Left Wing MORENA Expected To Win In Mexican General Elections On June 2

For Latin American Left as also the Global Left, there seems to be a welcome news waiting on June 2 as nearly 100 million voters of Mexico including a record number of first timers will be polling to elect a new President as also many other positions including 628 member Parliament. All indications suggest that the ruling Left wing coalition MORENA will win the polls vindicating the acceptability of the incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Abrador’s (better known as AMLO) popular programme for transformation.

AMLO took over presidency in 2018 and ruled for six years retaining high popularity. He is not contesting this 2024 elections since the Mexican constitution permits only one Presidential term.. His party’s nominee is Claudia Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City Mayor. She will be fighting against the main opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, a successful tech entrepreneur and former senator supported by an alliance of the right wing parties. The third candidate is Jorge Alvarez Maynez, the candidate for the citizens movement. Latest opinion polls have put the MORENA’s Sheinbaum more than 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate Galvez.

While the next president will benefit from the economic tailwinds of nearshoring (outsourcing business operations to nearby countries rather than far off ones), Sheinbaum faces a host of domestic challenges, including energy and water shortages, fiscal deficits, violence and the spread of organized crime, and the movement of millions of migrants into and through Mexico.

On the positive side, the next president inherits a growing economy, led by trade with the United States. In 2023, Mexico became the United States’s largest trade partner, with bilateral exchanges nearing $900 billion. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also rose, reaching $36 billion. Much of it was funnelled into manufacturing and companies looking to place production outside of China to more easily access U.S. markets. Still, these inflows fell short compared to other emerging markets and Mexico’s own historic highs a decade ago. A top-fifteen global economy, Mexico received less than 3 percent of global FDI last year.

Limited energy and water availability present significant barriers to a nearshoring boom and Mexico’s industrial takeoff. A 2023 report from investment banking company Morgan Stanley estimated that Mexico needs to invest some $40 billion in power generation and distribution over the next presidential term to keep up with demand. To attract global manufacturing, much of this new electricity needs to be green. However, the current government’s policies have stymied private-sector energy investment and prioritized fossil-fuel electricity generation over the use of renewables. Eleven states and the capital, Mexico City, face significant water shortages due in large part to decrepit infrastructure.

The next president faces heightened insecurity and weakened rule of law. Over the past six years, Mexico has not gotten safer. The murder rate remains high and extortion rates have risen some 50 percent. Organized crime has spread geographically and expanded business operations, including protection rackets for avocado and lime farmers, contraband energy producers, and migrant smugglers. Complaints of public corruption are also rising. Meanwhile, the militarization of security has meant cuts to state and local law enforcement budgets, reducing the capability of civilian police.

Latin American experts say that the new President will also need to grapple with the expanded role of Mexico’s military. Current President AMLO put troops in charge of customs, allowing them to oversee ports, airports, and the management of many of the government’s largest infrastructure projects. This has limited transparency and accountability for major public works while leaving the military more vulnerable to the corrupt influence of organized crime groups. Opposition parties have been alleging that this system has led to a den of corruption with the participation of both officials and military. There is a big demand from the common citizens and the social media to change the existing system.

During his rule, President AMLO spent a lot on programmes for the common people. The finances currently are not in good shape.. The next president will have less money to grapple with the challenges. . Budget deficits now approach 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—levels amid lagging public investments in roads, rails, airports, and border crossings. And the state-owned energy company Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, remains a financial burden.. AMLO injected over $90 billion in Pemex to keep it afloat, but it still owes more than $100 billion, making it the world’s most indebted oil company. The global credit rating agency Moody’s predicts that business as usual at Pemex will soon cost Mexico’s treasury nearly $18 billion per year. For the new President, the primary task will be to sort out the issues relating to this oil conglomerate which is bleeding the government finances.

MORENA presidential candidate Sheinbaum’s platform also entails greater attention to education, culture, sports, and the arts, including health and social security benefits for artists. It offers an increased focus on preventative and mental health, including a national mental health program that encompasses victims of violence. It promises to tackle Mexico’s chronic water problems, including reforms to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)–era National Water Law that turned hydric resources over to wealthy licensees and corporations Sheinbaum has said that water will be a defining issue of her administration. And building on Sheinbaum’s strengths as a climate engineer, it promises to drive the energy transition — not along the lines of the greenwashing model promoted by energy multinationals but within a framework of strengthened public control over the sector, which has been one of the most significant battles of AMLO’s term

MORENA’s election manifesto has generated widespread enthusiasm among the voters. This has been evident from the response to poll campaigns in both cities and rural areas. The MORENA campaigners are giving assurances about fighting corruption and bringing down criminal activities-the two minus points in their performance. But for the common people, living conditions have improved vastly in the last six years. That is the advantage with which the left wing MORENA is facing general elections on June 2. (IPA Service)