dangerous period for geopolitics at global level Next few months will show how the situation develops in Latin America. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

In the neighbouring Bangladesh, the political developments take unpredictable course many times, but the latest alliance between the NCP, the party of the students body which led the July Revolution and the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami, has shocked the progressive forces who supported the uprising that led to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina led Awami League government on August5, 2024.

The national elections are due on February 12 this year and the nomination process will be over by January 21. So in the next few days, intense negotiations will be held between the two contradictory combinations for finalizing candidates for the 300 seats of the Bangladesh Parliament. The alliance is still under fire from a section of secular minded activists of NCP. This has resulted in lot of resignations, but the core NCP leadership is going ahead with the sharing of seats with Jamaat.

BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia’s death on December 31 after ailing for long has led to sympathy wave among the common Bangladeshi citizens spreading across party affiliations. This was evident at the massive turn out of people at the funeral and the way the entire country grieved on her passing away at a time, people were talking of the return of the BNP to power after February 12 polls with Khaleda Zia as Prime Minister again.

Khaleda’s son Tarique Rahman, is now the chairman of the BNP and he is the Prime Minister face of BNP which is planning to submit nominations to its candidates to more than 90 per cent of the seats leaving a few seats to its allies including independents. Many NCP leaders who are dissatisfied with alliance with Jamaat have approached the BNP leadership for tickets. Tarique will be taking final decision on that. He himself has filed nomination from three constituencies.

As on January 1, the opinion polls and surveys have placed BNP in a dominant position followed by Jamaat. In earlier polls, the NCP got around 6 to 8 per cent. That was why the NCP lobbied with Jamaat for alliance as the combination of the two can pose some challenge to the BNP supremacy. But the political analysts in Dhaka point out this Jamaat-NCP alliance may fail as the NCP supporters may not vote for Jamaat candidates and the Jamaat supporters are certainly not voting for the NCP candidates. The two parties are so different in their approaches that for the commoners outside political affiliations, this alliance is a big opportunist combination.

The NCP leaders who are in favour of alliance say that this alliance is based only to fight February 12 polls to take on BNP, the NCP has not diluted its programme, it sticks to its July Charter and will pursue that after the polls are over. That NCP is not getting approval of the people despite its great role in the movement to oust the Hasina government, is known to its leadership. If it fights alone, it will be decimated, so it has aligned with the Jamaat to get respectable number of seats, but in the process, the Party has turned itself into a partner with a Party which has a big role in fanning communal tensions against the minorities in Bangladesh. Only anti-India approach has united both, otherwise, they have nothing in common. NCP students in fact gave protection to minorities when they were attacked by Jamaat supporters in the beginning after the fall of the Hasina government.

In fact, just not for Bangladesh, for South Asia also, the disorientation of the students movement which led to the founding of the National Citizen Party (NCP) in February 2025, is a another case of lost path of the youth movement in a country in this sub continent.NCP announced a transformative programme at its founding conference and it aspired to emerge as a progressive alternative in the religion infested politics of Bangladesh after Hasina’s ouster. The NCP offered ample rhetoric about administrative reforms, anti corruption and transparency in the functioning of the government

Many left leaning elements are still a part of the NCP though some of them have left in the recent weeks. But for those who really look for an alternative, the present NCP has shattered their dreams by aligning with Jamaat without making all efforts to publicise its own programme based on July charter to the people and seek votes for them on that basis. For the people who were looking for a real alternative in Bangladesh, there is nothing to look for. The politics will go back to the old conservative traditional parties after the February 12 polls.

Bangladesh’s leading English daily Daily Star candidly says “So, what exactly does this alliance say to the voters who believed in NCP’s promise of “new politics”? For one, it suggests that ideological clarity was always negotiable. If the initial attraction to NCP for many was its youthful energy and commitment to break with the past, those qualities now look to be filtered through the very traditional political calculus it once critiqued. The youthful supporters it once courted are now left with a choice between cynicism and disillusionment, watching as the party they backed moves into a coalition with a group whose historical baggage remains contentious.

This alliance is not merely an electoral arrangement. It is symbolic. It tells voters that electoral arithmetic matters more than narrative coherence. That might make sense to party strategists upset with internal dissent and resignations, but it does not necessarily translate into fresh trust on the ground.”

NCP’s leaders, understandably, are saying that coalition building is part and parcel of democratic politics. They say that in a fragmented landscape, working with like-minded forces is pragmatic. They stress that the pact is strictly for electoral purposes. Indeed, an NCP statement insisted it joined the alliance only because it “cannot contest the election alone” under current conditions.

NCP is hoping that it will again regain its earlier glory after the elections since the traditional parties coming to power will not have the right vision to build a new Bangladesh. This win seems farfetched as the trends show. For Bangladesh politics, it is a big tragedy and for this, NCP’s top leadership has to own responsibility. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The political developments in Bangladesh including violence against any one opposing the fundamentalists are having dangerous consequences for India involving the security and geopolitical stability in the sub continent. According to this writer who has been following the churnings in the newly liberated nation since 1971, the outlook for India in terms of its relationship with its neighbour has never been so grimmer. India has been put in a situation now when the centre can watch the evolving developments in Bangladesh as an outsider with hardly any effective tools to influence the situation.

Why the developments in the last three days have more dangerous implications for India than any time during the last 53 years?. First India has no friend now in Bangladesh politics with whom they can have relations. The Awami League leaders are in jail or hiding. The grass roots workers are organizing sudden meetings, but then disappearing fearing backlash. A virulent anti-India section of the NCP is the main instigator of violence against Awami League, the Indian consulates and even the democratic minded BNP leaders.

Soon after Osman Hadi, a prominent leader of July 2024 movement’s death reached Dhaka from Singapore early this week, the worst type of propaganda against Awami League leaders, Indian government agencies, as also anyone who talked of restoring calm were attacked in the Facebook. pages of the NCP and Jamaat. The activists threatened many BNP nominees not to submit papers to the Election officials. A reign of terror is prevailing while the nomination process is going on. One BNP leader’s family house was burnt and his youngest daughter was killed and three others sustained burn injuries.

The problem is that the law and order machinery is under threat from both NCP and Jamaat activists. This has led to a dangerous situation during the nomination process. The entire process will be over by January 21 and from January 22, the notified candidates will be starting their campaign for the polling to be held on February 12. The nomination process can never be normal unless the interim government administration headed by Dr. Muhammad Yunus conducts impartially by restoring law and order and ensuring that those taking law in their hands, will not be spared.

The entire Dhaka media knows that this is not happening. Dr. Yunus also is playing a game and he is backing his favourite NCP contestants as also those in Jamaat who are close to him. For his own reasons, Dr. Yunus is maintaining a political distance from the BNP, though the BNP is expected to emerge as the single largest party as per the opinion polls. BNP chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia is critically ill in Dhaka. Her son Tarique Rahman is expected to arrive in Dhaka on December 25 and it is likely that he will stay back till the elections are over and give leadership to the BNP campaign in the absence of his mother.

Apart from virulent anti-India campaign and doing everything to destroy the legacy of the 1971 liberation struggle, the fundamentalist demonstrators are now targeting the cultural organisations and the artistes who are known for their faith in democracy and secular ideals. In 1971, just before the surrender of the Pakistan army on December 16, the rajakars carried out the killings of a large number of intellectuals of then East Bengal. This time, the killings have not taken place, but the fringe elements attacked and burnt the offices and full complex of two leading cultural groups of Dhaka Chayanaut and Udichi who have been active in the cultural arena of Bangladesh since its beginning. These two groups consist of the icons of the cultural world of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Udichi Shilpigoshthi took to the streets of the Dhaka on Saturday morning staging a protest march and rally to condemn the arson attack on its central office—an assault that, the organisation says, has wiped out 55 years of cultural archives and struck at the heart of the country’s progressive movement.

The procession began at 11:00 am from Paltan intersection and moved steadily toward Satyen Sen Chattar, in front of Udichi’s central office opposite the National Press Club. Artists, cultural workers, journalists, and supporters joined the march, holding placards and chanting slogans that linked the attack on Udichi to a broader threat against freedom of expression.

Slogans such as “Udichi Te Hamla Keno, Jobab Chai,” “Muktijuddher Chetona Hariye Jete Dibo Na,” and “Baul-er Upor Hamla Rukhte Hobe” echoed through the streets, framing the arson not as an isolated crime but as part of a sustained assault on the ideals of 1971 and the spirit of cultural resistance. Amit Ranjan Dey, general secretary of Udichi said that there are not random acts. These represent a deliberate threat to freedom of expression and democratic rights.

On Thursday, the fundamentalists burnt the offices of media group publishing Daily Star and Pratham Alo, the most popular Bengali daily in Bangladesh. The offices were burning for three hours and despite repeated calls, the police and fire brigade came only after after the hooligans left. The media people said that the extremists gave threats to the media group but still the administration did not take action. A recent Swedish think tank study has said that in Bangladesh, 80 per cent of the journalists feel threat to their security under the present Yunus regime.

So what can India do at this moment? The election process has begun. In a recent interview, Sheikh Hasina’s son Joy Wajed has said that the February 12 elections are illegal without the participation of Awami League. At this stage, India may not be able to do anything on that. But what certainly, India can do is to impress on the western governments, especially the USA to ensure that the elections are held in a transparent manner and the parties get a level playing field. The western nations are monitoring but they have little stake in Bangladesh polls. They are all busy with Ukraine war. So it is in India’s immediate interest to organize global opinion in favour of holding polls on February 12 in a peaceful fair manner. The holding of elections in Bangladesh on February 12 should be of big interest to India irrespective of nature of formation. If the uncertainty prolongs in the neighbouring country, that will endanger India’s security further. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Something incredible is happening in Beijing as also in other cities of China in the last five days. The cinema halls showing the American animation film “Zootopia 2” produced by the famous Disney studio are full and the Chinese cine lovers who have not yet seen the film are going mad online to get the tickets for the next shows. Even the Chinese official media Global Times sees this Chinese response to a good US film claiming that China’s massive entertainment market can determine the fate of any foreign film.

The wide reception to this animation film has led to a new type of discussion among the young Chinese film goers that more and more US films should be opened in the Chinese cinema halls and that will help the US to bring down the trade deficit through more income in the services sector. The huge box office success of this American film is being seen in the context of the protracted trade battle between USA and China and how, more cooperation in entertainment area, especially in films can help in bringing down the trade deficit on a long term basis.

The American animated film Zootopia 2 in China has drawn widespread attention from US media. Disney reported that Zootopia 2 set a new record for the highest animated opening of all time for a non-local title in China and broke the overall box office record for non-local animated films of all time within just five days of its release. Many US media outlets have noted that of the film’s $1 billion in global box office revenue to date, nearly half has come from the Chinese market. Some film distributors remarked with amazement: “China is not only a boost to the box office, it can even determine whether a blockbuster is profitable or loss-making.”

According to the Chinese official media, the success of Zootopia 2 presents a timely opportunity to take stock of the broader “big picture” of China-US economic and trade ties. Walt Disney, the production company behind Zootopia 2, is the world’s largest media and entertainment conglomerate. Its theme parks contribute more than $60 billion annually to the US economy and support over 400,000 jobs.

Chinese officials say that box office receipts in the Chinese mainland from Zootopia 2 far exceeded those in the North American market, “reversing the old pattern in which Hollywood blockbusters have treated North America as the absolute core,” and underscoring that tapping into the vast potential of the Chinese market is crucial to their future global strategies. Nowadays, more than 70 co-branded partnerships are tied to Zootopia 2 in the Chinese mainland, online and offline interactive experiences together have built a complete film IP industry chain. The success of Zootopia 2 is bound to generate significant spillover effects and benefits for the cultural markets and related industries of both China and the US.

The way Chinese official media is showing frenzy over the success of Zootopia 2 has surprised the seasoned observers of Chinese political behaviour. Chinese governments have always been careful about allowing the US films of all hues to enter the Chinese market. There are still restrictions, but now, even the government people are talking about big expansion of the China-US relations in the entertainment sector and projecting it as an important step to balance the trade between the two countries. Chinese officials say now that the cross border circulation of films is, in essence a form of trade in services centred on creativity and quality. With a population of more than 1.4 billion. China’s vast market has a capacity to absorb high quality content from the USA since the Chinese public are more sophisticated now in their tastes and they look for more diverse offerings.

Interestingly, the Global Times editorial of December 17 makes a case for more American films entry into the vast Chinese market. The GT editorial says with over 90,000 screens nationwide, China’s film market offers enormous box office potential. Audiences are willing to support products that demonstrate strong quality, compelling storytelling, high production standards, and respect for local national cultures, providing a solid demand base for high-calibre international content to enter China. Building “small yard, high fences,” resorting to tariff coercion, and pursuing protectionist practices will only sap one’s own innovative drive and erode the competitiveness needed for long-term development.

As the official Chinese media sees it, the success of Zootopia 2 in China is one piece of the true picture of China-US economic and trade relations. US public discourse often trains the spotlight on China’s surplus in trade in goods with the US, while rarely mentioning the basic fact that the US is the largest source of China’s deficit in service trade, and that the overall gains from bilateral economic and trade exchanges are broadly balanced. China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial; there is no logic by which one side’s gain must mean the other’s “loss.” Zootopia 2 offers a vivid illustration of this reality. Through the laughter and shared emotional resonance brought by a single film, both sides can accumulate understanding and trust – and catch a glimpse of a more long-term future, the GT editorial says.

Chinese foreign trade officials mention that opening the Chinese market cannot be achieved through pressure or restrictions; it requires mutually beneficial cooperation. The most effective way to address structural imbalances is not to treat markets as battlegrounds, but to expand institutional openness and enhance the capacity to supply products and services. This would allow more high-quality US products and services to enter China’s ultra-large market, which features strong demand and diverse consumer needs.

This fresh approach being publicized in the recent days fits well with the latest trends in the discussions between the US and Chinese officials for the conclusion of a trade deal during the April 2026 visit of President Trump to China. Both the leaders will find out ways to balance the trade as the US President has always been resentful of the trade surplus enjoyed by China.

The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world; the status of their trade relationship has compounding implications for both countries and the global economy. Combined, their economies comprised 43 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) and nearly 48 percent of global manufacturing output in 2023, according to the World Bank.

China is also the third-largest export market for the United States, behind Canada and Mexico, with U.S. exports exceeding $195 billion in 2024. That year’s $295 billion U.S. trade deficit with China is the lowest since 2009, but it’s still the United States’ largest trade deficit with any country. As for imports, Chinese goods make up around 13.5 percent of the market, trailing just behind Mexico. Many of these imported goods are technologies such as computers, electric batteries, and video displays. China also has a substantial holding in U.S. treasury bonds—roughly $760 billion—making it the second-largest foreign creditor to the United States, after Japan.

The latest Chinese liberal attitude towards the entry of content driven US films to China has opened up a big possibility of intensive cooperation between the two largest economies of the world in a sector which is burgeoning at an astonishing rate. Certainly, the US is the leader of that sector. If China –US collaboration takes concrete shape during the coming visit of Donald Trump to China in April 2026, that will be a game changer in the evolving relationship between US and China. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Is Bangladesh’s pre-election scenario is being repeated in Nepal which was the seat of a two day revolt by Gen Z of the country against the ruling K S Oli government in the second week of September this year? Major indications are leading to that, the only difference is that the students protesters in Bangladesh have a nine month old party of their own , but in Kathmandu, the Gen Z leaders and their mentors are still talking without any formal party base to fight the polls.

More than three months after the September uprising in the 2.9 million nation, all the preparations for holding the elections on March 5 next year have been taken. The Election Commission has prepared a voters list of 19 million and 114 political parties have been registered eligible for contests. But finally, the established political parties which ruled the Himalayan nation for the last two decades are mattering in the coming elections, with no strong political combination coming out to challenge the old establishment on behalf of the revolting Gen Z youths who made a history in forcing the then Prime Minister K S Oli to resign following two days of massive protests.

Similarly in Bangladesh, the National Citizens Party(NCP), the party set up by the students demonstrators of July 2024 uprising is failing to make any impact in the current election campaign with the established parties like BNP and Jamaat e Islami dominating as the national elections scheduled on February 12 are approaching. In Nepal, Prime Minister Sushila Karki was chosen by the Gen Z demonstrators to take over as the interim Prime Minister just like Muhammad Yunus was chosen on August 8 2024 by the students demonstrators to act as chief adviser of the interim government in Bangladesh.

Now Nepal’s interim PM is herself a bit frustrated as she finds that the prospects of new faces entering in politics to fight corruption in the government, are bleak. She joined the PM with the hope that as a fighter against corruption all through her career in the Supreme Court of Nepal, she will leave her interim position after ensuring the coming of a corruption free administration, but in recent days, she has been losing hope about the emergence of a New Nepal based on transparency bereft of corruption. Recently she had a meeting with the Citizen Protection Campaign team to discuss corruption and activists demands before the coming national elections.

Talks were held for holding a referendum on some of the major issues relating to eradication of corruption and protection of rights. Karki is expected to take a decision soon on this referendum issue. If she endorses this, this will be again a repeat of what is happening in Bangladesh. On February 12, 2026, in Bangladesh, along with national elections polling, voting will be taking place on referendum also. In Nepal also, the voting on referendum may take place on March 5 itself, if PM Karki approves the referendum proposal.

Nepal’s present Parliament has 334 members-275 to the lower house and 59 members to the upper house. The coalition government is the trend in the country after democracy started functioning following the abolition of monarchy. In the 2022 elections, the Nepali Congress with 89 seats emerged as the largest party but the last ruling coalition was headed by the Prime Minister K S R Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal(Maoist Centre) backed by Nepali Congress and some other parties.. The CPN(UML) is another Communist Party which was the second largest party in the last elections. The schism among the communist parties contributed much to the political instability in Nepal.

As of now, the same parties have come out and campaigning. There are talks of alliance in the 2022 pattern but that has not yet been finalized. All the parties are having internal problems. Nepal Congress leadership is under fire by a number of senior leaders while K S Oli was asked to resign in the last convention but he managed to deal with the dissent and came out as the leader again. Overall, seven parties have national status and the coalition governments are moving around them.

Nearly a fifth of the approved parties are new, with several registered by young activists who played leading roles in the anti-corruption protests that rocked Nepal in September this year. But the [problem is that all these fringe parties have yet to set up organisations to take care of the election battle. There is no guarantee that these parties of the Gen Z activists will have alliance before the elections. The Gen Z talked of unemployment problem in a big way during September uprising, but as of now, they have failed to produce any foolproof plan to deal with the crisis. The World Bank’s latest figures paint a stark picture: 82 percent of Nepal’s workforce is employed informally, and the country’s GDP per capita stood at just $1,447 in 2024. For millions of Nepalis, these are not just statistics—they’re daily realities.

There is still time. It has to be seen whether the Gen Z leaders can work out any common minimum programme among their approved parties and rally their forces to fight the established political parties who have got well oiled poll machinery. Some senior leaders of the Citizen Council as also the Prime Minister Sushila Karki are interested in a composite formation of a group who will fight the March 5 elections on the basis of the demands raised during the September uprising. If that bid for unity succeeds, there is some possibility of a stiff competition from the Gen Z to the traditional political parties. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The results of the local polls in Kerala covering corporations, municipalities as also gram panchayats declared on Saturday December 13 are a firm indication of the massive erosion of the support base of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) headed by the CPI(M) in both rural and urban areas signalling all the possibility of a thumping majority by the winner United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress in the 2026 assembly polls due in March/April 2026.

The results underline the supremacy of the main opposition UDF throughout the state as also further breakthrough by the BJP led NDA in capturing new support base in the urban areas. For the LDF, especially its leader CPI(M), the results should act as a wakeup call. Still, three months are left, the LDF has to carry out deep introspection into the factors leading to the defeat of their candidates in their strongholds for taking corrective measures to salvage the situation before the assembly poll.

In Kerala politics, there have been instances when after a massive defeat, the LDF has bounced back. For example, in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the UDF got 19 seats and the LDF only one out of the total of 20 seats, but in 2021 assembly elections, the LDF bounced back to power for the second consecutive time with larger number of seats. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the same results were repeated with the UDF getting 19 seats, but in 2026 elections, it will be a Herculean task for the LDF to repeat a scenario like 2021 assembly polls.

The results so far reveal a disastrous position of the LDF compared to the 2020 polls. Figures show that out of the 6 corporations, the UDF got 4, LDF one and NDA the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. As regards municipalities, out of 87, UDF got 54, LDF 28 and NDA 2. Regarding gram panchayats, out of 941 seats, UDF got 494, LDF 348, NDA 25 and others 8. Only in district panchayats, out of 14, the UDF and the LDF had equal share with 7 seats each. The key takeaways are – the UDF has made major gains across all tiers, there has been a big surge of UDF in gram panchayats level compared to 2020 polls. This should be most worrying to the CPI(M) and the CPI because the LDF is hoping to retain its power on the basis of rural support. As regards the BJP, there has been a 50 per cent rise in gram panchayats. This should worry both LDF and UDF in the coming assembly polls.

An analysis of voting in gram panchayats shows that the UDF vote share has gone up by 4.9 per cent in 2025 polls as against 2020 polls while the LDF loss has been to the extent of 10.9 per cent. The BJP led NDA has shown a positive swing of 2.2 per cent. This 10.9 per cent loss in votes compared to the 2020 polls must be analysed candidly by the LDF leadership. The loss in urban areas was expected but this could have been made up by the LDF through retaining the base in the rural areas, but that has collapsed. This needs thorough appraisal. The damage management has to be done on a priority basis.

The district panchayats have always been under full domination of the LDF. But in the latest polls, the trends are there for a reversal of the process in favour of the UDF. In district panchayats, there has been a swing of 12.3 per cent in favour of UDF as against LDF’s loss of 8 per cent. This is not just the outcome of anti incumbency mood of the rural people, it has something to do with some structural change in the minds of the villagers. The LDF must be failing to meet the aspirations of the rural people of Kerala in the digital age of the 21st century.

Kerala is a high literate state with total digital literacy. The LDF has taken some pro-people measures which have been appreciated by the people. Still the fatigue of the rural electorate with the Left requires thorough political scrutiny. As of now, Kerala is the only state having a Left led government. If the LDF loses in Kerala in 2026 assembly polls, that will mean there will be no state government in the country after May 2026. West Bengal which the CPI(M) ruled for 34 years is already lost. In the present Bengal assembly, the CPI(M) has no member.. In Tripura assembly, CPI(M) has got members but the organization is not yet sufficiently equipped to get back power.

For that reason, it is of paramount importance for the leadership of the LDF, especially the CPI(M) and the CPI to start immediate corrective measures after proper assessment of the performance of the LDF candidates. This is the moment of truth for the two communist parties in Kerala, this is also the moment for the Indian Left as a whole to keep the Left flying in at least one state in the country as the ruling party. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The announcement by the Bangladesh Election Commission on the holding of general elections in Bangladesh on February 12 next year is a major development in the evolving politics of South Asia, especially with respect to India. The EC statement was welcomed by all the contesting political parties. The nomination process will be over by January 20 and from January 22, the election campaign will be starting ending on February 10, two days before the polling day February 12.

Significantly, the voters list consisting of 12.77 crore of Bangladeshi citizens has not created any big controversy as is happening in India now. The mainstream political parties like Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat E Islami and National Citizens Party (NCP) have been working on the finalisation of candidates for the 300 member national assembly. The NCP has been the first party to officially announce the names of some candidates.

The Awami League which ruled from 2009 to 2024 till the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5 last year, has been excluded from participation in the national elections on February 12. There has not been major protest demonstrations by the Awami League within the country after the election announcement by the EC but Sheikh Hasina herself came out with strong statement from her hideout in India terming the elections as illegal as well as the Election Commission as an illegal body. It is not clear as of now what will be the position of the large number of Awami League supporters on the polling day. Some recent opinion polls have put AL supporters at the level of 15 per cent much more than the NCP.

Apart from the national elections on February 12 to elect the new national assembly, the Bangladesh voters will also take part in the referendum on the July charter for the framing of a new constitution of the country. If the referendum is yes in favour of the charter, a new Constitution Reforms Council will be set up to frame the Constitution. A new Council will also be formed on the basis of the proportionality of the elected political parties.

It has to be recognized that the July Charter contains very ambitious objectives for setting up a value based transparent government and administration. The real test is whether the new political leadership will be able to implement the agenda in full spirit. The experience of political governance in Bangladesh since its formation in 1971 is that the ruling political parties fail to implement effectively a transparent governance. Despite a democratic agenda, the governing parties get steeped in corrupt practices and the common people’s interests are ignored. That has been the history of both Awami League and BNP regimes in the last five decades.

In the last sixteen months since the ousting of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina, there have been tumultuous changes in the positioning of the political parties in Bangladesh. The students body leading the anti-quota movement was the vanguard of the July movement leading to the fall of the Awami League government and the impression gained ground that this body which formed the political party National Citizens Party (NCP) in February this year, would be a leading force as a political party in the 2026 elections. But the developments in the last nine months since the founding of NCP show that NCP has failed to emerge as a viable political party in the minds of the electorate while Jamaat has made big inroads. In the recent elections to the students unions in the universities, students wing of Jamaat has swept defeating both BNP and the NCP bodies. In fact, NCP candidates were nowhere in the picture.

At the campaign level, NCP leaders are divided on the programme, though NCP is the first to announce the first list of candidates for the February 12 elections. BNP and Jamaat have already made big progress in choosing the candidates for their constituencies. Dhaka based observers believe that while BNP with its organizational spread and united leadership under Begum Zia, is set to occupy the leading position in the elections, Jamaat may emerge as the next party after BNP marginalizing NCP to a great extent. There are reports that some NCP leaders are trying for an understanding with BNP at individual level while a few others are working for understanding with Jamaat.

Jamaat in the electoral history of Bangladesh never got more than eight per cent of the votes though the party had a big nuisance value in creating disturbances for the ruling government. Now taking into account the possibility of coming near power, Jamaat e Islami leaders have sobered and projecting themselves as responsible leaders. Jamaat had understanding with BNP in earlier elections but this time, BNP is looking at Jamaat as a threat and refusing any truck with the party. BNP is confident of getting majority on its own in the absence of its traditional rival Awami League.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has introduced reforms to enhance participation and operational preparedness, including mechanisms for out-of-country voting. To strengthen election security, the Election Commission plans to integrate the armed forces into its election security framework. Despite these efforts, the pre-election environment remains fragile, with isolated but politically significant episodes of political violence, questions about the neutrality of local officials, and lingering distrust of security forces.

With roughly two months remaining until the February 12 polls, the Election Commission has emerged as both a key institutional actor and a flashpoint for partisan criticism. The proposed Representation of the People (Amendment) Ordinance 2025 (RPO) includes significant changes aimed at enhancing transparency and rebuilding voter confidence. The revised RPO raises campaign spending limits, reintroduces the “No Vote” option, and empowers the Election Commission to annul constituency results in cases of irregularities. Following months of public consultation, the Election Commission also cancelled the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the upcoming election, citing operational challenges and concerns over credibility. It further ruled that alliance candidates must contest using their parent party’s electoral symbol, rejecting proposals to permit joint symbols for coalitions.

From all the reports of EC’s preparedness, there is reason to believe that the Election Commission really wants to hold a free and fair elections in Bangladesh. That will be a great victory for democracy in Bangladesh. In South Asia, democracy is in trial in a large number of countries including India. In Nepal, general elections are due in March5 next year after the downfall of the K S Oli government in October this year. In Nepal also, the Gen Z demonstrators who toppled the Oli government are working hard to setup a political party to fight the conventional political parties in March polls. In Pakistan, the Election Commission is under scrutiny and many political observers pointed out the partial attitude of the Commission towards the ruling parties as against the opposition party of Imran Khan. In Sri Lanka, the new Left government is functioning well up to now with no major protest relating to stifling of the democratic process.

For India, the political outlook is not that rosy whoever wins the February 12 polls in Bangladesh. BNP is sceptic of the Narendra Modi government but among the main three parties, BNP is the only party which can be trusted in terms of working for normal diplomacy. Jamaat and NCP are out and out anti-Indian parties. But Sheikh Hasina’s staying in India and her political activities are still sore points with the BNP. New Delhi has little option but to start a fresh phase of negotiations with the new political rulers in Bangladesh after the polls are over and a new government is formed.. No sensible political leader of Bangladesh heading the new government can ignore the role of India. India has the advantage but the Indian leaders have to approach Bangladesh with a much more friendly face based on the ground reality of the political situation in the neighbouring country. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

For rich European nations, especially the troika Germany, France and Britain, the geopolitical situation that is unfolding in the year 2026 has enough elements of an existential crisis as a result of the announcement of the US policy on global security which marginalizes the role of European nations and NATO in the overall understanding of the Trump.2 administration.

Three developments relating to the US understanding of global scenario unfolded in the last seven days indicating that Trump administration is gradually withdrawing its commitments to Europe signalling the end of the post second world war arrangement that has been continuing for the last eight decades since the end of the Second World War in 1945. These three included Trump’s interview to the prestigious magazine Politico released on December 9, the US Security Policy in Perspective released by the state department on December 4 and third was the unofficial interview given by Pentagon to Reuter. All three made clear that the Trump.2 administration has initiated vigorous steps to delink USA from Europe in terms of its dependence on security.

The most important part of the Trump interview to Politico was that Donald Trump hinted he could walk away from supporting Ukraine as he stepped up on his administration’s recent criticism of Europe, describing it as “weak” and “decaying” and claiming that Ukraine could not win the war against Russia with just Europe’s support. It was apparent that Trump was angry that on December 8, the three leaders of Germany, France and Britain talked to President Zelenskyy and assured him all support to continue the war ignoring the peace plan of Trump. To spite that view of the European tricks, the Trump interview was released the next day in which Trump asked President Zelenskyy to accept the peace plan arguing that Moscow retained the upper hand and Zelenskyy must play the ball as per US wishes and not dictated by the Europeans.

Trump said “If it keeps going the way it’s going, Europe will not be … in my opinion … many of those countries will not be viable countries any longer. Their immigration policy is a disaster. What they’re doing with immigration is a disaster. We had a disaster coming, but I was able to stop it.” The tirade against the European nations on the peace formula to end the Ukraine war, was total. It was apparent that the U.S. President was losing his patience in dealing with the obstructionist policies of the European nations which depend on the US for assistance in both economic and military areas.

While the latest interview to Politico dealt mainly on Trump’s distrust of his European allies relating to Ukraine peace plan, the US. Security paper released five days ago dealt on long term and fundamental issues regarding US relationship with Europe. Donald Trump’s administration has said Europe faces “civilisational erasure” within the next two decades as a result of migration and EU integration, arguing in the document that the US must “cultivate resistance” within the continent to “Europe’s current trajectory”.

Billed as “a roadmap to ensure America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history and the home of freedom on earth”, the US National Security Strategy makes explicit Washington’s support for Europe’s nationalist far-right parties. Already Trump is backing Far Right International body helping Reform UK of Farage in Britain, Le Pen’s party in France and AFD in Germany. But now through this document, the assistance to Far Right parties in Europe has been made as a part of US government strategy.

The document, with a signed introduction by Trump, says Europe is in economic decline but its “real problems are even deeper”, including “activities of the EU that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition … and loss of national identities”.

The 33-page exposition of Trump’s “America First” worldview appears to espouse the racist “great replacement” conspiracy theory, saying several countries risk becoming “majority non-European” and Europe faces “the real and stark prospect of civilisational erasure”. It adds: “Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognisable in 20 years or less.”

US policies must therefore include “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” as well as enabling Europe to “take primary responsibility for its own defence” and “opening European markets to US goods and services”.

As regards to the future of NATO, Pentagon unofficially told Reuter, that USA is readying for withdrawing most of its troops and weapons by the end of 2027. Europe has to fend for itself in protecting its own security. Pentagon also bemoans that despite warnings, the NATO member countries in general have not been taking the agreed steps to raise their defence expenditure. The US can not take additional responsibilities in NATO as it has been doing now.

In totality, all the three signify a definite trend of the US foreign and defence policy emerging in the New Year which calls for marginalization of both NATO and EDU in terms of their relationship with the USA. The issue has become more fundamental relating to the way some of the major issues including immigration and religious freedom are looked at by the developed countries. For Europe, the coming New Year will be a testing period for its alliance with the USA. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The India-Russia joint statement issued on December 5 after two days of talks between President Vladimir Putin and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is more a vindication of India’s renewed exercise of its geopolitical status defying the pressure from the USA and the other western powers rather than a document on expanding economic collaboration.

The timing of the visit and the consequent nature of ceremonial welcome to the President Putin in the Delhi airport tarmac on December 4 evening by the Indian PM defying the normal protocol have all the elements of a cautious but determined Narendra Modi to opt for an independent course in diplomacy giving no credence to the continuous warning by the western powers, especially the USA.

Just on the eve of the Putin visit to India beginning December 4, an unusual development took place on December 1 when three envoys of Germany, France and Britain based in New Delhi wrote jointly a piece in The Times of India highly critical of the Russian President and in fact wrote “ As President Putin stalls and delays on the serious peace talks, we will continue to step up our military and non-military support to Ukraine so that it can rightly defend its people, its land and its sovereignty”. The joint piece was nothing but a blatant interference by this European troika to put pressure on the Indian PM in his talks with President Putin.

To the great discomfiture of the European troika and Washington DC where the Trump officials were monitoring every posture of the Indian PM in his dealings with the Russian President, it was a great comfort for Indians to see our Prime Minister behaving with caution but dignity caring little for the western pressure to go slow with the Russians. The trade deal with the USA is at its last stage, the deal with the European Union is also pending ready for finalization in the next few months. Nothing worked for the West. Prime Minister talked to the Russian President with full confidence representing the leader of the 1.44 billion people, the largest populated country of the world with a robust economy to emerge as the third largest by 2027-28 after the United States and China.

That way, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit is more than a routine bilateral visit. It is a powerful signal from India of its own strength to assert its strategic autonomy in respect of the bigger global powers. The US does not respect India’s strategic autonomy. This has been repeatedly mentioned by the US secretary of state Marco Rubio in the context of sanctions against India. As regards Russia, this part of autonomy for India has been continuing since the days of Soviet Union. In the latest New Delhi summit both Narendra Modi and Putin underlined that aspect and that was a very positive aspect of the Indian diplomacy at this stage.

In the economy and trade sphere, President Putin’s assurance of uninterrupted oil supplies to India is a guarantee which can bolster India’s bargaining power with other exporters including the US which is putting pressure on India to import more oil products at the cost of Russian exports. Indian agencies have already reduced supplies from the Russian sources after the US sanctions. The private companies like Reliance may abide fully by the US sanctions but the Indian public sector companies have the flexibility of choice and that will be widened as a result of the Russian assurance. India has the option to choose its source of imports of oil, the basket will be larger.

As per the joint statement, the two leaders reaffirmed their shared ambition to expand bilateral trade in a balanced and sustainable manner, including by increasing India’s exports to Russia, strengthening industrial cooperation, forging new technological and investment partnerships, especially in advanced high-technology areas and finding new avenues and forms of cooperation.

Both leaders underlined the importance of an open, inclusive, transparent and non-discriminatory multilateral trade system with the World Trade Organization at its core. Both Sides emphasised that addressing tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, removing bottlenecks in logistics, promoting connectivity, ensuring smooth payment mechanisms, finding mutually acceptable solutions for issues of insurance and reinsurance and regular interaction between the businesses of the two countries are among the key elements for timely achievement of the revised bilateral trade target of USD 100 billion by 2030.

Further, Russia and India have agreed to continue jointly developing systems of bilateral settlements through use of the national currencies in order to ensure the uninterrupted maintenance of bilateral trade. Additionally, the Sides have agreed to continue their consultations on enabling the interoperability of the national payment systems, financial messaging systems, as well as central bank digital currency platforms.

The fact is that this target of reaching US$ 100 billion by2030 has been under discussion for long but the follow up measures as suggested earlier have not been taken due to a number of factors. The Indian focus during Modi regime was on the US market and US investments, the Russian market was ignored for long. That has to be corrected by both sides. The Delhi summit should act as a game changer in respect of assessing the importance of India-Russia relationship. Otherwise, the same stagnation in trade and investment will remain despite all the declarations and agreements.

For Indian Government, it is the time to strategically make optimum utilization of the gains of the visit in the coming talks with the United States and the European Union. China has already welcomed Modi’s talks with Putin. There can be a good possibility of India-China- Russia partnership emerging based on strategic autonomy for each. In sum, Indian diplomacy has a big opportunity to emerge stronger after the latest India-Russia summit and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with his enhanced status, has to see that these diplomatic gains are not frittered away again. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

What is happening to the INDIA Bloc which gave just a big jolt to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his NDA in 2024 Lok Sabha elections? The BJP for the first time since the taking over of Narendra Modi as PM failed to get majority and was forced to form a minority government with the support of other NDA partners, especially JD(U) and Telugu Desam. The INDIA Bloc was high in the post Lok Sabha polls period and the impression gained ground that the downslide of the BJP under Modi regime had begun.

After one and half years since the Lok Sabha results were out in June 2024, the political scenario in the country is now completely different. During this period, NDA led by the BJP won state assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and the latest BJP victory was in Bihar when the results were out on November 14 this year. It was a downslide of the INDIA Bloc and big upswing by the NDA led by the BJP. The major credit for the success in the series of the assembly elections in the last eighteen months has to be given to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Home Minister Amit Shah along with the RSS supremo Mohan Bhagwat. Bhagwat, who despite his continuing differences with the PM mobilized his RSS cadres in the poll campaign for the state polls in a much more organized manner compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Right now, the winter session of Parliament is on and both the houses are in doldrums with the opposition challenging the Election Commission decision on the implementation of Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in a hurry. In the next round of elections, four states Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are going to polls in April/May 2026. Out of these states, SIR implementation is not going to be taken up in Assam. Assam has been excluded from the revision process while the other states are undergoing the same. INDIA Bloc’s strong intervention in Parliament against the SIR is fine but that should not lead in any way to the softening of the efforts to make the state organization prepared for the 2026 state assembly elections.

For the INDIA Bloc, all priority should be focused on Assam which is ruled by the BJP led combination since 2016 and now for 2026 state elections, the BJP led NDA led by the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sharma has been making foolproof preparations to ensure another victory in the 2026 state polls. Assam has 126 seats in the assembly and a close look at the election figures of the 2021 assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections show that the vote percentage difference between the Congress and the BJP varied between one per cent to three per cent. The BJP extracted the victory due to its formation of a combination adding votes to the NDA in its marginal seats thereby leading to the defeat of the Congress and its allies.

In 2021 assembly elections, BJP got 33.6 per cent of the votes in Assam as against Congress’s 30 per cent. But the BJP’s seat tally was 60 as against only 29 by the Congress. The AIUDF which fought separately got 16 seats with 9.4 per cent of the votes. So if the Congress would have an understanding with the AIUDF which is primarily a party of the Bengali speaking Muslims, the Congress-AIUDF could have easily defeated the NDA. Similarly in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got 37.9 per cent votes, the Congress also got the same 37.9 per cent. But in the number of seats, the BJP got 9 seats while the Congress got 3 seats. Thus with the same percentage of votes, the Congress got one third of BJP seats.

Congress is the biggest party of the INDIA Bloc in Assam and the Party has functioned as a ruling Party for a long time. The last Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi was a popular CM . He knew the intricacies of retaining power. The Congress decline took place during Modi regime, but the Congress has still its traditional base among both Assamese Hindus and Muslims.. This time, the Congress has to make all efforts to mobilise the anti- BJP forces under the INDIA Bloc. If it is not possible, the Congress led front in the state can have electoral understanding in the designated marginal seats to ensure NDA defeat. Out of 126 seats in the assembly, there are around 30 such marginal seats and in most of these seats, AIUDF has presence.

During 2021 assembly elections, the Assam state Congress did not get due support from the central leadership of the Congress. Funds were also in short supply. The Congress high command has to take up the Assam assembly elections seriously as with vigorous efforts, the NDA government can be unseated in Assam in 2026 polls. But that needs intensive campaign by the Congress, the full mobilization of the opposition front of six parties led by the Congress and the adoption of an effective poll strategy that will help in preventing the division of anti-BJP votes. A strategic limited understanding with the AIUDF is essential for the Congress front to achieve victory, if it is serious about its objective of unseating BJP in 2026 assembly polls.

INDIA Bloc has to give some attention to the coming elections to the Mumbai Corporation expected in December end this year. After the disastrous results of the last assembly elections, fissures among the INDIA Bloc constituents have widened. Right now, the three constituents Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray, NCP of Sharad Pawar and the Congress are poles apart in framing a common strategy for Corporation elections. The outcome of this election is of strategic importance for the coming politics in Maharashtra. The results will have impact on the other elections in the coming months. If the BJP led NDA can win the elections, this will be another feather in the cap of the state BJP after assembly polls and their domination on state politics will increase marginalizing the INDIA Bloc constituents.

It is high time, the INDIA Bloc leaders talk at the central level about the situation in both Assam and Maharashtra and come out with some specific proposals to deal with the situation in the respective states. For INDIA Bloc, the elections in Assam and Mumbai Corporation are of crucial importance and it can be dealt only at the national level.

As regards Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the situation is already set, there is little scope for intervention by the INDIA Bloc. Kerala elections are limited to the Congress led UDF and the CPI(M) led LDF.BJP has marginal role. Whoever wins among the two alliances, belongs to the INDIA Bloc. Similarly in West Bengal, Trinamool Congress is the main opponent against the BJP. TMC under Mamata Banerjee is well prepared to take on BJP. In fact, BJP may lose its existing seats in 2026 polls. In Tamil Nadu also, the INDIA Bloc constituents are well settled under the leadership of DMK chief minister M K Stalin. The alliance is working perfectly well and is ready for 2026 polls. For these three states,INDIA Bloc centrally has nothing much to do. But for Assam and Mumbai Corporation, a lot needs to be done. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

2025 has been a golden year for the Chinese President Xi Jinping in global diplomacy. In the last ten months since taking over the U.S. presidency by Donald Trump on January 20 this year for the second non-consecutive term, Chinese supremo Xi Jinping is on the roll. At the Busan summit in October this year, Trump virtually gave Xi the equal status by calling the meeting G2. But in the next four weeks, Chinese muscle power in diplomacy vis a vis Trump was more visible during last Monday November 24’s 45 minute conversations where all through XI had the dominant voice and Trump only reacting.

This telephonic conversation was sudden. There was no inkling from the White House about such a possibility before. Who took the initiative first? The Chinese official media claimed immediately after the summit that Trump took the initiative while the Trump’s office gave this who first issue no importance by saying that the communication between the two leaders are most important and that took place successfully.

What exactly was discussed during the telephonic talks spanning 45 minutes? If the Chinese official media is to be believed, it was mostly Taiwan and the follow up of Busan consensus including the few measures on US-China trade deal which is expected to be concluded during the coming visit of Trump to China in April this year. Interestingly, Trump advisers as also Trump himself did not give importance to the Taiwan issue during the briefing in social media. The US President as usual was highly optimistic about his meeting with President Xi in China in April 2026 and President Xi’s visit to USA by the end of 2026. The next G20 meeting is scheduled in Florida in November 2026. So Trump must have hinted that President Xi will be attending that and they will have one on one meeting then. In fact, there is a possibility that after G20 meeting, President Xi may be on a state visit to USA.

Already, throughout US, Europe and Asia-Pacific, extensive discussions are taking place on the import of the Trump-Xi’s talks on the future of Taiwan and the security situation in Asia-Pacific, especially involving Japan. Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanao Takaichi is a diehard anti-China. Last week, Takaichi said that if China blockades Taiwan or seizes it, Japan will treat it as direct threat to its security. She also mentioned the US-Japan pact for mutual security. This was a major point during Xi’s talks with Trump and it was evident Xi wanted Trump to restrain Takaichi. That the impact was immediate and Trump took Xi’s objections seriously, was evident from the fact that on Tuesday Trump called Takaichi and had discussions on her comments about Taiwan. Though the White House did not comment on this telephonic discussions with Japanese PM, seasoned diplomats felt that Trump must have asked Takaichi not to make provocative comments which may cause problems in the process of improvement of US-China relations.

So why is Trump giving such a long rope to the Chinese President Xi Jinping, even on issues concerning Asia-Pacific? The plain answer is Trump wants desperately to conclude US-China trade pact during his April visit and during this six month period, he does not want anything that hampers the conclusion of the trade pace. Trump’s anxiety is mostly related to the Chinese export of rare earth minerals. At Busan meeting, an interim arrangement was agreed to by President Xi to allow export of precious rare earth minerals to US for just one year. Trump wants to make a long term arrangement. President Xi is skillfully using this advantage in putting pressure on Trump on Taiwan issue. This does not mean that China will immediately seize Taiwan as some Taiwan leaders are apprehending. Rather, it will be in China’s long term interests to make use of Taiwan threat to extract concessions from Trump in trade matters for the next three years of Trump tenure .

Notably, President Xi is mentioning of the second world war cooperation between China and the USA against Japan in defending his position on both Taiwan and Japan. As per Global Times, the official English daily of the Chinese Government, President Xi underscored in his meeting with Trump that Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the post second world war international order. GT reminds that the Cairo declaration stated in clear terms that all the territories Japan has stolen from China including Taiwan and the Penghu islands, should be restored to China. The Potsdam proclamation signed by China, USA, UK and the Soviet Union reaffirmed that the Cairo declaration shall be carried out and in September 1945, Japan signed the instrument of surrender pledging to faithfully fulfill the obligations laid down by Potsdam Declaration.

It was in this context that President Xi told Trump at the Monday meeting that by crossing the red line on Taiwan issue, Takaichi is openly challenging the post war international order established on the basis of Cairo proclamation and Potsdam declaration. According to GT sources, President mentioned that some of the Japanese government ministers believe that they have got backing from the US against their anti-China rantings, this should be countered. To appease Xi, Trump rang up the Japanese PM on Tuesday and conveyed his disapproval of the latest anti- China tirade by Takaichi. President Xi must be happy now as Trump acted soon after his complaint.

By now, it is clear that the US President has no long term stake to any of the US allies Taiwan or Japan. Right now, the priority is to pep up the economy and to ensure that no US soldier dies in any war abroad. This approach is on the lines of his MAGA supporters. Taiwan and Japan must have big reasons to be worried about their respective security. They can not expect President Trump to come to their rescue by angering President Xi at the moment. So they have to behave as per Trump’s advice for the next three years of Trump regime.

What about India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Indian diplomacy is in a big limbo. Though, there is some improvement in India’s bilateral relations with China after Modi-Xi summit in China during SCO meet, but as regards border, there is just stalemate. There is disengagement but China is in no mood to withdraw its troops from occupied territories. Now there is a renewed Chinese claim for the India’s bordering state Arunachal as a part of China.

This is not just mere propaganda by Chinese authorities. Chinese organisations have been treating this claim officially. The detention of an Indian origin person from Arunachal at Shanghai airport and harassing her for 18 hours was a testimony of the official Chinese attitude to the Arunachal state of India. All the Chinese foreign ministry maps show Arunachal, not a part of India. This pressure on India will continue even when the bilateral relations are improving in other areas.

India has to take this issue seriously with the Chinese government. The Chinese strategy is to improve relations in other areas with India, especially in trade but give no concessions in land areas under their occupation. Now Arunachal has emerged as another irritant in India-China relations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to deal with the Chinese political leadership bilaterally. The American President, the great friend Narendra Modi cultivated till the April tariff war started, will pay no heed to any plea for assistance from India. Trump is ready to dump QUAD including Japan to get a great deal from China. Trump, is a 100 per cent transactionalist. He courted Pakistan because of that. India may not be that useful to him. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to find out his own novel ways to deal with President Xi. There is no other option. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The meeting on Friday November 21 between the U.S. President Donald Trump and the New York Mayoral-elect Zohran Mamdani produced a win-win situation for both leaders. The maverick Republican President who earlier called Mamdani a lunatic communist and the 34 year old firebrand democratic socialist who calls even now Trump a fascist, got off well at their first interaction as both approached the issues as loyal New Yorkers.

In fact, this New Yorker background of both acted as a major catalyst in bringing out an understanding without any hitch which otherwise was expected at this meeting of an old diehard right winger and a young Left democrat who talked of imposing tax on billionaires in New York for improving the city. Trump belongs to the Queens part of New York though he is now officially a resident of Florida. Queens is very dear to the heart of Trump while Mamdani is also residing in a small flat in Queens. Mamdani’s programme for affordable housing for 8.5 million people in NYC who live in rented houses, has wide appeal among the New Yorkers including Trump supporters.

The important aspect of the discussions was that Mamdani stuck to his programme, there was no dilution in his programme for the development of NYC on which he campaigned before the November 4 elections. He spoke on a low key, but he was firm. Even when he was asked by a reporter at the joint press conference whether Trump is a fascist still as he termed him earlier, Mamdani at first hesitated, Trump then commented ‘That’s all”. Still when the reporter persisted with the same question, Mamdani said calmly “Yes”. That is his assessment of Trump as a political person with definite hard right agenda, but here in the White House meeting, he was not seeking any political agenda, he was only interested in getting President Trump’s consent for his programme to improve the living conditions in New York. On that he succeeded.

So that way, Mamdani getting total Trump approval to his affordable housing programme from a real estate tycoon whose family is in business in building luxury apartments throughout the world, was a big win and the credit must go to the manner he presented the issues before the President whose federal funds he wanted for making a success of his programme for renovating NYC keeping the interests of the underprivileged sections of the city who are compelled to pay 40 per cent of their monthly income as rent.

But for Trump also, his liberal face at the meeting with Mamdani is factored by other important considerations apart from his special feeling for New York. Trump is taking into account the latest results in November 4 elections in which the Republicans lost to the Democrats in a number of seats with bigger margins. Many Republicans are blaming Trump’s unilateral policies for this fall of support for Republicans and looking for some review of his attitude so that there is no adverse impact on the midterm elections in November 2026.

As per US constitution, on November 3, 2026, midterm elections will be held for all the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and to 33 seats out of the total 100 seats in US Senate. Presently, the Republicans have 219 in the House of Representatives as against 214 by the Democrats. The margin is only of five. If the Republicans do not take corrective actions, they will be minority in the House. Similarly in Senate, the Republicans have 53 as against 45 by the Democrats. Two seats are vacant. Though the results of the midterm do not have any impact on the running of the government by President Trump, it will embolden the Democrats in taking back power from the Republicans in 2028 Presidential elections.

For Mamdani, it is very crucial to make a success of his tenure as the new Mayor of New York City with effect from January 1, 2026. The NYC budget is more than US$ 12 billion and 25 per cent of the funds come from federal government. The decision is with Trump. Earlier during the campaign, Trump threatened that he would stop federal funds if Mamdani was elected the Mayor. That phase is over now. Mamdani can go ahead with his professed programme, the smooth implementation of which depends on the availability of adequate funds.

What was assuring to Mamdani was that Trump said “I am very confident that he can do a very good job. The better he does, more happier I am. We are going to help him to make everybody’s dream come true having a strong and very safe New York”. Zohran Mamdani could not look for more.

Mamdani is certainly looking at his future in the Democratic Party also. His success as the Mayor of the city will catapult his position nationally as also in the Democratic Party leadership. Since he was born in Uganda, he can not file for the position of the President, as per US constitution, but he can play a leading role and can go up higher in the Democratic Party leadership.

In the Democratic Socialist wing of the Party led by Bernie Sanders, Mamdani is the youngest apart from Saikat Chakraborti who is contesting the primary from San Francisco for the Democratic Party in the 2026 midterm elections. He is 39, Harvard educated and is already running a movement for the rejuvenation of the Democratic Party leadership. Both Mamdani and Saikat have great future in the Democratic Party. Mamdani needs Trump till 2028 elections to achieve his goal. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be attending G20 summit at Johannesburg on November 22 and 23 amidst the diplomatic crisis for India over the Bangladesh demand for deportation of the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from her shelter in India. On November 17, the International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh indicted Hasina on charges of acting against humanity and ordered death penalty to the Awami League supremo for her alleged crimes.

Though Bangladesh is not a member of G20 and Pakistan is also not attending, Bangladesh officials have already briefed the Dhaka based ambassadors of the western nations as also the other countries of the Global South and West Asia. Pakistan has got a big opportunity to defame India on this occasion. There is a concerted campaign in the international diplomatic world by Bangladesh focusing on India’s refusal so far to hand over Sheikh Hasina to the Yunus government as per their demand. The issue is sure to be raised at the G-20 summit by some Muslim nations.

That is why Indian Prime Minister has to be prepared fully with foolproof documentary evidence that the ICT set up by the Bangladesh Government to go into charges against Sheikh Hasina was a sham. The ICT had no legal sanctity and from the beginning, the process of the ICT violated all the established norms of functioning of such tribunals. Indian officials are sufficiently equipped to challenge the Bangladesh version on Sheikh Hasina and refuse deportation of the Awami League leader who is again active from Indian soil and is in fact leading the latest campaign against the chief of the interim government in Bangladesh.

Narendra Modi has got one advantage. US President Donald Trump has boycotted the G-20 summit by alleging that South Africa was harassing the whites and the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is encouraging the racists. Though, the South African President has denied the allegations and trump could not give any proof, Trump decided that the US would not be represented by any. So there will be no official from the US for the first time in G-20 summit. Significantly, the next g20 summit is scheduled to be hosted by the USA in 2026 in Miami. The latest stance of Trump has led to uncertainty in G-20 summit circles about the holding of the next summit in Miami in USA. There are reports that the 2026 summit may be rescheduled to some other country if Trump continues with his present stance.

Apart from Trump, the Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be at the summit but both the countries will be represented at the next highest level. All other leaders of the western nations are attending including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emanuel Macron, German Chancellor Frederick Merc, Italian Prime Minister G Meloni and Canadian Prime Minister Michael Carney. The interesting point is that while Trump is boycotting the Johannesburg summit on the issue of attacks against the Whites, the original Whites who settled in South Africa, the Britishers, are not complaining. The British PM Starmer kept mum on Trump’s allegations. It was against the British whites, the African National Congress fought and most of the Whites who are staying in South Africa are of British origin, but PM Keir Starmer did not share the politically motivated allegations by Trump against the South African President. As a result, the USA is now isolated from the other western nations on this issue.

The absence of Trump at the summit has made the Indian Prime Minister tension free as he has been avoiding facing one on one meeting with Trump in the recent months following the US-India tariff war and the four day India-Pakistan short war in May this year. PM might use his full time during the two days of the summit in having bilateral discussions with the member countries heads apart from attending the sessions of the summit and conveying India’s perspective on the issues facing the world in general and global South in particular. Already in 2023, Indian PM hosted the G-20 summit in New Delhi. India is the country with the strongest economy among the developing democratic nations. The Global South members including the host South Africa will look for what the Indian PM says in his address in the context of the continuing tariff war between India and the USA and worsening of personal relations between Narendra Modi and Donald trump.

Prime Minister is expected to have bilateral meetings with the new Japanese Prime Minister and the Canadian Prime Minister Michael Carney. In recent days, India’s relations with Canada have improved. The foreign minister of Canada Anita Anand visited India recently and had meeting with the Indian PM apart from the external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar. But still the delicate issues of Indian involvement in hit actions in Canada remain. A bilateral meeting may help in removing some of the misapprehensions still damaging India-Canada relations.

The Johannesburg Summit has been prepared in accordance with the philosophy of the last three summits held in Jakarta, New Delhi, and Rio de Janeiro. It will make its own contribution by underlining the African dimension across development agendas. During 2023 G20 summit hosted by Narendra Modi, African Union was made a full member of G20. The present summit of 2025 is expected to expand the areas of cooperation and collaboration between the African nations as also between the developed countries and the African Union.

The South African president Cyril Ramaphosa is making special efforts to implement the theme Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability into concrete action programmes through summit declaration. He is looking for using the 2025 summit to open a new chapter in the development of the African nations which are still laggard in comparison to other parts of the developing world including Latin America and Asia. For the Indian Prime Minister however , the most crucial task during the Johannesburg summit is to win the perception war against Bangladesh on the issue of Sheikh Hasina. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Bangladesh plunged into a fresh turbulence on Monday, November 17 after the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) announced its verdict sentencing to death former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for” crimes against humanity” committed during last year’s student led agitation that led to the fall of her Awami League Government on August 5, 2024.

The ICT set up by the interim Government of Bangladesh headed by Chief Advisor Dr. Muhammad Yunus also indicted Sheikh Hasina on two other counts. The verdict was on expected lines. Sheikh Hasina who has been staying in India since August 5 afternoon last year, was in a challenging mood. She said that the Tribunal was rigged. She denied every single charge and castigated Tribunal for not giving the Awami League and herself a fair chance to defend themselves

In a belligerent mood, Sheikh Hasina said in her statement “the verdict revealed the brazen and murderous intent of extremist figures on an unelected government with no democratic mandate”. She even charged the Yunus regime by saying that the Islamic extremists inside the present administration including figures from Hizbut Tahir seek to undermine Bangladesh’s strong tradition of a secular government.”

Monday’s development took place less than three months before the scheduled general elections in Bangladesh in February 2026. Though, the exact date will be announced by the Election Commission shortly, the interim Government chief announced on Thursday last both the general elections and the referendum on the July charter would take place on the same day in February. All the political parties excluding the banned Awami League are in the thick of the election battle as this verdict was announced on Monday afternoon.

The security situation was tense during the day as Awami League called for a lock down in Dhaka and the areas surrounding the Court. Army pickets were stationed in all important points of the nation’s capital. There were sporadic explosions and bomb attacks. Hasina has been active in the last few weeks and as sources indicate that the Awami League supporters including the leaders who were earlier hiding, are coming out to participate in demonstrations and bandhs. It seems they have decided to show their strength in public. For Awami League, after this verdict, their members will be facing new attacks and they will have to meet the challenge.

As a result, the coming few weeks are going to be stormy though the major political parties like BNP, Jamaat e Islami, NCP and others will be busy in choosing their own candidates and participating in the election campaign. A recent opinion poll about the coming elections carried out by a private agency indicated that the Awami League, despite support has still support of more than 20 per cent just below the BNP. The other parties are ranking much below. This has given a boost to the morale of the Awami League supporters but at the same time, the divided anti- League political parties are getting frightened and trying to have common approach against any fresh move by the Awami League.

While at the ground level of politics, the situation in Bangladesh has further engulfed in turmoil, for India, especially, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the task has become tougher. This tackling of Sheikh Hasina’s death penalty verdict and allowing her to carry on her campaign from Indian soil, will be the biggest diplomatic challenge for Narendra Modi. Sheikh Hasina has been campaigning and issuing statement against the Yunus government in the recent weeks. This could not have been possible without the tacit support of the Indian government. Earlier, a number of times, the Bangladesh government had requested India not to allow Sheikh Hasina to use Indian soil for her political actions against the Yunus govt. But Modi government has not taken any note of that. And now the latest is the statement of Hasina against the verdict and the ICT itself.

India can not hand over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh at this time, though Bangladesh will put maximum diplomatic pressure at international level to persuade India to the handing over of Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh. Pakistan and some other Muslim nations may support Bangladesh on this. India will have to be ready for that type of international pressure. For Dr. Yunus, this is a golden opportunity to take on his sworn enemy Sheikh Hasina. He will do everything to organize deportation of Sheikh Hasina from India. He has political ambitions though he does not give that impression in public. If he succeeds in his attempt before the general elections, Dr. Yunus can be the accepted leader of the Bangladesh political parties for the post of President of the new Government after the February elections.

India is on a sticky wicket after Monday’s death penalty verdict on Sheikh Hasina. Only exceptional diplomatic dexterity of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi can save India in this situation. It fully depends on Narendra Modi how he deals with this delicate situation keeping into account India’s best interests in terms of national security. Next few weeks are crucial for Indian diplomacy. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

The NDA led by the BJP has swept the assembly polls in Bihar stunning the RJD and the other constituents of the INDIA Bloc by the extent of the win of the NDA constituents in the 243 member state assembly. The initial results till this afternoon indicate that the NDA has got 202 seats as against 35 received by Mahagathbandhan and six by others. This 2025 verdict can be taken as a disaster for the INDIA Bloc in Bihar led by RJD as in 2020 assembly elections, the MGB was nearly scraping through with a majority. The NDA got 122 seats as against 114 by MGB while others got seven seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party in 2020 with 75 seats as against 74 by the BJP. The JD(U) was the third party five years back.

At a time when the MGB was gripped with big optimism after the projection of Tejashwi Yadav as the potential chief minister of the MGB and Rahul Gandhi led movement against SIR took the character of a massive movement against the Election Commission as also centre, what went wrong in the strategy and poll campaign of the MGB?. This has to be assessed by the leaders of INDIA Bloc and their think tank after the full results are out, but a few indicators are available which have to be studied carefully by the MGB leadership.

First, Nitish Kumar is no push over. This 2025 election has rehabilitated the chief minister. He has proverbial nine lives. The BJP has got the largest number of seats singly at 92 as against 82 received by JD(U), but Nitish Kumar is due to be administered the oath with full powers and the state BJP leadership has to wait for long as long as the JD(U) supremo keeps physically fit.

Secondly, the women support has certainly gone mostly in favour of NDA due to Nitish Kumar. The announcement of additional funds for the women just few days before the elections had its big impact. Nitish Kumar could get the first advantage of such revdis as he was in power. The RJD leader’s follow up announcement failed to garner that impact. In fact women participation in the polls and their assertion of voting rights aggressively are the outcome of the various women centric schemes including cash transfer to women. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has shown in Bengal how effectively, it can be implemented in the state to get political mileage.

Thirdly, Rahul Gandhi’s movement against SIR did not have the expected effect on electorate. Even in dalit and poor agricultural labour bases, the NDA candidates fared better compared to the 2020 polls. The strategy on SIR has to be assessed properly by the INDIA Bloc as a whole. Rahul Gandhi is certainly a senior leader but he should not be allowed to hijack INDIA Bloc agenda on his own terms. Congress got only 4 seats-this should determine the organisational stature of the Congress in Bihar which continuously bargained for more seats from RJD.

RJD was the leader of MGB. So it got the maximum hit from NDA sweep. But the details of voting figures indicate that the RJD might have got more votes than the BJP, RJD has the potential and it is the party which can stage a comeback after assessing its fault lines in the 2025 poll campaign. Similarly, the CPI(ML)-L which lost heavily has to assess that its 2020 base has been lost to some extent. The Party worked hard for its candidates as also for other MGB nominees. The CPI(ML)-L general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya has to go deep into the low performance of his party as well as the MGB in the 2025 polls.

It is clear that the Jan Suraaj Party of Prashant Kishor and AIMIM of Owaisi cut the MGB votes, especially the votes of RJD. These things happen in a parliamentary democracy in elections. But the real big jolt to the MGB came from Chirag Paswan’s Party LJP(RV) which could transfer its dalit votes to the NDA candidates. The BJP and JD(U) benefitted immensely from their alliance with Chirag’s party. With 21 seats, Chirag Paswan has become powerful in both state and central politics. The MGB leadership has to go into all the factors that contributed to the defeat of many of its candidates in their strongholds including the role of Chirag Paswan’s party.

While the INDIA Bloc and MGB leaderships are expected to do introspection on the factors responsible for the defeat of the MGB, for BJP, it is their moment of glory. Though, the central leaders were talking of sure win by NDA in Bihar, in private, they were worried. The movement against SIR got both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah panicky. But they are great strategists and they know how to get out of a crisis situation. They did that. Amit Shah will certainly take credit for the victory of his strategy in Bihar elections. His next focus is now on showing a better performance in the next round of state assembly elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

Herein lies the big task of the INDIA Bloc to take proper lessons from Bihar election debacle and prepare unitedly to meet the challenge in the next round of state assembly polls scheduled in April/May 2026. Only four months are left. So the INDIA Bloc constituents have no time left, they should start their work in the concerned states. The BJP central leadership will do all their utmost to topple the opposition governments in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Their focus will be fully on these two states. In Kerala, the fight is between CPI(M) led LDF and the Congress led UDF, BJP can at best secure two/three seats. The new government will be led by any of the INDIA Bloc partners CPI(M) or the Congress.

Similarly in West Bengal, in Mamata Banerjee, the INDIA Bloc has got a political strategist who can take on the BJP at the state level in the 2026 assembly elections. All indications suggest that whatever efforts, Home Minister Amit Shah may make, the BJP is not organizationally in a position to fare better. But still, the central leadership of the BJP will make use all of its cards to see that their objective is achieved. Trinamool Congress supremo is aware of this and she and her party are ready.

For the INDIA Bloc, there is some reason for getting worried at the recent developments in Tamil Nadu on the eve of the 2026 assembly elections. The film star Vijay is making waves and he is getting massive response from youth and women. His political party has not yet decided to take a position on alliance. But if Vijay takes a position aligning with the AIADMK-BJP alliance, that might pose a threat to the Stalin led DMK and the INDIA Bloc constituents who are jointly contesting the assembly polls. The political situation in Tamil Nadu in 2025 is a bit different from the 2021 polls. The DMK led front should take the challenge seriously and make massive preparations to take on any joint threat posed by the state opposition.

In Assam, BJP is confident of retaining power in the state. The central party has faith in the chief minister Himanta Biswa Sharma’s strategy of delinking Bengali speaking Muslims from the Assamese speaking Muslims and campaigning on Hindutva lines to gain favour with Assamese Hindus. In Assam, at last the INDIA bloc parties have arrived at a sort of unity for the 2026 elections under the leadership of the Congress Party which is the leading INDIA Bloc party in Assam. Assam has 35 per cent people of minorities mainly Muslims. AIUDF is the party mainly looking after the interests of Bengali speaking Muslims for long. The Congress has problems in having electoral front with this party. But if AIUDF fights separately that will help BJP in many constituencies. The Congress may take lessons from the strategic alliance of Chirag Paswan with NDA in Bihar and how it benefitted the NDA. The opposition front can have electoral understanding with the objective of not dividing anti-BJP votes, even though not making AIUDF a part of the opposition front. If the INDIA Bloc wants to defeat BJP in 2026 elections in Assam, there can not be any division of anti-BJP votes.

Each state election needs a different poll strategy. For Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the electoral scenario is set, but in Assam, it is still fluid. Only one step has been taken forward, a few more steps are needed for final victory of INDIA Bloc in Assam which is possible with a proper poll strategy. INDIA Bloc leaders have to meet, do painstaking analysis and take steps for the April/ May 2026 state assembly elections. One more assembly election battle in 2025 after Delhi has been won by the BJP. But for the 2026 battles, INDIA Bloc can not afford to lose any. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

Bangladesh is going for national elections in February 2026 along with the holding of referendum for the July charter on the same polling day. The national address of the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Government Dr. Muhammad Yunus on Thursday afternoon set the stage for the Parliamentary elections to end the present political uncertainty in the country.

Along with these decisions, Dr. Yunus announced the formation of six commissions to reform the judiciary, election system, administration, police, anti-corruption and the constitution.. The aim of the reforms is to have a state system based on public ownership, accountability and welfare, he said. Dr. Yunus said that it had become essential to carry out some national reforms to prevent re-emergence of fascism and authoritarian rule in Bangladesh.

The much awaited national address by the chief adviser of the interim government is being assessed by the leading political parties of the country who are already in the election campaign. The main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the Jamaat E Islami and the National Citizens Party (NCP), the new party of the students are in the thick of the campaign along with the other smaller parties who are looking for alliance with one of these three parties.

The Awami League which has been banned from participating in the February elections has reactivated its ranks and in the last few days organised rallies in a number of districts protesting against the authoritarianism of the Yunus regime. The Awami League workers who were hiding in the earlier months, are now coming out more openly and establishing contacts with their support base. The local leaders of Awami League are getting instructions from Sheikh Hasina from his base in India. In fact, in the recent days, the ousted Prime Minister is giving media interviews explaining the Awami League position on the eve of the elections in Bangladesh.

In the last fifteen months since the ousting of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina, there has been tumultuous changes in the positioning of the political parties in Bangladesh. The students body leading the anti-quota movement was the vanguard of the July movement leading to the fall of the Awami League government and the impression gained ground that this body which formed the political party National Citizens Party (NCP) in February this year, would be a leading force as a political party in the 2026 elections. But the developments in the last eight months since the founding of NCP shows that NCP has failed to emerge as a viable political party in the minds of the electorate while Jamaat has made big inroads. In the recent elections to the students unions in the universities, students wing of Jamaat has swept defeating both BNP and the NCP bodies. In fact, NCP candidates were nowhere in the picture.

At the campaign level, NCP leaders are divided and the party as a central body has not been able to furnish the names of the common candidates though BNP and Jamaat have already made big progress in choosing the candidates for their constituencies. Dhaka based observers believe that while BNP with its organizational spread and united leadership under Begum Zia, is set to occupy the leading position in the elections, Jamaat may emerge as the next party after BNP marginalizing NCP to a great extent. There are reports that some NCP leaders are trying for an understanding with BNP at individual level while a few others are working for understanding with Jamaat.

Jamaat in the electoral history of Bangladesh never got more than eight per cent of the votes though the party had a big nuisance value in creating disturbances for the ruling government. Now taking into account the possibility of coming near power, Jamaat e Islami leaders have sobered and projecting themselves as responsible leaders. Jamaat had understanding with BNP in earlier elections but this time, BNP is looking at Jamaat as a threat and refusing any truck with the party. BNP is confident of getting majority on its own in the absence of its traditional rival Awami League.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has introduced reforms to enhance participation and operational preparedness, including mechanisms for out-of-country voting. To strengthen election security, the Election Commission plans to integrate the armed forces into its election security framework. Despite these efforts, the pre-election environment remains fragile, with isolated but politically significant episodes of political violence, questions about the neutrality of local officials, and lingering distrust of security forces.

With roughly three months remaining until the February polls, the Election Commission has emerged as both a key institutional actor and a flashpoint for partisan criticism. The proposed Representation of the People (Amendment) Ordinance 2025 (RPO) includes significant changes aimed at enhancing transparency and rebuilding voter confidence. The revised RPO raises campaign spending limits, reintroduces the “No Vote” option, and empowers the Election Commission to annul constituency results in cases of irregularities. Following months of public consultation, the Election Commission also cancelled the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the upcoming election, citing operational challenges and concerns over credibility. It further ruled that alliance candidates must contest using their parent party’s electoral symbol, rejecting proposals to permit joint symbols for coalitions.

From all the reports of EC’s preparedness, there is reason to believe that the Election Commission really wants to hold a free and fair elections in Bangladesh. This is what the Bangladesh people are looking for. Political observers in Dhaka are watching with interest what will be the attitude of the Awami League supporters on the polling day? Will they boycott the February polls or they will resort to some tactical voting. The electoral battle will be fiercer in the coming weeks. (IPA Service)

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By Nitya Chakraborty

In Chinese media, lot of interest is focused on the future of the US sponsored security bloc QUAD and what will be India’s relations with it in the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s strained relations with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the last August 30 summit of the Indian PM with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China.

This sort of attention from China to the future of QUAD is expected as it is known that this bloc of four nations, USA, India, Japan and Australia are part of an Indo-Pacific strategy meant to challenge China in terms of maritime security. Its programme and consequent actions have been aimed at China. Naturally, the Chinese leaders are concerned at the consolidation of QUAD and they equally feel elated when the cracks appear.

The Chinese official media is now focusing on the political problems of India in becoming a part of QUAD and a part of the Asia-Pacific strategy of the USA. In an editorial on November 8, Global Times, the English language official daily of the Chinese Government said that the QUAD members might have shown military fervour in the recent days but there is a political coldness in their relationship due to conflicting political interests. In this context, India has been mentioned favourably.

GT editorial says QUAD faces significant obstacles in political coordination. For instance, the QUAD leaders’ summit, the highest level political coordination mechanism, was originally scheduled for the end of the year in India but was postponed to early 2026apparently due to the recent tensions between New Delhi and Washington. GT says this not only undermines the continuity of strategic dialogue among the four countries but also reveals insufficient consensus among member states on braider issues.

According to the Chinese official line, since the beginning of this year, the Quad, the core mechanism of the Indo-Pacific strategy led by the US, has shown a clear sense of “military fervour” and “political coldness” in its cooperation focus, which has called into question the future of this minilateral bloc.

On the military front, security cooperation under the Quad framework has deepened into a regularized, multi-tiered system. In the first week of November, India hosted the “Cope India” joint air force exercise, with the United States as the core participant and Japan and Australia joining as observers. Meanwhile, Exercise Malabar 2025 brought together the navies of the four nations in Guam for one of the biggest Quad naval drills in the Pacific from October 28 to November 8.

As the Global Times sees it, QUAD’s current state of “strengthened military cooperation but weakened political coordination” stems from multiple structural contradictions.

First, the misalignment of strategic priorities. The differing geopolitical interests among Quad members create coordination challenges. India, for instance, has long adhered to the principle of “strategic autonomy,” maintaining a balanced approach with the US, Japan and Australia in security cooperation while preserving close ties with Russia. However, the US seeks to bind its allies within the Quad framework to align with its Indo-Pacific strategy. This tension between “balancing interests” and “dominant intentions” directly manifests in the volatility of India-US relations. When friction arises between India and the US on bilateral issues, the Quad’s political agenda becomes the first to suffer.

Second, the dual dilemma of informality and flexibility. The Quad employs an “informal dialogue mechanism” without formal treaty constraints. While this flexibility initially fostered cooperation among the four nations during its early stages, its drawbacks have become increasingly apparent as strategic objectives evolved.

Third, there are diverging security priorities among Quad members toward China. The formation and development of the Quad in recent years were largely driven by external pressures such as shifting regional power dynamics, particularly the shared need to counter China’s rise. As the situation evolves, differences in security concerns toward China have become apparent.

For instance, India’s security focus remains centered on the China-India border dispute and its claim to the Indian Ocean. With the current thaw in China-India relations, New Delhi prefers to resolve bilateral tensions through engagement and dialogue rather than positioning the Quad as an anti-China alliance. While Australia prioritizes South China Sea shipping lanes and collaborates closely with the US on security matters, its economic reliance on resource exports to China makes it reluctant to maintain strained relations.

As per this Chinese view, military cooperation demonstrates greater operational feasibility and technical sophistication compared to political coordination. For instance, joint military exercises have clearly defined tactical objectives that can be progressively implemented through standardized processes such as joint training, equipment interoperability and personnel contact. In contrast, political coordination involves broader issues including economic interest distribution, multilateral relationship management, and strategic communication and compromise, which are far more complex and sensitive than military matters.

This “military fervour and political coldness” reflects the Quad mechanism’s lack of deep strategic consensus, with its cooperation largely driven by external pressure. As the Quad’s dominant power, the US’ “America First” policy inherently conflicts with the security framework it seeks to establish, which has become the key cause of the Quad’s “limping” status.

GT then predicts, given the well-established nature of the US-Japan, US-Australia and AUKUS military alliances, among others, the Quad’s long-term viability would be challenged if it relies solely on military cooperation without achieving tangible results in political and economic spheres. This could reduce it to a mere formality, with its limping status becoming the norm.

So, it seems from this GT editorial which is the official view of the Chinese Government that at the moment, India is politically cold to QUAD due to the differences over India-US trade issues. It is to be noted that GT has not predicted any long term dip in India –US relationship, its comment is limited to QUAD. There is no optimism expressed that India will continue to improve relations with China ignoring Trump. There is caution in its editorial. It only assesses the latest developments in India-US relations and its impact on QUAD.

The fact is that China is watching closely the Indian moves to Trump gestures., Narendra Modi has started the process of improving relations with China but he has not closed India’s door to Trump. Indian PM is waiting for some concessions from Trump. The India-US relations may go back to normal even with the India-China relations improving. Chinese leaders as seasoned politicians know that. They will monitor every move of Narendra Modi and Trump in the coming days. (IPA Service)

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