NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar’s Succession Formula Shows Who Is The Boss

It was clear from the get-go when NCP chief Sharad Pawar decided to resign as the President a month ago. The three-day drama that saw Pawar take back his resignation as a gesture of deference to the party members now seems aimed at a predictable outcome — sidelining his nephew and de facto no 2, Ajit Pawar, to instal a member of his direct bloodline. The scripted act gave him the moral authority to appoint daughter Supriya Sule as the NCP’s working president, making it clear who will take over the mantle of the party.

Make no mistake, Praful Patel’s simultaneous appointment will likely to be temporary; merely to smoothen the jagged edges of this transition. Ajit Pawar should be only as surprised as the Senior Pawar might have been during 2019 early morning swearing-in with Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra. In power politics, players should always be prepared for such moves.

But beyond the machinations in silver Oaks bungalow, the switch holds important takeaways for Indian politics, because it’s the latest in a generation transition that India’s family– run regional parties are undergoing. Since 2013, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi have become de facto leaders of the BJP and Congress, respectively, a raft, of regional parties is undergoing the generational churn.

Some have emerged unscathed — such as M K Stalin of the DMK — and others with control over the party but diminished electoral footprint such as Akhilesh Yadav of the SP. In some, such as Bharat Rashtra Samiti or Trinamool Congress (TMC), the transition plan is clear but in progress. And in others, such as Biju Janata Dal or YSR Congress party, line of succession remains unclear.

The succession pattern in these regional parties indicate three major path ways.

The first is where the leadership transition didn’t spark any major challenge to their heir apparent (the child of the party founder). This includes the National Conference (the Abdullah family). The Rashtriya Janata Dal (Lalu Yadav family), the National people’s party (P S Sangma’s family), and the DMK (M Karunanidhi’s family), among others. There was a clear indication from the patriarch about the successor, and other family members and party leader fell in Line. The TMC appears headed this way.

In the second case, the nominated successor was challenged either from within the family or any party leader. For example, Akhilesh Yadav had to wrestle with his uncle Shivpal Yadav to take control of the SP and Manpreet Badal had to leave the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) to make way for his cousin, Sukhbir Badal. Similarly, H D Deve Gowda’s trusted Lieutenant, Siddaramaiah, couldn’t see a future for him in the Janata Dal (Secular) with the rise of H D Kumaraswamy, and joined the Congress.

In the third case, however, the succession drama consumed political parties and took toll on them. In the Shiv Sena, for example, Raj Thackeray has to first resign to make way for his cousin Uddhav Thackeray. And then, the party split vertically last year after Eknath Shinde rebelled as it became clear that Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aditya was being groomed to take control of the party.

A similar development played out in north. While Om Prakash Chautala faced no major threats when he succeed his father Chaudhary Devi Lal, his two sons could not keep party united. Today, a weakened Indian National Lok Dal is led by his younger son Abhay Singh Chautala, while his offshoot, Jananayak Janata (JPP), is under the tutelage of elder son Ajay Chautala and his son, Deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala. Similarly, the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) is still caught in a factional battle between Chirag Paswan, and his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras. (IPA Service)