Ajit Pawar On The Cusp As His Clout Within Mahayuti Wanes

Ajit Pawar’s waxing and waning is a matter of research. In the battle between two Pawars, Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar, Ajit is the loser. His clout in the Mahayuti has been waning. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP performed the worst among the Mahayuti in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, getting only one seat out of the four it contested. Ajit’s wife Sunetra lost from Baramati against Supriya Sule, who is Sharad Pawar’s daughter and Ajit’s cousin. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Sunetra and Ajit’s son Parth Pawar got defeated from Maval parliamentary constituency by the Shiv Sena’s Shrirang Barne.

Those days both the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party were “undivided” unlike now when they were split wide open when the two Senas and two NCPs entered the fray and Ajit Pawar’s NCP received a drubbing which is hard to forget. Consequently, Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar faces challenges galore. Not just in diminishing clout within the Mahayuti but also the likelihood of NCP (Ajit Pawar) leaders making a beeline for NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).

Ajit Pawar is particularly worried whether he will be able to retain the Baramati assembly constituency, which he represented in the Maharashtra Assembly for a record seven times in a row. The Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha polls is next and the ultimate victory for NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) would be engineering Ajit Pawar’s defeat from the constituency, which along with the Baramati parliamentary constituency has been a Pawar family pocket-borough. Uncle Sharad Pawar isn’t one to forget political slights, especially one which was intended to hurt the political future of daughter Supriye Sule.

After the “epic” fight for the Baramati Lok Sabha seat, it will be “epic” fight for the Baramati assembly seat. And this time, Ajit Pawar will be the defender and not the challenger. NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) will be riding on the victory it notched in the parliamentary election and Ajit Pawar will be wishing he hadn’t split from his uncle and challenged Supriye Sule. The Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha polls are round the corner and approaching fast.

As it is, the tussle for the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency had sapped NCP (Ajit Pawar)’s energy. The defeat ensured Ajit Pawar would doubt his own abilities. Post the loss in the Baramati parliamentary constituency, Ajit Pawar is no longer the emperor of all that he surveys in Baramati. He is Deputy Chief Minister, but that’s all, in the battle of two NCPs, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) is clear victor with the highest strike rate in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha polls. NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) won eight of the 10 Lok Sabha seats it contested. Sunetra Pawar must have wept in private, but she had kept a very high-profile presence throughout the campaigning, banking on husband’s high profile.

Now, Sunetra wants to take the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament and this time the Pawar family is expected to unite. Humiliating Sunetra twice in a row would have long lasting effects on the family. NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) will cooperate with NCP (Ajit Pawar) though chances are NCP (Ajit Pawar) might dissolve and merge with NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot condemn and fight “family rule” in all its myriad avatars.

But going forward, Ajit Pawar has to win the Baramati assembly seat. Secondly, he has to keep his flock together with him. All politicians are fickle by nature and right now, the grass looks greener on the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) side. Besides, nobody feels sorry for Ajit Pawar, he took a risk and “winner keeps all” is the rule. Unfortunately, Ajit isn’t the winner. Not when juxtaposed with NCP (SP) and not when aligned with coalition partner, the Shiv Sena of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had always taken Ajit Pawar and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar more as an adversary than as an ally. This rivalry continued into the Lok Sabha elections with NCP (Ajit Pawar) losing clout in the Mahayuti following his poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls. Just like Uddhav Thackeray, Ajit Pawar had committed the mortal sin of aligning with a Hindutva party, unlike Sharad Pawar who stood firm with his secular credentials.

Ajit Pawar was no friend of the Shiv Sena ever, but was quite okay with the BJP, which shared with the Shiv Sena the Hindutva ideology. Ajit Pawar tolerated the Shiv Sena only when Uddhav Thackeray broke from the Hindutva ideology and joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi. However, Eknath Shinde was always wary of the uncle-nephew duo of Sharad and Ajit Pawar, especially their intentions. The suspicion and distrust hasn’t waned in the time both have become partners in government.

It is said that the BJP is forever cementing the frayed ties between the NCP (Ajit Pawar) and the Shinde Shiv Sena. Apparently, the Shinde Shiv Sena believes it made a mistake by agreeing to admit NCP (Ajit Pawar) into the Mahayuti. The Shinde Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP haven’t stopped fighting even as the assembly elections close in. The differences and the fighting are now out in the open. The important thing is, circumstances are against Ajit Pawar and he will have to take a decision sooner than later on his plan of action. Sharad Pawar will wait and watch. (IPA Service)