Nilambur Bypoll Result Throws Up A Disturbing Trend In Kerala Politics

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The result of the Nilambur by-election has thrown up an extremely dangerous trend in Kerala politics, which must cause grave concern among the secular parties.

The victory of the Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukat is being widely ascribed to the solid support it has received — that too openly — from the Jamaat-e-Islami, which believes in establishing a theocratic state.

Facts and figures first. Shoukat defeated Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate M. Swaraj by a margin of 11,077 votes. Trinamool Congress state convener P. V. Anvar, whose exit from the LDF and subsequent resignation necessitated the by-election polled around 20,000 votes. Anvar had contested as an Independent. It goes without saying that the Anvar factor accounted, at least to some extent, for the defeat of the LDF candidate, and contributing to the victory of the UDF candidate. The BJP came a distant fourth, managing to poll only 6,000 odd votes.

Of course, the Nilambur verdict has disappointed the LDF which was hoping to win the seat despite the exit of Anvar from its camp. The Anvar factor would not have any impact. That was the assessment of the LDF camp. The result shows that Anvar proved the spoilsport for CPI(M) candidate Swaraj.

Obviously, the CPI(M) has its task cut out. True, one swallow does not make a summer. That said, the CPI(M) must undertake introspection and initiate damage-control steps right away. A close look at how the fundamentalist forces have managed to make inroads into its vote base, especially in some of its strongholds in the constituency, especially in Nilambur municipality shows that the party has its task cut out. That disturbing development means the CPI(M)-led LDF must bend all its energies into arresting this dangerous trend in Kerala politics. The party’s assessment, articulated by CPI(M) state secretary M. V. Govindan, that the UDF victory is mainly due to the support from the Jamaat, is not wrong.

But it must be followed up with effective measures to regain the loss of votes, caused by the Jamaat backing for the UDF and the Anvar factor, in its strongholds. That task, not an easy one, must be undertaken with missionary zeal by the secular camp led by the CPI(M). The exercise brooks no delay as the LDF has to face the local bodies election by the end of this year and the crucial assembly election in April 2026.

The UDF camp is, understandably, jubilant. They are justified in celebrating the Nilambur victory which has come their way after a long time. But the celebrations must be tempered with the realisation that the win could prove costly for it both politically and electorally in the long run. It may have won the battle. But it would end up losing the war unless it changes its dangerous policy of sucking up to the forces of religious fundamentalism. The Front must stop seeking their support. It is not too late to do so. The time to act is now.

Otherwise, it may manage to win elections. But, in the process, Kerala will suffer irreparable damage. And that is a luxury a State like Kerala, known for its strong secular credentials and pluralist ethos, can afford. But the pronouncements of UDF leaders, including those from Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) leaders, do not inspire confidence. Their continued justification of the support from fundamentalist forces shows their proclivity to go in for short-term gains, ignoring the long-term danger in seeking the support of these forces. The IUML leaders would do well to remember the firm and forthright stand taken by their erstwhile chief Mohammed Ali Shihab Thangal in the wake of the Babri masjid demolition. His counsel for restraint was a key factor that prevented the eruption of communal violence in the state following the infamous Babri masjid demolition.

The LDF in general and the CPI(M) in particular, should also imbibe the message emanating from Nilambur. It must plunge heart and soul into the battle for strengthening the secular polity and thwart the sinister designs of communal forces. In retrospect, the CPI(M) would seem to have made a tactical error in justifying its tie-up with the People’s Democratic Party(PDP), led by Abdul Nasir Maudhany, suspect in the Coimbatore blast case. If the party had refrained from taking that stand, it would have helped the party to gain the moral ground in the electoral battle. Its failure to do so weakened its blistering attacks against the Jamaat. The correctives must be applied without further loss of time. That way lies the path to regaining lost ground. (IPA Service)