Low Turn Out Of Voters In Kerala On Friday Favours Left Democratic Front

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It was a bruising battle for the mind of Kerala’s voters for 20 Lok Sabha constituencies on April 26. The poll campaign saw no quarters being asked for and none given. But the enthusiasm witnessed in the run-up to polling did not reflect in the voting.

That way, Kerala sprang a surprise by recording a low turnout in the Lok Sabha elections held on Friday , which was seven per cent lower than the 2019 LS elections.

Polling started on a brisk note with voters turning up in large numbers in the initial hours in almost all constituencies except Ponnani and Malappuram. But the enthusiasm waned by afternoon, and polling slowed down in southern and central districts. However, northern districts saw huge turnouts in the evening with many booths flaunting serpentine queues. The poll percentage is likely to go up as polling continued in over 190 booths in northern Kerala even after 10 p.m.

Friday’s turnout is lower than that of 2014(74.02%) and 2019(77.67%) Lok Sabha polls. As many as 12 constituencies, 11 of them in the north, recorded a turnout above 70 %. Out of the southern constituencies, only Alappuzha crossed the 70 per cent mark. Kannur recorded the highest (75.74%) and Pathanamthitta the lowest at (63.35 %).

Slightly more than 1.95 crore of the State’s 2.77 crore strong electorate exercised their franchise on Friday. Female voters accounted for 70.90 %(1.01crore), male voters 69.76%(93.59 crore) and transgender voters 38.96%(143).

The low turnout has not dampened the spirits of Left Democratic Front(LDF) leaders. If anything, they feel it would benefit the LDF. The low turnout shows that the so-called anti-incumbency factor against the LDF Government has not worked at all. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan was a picture of confidence. A visibly happy Pinarayi said the LDF would sweep the polls, repeating its 2004 LS poll performance of winning 18 seats. Remember, the turnout that year was low too – only 71.2 per cent.

The CM’s optimism is not an empty boast. It is based on significant straws in the wind and visible signs of a trend in favour of the LDF. Topping the pro-left factors is the LDF’s success in creating the perception that the LDF alone is capable of standing up to the BJP-RSS duo. Here the Chief Minister led from the front campaigning tirelessly against the communal campaign of the saffron camp. In a way, it was Pinarayi who set the agenda for the campaign in this election. He succeeded in exposing the “anti-Kerala stance” of both the Union government and the Congress-led United Democratic Front(UDF). He also hit the UDF hard at its weak spot: failure to take a bold stand against the aggressive Union Government. The campaign struck a responsive chord among Kerala’s enlightened voters. His courage in filing a case against the Modi government’s efforts to economically strangle Kerala and the concessions he managed to get from the apex court also added to his stature as an unrelenting fighter against the Hindutva forces and Modi government.

No less significant is the LDF Government’s bold stance against the Citizenship Amendment Act(CAA). Kerala was the first state to pass a resolution against CAA. The CM stated that CAA would not be implemented in the State. This came as an immense relief to a worked Muslim community. Muslims were further reassured by his strong criticism of the Prime Minister’s “anti-Muslim fulminations” at a rally in Rajasthan.

All this is in glaring contrast to the pusillanimity of the Congress to take on the BJP-RSS combine. Congress even failed to mention CAA in its manifesto. The shocking stand of the Congress has created grave concern among the Muslim community. The party’s unpardonable “silence” on the implementation of the RSS agenda by the BJP Government has greatly upset the minorities. Congress MPs failure to effectively espouse the causes of Kerala and address significant concerns of the State in Parliament have also angered Kerala’s enlightened voters.

Another significant factor which would have a vital bearing on the poll outcome is the visible swing of the Muslim community which accounts of nearly 30 per cent of the State’s population, towards the LDF. What must worry the Congress camp is the pro-LDF shift in a big slice of the of the EK faction of Samastha, which is the backbone of Indian Union Muslim League(IUML), an ally of the Congress in Kerala. This has happened because of the bold stand taken by the LDF in addressing the concerns of Muslims – something which the Congress has failed to do. The other faction of the Sunni Muslims – the AP faction led by Kanthapuram AP Abubacke Musliyar – has always backed LDF in the past elections. Now, if a big slice of the Samastha voters also turn to the LDF, the Congress-led UDF would suffer a severe setback.

Such a shift is very much on the cards as Samastha is not happy with the stand of a section of IUML which is critical of it. Samastha has said no to a plea by the IUML to issue a joint statement in favour of the UDF. That has widened the rift between the two. The shocking action of IUML workers in burning a copy of “Suprabhatham”, the official mouthpiece of Samastha, which published a pro-LDF ad has further angered the Samastha leadership. The refusal to issue a joint statement is a serious setback to the IUML and Congress. It a clear signal for the Samastha supporters to go ahead and vote for the LDF. And observers of the Kerala election scene say it has actually happened in the election. If that is true, then IUML candidates in Ponnani and Malappuram constituencies are in real danger. The Samastha support to the LDF could extend to other Northern Kerala constituencies like Kasaragod, Kannur, Vadakara and Wayanad.

As if all this isnot enough, the Congress’s refusal to give an additional seat to IUML and its directive not to use the IUML’s green flag at Rahul Gandhi’s rallies is an additional bonus for the LDF. The humiliation of and insult to IUML would certainly reflect in the voting pattern. It could affect the voting even in the safest Congress constituency – Wayanad from where Rahul is seeking re-election.

Last but not the least is the growing perception that Congress MPs are vulnerable to poaching by BJP in the post-poll setting. The Congress has not been able to give a guarantee that this would not happen. This could also have a big impact on the final outcome of the election from Kerala.

No wonder, the CM and the LDF are brimming with confidence. The LDF slogan “Edathundengile India yullu (India will survive only if Left is there) has gone viral among voters, especially among the harried minority community. Kerala’s voters have come to realise that left MPs alone are capable of taking on the communal forces led by the BJP at the state and national level. The Congress is simply incapable of leading the anti-BJP battle.

These favourable factors are the basis of the LDF’s optimism that it would sweep the polls this time, repeating its 2004 performance. Even the Congress is conceding that there is tough fight in as many as 10 to 12 seats. In its desperation, the Congress resorted to vituperative and abusive campaigns against LDF candidates, especially KK Shailaja in Vadakara.

As for the BJP, its dream of opening its account will remain a dream despite the sordid tactics of the saffron camp to divide the people on religious lines. (IPA Service)