Trinamool’s Sweeping Victory In Six Bypolls Has Given A Big Boost To Mamata’s Standing In INDIA Bloc

The sweeping victory of the Trinamool Congress candidates in the by polls held to the six assembly constituencies in Bengal on November 20, has surpassed even the wildest expectations of the TMC leadership. Out of the six seats, one Madarihat seat was with the BJP while the other five seats were with the TMC in the 2021 assembly elections. In the by polls, the results of which were announced on November 23, the TMC not only retained its five seats with much bigger margins but also defeated the BJP candidate by more than 30,000 votes, thereby securing all the six seats..In 2021 polls, the BJP won Madarihat seat by trouncing TMC by 29,000 votes.

The polling took place in the wake of the tragic incident at the R.G Kar College relating the rape and murder of a lady medical doctor which led to an unprecedented upsurge of emotions of the doctors and the common people demanding justice for the victim. This upsurge took the form of a widespread movement in which the left parties, especially the CPI(M) took leafing part. The movement which began from August 9 continued till October 21, the day the doctors withdrew their hunger strike following talks with the senior officials of the West Bengal government.

The opposition parties, especially the Left had expectations that this upsurge which targeted the Trinamool government’s corruption under Mamata Banerjee who also is minister in charge of health, will have impact on the electoral mood of the people in the six constituencies in favour of the Left, but nothing such happened..Instead, the voters exercised their mandate with vengeance in favour of the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee.

This is evident from the fact that the Left candidates security deposits were not only forfeited, the voting figures were also much less compared to the 2021 assembly elections. The CPI(M), the leader of the Left Front contested in only one seat and in its two other contested seats of 2021, the party allowed the ISF in Haroa and CPI(ML) Liberation in Naihati. The party faced its worst in Taldanga seat where it contested. Its vote share was below 4 per cent. The irony is that only the ISF candidate at Haroa could save his security deposit. The Left as a whole has been put into electoral wilderness.

As regards the BJP, the state party leadership has no excuse to give. All its campaign against TMC has failed to produce any result, though excepting one, the BJP remains the second party after TMC in terms of voting figures. But that second is too distant. With this loss of Madarihat, the BJP’s strength in the state assembly has gone down to around 69 from the original level of 77 which it got after2021 assembly polls. The BJP has no new programme to offer in Bengal excepting talking of Modi’s guarantee and gloating over the latest win in Maharashtra assembly elections. The next assembly election in Bengal is due in April/May 2026. BJP is clueless, it has no roadmap to fight the aggressive TMC in 2026 polls.

As regards the CPI(M) which still has some semblance of organisation left among the Left parties, the situation is worsening every year. The voting percentage is going down and there is no prospect of any turnaround which the leadership is talking. The state CPI(M) conference on the eve of the Party Congress is due in February 2025. There are plans to bring more younger people in the party but so far, the results are discouraging. Some of the CPI(M) youth members who have joined in the recent years are city centred and focus more on their fight against TMC through Social Media rather than taking part in the movement.

The party has been delinked from the minority masses as also the women and subalterns which was the primary base of the party in the first two decades after the Left Front came to power in 1977. The party has big modern party offices throughout the state but very few whole timers.. There is no honest attempt to assess why there is no incumbency despite corruption rampant among the TMC workers and the marginalised people including labour are still sticking to Mamata Banerjee. The state leadership of the party is directionless.

The latest sweep of Trinamool Congress shows that the TMC is the only party among the INDIA bloc partners which has been consistently defeating BJP in all the elections in the recent years. In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party secured 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh and emerged as the major force electorally against the BJP after the Congress in Lok Sabha.. SP also lost two seating seat this time in the latest by polls. But TMC’s record is unblemished since 2021 assembly elections.

Mamata has thus emerged stronger among the INDIA Bloc partners as a big fighter against the BJP. It is quite possible that the Congress high command will coordinate more with TMC in the coming months, and there can be an alliance of the Congress and the TMC for the 2026 assembly elections. Congress has some influence in the four districts of North Bengal. TMC and the Congress jointly are in a position of reducing BJP’s assembly seats in North Bengal in 2026 polls. North Bengal is the stronghold of BJP in the state.

The positive side of the TMC leadership is that the top leaders especially Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee identify the weaknesses after any reverses and take corrective action. There is a pro-active machinery at the organisational level which is aided by the consultant I-PACK. Already, the party has started the basic work for identifying candidates for the 2026 assembly elections and which programmes should get more focus in the party campaign on the basis of the appraisal from the grassroots level. This approach has helped the TMC to be far ahead of the other opposition parties like the BJP and the CPI(M) in electoral preparedness.

The state CPI(M) is finally looking for recruiting consultants from outside to help the party design strategy for 2026 assembly polls. The CPI(M) as also the Left as a whole have no party face who can come anywhere near the acceptability of Mamata Banerjee to the vast sections of the people. The party has to be prepared for a long haul with a new narrative to draw the attention of the common people.

Bengal has a left tradition. Even in Trinamool, there are many people with left past and still clinging to left perspective. If the coming February conference of the CPI(M) can draw up a viable road map based on objective assessment of the situation, that should at least help the CPI(M) to improve its position in 2026 assembly polls from zero to a few seats. The CPI(M) and the Left should aim to displace the BJP as the main opposition party in the state on a medium term. That may not happen in 2026 polls, but certainly, the Left can look for a turnaround in 2029 Lok Sabha polls and 2031 assembly polls, if proper follow up actions are taken. (IPA Service)