Narendra Modi Faces Another Political Test In Assembly Polls

The Maharashtra assembly polls are slated later this year along with Jharkhand. Also the bypolls in 10 UP assembly seats, which will put Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to test, are due. The thing to watch, however, is whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will come out of his post-June 4 shell and campaign? Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir poll results will be out on October 8.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to recover from the setbacks of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Modi could do with a leg-up the snakes and ladder game that elections have become. The snake in the grass for Modi, however, is LoP Rahul Gandhi, who needs no introduction. Counsel for all Congress leaders, Abhishek Manu Singhvi says Rahul Gandhi will be Prime Minister after Prime Minister Narendra Modi retires in disgrace.

Before that, the assembly elections. Haryana and Jharkhand, of course, have their value. The prize catch will be Maharashtra, which everybody knows has Mumbai at its heart, India’s commercial and financial whirlpool that everybody wants to jump into.

Which party/alliance will get Mumbai in its pocket? As of now, it is the Mahayuti alliance led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. So, there is the Mahayuti. And there is the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Which of the two alliances is best-placed to win the assembly?

Take a break. Predicting victors and losers is a dubious game. In the United States one presidential debate can decide the outcome. Ask President Joe Biden! Kamala Harris could be next unless she pulls up her socks and socks Republican rival Donald Trump out of the race.

Donald Trump is Modi’s friend and Modi had foretold once, “Abki baar Trump!” Now, with his own “abki baar” lost to the fog in his mind, Prime Minister Modi has to recoup. The assembly elections will be fought with no quarter given or sought. The important thing is whether Modi will campaign like he did for the Lok Sabha elections.

If people feel sorry for Modi, know that nobody can help the man whose plight is in the mind. Modi has to fight and conquer the gremlins in his mind. He has to step out of the post-polls shell he has taken shelter in and stop walking as if on eggshells.

Confidence is the name of the game. Can Modi roar like the tiger he used to be? Is Narendra Modi confident enough to mount another election campaign in the land of Shivaji Maharaj? If Modi doesn’t, when the time beckons, it will be Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde against Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and Sharad Pawar along with Rahul Gandhi.

Uddhav Thackeray has gotten over Eknath Shinde’s betrayal and has been looking increasingly confident. For Uddhav Thackeray and Aditya Thackeray, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is a robber-baron of the kind that roamed Maharashtra in the long forgotten days of thuggery. A pre-election survey commissioned by the MVA said the MVA could win as many as 165 seats.

The MVA tally of 31 seats in the Lok Sabha polls bolstered the survey’s result. The MVA would do especially well in Nagpur, Amravati, Marathwada, and Western Maharashtra regions, the survey said. Problem areas would be Mumbai, Konkan, and North Maharashtra, where the Mahayuti is stronger.

“We won 31 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha polls. It is around 65 percent of the total 48 (Lok Sabha) seats. Ideally, we would like to maintain the same average in the assembly elections, which would get us around 188 seats. Our preliminary assessment suggests that we will be winning around 165 seats,” said a senior Congress leader.

The cut-off mark to form a government is 144 seats. The MVA, which includes the Congress, NCP (SCP) and Shiv Sena (UBT), hopes to replicate its Lok Sabha performance in the assembly polls, which are expected to be held before Diwali. The MVA was still talking strategy when last contacted.

The MVA alliance has divided Maharashtra into seven regions for working out a winning strategy. The MVA believes it has an upper-hand in Nagpur, Amravati, Marathwada and western Maharashtra regions. The Congress is expected to do well in Nagpur and Amravati regions. The Shiv Sena (UBT) in Marathwada.

In Western Maharashtra, the MVA is banking on NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). The MVA survey says the Mahayuti is dominant in the Mumbai, Konkan and north Maharashtra regions. The Mahayuti parties, BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP, continue to be in dominant positions in these three regions.

The MVA’s poor showing in Konkan region is worrying for the alliance. The BJP and Shiv Sena are a big challenge in the Mumbai region. North Maharashtra is another region where the MVA is weak. The MVA’s problem is there is little time left to make amends. Going into the assembly polls with these weaknesses is a fait accompli.

Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats and elections are slated to be held in October. NCP strongman Sharad Pawar said the MVA will win the elections with a tally of over 225 seats. People take Sharad Pawar seriously.

Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar with his faction of the NCP is part of the ruling Mahayuti. Sharad Pawar, who groomed Ajit Pawar to political adulthood, is building up his daughter Supriye Sule to be his heir apparent, and successor, which hasn’t gone down well with nephew Ajit Pawar.

Sharad Pawar says Maharashtra is in the hands of the wrong people. Recent political developments include that of a number of NCP (Ajit Pawar) MLAs returning to Sharad Pawar’s NCP. “When the assembly election of Maharashtra takes place in October, of the 288 seats, I see that we can win over 225 seats,” said Sharad Pawar, who sees a regime change in Maharashtra.

The MVA expects to do better than the Mahayuti because the Lok Sabha election results went in favour of the MVA. The BJP-led Mahayuti is running on Hindutva and has been campaigning based on that premise. Pawar’s NCP contested 10 Lok Sabha seats and won in eight. The Mahayuti has to do far better in the assembly polls than it did in the Lok Sabha elections.

But not to be taken lightly, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde said there will be only one alliance celebrating Diwali and that will be Mahayuti, which did extremely well in the recently held MLC elections. Both alliances will contest the assembly elections as two single blocs. The MVA election resolution is: “Make Maharashtra Great Again!”

The BJP, the single largest party in the assembly, says it would contest from 180 seats, while the Ajit Pawar NCP and CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena would contest 80 and 100 seats respectively. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde says post-assembly elections, the Mahayuti will form a new government. The Mahayuti is yet to work out a seat-sharing arrangement. But the key-question is will Prime Minister Narendra Modi be one of the star-campaigners for the Mahayuti? (IPA Service)