All Eyes On Dalit Voters In Uttar Pradesh In 2024 Lok Sabha Polls

Which way will the Dalits go in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh? Will they turn to BSP, or vote for either of the rival blocs, I.N.D.I.A., or NDA? Dalit votes also get bifurcated on the basis of sub-castes. For example, Jatav, Pasi, Valmiki communities vote differently. Although it is believed that more than 55 percent of the votes come from the Jatav community, which has always been with Mayawati-led BSP, this time the Dalits might be looking for a better alternative in the INDIA alliance. In the last assembly elections, Dalits had voted for the BJP. However, the BJP’s defeat by the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance in three of the Uttar Pradesh bypolls held since the February-March 2022 Assembly elections – involving the Ghosi and Khatauli Assembly seats and the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency – signals that the ruling party could not capitalise on the Mayawati-led BSP’s absence and woo Dalit voters in these by-elections. In the recent Ghosi bypoll, SP retained the seat and SP nominee Sudhakar Singh trounced BJP’s heavyweight OBC leader Dara Singh Chauhan by 42,759 votes. Singh polled 1,24,427 votes against the BJP nominee who polled 81,668 votes. The SP got the larger share of the BSP’s Dalit votes in the constituency. While Dalits have been complaining about the economic distress caused by high inflation, unemployment, reservation, and the plight of agricultural labourers and farmers, and they also have to face caste oppression, and above all the administration never supports them. The community accounts for 21 per cent of the voting population in UP and are going to have a big effect in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Political observers feel that Mayawati continues to rely heavily on the consolidation of Jatav sub-caste, which accounts for around 55% of the total Dalit population. Experts said that Dalits had earlier been supportive of Congress, until BSP emerged as a political force under the leadership of its founder Kanshi Ram in early 1990s. Meanwhile, Congress thinktank is formulating plans to field party stalwarts from the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to sources, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge might contest from Bijnor or Saharanpur to help it regain its hold on Dalit votes, and it will also help the INDIA alliance. There is a growing belief in the party that the BSP chief Mayawati’s charisma and hold over Dalits (primarily Jatavs) is gradually fading and waning. Kharge would contest both from his traditional seat in Karnataka and a seat in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will fight from Amethi and Priyanka Gandhi might be fielded from Raebareli or Varanasi. The political buzz is that due to the reservation and caste census issue, unemployment and price rise, the BJP’s ground seems to be slipping in western Uttar Pradesh and Dalit voters also are keen to join this campaign.

WILL NITISH KUMAR CONTEST LOK SABHA POLLS FROM A KURMI-MAJORITY SEAT?

INDIA alliance leaders share the view that Bihar CM Nitish Kumar should contest from the Kurmi-dominated seats of Phulpur or Mirzapur in the 2024 general elections. Nitish belongs to the Kurmi OBC community, and the INDIA bloc partners SP and Congress comprehensively hope to cash in on this to reach out to OBCs in Uttar Pradesh. Kurmis seem to have the potential to determine the electoral outcome in several seats in UP as they are the second most influential OBC segment in the state. Meanwhile, the Janata Dal (United) leaders from Bihar projected Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as the Prime Ministerial candidate for 2024. It was noticed during a meeting, which was convened by Nitish Kumar at his official residence where 534 block presidents of the party marked their attendance. Before the meeting, the block presidents raised the slogans of ‘Desh ka Pradhan mantri kaisa ho, Nitish Kumar jaisa ho’ (What sort of Prime Minister must the country see, of the sort that Nitish Kumar be) and chanted it several times. After the meeting, the block presidents said Nitish Kumar asked them to strengthen and empowered the party at the block level to win all 40 Lok Sabha seats, apart from spreading the word about the development work done by the government.

BOTH CONGRESS, BRS VIE FOR TELANGANA; PROMISE GOOD GOVERANCE

With both the Congress and the BRS vying for the Muslim votes outside Hyderabad, where AIMIM does not contest, BRS MLC K Kavitha tried to influence and woo the minority voters citing out the development work done by her party. Kavitha caution the minority electorate saying “Don’t be misled by their sweet words. This is because the Congress is a party of deceivers.” Kavitha has said Telangana is “number one” in all sectors as the state is under Chief Minister Chandrasekhar Rao’s governance. On the other hand, Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting will be conducted in Hyderabad on September 16-17, and it will not only set the agenda for national politics but also lay the road map for five election-bound states, including Telangana. Congress is expected to go ahead with announcement on the five poll guarantees in the lines of earlier Karnataka election. The party had reaped the benefits of promising certain schemes for women and the poor when it was voted to power in the neighbouring state. Hoping to create the same impact and to replicate the success, the Congress leadership is also expected to make announcements about subsidised LPG cylinders, loan waivers for farmers as well as free bus rides for women.

COULD MAMATA BE THE FACE OF I.N.D.I.A. PRIME MINISTERIAL LEADERSHIP?

Who will be I.N.D.I.A bloc’s prime ministerial candidate? The political buzz says that Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and former Congress president Rahul Gandhi are in the race to face off Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024. Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe has asked West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee if she was going to lead the Opposition alliance, INDIA. The Trinamool Congress chief was surprised and answered: “It depends on the people. If people support us, we can be in position (power) tomorrow.” Mamata Banerjee met Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe at Dubai airport and invited him to the state business summit in November. The West Bengal Chief Minister is on a 12-day trip to Dubai and Spain. “His Excellency, the President of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickremesinghe saw me at the Dubai International Airport Lounge and called me to join for some discussion. I have been humbled by his greetings and (have) invited him to the Bengal Global Business Summit 2023 in Kolkata,” Mamata Banerjee posted on X (formerly Twitter). However, the opposition INDIA bloc has exuded confidence that it would provide a formidable alternative to bring political change in the country and asserted that it has several prime ministerial faces against BJP’s only one.

I.N.D.I.A.’S BOYCOTT OF HATE-MONGERING ANCHORS LAUDED AMONG SECULARS

Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A. bloc has taken a bold decision not to participate in the prime time debates hosted by 14 television anchors, who are seen closer to the ruling BJP and who have a history of spreading fake news, indulging in communal hate as well as blindly parroting government talking points. “Pursuant to the decision taken by the INDIA Coordination Committee in its meeting on September 13, the INDIA parties will not send their representatives on the shows and events of following anchors,” said a printed card posted by chief of Congress’ media and publicity wing Pawan Khera on X (formerly Twitter). The names in alphabetical order are of: Aditi Tyagi (Bharat Express), Aman Chopra (News18 India), Amish Devgan (News18 India), Anand Narasimhan (News 18), Arnab Goswami (Republic), Chitra Tripathi (Aaj Tak), Gaurav Sawant (Aaj Tak), Navika Kumar (Times Now / Nav Bharat), Praci Parashar (India News), Rubika Liaquat (Bharat 24), Shiv Aroor (India Today), Sudhir Chudhary (Aaj Tak) and Sushant Sinha (Times Now / Nav Bharat). The decision has invited rapturous applause from many in the civil society as well as media fraternity, while also garnering brickbats from BJP ministers and some senior media personalities.

I.N.D.I.A. COMMITTEE MEETS AT PAWAR RESIDENCE, BACKS CASTE CENSUS

The first meeting of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc’s coordination committee was held in New Delhi on Wednesday, at NCP senior leader Sharad Pawar’s residence, and was attended by 12 member parties. It has then been decided that the first joint rally of the Opposition bloc would be held in Bhopal, in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh. In the first week of October, as part of its strategic plan to take on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the constituent parties begin seat-sharing talks. INDIA bloc has also agreed to take up the issue of caste census. TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee, who was called by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) for questioning, skipped the meeting on Wednesday. Others who were not present included Hemant Soren and Lalan Singh of JD(U). The meeting at Pawar’s residence was attended by K C Venugopal (Congress), T R Baalu (DMK), Sanjay Raut (Shiv Sena – UBT), Tejashwi Yadav (RJD), Raghav Chaddha (AAP), Javed Ali Khan (SP), Sanjay Jha (JD-U), D Raja (CPI), Omar Abdullah (NC ), and Mehbooba Mufti (PDP). (IPA Service)