Conservative CDU/CSU Leads In German Elections But Far Right Surges To Second Place

The polarization in German politics widened after national elections on Sunday, February 23 in which the conservative CDU/CSU with 28.5 per cent votes topped among the political parties followed by the far right AFD at 20.7 per cent and the centre-left SPD at 16.5 per cent. The remarkable feature was the resurgence of the left wing De Linke which got 8.7 per cent a big rise compared to its earlier performance.

Among the other parties Greens got 11.7 per cent and the left wing breakaway BSW 4.9 per cent. The Free Democratic Party along got less than the ceiling of five per cent along with BSW. As a result, both these parties will not have any representation in the Bundestag which has a total strength of 630 seats.

The special feature of the Sunday elections was that the FDP, a right wing party favouring free business, the withdrawal of which led to the collapse of the SPD coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz was rejected by the German electorate while the far right AFD got a big boost and the left wing De Linke witnessed a resurgence after a bad phase in the last three years. De Linke’s split away group BSW saw its support base decline. This means that De Line got back some of its bases which it lost to BSW in 2023 and 2024.

According to the political analysts, the voting percentages in terms of the seats means that the CDU/CSU will be getting 208 seats while the AFD tally will be 151, SPD 121, Green 85, De Linke 64 and others 1. In a 630 member house, a majority of 316 is needed. Since all the parties are committed not to support AFD, the coalition talks will start by the CDU/CSU leader Fredrick Merz excluding the AFD. That way, the best combination is coalition of CDU/CSU with SPD which has a total strength of 329 – a clear majority.

In fact with FDP out of Bundestag and the Conservatives not to align with the Left De Linke, the only option left is for the Conservatives and SPD to collaborate to form the new government. SPD on its own can not form a coalition even with the support of the Greens and De Linke. The total comes to only 270, far less than the majority figure. Also Conservatives and Greens have a total tally of 293 much less than the majority figure of 316.

As of now, taking into account the open backing given by the U.S. President Donald Trump to the far right AFD even after the election results, there is a common ground for CDU/.CSU to ally with SPD as both are threatened by the AFD. AFD leader Alice Weidel is most exuberant after the results as she said that AFD’s focus now is only on next national elections in 2029 which the party will win. Also, this new coalition government, if formed will be a unstable one and the AFD will determine the course of the government, she said.

Earlier also, both CDU and SDP have collaborated in coalition governments. So Merz can move for a coalition of the two major parties of natural governance, but the issue will be the programme of the coalition government. Fredrick Merz has already drawn up a 15 point plan to tackle the migration issue which dominated the election campaign in a big way.

He has pledged to work on measures to restrict the flow of people coming into Germany, including tightening controls on the borders and allowing the swifter deportation of refused asylum seekers.

He would also look to make operational an “influx limitation” law, which would bring to an end asylum seekers automatically being allowed to bring their families to Germany. It would end the fast-tracking of German citizenship after three years, and would end the possibility of dual citizenship for non-EU citizens.

He has said he would tackle economic stagnation by “changing the business model” in Germany. This would include cutting red tape, reducing taxes and changing the country’s “debt brake”, disagreements which led to the collapse of the last government.

Merz has also pledged to drastically cut the benefits system, reducing incentives for unemployed people who repeatedly refuse to take up new jobs, by scrapping the “Bürgergeld”.

On foreign policy, he will come under immediate pressure about increasing Germany’s defence spending, currently about 2% of GDP, with widespread opinion it should be at least doubled. Will SPD agree to the programme of Merz? That is the big question.

As regards the Left, De Linke’s big win of 64 seats as against 28 in the outgoing Bundestag is a big boost for the party which was uneasy after the departure of some leading figures from the party and the setting up of BSW. BSW took away 10 MPs out of the total of 38 won by the united De Linke in 2021 national elections. In fact, if the BSW votes are counted, the total left votes come to more than 13 per cent.

The Left in Germany is getting confidence at the improved results despite vigorous campaign in media against the stand of the Left. It is to be seen whether the election results lead to some rethinking among the BSW leaders and facilitate the process of bigger left unity. (IPA Service)