Can Sympathy Wave See Congress Through In Puthuppally?

THIRUVANTHAPURAM: The stage is set for a prestigious battle in the by-election to be held in Puthuppally Assembly constituency in Kottayam district of Kerala. The by-election has been necessitated by the death of incumbent MLA and former chief minister of Kerala Oommen Chandy. Though almost three years of the current Assembly are remaining, there is speculation that the by-election in Puthuppally is likely to be held either with the Lok Sabha elections In 2024 or ahead of it.

Although the Congress High Command has not decided the party candidate for the by-election, a family member of the Oommen Chandy family will, in all probability, be fielded. Most probably, it will be Oommen Chandy’s son, Chandy Oommen. The family has scotched speculation that Chandy’s daughter Achu Oommen, who was an active worker of the Kerala Students Union(KSU) many years ago, could also throw her hat in the ring. Achu herself is on record that she prefers to remain as the daughter of Oommen Chandyh. “After our father, Chandy Oommen is the only politician from the family,” she said. Other members of the family have also fully backed the candidature of Chandy Oommen. Also, Chandy Oommen, who is presently chairman of the National Outreach Cell of the Youth Congress, is close to both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. He has excellent equations with other national leaders of the Congress, like KC Venugopal, too.

Obviously, the Congress believes that a massive sympathy wave would tilt the scales decisively in the Congress’s favour. The party feels that the result of the Thrikkakara by-election, held following the death of Congress MLA P T Thomas, would be repeated in Puthuppally. It may be mentioned that Congress scored a big victory in Thrikkakara by fielding Uma Thomas, wife of PT Thomas. Uma had managed to secure 54 per cent of the votes polled in that by-election riding the crest of a sympathy wave.

The stakes, needless to say, are high for the Congress. Puthuppally, which Oommen Chandy nursed for 53 years, has always been a Congress stronghold. A loss there would be a disaster for the Congress. True, the constituency is awash with a sympathy wave. Therefore, logically, it should be a cakewalk for the Congress under the circumstances. But, in politics, two and two do not always add up to four.

But there are indications that a victory is not a foregone conclusion for the Congress. It would be anything but a cakewalk, given the ground reality. In the last Assembly election, CPI(M) candidate Jake C. Thomas put up a tough fight by managing to reduce OommenChandy’s margin to a mere 9000 odd votes, unlike his past victories when his majority ranged between 35,000 and 40,000 votes.

The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF) is determined to wrest the seat from the Congress this time around. And the CPI(M) can be expected to pull out all the stops to achieve that objective. Another factor favouring the CPI(M) is that out of the eight panchayats in the Puthuppally constituency, six are controlled by the LDF. This is one factor causing some concern to the Congress. But the party hopes the sympathy factor would see the party candidate through. Incidentally, Chandy Oommen and Jake Thomas belong to the opposing Orthodox and Jacobite factions respectively.

The Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) has also decided to field its own candidate. Though a minor player in Puthuppally, the BJP had polled 12 per cent of the total votes polled in the 2021 Kerala Assembly election. Will the party play the spoilsport for either of the fronts? That is the big question agitating the minds of Congress voters.

The Congress, it goes without saying, would sorely miss Oommen Chandy, who had strong bonds with the church, its leaders.. His death would definitely add to the problems of the Congress, which is struggling to keep its Christian vote base intact. With Oommen Chandy’s exit, the Congress does not have leaders of his stature who could endear themselves to the church.

A big slice of the Christian vote went to the CP{I(M) in the last assembly elections following the death of Kerala Congress leader K M Mani and the subsequent decision of his party, Kerala Congress(M), to join the LDF camp. Another section within the Congress has gravitated towards the BJP as well. But those Christian voters seem to be having a rethink in the wake of the inhuman attacks against Christians and their religious institutions in Manipur. In view of this grim backdrop, it would be an uphill task for the Congress to regain its standing among the Christian voters.(IPA Service)