Influencing Bihar Election Merely On Caste Census Promise Not Possible

Centre’s announcement of conducting national level Caste Census along with the forthcoming Census in India has intensified caste politics in Bihar, the first state to go to polls later in 2025, whose Vidhan Sabha’s term is to expire on November 22, this year. Political analysts have already claimed that by announcing the decision, PM Narendra Modi has punctured the core political plank of the INDIA bloc, called Mahagathbandhan in the state. Such a conclusion has obviously ignored the fact that Bihar voters are the most conscious and practical on caste politics in the country, who can’t be easily waylaid by mere promise.

RJD MP Manoj Kumar Jha has rightly pointed out that a reluctant government’s agreeing to a caste census is not the destination, but only the beginning, and the opposition is alert, and will watch it closely. His statement has come at a time when there is already a Mahagathbandhan conducted caste census of report of October 2023, which the PM Narendra Modi’s national caste census may supersede. Here lies the real battle line on the ground. BJP has always been opposing the caste census, and in spite of strong opposition by their leadership, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar led Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar got the caste census done which made Bihar the first state in the country in independent India to conduct caste census.

After the Bihar Caste Census report was out, Nitish Kumar switched over to join BJP. CM Nitish Kumar even said that it was not caste census but merely a caste survey. Therefore, it is obvious that Bihar’s caste survey report would be superseded by National Caste Census. There will be difference between the two, since the list of castes within Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and OBCs differs from state to state. It implies that STs, SCs and OBCs in Bihar may not be the same as the central level caste census. This uncertainty may sharpen the politics around INDIA bloc’s caste census vs BJP’s caste census.

As we know that the Bihar voters are most practical in caste politics, they are likely to stick to their old loyalties with the political parties for now, since BJP’s ruling establishment led caste census results will not be out before the Bihar elections. Centre is yet to announce the modalities of caste headcounts and the time when the Census will be conducted in the country.

There are other issues that may crop up during the Bihar election campaign, one of the most important will be the number of reserved seats for the STs and SCs on the basis of the National Census and the proposed national caste census. Bihar Vidhan Sabha has 243 assembly seats as of now, out of which 2 are reserved for STs, and 38 are reserved for SCs. The impact of national caste census on political reservation of seats is still uncertain, though it is likely to push up the reserved seats for SCs.

Nitish Kumar has been playing Dalit and Mahadalit politics for quite some time, and many of the Dalit communities have been voting in the favour of JD(U). Then there in LJP (RV) led by Chirag Paswan that gets large chunk of Dalit votes. Both are with the BJP, and hence the NDA may gain a little upper hand in Dalit politics in certain pockets.

2024 Lok Sabha election was held after the Bihar caste survey, which had adversely impacted the political fortune of BJP and JD(U), while the Mahagathbandhan that got conducted the caste survey gained. Politically caste conscious voters of Bihar taught a lesion to BJP by reducing its seat by 5, and JD(U) by reducing its seat by 4. NDA’s total loss was 9 seats. Gain for INDIA bloc’s constituent RJD 4, INC 2, and CPI(ML)L 2 seats.

Caste conscious voters did not believe in either Nitish Kumar or PM Narendra Modi. Why? Perhaps because Nitish Kumar joined hands with BJP the opposer of the Bihar Caste survey in January 2024.In November 2023 itself, Gathbandhan government had implemented 65 per cent reservation on the ground of caste survey. Which was stayed by the Patna High court just about a week before Nitish shifted his loyalty to BJP. Both Nitish and BJP became suspect that they did not handle the issue properly, and the Patna High Court ultimately struck it down in June 2024. OBCs were as suspicious of them now, as they were at that time.

As for the OBC politics, the caste census has been a product of the idea of socialist political parties and their leaders. That is why they have been the traditional beneficiaries for almost three decades. BJP has been trying to make up the loss by giving more and more prominence to the OBC leaders in the party and in ministries and other posts of profits. In spite of that, in Bihar politics, there are still socialists who have support of majority of OBCs. While Nitish Kumar has been losing their support fast, the net beneficiary seems to be the RJD and the INDIA bloc. PM Narendra Modi has tried its best to attract the OBCs by announcing caste census at national level, but this promise only may not work. BJP will need much more concrete to do for OBCs on the ground before the Bihar election.

In the meantime, political parties and their leaders in Bihar have intensified their campaign on caste census. INDIA bloc parties, especially the JD(U) and Congress has given credit to itself for the Bihar caste survey of 2023, while emphasizing that it was their campaign for social justice that enforced the hesitant PM Narendra Modi to announce caste census at national level. BJP on the other hand taking credit for announcing caste census at the national level and praising PM Narendra Modi for that.

The campaign and counter campaign of the BJP and INDIA bloc may sharpen the consciousness of the Bihar votes towards caste politics, making the electoral battle difficult for the BJP, as one can see through the caste data revealed in the Bihar caste survey. EBCs are 36.01 per cent, BCs are 27.12 per cent, SCs are 19.65 per cent, Forward castes are 15.52 per cent and Scheduled Tribes are 1.68 per cent. Backward classes are altogether 63.14 per cent whose votes are crucial for winning Bihar.

Waqf Amendment Act of 2025 has antagonised the Muslims who constituted 17.70 per cent of the population of the state, who are likely to support INDIA bloc, and the party like AIMIM may not get much of their votes.

Additionally, Bihar is currently witnessing shifting coalitions and caste equations. Nitish Kumar’s health condition may adversely impact JD(U)’s political fortune. BJP is still suspicious about alliance with Nitish on account of his track record of deserting alliances.

RJD has been successful in breaching Kurmi-Koiri united base of Nitish Kumar, as the 2024 Lok Sabha election shows. RJD’s old MY (Muslim Yadav) has been replaced by MY-BAAP ( Muslim, Yadav, Bahujan, Agda, Aadhi, Abaadi and the Poor. Splinter LJP led by Pashupati Kumar Paras has already left NDA to join INDIA bloc, which will bring a chunk of Dalit votes to INDIA bloc. These are some of the factors that make BJP’s win challenging, and there will be no cake walk for the party on merely a promise of caste census at the national level, which BCs suspect would interfere with Bihar’s own caste survey of 2023. (IPA Service)