By Harihar Swarup

The general secretary of the CPI-M, Sitaram Yechury, who passed away on September 12 at the age of 72, defied all the clichés one associates with hardcore “commies”. From his appearance to his demeanour, he was like “one of us”. Meaning, he didn’t shove his ideology down anybody’s throat, nor was he judgmental about capitalists in his group. He was evolved enough to accept diverse points of view, without compromising on his own political beliefs.

With a track record as impressive as his, he could have been a pompous Marxist intellectual talking down to lesser, crassly bourgeois being. But, there he was with ready smile and a few warm words for anyone who came up to him. It was no wonder then the tributes which poured after his passing were genuinely heartfelt, even the ones from political opponent like West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee who grudgingly has to admit… “his demise will be a loss for national politics”.

Known for his witty one-liners repartees, Yechury made friends across party lines and, to the best of anybody’s knowledge, had no foes. It is so fitting that his last message from hospital was a recorded tribute to former, West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, who has passed away last month. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi Said Yechury was “fierce in his determination to protect India’s diversity and was a powerful champion of secularism.” Theirs was a friendship that began in 2004 and continued till the very end. Rahul Gandhi described him as a “protector of the idea of India”.

Given his elitist upbringing (in a Telugu Brahmin home) and education (St Stephen’s and JNU, Delhi), Yechury was epitome of sophistication and charm. Even after the CPI-M lost to Mamata’s Trinamool Congress, he soldiered on valiantly, sticking to his unshakable beliefs, even as critics predicted his party’s doom. Soft-spoken and modest, Yechury could easily have been a publicity seeking, headlines chaser but he stuck to his brand of politics, constantly reaffirming his faith in India’s secular backbone. After his demise, one particular clip was widely shared—Yechury addressing Rajya Sabha during his farewell speech, talking passionately about nation’s “syncretic” culture in Hindi-English.

The few times we met in Central hall of Parliament I was stuck by what this chilled-out man he was — communicative, affable, approachable, knowledgeable, urbane and so articulate! On a flight from Kolkata to Jamshedpur, he chatted with passengers in fluent Bengali. He spoke like long lost friends—about books, art, cinema, philosophy and, of course, politics. He spoke lovingly about his family, particularly his son Ashish, whom he tragically lost to Covid-19 in 2021. Family associates say Yechury was never the same again.

His poignant farewell speech in Rajya Sabha will be his legacy. He reminded his co-MPs that we were all custodian of an India where all religions and belief systems were equally respected. While talking to friends of Yechury, all of them spoke with admiration and respect for an icon and intellectual who spent his life demonstrating what he profoundly believed in—a more equal India, tolerant, progressive, forward-thinking and free of religious strife. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

After catching attention with her National Award winning big screen debut as Lakshmi, a low caste and morally ambiguous villager in Shyam Benegal’s Ankur 1974, Shabana Azmi has pitched out a rare feat of winning five National Awards for – Ankur, Arth (1983), Khandhar (1984), Paar (1985) and Godmother (1999)— and a masterful turn in both mainstream and arthouse movies. Azmi is arguably one of India’s most gifted actresses.

Her oeuvre ranges from embodying a lonely wife of an aristocrat in Satyajit Ray’s Shatrang Ke Khilari (1977); an over-the-top brothel owner in Mandi (1983); submissive Radha, who walks out of her stifling marriage to be united with her sister-in-law, in Fire (1996); a cunning woman pretending to be a witch in Makdee (2002); to portraying young-at-heart Jamini Chatterjee in Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahani (2023); and admiral Margaret Parangosky in American Sci-Fi series Halo (2022-2024).

The Padma Bhushan—recipient has also been a fearless activist, raising her voice against communalism, taking a stand for the welfare of slum dwellers and extending her support to remove the stigma attached with Aids. Clearly, Azmi’s choices in life have been influenced by her upbringing. Being the daughter of actor Shaukat Azmi and communist poet Kaifi Azmi, her family lived in Red Flag Hall, a communist commune in Mumbai till she was nine. Later, their home at Jan ki Kutir in suburban Mumbai would be frequented by prominent writers and artists of that time, including Faiz Ahmed Faiz, Josh Malihabad, Firaq Gorakhpuri and Begum Akhtar.

Seated in her sea-facing living room in Mumbai, Azmi, 73, looks back on her five decade

Remembering her early days she says ‘At that time, I was fresh out of the Film and Television Institute of India (FTII, Pune. The mahaul (atmosphere) was more like a theatre group working together. I was this typical St Xavier College, Mumbai, student and had never lived in village before. Shyam Benegal asked me to wear a sari and walk around the village to get it right.

Ankur received both critical and commercial success when it was released. She said

‘When we were making the film , people tried to dissuade me, saying that you ‘in your first film, you were playing an adulteress and stealing rice, I loved the grey shades in Lakshmi’s character. All along, I knew something exciting was going on. Once Ankur was released, it was like whirlwind. It was selected for the Berlin International film festival, 1974. It gave me my first National Award for the best actress. Ankur’s commercial success paved the for other arthouse films. Had I not started my career with Ankur, my career would have been on an entirely different trajectory’. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

When newcomer Arvind Kejriwal defeated three—time chief minister Sheila Dikshit in her constituency of New Delhi in 2013 assembly polls, jubilant supporters took to streets, hailing the moment when a common man got an opportunity to master electoral politics. Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party soon became the premier force in Delhi politics. In less than a decade, it extended its sway to one more state by winning the Punjab assembly elections in 2022, becoming the only regional party to be in power in two states. Growing footprint and ambitions in states like Goa, Assam, Haryana and Gujarat further catapulted the AAP into the non-BJP, non-congress political space and raised the profile of its charismatic leader.

However, the arrest of Kejriwal by the CBI in March this year could not have come at a worse time for the party. After recording a below average performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the AAP was banking on release of their leader from jail in the money laundering case of the Enforcement Directorate to go back to drawing board. Despite dominating the Delhi assembly for a decade, the party failed to open its account in the capital, losing all Parliament seats to the BJP, third time a row. The massive loss has dented the credibility of the AAP as a national player and of Kejriwal as a national leader.

The Punjab story, too, did not go as expected as the AAP could win only three seats against Congress’s seven. While the party’s vote share increased to 26 per cent, it had 42 per cent vote share, and 92 seats in the 2022 assembly polls, which allowed it to form government. The AAP’s candidates in Assam, Haryana and Gujarat failed to open the account.

“With Kejriwal in jail and the AAP’s ordinary performance in the Lok Sabha elections, these are very difficult times for the party and it may adversely impact its expansion plans”, said Sajjan Kumar, professor and co-director of Lokniti at the Centre for the study of Developing societies.

“The situation has posed a tough political challenge for the AAP, which faces Assembly elections in Delhi next”.

Kejriwal has been on a legal roller coaster since June 21 when a Delhi court granted bail in ED case, only to put on hold by the Delhi High Court a day later. Just he was looking to secure bail from Supreme court, the CBI arrested him in the same case on June 26.. It has opened a new battlefront for the AAP as Kejriwal faces corruption charges under the Prevention of Corruption Act. In 2022, when the CBI first registered a case under the Act in the liquor policy scam, it did name Kejriwal as an accused. But the net has been widened with the CBI probing charges of corruption and bribe taking by public servants, while the ED is separately investigating the alleged money trail in the case.

The CBI is examining the role of Delhi group of ministers (GOM) consisting of senior AAP leaders including former deputy chief Manish Sisodia, in tweaking the policy to allegedly benefit the “South liquor lobby”, referring to a group of influential persons from south India. The role of chief minister’s office is also under cloud as CBI sleuths are examining evidence against Kejriwal’s close aide Vijay Nair who was allegedly given responsibility to coordinate the meeting with ‘south group’. The CBI said the report prepared by aides became policy in which profit margins were increased from six percent to 12 percent.

AAP is a one leader based party. The senior leaders who helped in the formation of AAP twelve years back, mostly differed with Kejriwal and left the party. With Kejriwal in prison, the work for the assembly polls in 2025 is being adversely affected. Already AAP has earned a bad name by losing all seats in Lok Sabha polls in Delhi. It is imperative for the party to win the 2025 Delhi assembly elections just like 2013, 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. Much depends on the release of the Delhi chief minister from the prison. For AAP, there is no alternative leadership as of now excepting the imprisoned party supremo. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Puducherry is said to be the BJP’s plan B to get a foothold in the Dravida land. But it took a serious hit in the Lok Sabha elections when its candidate in the lone constituency in the union territory, home minister A. Namassivayam, suffered a humiliating loss against the Congress’s V. Vaithilingam. And the poll debacle has led to a rebellion within the party, putting the N. Rangaswamy-led coalition government in trouble.

In the 30-member assembly, N Rangaswamy’s All India N R Congress (10 seats) and the BJP (6) are in coalition, which is supported by six independent and three nominated legislators. The DMK- Congress alliance has eight MLAs, six and two each.

Some BJP MLAs and independents have asked to fix accountability for the defeat. A Johnkumar, his son V. A. Richards Johnkumar and P M L Kalyansundaram along with Independents P. Angalane, G. Srinivas Ashok and nominated member K. Venkatesh reportedly called on BJP President J P Nadda in Delhi. Apparently, Johnkumar wanted the central leadership to make all of them ministers on a rotational basis, which was promised when Namassivayam and Johnkumar left the Congress for the BJP ahead of the assembly election in 2021.

“Our intention is not to rebel against the Rangaswamy government as projected outside,” said Johnkumar. “We want our leaders at the Centre to honour the commitment made in 2021.”

Two of BJP’s six MLAs are ministers—Namassivayam and A K Sai J Saravanan Kumar. A third one Embalam is the speaker. “The Central leadership should either replace Namassivayam and Kumar with those who have been left out or should provide only outside support to the AINRC government. Only then can the BJP come to power in Puducherry”, said a party leader. Johnkumar’s supporters attribute Namassivayam’s defeat to his poor performance as minister.

The BJP, however, is downplaying the development. Nirmal Kumar Surana, who oversees Puducherry, said nobody had complained about anything to him. “The MLA met the party President and Union Health Minister J P Nadda to discuss development plans for the Union Territory”, he said.

But the rebel MLAs say Surana does not understand Puducherry politics. “We have sought an appointment with Home Minister Amit Shah. We will meet him and explain our views on the reasons for the defeat in the Lok Sabha election,” said one of them. The rebel MLAs are also said to have apprised the Central leadership about alleged corruption in the Rangaswamy government.

Rangaswamy, however, dismissed the development as BJP’s internal issue. “It is their intra-party feud. Let them solve it themselves”, he said. When asked about the poor governance charges made by the BJP legislator, he said the government was “functioning properly”. “We have delivered on our promises”, he said.

Rangaswamy believes that the BJP legislators are fighting among themselves for ministerial berths. Sources close to him said he would not oblige to any request for cabinet reshuffle now. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Suddenly Rahul Gandhi is the flavour of season. If you look at the hard data, the BJP lost only 1.2% of the popular vote share, and the Congress gained 1.49 %. It is not as if whopping numbers swayed from one side to the other. The BJP still has 240 seats despite being in power for ten years with majority, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pre-poll alliance of the NDA has moved into his third term in office.

This was not the case with Congress—led UPA after its ten-year stint in power (2004-14). This time Congress was lucky that the rise in its vote share translated into more seats, nearly doubling its numbers from 52 to 99. But the story goes beyond the data—and the situation has changed broadly in three ways.

First, Rahul Gandhi has taken on the Leader of Opposition (LOP) post and opted to lead the Congress from the front–unlike after earlier results. For 41 months, till Mallikarjun Kharge took over as the party chief in 2022, there was no full time President of India’s grand old party. It seemed to be waiting for Gandhi to make up his mind. After he stepped down as party President following the Congress’s 2019 debacle, Sonia Gandhi stepped in as interim President. But behind the scenes, Rahul Gandhi continued to take all major decisions.

Today, as LOP, he will deal with the Prime Minister and Home Minister Amit Shah on committees to select to Central Vigilance Commissioner and the CBI director, for example, apart from engaging the government on a host of issues. He will also need to plan the nuts and bolts of the Congress’s strategy in Parliament, ensuring that complaints against them about inaccessibility are not repeated. He has to open his doors to not just party colleagues but also leaders of INDIA parties.

The question is on Who against Modi? appears to have been settled for now. Many opposed to the NDA government now see Gandhi as the answer. While this tricky issue has not been formally addressed by the INDIA bloc, it may not need to tackle this for some time to come. Barring possibly Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress and Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party, Gandhi appears to have settled into a good rapport with other chieftains, such as Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi party, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD , M K Stalin of the DMK and Uddhav Thackeray of his Shiv Sena. At the moment, most of them are occupied with retaining ground in their own states.

Gandhi is also the face of a robust Opposition in Parliament, as was visible in the first short session with the Congress MPs enjoying new space that has opened up for them following BJP’s shrunken numbers.

The recent release of INDIA partner and JMM leader Hemant Soren on bail and the possible early release of Arvind Kejriwal will act as a booster for te opposition ranks.

The third facet of the new Gandhi is his visibility on the ground, in some way an extension of his Bharat Jodo yatra. Since the Lok Sabha results came, he has paid visits to Gujarat (after some congress workers were injured in clash with the BJP), Manipur (to meet victims of the internal conflict in state), Hathras (to meet the victims of the recent stampede) Assam (to meet victims of recent floods), and Rae Bareli (his constituency, where he also visited the family of an army officer who died in Siachen): he has also met railway loco pilots to talk about their workers conditions, after recent accident . He is on the move and to the politically important places..He is acting as the shadow Prime Minister. That is what matters in his fight against the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Rahul is 20 years younger to the PM Modi. He is better placed to symbolize the aspirations of an emerging India. His political performance in the next few years will be crucial in determining the course of his political destiny. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

A seed of an idea is all you need for success. Sathya Shankar K. would know for there is a , tiny seed at the heart of his success story. His life got a kick-start in 1984.

At only 18, Shankar had applied for an auto-rickshaw driving license. But it was more than just a driving license; it was his license to dream big. The third of four sons of a poor village priest in Bellaire in Karnataka’s Dakshina Kannada district, he had to drop out after class 12 for want of funds. With a driving license in hand, he brought auto rickshaw on Central government’s self-employment scheme. That autorickshaw was only the beginning of his incredible journey.

Today, Shankar owns a company with an annual turnover of Rs.800 crores. His group SG group, headquartered in Puttur in Dakshina Karnataka, has several verticals—from Praveen Capital to Megha Fruit Processing Private Limited. It sells 55 products, from packaged water to snacks. In last four decades, he has experimented with various business models and , tasted success with each. He took the adage ‘experience is the best teacher’s quality” literally, using every business venture to level up.

From the beginning, Shankar has had a keen eye for business, even during his autorickshaw driving three-wheeler for an Ambassador car. The autorickshaw was limiting his dreams and rides—he could only drive around Dakshina Karnataka district. But in the Taxi, he could take tourists beyond district and state lines. It was then that he observed the product that every foreign tourist bought—packaged drinking water. It has become a prominent product of his company.

In 1988, Shankar sold his faithful Ambassador after realizing that selling spare parts of cars was more lucrative than driving one. Also, there was no such shop in or around Puttur. Once he set up the automobile shop, he observed another trade in demand — sale of vehicle tyres. A year later came the tyre outlet. Thus he took up ventures one after another making his company a multifaceted covering areas where the demand is big. That incredible journey still continues. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The first session of the 18th Lok Sabha has just concluded where an unprecedented level of acrimony was witnessed. Since this session was held immediately after the general elections, the mood during the electioneering, it appears, was carried into the house as was reflected in the speeches made from both sides. Few speakers referred to the issues, included or not included in President’s address. Fuel was added to the fire by the tone and tenor of the speech made by leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha.

In Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi’s speech set the tone of further discussion in both the houses, particularly that of the replies to be given by the Prime Minister. The opposition members continuously shouted slogans in the Lok Sabha obstructing the Prime minister’s speech and they walked out of Rajya Sabha when he spoke there next day. Booing the Prime Minister during speech was worrying. So was the walk out by the opposition parties without listening to the Prime Minister. Both these acts by the Opposition are undeniably does not conform to basic canons of parliamentary democracy.

In Parliament, the right to speak should be balanced with respect for opposing view points and parliamentary decorum. Disagreements can and should be expressed through debate and discussion rather than through disruptive tactics that prevent others from exercising their right to speak. In a deliberate context, the right to be heard and duty to listen, are inseparable; in a deliberative context,; they are two sides of a democratic coin.

Expressing of dissent , no doubt, is in built in the working of any parliament, provided it is within the ambit of rules and practices of any house. Any gross violation is punishable. Any gross attempt to shout down a member of Parliament while speaking,.. And attempt, leave alone the Prime Minister who is also leader of house, is unacceptable and needs to be discouraged. More so, when Prime Minister gave full respect to the Leader of Opposition and sat and listened to his entire speech in Lok Sabha with calm and poise. In the same spirit, the opposition in the Rajya Sabha also should have sat and listened to what the PM had to say. Failing to do that amounted to the opposition shirking its responsibility.

The office of the Leader of the opposition has been associated with the highest traditions in India. Occupants of the office are expected to have procedure, conventions etc. They must not be seen to be instigating others to go to the well of the house and disrupt proceedings. They should avoid making defamatory or unsubstantial allegations that may be contradicted inside or outside the house. The Leader of the Opposition represents not only his party but also entire opposition in the house. So much so, in some countries he is seen as the shadow PM. Therefore, he has to be much more careful and responsible in what he says and how he behaves in the house. (IPA Service)

The article First Session Of 18th Parliament Showed Opposition In Poor Light appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Harihar Swarup

Many things have been said about the first verbal skirmish in Parliament’s 18th session between NDA Government and opposition, or more specifically between Leader of 0ppsition, Rahul Gandhi, and Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. The most commonly heard comment is that opposition has finally found its voice, and government, now cannot steamroll anything through Parliament.

It is good to have a strong opposition, just as it is good to have a competing government, but what the first “debate” over motion of thanks to the speech of the President revealed was something more worrisome: the visceral dislike both Modi and Rahul have for one another: mirroring the divisiveness that is politically explicit between BJP and Congress and its “secular” allies.

This personal dislike for each other goes back to the 2002 Gujarat riots, when Modi was declared an object of hate by the Congress and secular opposition. No amount of exoneration by legal system has changed this perception, and alleged hate culture and Rahul was able to directly harp on BJP’s alleged hate culture in his speech. For their part, Modi and BJP have been aggressively critical of the Nehruvian legacy and Rahul’s rise to prominence based on its linage. For a while, this characterization worked well for BJP /NDA, as Rahul was seen as “Pappu”, someone with no political gravitas. BJP also used Rahul’s “Pappu” status as a useful contrast to Modi’s own personality. BJP partisans saw this as a no contest and indirectly promoted a Modi-Rahul comparison to vindicate their position.

The old adage, be careful what you wish for, for it may come true, applies here. After years of demanding a Prime Ministerial face from Congress, it is now reasonably clear that Rahul could be that face and it is not the face of Pappu.

Even before he started shedding his Pappu status, Rahul had the ability to get under the BJP’ skin. As early as 2015, he managed to rile on government by calling it a “suit, boot ki Sarkar” and later doubled down on this allegation by directly naming industrialist Adani.

Among other things, Rahul said in his debut speech as LoP that Modi and Amit Shah do not care what is happening in Manipur, and that neither of them (and their party) was a Hindu by his definition. PM, for his part, spoke of legal cases faced by Rahul, and how his party is riding on voters of its allies rather than his own strength. He referred to LoP’s speech as infantile (Balak Buddhi).

Even assuming Rahul’s remarks on Hinduism and BJP were only aimed at labelling BJP and Sangh Parivar as hate-driven, those bits of his speech went too far. Contrast these comments with his own assertion some time ago and that his secular ally, Muslim League, was “secular” party. Sangh may not represent all Hindus, but it deserves legitimate social and political space for canvassing its own version of nationhood, which Rahul may disagree with. (IPA Service)

The article Narendra Modi And Rahul Gandhi – Never The Twain Shall Meet appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Harihar Swarup

The RSS hints at the course correction from the BJP and Modi government 3.0, which it wants to be reflected in the choice of new party president.
The third tenure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi got off to a turbulent start. A series of unrelated events — paper leaks, a train accident and terror attacks — within a week of his government swearing -in thrust the government into crisis management mode. Additionally, the BJP’s ideological mentor, the RSS, appears to have conveyed a message of “course correction” as the ruling party did not secure a majority of its own in the Lok Sabha elections.
The RSS message delivered publicly, often couched as advice to every Swayamsevak, meant that it was heard within the parivar. It started with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat addressing the trainees in Nagpur, a day after Modi government was sworn-in. Bhagwat’s insistence on peace in strife- torn Manipur was seen as call for action by the government.
He spoke of adherence to decorum during election and using consensus to engage with the opposition. “ A true Sevak maintains dignity”, he said to the trainees,” “He follows decorum while working. He does not have arrogance to say, ‘I did this work’. Only that person can be called a true sevak,” It was interpreted by many as a shot at the Swayamsevak who heads the government. Senior RSS leader Indresh Kumar’s subsequent jibe that arrogance restricted the BJP to 240 seats further amplified it.
The RSS-inclined publication Organiser , which analysed the 2024 results, also highlighted weaknesses in the BJP’s messaging and strategy, particularly in not listening to feedback from the cadres and inducted tainted leaders into the fold.
As the controversy swirled in Delhi’s power corridors, several sangh commentators argued that Bhagwat’s message caused a stir because of its timing, but noted that he had expressed similar views earlier too. “But what Indraeshji said, we are not sure of his motivation, but he retracted it earlier”, said a Sangh insider.
When it comes to such statements, it is not a one way street. During the Lok Sabha elections BJP President J P Nanda had said that his party had grown to a degree that it did not need the RSS anymore. “The statement should have been clarified in time, which was not done”, RSS leader Ram Madhav had said. Nadda’s words signaled to the Sangh cadres that they were not needed during the election, which led to confusion on the ground.
For outsiders, it might appear as a schism between mentor and mentee, but for insiders it is a nudge for action. The last two terms of the BJP government marked substantial rise of the RSS.
Relations were cordial between the two and views were exchanged through the regular coordination meetings.
As controversy erupted after the poll results, the BJP dismissed any talk of differences with its ideological mentor. “ The BJP and the RSS are part of same ideological mentor parivar”, said BJP spokesman Gopal Krishna Agarwal. “Various organizations of the Parivar are independently working in their respective fields, be it labour, education, tribal areas, youth, farmers etc, but the objective of a strong and vibrant nation is common” .
It is a fact that RSS, though worried, know the indispensability of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister. He has a massive supporting base outside BJP and Sangh Parivar.
RSS’s phenomenal growth in the last attributed to Modi rule. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat wants Modi to rule but in consultations with the RSS leadership on key issues. The RSS will see that the next BJP President is nominated after talking to Sangh Parivar leaders, not thrust by Narendra Modi on his own. That way, the selection of the next BJP President replacing the incumbent J P Nadda will be of political significance. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

A contested election for the post of Lok Sabha Speaker is a sign of a broadening divide between treasury and opposition benches. Before Independence contests for the position of president (equivalent of modern-day speaker) were quite common. In the first election in 1925, Vithal Bhai Patel defeated his government nominee by two votes. He went on to lay the institutional foundations for the independence of the Speaker’s office.

The next exciting contest was in 1946. In this election, the colonial government thought its nominee would win. But to its surprise, its supporting members cross voted, leading to G V Mavalankar’s election by a margin of three votes. Government was incensed and wanted to examine the ballot papers to identify which of its members had voted Mavalankar. Anticipating such an eventuality Assembly secretary destroyed ballot papers.

In a parliamentary democracy where Government is answerable to the legislature, a non-partisan speaker is critical. It’s one of the most challenging offices. It combines constitutional responsibility with a political milestone. When the electoral verdict is that of a majority government, speaker has to ensure adequate space for minority voices and not allow the government to ride roughshod over them.

In a coalition scenario, speakers are under pressure from their party to secure government’s continuity and ensure the passage of its legislative business. Speakers have to walk a fine line, where they are not with any side but belong to the entire house. In both these situations, speaker must ensure that the House fulfils the Constitutional mandate of a deliberative legislature.

In 1952, when Mavalankar became the Speaker of the first Lok Sabha, he started the convention to ensure Speaker’s impartiality. In his acceptance speech as Speaker, he highlighted the British convention about Speakership, “the principle of which is that, once a speaker, he is not opposed by any party in the matter of his election, whether in the Constituency or in the house, so long as he wishes to continue as Speaker”.

He championed this issue in parliamentary forums and pushed it with Congress party. The party, however, felt that “this was not a feasible proposition for the present in view of other political parties being involved in the question. “Since then the practice has been that political parties come to a consensus, and speaker (usually from the majority party is elected unanimously)”.

Part of the consensus-building exercise is that the post of Deputy Speaker often goes to opposition benches.

Over the years, the job of the Speaker has become more complex and contentious. His responsibility is to conduct the proceedings of the House on the colonial principle that Government will decide agenda for the debate in the national legislature. The rules of both the houses of Parliament also prescribe that Govt. business also takes priority. As if this were not enough in 1985, the anti-defection law gave Speakers powers to decide on the party whip and for anti-party activities. They could now make or break parties and ruling governments..

Some of these structural issues have become more prominent now. They have led to successive governments shying away from uncomfortable debate in Parliament, and ministers are requesting the Speaker to exercise his/her discretion in fast-tracking government business through LS Limited space for Opposition and inadequate scrutiny of government bills by parliamentary committees have become a bone of contention between Government and the Opposition benches. Speaker’s decisions in state assemblies under anti- defection law have also tainted the office. There is apprehension that some of the unhealthy practices in states might find their way to parliament. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

“I am strict and I may be stern but I’m always fair and transparent. You get what you see”. This is one side. This was how T N Seshan, arguably, the Chief Election Commissioner who made the Election Commission of India an admired institution, used to describe himself. Then he would add “whilst I sit on this chair I have a job to do and I’ll do it to the best of my ability. Wild horses can’t stop me”. No wonder he was fondly called “Bulldog Seshan”. It was a moniker he revelled in.

Alas, the Commission of today behaves like a very different animal. It is more obedient to the centre than a watchdog. if you want to extend the analogy. It seems to have forgotten the need for fairness and transparency. It is no longer determined to do its job even in the teeth of fierce resistance. Instead it seeks the easy way out.

A month has lapsed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Banswara speech—in fact, in seven days from now voting will be concluded – but the commission has barely acted in response to a accusation of the PM blatantly breaching the model code as well as Representation of people Act.. No action has been taken against the Prime Minister for his repeated blatant hate speeches..

Unlike the case of K Chandrashekhar Rao, A Raja, Supriya Shrinate and Randeep Surjeewala, the EC decided not to issue a notice directly to Modi. Instead, it wrote to BJP President J P Nadda on the filmsy ground that Modi is party’s star campaigner. The notice did not mention the PM by name or designation. Only the annexed documents did that. When the party failed to respond on the specific date, it readily agreed to extend by one week more. Even after receiving a response, the Commission is in no hurry to take a decision. This deliberate prevarication suggests it is playing for time.

Meanwhile, what has the PM done? On virtually a daily basis, he has been continue to demonize Muslims in Hindu eyes with repeated allegations that reservation intended for OBC, STs, and SCs will be snatched and given to them. Even mangal Sutras and streedhan — and if you have two buffaloes, one of them — will be grabbed and given to Muslims.

Is this not compounding his original breach by careful and deliberate repetition? Is it not disregard for and defiance of the commission’s model code of conduct?

All the commission seems to be able to do is sit back, listen and twiddle its thumbs. Why has it not taken tougher action? Why has it not moved to act least, the BJP for this continued, actually ceaseless defiance? Article 324 of the constitution, gives it all the powers it requires. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

From a popular anti-corruption star, a populist leader to battling corruption charges himself, the arrest of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Enforcement Directorate in the liquor policy case marks another dramatic episode in the large arc of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief.

Kejriwal shot to fame a decade ago as an anti-corruption activist — making Anna Hazare sit on two high profile hunger strikes in Delhi in 2011 — demanding a Jan Lokpal to rein in corruption and accusing “all politicians” of corruption. With day-long media coverage, Anna and Kejriwal became a sensation, denting the then UPA government in the process. However, to great extent, BJP with a large organization—the party had had been very cautious at the time of Anna movement—took full advantage of the anti-Congress mood in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, with Narendra Modi as its PM candidate.

Meanwhile, Kejriwal formed AAP with a promise of leading a clean government that will work for the people. He tasted early success in Delhi in the 2013 assembly elections—winning 28 seats out of 70 and defeating sitting chief minister Sheila Dikshit of the Congress. The BJP got 32 seats in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal but could not garner a majority. AAP threw the first surprise by becoming CM with the support of the Congress, which had eight seats. Forty-nine days later, he dramatically resigned on the ground that the Delhi Assembly was stone walling his Jan Lokpal Bill.

Kejriwal now took a ‘national’ turn, deciding to contest Lok Sabha poll against Narendra Modi from Varanasi in 2014. He lost by a margin of about 2.7 lakh votes, but stood second, bagging 2.09- lakh votes. This raised his profile further.

Early in 2015, AAP posted a spectacular result in the Delhi assembly polls, winning 67 of 70 seats, with the BJP winning just three and the Congress drawing a blank. Kejriwal threw out Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav from the party within months of the victory on grounds of “anti-party activities”. Bhushan decried this as dictatorship, and said the party has been reduced to a ‘Khap’.

Kejriwal’s image was fast changing from that of a democrat to someone who wanted to control the party through favourities. However, the power and water subsidies continued – he claimed to have improved the condition of government schools and the health care system in Delhi from 2014 to 2019 – thus becoming a populist leader focusing on service-delivering with ideology agnosticism. The Lokpal demand gradually disappeared altogether,

Despite his popularity, he could not win a single seat in Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, with BJP sweeping all seven. In the 2020 Delhi Assembly polls, AAP again won Delhi, bagging 62 seats. The BJP won just eight.

But that wasn’t all. Kejriwal was able to expand beyond Delhi and post a stunning victory in Punjab in 2022 assembly polls winning 92 of 118 seats and reducing the Congress to just18. He also made a dent in Gujarat, winning five seats in the assembly polls out of 182, with the Congress winning 17. The BJP swept the polls with 156 seats.

This makes the AAP a possible future challenge to the BJP, which is right now in pole position. But the BJP leadership has shown it is willing to nip the party in the bud before it expands further by attacking its only leader of stature for alleged corruption. Delhi Chief Minister was finally arrested on March 21 night by the Enforcement Directorate of the Modi government and put in ED custody till March 28. The legal battle will continue, but the moot question is how the people of Delhi and Punjab will react in the ballot box at the time of the coming Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Among the most unexpected entrants in the BJP’s first list of Lok Sabha nominees is Bansuri Swaraj, the 40-year-old daughter of the BJP’s Sushma Swaraj, for whom the late BJP leader was known to leave meetings at times, to rush to be at the bus-stop when Bansuri returned from school.

The choice of Bansuri has taken many by surprise, including those in the BJP, not only because she is a virtual newcomer to politics, but also because the BJP top-brass picked up a newbie for the high-profile New Delhi parliamentary constituency. And it doesn’t matter that Sushma Swaraj was a protégé of L K Advani, who had opposed Narendra Modi’s projection as the BJP candidate for the PM post in 2014.

It is clear that the BJP leadership is unhappy with Meenakshi Lekhi, who was seen to have lost ground in New Delhi after winning the seat twice, in 2014 and 2019. Given that women will be a decisive vote in 2024, wooed by every party and the Modi government going out of its way to underline “Nari Shakti”, the BJP appears to have been careful to pick a woman leader to replace Lekhi in the prestigious seat.

In Delhi, the BJP has ditched four out of its five MPs in the seats for which tickets have been announced so far, with two names still pending (it had won all seven seats in 2019). The BJP appears to be plugging any loopholes given that the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress are contesting together in Delhi and, on paper, make a formidable coalition.

With Bansuri’s nomination, the BJP appears to have set the tone for the polls in the capital. If she manages to defeat the AAP’s Somnath Bharti, who is himself a stronger contender, she will establish herself as a giant killer; with the victory to be construed additionally as a rap for AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, who is an MLA from the New Delhi Assembly segment.

So far, Bansuri, a practicing lawyer, has impressed, proving both confident and articulate in the few interventions she has made on the party’s behalf on TV. Those who still recall Sushma’s oratory skills will draw an easy connection with the daughter. The late leader, in fact, was only 25 when she first became a minister, in Haryana, and was among the top campaigners against Indira Gandhi during Emergency and after.

Old-timers, especially, recall Sushma’s felicity in striking a rapport with women in villages, who don’t easily open up. One of her ways was to ask, generally, in a crowd. “Are there women here named Kaushalya (a reference to lord Ram’s mother in the Ramayan)?” Several hands would go up automatically. Then she would ask if there were women called Sumitra (Lakshman’s mother). When hands went up again, Sushma would let drop: “Is there anyone who has named her daughter Kaikeyi (Dashrath’s third wife, besides Kaushalya and Sumitra, who manipulated her husband to banish Lord Ram to exile, and make her own son Bharat the king)?”

When the answer came back with a resounding ‘No”, Sushma would let the penny drop. Indira Gandhi had behaved like Kaikeyi, she would imply to “enthrone” her son Sanjay at the cost of others. The audience would nod in appreciation.

While Sushma contested elections from many parts, including Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh and more famously Bellary in Karnataka taking on Sonia Gandhi in her first- ever polls—she is remembered as well, for her short stint as CM. In 2019, an ailing Sushma did not get a ticket for the Lok Sabha election and was neither offered a ministry. She died soon after in August 2019.

Whatever the number entails, BJP leaders point out, what it all boils down to is winnability, and winnability alone. That is why 42 sitting MPs have been dropped in the first list of 195 names. And, that is why many sitting MPs who were facing the party’s ire have got a ticket again in UP. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The Rajya Sabha elections have stirred a political commotion, not only because of cross-voting, as has often taken place in the past, but also because the BJP is out to get every seat it can and the defeat of the official Congress candidate in Himachal Pradesh and a Samajwadi Party (SP) nominee in Uttar Pradesh are being viewed as attempts to demoralize a downhearted Opposition on the eve of Lok Sabha polls.

The defeat of Abhishek Manu Singhvi, the Congress candidate for the only seat in Himachal Pradesh that was up for grabs, took many by surprise for it wasn’t expected to become a close contest. The Congress was far ahead of the BJP with 43 MLAs on its side and only 25 legislators of the opposition party arrayed against Singhvi. In the lead-up to the election, Singhvi had openly hinted at the possibility of the BJP weaning away Congress MLAs.

Then, why and how did the Congress fail to manage the situation staring it in the face? Was it only a factional war in the party? The party is, after all, in power in the state with all the advantages that power brings with it. In contrast, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivkumar, who were also in power, managed things in the Southern state and ensured all three Congress nominees were elected to the Upper House despite attempts by the BJP and its ally Janata Dal (Secular) to queer the pitch.

When it seemed that the Congress might be on the verge of losing the government in Shimla – Singhvi’s defeat raised questions about its majority in the assembly – the party’s leadership swung into action and pulled the government back from the brink, at least for the moment.

As these developments unfolded and the Prime Minister made a pitch for 370 seats for the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, sitting in the heart of the country’s financial capital, Mumbai, where reporters spoke to people in the corporate world, from fund managers to business honchos.

In the past, they used to speak in favour of economic continuity and political stability, and India’s march towards becoming the world’s third largest economy. They still do. But this time there was a tinge of worry in the tone of some. They asked why the Prime Minister was focusing too much on winning 370 seats — it would constitute a two-thirds majority — and they talked of the manner in which the Rajya Sabha elections were contested.

The larger questions aside, there was a time when the Rajya Sabha acted as the House of Elders. Those who entered its halls were not directly elected but would caution, alert, strike high notes, hold out a vision for the country, and give sensible advice for the larger good, away from the immediate pulls and pressures that a Lok Sabha member is subjected to.

Today, the Rajya Sabha has become an “Akhara” of battles that break up parties. It is a story of inducement and mandates being violated. And many believe it is a trend that is going to be tough to reverse. Sonia Gandhi is one of the 41 MPs elected unopposed to the Upper House from Rajasthan this time. After being in the Lok Sabha for 25 years. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP) Chairperson, decided to give up the Raebareli seat of the Nehru-Gandhi family.

Among Raebareli’s former MPs were her mother-in-law Indira Gandhi and father-in-law Feroze Gandhi. Given that of India’s 14 PMs, eight have been from UP, it was not surprising that Narendra Modi decided to contest from Varanasi in 2014. For, it is a fact that the road to Delhi has more often than not passed through Uttar Pradesh. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

As Bangladesh prepares for its 12th parliamentary polls on January 7, speculation abounds on the impact of the election outcome on Dhaka’s relationship with Delhi. From historic landmarks such as the 2015 land boundary agreement to lows during 2001-2006, when a coalition led by the current Opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was in office, India-Bangladesh relations have gone through periodical ups and downs. Bangladesh emerged as India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia crossing $15 billion in 2022 and is a major recipient of Indian foreign direct investment, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2021. The strengthening of economic ties highlights pragmatic considerations that go beyond political rhetoric and challenge simplistic binaries.

The ruling Awami League (AL) in Bangladesh is historically perceived as closely aligned with India, while the BNP is thought to harbour anti-India sentiments. A deeper look reveals an intricate tapestry of cooperation and conflict underpinning the ties. The widely held belief that the AL and India share a deep ideological affinity, at times oversimplifies a relationship grounded on strategic realities and mutual interests.

Dhaka’s collaboration with Delhi in cracking down on insurgents operating from Bangladesh, for instance, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), is cited as evidence of the political alignment of AL with the Indian political establishment. However, the reality is more complex as the Sheikh Hasina government faced challenges from radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB). It was a convergence of mutual interests, especially safeguarding the stability of both the border and internal security.

Landmark agreements, such as the 2015 land boundary agreement, are indicative of a relationship founded on pragmatism rather than ideological camaraderie. Similarly, the coastal shipping deal in 2015 opened new sea routes, boosting bilateral trade volumes, while the 2017 international rail links deal restored crucial railway links, improving overall connectivity and trade relations.

However, challenges persist. The Teesta water-sharing agreement remains unresolved, hindered by domestic opposition in West Bengal. The Tipaimukh Dam project raises Bangladesh’s concern about downstream impacts, with environmental assessments yet to allay fears. Border killings, allegedly due to the excessive use of force by security forces, continue to be a recurring issue. The AL’S alignment with India, oversimplified as a political and ideological embrace, is in reality rooted in a pragmatic understanding of shared strategic interests. The complexities of their collaboration, as evidenced by successes as well as ongoing challenges, underscore the need for a more balanced perspective on this crucial relationship in South Asia.

Apprehensions of an anti- India backlash in the event of a BNP coming to power — the BNP has now decided to boycott the elections — are based on historical precedents and nationalistic rhetoric. The BNP’S 2001-2006 term in office saw a rise in radical Islamist groups like Harkat-ul Jihad and JMB, fostering concerns over increased anti- India attacks and strained bilateral relations. However, a nuanced examination unveils complexities as the BNP is not a monolithic entity and has both moderate and hardline factions, with varying stances on India. This dynamic is underscored by events like the 2004 arms haul in Chittagong, revealing a massive cache of weapons that raised questions about illicit arms trafficking, further complicating ramifications for regional stability as then Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi alleged that the arms consignment was meant for the separatist ULFA guerrillas operating in the state.

During an interview in 2014, when asked what she would have done differently than Sheikh Hasina on relations with India, BNP leader Khaleda Zia said: “Unlike the Awami League government, I would have sought mutuality of gains in our bilateral relations in all areas… A future BNP government will encourage greater people-to-people contact… to diversify our relations and cooperation in all fields”.

Moving beyond a simplistic pro- and anti- India binary is imperative in understanding Bangladesh’s political landscape. The AL, despite fostering friendly ties with Delhi, has given priority to Bangladesh’s economic interests and welcomed infrastructure projects financed by China, India’s foremost regional rival. Similarly, the BNP’S strong rhetoric is sobered by pragmatic acknowledgement of economic interdependence. Recognising these complexities is essential for a better understanding of the dynamics that shape Bangladesh’s political leadership relations with India.

A foundation of clear-eyed, fact-based assessments of each other’s policies and actions is indispensable to improving Delhi Dhaka relations. Communication channels engaging various political parties and stakeholders across borders can help dispel misgivings and misperceptions. Shared interests in regional trade, investment, connectivity, energy cooperation, climate resilience, maritime security, and economic integration should serve as the cornerstone of collaboration. This is an opportune moment for the leadership in both countries to reflect a vision that is progressive and mutually beneficial, recognising the nuanced interplay of economic, strategic, and demographic factors for both India and Bangladesh. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The INDIA alliance meeting in Delhi is broadly an effort at political resuscitation. For three months, the opposition formation had virtually suspended such strategic level dialogue, as the Congress prioritised the assembly elections. Talk of crucial loss of momentum. INDIA’s leading partner Congress stands devastated after losing in three states to the BJP, reinforcing perception of BJP’s dominance of the crucial Hindi belt. The scale of the mountain the opposition is forced to climb appears quite forbidding. So let’s start with a few points of consolidation for the opposition.

One, Congress losses are good for INDIA: These might paradoxically accelerate the process of forging crucial agreements over seat-sharing, as a humbled Congress and assertive allies now appear on more than equal footing. Sure, there was an initial round of recriminations, which included a deferred alliance meeting as SP, TMC, and JDU leaders refused to attend, expressing frustration with the Congress’s unilateralism. But most parties have now struck more conciliatory poses, particularly after the Parliament suspensions.

Two, southern gains: In some states, the INDIA bloc appears to be building momentum. In Maharashtra, the incumbent BJP government finds itself embroiled in the Maratha quota stir and farmers’ unrest. Also, the weakened Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray camps have avoided any friction with the Congress which appears to be the dominant coalition partner.

In Telangana, the Congress victory provides an opportunity for the party to make significant gains in the state (from three seats last time), and perhaps even opens the door towards a position of some leverage in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

Three, the Karnataka complication: The addition of JDS has made NDA competitive here. The downsides of an over-reliance on the caste census agenda have also split to the surface. Congress government is sitting on the local caste survey fearing a consolidation of dominant Lingayats and Vokkaligas in favour of BJP. Plus Siddaramaiah (OBC) and D K Shivkumar (Vokkaliga leader) have struck discordant notes on the need for a caste census.

Four, the Bihar cheer: Meanwhile, Bihar is the only state where principal alliance constituents (JDU and RJD) have actually started popular campaigns on the caste census agenda. In both Bihar and Maharashtra, state-level BJP has been forced into a defensive stance on the issue of expanding OBC reservation.

Five, the missing narrative: Yet, these points are best seen as footnotes of the emerging campaign. The trouble for the Opposition is that voters are still not aware of the main narrative of the INDIA bloc. If you ask BJP voters about the big message of the NDA campaign, most would reply with India’s rising image on the world stage or the Ram temple or welfare schemes of the central government. But opposition voters might struggle to come up with any shared message of the opposition platform. Except in Bihar, the caste census agenda has remained at the level of slogans and hasn’t seen any grassroots mobilisation.

Six, the missing campaign on price rise, jobs: The opposition has also consistently failed to mobilise people over widespread concerns over price rise. In Madhya Pradesh, CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey showed more than half of all voters claimed to be dissatisfied with BJP over price rise and unemployment. Yet, the survey also showed the very same voters favoured BJP over congress in voting choice.

Seven, the missing economic plan: Congress is still not treated by many to provide better economic management than BJP. It has also struggled to come up with a catchy economic plan to turn around India’s economic fortunes. In the absence of such a platform, talk of representation and social justice further derives the elite and middle class voters into BJP arms.

Eight, the popularity of national govt: In all the biannual India Today MOTN surveys since 2019 NDA share has never been projected to go below 298 seats. This represents both a dominant and stable social base: composed largely of urban middle class, urban class castes and large swathes of OBCs, Over two thirds of all voters (CSD-Lokniti surveys) in the three Hindi belts states evinced satisfaction with the national government.

Nine, the popularity of Modi: Finally, BJP still enjoys the decisive leadership advantage. Indeed, there is no alternative leader close to Modi in popularity. The national elections are more presidential than state elections. Even when the NDA lost Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan last time. It had won 34 of the 36 seats in Lok Sabha. In Rajasthan, a third of BJP voters claimed to have voted for Modi even in the state elections. In national elections, the PM is slated to drive an even bigger chunk into the BJP coalition. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

BJP’s top leadership seems to act in unconventional ways. That relates to its unexpected choice of chief ministers in three states, Vishnu Deo Sai in Chattisgarh, Mohan Yadav in Madhya Pradesh and Bhajan Lal Sharma in Rajasthan. To the public at large, and often the know-it-all media, these names could have been randomly picked up. ..

There is, however, some method (or pattern) to the apparent madness. Did anyone know that in 2001, when many names were being touted as possible successors to Keshubhai Patel, a backroom Sangh talent like Narendra Modi would be chosen as CM of Gujarat? We now cannot imagine BJP without him. The same goes for the choice of two-term Manohar Lal Khattar in Haryana, or Shivraj Sigh Chouhan (after the experiment with Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur in 2003-05) in Madhya Pradesh.

The induction of Sai in Chattisgarh, Yadav in MP and Sharma in Rajasthan, the last two by overcoming tried-and-tested popular claimants to the job, should be seen in this light. The media is going to town saying it is about looking for the next generation of leaders. But Chouhan is hardly old at 64. His replacement, Yadav, elected three times from south Ujjain, is 58, nearly 12 years older than what Chouhan was when he was selected to lead MP in 2005. Khattar was 60 when he took as CM of Haryana in 2014.

Vasundhara Raje whose claim in Rajasthan was over looked this time, is, however, 70, but her replacement must have been the hardest for the party to arrive at since BJP does not have a large majority in the state.

So, the assumption that BJP is looking for the next generation is only partly true. There are actually four reasons why BJP makes the kind of choices it does.

Big national leaders: First, whenever there is a strong central leadership, leaders in the state have to be in alignment with them, and not rival centres of power.

Experimenting: The next reason is about experimenting with new talents — where success is not guaranteed. To succeed, any new leader must be able to govern, have good ties to the organisation, and have political savvy- a difficult combo to find in one human being.

Bench strength: Unlike Congress, which has had many years in power and hence has the bench strength for heading governments of ministries, BJP did not have this depth when Modi took over in 2014. Hence the need to create a long-term bench for future leadership and government positions.

Vote arithmetic: BJP is seeking to build a lasting electoral coalition of Hindu castes and communities. And, this can happen only if dominant interests in various states see the party as the right ladder to advance their own political careers.

Social engineering: Chhattisgarh’s Sai is a tribal, and his two deputies are from OBC (Arun Sao) and Brahmin (Vijay Sharma) communities. In MP deputies Rajendra Shukla and Jadish Deva are Brahmins and scheduled caste respectively while CM Yadav is an OBC. MP CM Yadav could also be a signalling device for neighbouring UP, where Yadavs are mostly not with, BJP. Narendra Singh Tomar, a Rajput and till recently in the central cabinet, will be speaker in MP. Sharma in Rajasthan is a Brahmin, and his two deputies are Rajput and Dalit. While this pattern of balancing community faces is not unique to BJP, the party was one of the earliest to experiment with social engineering after the country was Mandalised.

Overlooked talent pool: there is, however, one strength special to BJP; it has an additional pool of talent to tap for positions in government and the party. Most parties have three sources of potential leaders; core insiders, external inductees, and previously apolitical talent from bureaucracy or the corporate sector: BJP has one more source and that is the Sangh Parivar. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Finally, somebody has politically owned him—Vishwanath Pratap Singh, the 7th Prime Minister of India. Though he changed the course of Indian politics, and unleashed forces leading irreversibly to the rise and rise of OBCs, a process that is likely to influence the 2024 elections, the Mandal messiah, as “VP” was popularly called, has been amongst the most forgotten of all PMs—till now.

Earlier this week, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin said evocatively, “We all belonged to V P Singh’s family, a pan-India social justice family”, while calling for “proportionate” reservation in the country. He was speaking at the unveiling of V P Singh’s statue in Chennai, at the well known Presidency College, in the presence of Akhilesh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party President. The late PM’s family members were also present on the occasion.

V P Singh’s politics spawned the rise of an OBC leadership in the country—Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh, Lalu Prasad, Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharti, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel, among others—with many of them ruling their respective states for more than quarter of a century. It also saw the emergence of Narendra Modi, an OBC leader, as PM in 2014.

However, none of them has openly acknowledge V P Singh’s role in the way that Stalin has now done. Akhilesh’s presence at the Chennai event has a special significance. His father Mulayam’s differences with V P Singh were legion. Had they held together, the trajectory of north Indian politics might have been different after 1990.

Referring to his decision to implement the Mandal report and give 27% in government jobs to OBCs, which opened Pandora’s box and led to a chain of immolations by upper caste youths, V P Singh had once quipped ruefully, “Goal kardiya, par taang toot gayi” (I scored a goal, but broken my own leg”.

Ask younger people, particularly in rural areas about prime ministers whose names they had heard. They mention Jawaharlal Nehru, Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi. Few had heard of Narasimha Rao. None had heard of Morarji Desai, Charan Singh, Chandra Sekhar, H D Deve Gowda or I K Gujral. All had heard of Atal Behari Vajpayee as well as Manmohan Singh, who is too recent as PM to forget, and Narendra Modi, who dominates the scene today as the incumbent Prime Minister.

What was, however, surprising was that while all had also heard of the diminutive Lal Bahadur Shastri (who coined Jai Jawan, Jai kisan slogan) and for fighting and winning a war with Pakistan. But few heard of V P Singh who Mandalised Indian politics.

At one such gathering in a rural area of Aurangabad district in Maharashtra, where no one had heard of V P Singh, many among them were young OBC men. A couple of them were even beneficiaries of the policy of reservations initiated by the late PM!

Revered by some and reviled by others for bringing a genie out of bottle which could never be put back, the reason no political entity has owned V P Singh as their icon not only because he was an upper caste (Rajput). It is also a harsh fact that a leader’s persona is often built up and carefully crafted by others. How much they are remembered depends on the extent to which their party or family has cultified them. (Cultification can also lend an element of charisma to a leader).

Today, the wheel has come full circle. The opposition under 28-party INDIA is all set to play the Mandal-2 card, by demanding that a caste census be held in the country. They suspect, and Bihar has shown this via a caste survey, that such an exercise is likely to reveal, a large number of OBCs in the country – more than the 52% disclosed by the 1931 census.

This might lead the OBCs to demand a greater share in jobs, educational institutions and possibility even in Parliament and state legislature—and help the Opposition parties mobilize political support.

By endorsing the demand for a caste census, the Congress, which has over the years lost support of OBCs in north India, has jumped on the bandwagon. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The results of the assembly elections to the five states announced on December 3 and 4 led to many winners and losers for the time being. All of them will be getting another chance to prove their mettle in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Narendra Modi: Modi was the face of BJP’s campaign with the party not declaring its CM names for M.P, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. ‘MP Ke Mann Mein Modi’, the central theme in Madhya Pradesh, became the plank elsewhere as the party tried to leverage his popularity to get past obstacles of unambitious unit in Chattisgarh, fear of anti-incumbency in MP, and leaders who did little ground work to back up their personal ambitions in Rajasthan, besides Congress’s ‘populist’ and ‘caste’ plank.

Amit Shah: BJP wins in MP and Chattisgarh confirm the ‘master strategist’ tag that he earned after scripting the BJP sweep of UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He chose the two states instead of Rajasthan, which has traditionally ousted the party in office. The victories, especially in Chhattisgarh can be attributed to his shrewd, morale boosting and stern ‘party comes first’ message to self—obsessed locals notables. His success removes any doubt as to who will run BJP’s 2024 Lok Sabha campaign.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan: BJP didn’t name him as CM face in Madhya Pradesh, but he remained at the centre of the party’s narrative about the state’s transformation into an agricultural powerhouse with decent infrastructure. He got the PM’s endorsement as a ‘lokpriya and karmath (popular and diligent) CM. His initiatives like ‘ladlibehna’ and the resultant popularity among women were important factors in the victory. The result is a blow to his rivals in the party He is a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s position again.

Revanth Reddy: Since the day he was appointed the Telangana Congress President, the slim, trim and aggressive Reddy stayed focused on targeting CM KCR and planned BRS’s ouster. His outreach throughout the state boosted Congress, though his unilateral style threatened some leaders in the party. The AICC intervened in time and a chastened Reddy disciplined himself while other leaders were accommodated in organisational roles.

J P Nadda: He assigned himself Rajasthan, where, the revolving—door pattern notwithstanding, BJP faced a challenge because of factional rivalries and Ashok Gehlot’s vigorous populism. He ensured the malcontents did not start mutinies and squabbles did not result in sabotage. The defeat of some senior lights and victory of rebels illustrate the enormity of the task he faced.

Vasundhara Raje: The two time CM didn’t give up when the BJP brass projected a ‘collective leadership’ model instead making her CM face. Impressive turn out of her rallies showed she is the most popular Rajasthan BJP leader, strengthening her claim to a third stint as CM. However, her aloofness during Congress’s entire term, and inability to come to terms with the new BJP leadership and take people along, could go against her.

Jyotiraditya Scindia: Responsible for the fall of Kamal Nath government in 2020, Scindia can gloat over the party’s performance in the Gwalior-Chambal region as most of the Congress MLAs there had joined the Saffron fold with him. Coming after Priyanka Gandhi’s dig about his height, the result may taste even sweeter. He is seen as a candidate for the CM because he is relatively young and his appointment would be a taunt to the Gandhis, to whose inner circles he once belonged.

Big Losers.

Bhupesh Baghel: An aggressive politician and OBC face, Baghel ensured that Congress was connected to the ground through his five years at the helm and made farmers a big part of his voter outreach. But his tenure was marred by a power struggle with colleague T S Singh Deo, and the Centre’s allegation of corruption during last two years. His confidence in his own strategy debarred any fresh thinking. Congress had a poor showing in Chhattisgarh.

The losers list in the Congress Party is long. They include Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Kamal Nath, Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot. BRS leader K Chandrasekhar Rao whose two term as Telangana Chief Minister came to an end. Is another loser for the time being. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

As the polls for five Assemblies elections are over— and Rajasthan and Telangana have become unexpectedly exciting, with the Congress putting up a fight—it’s time to capture some broad trends.

What is striking are the areas where consensus is now developing across parties, and one of them is the need to provide social welfarism—call it freebies, doles, handouts, what you will—as part of a safety net. The Congress and the BJP are vying with each other to promise—and mount—new welfare schemes.

The Ladli Behna Yojna to give financial help to women has helped the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. With its guarantees which yielded rich dividends in the recent Karnataka elections, the Congress is playing the social welfare card to the hilt in all the states. In Rajasthan, the BJP has urged people to not be taken in by “magician” Ashok Gehlot, knowing some of his government’s welfare schemes have gone well. In Chattisgarh, the loan waiver promise of the Congress to farmers could be a game changer.

We are seeing competitive welfarism not witnessed before and these elections have again underscored the trend.

These elections have also shown that “competitive religion” is now going to be the way to go politically—electorally. The list of promises to Hindus as part of Kamal Nath’s outreach programme is long. If he comes to power, he will, for instance, install idols of lord Ram, Nishadraj, Kewatraj in Chitrakoot, have a Ram Van Gaman Path (tracing the path Lord Ram is believed to have taken when exiled to the forest) develop Janapav, revered as Parshuram’s birth place, as a pilgrim site, revive the project of a Sita temple in Sri Lanka, increase the honorarium to Hindu priests. And so o

Chattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghal is not to be left behind.. He is building a “Bhavya” temple for Kaushalya, Lord Ram’s, mother in the state, and his government started Ramayan Mahotsav to promote Chhattisgarh’s “cultural identity”.

Here’s a look at the KCR XI: Kalvakuntia Chandrashekhar Rao. The Chief Minister and BRS president is a product of grassroots politics. Starting as a youth congress worker, KCR switched teams to play for Telugu Desam Party and defeated the seemingly invincibly Congress MLA, Madan Mohan, from Siddipet. He continued winning and eventuality became Deputy Speaker of United Andhra Pradesh.

Those who have closely interacted with him mention his meticulous planning and eagerness to grasp any subject. One of his favourite topics is agriculture, which led him to designing multiple schemes around it. In his first two terms, KCR has focused a lot on welfare schemes for the poor and those from various communities, who form a good chunk of the party’s vote bank. Like during the past two elections, KCR, this time too, is boarding choppers to attend two or three campaign meetings every day.

K T Rama Rao, the vice captain of the team, is the first to take strike when it comes to fighting the opposition, explaining the party’s stance or championing his father’s initiatives.

The BRS working President is two — time state minister and is known, like his father, for his articulate speeches. He is also known to play pivotal role within the council of ministers in matters of information technology, corporate affairs and industrial policy, and is also involved in the development and modernisation of Hyderabad. The KCR team has emphasised on implementation of the farmers friendly programmes as also industries. Congress in its campaign offered to Telangana people more facilities to outdo KCR regime. KCR’s big advantage is that his team consists of highly competent experts who are efficient implementers.

Harish Rao is an all—rounder who has honed his skills under the tutelage of his uncle, KCR, Harish enjoys a high strike rate; the party chief relies heavily on him for strategies and execution. During election times, he assumes the roles of trouble shooter and poll management expert, and is deployed in constituencies crucial to the party. He inherited Siddipet after his uncle vacated the seat and has consistently won it with record margins. He indirectly manages KCR’s constituency—Gajwel and oversees ground-level activities. Entrusted with the irrigation ministry to execute the Kaleshwaram project, he was later appointed to the finance ministry when the state was cash-strapped. Harish also took over as health minister during the pandemic. For the captain, his nephew, is the man for all seasons.

Vamshidhar Rao, a recent debutant from the Kalvakuntlelda family, Vamshidhar is a steadily gaining prominence within the team. He is the son of KCR’s elder brother, and has, of late been seen in the chief minister’s company. Vamshidhar plays a crucial role in KCR’s national ambition. He was appointed Maharashtra BRS in-charge this year; under him, the party recently won more than 50 gram panchayat seats there.

Palla Rajeshwar Reddy, the PhD holder and nominated MLC has been KCR’s trusted associate for a long time. Whether it is an internal party meeting, unofficial discussions, or Puja ceremony, Reddy is one of the few always seen with KCR. His significance can be gauged from the fact that he was chairman of the Rythu Bandhu Samithi, a government body formed for farmer welfare. Reddy is now gearing up to contest the assembly elections from Jangaon.

If Congress can finally unseat this BRS government in Telangana, that will be a great feat for the party which was marginalized in 2018 polls. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

As Telangana goes to polls, on November 30, the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi took inspiration from Team India’s performance at the just concluded the ODI World Cup. Hoping to emulate the cricket team, the party launched a campaign asserting that, just as India will lift its third trophy, the party will also win Telangana for the third time. Leading from the front is captain K. Chandrashekhar Rao; the others include a mix of family members, seasoned politician and former bureaucrats. though the Indian team failed to win the World Cup on November 19 final, the BRS is following the same leadership with confidence that India might have file in ODI final this year to win, but BRS will be third time lucky on December 3 when the results will be out.

Here’s a look at the KCR XI: Kalvakuntia Chandrashekhar Rao. The Chief Minister and BRS president is a product of grassroots politics. Starting as a youth congress worker, KCR switched teams to play for Telugu Desam Party and defeated the seemingly invincibly Congress MLA, Madan Mohan, from Siddipet. He continued winning and eventuality became Deputy Speaker of United Andhra Pradesh.

Those who have closely interacted with him mention his meticulous planning and eagerness to grasp any subject. One of his favourite topics is agriculture, which led him to designing multiple schemes around it. In his first two terms, KCR has focussed a lot on welfare schemes for the poor and those from various communities, who form a good chunk of the party’s vote bank. Like during the past two elections, KCR, this time too, is boarding choppers to attend two or three campaign meetings every day.

K T Rama Rao, the vice captain of the team, is the first to take strike when it comes to fighting the opposition, explaining the party’s stance or championing his father’s initiatives.

The BRS working President is two — time state minister and is known, like his father, for his articulate speeches. He is also known to play pivotal role within the council of ministers in matters of information technology, corporate affairs and industrial policy, and is also involved in the development and modernisation of Hyderabad.

Harish Rao: An all—rounder who has honed his skills under the tutelage of his uncle, KCR, Harish enjoys a high strike rate; the party chief relies heavily on him for strategies and execution. During election times, he assumes the roles of trouble shooter and poll management expert, and is deployed in constituencies crucial to the party. He inherited Siddipet after his uncle vacated the seat and has consistently won it with record margins. He indirectly manages KCR’s constituency—Gajwel and oversees ground-level activities. Entrusted with the irrigation ministry to execute the Kaleshwaram project, he was later appointed to the finance ministry when the state was cash-strapped. Harish also took over as health minister during the pandemic. For the captain, his nephew, is the man for all seasons.

Vamshidhar Rao: A recent debutant from the Kalvakuntlelda family, Vamshidhar is a steadily gaining prominence within the team. He is the son of KCR’s elder brother, and has, of late been seen in the chief minister’s company. Vamshidhar plays a crucial role in KCR’s national ambition. He was appointed Maharashtra BRS in-charge this year; under him, the party recently won more than 50 gram panchayat seats there.

Palla Rajeshwar Reddy: The PhD holder and nominated MLC has been KCR’s trusted associate for a long time. Whether it is an internal party meeting, unofficial discussions, or Puja ceremony, Reddy is one of the few always seen with KCR. His significance can be gauged from the fact that he was chairman of the Rythu Bandhu Samithi, a government body formed for farmer welfare. Reddy is now gearing up to contest the assembly elections from Jangaon. He might find a place in the cabinet if BRS returns to power.

Other prominent men of KCR include: B. Vinod Kumar, D. Damodar Rao, S. Narsing Rao, Rajiv Sharma, Somesh Kumar and P. Rajasekhar Reddy. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

A few months ago, the Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and former party chief Rahul Gandhi called a meeting to bring a truce between Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin pilot. At the meeting, Gehlot is learnt to have remarked that he had seen the 46-year-old Pilot grow up. An uneasy truce was brokered, but it remains tenuous against the backdrop of the unrelenting rivalry between Gehlot and Pilot.

Pilot says he has never responded to the kind of Gehlot’s harsh criticism of him. He says he believes that, in the event of a Congress victory, the race for chief minister’s post is open. He points to Gehlot’s failure in 2013 as an incumbent to win, reminding that the party had plummeted to 21 seats in that elections and that he helmed the uphill task from 2013 to 2018 to bring the party back to the majority mark.

Asked what makes you confident about a Congress victory, Pilot said Rajasthan has in the last three decades seen revolving door politics. But I am confident that this time we will break that trend. After our victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, we have strong tailwinds in the congress organisation. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra energised workers in the country. We have implemented most of the promises made in 2018. Also, the BJP is not a united force and is in total disarray in Rajasthan, while we are working unitedly.

2018. Do you see any difference between 2018 and now? You were state party chief in 2018.
2019. The difference is that now we are fighting as an incumbent. The last time when we fought as an incumbent, when we had a congress chief minister in 2013, we came down to 21 seats in the 200-member assembly. From 21 to go to the majority mark in five years was a constant struggle. As far as my role now concern, I am working as hard as I can to ensure that the party wins.
2020. How united is the Congress, given the backdrop of bitterness we you and Gehlot.
2021. I raised some issues that needed to be addressed. I am glad that the AICC took cognisance of those issues. For example, paper leaks. The AICC leadership recognised it is, an important issue and directed the Rajasthan government to take steps. It is not about individuals as much about the organisation and the congress party’s prospects in the elections.
2022. So you are putting all the bitterness behind.
2023. Some unkind words were said about me. But I don’t want to dwell on that. I have always believed that a certain level of decorum should be maintained in our discourse in public life, and I have never responded in kind. As Khargeji and Rahulji advised me, it is important to forget, forgive and move on.
2024. Have your demands with regard to paper leak and corruption in the Vasundhara Raje government been met fully ?

A.I raised these issues because they were important to be considered since we were going to polls. Some legal recourse was sought on some of the issues. Issues like reforming the Public Service Commission—we couldn’t do it in time because elections were declared, and one of the appointments made recently, just one day before elections were announced, was an individual for whom the chief minister had to apologise for making that appointment.

1. The BJP has no CM face and their campaign is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
2. Modi had led the campaign in 2018, too. We saw that happening in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka also. The BJP is getting pulled in many directions and they are going back and forth and as far as their campaign strategy is concerned. The BJP is hoping that by default they will get to win the state, but that is not the case. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

In a time marked by political discontent in Jammu and Kashmir, triggered by the loss of statehood and abrogation of Article 370, the BJP is trying to reshape people’s perception of the party. Leading that charge mechanism is a group of highly educated Muslims in —Farida Khan, Darakhan Andrabi, Hina Bhat, Parvaz Chauhan, and Ramisa Rafiq Wani. Their work stands out in comparison with the party’s male leaders in the union territory, who are busy bickering and framing factions.

Farida Khan hails from Seloo in Sopore Baramula—once a hot bed of militancy. She is party secretary in J&K and chairperson of the Block Development Council in Sopore. She boats a triple master’s degree in (political science, sociology, economics) and a PhD in economics. She began her political journey in 2013 and was an elected BDC chairperson 2019.

Khan has provided housing to underprivileged individuals through Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, and is now focussing on finishing the Rs 4-crore Jal Jeeven project in Boripura. “It is an important project and will resolve persistent water crisis in Sopore”, she said. After a drug addict killed her his mother, she initiated various de—addiction programmes and set up the rehabilitation centre in Sopore. Recently, she got funds for a hospital worth Rs75 lakhs in Boningoo. “I work in collaboration with government officials to address grievances expeditiously”, she said.

But working with the government comes with challenges. On March 30, 2021, Khan was on her way from Srinagar to a BDC meeting in Sopore Municipal Council when the Chairman of the Sopore Municipal Council called her, asking her to attend a municipal council meeting. She reached the venue of the Council meeting but “thought it would be better to attend the BDC meeting first as I was the host drove away”. The last minute decision saved her life. Minutes later, militants attacked venue—a councillor and a special police officer was injured. The militants escaped.

But that incident has not deterred Khan from continuing her work. She believes that focusing on the youth will bring prosperity and change on ground, and credits the BJP for letting her work freely.

This sentiment is shared by other women leaders. Darakhshan Andrabi, for instance, became the first Kashmiri—along with Union Minister Jitendra ,Singh—to be appointed the BJP national executive in 2021. She joined politics at 19 and launched the Socialist Democratic Party which contested several elections but failed to make an impression. Her political career got a boost after she merged her party with the BJP in 2013. In 2014, Andrabi locked horns with National Conference chief minister Omar Abdullah in the Sonawar constituency, but lost. She was made chairperson of the education and women’s welfare committee 2016.

In 2022, the Union Government formed two Waqf boards— one in Jammu and Kashmir, and one in Ladakh under Central Wakf Act, in 1995. Prior to this, all wakf properties were registered with J&K state wakf council and Muslim Specified Waqfs Board. Andrabi was made chairperson of waqf Board in Jammu and Kashmir. She made sweeping changes in managing the board’s 3,500 properties, including shrines, commercial complexes and schools. Under the new rules, mujavirs (caretakers) at all shrines were let go, and donations at the shrines were prohibited, evoking criticism from political parties. Andrabi defended the move saying mujavirs would often force people to donate.

“We have initiated reforms and 80 per of the people have supported him”, said Andrabi. “I am not afraid of the opposition. Politicians raised a hue and cry but that only motivated. We dismantled all committees and only the Wakf Board remains.” The board is now working to build a hospital in Srinagar and improve the standard of schools under it. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Nawaz Sharif’s celebratory return to Pakistan after several years in exile will turn into a political triumph only if the country’s military establishment, which had banished him from politics six years ago and now facilitated his recent insurrection, fundamentally changed its behaviour. So far, it seems that the establishment sees Sharif as a must—needed alternative to the generous populism of Imran Khan.

Sharif’s return makes it easier to hold elections that he might win. But history does not give reason for optimism about him being able to complete his tenure, if elected, and having a free hand in policy making. He has previously been elected Prime Minister thrice, only to be removed from office each time, without completing his term. In 1993, he was removed from office by a Presidential decree. In 1999, he was toppled by a military coup. And in 2017, he was disqualified from being prime minister by a judicial fiat.

He retained a strong support base, especially in the military’s dominant recruiting region of Punjab, throughout the last three years. But he has not seen eye to eye with successive army chiefs, several of whom were appointed by Sharif. The usual point of contention has been differences over security and foreign policies and over military leaders’ right to determine policies. The question now is, will a fourth Sharif term conclude with fatal altercation with Pakistan’s military leaders.

On the eve of the July 2018 elections that brought Imran Khan to office, the return of Sharif in not—too—distant future was predicted.. “Even if the military succeeds in installing a selected prime minister into office after the votes are cast, it will not succeed in its core objective of creating a creditable, effective, civilian façade. Sharif’s imprisonment will not end his (or his daughter’s) political careers long after the retirement of the generals and colonels who plotted his downfall.”

That is exactly what happened. The generals’ choice, Imran Khan, became greatest threat to the almighty establishment that any other politician had ever been. After he was removed from office, the former cricketer went on a rampage that threatened Pakistan’s external relations as well as domestic order. Enraged by his arrest, Khan’s cult of fans attacked military installations—something even declared enemies of Pakistani state had not done.

Unlike Sharif, and Benazir Bhutto before him Imran Khan was not a politician locking horns with the military over civilian supremacy under the constitution. He was trying to prove that his supremacy was greater than public approval for Pakistan’s military leaders and that he was stronger permanent state apparatus. The military responded with a crackdown, supported by most political elites, but given its unwillingness to impose military rule, it also needed a popular political alternative.

Sharif’s return, and the fast—track reversal of criminal charges and cases against him, is the result of the establishment’s desire to hold an election that Khan does not win. From the establishment’s perspective, Sharif would be a safer pair of hands than the narcissistic cricketer-turned-politician, given Sharif’s experience in both winning elections and governance. But the establishment’s willingness to let Sharif have another term is a reflection of some difficult ground realities.

At the time Sharif was forced into exile, Pakistani Punjab was divided between Sharif’s anti-establishment followers, who believed that fighting establishment to secure democracy was more important than fighting corruption, and Imran Khan’s pro-establishment supporters who repeated what had been the mantra of every Pakistani coup maker: Pakistan’s politicians are generally corrupt, corruption must be eliminated before democracy can function: and generals and judges have their own preferences to put the politicians in their place. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

“Is not he a man”? Sonia Gandhi was said to have exclaimed at a meeting of the party’s Central Election Committee (CEC) earlier last week. There was a deathly silence in the room. “Aren’t there corruption charges against him?

Sonia, according to the reports, was referring to Shanti Dhariwal, whose name came up  for consideration for a ticket for the coming Rajasthan  assembly  polls. Rahul Gandhi interjected, saying he too had heard many complaints against Dhariwal in Kota, during his Bharat Jodo Yatra.

What was left unsaid was how Dhariwal’s name had made it to the table. Along with Mahesh and Dharmendra Rathaur, Dhariwal is seen as congress chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s man. In September 2002 crisis, when Gehlot, once seen as a stout Gandhi family loyalist, scuttled the party high command’s plan to replace him with Sachin Pilot, the three had stood by CM. The fact that the CEC was debating Dhariwal showed Gehlot’s growing clout in Rajasthan. By insisting that he be axed, the high command was trying to restore some of his battered authority.

While Dhariwal, Rathaur and Joshi may not make it to the final list, the fact that Gehlot intransigence against benching of MLAs has meant that the congress has come out with only 33 names so far, out of 200, reflect this tussle. The lion’s share by all accounts—and this is significant part— will still be decided by the CM. There was little the Gandhi family could do in 2022—or now.

As one travels across Rajasthan, earlier last week, this came up repeatedly, with  more than one person marvelling at how Gehlot had “got away” saying this exposed the Family’s “helplessness” as nothing else could have.

To many, it is a sign of Gehlot’s growing “strength” — including turning down   an offer to stand for the congress presidency and besting the BJP’s plan to topple his government in 2020. “Dekho Dilli ko aankh dikha dee (see, he has shown up Delhi),” they said.

Others said Gehlot had demonstrated that he was “Rajneeti ka jadugar (a magician of politics)”, who knew how to turn tables on his opponents. Jadugar is a term which is often used for Gehlot, whose father practiced magic.

This image of a “strong leader” holds Gehlot in good stead. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi having set the template for a dabagg, damdaar neta   (fearless, powerful leader). So, the congress in Rajasthan today is not about Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and, even, Sachin Pilot despite his following amongst youth and influence in several districts. The congress is now seen as synonymous with Gehlot—with many suggesting he may buck anti-incumbency. Even BJP’s supports say “Inhone party ko takkar ki sthiti maen toh la diya hai (he has made it a contest issue)”.

A Jat farmer in Nehron ki Dhani village in Sikar district says: “Normally, by the time the elections are declared, we know which way  the wind is blowing. This time there is going to be fight”.

“The congress is likely to win 70-80 seats,” says a BJP supporter in Sikar town. “There is a 10 % chance that the Congress may just scrape through,” adds a political observer in Jaipur.

A 32-year-old hotel employee who says he will vote for the BJP, also acknowledges Gehlot’s “good work in health and education”. “But on the other side is rashtravaad (nationalism). I will choose nationalism”.

A street vendor who sells baked goods from a cart blames Modi for the rise of big retailers. “Hamare pet pe laat padhi hai” (We have been kicked in our stomach). This time I will not vote for Modi.”

The sense that Gehlot may have stemmed the congress side is a change from last year, when the party’s defeat was seen as a given. Even congressmen then talked of internal surveys giving the party 20-25 seats.

In 2018, the Congress’s lead had been narrowed, getting (two short of a simple majority) to BJP’s 72. The vote share difference between parties was just above 1%. Within a few months, the BJP had sent the Congress packing in the Lok Sabha polls, winning 24 of 25 seats in the state with ally RLP taking 1. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies and the horrifying scale of the October 7 attack on civilians emerges, there is a growing disquiet in a section of the Congress about the working committee resolution that did not mention Hamas or condemn the terror attack .

In fact, the first step towards what can be seen as a course correction has come. Sources in the Congress party said how the resolution, first reported in newspapers, came to be issued, was being investigated and there was a move towards taking a more nuanced position closer to one taken by the party’s communication chief Jairam Ramesh.

Without referring to the CWC resolution, or Jairam’s comments, congress spokesperson , Pavan Khera much later said, “ The Congress univocally condemns the attack on innocent civilians of Israel.”

Khera’s statement went beyond Ramesh’s formulation that had condemned “brutal attacks” on Israelis but without naming Hamas or the terror attack as the perpetrators. And it was much stronger than CWC that had been silent about Hamas or its terror attack on Israel. “We have always believed”, Khera continued, “that the legitimate aspiration of the people for a life of self respect, equality and dignity can be only fulfilled through a process of dialogue and negotiations ensuring national security for the people of Israel”.

With Khera’s words, the Congress has come out with three statements on the war in a week, showing the differences within that it has tried to synthesize. Former Home Minister P. Chidambaram, however, felt that both the statements — Ramesh and the CWC resolution — should be “read together” and both sides must stop violence. He said it was BJP that had changed its position, first by supporting Israel and then talking about the rights of the Palestinians.

Talking to four senior Congress leaders, it became evident that after the conflict was discussed in the CWC, a brief resolution was drafted and amendments made before being distributed among members of the body. To get around the differences on the issue, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge decided the resolution would not be passed, saying the CWC should stick to discussing the demand for a caste census. “There was even a thumping of desks at this (welcoming Kharge’s decision). Rahul Gandhi also thumped the table, agreeing with the decision”.

Another Congress functionary said the resolution was not supposed to be made public, admitting, “We don’t know how it happened, and who did it.” While some Congress leaders acknowledged that “it (the CWC resolution) did not represent the prevalent view, some mischief was done and the resolution was released”, others labelled it a faux pas.

“Mistake or mischief, that (not condemning HAMAS) is not our stand”, said a senior Congress leader. “A terror attack is a terror attack. There is no way the party can condone an attack on civilians”.

It was Ramesh who first took a nuanced position on behalf of the party. He condemned the “brutal attacks on the People of Israel” while reasserting India’s support for the “legitimate aspiration of the Palestinian people for a life of self-respect, equality and dignity”.

Significantly, he was also not critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that India stands for Israel at its most difficult moment. This represented a change in the Congress’s position. In the recent past, the party has criticized the government for supporting Israel at the cost of Palestinians.

As geopolitical realities changed over the years and India’s relationship with Israel, and US deepened, the Congress position underwent a subtle shift. It was Prime minister P V Narasimha Rao of the Congress who first established diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992 and announced it while Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) supremo Yasser Arafat was in India (Rao had taken Arafat into confidence).

Under Narendra Modi, the relationship reached a new level. The 12U2 group—a grouping of India, Israel , the US and UAE that is sometimes called the West Asia Quad—and recently forged IMEC (the India Middle East-Europe) Economic Corridor are signs of change. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

On August 7, 1990, Prime Minister V P Singh, driven by his own set of political difficulties, announced in Parliament that the Mandal Commission’s recommendations for reservation of Other Backward Classes would be implemented. It was a turning point for Indian Political system, marking the advent of what came to be known as Mandal politics that was centred on the interests of the backward class voter and transforming the nature of electoral politics with the rise of leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav.

Three decades later, the country, which is on the cusp of a general election, is witnessing the return of Mandal politics. There is a growing clamour for a caste-based census, with the opposition parties seeking to make it their main election plank. Leaders of the opposition alliance have stressed on carrying out a caste-based census and raising 50 per cent ceiling on reservation. The result of the caste-based survey carried out in Bihar, which pegs the number of extremely backward classes and other backward classes together at 63 per cent, provide a statistical basis for the demand being made for proportionate reservation and a caste count at the national level.

The last time a caste census was held was in 1931. The Mandal Commission’s recommendations are also based on figures extrapolated from data. A major point of argument in favour of a caste census is that schemes and affirmation action today are based on outdated figures. OBC leaders believe that their share of the population could be around 60 per cent or the country’s total, and some say it could even be more than 70 per cent. A simmering demand for representation based on current figures now appears to have taken the form of an idea that is irresistible, both socially and politically.

The social sentiment that is being articulated by the political parties is about a remedy to the prevailing situation where power and resources are seen as concentrated in the hands of a small section of society. It is felt that political representation has not translated into institutional representation. “To tackle the problem of the oligarchic rule of the Hindu upper caste, the representation of the other sections in the institution has to be enhanced. Each community’s strength needs to be counted and adequate representation provided to them,” said eminent scholar G Mohan Gopal. “Why has it not been done? Because it is feared that the members of the communities that dominate the power structure are much less than their representation.”

A highlight of what could be described as Mandal 2.0 is the spectacular change of stance of the Congress on the subject of caste census and reservation for OBC. At its plenary session in Raipur earlier this year, besides supporting caste census, the Congress also resolved to bring in reservation for OBCs, Scheduled caste and Scheduled tribes in judiciary and in private sector. It made a U-turn on the issue to quota-with-in-quota for the marginalized sections within the reservation for women in the legislatures, supporting it unlike 2010 when the women reservation bill piloted by Manmohan Singh government did not have a sub-quota. And it also made a commitment to reform the quota for the economically weaker sections by bringing within its ambit the poor from the backward classes and other marginalized sections.

It was in Karnataka assembly elections that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi first gave the slogan of ‘Jitni, Abadi, Utna Haq (proportionate reservation) and made the demand for a caste census. The slogan, a variation of similar slogans raised by socialist ideologue Ram Manohar Lohia and BSP leader Kanshi Ram, brought the Congress in sync with the Mandal Commission’s report, which had found virtue in proportionate representation. More recently both Rahul and Sonia Gandhi in the context of women reservation bill, backed quota—within—quota in the legislation. “The Congress Working Committee recently passed a resolution for caste census, and the party had also announced at the Raipur session that once we form government at Centre, we will carry out a caste census”, said Capt Ajay Singh Yadav, chairman of the Congress’s OBC department.

The OBCs were never a dedicated support base of the Congress in Hindi heartland. The party won elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar based on the backing of upper castes, dalits and Muslims, losing their votes with the rise of the politics of social justice on the one hand and the Hindutva-driven politics of BJP on the other hand. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Hardworking, simple and down to earth. That is how former Union Minister and NCP founder, Sharad Pawar, describes industrialist Gautam Adani in his 2015 autobiography, Lok Majhe Sangati (People, My Companions). The Maratha strongman has never shied away from supporting Adani, even when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi launched a scathing attack following Hindenburg report allegations against the Adani group. He also opposed the Congress’s demand for a joint parliamentary committee inquiry, and instead favoured a probe by Supreme Court. He told a news channel that Adani was being targeted.

So Pawar inaugurating an industrial plant with Adani in Ahmedabad did not come a surprise to many. Pawar has no qualms posing for a photograph with Adani. He is also learned to have visited Adani’s residence and office. Nonetheless, their meeting did raise eyebrows, especially in the Congress that is clearly not comfortable with Pawar’s close ties with Adani.

But Pawar’s lieutenants make light of meeting. “Pawar sahib was called to inaugurate the plant. So he went there. There is nothing more to it, said NCP Maharashtra president Jayant Patel. “Pawar has excellent personal relations with not just Adani but most of the industry captains”.

The relationship between Adani and Pawar is almost two decades old and dates back to Adani’s early days as a rising businessman. Pawar knows Adani family well, too.

And what has deepened their bonds is that Adani feels indebted to Pawar for life. A source informed that Adani was in the Taj Mahal Palace in Mumbai when terrorist laid seize on November 26, 2008. Adani called Pawar for help. The Congress-NCP combine was ruling Maharashtra then and the late R R Patil of the NCP was the home minister. Pawar, who was Union Agriculture minister then, asked for Adani and a top Maharashtra bureaucrat to be rescued as one of the top priorities. “Since then Adani has been in sort of a personal debt to Pawar”, said the source.

Also, Pawar had put his weight behind Adani when the coal block awarded to his company was cancelled by Union environment minister Jairam Ramesh as it was too close to the Tadoba-Andhari tiger reserve in Maharashtra. It is said that Praful Patel, once a close aide of Pawar, and now a leader in the breakaway NCP group led by Pawar’s nephew Ajit, was instrumental in bringing Adani closer to Pawar. While the autography does not throw any light on this, it does mention how Adani entered the thermal power sector on Pawar’s advice. The book mentions that Pawar made the suggestion at an event held in memory of Patel’s father. Adani then set up a thermal power at Tiroda in Gondia, which was Patel’s Lok Sabha constituency.

Adani and Pawar have had two meetings in recent months. One was in April and another in June, just before Ajit’s rebellion. It was speculated that Adani was reaching out to Pawar on behalf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Similar meetings had taken place in 2014 ahead of the assembly elections in Maharashtra. When the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra with 122 of 288 seats, the NCP declared outside support to the Devendra Fadnavis government.

A senior Congress leader said that Modi wants to break the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra and INDIA at national level, which is why Adani is being used to woo Pawar. “The problem is Pawar keeps meeting him and succeeds in sending confusing signals”, said the leader. He knows that this can create mistrust. So we really don’t know what’s on his mind and whether he will be able to withstand the pressure being applied by Modi through Adani”. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The Women’s Reservation bill is a pivotal instrument for achieving political empowerment. When it comes to matters concerning women, government, as on occasions, refrains from doing politics. This is a matter of unwavering commitment for the Prime Minister, and as such, government have taken resolute actions whether it’s regarding Article 370, Triple Talaq, and now Women’s Reservation Bill. Women, when, given the same action access and opportunities, can excel in the political arena just as women scientists have excelled in ISRO.

Over past nine years, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India has pivoted towards a paradigm of women-led development. The outcomes of these empowerment initiatives are evident, ushering in a transformative change in the nation’s social fabric.

The Modi government’s efforts to empower women through initiatives such as Ujjwaja Yojana, Swachhata Abiyan, Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao, MUDRA Yojana, increasing maternity leave, and permanent commissioning of women in Armed Forces are visible to all. Around 70 per cent of loans under PM Mudra Yojna have been sanctioned to women. These are loans up to Rs. One million to support micro-level units and those self employed. Similarly, 80 per cent of beneficiaries under Stand-UP India are women.

For Modi government, ensuring life of dignity for women stands as an unwavering commitment. This dedication is evident in the expanded adoption of LPG cylinders under the Ujjwala Yojana, safeguarding millions of women from chronic respiratory disorders by smoke-free kitchens. Furthermore, with the success, of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, countless women now have access to toilets in their homes, easing concern over their safety and their dignity. Women got joint ownership of houses made under PM Awas Yojna.

Over past nine years under Modi government, women have surged ahead with notable accomplishments. This progress is evident in the increased representation of female in police personnel, accolades secured by sports women on international platform, and the rising enrolment of women in science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics disciples. Since 2014, female participation in technical education, especially in the Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs), has doubled. Remarkably, nearly 43 per cent of STEM graduates in India are women. About a quarter of space scientists in India are women whose dedication and hard work have been instrumental in the nation’s flagship space missions, including Chandrayaan, Gaganyaan and mission Mars.

Today, more women are enrolling in higher education than men in India. We also have one of the highest number of women pilots in civil aviation. And female pilots in Indian Air Force are now flying fighter aircraft. The Modi government has reserved posts for women in CAPF’s (Central Armed Police Forces) and allowed the admission of girls in the premier National Defence Academy (NDA) and Sainik Schools. Women fighter now stand to serve as “Amrit Rakshaks” in “Amrit Kaal” as envisaged by Modi.

The right to vote and contest elections was granted to women in India since beginning. About 1.4 million, 46 per cent of elected representatives in rural local bodies in India are women. Indian women and their empowerment are playing a big role in pushing the country’s growth.

The government recently convened a special session to inaugurate new Parliament building— a symbol of new India. Government recently envisaged this Parliament embarking on its journey by addressing one of the pivotal bills in its history. This auspicious start aligns with a building designed to serve the nation for the coming century. Modi has aptly stated that success cannot be achieved if 50 per cent of population, which comprises women, remains confined to their homes. As India propels itself to become a dominant global economic force, the role of women in contributing to the nation’s growth becomes increasing indispensable with each passing day.

The women’s reservation bill is a historic legislation, which will further boost women empowerment and enable even greater participation of women in our political and governance processes. With the enactment of legislation, India positions itself on the brink of a more radiant and inclusive tomorrow, with our Nari Shakti at the heart of this transformation. This transformative journey also signifies a paradigm shift in societal perceptions—where women are no longer merely beneficiaries but are active contributors and shapers of the nation’s destiny. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

With the success of the G20 summit in Delhi, is Narendra Modi, making a mark globally as Jawaharlal Nehru did on the world stage after Independence? India’s first Prime Minister had carved out a niche for the country as the leader of the non-aligned movement even though it was at that time seen as poor and backward. Today, Modi strides on the global stage at the head of the world’s fifth largest economy.

Not long ago, Karan Singh, who had worked with every Prime Minister, compared Modi to Nehru. “(I suspect) he will never admit this but he would like to be another Nehru and surpass him.”

Many have often compared Modi to Indira Gandhi—not so much to Nehru, who the BJP-RSS love to dismiss. Indira, like Modi, was a strong leader, did not brook opposition, went beyond to become a mass leader, drew criticism for weakening institutions — and ruled through her PMO.

The erudite, Harrow—Cambridge—educated aristocratic Nehru, brought up in sprawling, Anand Bhavan, was loved by the Indian masses because he has thrown himself in freedom movement and gone to jail many times to secure Independence. One of the reasons why Mahatma Gandhi chose him as the Congress President in 1946, who later went on to become Prime Minister, was his ability to deal with British, which would smoothen India’s transition to a free, sovereign nation.

The non-English speaking Modi with his chaiwalla background and OBC credential clawed his way up to the pinnacle of power—and with equal determination to the global high table. This is the story of devolution of power enabled by India’s democracy—and it resonates with an aspirational India today. He is effectively leveraging India as a growing market and the West’s need to contain China in the region. (The India-West Asia- Europe corridor announced at Delhi summit to counter China’s Belt and Road initiative is the latest case in point).

Modi borrowed a leaf from Nehru book at G20 conclave despite two leaders being pole apart ideologically—Nehru the convinced secularist mindful of the rights of the minorities, and Modi with his Hindu civilizational project which may be further unpacked if he secures a third stint in power.

The five-day special session of Parliament gave more glimpse into BJP agenda for the future. Bharat vs India and “One nation, One Election” being a foretaste of what may come.

The world applauded India’s deft diplomacy in managing to get the Delhi Declaration adopted. India managed to maintain its neutrality over Russia-Ukraine war which was expected to cast a shadow on the summit. Many were skeptical whether a Delhi Declaration would be possible, after China and Russia’s top leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, had decided to give the event a miss.

Unlike Bali last year, the declaration this time did not condemn Russia for aggression. And though Ukraine was unhappy, its allies (US, UK, France and others) accepted it. Both sides wanted to keep India on the right side. Clearly, a majority (those not taking sides) prevailed. India enabled the Global south to come to centre stage, even as it also played a critical role in bringing the 55-nation African Union into the G20. China was not happy. Modi, like Nehru before him, had succeeded in walking neutral, middle path.

The G20h struck a high note for many Indians—and Modi showcased what India was capable of. The spectacle of the world leaders, led by Modi, standing together to pay homage to Father of nation, an apostle of non-violence at Raj Ghat sent its own message (Even as the Ukraine war continued to rage on, defying a solution. Or that the Gandhian institutions are under attack).

The Delhi summit, in evolving a consensus, showed, that India’s Prime Minister has arrived on the world stage. It was only in 2013, when Modi was declared the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate that people had wondered how he would handle issues of foreign policy in an increasingly complex world.

Modi seized every opening that India’s presidency of G20 provided, to showcase India as a confident country, a rising power, a nation to be wooed, a preferred destination for investment. India’s art, culture, history, hospitality, its kaleidoscopic colours and diversity—captured at Bharat Mandapam and earlier in state capitals and smaller towns—were used to the full.

Even Chandrayyan—3 and subsequent Solar mission have struck all the right cords for India to be seen as a nation on the march. As is Modi’s wont, everything had to be “bhavya” (grand), its message amplified for the maximum possible impact. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The debate on “one nation, one election” seems to revolve around two related themes — technical feasibility and political motives. The supporters of this motive evoke several technical issues—the ever increasing cost of elections, administrative technicalities and possibilities of corruption, the negative impact of frequent elections on governance and the election-centric focus of policy initiative. These concerns are not entirely new. Various official reports on electoral reforms, including the Law Commission’s 170th Report which has been prominently mentioned in the recently released government notification, have raised these important technical administrative questions on several occasions. No one can deny the fact that these issues affect the functional aspects of our democratic polity.

The opponents of the one nation, one election thesis question the political enthusiasm of the BJP. The High-Level Committee constituted by the government is seen as a calculated political move. Congress leader, Adhir Ranjan Choudhury, who was inducted as the Leader of Opposition in the HLC, criticized the terms of reference of the committee. In his opinion, the proposal is politically motivated, “pragmatically non-feasible and logistically unimplementable idea”. Delhi Chief Minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal goes a step further in his criticism. According to him, “they (BJP) will not show their faces for five years if one nation, one election gets implemented”.

The election reform versus political motive debate has certainly contributed to our public discourse in a significant way. The election, which has always been regarded as a settled issue of our political system, has emerged as an open and unresolved question of democracy. Precisely, for this reason, there is a need to go back to the Constitution which envisages a clear, ever evolving conception of democracy. The Constitution, in this sense, could be taken as a crucial point of reference to reassess the one nation, one election proposal. More specifically, we need to examine a very basic question: What is the relationship between Constitutional democracy and the elections in the post-colonial Indian context?

The Indian Constitution, we must remember, is an outcome of a political movement. Our national freedom struggle, especially, the dominant strand of it led by Mahatma Gandhi, was not merely anti-colonial, it was fully committed to the idea of people’s participation in achieving the wider objective of social change. This political imagination was one of the resources which influenced the deliberations in the constituent assembly. The Constitution finally adopted parliamentary democracy not merely as a form of government, but also as an instrument to realise the aspirations of the national movement in future India. The Constitution in this sense, offers us a future –oriented meaning of democracy for creating a secular polity guided by the principles of equality and social justice.

The Constitution, however, is also a legal-administrative document. It has to spell out the mechanism by which this normative imaginative of democracy could be realistically implemented. This makes the idea of election very relevant. A close reading of Articles 324-327 suggests that election is seen as an apparatus to ensure the effective participation of citizens in an overtly secular sense. The Constitution seems to remind the government that democracy is a political virtue, which has to be fully realized by evolving what B R Ambedkar calls constitutional morality; and by this logic, conducting of free and fair election is the most important instrument to make polity responsive and democratic.

The Constitution empowers the supreme legislative body, Parliament, to make future laws to strength this democracy—election equilibrium. At the same, it is expected that the judiciary protects this Constitutional mandate again by evolving people-based legal interpretations. The Basic Structure Doctrine is a good example in this regard. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed credit on the eve of G20 summit for converting a heads of government meeting into “a people’s festival”. The government did well to popularize the Indian G20 agenda among people across the country and the world, even if this was something done a la Bollywood style. It is, therefore, striking that in the run—up to summit there has been considerable criticism of the Prime Minister’s leadership style in international media.

The world is taking an increasingly critical view of India. The Pew Research institute recently reported that while 68 per cent of Indians polled felt that India is “getting stronger”, in most other G20 countries, including the United States, no more than a third felt this way and close to half in fact felt nothing much had changed as far as India’s “influence in the world” is concerned.

Part of the reason for this global “influence”, is not shaped by governments alone but by people and civil society institutions and the interaction between them. Official propaganda only feeds one’s own ego and usually waste of time. Consider the fact that government to government (G20) level, China has become very “unpopular” in the West and yet, even today, China attracts more western tourists and business than India. Public perceptions about nations are as important as G2G relations. In fact, when diplomatic relations worsen, people-to-people (P2P) contacts can help maintain a balance in the relationships between nations, especially neighbours.

This, however, has not been the Modi government’s approach to Pakistan and China. A deterioration in diplomatic relations has been accentuated by reduced P2P contact. Apart from an occasional cricket match, which is played as if sportsmen are soldiers, there is actually no social contact between the civil societies of India and Pakistan. It was certainly heartening to see athlete Neeraj Chopra’s mother gently rebuke an Indian journalist for suggesting that her son’s victory was sweeter since a Pakistani had been worsted.

Social contact among people through tourism, culture festivities, academic programmes is generally very low between India and her neighbours but minimal with important ones, China and Pakistan. All three governments are to blame for this situation and so there is no point in indulging in a blame-game. The low civil society traffic between China and India stands in contrast to the continuing P2P contact between China and United States despite worsening G2G relations.

It is in our national interest that even as our government adopts a tough stance on national issues pertaining to our neighbourhood, it ought to encourage greater civil society contact cross borders, especially among and academia. Neighbourhoods must permit each other’s media to be properly stationed and represented. One of the best books in recent times about life in China was written by the Indian journalist, Pallavi Aiyer. But that was over a decade ago.. The absence of such media contact explains how dependent India media has become on Western for views on China.

Indian society and culture retain a certain appeal across much of Asia, including China, even as Indian elite attitudes and prejudices do not. Indian elites are viewed as arrogant, pro-west and lacking in cultural and nationalistic spirit. It is precisely for this reason that in the past many in China had enthusiastically reached out to the activists and intellectuals affiliated with RSS, and preferred dialogues in Hindi and Mandarin to English. But the more recent closing of the Indian minds poses a challenge to a better understanding of important neighbours. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The most significant political development this year is not the formation of the Indian Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a congregation of forces opposed to the BJP. It isn’t the tentative alliance that BJP is seeking to build with its older and newer partners. And it it’s the G20 summit, which is much a diplomatic event as a political one to symbolize India’s success in the domain of international politics under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The most important is persistent inflationary pressures on the national economy. The BJP is fully aware of the political implications of inflation. From 1998 state assembly elections, where high onion prices cost the party its government in Delhi, to 2013-14, the link between politics and prices is very crucial, food prices comprise a substantial element of inflation basket, is quite clear to the party’s managers.

Indeed, in his Independence Day address from the ramparts of Red Fort, even PM pushed forward a narrative of progress and achievement, Modi sneaked in a brief segment on inflation where he acknowledge the problem.

He attributed it to the global climate, with pandemic and then the Ukraine war destabilizing markets. “Today the world is facing the crisis of inflation.  We import some goods from around the world. Unfortunately, we also import inflation.” But then, recognizing this is a wide spread concern—Modi was delivering his speech on a day after data showed that headline “consumer price index had jumped from 4.9 per cent in June to 7.4 per cent in July – he said that India had tried its best to control inflation. “Compared to the past, we have also some success, but should not be complacent with that things are better than that in the world. I have to take more steps in this direction to minimize the burden of inflation of countrymen. And we will continue to take that step.”

Inflation has coincided with what economists believe has been a K-shaped recovery of the economy after the pandemic; the terms refers to the phenomena where corporate have seen profit-led growth and the upper middle classes and segments of the middle — classes and segments of the middle-class have done reasonably well but, simultaneous, there has been a dip in the incomes and living standard of a much greater segment of the population — the poor in rural and urban areas, small farmers, labour in the informal sector, and lower middle classes.

Thus, even as major structural issues that have haunted the economy for decades, of persistent unemployment and a manufacturing sector that doesn’t have the base and capacity to accommodate the millions who join the work force remains.

Supplement this with one more factor. In a recent piece for Indian Express, the Economist Jean Dreze convincingly argued that the real wages of male agriculturalist labourers, non-agriculturalist labourers and construction workers grew at less than 1 per cent between 2014-15 and 2021-22; he pointed out to a recent data suggest that in 2022-23, the growth rate of real wages for the first group was just 0.2 per cent and that the other two actually saw a decline.

It is in this backdrop that the 2024 campaign will hinge on a variable that neither surveys by pollsters nor reports by journalists have yet been have yet been to unravel. Are the poor in India disillusioned? Or are they angry? Or the poor in India disillusioned? Or they hopeful? And more importantly, do they blame somebody for this?

But while the Opposition may bank on precisely on this juncture in the political economy to assume that voter is angry and, therefore, its prospects are better in the next elections, recent political and elector history has shown that it will be committing a grave mistake in underestimating the BJP for four reasons.

One, the party has robust feedback channel and is aware of the ground realities. As the PM’s speech indicated, both economic data from the top as well as organizational feedback from the ground have already equipped the party leadership with the information on prices and how these are affecting the lives of to address the gaps and vulnerability. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

India successfully crossed a decisive milestone by accomplishing the demanding task of soft landing a robotic spacecraft on the Moon. Chandrayan-3’s Vikram lander is now firmly sitting on the South polar region of the lunar surface and getting ready to collect valuable data about the moon, its interior as well as the extremely thin atmosphere surrounding it. And the six-wheeled Pragyan rover, which was cocooned in Vikram till landing, has begun its exploration crisscrossing the landing area at snail’s space.

For its part, the ‘propulsion module’ of Chandrayaan-3 that carried Vikram from Earth to the 150 km high lunar orbit, continues to encircle the Moon there. It has the company of Chandraan-2’s orbital module, which is circling the Moon for the last four years and has sent copious data on its various facets. We are fortunate indeed to simultaneously witness an Indian lander and an Indian rover on the lunar surface along with two of our spacecrafts orbiting the Moon. All this is the result of meticulous planning, perseverance and dedication of thousands of members of India’s proud space fraternity, who are understandability jubilant.

Landing on the airless lunar surface is challenging indeed. That is why only four countries— former USSR/ Russia, China , the US, and now India have accomplished this. What is more important for India is the gentle landing of Chandrayan—3 has been accomplished in south polar region of Moon with its difficult yet alluring terrain. Scientists are captivated by the prospects of water ice in this region. This as well as the supposed presence of relics of early system on this surface are the main reasons for the lunar south polar region becoming the target of spacecraft from India, the US, Russia, China and Japan.

During the days leading up to the Chandrayaan-3’s soft landing, there was talk of a India-Russia ‘race’ to reach the lunar south pole. But India has been striving for a soft landing in the South polar region from the time of Chandraan-2, which could not accomplish the task. And, Russia has its own reasons for taking up lunar exploration after a gap of 47 years.

A careful look at the 3,900 kg weighting Chandrayaan-3’s long journey of 40 days to its destination, reveals clockwise precision with which the planned events took place— from its launch by our own LVM3 vehicle to its placement on the path to encounter the Moon, to insertion into the lunar orbit to separation and then smooth landing of Vikrant. It also points to both the analytical and managerial skills of ISRO, its ability to rise to the occasion.

Since all these operations barring the soft landing had been successfully performed, the event that has aroused suspense among millions of Indians was the landing task itself. Any spacecraft operation of this sort also brings butterflies to the stomach of those who endeavour it seriously. As the live broadcast of the ‘retro burn’ of the majority of the goals of Chandraan-3 stood accomplished.

With the indigenous technologies essential for landing and revolving on the Moon now successfully demonstrated, ISRO shall focus on in situ exploration using three scientific payloads of Vikram and two Pragyan for the next 14 Earth days. This is a period during which the Sun will be continuously shinning over the landing spot, thereby, illuminating Vikram and Pragyan’s solar panels. Until now, ISRO could study the Moon only via remote sensing. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Days speech seems to have disappointed two very different kinds of political observers. For Modi admirers, the speech does not offer any new mantra. Except for the slogan, “demography, democracy and diversity”. Modi did not make any extraordinary or unexpected claim that could be highlighted as master stroke by the pro-BJP media.

The speech might have been disappointing for Modi’s opponents as well. Modi was not in campaign mode. His condemnation of the Opposition was implicit and thematic. Without naming any political party, he criticized dynastic rule as an undemocratic phenomenon. This careful criticism does not offer possibilities to Modi’s rivals to use this speech as a political resource.

Yet, this was one of the most important political statement Modi has made in the last ten years as Prime Minister. The speech was not delivered for direct media consumption. Instead, it was a serious attempt to provide a functional thematic outline to the structural political changes introduced by the Modi regime after 2014. More specifically, this speech introduces us to the idea of political time, which goes beyond the BJP’s well known criticism of Indian history. Modi did not merely make an effort to establish a link between  the past and present but also tried to offer a different imagination of the political future.

Modi invokes the idea of political time to offer an interesting classificatory schema. The Indian past is divided into two overlapping categories—the period of slavery and the period of skill and liberation. And, India’s present (and future) is described as the “Amrit Kaal”.

The speech begins with ‘here and now’, especially with a minor reference to Manipur violence. This present is located in a different time span—the period of slavery that began around 1,000-1,200 years ago. Modi argues that defeat of one small kingdom at that time was not an insignificant event. However, according to him, this defeat caused serious damage and somehow paved the way for cultural and political subjugation. There was not any specific mention of any ruler or kingdom in this formulation. Yet, Modi was able to communicate the standard criticism of secular history, which makes a crucial distinction between the empires established by the rulers, who happened to be Muslims, and British colonialists.

This revised version of the Indian past is presented to us as a new political commonsense. It is worth noting that unlike other BJP leaders, Modi always remains very careful about the question of history. The speech he delivered in 2020 in Kolkata is relevant in this regard. Underlining the significance of history, he argued: “…… India’s history is not what we study before examinations…..Historians could not see how the society………reacted …. As a result…. many things   of history were left behind…. The soul of any land is represented by the feelings of people there… political and military is temporary, but public sentiments expressed through art and culture are permanent. Thus, preserving our rich history…is very important for… every Indian.”

It does not mean Modi completely ignores the established distinction between medieval and modern period of Indian history. His formulation recognizes the political significance of the national movement in a slightly different way. The struggle against British colonialism, he claims, marks the period of struggle and liberation. Modi argues that the struggle for freedom, which started almost a thousand years, found a new political overtone during anti-British national movement. The political independence, which India achieved in 1947, was the successful outcome of this long and uninterrupted freedom struggle. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Over the last year, Rahul Gandhi has been attempting political resurrection. First, via the five-month walkathon of Bharat Jodo Yatra that saw him play the role of a doughty fighter. Second, a subsequent five month spent outside of Parliament which allowed Gandhi to assume the role of a martyr.

The martyrdom parade might have been stopped by Supreme Court’s recent judgment staying Gandhi’s disqualification. Yet, the judgment also lends to Congress’ claim of unjust punishment.

From the assassination of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi to the renunciation of Sonia Gandhi, the myth of Gandhi family martyrdom has provided an essential glue to the Congress, in absence of a clear ideology.

This particular reiteration of ‘Rebranding Rahul’ has been more fruitful than earlier version. It has helped cement Gandhi’s centrality not only to the Congress but also to the larger opposition coalition. Many Congress supporters feel the stage is now set for a rejuvenated Gandhi to undertake a third and final act; the role of the primary challenger to Narendra Modi for the office of the Prime Minister.

But on this question, Congress still finds itself stuck in a quagmire. Its 2024 strategy is composed of two mutually conflicting goals; the achievement of a broad opposition unity and the recovery of the former ‘Congress space’.

Congress realizes that a presidential style ‘Rahul vs Modi’ contest, as a referendum on a national agenda, might not work favourably for it. In subsequent elections, Congress lost 171 out of the 186 seats where it battled head-to-head. Most of these seats lie in northern and central India where the popularity gap between Modi and Gandhi is still formidable. To cite an example; a recent C-voter survey in Madhya Pradesh showed 57% people to continue to repose faith in Modi as their preferred choice for PM, as opposed to a much smaller 18% who favour Rahul. Thus, a self interest pushes both the Congress and regional parties towards a shared platform against powerful incumbent, with the hope of converting the national election into a series of state elections.

It is very likely that any strident attempts by the Congress to project Gandhi as their PM candidate would scupper the goal of broad opposition unity heralded by the India alliance, at least, in its current configuration.

The disqualification had not only supercharged a shared threat perception among the opposition ranks, it had also conveniently discharged the vexed issue of the PM candidate, enabling the entry of fellow PM aspirers Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar. Thus, the reception of Gandhi’s parliamentary career does complicate the fragile political equations involving INDIA alliance

A straightforward way to assuage the anxieties of its coalition partners would be to rule Gandhi out of contention. Yet, such a renunciation of the PM office would likely to be detrimental to the second goal of Congress strategy; the recovery of the ‘Congress space’.

What do we mean by the Congress space? Simply put, if you take the Indian political space as a whole, and remove Hindu nationalism, Mandal politics and exclusive sub-nationalism, the remaining space of moderate centre-left politics is what can be termed as the Congress space.

Congress has shrivelled over last three decades because it has lost this space to many parties. It is seeking to instrumentalize the increasing national relevance of Gandhis to regain some of this. One can argue that the projection of Rahul Gandhi as PM might help the party in certain states where it faces rival claimants to this space.

The emphasis on Gandhi as a major contender for the PM office may bolster Congress’ vote share in triangular fights in Punjab, Delhi and Telangana. In the bipolar state of Kerala, the party depends substantially on Gandhi to repeat the rout of the Left in the last parliamentary elections. The aura of national leadership around him can also potentially have a marginally impact in states like UP and Bengal, partially in the mobilization of the traditionally Congress base among Muslims and Dalits. One might remember Congress had won a surprising 21 seats in UP in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, partly on account of a pronounced leadership role for Gandhi, presented as some sort of a ‘PM in waiting’. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

India is on the move, on the fast lane. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s focus on boosting infrastructure as an engine of growth, the country added more than 50,000 lane kilometers (length of each new lane built) to its highway system in the past nine years.

New expressways are being built and all weather tunnels drilled in the Himalayas. Last year, vehicle sales set a record of 42.5 lakhs units, and India overtook Japan to become the world’s third largest auto market. The road to attaining the number one position in building infrastructure is being paved with ambition.

“In the next five years, India’s roads will rival America’s,” Nitin Gadkari, minister of road transport and highways said. As Modi’s man tasked with transforming the country’s highway network, Gadkari takes cue from what US President John F. Kennedy said: that American’s road are not good because it is rich, America is rich because its roads are good. The statement is displayed in his Transport Bhavan office, and he repeats it often at public forums. India, he says, recently tipped China to have the world’s second largest road network after the US.

Gadkari, 66, is the only minister to have held the same portfolio since Modi came to power in 2014. In fact, Modi was holding talks for forming his first cabinet, he reportedly asked Gadkari to pick a portfolio. Gadkari, apparently, insisted on holding the “less attractive” road transport and highway ministry, even though he was among the top four leaders who could be part of the powerful cabinet committee on security (comprising the prime minister and the defense, home and finance ministers).

Gadkari fell back on his core strength. When he was public works minister in the BJP-Shiv Sena government in Maharashtra from 1995 to 1999, he had set up the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation (MSRTC) and sought investments from industry bodies, even small ones. He did not follow the conventional route of allowing big builders bag contract by quoting enormous sums. Gadkari’s unconventional approach was so successful that he went on to build 55 flyovers and the Mumbai-Pune Expressway. He not just pioneered the public-private partnership model, but also drafted  a report on building rural roads when Atal Behari Vajpayee was Prime Minister.

The Mumbai-Pune Expressway was the pet project of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray. When the expressway was completed, Thackeray told Gadkari, “I like those who deliver.” The reputation as a minister who delivers has stuck with him even as Modi government completes its 10th year in power. Apart from the highways ministry, Gadkari had earlier handled shipping, Namami Gange, and micro, small and medium enterprises ministries.

When Modi spoke individually to all his ministers after forming his government in 2014, it was known that national highways spanned just 96,000 km constituting only two per cent of the total road length in India. Yet, the highway carried 60 per cent of the traffic burden. A target was set: at least double the length of the highways.

Gadkari got down to the job. He held town-hall-like meetings with officials, engineers and contractors to review 300 stalled projects. “Similar problems were bunched together and a common solution found, which resulted in the ministry going to the cabinet 22 times during the first three years to get things moving,” said an official.

What makes Gadkari the best performing minister in the Modi government? “We work transparent and are result-oriented,” he said. “We work as a team and resolve the problem. I encourage good work. I encourage good work. When there is inspiration for a good cause, people work”.

Gadkari’s 2, Motilal Nehru Marg bungalow was once the office of the National Advisory Council headed by Congress leader Sonia Gandhi. Gadkari has given the building his own touch. Paintings and artwork depicting Hindu deities adorn the walls. Hanuman’s is the largest picture, and bronze statues of Krishna added to the charm. Gadkari also keeps the statues of RSS founder K B Hedgewar and that of Swami Vivekananda.

Gadkari knows the value of building roads. “The huge infrastructure projects implemented by the government led by Prime Minister Modi will help it retain power in 2024,” he says. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Uttar Pradesh’s political waters are calm, for now. Or, perhaps, that is just how it seems, as no grand  alliances have been formed, no active partnerships sought, and there has been no getting together of likeminded parties.

The 2024 elections are still months away. That is too long a time in normally turbulent politics of the state. No party will be first to announce that it is seeking an alliance and thus appear as a needy, weak partner. Dive in a bit tough, and the start of some churn is visible.

The state’s Congress unit, for instance, is buoyed by the success in Karnataka elections and hopes to do better in the five upcoming assembly elections. “For now, our focus is on preparing to contest all 80 seats (in the Lok Sabha) elections”, said senior party leader Veerendra Madan. “There is a series of meetings on; let us see what comes out of them, but the High Command’s decision will be binding on us”.

Neither Madan nor anyone else is willing to go on record to decode how a win in the state would be possible without an alliance that brings together the anti-BJP vote. Especially as a large chunk of the upper-caste vote— once given for the Congress— has long since been swept into the BJP’s rising tide.

While the BJP polled 48.98 per cent of votes in 2019 Lok Sabha elections (a rise of more than 7 per cent from the previous election), the other principal contenders — the BSP and the Samajwadi Party—had combined vote share of slightly over 37 per cent. For the Congress, that figure was slightly over 6 per cent. So, even all three together could not mop up all the anti-BJP vote. Divided, they stand an even poorer chance.

The rationale that works for the Congress is that for its failures (and its solitary seat in the 2019 Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections) it remains a national party with its, or alliance, governments in seven states.  Thus, at the national level, it remains the only force that can take on the BJP.

But there are many things that do not work for the Congress in the state. For one, it lacks credible candidates. In 2017, the year, that the Congress fought elections in an alliance with Samajwadi party and put up candidates in 114 seats, it won just seven. However, the fall in its vote share was lower than its partner had to face. An irate Akhlesh Yadav would later, in run up to the 2022 assembly elections says that the Congress should focus on winning the two seats his party had left for it.

The condescension towards the Congress is not lost on anyone. But as one Congress leader had said, “We are at their lowest. We cannot go any lower. The party will sustain itself if we do poorly in 2024; but what will happen to SP’s identity?  It should stop acting like a big brother.”

Abdul Hafiz Gandhi, Samajwadi Party national spokesman said the congress needed to understand that it would have to cede space to regional forces where the latter are stronger. “We are in the negotiating   stage and will take the best decision for the party”, he said. “It cannot be denied that we are stronger in the state and so should get a larger chunk of the seat share.”

For all the goodwill that Rahul Gandhi’s constant visibility has generated, the state unit seems to be stuck in a dangerous inertia. This was on display in recent municipal elections ( which admittedly are no barometer of state or national politics). Its own candidates had woes that touched upon the lack of the party’s seriousness. “Candidates were left completely on their own. The party did even spend on banners or flags,” said one defeated contender. Yet, to the party’s own surprise, it won 18 seats and also polled an impressive number of votes in a handful of others to come second. So that sense of the electorate looking at the Congress may be reality, but without the party nurturing it and being combative, it will die.

The BSP, as always, is weirdest of all, with even its spokespersons now avoiding questions. One said “Behenji” will open her cards by December.” In a recent party meeting in Delhi, Mayawati’s focus was on sector committees, which took after a certain number of booths. Some organizational changes are also on so that while the party keeps promoting young talent, the more experienced ones are not left behind.(IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

To understand the BJP’s rapid political moves across India, think back to 1996. That year sagging under the weight of a raft of corruption, scandals and internal defections, the incumbent Congress went to polls weakened. This allowed the BJP to vault into pole position, becoming for the first time the single-largest party in the Lok Sabha. With unprecedented success, Atal Behari Vajpayee took oath as Prime Minister but quickly found that navigating the quicksand of coalition politics was far trickier than the heat and dust of the campaign trail. For 13 days, the party hunted for allies to push it pass the majority mark but to no avail, eventually forcing Vajpayee to resign.

By the time United Front Government, formed soon after, wobbled two years later, the party had learnt its lesson. Though the 1998 elections only gave it 20-odd seats more, it stitched together a coalition, the NDA that the opposition was unable to match electorally or politically. And though allies had a substantially say in the NDA between 1998 and 2004, it ensured a stable non-Congress government (of course with one blip, when Vajpayee government fell by a single vote in 1999, due to tactics of Jayalalithaa) for the first time since independence.

Think also back to 2004. That year riding high on a string of policy successes and positive rating of the PM, the BJP called for early general elections.

BJP ignored quiet moves by the Congress—having slumped to its tally lowest in half a century—that painstakingly stitched together seat sharing arrangement in state after state. It emerged that feedback from the ground was either flawed or was inadequately addressed. When the results were announced, after 2004 Lok Sabha elections the Congress was able to spring a double surprise—not only did it do much better than what was expected, but it was also able to leverage its pre-poll legwork into establishing a stable majority coalition, the United Progressive Alliance.

The contrasting examples of these two general elections proved to the BJP the importance of grassroots and coalition building—two connected and intertwined concepts that are driving the party’s current push to recruit allies and expand its footprint across India.

Sample this—in the past week, the BJP engineered a split in Maharashtra’s the Nationalist Congress Party, made overtures to lure the Janata Dal (secular) into the NDA, reached out to Samajwadi Party (SP) ally Om Prakash Rajbhar in U.P, inducted Hindustan Awam Morcha into the NDA, and set off tasks about instability within Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United). And, it is in talks to get back into the alliance two big parties that it had a bitter falling out with—the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab and the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. Even in Telangana, which goes to polls later this year, there is a buzz that Bharat Rashtra Samiti may keep its distance from the Opposition grouping and keep channels of communication open with the BJP.

Note that these efforts are not limited to regions where the BJP is unsure of its prospects. It includes UP — where the party is in a comfortable position, with the SP struggling to expand its social coalition and the BSP a shadow of its former self, but continues to focus on the eastern districts with two existing allies and a third in the works, to keep backward communities in its fold— and Maharashtra, where it appears unsure about the prospects of the new Shiv Sena and may be hoping to tide over possible losses with Ajit Pawar who has an established base in western Maharashtra. And, it includes Punjab where protests around farm laws forced the BJP out of state politics and cost it its oldest ally, the SAD, only for the party to now try and claw its way back – and Andhra Pradesh where the party has little presence and has held a transactional relationship with the ruling YSR Congress party.

All these moves made by BJP to bring new allies into NDA prove that the BJP leadership has taken up very seriously the challenge from the united opposition in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah will be doing their best to expand the network of NDA to the maximum extent possible covering all the states before the Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The air in Patna was thick with pre-monsoon moisture and a buzz about a meeting that could heavily impact next year’s Lok Sabha elections. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who played host at his 1 Anne Marg residence, had posters of several opposition party leaders put up throughout the city. The party units themselves put up banners welcoming their leaders; the BJP had organized protest deriding the alliance effort.

One such banner outside the Janata Dal (United) headquarters said “Aagaaz hua badlaav hoga (A beginning has been made; there will be change). It aptly captured the message the participants wanted to convey.

With just eight months to go for the general elections, top leaders of 15 political parties got into a huddle on June 23. It was first such meeting of the anti-BJP bloc to work out a joint strategy against Prime Minister Narendra Modi. it lasted nearly four hours.

Chief ministers, former chief ministers and regional stalwarts were among the 32 leaders at the meeting. The prominent sentiment was bonhomie and regard, even though there was brief altercation between the Congress and the Aam Admi party over a central ordinance. The aim of the meeting, as Nitish Kumar said right at the outset, was not to discuss a joint program, but to assert that the parties were ready to come together for a big fight.

Patna was chosen as the venue because some parties were uneasy attending a meeting that the Congress, their political rival, would convene. It also gave the parties reason to recall that Patna was where earlier Jan Andolans had started. The reference was to Jayaprakash Narayan’s movement in the 1970s against Indira Gandhi government; it had brought disparate parties together under a common banner.

“There is consensus on fighting the election together”, Nitish Kumar said after the meeting, “Who will fight where will be decided in a meeting that will be held soon. But we have all agreed to be together”.

Nitish has criss-crossed the county in the past few months, meeting leaders of various parties in an effort to build a common platform. Going by the optics, he has been successful – top leaders of the Trinamool Congress and the Left, and the Congress and AAP, staunch rivals otherwise, united in the same room.

Freed from the need to get into issues that such as sharing seats, the leaders went out of their way to come across as accommodating. After hosts Nitish and Rashtriya Janata Dal President Lalu Prasad spoke, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge was called upon to speak. The Congress was after all, the largest party in the bloc. Kharge, however, reportedly said that his party would like to listen and speak at the end. The others appreciated this gesture.

Sources said that Kharge and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal got into an argument over the ordinance, with the latter insisting that the Congress publicly state its stand on the issue the same day. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee stepped in as referee, suggesting that the two leaders, discuss the matter separately over a cup of tea. She reportedly said Kharge had already promised that his party would not support anything unconstitutional. The Patna gathering, she said, was to look at issues of greater national importance. Rahul Gandhi, it said, appreciated her intervention.

There was apparently no discussion on who the convener of the grouping would be; there had been speculation that the role would go to Nitish Kumar.

Rahul, reportedly, said he had come to Patna with a clean slate and was not hanging on past likes or dislikes. He also spoke of the need to be flexible in the face of inherent differences.

Kejriwal also stressed on the need for united fight. He apparently said that there should be a one-on-one fight, and the nation came first and party second. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

May 15 was the 25th anniversary of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which was formed in 1998. On May 26 Prime Minister Narendra Modi reminded his party that no alliance other than NDA has remained intact for a quarter century. And he was correct.

While it’s right that the NDA in its current form has completed 25 years, the first avatar of the alliance came about much earlier—in 1983—but it did not work and collapsed just a year later.

Those days, much like it is today, the ruling party at the centre was in a formidable form and the Opposition was struggling to find its feet. The Congress had returned to power in 1980 and later, the Indira Gandhi Government had sacked some non-Congress state governments. The Janata Party, which had come to power in 1977 as an amalgamation of parties with different ideologies, was splintered into groups. In April 1980, those who joined the Janata Party from Bhartiya Jana Sangh (BJS) decided to form a new party, which they named the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

Efforts to form alliances against the central government gathered pace—not very different from the situation now, when 15 non BJP parties met in Patna to come up with strategy ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

As regards NDA, after Indira government had completed nearly half its tenure, these efforts were hastened. In the meantime, some states saw fresh Assembly polls and important changes happened in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. In Jammu and Kashmir Farooq Abdullah took over as chief minister on September 8 1982, the day his father Sheikh Abdullah passed away. While his government continued in 1983 Assembly polls, in Karnataka, a new government under Janata Party was formed with Ramkrishna Hegde as chief minister on January 10, 1983. In Andhra Pradesh, Telugu film star turned—politician N T Rama Rao of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) took oath as chief minister on January 9, 1983. In the coming years, these three chief ministers would play key roles in Opposition unity efforts.

The churn of those years saw the emergence of leaders and the decline of others. Chaudhary Charan Singh, who had split the Janata Party to form the Janata Party (Secular) to take oath as Prime Minister in 1979, later renamed party Lok Dal. The Lok Dal was further divided in Lok Dal (Charan Singh) and Lok Dal (Karpoori Thakur). Several in the opposition were one-man parties or rode the popularity of a single leader. Congress (Jagjivan) or Jagjivan Ram, the Democratic Socialist Party of H N Bahuguna, the Janwadi party of Charanjit Yadav and Lok Dal (K), which had leaders like George Fernandez, Madhu Limaye, Devi Lal and Biju Patnaik.

Efforts were on to form a single party merging the Janata Party, the DSP and the Janwadi party, but Morarji Desai had some reservations against the move. Chandra Shekhar headed the Janata party and in August 1983, intense talk were on for a possible alliance among “progressive and socialist” national and regional parties over the merger of some of them. The United Front (UF) was formed later, towards the end of 1983, with the Janata Party being a big player in the alliance.

At the same time, there were efforts for the merger of two big players of the opposition – the Lok Dal (C) and BJP. Talks were on between BJP chief Atal Behari Vajpayee and Charan Singh. Still scarred from its experience in the Janata Party, BJP kept declining Charan Singh’s proposal. In a meetings at its national executive in Bhubaneswar on February 12-14-1982, the BJP said it was against a merger with any other party, but clarified that it would follow the policy of “meaningful cooperation”.

While Charan Singh kept demanding a merger, Vajpayee clarified in Shimla in April, 1983 that he and his party were against any sort of merger. However, the BJP kept raising the need for national democratic front against the ruling congress (I) and meetings between leaders of the BJP and Lok Dal (C) started a fresh. In the mid-August 1983, the NDA was formed with these two players. As per the agreement, Charan Singh became leader of the NDA in the Lok Sabha and L K Advani in the Rajya Sabha. And that is how the NDA was first born.

With the formation of the NDA, with its two parties, and the UF, with its nine parties, efforts were on to form an understanding between both alliances in order to fight against the Congress (I).

In October 1983, J&K Chief Minister, Farooq Abdulla hosted a meeting of Opposition leaders in Srinagar. After the meeting, a resolution on centre-state ties was adopted. The meeting was attended by Opposition stalwarts, Parkash Singh Badal, Chandrajit Yadav, Biju Patnaik, Jagjivan Ram and N T Rama Rao. Despite being invited, Charan Singh and Vajpayee did not attend the meeting. Later, they claimed that they received the invite quite late.

But the NDA, formed with an eye on the elections, did not survive long. In August 1984, merely a year after it was formed, both parties started making conflicting statements. Vajpayee and Charan Singh would often say that they were unsure about the future of NDA. While BJP decided to go it alone, Charan Singh formed a new party, the Dalit Mazdoor Kisan Party (DMKP).

The assassination of Indira Gandhi changed in October 1984 the political scene. Riding on the wave of sympathy, the Congress swept to power. In 1984 elections, Rajiv Gandhi took over as the prime minister. From 1985 onwards BJP tried to expand its base on its own keeping its distance from the Janata Dal led parties who were also fighting the Congress. The BJP got big success in 1989 Lok Sabha elections which led to the shortlived V. P Singh government supported from outside by both the BJP and the Left.

The BJP leadership was feeling the need for an alliance since then but a formal NDA or the second and the present NDA took shape in 1998. This helped the BJP to lead the government at the centre after the1999 Lok Sabha elections. In the last 25 years since its founding, many partners have left and new ones have joined. Now on the eve of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is making efforts again as the Party feels that the fight is going to be tough and they need allies. NDA is getting big importance to the saffrons now to fight the non-BJP opposition. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Theatre has always been an integral part of politics as it now allows political leaders their private motivations and their public motivations. Sharad Pawar has employed all the skills, gathered over five decades of political experience, seamlessly to pull of three-act power play.

Act one was the dramatic resignation, from the post of party president, conjuring up widespread sympathy of the party’s, core voter base and proclamation of loyalty from its second-rung leadership. Act two was the rescinding of the resignation, leaving Pawar with greater authority to remould the party. The third act came on one Saturday, where he executed that renewed legitimacy to execute a fundamental shift in direction of the hulking NCP ship.

The long standing issue of dynastic succession has been resolved for now. A month back, nephew Ajit Pawar had seemed to be the natural legatee, firmly in control of the party levers in Maharashtra. The resignation act tarnished junior Pawar’s future claims by implicitly painting him as rebellious, volatile, and possibly part of a shadowy conspiracy within the party.

Today, their heir apparent is daughter Supriya Sule. Previously, she has been a relatively low- key MP, charged with back room manoeuvres in Delhi. Sule is now just the working president, but also the head of the central election authority and party in-charge of Maharashtra. This makes

However, it is not clear whether the precipitating factor for this leadership shift came from nephew Ajit Pawar’s reported attempts to break up the opposition MVA alliances (and possibly the NCP itself). A master strategist Sharad Pawar seized the opportunity to bring about te transition in NCP leadership without the knowledge of Ajit Pawar.

The shift in favour of daughter Sule was inherently risky because similar attempts had felled powerful regional satraps before. In Andhra Pradesh, TDP founder N T Rama Rao had been cast aside by son-in-law Chandra Babu Naidu when he appeared to be delegating political authority to second wife Lakshmi Parvati.

In spite of the formidable power commanded by N T Rama Rao as the sitting CM, not to mention his unmatched personal charisma, the palace coup was supported by most MLAs and party supporters. This was because Naidu assumed the elevated mantle of the largest of the party interest whereas Rao was left with the unseemly wreath of personal devotion. A similarly story could be told of Mulayam Singh Yadav, marginalized by his son and the then UP CM Akhilesh Yadav. The senior Yadav was seen to be backing brother Shivpal Yadav, out of personal loyalty and over the interest of the party.

In Sharad Pawar’s case, the preemptive resignation made him look noble, while showing up, his nephew as a grasping, self-interested leader. Had Sharad Pawar acted without pretext of the ‘impending BJP-led conspiracy’, his manoeuvres might have been similarly characterized as eternal hunger for power or indeed an emotionally rooted attempt to secure the future of his daughter.

Ajit Pawar, if he turns rebellious, may now struggle to attract, a large number of party MLAs. He might also be wary of facing a poplar backlash as well as the disapproval of the rejigged leadership. The appointment of Praful Patel, perceived to be a key controller of the treasury of the party, as the other working president, is also relevant in this context.

The revamping of the party leadership also contains a shift-in-emphasis with regard to the ideological moorings of the party. The resignation theatre allowed Pawar to lay claim to the ‘progressive’ legacy of the party, however, muddled that may have been in practice.

For close to two decades, the traditional Maratha base of the party had been dwindling, an outcome of urbanization and professionalization of dominant peasant community. Outside western Maharashtra, the Marathas now split their vote between the main four parties of the state. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

It was clear from the get-go when NCP chief Sharad Pawar decided to resign as the President a month ago. The three-day drama that saw Pawar take back his resignation as a gesture of deference to the party members now seems aimed at a predictable outcome — sidelining his nephew and de facto no 2, Ajit Pawar, to instal a member of his direct bloodline. The scripted act gave him the moral authority to appoint daughter Supriya Sule as the NCP’s working president, making it clear who will take over the mantle of the party.

Make no mistake, Praful Patel’s simultaneous appointment will likely to be temporary; merely to smoothen the jagged edges of this transition. Ajit Pawar should be only as surprised as the Senior Pawar might have been during 2019 early morning swearing-in with Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra. In power politics, players should always be prepared for such moves.

But beyond the machinations in silver Oaks bungalow, the switch holds important takeaways for Indian politics, because it’s the latest in a generation transition that India’s family– run regional parties are undergoing. Since 2013, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi have become de facto leaders of the BJP and Congress, respectively, a raft, of regional parties is undergoing the generational churn.

Some have emerged unscathed — such as M K Stalin of the DMK — and others with control over the party but diminished electoral footprint such as Akhilesh Yadav of the SP. In some, such as Bharat Rashtra Samiti or Trinamool Congress (TMC), the transition plan is clear but in progress. And in others, such as Biju Janata Dal or YSR Congress party, line of succession remains unclear.

The succession pattern in these regional parties indicate three major path ways.

The first is where the leadership transition didn’t spark any major challenge to their heir apparent (the child of the party founder). This includes the National Conference (the Abdullah family). The Rashtriya Janata Dal (Lalu Yadav family), the National people’s party (P S Sangma’s family), and the DMK (M Karunanidhi’s family), among others. There was a clear indication from the patriarch about the successor, and other family members and party leader fell in Line. The TMC appears headed this way.

In the second case, the nominated successor was challenged either from within the family or any party leader. For example, Akhilesh Yadav had to wrestle with his uncle Shivpal Yadav to take control of the SP and Manpreet Badal had to leave the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) to make way for his cousin, Sukhbir Badal. Similarly, H D Deve Gowda’s trusted Lieutenant, Siddaramaiah, couldn’t see a future for him in the Janata Dal (Secular) with the rise of H D Kumaraswamy, and joined the Congress.

In the third case, however, the succession drama consumed political parties and took toll on them. In the Shiv Sena, for example, Raj Thackeray has to first resign to make way for his cousin Uddhav Thackeray. And then, the party split vertically last year after Eknath Shinde rebelled as it became clear that Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aditya was being groomed to take control of the party.

A similar development played out in north. While Om Prakash Chautala faced no major threats when he succeed his father Chaudhary Devi Lal, his two sons could not keep party united. Today, a weakened Indian National Lok Dal is led by his younger son Abhay Singh Chautala, while his offshoot, Jananayak Janata (JPP), is under the tutelage of elder son Ajay Chautala and his son, Deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala. Similarly, the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) is still caught in a factional battle between Chirag Paswan, and his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

The weather is unpleasant in central India these days, with sudden bursts of storms and rain adding humidity to the high temperatures. The same holds true for the political atmosphere here in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where elections are due in five months.

The BJP and Congress are preparing to battle it out once again in the two states, which are largely bipolar. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said his party would win 150 seats ( of the total 230) in Madhya Pradesh, just like it did in Karnataka. The BJP has adopted a resolution about winning more than 200 seats. In Chattisgarh, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has repeatedly spoken about the Congress’ aim to hold on to its current tally of 71 seats, whereas the BJP claims that it would win a clear majority.

Political watchers feel that Madhya Pradesh will see a tight contest, with the Congress in a far better position compared with 2018 and the BJP facing anti-incumbency and internal dissent. They say the Congress might actually have an edge over the BJP at this point, while the BJP’s biggest hope is Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity. As far Chattisgarh, the Congress government riding high on its welfare schemes and the Chattisgarh pride factor, is placed comfortably against the surprisingly demoralized BJP. In both states, the selection of candidates will be crucial.

Political commentator Rashid Kidwai said the uncharacteristic aggression shown by the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, evident from Rahul Gandhi himself claiming 150 seat, was quite interesting. “The party seems encouraged by Karnataka results and it sees similarities in Madhya Pradesh-–anti incumbency against the BJP, several local issues to raise and a seasoned leader in Kamal Nath. There is no major internal strife. Karnataka has shown that some of the steps taken by the BJP, like making a tribal President are not working”, he said

The BJP is roiled by internal strife. Ticket seekers in the crucial Gwalior-Chambal region are major headache for the party. Kidwai said those who lost in 2018 to Congress leaders who defected to the BJP and got re-elected from same seats would want their seats back. “There are rumours that Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, whose defection was instrumental in the formation of BJP government in 2020, might be seeking tickets for 50-60 supporters. Such internal strife is something the BJP is not used to.

There is also no clarity about continuation of V.D. Sharma, as state BJP chief as he seems to have failed in checking internal dissent. “Chouhan is depending on personal charisma and new schemes, but the Congress is quick to find counters. The Congress also looks confident and aggressive under Kamal Nath,” said political analyst Manish Dixit. He said former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh was working in the background, especially in the 66 seats that the Congress failed to win in the last three times. “The Congress is also pinning its hope on the second phase of Bharat Jodo Yatra,” said Dixit.

The BJP’s biggest strength is Chouhan, while the Congress has a big advantage with Kamal Nath’s leadership. “Both parties will do well to give their local leadership the upper hand which seems to have worked in other state elections,” said political analyst Girija Shanker. “Voters rely more on local leadership for getting their aspiration fulfilled. Too much interference from or dependence on national leadership could actually be harmful.”

Kidwai said the Congress was better placed in Chattisgarh, as there was no one like Chouhan in the BJP camp. Shankar, too, said the race appeared to be one-sided. The existing seat difference—Congress’ 71 against the BJP’s 14—is too wide a gap, especially in the absence of charismatic local leaders. Baghel, meanwhile, has established himself as the ‘son of soil’ and has become adept in playing up ‘Chhattisgarhi’ identity and pride.

Chattisgarh BJP chief spokesperson Ajay Chandrakar said that the Congress perception in favour of the Congress was a result of a huge public relations exercise,, while the BJP was active on the ground. “We will simultaneously conduct a mega contact campaign on the completion of nine years of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and also kisan chaupals (meaning with farmers) till June 10 in all assembly segments”.

The Congress said Baghel government had fulfilled over 90 per cent of the elector promises and also brought in additional schemes. “Our government worked in health and education sectors and took care of basic needs by providing subsidized rice through ration shops”, said Sushil Anand Shukla, chairman, communications department, Chattisgarh Congress. He explained how Baghel managed to revive the culture and identity pride of Chattisgarh, and also worked on religious project like Ram Van Gaman Path scheme. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed his Ninth Year as Prime Minister. Look at how he has already left his imprint on India’s history, forcing a shift in how politics in practiced and governance in delivered.

In 1995, Narendra Modi shifted base to Delhi from Gujarat after he was made the BJP’s general secretary (organisation). His reputation preceded him, as he had already won accolades for his organization acumen, scripting victories in his home state. Modi would soon usher in a generational shift in the BJP’s collective thinking.

“We heard that he was very interested and well versed in technology”, said Manohar Lal Khattar,” Haryana chief minister who was the BJP’s organizational secretary in the state when Modi moved to Delhi. “One fine morning when unpacked, one had what looked, like a TV. He told us it was monitor. This was 28 years ago, when people hardly knew computers.”

At Modi’s instance, Khattar learnt to work computers. He fed into a wealth of party—related information, provoking questions of whether the entire party had been “captured inside it and its keys thrown away”.

Those were early days of information technology. Two decades later, Modi brought his fascination of technology to transform governance at the national level.

“Technology has become a powerful tool of empowerment to remove imbalance and promote social justice”, Modi said recently. “There was a time when technology was beyond the reach of common citizen and things like debit and credit cards were status symbols. But today, UPI has become a new norm because of its simplicity. Today, India is among the countries with the highest data use.”

The use of technology has been the hall mark of Modi’s engagement with the people—from the party conducting its biggest drive, to Prime Minister using social media to bypass traditional instrument of communication. Even the biggest benefit of the much-debated demonstrated demonetization in 2016 was rapid digitization of financial transactions.

As Modi entered his 10th year as Prime Minister, he has already left his imprint on the country’s political history. He has forced a shift in how politics is practiced and governance is delivered. The epochal challenged changes of past nine years have been foundational, with Modi making a conscious break from the past. He has left his mark on schemes that were initiated, and structures that have been built. Two of the most enduring such as Modi-era structures are in Delhi — the new Parliament building and the brand — new exhibition-cum-convention centre at Pragati Maidan, where the Prime Minister  will hold   meeting of  G20 leaders.

What differentiates Modi’s legacy from those of previous prime ministers is his ability to bring synchronization between capitalism and socialism, the country’s two warring —economic streams. Modi has been able to dish them out from the same platform, without having to play a political price for it. He has ensured ease of doing business, scaled up start-ups from the from mere 100 in 2014 to more than a lakh now, and empower the industry to usher in changes so that wealth flows into economy and wedded it with socialist-era welfarism through schemes for farmers, women, deprived sections and poor.

“India is taking pride in following Indian growth models”, says Union Minister Bhupender Yadav.  “Culturally, we have ushered in a process of returning to roots. The nation is working with “can do” approach”.

According to Union Minister Kiren Rijiju, India’s global profile has grown. Leaders, he said, often ask him about India’s success stories in the field of technology, manufacturing and social welfare.

In fact, Modi asks all corporate honchos from abroad calling on him about their plans to start manufacturing in India. “The Prime Minister is direct and focused”, said the CEO at a tech company after meeting Modi recently. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

What are some of the implications of the Congress’s emphasis and creditable win in Karnataka for national politics? At one level it would be unwise to extrapolate from state to national elections. The logic of these elections is not always aligned. Nevertheless, the Karnataka results have implications for how we understand the evolution of national politics.

The first and perhaps most important lesson is that BJP will find it, in most places, harder to win genuinely bipolar contests, where third parties are in the state of decline. This is for a simple reason that in a bi-polar contest, the BJP has to polarize more of Hindu votes and in some cases, as many as, 50 per cent to win. Even in most communalized of states that is a tall order. Not all the J D (S) votes shifted to the BJP. But the fact is that the Karnataka elections became de facto less tri-polar. So the question is, whether this condition can be successfully replicated elsewhere, not just at the level of a state but the local level. This is no guarantee of success. But de facto

The second trend to observe is that the Opposition’s best hope is to chip away at BJP’s governance. The Karnataka BJP had scored too many own goals for it to be rescued. It did more or less everything wrong. It has a chief ministerial face, who did not have a mass base or even command over the party. Increasingly, the BJP is going to face this challenge. The theory of the BJP model, like the model of good governance in all regional parties that have endured, is not to reduce corruption.

The model is to centralize corruption. This also has the advantage of cutting out intermediaries for most services. You can then combine this with a couple of schemes to project good governance. Increasingly, the BJP is finding it hard to hold onto this aspiration and getting stuck in the quicksand of intermediaries. Part of this is driven by venality, as politics often is; but part of this is driven by the need to placate different constituencies (as we are increasingly seen in Haryana). This also makes it vulnerable. As the party expands, it paradoxically becomes more brittle at the state level. But this will also be a challenge to the incoming Congress government.

The third lesson is the consistent welfare story. One of the most remarkable shifts in Indian politics has been the expansion of the welfare state. This has different fiscal implications in different states. Frankly, these are far more significant than caste, which was often an endogenous response to the absence of any other form of politics. But most states now have fiscal resources to send creditable welfare signals to their constituents. This is true across all states, from Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan to Mamata Banerjee in Bengal and Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. Much of this welfarism is for good; it is universal in character, mostly directed at goods and forms of fiscal support that are empowering and should be looking at as long-term investments, rather than as handouts.

The fourth lesson is the clear divide between the politics of privilege and the politics of the poor. One of the remarkable things about the Congress victory in Karnataka is that support for it cuts across classes. But, at least, in Karnataka, there is overwhelming evidence that the minorities, the socially and economically marginally groups supported the Congress in far greater proportion. The big question is whether this divide portends a national fault line that can be exploited. Or rather the question to be asked is under what conditions the messaging can this become a national fault line?

The fifth lesson is that it is too immature to talk of the repudiation of Hindutva by Karnataka voters. There is a rather simplistic binary that we often use: Was it Hindutva or was it governance? This is an unproductive way of posing the question. Political competition is about creating credibility on a broad front. If the BJP had administratively governed better, Hindutva would have been consolidated as a consequence. You could pose the question the other way round. Despite a government that, by all account, was a disaster, the BJP has still managed to hold onto its vote share in Karnataka. Even in a campaign where everything went wrong, the long-term changes the BJP has brought about in cultural preferences should worry us. The most you can say is that just Hindutva alone will help you retain a base but not push you over the margins of victory. This is small comfort. But it will not be enough to secure either Karnataka or India from the rising tide of communalism.

The sixth lesson is that political identities are not over-determined by social identity. Even the success of Hindutva was premised on unsetting existing social identities, and exploiting the opportunities provided by the individualization of the voter. Even in this election, it seems, that votes of even a group like Lingayats were significantly distributed across the BJP and Congress. What this suggests is that politics is not mostly a game of social engineering, but a game of generating new political identities.

Even though the BJP’s vote share has remained the same, it looks like the fixity of that number also disguises a lot of churning; it lost a whole lot of voters that had previously voted for it but gained new once as well. Congress has a coalition of the marginalized, but it has also appealed to a significant number of privileged groups, to secure such an emphatic win. The Indian voter is exercising genuine political choices, not simply acting out of a social script. Or rather it appears to act on a social script only when parties offer no other choice. This should be a moment for progressive politics beyond caste to capitalize on. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

What are some of the implications of the Congress’s emphasis and creditable win in Karnataka for national politics? At one level it would be unwise to extrapolate from state to national elections. The logic of these elections is not always aligned. Nevertheless, the Karnataka results has implications for how we understand the evolution of national politics.

The first and perhaps most important lesson is that BJP will find it, in most places, harder to win genuinely bipolar contests, where third parties in the state decline. This is for a simple reason that in a bi-polar contest, the BJP has to polarize more of Hindu votes and in some cases, as many as, 50 per cent to win. Even in most communalized of states that is a tall order. Not all the J D (S) votes shifted to the BJP. But the fact is that the Karnataka elections became de facto less tri-polar. So the question is, whether this condition can be successfully replicated elsewhere, not just at the level of a state but the local level. This is no guarantee of success. But de facto bipolar contests are at least one of the enabler for an opposition victory.

The second trend to observe is that the Opposition’s best hope is to chip away at BJP’s governance. The Karnataka BJP had scored too many own goals for it to be rescued. It did more or less everything wrong. It has a chief ministerial face, who did not have a mass base or even command over the party. Increasingly, the BJP is going to face this challenge. The theory of the BJP model, like the model of good governance in all regional parties that have endured, is not to reduce corruption. The model is to centralize corruption. This also has the advantage of cutting out intermediaries for most services. You can then combine this with a couple of schemes to project good governance. Increasingly, the BJP is finding it hard to hold onto this aspiration and getting stuck in the quicksand of intermediaries. Part of this is driven by venality, as politics often is; but part of this is driven by the need to placate different constituencies (as we are increasingly seen in Haryana). This also makes it vulnerable. As the party expands, it paradoxically becomes more brittle at the state level. But this will also be a challenge to the incoming Congress government.

The third lesson is the consistent welfare story. One of the most remarkable shifts in Indian politics has been the expansion of the welfare state. This has different fiscal implications in different states. Frankly, these are far more significant than caste, which was often an endogenous response to the absence of any other form of politics. But most states now have fiscal resources to send creditable welfare signals to their constituents. This is true across all states, from Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan to Mamata Banerjee in Bengal and Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. Much of this welfarism is for good; it is universal in character, mostly directed at goods and forms of fiscal support that are empowering and should be looking at as long-term investments, rather than as handouts.

The fourth lesson is the clear divide between the politics of privilege and the politics of the poor. One of the remarkable things about the Congress victory in Karnataka is that support for it cuts across classes. But, at least, in Karnataka, there is overwhelming evidence that the minorities, the socially and economically marginally groups supported the Congress in far greater proportion. The big question is whether this divide portends a national fault that can be exploited. Or rather the question to be asked is under what conditions the messaging can this become a national fault line?

The fifth reason is that it is too immature to talk of the repudiation of Hindutva by Karnataka voters. There is a rather simplistic binary that we often use: Was it Hindutva or was it governance? This is an unproductive way of posing the question. Political competition is about creating credibility on a broad front. If the BJP had administratively governed better, Hindutva would have been consolidated as a consequence. You could pose the question the other way round. Despite a government that, by all account, was a disaster, the BJP has still managed to hold onto its vote share in Karnataka. Even in a campaign where everything went wrong, the long-term changes the BJP has brought about in cultural preferences should worry us. The most you can say is that just Hindutva alone will help you retain a base but not push you over the margins of victory. This is small comfort. But it will not be enough to secure either Karnataka or India from the rising tide of communalism.

The sixth lesson is that political identities are not over-determined by social identity. Even the success of Hindutva was premised on unsetting existing social identities, and exploiting the opportunities provided by the individualization of the voter. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

We are at Mumbai’s newest landmark, Nita Mukesh Ambani Cultural Centre, on a Monday evening. Preparations are in full swing for award winning Broadway musical—Rodgers and Hammerstein’s The Magic of Music – which will begin playing early May. Ambani says this will be first time an international Broadway production will be staged in India, and the entire team has flown down from the US and stay almost for almost a month. Nita Ambani, who is personally involved with everything at the NMACC, has just held Muhurat Puja ahead of the show, after which she meets us. It is 8 pm on International Workers’ Day, and Ambani looks radiant in a pink sari, as if her day has begun. She is self—effacing and gracious as she warms up for a candid conversation, along with a mug of coffee.

“I don’t even have any concept of what I do at this moment ….between Mumbai Indians (her IPL team) and the state Puja for the sound of music. They said it is better than any theatre they have performed in. We should do anything that brings Indian art and culture into spot light. I talk as a mother and grandmother. We don’t want to loose all this,” she says, her eye sparkling with excitement.

The NMACC, which is a part of the larger Jio World Centre in Mumbai’s plus business district of Bandra Kurla complex , consists of the 2,000-seater Grand Theatre, the 250-seater The studio Theatre and the 125-seater the Cube. The aim, says Ambani, is to provide an accessible space for the Indian exhibition of Indian and international art and culture.

“I am sure that soon Indians will no longer have to fly to New York or London, to broadways or West End to enjoy best of theatre. My and Mukesh’s dream is to take our shows to Broadway. I think we should do our productions given that we have the skills and the talents”, she says.

Ambani performed on stage at the grand Theatre on the opening day of the NMACC. . Recalling the hours, she put into practice, she says, “I was practicing for the NMACC opening and I used and make Aadhya, Isha’s four-and-a-half month daughter, lie down on the cot thinking, let her soak in whatever she can absorb. I tell them, for me the interest (grandchildren) is more important and more precious than the principal (children).”

In a interview, Ambani talks about her passion for dance, sports, philanthropy and more. She said that she had gone  to Sydney and saw an opera. And  went on a guided  tour to see not only theatre but also transport and logistics.  According  to her ‘all of us had gone  to the Kodak theatre which is now called Dolby. Then Nita Ambani said

“Why can’t India have something like this? We have such a rich legacy of arts, including performing arts and visual arts in our country. That is where the dream started. I thought this is the place where I could do something for the country in the realm of the arts. It is actually a tribute to India and an ode to our heritage that we have all inherited.”

Nita Ambani continued ‘I then started ideating with Mukesh about what we could so to bring the artist into the spot. For the opening show, most people told men to just get a Broadway production. But I was very sure that I wanted Indian artists and Indian art and that’s how ( the musical) Civilization to Nation was born. I roped in my friend Feroz Abbasi Khan, whom I studied with in college. We used to act in college, plays together and that time there was nothing for amateur artists. We really had no platform, no money or anywhere to display our talents. That is how the whole idea of The Cube and The studio, which are incubators of talent, came about. They are very reasonably prized (tickets) and I think they are the soul of the NMACC. We worked nine years to put this together’. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

Congress has romped home in Karnataka convincingly ousting the BJP in the state assembly elections   held on May 10. This means there will be no presence of BJP in south India in any state government and it will remain only a North Indian party. If this trend continues, the Congress may do well in several states including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due this year. The Congress Legislature party is meeting tomorrow in Bengaluru to elect a leader.

Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo yatra and his changed image of pappu to a mature leader may have helped Congress party in Karnataka to get a majority.

In the most ideological polls in Karnataka, most of the exit polls indicated that Congress has a clear edge over the BJP in run up to 2024 Lok Sabha. In a strength string of recent state polls, the practice has been for the BJP to raise its Hindutva pitch, which other parties tended to skirt around this issue.

The Congress released its manifesto that likened the Bajrang Dal to the Popular Front of India, and promised action, which could include a ban, against organizations spewing hate. The BJP responded on predictable lines, with Prime Minister Narendra  Modi equating a ban on Bajrang Dal to a ban on Bajrang Bali or Lord Hanuman.

His flash point was the latest evidence of the fact that both parties have built their strategies for this assembly elections with a longer—term view of their respective ideologies. For the BJP, while an emphasis on Hindutva was expected, what was less so was the centralized version of this ideology that it has followed in this campaign. Over the past two decades, the BJP has tried to merge its version of Hindutva with local Hindu institutions of various shades and leanings, often ceding to the  latter. In this round, there has been no such leeway.

Some state BJP leaders with influence in maths and other local Hindu institutions have not even been given tickets. And there has been an insistence that a vote for the BJP is a vote for  PM Modi. Home Minister Amit Shah made this clear when, after introducing a candidate in a constituency, he stated that the vote was not for the candidate but for PM Modi.

The Congress has stuck closer to its ideological moorings than it has done for decades. Building its strategy around Rahul Gandhi’s emphasis on the first line of the Constitution that India is a union of states, the party has provided a prominent place for the state leadership. Its promises were made in the form of guarantee signed by the Leader of Opposition. Siddaramaiah, and state unit President D K Kumar. In his new role as Congress Chief, Mallikarjun Kharge was given a public role much later in the campaign even as the Gandhis were mobilized. The economic narrative was also built around protecting the state’s institutions, symbolized by the perceived battle between Karnataka Milk Federation, Nandini and more prominent national brand of Gujarat origin, Amul.

The long view taken by both parties may indicate that they are looking beyond the current round in Karnataka to the national elections next year. The   BJP has left little room for doubt that it will fight the next parliamentary elections on a aversion of Hindutva symbolized by the person of PM Modi and his welfare push. About sidelining the old guard of leaders during a state election. it has reiterated its overwhelming confidence in the image of PM Modi. The Congress, in contrast, is using the Karnataka election to present itself as national party sensitive to local concerns. As distinct from the BJP or a national alliance of regional parties, the Congress would like to present itself in 2024 as a national party of local leaders. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

It did not take long for the rethink on the resignation. Allowing the hysteria to last just a few hours seemed more in keeping with Sharad Pawar’s style than his dramatic announcement on Tuesday evening that he was resigning from the President-ship of the party he had founded and which is identified with him. One didn’t think the NCP chief, whose pronouncements are known for their practicality, was the kind which   would encourage the melodrama that invariably follows such announcement.

Old timers would recall the tearful scenes as the Janata Party leader and Karnataka CM Ramakrishna Hedge’s many resignations in the ‘80s. Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray indulged in this gimmick twice, but then he always encouraged the cult that grew around him. Sonia Gandhi too offered her resignation ironically, Pawar was the main reason for this. She stayed on— Pawar was expelled and founded the NCP.

It seems unlikely that the NCP will ever let Sharad Pawar go. Surely, the 83-year-old, known to be the shrewdest politician among the opposition, knows this. Did nephew Ajit Pawar drive him to the end of his tether?

Pawar is not known as Chanakya for nothing. One doesn’t know whether he has himself scripted the crises that have recently overwhelmed his party, first in 2019 when Ajit Pawar was sworn-in as deputy CM of Maharashtra with the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as CM. At the heart of both crises lies a lurking BJP. It failed in its long standing desire to break the senior-most strongman of Maharashtra during the 2019 Assembly election. Pawar simply twisted the BJP’s trusted weapon — an ED summons-in own favour. It was once again outwitted after the polls, when it was all set to cut its oldest ally to size.

Far from succeeding in downsizing Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, the BJP found itself out of power despite having won the most seats. Its success in wooing Ajit Pawar could last just four days; but those were enough for the latter to get the “BJP white wash” that all scam–accused defectors get. On the fifth day, the truant leader, now cleared by the Anti-Corruption Bureau, was welcome back into the NCP fold, and a month later, rewarded with the Deputy CM’s post.

Pawar’s masterstroke of bringing to fruition the MVA alliance is yet to be avenged by the BJP. The split engineered in the Shiv Sena last year did bring down the MVA coalition government, but it left Thackeray bleeding, not Pawar. Had the BJP’s recent overtures to the more—than—winning Ajit succeeded, that would have delivered a grievous wound to Sharad Pawar. But party chief had already started dealing with the possibility in his own style. When rumour were rife about a number of NCP MLAs going over to the BJP’s side under Ajit Pawar’s leadership, Pawar made a seemingly nonchalant remark that those who didn’t have the stomach to face an ED/CBI summons, were free to leave. One would have had to be an extraordinary thick-skinned politician to leave after this comment.

But even these preliminary moves between the BJP and Ajit Pawar served a purpose—they shook the already unequal Eknath—Shinde—Devendra Fadnavis relationship on which the state government depends, and also deepened Fadnavis’ unhappiness to having been deprived of the CM’s post in a government he helped form. For, Ajit Pawar, after having been deputy CM four times already, wouldn’t have settled for any post other than that of CM, as he himself made clear.

All this worked in favour of not just Sharad Pawar, but also the MVA, and Uddhav Thackeray in particular, who after finally bestirring himself to leave his home and tour the state, finds the effort to have been worth it. Response to his rallies signal a promising out come for next year’s poll for the MVA.

With the right messages having been sent all round, including the restive NCP MLAs, it was time to put the nephew in his place. Ajit Pawar accepted the NCP chief’s resignation without demur. How was he to know that he, who was dreaming of finally becoming CM or at least party President, would end up as just one of 15 committee members tasked with finding his uncle’s successor?

Chanakya triumphs once again.  (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

0n April 12, when Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walked into 10, Rajaji Marg, residence of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge in Delhi to discuss ways to bring opposition parties together, it marked the end of a long wait for the seasoned politician.

Nitish had been waiting for the Congress to respond to his proposal that he could help bring opposition parties together to form an alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Ever since he had severed ties with NDA on August 9, 2022 and formed Mahagathbandhan government with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, the veteran had been expecting a call from the Congress.

Since 2015, when the Mahagathbandhan has registered a stunning victory over the BJP in Bihar despite the saffron party riding high on the triumph of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish has been keen on a similar alliance at the national level. He had suggested that he could help in reaching out to regional leaders, but the congress was unwilling to cede space to regional forces. Similarly, most regional parties were not comfortable doing business with the principle opposition party. Nitish had subsequently returned to the NDA fold.

More recently, after the formation of the mahagathbandhan government in Bihar last year, Nitish met then Congress president Sonia Gandhi along with RJD’s founding leader Lalu Prasad. He had in that meeting taken up the Bharat Jodo yatra and preparations for the Congress plenary session.

At the national convention of the CPI (ML) Liberation held earlier this year in Patna, Nitish said he was waiting for the Congress to respond. The Bihar Chief minister was a first few opposition leaders, Kharge reached out to in early April. A three-day visit to Delhi was planned soon after phone call, with Nitish displaying a great sense of urgency to begin his outreach efforts. The meeting is being seen as the first major move towards opposition unity. NCP President Sharad Pawar, prominent figure in the anti-BJP bloc, was originally scheduled to join the meeting, but he met the Congress leadership a day later. Like Nitish Kumar, Pawar, too, underlined the need to reach out to parties like Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party.

It is learnt that Nitish offered to bring on board parties that are not comfortable being in the same frame as the Congress, such as Trinamool Congress, the AAP, the Bharat Rashtra Samiti and the Samajwadi party. Nitish’s deputy in the Bihar cabinet, Tejashwi Yadav, who has a family relationship with Samajwadi leadership, would try to bring Akhilesh Yadav on board. The Bihar leader’s plan of action also includes reaching out to fence sitters like the Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress. On the other hand, the Congress is expected to reaffirm its ties with existing allies in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand.

The opposition has missed the presence of a leader like the late CPI-M stalwart Harkishen Singh Surjit, who succeeded in bringing together unlikely allies, be it in the formation of the United Front governments after the Lok Sabha elections in 1996 or bringing the Left and the Congress closer after the 2004 general elections. Nitish’s supporters feel that he could perform a similar role in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.

The Congress has described Nitish’s meeting with Kharge and Rahul as a “historic step”. Nitish’s supporters say he is best suited to play the role of an anchor of the opposition grouping, given his seniority and vast political experience. And, he enjoys good rapport with leaders across parties.

As per the proposal Nitish has made to the Congress, he would make an effort to bring as many political parties as possible on a common platform. During his three-day visit to Delhi, he met Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, CPI-M general secretary Sitaram Yechury and CPI general secretary D. Raja.

Nitish has made it clear that any viable opposition grouping would require the Congress as its fulcrum. Hence if his outreach efforts find takers among the parties that have kept their distance from the Congress, it also amounts to these parties accepting the congress’s centrality in any opposition alliance. Nitish believes that congress cannot   be kept out since the party and its allies take on the BJP in around 250 seats.

After meeting Nitish, Kejriwal said the entire opposition should come together and change the government at the centre. This marks a huge departure from the AAP’s stated position as the party keen to maintain its identity as an entity that is different from other parties.

“We have all condemned the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi and we were together in petitioning the Supreme Court over the misuse of investing agencies. These are still early days and what form of this understanding among opposition parties takes will depend on a number of factors “, said Sanjay Singh, AAP Rajya Sabha member. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

With day-long protests by Congress across the country recently, the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi from Parliament has given shape to political chessboard, setting up  the opening pieces for the 2024 election battle. How events pan out depends on subsequent moves of various protagonists. We can, however, make preliminary observations.

One, the next national election may not depart substantially from the previous two in their broad framing as “Modi vs Congress” and “Modi vs Gandhi” elections. After Bharat Jodo Yatra campaign, Congress has occupied increasing opposition space. Meanwhile, the brief spurt of regional parties such as TMC and AAP on the national stage last year got cut off through election reverses and corruption investigations. Political headlines, well after Bharat Jodo Yatra, all belong to Rahul Gandhi.

Disqualification of Gandhi scion which prompted cross party walkouts in state assemblies of Maharashtra and Bihar, has only appeared to boost his political status within the opposition space. Even traditional Congress baiters such as BRS,TMC and AAP came out strongly in condemnation — Arvind Kejriwal termed BJP government as a more “oppressive” than British rule — all repeating the narrative of “corrosion” of democratic institutions, which was the centrepiece of Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY). Congress, of course, pressed its charge that the “dictatorial” move validated Gandhi’s attack and showed the government was increasingly “afraid” of Rahul.

BJP perhaps does not mind fuelling a “Modi vs Gandhi” narrative ahead of state contests such as Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, where it faces considerable anti-incumbency. It does have some electoral logic as  Narendra  Modi is still much more  popular than Gandhi— in recent India Today Mood of the national survey, 53% preferred Modi for PM as the opposed to 43% respondents for Gandhi.

Two, the neta narratives for next year’s election is increasingly coalescing around a contest between what the governing party pitches as a “nationalist” vision and opposition parties pitch as a “democratic” vision.

The PM is leading BJP’s political campaign on the plank of national pride, show casing the G20 summit as the crowning jewel of India’s “dazzling” rise to “great power” status. With post—pandemic economic recovery encountering heavy headwinds, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is keeping a low profile while foreign minister Jaishankar leads the government’s charge. Meanwhile, the opposition is portrayed not just as “corrupt” but often accused of colluding with “anti national” forces opposed to this national progress. The political storm over Gandhi’s comments in the UK was one instance of this emerging narrative.

The problem the opposition faces is that unlike BJP’s clear articulation of a singular vision, the opposition’s vision is an ambiguous, disjointed formulation. This is not necessarily its fault— democracy is inherently a multi-valued concept that lends itself multiple meanings, articulations. For example, BJP presents its own democratic vision as one of empowerment say the celebration of a tribal President, and national pride India as “the mother democracy”.

That is not to say a democratic narrative is politically fruitless, particularly in front of the governing party trumpeting hard nationalism. Electoral decimating of the Congress in 1977 and 1989 prove it. In 1977, Congress defended Emergency claiming anarchist in opposition ranks threatened in the national security.   Before 1989 elections, Congress celebrated the emergence of a modern India with an aggressive foreign policy under Rajiv Gandhi, while squabbling opportunists unfit to deal with the “serious challenges” to national integrity in Kashmir and Punjab. In a characteristic campaign attack, a full page Congress advertisement showed a broken doll with the caption:  “My heart beats for India! And I won’t let anyone break it to pieces.” (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

In May 2005, a Griha Puja — a family only affair — was organized at 12, Tughlak Lane. Soon after Rahul Gandhi moved into the house in Lutyens Delhi allotted to him months earlier as a newly member of the Lok Sabha. It was a time when Rahul, winning from the family stronghold of Amethi, was setting foot in the complicated world of politics. The very act of moving out of 10, Janpath—Sonia Gandhi’s official residence—was symbolic of the big shift in his life.

Since then, it has been a roller coaster ride for the former Congress president. Rahul will soon have to vacate 12 Tughlak Lane following his conviction in a criminal defamation case by a court in Surat and subsequently disqualification as a Lok Sabha member. In the beginning he was seen as diffident and misfit in politics, even as his party was, in phases, bringing him on the centre stage and his political rivals were sizing him up. Almost two decades later, he is at the centre of a political storm, his opponents at their shrillest in denouncing him as failed politician while his party is hoping the spotlight on him will end up benefitting him.

Rahul has perhaps never been at the centre of news and discussions the way he is at present. Over the last few months, the developments related to him have taken place at a faster pace.. When he walked into parliament at the beginning of the budget session in early February, he still sported his overgrown beard from Bharat Jodo Yatra, his swagger, reflecting the confidence of a mission well accomplished. The yatra was seen as having helped in great measure to repair his image.

Then came his speech in the Lok Sabha on Adani issue in the back drop of the Hindenburg Research report. Rahul’s controlled aggression as he asked uneasy questions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alleged proximity to businessman Gautam Adani had the treasury benches up in arms. A line-up of Union ministers countered him in Parliament and outside. There was a qualitative change in BJP’s attacks on him this time, with the ‘Papu’ jibes a thing of the past. Rahul’s ‘democracy in peril’ comment made in the UK resulted in the second half of the budget session getting washed out, owing to unprecedented scenes of treasury benches disrupting the proceeding. The ruling side stuck to its demand of an apology from Rahul to Parliament. He was called a traitor and even dubbed a modern-day Mir jafar. Shortly afterwards, the Delhi police visited Rahul Gandhi’s residence, seeking details about a speech he made during the Yatra in which he had spoken about women confiding him about crimes perpetrated on him.

The furore over Rahul has reached its crescendo with his conviction and disqualification as an MP. It has set off a bitter confrontation between government and opposition, and could set the tone for the coming round of Assembly elections and the Lok Sabha polls. It is another matter that had the ordinance on disqualification of MPs that he strongly opposed in 2013 become law, his disqualification would not have been immediate (the Manmohan Singh government had wanted to bring another ordinance that would have allowed convicted MPs and MLAs to retain their seats for three months).

Rahul, who in his twitter bio now refers to himself as a Dis‘Qualified MP, has described the recent events as the “best gift” the BJP could have given him. Implied in the statement is the optimism that the developments will provide his party an opportunity to take on Modi government with vigour.

“The more they attack Rahul Gandhi, the stronger he will get”, said Congress’s chief whip in Lok Sabha Manicam Tagore. “They have unleashed all their power to try and silence him, and he has frustrated their efforts. The entire party will rally around our leader. You cannot stop us from going to the people”. If his conviction is not stayed by a higher court or his conviction not reduced to less than two years, Rahul faces the scenario of not being able to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As of now, he will be barred from contesting election for eight years including two years of sentence if his appeal for the staying of the conviction is not granted. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

As we head into another massive electoral season, starting with Karnataka assembly polls on May 10 and ending with the Lok Sabha 12 months later; two parallel political processes are at work.

These processes will play out in the coming months as the main actors figure out which way the voters can be swayed in their favour; What we can deduce now from their utterances is what their political calculations may be.

The first process is the attempt to create an overarching opposition alliance to take on the “world’s largest party” (BJP) in 2024. Logically, for a party which won a majority on the basis of its own vote of 37%, it should make the sense to feed the sense of disunity among its political opponents. But by showing great eagerness to get Rahul Gandhi out of the Lok Sabha after defamation verdict went against him, and by allegedly using the investigating agencies to target mostly opposition leaders, the party seems to be doing the exact opposite.

At Sunday’s meeting organized by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, as many as 15 opposition parties — including those who see Congress as the main enemy in their states— attended. Unless BJP thinks it needs no allies before 2024, its attitude is actually forcing the opposition to work together for its downfall.

On the other side of the equation, it should make equal sense for the opposition to bury contentious issues that emphasize their own conflicts of election. But this is what Rahul Gandhi did when he brought in a negative reference to Veer Savarkar riling his majority ally in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena. He opened up fissures in a state that sends the second largest number of MPs to Parliament after Uttar Pradesh.

The road to recovery, both for BJP and opposition, depends on how this first process plays out between now  and May 2024. Since both sides seem tripping on this trust, we have to ask whether ego clashes are playing any role here.

This brings us to the second process at work, especially the dynamics between Congress and BJP. It is difficult to believe that some form of personal antagonism is not at work between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, as has been evident for more than eight years now.

The decisive moment in Modi—Rahul ego clashes began in early 2015, when the Gandhi scion called the Modi government a “suit—boot ki sarkar”. For most of his first term, Modi aggressively focused on rooting out black money, including the use of blunt instrument like demonetization. Did Gandhi’s diatribe rankle the PMs so much as to drive him to spend a lot of his energies trying to shake off the “suit boot” label? We can’t know the answer, but the question still needs asking.

After that we got the Raffle issue, the “Chowkidar chor hai” slogan and frequent references to India’s loss of territory before 2020 conflict in eastern Ladakh. These jabs cannot but hurt a politician who takes pride in his “strongman” image. Add the attempt to target Gautam Adani as a way of indirectly denting PM’s “clean” image, and we have one more data point and possibility of a personality clash here.

On the other hand, the Gandhi clan has been at the receiving end of BJP’s criticism about Nehru and his alleged role in weakening India economically and geo-politically. Given this backdrop, it is possible to suspect that the political moves of both BJP and Congress may, at least partially, be clouded by this clash of personal and political egos.

Can ego clashes derail broader requirements for unity even at regional level? It is likely that issues similar to one between Congress and BJP won’t dog the alliance process in states?

This problem exists in many states, except possibly Tamil Nadu, where DMK has managed to include Congress and Left in its alliance. In Kerala, Congress and Left need not combine because BJP is not a contender for power yet. But Telangana and Andhra Pradesh governing parties see Congress (apart from BJP) as rivals not worth aligning with.

In many states, the dominant party, whether regional or Congress, cannot easily accommodate its future ally at Centre. This is the case with Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, or Congress in Himachal Pradesh, MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Delhi. States like Punjab and Karnataka will also see three or even four—horse races. Not exactly what the opposition may want but can take place. What is needed is to ensure that the non-BJP parties, even fighting among themselves in some states before Lok Sabha polls, unite in the post poll scenario. (IPA Service)

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By Harihar Swarup

If not people, BJP will make Rahul Gandhi a leader by persecuting him. History has shown whenever a leader is persecuted as Rahul Gandhi is being done, he gets people’s sympathy. Wayanad MP Rahul has lost his Lok Sabha seat after being convicted of a criminal defamation by a Surat court. What happens now— the best—and worst-scenarios for him   will be of interest

Rahul Gandhi’s membership of Parliament has been cancelled following his conviction and sentencing by a local case in Surat on Thursday. A notification issued by the Lok Sabha secretariat on Friday said Rahul “stands disqualified from the membership of Lok Sabha from the date of his conviction.

The Lok Sabha notification on disqualification is part of the procedure. In a note on October 13 2015, the Election Commission had asked chief secretaries to issue appropriate instructions to the department dealing with prosecutions  to ensure of that cases of conviction of sitting MPs 0r MLAs were brought to the notice the Speaker or Chairman of the house, and to the Chief Elector Officer of the state along the order of convection within seven days of the order.

Is the authority   of   the   Speaker final in   this regard? The Supreme Court in its ruling in Lok Prahari vs Union of India (2018) clarified that a disqualification triggered by conviction will be reversed if the conviction is stayed by a court. “Once conviction has been stayed during the pendency of an appeal, the disqualification which operates as a consequence of the conviction can not take or remain in effect,” the ruling said.

The notification by the House Secretariat regarding will cease to be in effect if and when his

Development before Rahul Gandhi’s conviction is worth noting. The ongoing Parliament session is rife with political animosity, with the exception of a few pleasant moments. That is why, after the Indian short documentary The Elephant Whispers won an Oscar earlier this month, a brief discussion in the Rajya Sabha was   cordial as all the members shared their pleasure at the Oscar award  to the documentary.. Why can’t this be the case throughout the session? Can’t our lawmakers swear to discuss every issue openly? It goes without  saying that every minute Rs 2.5 lakh is spent on Parliamentary  proceedings, though the average daily spending of about 25% of nation’s population is less than Rs32. Essentially, our legislators are turning into Panchayats of the rich. Can’t our legislators show any respect for their largely poor constituents?

This question is more pertinent now that the current session is experiencing unprecedented uproar. Many opposition parties are working together to corner the government over the Adani Group issue. In Parliament, placard calling for a joint Parliament Committee (JPC) are being waved. State Legislatures, such as, the one in Bihar, are also affected by this trend. For five years, the Parliamentary procedure has been seriously    eroded..

Those demanding a JPC want to keep Adani issue hot until the election. What will the benefits be, if any? Chowkidar chor hai was Rahul Gandhi’s campaign slogan in the last election. He continued to bring up the Rafale controversy at election rallies even after the Supreme Court rejected those charges. What came out of it? It is also important to note that the Securities and Exchange Board of India has started working on probe that the apex court directed it to conduct on Adani issue.

It has to be noted that while the opposition is launching  a campaign against the Adani group and the investigative agencies, the ruling party is asking Rahul Gandhi to apologize for what he said in London. The ruling coalition’s members are resolute about not allowing the House to function until he apologise. Meanwhile, the Congress general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal moved a notice of breach of privilege against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Rajya Sabha, demonstrating that the Congress will continue its offensive.

Whatever Rahul Gandhi said in London may not have been “treason”, but it would have been better if he had been more careful with his words. He has set a record by walking 4,800-plus kilometres in 136 days non-stop. No politician has ever come to the streets with the determination of such a long march. This had a significant impact on his image. After that, people began to take him seriously. But his comments in London have dented his hard-won reputation.

Two of his statements raise eyebrows even during the recent padyatra. In the first instance , while in Maharashtra, he mentioned Veer Savarkar and remarked, “Savarkar-ji wrote a letter to the British and said “Sir, I want to be your  servant”. The Congress’ coalition partner in the state, Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, was taken aback. “Such utterances can cause a rift in Maha Vikas Aghadi, thus Rahul Gandhi should avoid such issues. We disagree with what he said about Savarkar,” Senior Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Rout said while outlining his party’s stand.

A few days later, Rahul Gandhi again made headlines by saying “Our forces are being beaten by the Chinese army on LAC (Line of     Actual Control), and Beijing is preparing for war”.

Not only his opponents but also allies    are   not   always   happy    at his comments. No surprise Lalu Yadav’s son Tejashwi and Nitish Kumar, a key ally of the United Progressive Alliance in Bihar, have placed the onus on him to forge opposition unity and beat the BJP in the upcoming elections. These astute allies insist that the Congress should concentrate on the 262 seats in which it finished first or second in the last general election.

Allies should be given responsibility for the remaining seats. Regional parties strive to strength their positions in this political game of chess. Members of Trinamool Congress and the NCP were absent from the march, organized under the leadership of the Congress, from Parliament to Enforcement Directorate office. In such a case, the Congress must be more vigilant and 3

When dealing with the BJP, the Congress must remain cool, restrained  and  determined.. Rahul Gandhi would have to save himself from any unnecessary row. His followers have much higher expectations of him. (IPA Service)

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