Beijing Scores Diplomatic Victory In Myanmar Via Regional Ceasefire

China has scored a major diplomatic victory in Myanmar by helping the conclusion of a truce between the ruling military junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the provinces bordering China. The MNDAA rebels took control of large areas around the border by driving out the junta troops last month. China was negotiating a deal as the mediator for the last two weeks and it was finally announced on Saturday.

The Myanmar war began from February 1, 2021 after the military took over power in the country overthrowing the elected government of Aung San SuuKyi. It is the second such pact in little over a year, a previous one in January 2024 not having been honoured by either side. The new ceasefire agreement brokered by China gives the Chinese government big advantage in reshaping the nature of the future government in this neighbouring country where China has big investments. Among the other big powers, US and the EU members have imposed sanctions against the Junta government for its undemocratic actions while India, while keeping relations, have not been too close to the regime. India also have very little contacts with the rebel groups.

China, on the other hand, has not taken any action against the military regime but at the same time called upon them to have negotiations with the rebels and the SuuKyi supporters of the Movement for Democracy. In the provinces bordering China, the rebels got assistance from the Beijing authorities also. In all, China is most advantageously placed in Myanmar now in respect of its relationship with all stakeholders.

China has a big stake in ensuring stability in Myanmar in view of protecting its large investments in infrastructure sector. Chinese spokesperson said on Saturday ‘We hope that all parties will maintain the momentum of ceasefire and peace talks, earnestly implement existing common understandings, take the initiative in de-escalating the situation on the ground and further negotiate and settle relevant issues through dialogue.”

Chinese officials said China stands ready to promote talks and provide support for the peace process in northern Myanmar. They did not give details and nor did Myanmar’s military government immediately comment on the ceasefire.

The Myanmar Civil War, also known as the Burmese Civil War, Burmese Spring Revolution or People’s Defensive War, is an ongoing civil war since 2021. It began following Myanmar’s long-running insurgencies, which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The exiled National Unity Government and major ethnic armed organisations repudiated the 2008 Constitution and called instead for a democratic federal state.

Besides engaging this alliance, the ruling government of the State Administration Council (SAC), also contends with other anti-SAC forces in areas under its control. Defence experts observed the insurgents are apportioned into hundreds of armed groups scattered across the country.

As of March 2023, the United Nations estimated that since the coup in February 2021, 17.6 million people in Myanmar required humanitarian assistance, while 1.6 million were internally displaced, and over 55,000 civilian buildings had been destroyed..United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) said that over 40,000 people had fled into neighbouring countries, such as Bangladesh, India and Thailand.

As of October 2023, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, controlled under 40% of the country, although they maintained that they controlled around two-thirds of the country’s 330 townships. In the second half of 2023, Chinland Defense Forces in Chin State had captured a majority of the state, with a few holdouts in urban areas and along the India–Myanmar border remaining. In October 2023, the Tatmadaw began facing manpower issues, with desertions and low morale being extremely common. This coincided with a major offensive by the People’s Defense Force and Three Brotherhood Alliance in the west of the country, which was successful in taking 80 bases, 220 SAC positions and several towns by 28 November 2023.

October and November 2023 saw a series of concurrent anti-SAC offensives, including Operation 1111 besieging the state capital of Loikaw and renewed conflict by anti-SAC forces in northern Rakhine and Chin states. In Operation 1027, anti-SAC forces seized Laukkai, the capital of Kokang Self-Administered Zone, in early January 2024. Northern Shan State fighting stopped with the Haigeng ceasefire after the fall of Laukkai. The Rakhine offensive, however, continued in northern Rakhine state with Mrauk U, among others, falling to the Arakan Army in February 2024.

As of February 2024, thousands of the SAC’s soldiers surrendered without a fight, including six generals of the Tatmadaw. The SAC used terror tactics against the population, including burnings, beheadings, mutilations, war rape, torching villages, and a massive aerial bombing campaign that has displaced nearly 3 million people. The Myanmar Air Force has dropped more bombs per capita than have been dropped in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In late March 2024 anti-SAC forces in southeastern Myanmar captured Demoso and Papun, bringing the number of district-level towns captured by anti-SAC forces up to eight. The ninth district-level town, Matupi, was captured by Chin resistance in mid June 2024. In late June 2024 the Three Brotherhood Alliance restarted Operation 1027 after claiming that Tatmadaw forces had broken the ceasefire, capturing the tenth district level town, Kyaukme, by the end of the month.

On 17 July, two more district level towns were captured by the Brotherhood Alliance, Thandwe and Mongmit, bringing the number up to twelve. On 3 August, the MNDAA as part of a wider effort from the Three Brotherhood Alliance and other resistance groups captured Lashio, the largest town in northern Shan State, as well as the headquarters of the SAC’s Northeastern Command. On 20 December 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) claimed to have captured a large tracts of areas near the Chinese border belonging to Rakhine province. China took maximum interest in this and organized mediation resulting in the latest truce.

India, despite its large investments in Myanmar had no active contacts with the rebels. Only late last year, a move was initiated to organize a meeting with the representatives of the rebels. The follow up meetings were not held. For India, China is a big power rival in Myanmar and its increasing presence and influence can hurt the interests of India as China has its own geopolitical goals.

The recent news of China deploying private security companies to protect its infrastructure and other projects in Myanmar is alarming for India. Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since the 2021 coup, creating a politically volatile environment. The entry of Chinese nationals as security guards represents a significant escalation. It suggests that traditional diplomatic channels have failed to provide adequate security assurances to Chinese investors and the government. This deployment of private security personnel introduces a new and complex dimension to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. The interesting feature is that Chinese move has the approval of the junta administration.

Political observers in Myanmar believe that such a move could further escalate tensions and potentially lead to unintended consequences. While many countries have invested in infrastructure and businesses in Myanmar, the 2021 coup has led to a significant withdrawal of foreign investment. Many companies have ceased operations and closed down their businesses due to the deteriorating political and security situation.

China, as a close neighbour with substantial investments in Myanmar, is particularly concerned about the impact of the conflict on its interests. The inability to conduct business and contain the damage to infrastructure projects have forced China to consider alternative solutions, including the deployment of private security forces. However, if other countries with significant investments in Myanmar, such as Japan, South Korea, Russia, or the United States, follow suit and deploy their own private security personnel, it could escalate tensions and create a more volatile environment, feel experts.

For instance, India has substantial investments in Myanmar, with several infrastructure projects underway that involve Myanmar, India, and Bangladesh. If India were to deploy its own troops or security personnel to protect its interests, it could further complicate the situation and potentially escalate tensions in the region.

China’s decision to deploy private security forces to Myanmar has other implications for India. It suggests that India’s diplomatic efforts to address the crisis in Myanmar have been limited. The instability in Myanmar, particularly the increased rebel activity and cross-border illicit trade, has a direct impact on India’s northeastern states. India will likely need to reassess its approach to Myanmar and consider alternative strategies to protect its interests and maintain regional stability.

As the year 2025 has begun, and Donald Trump has taken over as the President of USA, the Myanmar authorities are also looking for some new direction from the Trump administration. The earlier Biden administration judged the Myanmar situation from human rights angle and adopted policies. Trump being a transactionalist, may like to get benefits for the USA from Myanmar junta. He may not like Chinese influence to increase with the coming to power of the rebels. So despite losses, Myanmar junta is not going for any truce with the rebels at the moment at national level. They are waiting for some response from Washington.

For China, however its realpolitik is such that either way, it is in win win situation. Beijing is comfortable with both the junta and the rebels. Only India, on the other hand have to build fresh relations with the future stake holders of power in Myanmar. Indian diplomacy is on backfoot in its neighbourhood already with the last year’s developments in Bangladesh. New Delhi needs to have a proper dialogue with the rebels including the leaders of democracy movement. (IPA Service)