Tamil Nadu Politics Enters New Phase After Court Verdict Favouring EPS Leadership Of AIADMK

After M G Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa, AIADMK, which was formed by MGR breaking away from DMK over issue of corruption during the leadership of M K Karunanidhi in 1970s, now has an undisputed leader in former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Edappadi Palaniswami, who became the unanimous party general secretary following the Madras High Court rejecting interim application filed by expelled leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) and his associates. Former Deputy Chief Minister, OPS had sought restraining AIADMK from implementing the party’s general council resolutions and the consequent notification issued on March 17 for general secretary election. The election was held but the result was withheld pending the court order. With the court verdict, the unanimous election of Palaniswami as general secretary was announced. But Panneerselvam faction has gone on appeal to division bench of the High Court.

But the court verdict is seen as a major victory for Palaniswami ending months-long feud between the two warring top leaders of the AIADMK. The Supreme Court had last month green flagged EPS’ continuance as the interim chief, but left it to the Madras High Court to decide on the legality of the resolutions passed, and changes to the party by-laws, during the general council. The organisational polls have to be held once in five years and the highest office is elected by primary members.

This verdict has amply made it clear that it is EPS, who is going to lead AIADMK in the next Lok Sabha elections in 2024 and assembly elections in 2026. There are talks of BJP emerging has a strong third force in Tamil Nadu under the leadership of Annamalai to take on the two powerful Dravidian parties, which have ruled the state ever since Congress was unseated in 1967. There are also talks of BJP parting ways with AIADMK to go it alone. But it is now increasingly becoming clear that it is only under EPS, AIADMK led NDA can take on powerful DMK under M K Stalin in the state electoral politics. BJP has to be junior partner to AIADMK and not the other way round. OPS, Sasikala and TTV Dinakaran can at best merge with BJP to widen the acceptance of the national party. On their own, they would get increasingly marginalised in the state politics.

Both DMK and AIADMK are rooted in Dravidian politics, AIADMK is more nationalistic in approach and does not believe in atheist approach to politics and appeasement of minorities like DMK even though it has a sizeable minority following apart from majority Hindus. When MGR formed AIADMK, majority of congress cadre joined over a period of time and hard core DMK cadre remained with DMK as only liberal cadre shifted to this splinter party of MGR. As former minister Arun Shourie described BJP as Congress plus cow, AIADMK is DMK plus nationalism. It is also not averse to upper caste Brahmins unlike DMK, which has pathological hatred towards Brahmins under the garb social justice movement. In fact, AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa was a Brahmin.

DMK’s hatred is so pronounced that there is no university in Tamil Nadu named after great scientists and Nobel laureates from the state C V Raman, S Chandrasekhar and Venki Ramakrishnan. It is because all the three belonged to Brahmin community. This is the only other state in India to have 3 Nobel laureates apart from West Bengal.

BJP does want to get into state politics in a big way but so far it has been able to do so only in Karnataka among the southern states. In Kerala, though RSS is more active than other southern states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the entire political and administrative system is left-oriented. Even the mind-set of RSS in Kerala is left-oriented, so much so the politics is violent just as West Bengal and every issue is looked from the prism of communism irrespective of party affiliation.

Likewise in Tamil Nadu every issue is seen from Dravidian viewpoint, which means anti-Hindi and anti North Indian, even though, unlike in the past, there is a sizeable migrant labour in all the southern states as most of the local and skilled labour are working abroad in Middle East, Far East, Africa and even in Europe and North America. Every southern state now has around one crore each Hindi speaking migrant labour, mostly from Odisha, Bengal, Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Some of them do have voting rights and in Tamil Nadu, they prefer AIADMK to DMK as the party being more tolerant than DMK.

Though BJP wants to capture power in Tamil Nadu, Annamalai of BJP, though belong to same gounder caste as EPS, is no match to Palaniswami yet to take on DMK and Stalin. It would be in BJP’s interest to go with AIADMK as a junior partner. If it all it wants to go it alone, it can’t be before 2031 elections as the party has now got only toe-hold and not even foot-hold in the state electoral politics. This is despite the fact Prime Minister Narendra Modi has huge following in the state. Both DMK and AIADMK have committed cadre even at the booth level and most of them are well entrenched as they have been working for the respective parties for at least a decade or two, so much so they have individual connect with the local people. It will take at least a decade for BJP to become that influential at the booth level though in a few districts like Kanyakumari and Coimbatore, RSS penetration is visible and substantial.

OPS, belonging to Thevar community just as V K Sasikala and his nephew TTV Dinakaran used to be seen as the political heir of late party chief J Jayalalithaa, while EPS enjoyed overwhelming support from party workers. The AIADMK suffered four consecutive losses under the dual leadership model of EPS-OPS since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, including the recent Erode (East) by-election where the DMK-led ruling coalition candidate, EVKS Elangovan of the Congress trumped Mr Palaniswami’s pick KS Thennarasu by more than 66,000 votes. After a series of electoral losses, EPS has said the model is not working while OPS desperately approached courts to retain power over the party.

The court verdict has only strengthened the hands of EPS and rightly so as he is the only one at the present juncture capable of taking on DMK in the state. As Lok Sabha elections draws near there is some talk among a section of the Congress leaders for talking to EPS led AIADK for more seats if DMK refuses to reduce the number of seats to the Congress. Some DMK leaders are in favour of lower allocation of seats to the Congress in view of its depleted strength.

But the latest political developments have ruled out this possibility. M K Stalin is firmly with Rahul Gandhi and he will ensure that the front of DMK with the Congress, Left and others remain strong for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. There is every possibility of a three way fight in Tamil Nadu in Lok Sabha polls between DMK led front, EPS led AIADMK and the third front led by BJP along with others, even including OPS faction of AIADMK which has become depleted in the recent months. (IPA Service)