Bangladesh’s Increasing Defence Relations With Pakistan Posing Threat To India

More than six weeks have passed since the visit of Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri to Dhaka on December 9 and his wide ranging talks with his Bangladeshi counterpart to improve the worsening bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries. Latest indications, however, suggest that the interim government headed by Dr. Mohammad Yunus is courting Pakistan in a big way through collaboration in the area of defence sector which poses a security threat to India.

The contacts between Bangladesh army and the Pakistan defence forces began soon after the fall of the Hasina government on August 5 last year, but it was limited to the visits of middle-level army officers. However, this week, Pakistan’s intelligence chief Lt. General Asim Malik reached Dhaka and held discussions with his Bangladeshi counterpart. Both countries officially did not speak about the nature of talks but it certainly focused on collaboration in intelligence sharing.

Earlier this month, Bangladeshi army delegation visited Islamabad and had talks with the Pakistan army chief General Syed A Munir and discussed strategic relationship in defence matters. Even though, no details were given officially, it is apparent that both sides had discussions about framing some common strategy towards India which has more than four thousand kilometres of border with Bangladesh. Earlier in November this year, Bangladesh imported 35,000 special type rifles from Pakistan. An agreement was reached then also training of a section of Bangladeshi troops by the Pakistan army. A Pakistani navy vessel arrived at Chittagong port for the first time late last year.

While at the defence level, Bangladesh is in talks with its earlier arch enemy Pakistan, China has launched a big move to enter into new areas of business and economic cooperation in Bangladesh. Beijing was not cordial with Sheikh Hasina, when she visited China as Prime Minister in July last year, but in the recent discussions, with Bangladesh officials, Beijing took a softer attitude and offered Dhaka many concessions which China earlier refused.

Beijing has agreed in principle to extend the repayment period for Chinese loans and assured Dhaka it will look into the request to lower the interest rate to ease Bangladesh’s foreign debt repayment pressure. The issue came up for discussion between the visiting foreign adviser of the Yunus government Touhid Hossain who was on a five day visit. Hossain had a meeting with the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. China is Bangladesh’s fourth largest lender after Japan, World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank with total loans disbursed since 1975 to a total of US$ 7.5 billion.

At the meeting, Hossain requested lowering the interest rate on Chinese loans from 2-3 percent to 1 percent, waiving the commitment and management fees and extending the loan repayment period from 20 years to 30 years for both the preferential buyer’s credit and government concessional loans.

Praising Bangladesh’s good track record in repayment, Wang agreed to extend the maturity period for loans provided to the country and also assured of looking into the request of lowering the interest rate on the loans, according to a statement from the Bangladesh foreign ministry.

Also Hossain held a meeting with Luo Zhaohui, the chairman of the China International Development Cooperation Agency, about Chinese loans. Hossain requested Luo to ramp up concessional loans and grants and the number of projects China funds in Bangladesh. Luo responded positively and sought a list of priority projects from Bangladesh. Luo said China may consider larger projects in Bangladesh, with some project funds extended as grants. As a result, the average interest rate of Chinese loans will go down, he said.

Both sides also discussed the financing of projects in metro rail and the Southern Infrastructure Development Initiative (SIDI) in Bangladesh. At Hossain’s bilateral meeting with the Chinese foreign minister, Beijing assured of continued duty-free and quota-free access to Bangladeshi products for three years after graduation from the least-developed country bracket in 2026.

Wang also conveyed China’s decision to designate three to four recognised hospitals in Kunming for treatment of Bangladeshi patients. He also welcomed Bangladesh’s proposal of setting up a specialised tertiary-level Chinese hospital in Dhaka as a gesture of goodwill on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Bangladesh-China diplomatic relations.

Both sides conveyed their readiness to organise a host of activities to mark the occasion. Wang requested Bangladesh to consider joining Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilisation Initiative.

Recognising Bangladesh’s strategic position, the two sides emphasised continued cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. China wants to see Bangladesh’s economic development in pace with their own development and assured China’s continued support for the projects conducive to the livelihood of the people of Bangladesh, Wang said.

The two sides expressed their willingness to work closely on proposed Chinese-funded projects: the Dasherkandi sewage treatment plant, the upgradation and modernisation of Mongla Port and the establishment of digital connectivity and 4G expansion. Bangladesh is yet not a member of China dominated regional body RCEP. The Bangladesh foreign ministry earlier cleared the proposal for Bangladesh membership but till now, Yunus government has not officially applied to the RCEP authorities.

Like China, Pakistan is also proactive in expanding its economic interests in Bangladesh. Already, in the last two months, Islamabad and Dhaka had talks about the trade possibilities but now, Islamabad wants a full-fledged meeting of the Pakistan Bangladesh Joint Economic Commission to start a new era in bilateral economic relations. Bangladesh is also making preparations and its ministries have been asked to earmark the areas where Pakistan can replace the supplies from Indian sources. Islamabad has mostly identified but Bangladesh is yet to make its list final as the administration is not sure to what extent, Dhaka can be benefitted by diverting to Pakistan supplies from India.

The holding of a JEC meeting in a big way is the brainwave of the Pakistan foreign ministry and the Islamabad strategy is to give some concessions to Bangladesh taking into the additional costs due to distance compared to India. Bangladesh has already requested granting duty free access to ten product categories covering 104 items.. Further Pakistan is assuring Bangladesh of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

As regards USA, There is little movement now as the new charge de affairs in Dhaka Tracey Ann Robertson in Dhaka joined only on January11 this year. The US embassy has got no fresh direction after Trump’s inauguration on January 20. South Asia is presently not the priority of the new President, but still the political circles in Dhaka are predicting exit of Dr. Yunus as interim head once Trump puts his attention on Bangladesh. Chief adviser Dr. Yunus is presently attending the five day World Economic Meet at Davos which ends on January 24. He has till now met large number of state heads and businessmen to explain the Bangladesh situation. He is also equally looking for some signal from Trump advisers

India’s options are limited for the time being. Bangladesh officials are not ready to carry any serious discussions till India takes some steps on their demand for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina to Dhaka which India has rejected. Much will depend how the political situation takes shape in Bangladesh. Till then, China and Pakistan will reap maximum benefits from the new regime while India watches. (IPA Service)