Indian Prime Minister Has A Challenging Task Of Balancing At G20 Summit

The 19-ton statue of the revered Hindu god Shiva, standing as a symbol of India’s determination to influence the global order, will undoubtedly catch the attention of world leaders attending the Group of 20 Summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10..

The Nataraja dancing figure, an impressive 28-foot (8.5 meters) tall sculpture crafted from precious metals like gold, silver, and iron, serves as a fitting symbol for Narendra Modi, the host of the summit. In 2014, Modi marked his ascent to power with a prayer ceremony along the Ganges River at a temple devoted to Lord Shiva, the deity associated with destruction, creation, and transformation.

More than nine years later, Modi has transformed and taken control of India’s political scene. Now, he aims to make India a significant player on the global stage. His plan envisions India as a central player between the United States and China, not tied to either, and able to focus on its own goals of growing its economy and expanding its global influence.

Some of the people familiar with Modi’s strategy describe India as being opportunistic, seeking opportunities amid the growing rivalry between the United States and China, as well as Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. India has chosen not to criticize the war or participate in global sanctions against Russia. Instead, it has been acquiring Russian oil and weaponry while simultaneously working to enhance its military connections with the United States. India is also straddling two groups: it’s a part of the US-supported Quad security alliance with Japan and Australia, and it’s also a member of the BRICS bloc, which includes China and Russia.

India’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, has characterized the nation’s foreign policy as a balancing act, where they aim to manage multiple aspects simultaneously while ensuring they don’t mishandle any of them.

In a 2019 lecture, he explained that to those unfamiliar or stuck in the past, the pursuit of seemingly conflicting strategies and goals might be perplexing. Instead, consider it not just as basic math but as advanced calculus.

Whatever the strategy may be, it appears to be largely effective for Modi’s government. India finds itself in a favourable geopolitical position, with the United States and its partners highlighting India as a crucial counterbalance to China. Tech giants like Apple Inc. are shifting their operations to India as they seek to diversify beyond China and tap into the expanding middle class in the world’s most populous country. Additionally, emerging powers in the Global South view India as a valuable ally for securing increased funding from wealthy nations on matters like climate change, all while avoiding taking a firm stance on Vladimir Putin’s conflict in Ukraine.

Over the past nine months, Modi has extended invitations to Russian investors to engage in India’s steel sector while also enjoying diplomatic engagements at both the White House and Emmanuel Macron’s Élysée Palace in Paris. President Joe Biden emphasized the strong partnership between India and the United States, describing them as among the world’s closest allies. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, despite not attending the G-20 summit due to the ongoing war, emphasized a “specially privileged strategic partnership” with India.

According to Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s South Asia Program said to Bloomberg, India has effectively managed the delicate balancing act of multi-alignment. This capability is influenced by significant geopolitical dynamics, particularly the ascent of China and the diminishing influence of Russia.

However, Indian officials, preferring to remain anonymous when discussing confidential discussions, admit to the fragility of what they refer to as “multi-alignment.” Even though India is seen as a pivotal player in global geopolitics, maintaining that position is becoming challenging, especially if faced with a genuine crisis such as a military conflict in Taiwan, which could render it extremely difficult to sustain.

The delicate balancing act becomes particularly evident at this week’s G-20 summit due to the notable absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi has been endeavoring to court the same group of emerging market economies in a bid to diminish US influence on a global scale.

Tensions in diplomatic relations reached a critical point last month during the BRICS summit in South Africa. India opposed proposals to enlarge the group to 11 members due to concerns that it might transform into a pro-China alliance. However, more nations sided with Xi, compelling Modi to concede and permit the inclusion of new members, including Iran, despite facing various sanctions supported by the United States.

Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, expressed to Bloomberg, that India’s involvement in BRICS was initially intended to restrain Russia and China from turning it into an anti-G-7 group. However, New Delhi did not fulfill this role effectively. This is likely to diminish India’s influence as a power capable of countering China in different geopolitical considerations.

China’s resistance to crucial elements of the G-20 communique, such as the inclusion of Sanskrit phrases, stipulations concerning emerging market debt, and the portrayal of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, poses a risk of Modi becoming the first leader to be unable to secure a consensus since the group’s establishment in 1999.

A senior Russian official suggests that the BRICS expansion offers a glimmer of hope for Moscow, anticipating greater support or at least reduced resistance at the G-20 summit. However, this potential development would not bode well for Ukraine or its allies, amplifying their frustration with India’s neutral position regarding Russia’s invasion.

According to officials within the 27-member European Union, the absence of a communique at the G-20 wouldn’t necessarily be undesirable. Officials from France and Germany emphasized that supporting India in hosting a successful G-20 is in their best interests due to India’s crucial role as a strategic partner, especially in the domains of technology and trade.

Germany, France, and Spain are collaborating with Indian shipyards to create submarines featuring an air independent propulsion system. This technology enables diesel-electric submarines to remain submerged for extended durations compared to traditional submarines. Furthermore, the European Union has established a Trade and Technology Council with India, a partnership unique to India apart from the United States, aimed at enhancing cooperation.

In economic discussions, there seems to be a disconnect. EU officials have gathered the impression that India views the bloc as a progressively less significant aging society, despite the fact that it constitutes the world’s largest single market. This perception has been reported by two individuals familiar with the discussions.

Nonetheless, the United States and its allies, including Japan, France, and Germany, have adopted a forward-looking perspective in their engagement with India, as stated by an anonymous senior official due to the sensitivity of the issue. The official emphasized that India is the sole nation in the Indo-Pacific region possessing both the economic and military capacity, along with the determination, to counter China’s growing assertiveness.

Modi has previously implemented robust measures concerning China, including app bans, tightening investment regulations, and rejecting Xi’s major global infrastructure endeavour, the Belt and Road Initiative. India’s effort to advocate for the inclusion of the African Union in the G-20, supported by the European Union, is another move aimed at countering China’s influence in the developing world. Simultaneously, it bolsters Modi’s self-proclaimed position as a leader of the Global South.

The United States has aimed to enhance economic connections with India, focusing on clean energy and defense. A notable development is the collaboration between India’s state-owned enterprise, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, and General Electric Co., to co-produce jet engines. This partnership grants India entry into an exclusive group as General Electric progressively shares technology with its Indian counterpart, based in Boston.

According to Swasti Rao, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, a research group supported by the Defence Ministry in New Delhi, l told Bloomberg, the current world order is marked by ambiguity. India is adopting a cautious stance until a clear victor emerges from the ongoing geopolitical changes. While multi-alignment might seem self-serving, Rao believes that India is making the most of the uncertainties to prioritize its national interests, a perspective that is recognized by the global community.

Sudden developments like the worsening situation in the Ukraine conflict or escalating tensions around Taiwan could increasingly challenge India’s position of neutrality. Its geographic proximity to critical chokepoints like the Malacca Strait and its extensive border with China along the Himalayas are strategic advantages that partners like the United States and other countries might seek to leverage in a wider conflict.

Currently, Modi will stress the theme of unity with the slogan “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam,” which translates to “One Earth, One Family, One Future.” However, this Sanskrit-inspired motto has generated discord, not only among certain G-20 members but also among his political adversaries in India, especially in light of the upcoming national election next year, which Modi’s party is anticipated to win once more.

Aside from the typical preparations like fresh paint and newly planted shrubs that accompany a summit, the capital is adorned with posters and billboards prominently featuring Modi’s image. The use of Sanskrit, the presence of the Shiva statue, and the lotus flower G-20 logo, which is also the symbol of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, all suggest the summit’s integration into the nationalist Hindu agenda of his government. To emphasize this, Modi replaced “India” with the ancient Sanskrit term “Bharat” on the summit’s dinner invitations.

In the lead-up to the summit, a surge in religious violence, among the most severe in years, has drawn attention to allegations of increasing human rights violations under Modi’s leadership, particularly against religious minorities like Muslims within the Hindu-majority population. Modi has largely downplayed these concerns, remarking during his visit to the United States earlier this year that he was “quite taken aback” to hear India’s commitment to democracy being questioned.

Regardless, India appears to be less preoccupied with criticism from other nations nowadays, whether it pertains to domestic challenges or the intricate geopolitical matters involving the United States, China, Russia, and other global powers.

India’s Foreign Minister, Jaishankar, stated in an interview with local broadcaster NDTV last week, “We are a nation of 1.4 billion people, and we are the fifth-largest economy. When you take a firm and confident stance, people acknowledge it. However, if you are indecisive or hesitant, the world may corner you.” (IPA Service)

(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political analyst based in Bengaluru)