The Battle For The Ballot Cannot Hide Bihar’s Bitter Economic Truth

As Bihar heads to the polls on November 6 and 11, the contest is being pitched as a battle for identity, justice, and governance. But no matter which side wins—the NDA led by the BJP–JD(U) combine, the opposition Mahagathbandhan under the RJD-Congress, or the insurgent Jan Suraaj of Prashant Kishor—the victor will confront the same cruel truth: Bihar’s growth story is a political illusion that hides deep economic despair.

The state’s highways gleam, its GDP gallops, and its leaders boast of double-digit growth. Yet beneath the concrete and statistics lies a starker Bihar—one that exports its youth, imports its subsidies, and still ranks near the bottom in human development.

The campaign is loud, but the silence on Bihar’s structural crisis is deafening.

The Election Arithmetic: Jobs, Caste, and a Crisis of Credibility

The 2025 Assembly polls are shaping up as a referendum on two decades of Nitish Kumar’s rule, with his credibility as “Sushasan Babu” now fraying. Anti-incumbency, fatigue, and frustration with joblessness are giving the opposition oxygen it hasn’t had in years.

At the heart of this election lies one overwhelming issue: unemployment. Bihar’s youth joblessness rate hovers around 13–15%, one of the highest in India. Each year, more than two million Biharis migrate out of the state for work — to Delhi’s construction sites, Punjab’s farms, or the Gulf’s labour markets.

Tejashwi Yadav has turned this into a rallying cry, promising 10 lakh government jobs, while the NDA counters with promises of industrial incentives and five lakh private-sector jobs under Nitish’s “Sushasan” model. The conversation has shifted from caste to careers — what social media now calls a “youth revolt.”

Still, neither side has explained how those jobs will be created in a state where industry contributes barely 21.5% of GSDP, manufacturing is stagnant, and agricultural employment remains disguised under subsistence.

Bihar’s economy, expected to reach ₹10.97 lakh crore (US$130 billion) by 2025–26, has indeed grown rapidly — a compound annual rate of 11.4% over the past decade. Yet its per capita income of ₹59,637 remains one-third of India’s average, a gap that mocks the “double-engine” slogan of the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

Caste: The Old Code in a New Contest

Caste arithmetic still frames the contest, but this time, it’s layered with class anxieties. The RJD’s Yadav-Muslim base faces off against JD(U)’s EBC-OBC coalition and the BJP’s upper-caste bastions, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj seeks to lure disillusioned youth with a “caste-neutral” plank.

The Congress has revived its demand for a caste census and Pasmanda (backward Muslim) inclusion, sharpening identity politics under the guise of equity. The NDA counters with its stability narrative, portraying itself as the only guarantor of “development without division.”

But beneath these alignments lies a hard reality: caste still decides who gets to govern, not how Bihar is governed. The EBC and OBC blocs, long courted as swing voters, remain economically stagnant — and deeply cynical about elite politics on both sides.

Infrastructure and the Illusion of Progress

The NDA’s campaign has revolved around infrastructure — new highways, power capacity, and bridges as proof of progress. The government boasts of 1.17 lakh km of rural roads, 57 railway projects worth ₹15,987 crore, a ₹3,402 crore metro in Patna, and 7,895 MW of installed electricity capacity.

But infrastructure does not automatically equal prosperity. Bihar’s Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a proxy for productive investment, remains at a meagre 4.7% of GSDP, among India’s lowest.

Factories haven’t followed the highways. The state still accounts for less than 1% of national manufacturing output. Rural Bihar, where 70% of the workforce depends on agriculture, faces recurring floods, rising input costs, and falling real incomes. The government’s talk of “development” rings hollow in East Champaran, Madhubani, or Sitamarhi, where irrigation remains erratic and flood management projects are perpetually “under implementation.”

For most voters, Bihar’s development has been something to look at, not to live in.

Corruption and the Battle for Moral High Ground

Corruption, once the NDA’s weapon against Lalu Prasad Yadav’s “Jungle Raj,” has come back to haunt it. Opposition parties cite land scams, unfulfilled job promises, and rising costs of living as proof that Nitish Kumar’s clean-governance halo has faded.

The JD(U) itself is fraying — 11 leaders were expelled this year for “anti-party activity,” exposing internal unrest. The BJP’s central leadership, meanwhile, has turned the Bihar polls into a prestige battle, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and Nadda leading aggressive campaigns.

But even as the rhetoric escalates, voters sense little difference between the corruption of yesterday and the complacency of today.

The Bihar Economic Survey 2024–25 bluntly notes: “Committed expenditures — salaries, pensions, and interest payments — severely constrain developmental spending.” In plain terms, Bihar spends more on paying its past than building its future.

Debt, Dependence, and Delhi’s Grip

Bihar’s fiscal spine is fragile. Nearly three-fourths of its revenue comes from Delhi — through Finance Commission transfers and grants. Its own tax revenue of ₹59,520 crore (FY25) cannot even cover administrative costs.

The state’s debt-to-GSDP ratio, at nearly 40%, is among India’s highest. Interest payments have skyrocketed from ₹3 crore in 1999 to ₹23,838 crore in 2021, crowding out welfare and education.

The NCAER’s 2025 report warns that Bihar’s debt “is sustainable only under optimistic growth and transfer assumptions.” That’s bureaucratic code for “one shock away from crisis.”

This dependency gives Delhi a veto over Patna’s priorities. The NDA’s campaign slogan of “double-engine growth” thus cuts both ways — a boast when convenient, a burden when not.

Voter Rolls, Women, and the Politics of Perception

The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls has ignited fresh controversy, with the RJD alleging that over 20 lakh names — largely minorities — were deleted. The NDA insists it was a cleanup.

Meanwhile, women voters, who make up 35% of Bihar’s electorate, have emerged as a decisive bloc. The NDA banks on schemes like Kanya Sumangala and free LPG, while the opposition pushes for enhanced reservations and cash support.

Yet, for most women, empowerment remains a slogan. Female labour participation is stuck at 22.4%, and women’s safety remains a rural-urban faultline. Inflation, corruption in the PDS system, and the erosion of local jobs are the real conversations in village courtyards — not the glossy promises in manifestos.

Floods, Inflation, and the Forgotten Bihar

Bihar’s geography continues to mock its governance. Floods from the Kosi and Bagmati swallow crops and homes every monsoon, displacing tens of thousands. Each time, relief funds are announced, inquiries ordered, and the cycle resumes.

The result: a state perpetually rebuilding, never progressing. Agriculture, contributing 20% of GSDP, remains a livelihood trap rather than a growth engine.

Add to that inflation — 5.5% CPI in 2023–24 — and a global slowdown, and Bihar’s recovery looks increasingly brittle.

The 2025 Verdict: More Than a Mandate

Polls predict a tight contest: NDA around 120 seats, Mahagathbandhan near 100, and Jan Suraaj between 20 and 30, enough to play spoiler in close races. But whatever the arithmetic, the aftermath will look the same — a government hemmed in by debt, social division, and fiscal limits.

This election may decide who governs Bihar, but not how it is governed. The real question isn’t who wins — it’s whether anyone can afford to lose the next decade to politics-as-usual.

The Reckoning Ahead

Bihar’s dream of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2047 is possible — but not with the current political playbook. Whoever takes charge must break three cycles at once:

The dependency cycle — Build revenue capacity and reduce overreliance on central funds.

The migration cycle — Create jobs that keep youth at home.

The populism cycle — Shift from electoral giveaways to structural investment in human capital.

Bihar’s 127 million citizens deserve more than campaign slogans. They deserve a state that matches their ambition. The next Chief Minister’s challenge is not winning power — it is wielding it responsibly.

Beyond the Ballot

This election is not a clash of ideologies — it is a collision with arithmetic. Bihar’s leaders may trade slogans of “sushasan” and “nyay,” but the numbers won’t budge unless someone governs differently.

Growth without inclusion has become Bihar’s political habit; populism, its governing philosophy. The state that once supplied India’s labour now exports its dreams.

On November 14, when the results arrive, one party will claim victory. But Bihar’s real battle — between aspiration and arithmetic — will only have begun. (IPA Service)