Congress Has A Big Dilemma For 2024 Polls: How Far It Can Go To Restore Its Space?

Over the last year, Rahul Gandhi has been attempting political resurrection. First, via the five-month walkathon of Bharat Jodo Yatra that saw him play the role of a doughty fighter. Second, a subsequent five month spent outside of Parliament which allowed Gandhi to assume the role of a martyr.

The martyrdom parade might have been stopped by Supreme Court’s recent judgment staying Gandhi’s disqualification. Yet, the judgment also lends to Congress’ claim of unjust punishment.

From the assassination of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi to the renunciation of Sonia Gandhi, the myth of Gandhi family martyrdom has provided an essential glue to the Congress, in absence of a clear ideology.

This particular reiteration of ‘Rebranding Rahul’ has been more fruitful than earlier version. It has helped cement Gandhi’s centrality not only to the Congress but also to the larger opposition coalition. Many Congress supporters feel the stage is now set for a rejuvenated Gandhi to undertake a third and final act; the role of the primary challenger to Narendra Modi for the office of the Prime Minister.

But on this question, Congress still finds itself stuck in a quagmire. Its 2024 strategy is composed of two mutually conflicting goals; the achievement of a broad opposition unity and the recovery of the former ‘Congress space’.

Congress realizes that a presidential style ‘Rahul vs Modi’ contest, as a referendum on a national agenda, might not work favourably for it. In subsequent elections, Congress lost 171 out of the 186 seats where it battled head-to-head. Most of these seats lie in northern and central India where the popularity gap between Modi and Gandhi is still formidable. To cite an example; a recent C-voter survey in Madhya Pradesh showed 57% people to continue to repose faith in Modi as their preferred choice for PM, as opposed to a much smaller 18% who favour Rahul. Thus, a self interest pushes both the Congress and regional parties towards a shared platform against powerful incumbent, with the hope of converting the national election into a series of state elections.

It is very likely that any strident attempts by the Congress to project Gandhi as their PM candidate would scupper the goal of broad opposition unity heralded by the India alliance, at least, in its current configuration.

The disqualification had not only supercharged a shared threat perception among the opposition ranks, it had also conveniently discharged the vexed issue of the PM candidate, enabling the entry of fellow PM aspirers Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar. Thus, the reception of Gandhi’s parliamentary career does complicate the fragile political equations involving INDIA alliance

A straightforward way to assuage the anxieties of its coalition partners would be to rule Gandhi out of contention. Yet, such a renunciation of the PM office would likely to be detrimental to the second goal of Congress strategy; the recovery of the ‘Congress space’.

What do we mean by the Congress space? Simply put, if you take the Indian political space as a whole, and remove Hindu nationalism, Mandal politics and exclusive sub-nationalism, the remaining space of moderate centre-left politics is what can be termed as the Congress space.

Congress has shrivelled over last three decades because it has lost this space to many parties. It is seeking to instrumentalize the increasing national relevance of Gandhis to regain some of this. One can argue that the projection of Rahul Gandhi as PM might help the party in certain states where it faces rival claimants to this space.

The emphasis on Gandhi as a major contender for the PM office may bolster Congress’ vote share in triangular fights in Punjab, Delhi and Telangana. In the bipolar state of Kerala, the party depends substantially on Gandhi to repeat the rout of the Left in the last parliamentary elections. The aura of national leadership around him can also potentially have a marginally impact in states like UP and Bengal, partially in the mobilization of the traditionally Congress base among Muslims and Dalits. One might remember Congress had won a surprising 21 seats in UP in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, partly on account of a pronounced leadership role for Gandhi, presented as some sort of a ‘PM in waiting’. (IPA Service)