Why Lok Sabha Election For 20 Seats In Kerala Is Crucial For Future Of Left In Indian Politics?

The polling to the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in the second phase of elections on April 26 is of crucial significance to the two communist parties CPI(M) and the CPI for their future role in the turbulent post election days of the Indian polity. The fight between the two INDIA bloc partners in the course of the intensive campaign has been full of acrimony as both the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front and the Congress led United Democratic Front were fighting for establishing their political supremacy in the state, but finally, whoever wins will belong to the INDIA bloc. That is the most welcome factor in this state which boasts of a highly literate and politically agile electorate.

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress led UDF swept the polls by getting 19 seats leaving only one to the CPI(M) nominee. Out of the 19 seats, the Congress alone got 15. This 15 constituted the major chunk of its national tally of 52 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2024, the Congress is desperate to not only retain this 15 but also to increase its tally by one by annexing the remaining seat.

The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting from his present constituency Wayanad and the Congress is campaigning focusing that the state is going to have the next Prime Minister. For the Congress both at the state and the central level, it is a do or die scenario in Kerala. The high command has mobilised huge financial resources for this state at the cost of some other state parties which are starved of funds.

For the Left, especially the CPI(M), the task is no less challenging compared to the Congress, if not more. The CPI(M) contested 16 seats in 2019 elections but just got one with a low margin. The CPI fought in four constituencies and got none. This was the dismal result of the Left despite the LDF winning the 2016 state assembly elections and the Left getting some advantage of being the ruling party in 2019 polling time. In 2024, as the polling takes place on Friday, the CPI(M) Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is still ruling and he is the main face of the LDF taking on the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

The CPI(M) is contesting 15 seats this time and the CPI four as last time. The CPI(M) has given one seat to its new ally Kerala Congress (M) taking into account the need for more Christian votes. For the CPI(M), winning more seats from Kerala in 2024 is of paramount importance as the Party is not confident of getting sure seats from any other part of the country excepting Tamil Nadu where it can expect to retain the two seats.. The CPI(M) has three seats in the present Lok Sabha its lowest since its formation in 1964. Out of the three, two are from Tamil Nadu as a part of DMK led INDIA front. So, on the basis of its own strength, the CPI(M) can claim to have only one seat in the present Lok Sabha.

At the national level, the CPI(M) is contesting in West Bengal as a part of Left Front-Congress alliance in 23 out of the total of 42 seats in the state. The campaigning trend so far shows that it is very difficult for the CPI(M) to get even a single seat from Bengal this time as a result of the polarisation of voters between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the BJP. In 2019 elections also, the CPI(M) failed to get any seat to Lok Sabha. The ground situation has not changed much, in fact, the vote percentage of CPI(M) went down in the assembly and rural polls in 2021 and 2023 respectively.

As a part of INDIA bloc, the CPI(M) is contesting one seat in Rajasthan, one in Bihar and possibly one in Andhra Pradesh. In Rajasthan’s Sikar seat, the CPI(M) candidate is giving a good fight but it is not certain that he will get through finally. In Tripura, the CPI(M) is contesting in one of two Lok Sabha seats in alliance with the Congress. The BJP has an alliance with the tribals party Tipra Motha. There is little chance of the CPI(M) of getting this seat. That way, excepting two seats in Tamil Nadu, the CPI(M) has the potential of improving its seats from only Kerala. If that does not happen and the Congress sweeps, the CPI(M) will again be landing itself in 2019 position.

For the CPI, the nature of the challenge is the same. In 2019, the CPI got only two Lok Sabha seats, both from Tamil Nadu, courtesy DMK led front. There was no other seat from any state. For the CPI also, the 2019 figure in Lok Sabha was the lowest in CPI’s history. In Kerala, though the Party did not get any seat in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in 2024 the CPI has carried out intensive campaign in all four seats and in two seats, the party is within fighting distance of winning. If luck favours, the CPI can get one seat from Kerala. From Tamil Nadu like last time, the Party can get both the seats as a part of DMK led front.

Apart, the CPI is contesting in Begusarai in Bihar and in two seats from Andhra Pradesh as a part of the INDIA bloc. In Begusarai, the fight is tough but the party workers have campaigned fine. Union Minister Giriraj Singh is the BJP candidate. It is to be seen how finally the voters decide. In Andhra Pradesh, the CPI is fairly strong in one of the seats. If there is total mobilization of the Congress and Left voters, the CPI may get this seat. In Bengal, the CPI is contesting in two seats as a part of the Left Front. There is no question of winning. The Party has to work hard to save the security deposit of the candidates.

In totality, the Left hopes of increasing their representation in the 18thLokSabha depends mainly on Kerala’s 20 seats. Both the CPI(M) and the CPI as a part of LDF can raise the tally to two digits from the present one . At the same time, the Congress may sweep the polls by annexing even the lone seat of the CPI(M). Both possibilities are there. That is why, it is so vital for the Left to do everything to turn the April 26 polling in their favour. If they succeed, that will give a good boost to the CPI and the CPI(M) in post June 4 political situation. (IPA Service)