The bullish case for the Ferrari ADR in New York!

I dedicate this post to my dear friend Abdulla Saeed Al Naboodah who has Ferrari in his spirit, bloodstream as well as in his garages. I went gaga on the Ferrari IPO in 2015 as I viewed the world’s preeminent luxury car maker as unique since it restricted supply to an elite global community rather than peddled product to any joe who could afford a Beamer and Benzi. The rich of Nairobi are even known as Wa-Benzi LOL!

Ferrari (RACE) is up 7X since its IPO a decade ago but has fallen 27% since its 519 high in July 2025. Now Q4 earnings, the 2026 output target, EBITDA guidance and the launch of the Jony Ive’s designed EV Luce have lifted RACE from 328 to 380.

AI will never disrupt the legacy of Dottore Enzo Ferrari and Maranello while Trump tariff risk will be gladly paid by the buyer just as long as he can get hold of the supercar of his choice. While the algorithmic cowboys of Wall Street crowbar the MAG-7, Ferrari remains my Magnifico numero uno, both in its share price and the next time the flying horse team races down the F1 circuits from Monte Carlo to Silverstone to Yas Marina in Abu Dhabi. True beauty is timeless and the history of La Bella Italia is also history of beauty. Ferrari shares in Milan and New York are now in my risk/reward calculus radar screen via the Chicago options exchange, as usual once gamma risk settles down.

A cheaper way to accumulate a stake in Ferrari is to buy the shares of the Agnelli family’s holding company, which is listed in Amsterdam, Frankfurt and pink sheet in the US. Exor was the brainchild of the legendary Turin industrialist Giovanni Agnelli, who was both the prince of post war Dolce Vita and the ultimate Renaissance man, financier, geopolitical powerbroker, art lover, skier, racing fanatic and playboy extraordinaire and the genius industrialist who rebuilt the FIAT empire after the disaster of the Mussolini regime and the Nazi occupation of the Italian peninsula.

L’avvocato’s grandson John Elkann is now chairman of Exor, which owns a 20% stake in Ferrari. Elkann also chairs the sad incarnation du jour of FIAT known as Stellantis. Exor now trades at a 52% family controlled discount, which would have been justified had John just been yet another 3rd generation family princeling catapulted to the boardroom because Nonno happened to be Giovanni Agnelli. Elkann has generated 18% annual return in the Exor NAV against MSCI World Index benchmark’s 11% since 2009 when he became capu di tutti capi/CEO at Exor. So the optimal backdoor into Ferrari is via Exor as the value of the stake rises and the NAV discount goes from Godawful to just plain awful, my ideal profit delta sweet spot.

Ferrari stock is the crown jewel of Exor and 80% of its $18 billion market value even though its assets are $40 billion. So as Ferrari revs up, I expect the Exor NAV discount will narrow to its 28% average since the GFC. Stellantis is a drag but it now trades at a rock bottom val to even its big auto peers in Europe, Japan and Detroit.

The best fund manager in the world for Ferrari is Exor since Elkann is also its chairman. He sold $3 billion of Ferrari shares near its all-time high in early 2025. So I just mimicked the trade and had my own little dolce vita in the prop book. His $9 billion PartnerRe reinsurance deal was brilliant too. I have no doubt that Exor will make Ferrari great again