By Satyaki Chakraborty

After a gap of 80 years since the fall of fascism in 1945, Germany is once again agog with the militarization of the society in the name of fighting against the possible aggression by Russia. The ground has been laid by the continuing war in Ukraine. German Chancellor Merz along with other two heads of France and Britain are encouraging President Zeleneskyy to continue the devastating war against Russia by making use of the weapons supplied by the European nations. The armaments companies of Germany are most happy at this latest mood in Europe and they have stepped weapons production saying that Germany has to be fully prepared to meet the challenge from President Putin.

But the students and the trade unions are opposing the military drafting proposal as that is meant to cut the costs in social expenditure in the coming period. Already, the Merz government has taken a lot of austerity measures to take care of the challenges on the economic front, now with the militarization moves, the burden on the working class will be much more in 2026 and 2027.

More than 55,000 students in over 80 cities across Germany went on strike last Friday against the “Military Service Modernization Act,” which was passed by the federal parliament, the Bundestag, that same day.

According to the new law, starting this January, all 18-year-olds will receive a questionnaire that will test their willingness and interest in military service. Completing the form will be mandatory for men and voluntary for women. From July 2027, men will also be required to undergo medical examinations.

The move is seen as a major step toward the return of conscription and marks a significant escalation in conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s campaign to turn Germany into the largest conventional military power on the continent.

The law passed 323 to 272, despite determined opposition from left-wing members of parliament from the “Die Linke” party. The approved draft is nominally committed to a system of voluntary military service, but as written, it leaves room for compulsory conscription if recruitment targets are not met.

The goal is to significantly increase the ranks of the German army, which currently numbers about 183,000 regular soldiers and only 49,000 reservists. According to NATO targets, Germany is supposed to reach a strength of 460,000 soldiers—260,000 regulars and 200,000 reservists. That would mark a near-return to troop levels common during the Cold War, when West Germany maintained an army of more than half-a-million men before downsizing its ranks in the 1990s.

The students’ “School Strike Against Conscription” initiative mobilized youth opposition nationwide and demonstrated the extent of the resistance against the law. Students formed strike committees and already spent the past few weeks preparing demonstrations, writing speeches, designing posters, conducting surveys, and mobilizing their classmates.

The wide participation by the students in the strikes and demonstrations has enthused the organisers as also the leftist Die Linke which mobilized all its power to defeat the motion in Bundestag on December 5. The left students unions as also the other fringe groups of Green Party and the Social Democrats have joined hands in the anti-militarisation demonstrations which have emerged as the biggest protest of the youth and students community in the recent period.

More than 2,000 students demonstrated against conscription in Munich. In Berlin, over 10,000 young people took to the streets, 5,000 in Hamburg, and 3,000 in Dresden. In major cities like Munich, Kiel, Stuttgart, and Cologne, thousands of young people also protested. Even in smaller towns like Marburg, Landau, and Friedberg, hundreds took to the streets.

The German Communist Party (DKP) had also called for the strikes. In many places, party members supported the demonstrations. Many other organizations expressed their solidarity, such as the German Peace Society-United War Resisters (DFG-VK) and individual trade union branches.

According to German news agencies, in several cities, participants were subjected to sometimes severe repression. In Halberstadt, high school students were locked in by the school administration and deprived of their freedom. The school administration decreed that recess would take place indoors.

In Leipzig, police removed two students from a demonstration because of a banner calling on Chancellor Merz to join the German Armed Forces himself. The officers claimed this was illegal but could not cite any law that had actually been violated.

In Hamburg, police banned a feeder demonstration and prohibited a spontaneously registered demonstration. In Rostock, the assembly authority unilaterally postponed a registered demonstration until 1 p.m., after school had ended.

The protest will not end with Friday’s strikes, emphasized the “School Strike Against Conscription” initiative. “We will remain vocal until conscription is off the table. We will oppose every step towards its introduction,” announced Ronja Ruh from Berlin.

The initiative is calling for a second round of school strikes on March 5, 2026. Until then, they are preparing for the next strike and campaigning against recruitment in schools. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Communist Party of India(CPI) concluded its five day Party Congress at Chandigarh on September 25 reelecting D. Raja as the general secretary of the CPI for another three year term. Raja is the first dalit leader to head the CPI in 2019 after the then party secretary S Sudhakar Reddy sought retirement. Raja was reelected at the 24th Party Congress and now at the 25th party congress, he was granted the third term by giving him a special exemption from the age limit.

The 25th party congress adopted a number of resolutions including support to the people of Palestine, the heroic struggle of the people of Cuba, the fight against federalism and also covering a number of economic issues. The party leaders expressed big satisfaction at the exuberance shown by the delegates at the five day meet and the grand success of the cultural functions.

The CPI adopted a resolution at its 25th party congress in Chandigarh reaffirming that health is a fundamental right and that universal access to free quality healthcare is essential for social and economic development of India.

The party congress which concluded on September 25 discussed at length the problems being faced by the people in health care in the country’s hospitals in the present period felt that despite some progress, India’s health system continues to be constrained by low public investment and high out of pocket expenditure by the common people for medical issues.

According to the CPI, Public spending on health remains below 2% of GDP, pushing millions into poverty every year due to medical costs. According to NITI Aayog, 7% of households about 10crore people are pushed into poverty every year due to out of pocket health care expenditure. Government’s blatant support to the corporate sector in health care has added to people’s woes which are further getting worse with increasing foreign equity in health care field. Worse is that there is a subtle move to spread communal Hindutva, obscurantist ideology and introduce pseudoscience and myths in the medical science.

The 25th Congress of the CPI emphasized the urgent need to achieve Universal Health Care (UHC), with a focus on strengthening the public health sector, ensuring equity, and building financial protection for all citizens.. The resolution said that health should be included in fundamental rights of the Constitution and public health expenditure has to be increased to 3 per cent of GDP by 2027 and subsequently hike it to 6 per cent of GDP with resources directed towards infrastructure, medicines, diagnostics and human resources.

The CPI resolution also called for expanding and upgrading rural health infrastructure and strengthen primary healthcare as the backbone of the system. The resolution wanted that privatisation of Health and wellness centres, Primary health centres, district hospitals and medical colleges should be abandoned and out of pocket expenditure be reduced to below 10% by 2030 through free essential services, wider social health insurance, and removal of user fees.

Further, the centre should bridge the urban-rural divide by ensuring fair distribution of doctors, nurses, specialists and health care employees, while expanding training and incentives for work in underserved areas.

The CPI resolution demanded stricter regulation of the private sector to ensure quality, affordability, and accountability and promotion of digital health while addressing the digital divide to ensure suitable access.

Apart, medical education should be provided in the state sector and privatization of government medical colleges should be stopped. Starting medical colleges through PPP model should be abandoned.

Medical science and technology should be developed, public funding should be increased for R & D. Research should be encouraged in public sector. Drugs and vaccines should be manufactured in the public sector only. Gender inclusive policies and programmes should be included in all National and State Health Programmes.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Foreign Medical Graduates are not being recognised by the state medical council even though the National Medical Commission has directed to all states to register them. The CPI demanded that these graduates who number about 1400-1500 should be recognised immediately by the AP state medical council.

The CPI declared its commitment to working with people’s movements, governments, and civil society to make UHC a reality, ensuring free, equitable, holistic and quality healthcare for all Indians.

The 25th Congress of the CPI also expressed its serious concerns regarding the recently announced of Goods and Services Tax (GST) 2.0 reforms, which have taken effect from 22nd September 2025.

The Congress resolution highlighted the potential adverse consequences on economic equity, fiscal stability, and the well-being of ordinary citizens, emphasizing that those low-income and middle-income households have to bear a disproportionately heavy burden. It has urged policymakers to reconsider the reforms to prevent further widening of socio- economic inequalities.

Introduced in 2017, India’s GST was hailed as a landmark reform designed to unify the fragmented indirect taxation system, eliminate cascading taxes, and create a unified national market. GST 2.0 seeks to build on these objectives by rationalizing tax slabs, simplifying rates, enhancing compliance mechanisms, and addressing structural inefficiencies. However, despite the intended reforms, critical flaws have emerged, particularly concerning the regressive nature of the tax. Evidence indicates that lower and middle-income households carry a disproportionately high share of the GST burden, as they spend a larger portion of their income on goods and services subject to taxation, said the resolution.

According to the CPI, facts show that the bottom 50% of consumers contribute the majority of GST revenue, with rural households accounting for 31% and urban households 29%. In contrast, the top 20% of earners, including India’s billionaires, contribute far less proportionally, with billionaires contributing only about 3% of total GST collections. This uneven distribution of burden highlights the inherent inequity of a flat-rate consumption tax, which effectively reduces the relative contribution of the wealthy while amplifying the financial pressure on poorer households. GST2.0, by maintaining uniform rates and reducing slabs without compensatory mechanisms, risks deepening these disparities, especially in the absence of stronger direct taxation or targeted relief for vulnerable groups.

The 25th congress of CPI also expressed its profound grief and stands in solidarity with the worst-hit state of Punjab and the millions of people across multiple states enduring unprecedented flooding and natural disasters during the current Kharif season.

The Party recognized that this is not merely a natural phenomenon but a preventable tragedy exacerbated by human failure and policy neglect under the BJP-led Narendra Modi government.

According to the CPI resolution, the scale of devastation is staggering, with over 500 lives lost across Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir, and Assam, and tens of thousands of families displaced. The humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, with reports indicating, 1.Widespread destruction of housing, infrastructure, and livelihoods; 2. Massive agricultural losses affecting more than 10 lakh hectares of cropland; 3. Significant livestock deaths, destroying the primary asset base of rural families; and 4. Complete disruption of essential services in many regions.

The CPI emphasized that these events represent a systemic failure in disaster governance, environmental protection, and developmental planning by the BJP regime. We stand united with all affected communities and demand an urgent, comprehensive, and just response from those in power. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Vietnam has shown how a well calibrated trade diplomacy can be conducted in the year 2025 amidst the ongoing tariff war between the two biggest economic and military powers of the world USA and China. Both countries are having best trade relations with this South East Asian nation which is a sort of leader amongst the emerging economies.

Vietnam’s minister of industry and trade Nguen Hong Dien had telephonic talks on Wednesday night with the U.S. trade representative Jamisen Greer and both side discussed the issues of principles and roadmap for negotiations. Vietnam is making efforts to conclude its trade deal with the U.S. within the 90 day pause declared by the U.S. President Donald Trump early this month. While Mexico and Brazil complained against the U.S. decision soon after the announcement of Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates, Vietnam kept it cool and internally assessed about the best possible option.

US President Donald Trump this month threatened massive 46 percent levies on Vietnam, with Washington accusing the country of facilitating Chinese exports to the United States and allowing Beijing to get around tariffs. This was a delicate charge against Vietnam as for the communist nation which fought both against the USA for long years and paradoxically even against its big brother communist nation China, it was a challenge to keep both the two super powers happy. Vietnam is trying to do that challenging task in the present negotiations with the USA.

The United States was Vietnam’s biggest export market in the first three months of 2025. In fact the U.S, foreign companies are increasingly choosing Vietnam as one of the best destinations for investment. Further in the context of the current trade war with China, some of the China based U.S. companies are shifting operations to Vietnam which is ready with a new policy on foreign direct investment. Vietnam does not want to antagonise USA which offers big possibilities for further growth of Vietnamese economy, but at the same time, Vietnam is keeping China on the right side.

Vietnam’s trade ministry has ordered authorities to tighten control over the origin of goods to avoid U.S. sanctions The full response has not yet been decided but the same will be done in the light of the discussions held with the Chinese President Xi Jinping last week who called upon all the trading nations of Asia to take a position opposing higher tariffs unilaterally imposed by Trump. Xi Jinping also made known his opposition to other countries making trade deals with the USA at Beijing’s expenses. This was meant for Vietnam also as Vietnam manufacturers use large scale Chinese equipment in products exported to the U.S. market.

Vietnam was Southeast Asia’s biggest buyer of Chinese goods in 2024, with a bill of $161.9 billion. So the issue is very crucial for Vietnam as a huge portion of exports to the USA contains Chinese part which has been prohibited as far the present position of Trump.

Vietnam last year had the world’s third-largest trade surplus with the US after China and Mexico. The Asian nation has repeatedly vowed to purchase more American goods such as liquefied natural gas and aircraft, while offering to remove all tariffs on US imports. In fact Vietnam started the process of reducing tariffs on U.S. imports even before the current tariff war.

Vietnam Airlines and Vietcombank on Thursday announced the signing of a provisional deal to finance the purchase of 50 aircraft, which could pave the way for the national carrier to make good on its 2023 commitment to purchase 50 Boeing 737 Max aircraft. This is a part of Vietnam’s effort to meet the U.S. demand of reducing the trade gap. There is a proposal to purchase Lockheed F-16 fighters as a part of the ongoing trade negotiations.

Vietnam is steadily moving to achieve its goal of emerging as the most thriving economy in South East Asia taking advantage of the current tariff war and keeping good terms with both the contending super powers USA and China. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Communist Party of India (CPI) general secretary D. Raja gave a clarion call on Wednesday for the building of principled unity of all communists in India to act as the vanguard of the battle against the Narendra Modi government and the RSS-BJP led Sangh Parivar. Addressing the inaugural session of the 24th congress of the CPI(M) at Madurai, the CPI leader said that the combined Left has to mount a decisive resistance against the corporate communal assault by the Narendra Modi government in the last ten years against the Indian nation, its people and the country’s institutions.

The CPI general secretary’s speech was marked by a sense of urgency of taking united action against the fascist ideology of the RSS and the Sangh Parivar and how this struggle had to be spread in every part of the country. “We must be the voice of the voiceless, the organisers of the organized and hope for the hopeless”, Raja said.

Focusing on the nature of the present crisis in the country, the CPI general secretary said “India today stands at a breaking point. The structural oppressions of class, caste, and patriarchy have become brutal under the BJP-RSS regime, which is nothing but the political tool of the most reactionary sections of the bourgeoisie and landlords.”

India is not merely suffering from bad governance; India is suffocating under a system designed to exploit. The gap between the rich and the poor has never been this shameful. The top 1% of this country now owns more than 40% of the national wealth, while half the population struggles for two meals a day.

According to D. Raja, unemployment is pushing the youth into hopelessness. Agrarian distress is driving farmers to suicide. The public education and health sectors are being systematically destroyed. The working people’s rights — to organize, to dissent, to dream — are under relentless attack. Trade unions are demonized. Universities are turned into RSS laboratories. Journalism is criminalized. The secular-democratic fabric of the Indian republic is being torn apart, thread by thread.

Above all, the RSS-BJP combine is openly targeting the very Constitution of India. It is seeking to dismantle its fundamental pillars — socialism, secularism, federalism, and social justice. Their assault on our Republic is systematic and ideological. RSS as an organisation follows a deeply divisive, communal and fascist ideology. It is inspired from Mussolini and Hitler and follows their organisational principles. BJP is the political arm of the RSS and along with several other organisations, known as the Sangh Parivar. The Sangh Parivar shares the Fascist contempt for democracy and believes in making representative institutions like the Parliament redundant, just as Hitler did. Together, the Sangh Parivar dreams of a theocratic, corporate-ruled India where majoritarianism, caste and capital will dominate without restraint, the CPI leader emphasized.

Raja mentioned “We must lead struggles on the streets, in factories, in villages, in universities — not only against economic exploitation but also against the deep-rooted structures of caste and patriarchy. We must make sure that the slogans of “Jai Bhim,” “Inquilab Zindabad,” and “Lal Salaam” are not mere words but rallying cries for a transformative movement. This is not a choice anymore, comrades — it is our revolutionary duty.”

At the same time, he mentioned “we must also wage a battle for scientific temper, as enshrined in the Constitution. The Communist movement must boldly take up the challenge of using science and technology — including digital tools and AI — in the service of the people. We must fight for universal access to knowledge, technological equity, and against the commodification of science. It was Lenin, after all, who told us, “Communism is Soviet power plus electricity.” Today, it must be Communist strength plus democratized technology.”

The CPI general secretary’s address was also marked by optimism. He said the time is not for hesitation but for action. The situation is grave, but it is also pregnant with possibilities. As Marxists, we understand that the greatest crises can open the greatest opportunities — provided we are ready to lead by example”. Then he went on to add.

“Let us intensify mass struggles. Let us mobilize the workers, peasants, youth, women, Dalits, Adivasis, minorities — all who are oppressed — under the red banner. Let us confront not only the RSS-BJP, but the very system that breeds exploitation, inequality, and injustice.”

The significance of CPI general secretary’s emphasis on principled unity of the communists was taken note of by the assembled delegates and guests as the general secretary of the CPI(ML)-Liberation Dipankar Bhattacharya also addressed the session while Prakash Karat, the former general secretary of the CPI(M) and presently the coordinator of the party after premature death of Sitaram Yechury, was present all through. There are expectation that the Madurai party congress which concludes its session on April 6 will come out with concrete action plan for bringing about that principled unity of the communists in the coming battles to fight the Modi government and the Sangh Parivar. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The polarization in German politics widened after national elections on Sunday, February 23 in which the conservative CDU/CSU with 28.5 per cent votes topped among the political parties followed by the far right AFD at 20.7 per cent and the centre-left SPD at 16.5 per cent. The remarkable feature was the resurgence of the left wing De Linke which got 8.7 per cent a big rise compared to its earlier performance.

Among the other parties Greens got 11.7 per cent and the left wing breakaway BSW 4.9 per cent. The Free Democratic Party along got less than the ceiling of five per cent along with BSW. As a result, both these parties will not have any representation in the Bundestag which has a total strength of 630 seats.

The special feature of the Sunday elections was that the FDP, a right wing party favouring free business, the withdrawal of which led to the collapse of the SPD coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz was rejected by the German electorate while the far right AFD got a big boost and the left wing De Linke witnessed a resurgence after a bad phase in the last three years. De Linke’s split away group BSW saw its support base decline. This means that De Line got back some of its bases which it lost to BSW in 2023 and 2024.

According to the political analysts, the voting percentages in terms of the seats means that the CDU/CSU will be getting 208 seats while the AFD tally will be 151, SPD 121, Green 85, De Linke 64 and others 1. In a 630 member house, a majority of 316 is needed. Since all the parties are committed not to support AFD, the coalition talks will start by the CDU/CSU leader Fredrick Merz excluding the AFD. That way, the best combination is coalition of CDU/CSU with SPD which has a total strength of 329 – a clear majority.

In fact with FDP out of Bundestag and the Conservatives not to align with the Left De Linke, the only option left is for the Conservatives and SPD to collaborate to form the new government. SPD on its own can not form a coalition even with the support of the Greens and De Linke. The total comes to only 270, far less than the majority figure. Also Conservatives and Greens have a total tally of 293 much less than the majority figure of 316.

As of now, taking into account the open backing given by the U.S. President Donald Trump to the far right AFD even after the election results, there is a common ground for CDU/.CSU to ally with SPD as both are threatened by the AFD. AFD leader Alice Weidel is most exuberant after the results as she said that AFD’s focus now is only on next national elections in 2029 which the party will win. Also, this new coalition government, if formed will be a unstable one and the AFD will determine the course of the government, she said.

Earlier also, both CDU and SDP have collaborated in coalition governments. So Merz can move for a coalition of the two major parties of natural governance, but the issue will be the programme of the coalition government. Fredrick Merz has already drawn up a 15 point plan to tackle the migration issue which dominated the election campaign in a big way.

He has pledged to work on measures to restrict the flow of people coming into Germany, including tightening controls on the borders and allowing the swifter deportation of refused asylum seekers.

He would also look to make operational an “influx limitation” law, which would bring to an end asylum seekers automatically being allowed to bring their families to Germany. It would end the fast-tracking of German citizenship after three years, and would end the possibility of dual citizenship for non-EU citizens.

He has said he would tackle economic stagnation by “changing the business model” in Germany. This would include cutting red tape, reducing taxes and changing the country’s “debt brake”, disagreements which led to the collapse of the last government.

Merz has also pledged to drastically cut the benefits system, reducing incentives for unemployed people who repeatedly refuse to take up new jobs, by scrapping the “Bürgergeld”.

On foreign policy, he will come under immediate pressure about increasing Germany’s defence spending, currently about 2% of GDP, with widespread opinion it should be at least doubled. Will SPD agree to the programme of Merz? That is the big question.

As regards the Left, De Linke’s big win of 64 seats as against 28 in the outgoing Bundestag is a big boost for the party which was uneasy after the departure of some leading figures from the party and the setting up of BSW. BSW took away 10 MPs out of the total of 38 won by the united De Linke in 2021 national elections. In fact, if the BSW votes are counted, the total left votes come to more than 13 per cent.

The Left in Germany is getting confidence at the improved results despite vigorous campaign in media against the stand of the Left. It is to be seen whether the election results lead to some rethinking among the BSW leaders and facilitate the process of bigger left unity. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

With just two days left for the national elections in Germany scheduled for next Sunday, February 23, all opinion polls suggest a near ten point lead by the conservative CDU/CSU combo as against the far right AFD which is threatening to take over power in European Union’s richest economy with the open backing of the U.S. President Donald Trump and his accomplice Elon Musk.

Latest opinion polls tracked by The Guardian newspaper on February 20 put the CDU/CSU percentage at 30.3 per cent as against AFD’s 20.3 per cent while the present ruling party SPD recorded only 15.4 per cent and the Greens 13.1 per cent. The significant feature is that the traditional left party De Linke got 6.9 per cent, much higher compared to opinion polls recorded on January 20. The other left wing party BSW got 4.4 per cent and the FDP 4.3 per cent in February 20 opinion polls.

The election campaign in the last phase is taking place in a tense environment with the AFD being projected as a lackey of the Trump regime and enemy of Germany and Europe. The U.S. vice president J D Vance met in Munich last week with the AFD leader Alice Weidel and extended his support in the formation of the government. Vance had a big fight with the German chancellor Olaf Scholtz of the SPD in the Munich conference about the issues of the German elections and the bid by the non-far right parties not to allow AFD to come near power by declaring not to ally with the party.

As of now, the CDU/CSU leader Fredrick Merz has said that his party will never ally with the AFD in spite of the AFD’s probability of getting second position after the Sunday’s elections. So is the position of SPD, Greens and the two Left parties. The FDP’s strength is now so low that even if it supports, that will not make much difference. That way, AFD which is the part of the emerging global far right combination. has not much possibility to be a part of the coalition that will be formed after February 23 polls.

Taking into account the positioning of the political parties in Germany, CDU/CSU, the party of former chancellor Angela Markel is comfortably placed to head the future coalition on the basis of seats coming from its 30 per cent plus vote., The party can form a coalition with SPD or with Greens and FDP, excluding the Left. SPD, Social Democrats have been in alliance with the CDU/CSU combine earlier, that way the SDP has no political inhibition, but Fredrick Merz is more comfortable with an alliance with the non-SPD parties to enjoy bigger autonomy as the leader of the coalition.

Presently in some of the provinces, the SPD is enjoying power in cooperation with the Greens and the Left. The AFD improved its position substantially in the recent provincial elections, but the party was kept out of power as no other party was keen to take AFD as partner in the coalition. If this attitude persists at national level, then even if AFD increases its voting figure from 20 per cent now to 22 or 23 per cent on the final day, it has little chance to be a part of the future coalition. But certainly, AFD as the second largest party in the German parliament will be in a position to influence the course of German politics.

The BSW led by firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht last year did well in national opinion polls crossing the figure of SPD but it failed to maintain that tempo. The party earlier thought of bringing back the disgruntled German workers who joined the AFD from the left trade unions. But this programme of BSW has not worked well, though in the initial stage, many workers joined the BSW leaving AFD. Now, the BSW has again stepped up the campaign amongst the workers and students aligned with AFD to join BSW .

Interestingly. In the battle between the BSW and its parent party De Linke, the parent party has started improving fast before the elections. In just one month, while the BSW dropped from 5.3 to 4.4, the De Linke increased its share from 3.3 to the latest 6.9. This is more than double in just one month. The opinion poll results have infused the De Line workers more and they have been campaigning hard to improve the party’s position further. In the present Bundestag, out of the 537 seats, the De Linke had originally 38 seats after the last elections, but with the split , De Linke has now got 28 seats while the BSW has got 10 seats.

The official left party De Linke also has launched a big drive to bring back the labour union members who left the party unions in the recent years. Since there is a competition between BSW and De Linke to draw new members, this is having a positive impact on both the organisations. The left supporters of Germany are keenly watching the campaign of both the parties. They are hopeful that the total seats of Left in new Bundestag may go up. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The anti-discrimination students body which pioneered the massive upsurge in Bangladesh last year leading to the fall of the Awami League government on August 5 and abdication of the then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India, is set to float their new political party with specific programme and constitution by the end of this month. The preparatory committee is proceeding at a breakneck speed to finalise the list of the members of the proposed leadership and if everything goes as per current programme, the announcement may be made even on February 24.

As of now, the indication is that Nahid Islam, the adviser in charge of information and publicity of the interim government led by Dr. Mohammad Yunus will take over as the general secretary. He is expected to resign from his present position shortly. Nahid is among the two members representing the students body in the interim government. He has been highly active in pushing the students body programmes through Yunus government. He has organisational skill. So he has been selected as the prime leader of the new party. The other adviser from the students body, will remain in the interim government for the time being, it is learnt.

The Jatiyo Nagarik Committee (JNC), the other platform of the anti-Hasina movement will also be a part of the proposed new political party. This party will have a separate students wing which can be also announced along with the formation of the new Party. The students and youth have taken vanguard position in the movement against the Awami League government rule in the last few years. Women, especially girl students have taken part in large numbers. The new political party is expected to include a substantial number of women activists in the political committee which will devise the planning and strategy of the new party.

The anti-discrimination body of students as also the JNC leaders have taken note of the resurgence of the BNP along with its students wing as also some activities by the Chhatra League, the students wing of the Awami League. Earlier, the formation talks were going at a slower pace with indication that the new party will be formed by March this year, but the spurt in the activities of the BNP and to some extent Hasina supporters bid to become pro-active, have led the students body leadership to proceed fast in taking a final decision. The new political party will chalk out its action plan to confront both BNP and Jamaat who are expanding their network to get ready for the national elections, probably by the end of this year.

The students body has deep apprehension that the Yunus government may slacken its efforts to hasten the process of extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India. The students body is firm on this. They have told Dr. Mohammad Yunus that there can not be any compromise by the interim government on the issue of extradition. Also, the students body wants the national election commission to ban Awami League from the electoral fray before the coming general elections. Both BNP and Jamaat are opposed to this. BNP wants that Awami League leaders against whom there are no charges, can be allowed to participate.

The chief adviser Dr. Mohammad Yunus is naturally worried at the pace of political developments in Bangladesh with conflicting pulls and pressures on him. The students body has good influence on him but he as the chief of the ruling regime, can not endorse many of the programmes put by them. The BNP and the Jamaat are sitting on his neck not to allow him to concede to the demands of the students body. BNP and Jamaat are also fighting on a number of issues, but while opposing the students body, they are together.

Dr. Yunus’s immediate worry is how to deal with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has got a sort of green signal from Donald Trump at the February 13 meeting to go ahead with his moves on Bangladesh. Bangladesh adviser in charge of foreign affairs Touhid Hossain had a meeting with the Indian foreign minister Dr. S Jaishankar at Muscat on February 16 at the Indian Ocean conference. The Bangladesh side was very cordial and both sides talked about a number of areas for improving bilateral relations. Ahead of the talks between the two countries on border areas, the talks between the two ministers were significant.

As far as Bangladesh is concerned, the country loses a lot by not having normal relations with India. Dr. Yunus knows that but he has to respect the sentiments of his countrymen who catapulted him to power of the present regime on August 8 last year. They identify Hasina with India and they are hell bent on sticking to Hasina’s extradition from India as a condition for initiating normal relations with India.

Earlier Dr. Yunus tried to have a one on one meeting with Narendra Modi in New York on the occasion of the United National general assembly meeting in September last year. But the Indian Prime Minister deliberately rescheduled his programme to avoid any meeting possibility with the Bangladesh chief adviser. Now another opportunity is approaching. On April 3 and 4, BIMSTEC conference will be held in Thailand where both Dr. Yunus and Narendra Modi are supposed to go. Dr. Yunus is looking for this summit to have detailed talks with the Indian PM. If Indian PM agrees to have full discussions instead to have a courtesy call type meeting, there can be some breakthrough in India-Bangladesh relations.

But in the remaining six weeks, Bangladesh will also try to strengthen its position on Hasina extradition from India by approaching the world forums including the UN Human Rights body based on its report on the atrocities committed by Hasina government in the July-August movement. Already a European body and another UN team have prepared their reports confirming some of the atrocities. The Bangladesh justice department is learnt to be trying to approach the US government on the issue of extradition citing those reports.

At the other level, Dr. Yunus has established a link with Elon Musk which he hopes to be of some benefit in the coming days. Reports emanating from Dhaka say that the draft guidelines for internet linking and broadband have been released and Musk’s Starlink’s entry into Bangladesh is just a matter of weeks. Dr. Yunus played a big role in revolutionizing the telecom market in Bangladesh through Grameenphone which helped in giving mobile access to the rural areas. In the same way, the Bangladesh government officials are viewing that Musk’s Starlink will play a big role in expanding broadband internet in the remotest areas of the country. Dr Yunus has invited Elon Musk to visit Bangladesh. It will be seen whether Musk responds to Yunus’s invitation and it takes place before his visit to India accompanying Donald Trump at the time of QUAD meeting in New Delhi around April this year. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

U.S. President Donald Trump has started breaking all conventions about abiding by international laws b h announcing the U.S. government’s sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) taking the plea that the ICC is biased against the U.S. and Israel. Donald Trump launched sanctions against the global body, which is seen as a vital last resort to prosecute powerful individuals accused of atrocities including war crimes and genocide.

Set up more than two decades ago to serve as an impartial and incorruptible body that had the heft to take on criminals – from militant warlords to heads of state – the ICC has found itself under attack from Washington at a time when it is investigating shocking violence in Gaza.

The US president signed an executive order on Thursday authorising aggressive economic sanctions against the ICC and travel bans on its staff, accusing the court of “illegitimate and baseless actions” targeting the US and its ally Israel. Trump’s order cited an ICC-issued arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes relating to the Gaza war as a reason for the decision. Netanyahu visited Washington this week and praised Trump as Israel’s “greatest friend”.

The US has not yet disclosed who will be sanctioned under the order, but four sources with knowledge of the situation said the ICC’s British chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, is the first and only individual to be targeted so far. Responding to the order on Friday, the ICC called on its 125 state parties to stand against the sanctions, describing Washington’s move as an attempt to “harm its independent and impartial judicial work”.

Seventy-nine countries – including Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Nigeria – released a joint letter that warned sanctions would “increase the risk of impunity for the most serious crimes and threaten to erode the international rule of law”.

Longtime US allies have found themselves at odds with Washington, while the head of a leading global rights group called it “vindictive”. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said sanctions would “jeopardise an institution that is supposed to ensure that the dictators of this world cannot simply persecute people and start wars”. France said it would reaffirm its support for the ICC and mobilise with its partners so that the ICC could continue its mission. In London, a spokesperson for the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, said Britain supported the independence of the court.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the ICC gave “a voice to victims worldwide” and it “must be able to freely pursue the fight against global impunity”, while the main UN rights agency said Trump’s decision should be reversed.

In his order, Trump said the ICC had “abused its power” by issuing the warrants for Netanyahu and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant, which he claimed “set a dangerous precedent” that endangered US citizens and its military personnel. Netanyahu strongly applauded Trump’s move, calling it bold.

The ICC was established in 2002 to prosecute serious crimes committed by individuals when member states are unwilling or unable to do so themselves. While the US and Israel are not parties to the statute, their citizens can fall under its jurisdiction. Israel has other allies such as the UK, Germany and France who would be obliged to arrest Netanyahu if he were to travel to those countries.

The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were approved by a three-judge panel elected by state parties, and an arrest warrant has also been issued for the Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, whose whereabouts is unknown. In 2021, the ICC ruled that it had jurisdiction in Palestine and could investigate crimes there, despite Israeli objections.

Amnesty International’s secretary general, Agnès Callamard, said Trump’s order “sends the message that Israel is above the law and the universal principles of international justice”. She said on Thursday: “Today’s executive order is vindictive. It is aggressive. It is a brutal step that seeks to undermine and destroy what the international community has painstakingly constructed over decades, if not centuries: global rules that are applicable to everyone and aim to deliver justice for all.”

After ICC judges issued the arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant in November, the court braced itself for retaliatory moves by the incoming Trump administration. Officials at the court, fear the sanctions could pose an existential threat to the judicial body.

Emergency meetings were held on Friday among senior court officials to rapidly assess the implications of Trump’s order, which one official said had been written in such a way that it was “broad enough to be very disruptive for the court if [the US] wants it to be”.

Among the issues alarming the court is a requirement in the order that within 60 days the US Treasury submits to Trump the names of “additional persons” to be targeted with sanctions. ICC sources said this would hang over the court and create considerable uncertainty for its staff, operations and access to services it depends on to function.

Sanctions placed on Khan would severely hamper his day-to-day work at the court, former and current prosecution officials said. It is expected that Khan will have to be effectively debarred from certain cases and some of his staff. He would also be prevented from travelling to the US. In all, the sanctions have imposed some operational difficulties for the ICC which the global watchdog body has to deal with now on an emergency basis. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has released its draft political resolution for the 24th congress of the Party to be held in Madurai in April this year. The last party congress was held in 2022 and so the coming congress held after three years, is expected to make an appraisal of the party’s performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as also formulate the best strategy for fighting the ruling BJP and the Sangh Parivar’s onslaught against the core values of the Indian constitution.

The draft of the political resolution will be discussed by all the state units at all levels. The amendments can be suggested and those will be taken up at the Madurai Party Congress. The political resolution will be finalized after the amendments to the draft approved in the Congress, are incorporated. The final political resolution adopted in the party congress will guide the CPI(M) leadership and its members for the next three years.

CPI(M) is a constituent of the INDIA bloc, which is the conglomerate of the Congress, the regional parties and the Left parties, including the CPI(M), to take on the ruling BJP-led Union government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The CPI(M) draft says the Party will cooperate with INDIA bloc parties in Parliament and on agreed issues outside Parliament. The Party will join Hands with all secular democratic forces on issues of authoritarian onslaughts against democracy, the use of draconian laws to suppress dissent and large-scale privatization.

Fair enough. This is a viable strategy. But in its assessment of regional parties, the CPI(M) draft makes a surprising omission.. The Party draft divides the regional parties into three categories- the first are those parties which are consistently opposed to the BJP. These are parties like the DMK, SP, RJD, NCP, AAP and JMM. Secondly, there are parties which are allied with the BJP and are in the NDA like JD(U), TDP,JD(S), AGP, Jana Sena and smaller parties. The third category includes BJD, YSRCP and AIADMK. BRS has been kept separately.

Now the question comes: where is the place for Trinamool Congress in the three categories mentioned in the draft? TMC is the third largest party within the India bloc in Lok Sabha, after the Congress and SP. The party won all those 29 seats defeating the BJP. After the Lok Sabha polls last year, there were ten by-polls in Bengal. TMC won all those by higher margins, even defeating the BJP in its two sitting seats. How can the CPI(M) draft ignore the existence of the TMC while categorizing the regional parties? Just because the TMC dethroned the CPI(M)-led Left Front in 2011 assembly elections in Bengal and has been winning assembly elections ever since, does not mean that its role in the INDIA bloc is to be ignored.

However, Trinamool Congress has been mentioned in a separate para in the draft. The draft says the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal is an ‘autocratic party based on a criminal-corrupt-political nexus, which is virulently anti-communist’. It can be CPI(M)’s own observation. The CPI(M) is entitled to it. The draft says the TMC is electorally opposed to the BJP and seeks to maintain the binary of the TMC versus BJP to marginalize the CPI(M) and the Left. The observation is funny. If there is a binary of TMC versus BJP, that is due to the specific political and electoral situation in Bengal.TMC is a political party, it will seek to gain strength by marginalizing its opponents including the BJP and the CPI(M). It is not the task of the TMC to help the CPI(M) coming out of such electoral situation in the state. It is up to the state CPI(M) through its movements and actions in fighting both the TMC and the BJP. If the state CPI(M) fails to do that and becomes a virtual nonentity in the eyes of the voters of Bengal, the blame lies with the state CPI(M), not to any other party.

This type of distortion in the assessment of the ruling TMC in West Bengal made in the CPI(M) draft of the Congress, is harmful for the CPI(M) in arriving at a correct strategy for turnaround in the state. Throughout history, even including our epics, there is a saying that you can fight an enemy only by knowing fully their strengths and weaknesses. The central leadership of the CPI(M) has been committing a big mistake by not objectively assessing the political situation in West Bengal.

The CPI(M) central leadership has to admit that West Bengal is a completely different case compared to Kerala. Kerala, the state ruled by the Left Democratic Front led by the CPI(M), is going to assembly polls in 2026 along with West Bengal. The battle will be tough. All along in Kerala, the fight has been between two more or less equals. Even if the LDF loses in 2026 polls to the Congress-led UDF, that will be a normal feature in Kerala politics. The LDF including CPI(M) and the CPI will be retaining their electoral base and the LDF could bid for victory in the 2031 assembly polls. The KeralaCPI(M)’s political base of trade unions, peasants and students have remained intact. It may even expand in the coming period.

But in West Bengal, the political situation is completely different. The CPI(M) has been continuing to lose its base among all sections, especially, the workers, peasants and women in the last thirteen years. The party’s voting percentage is in the range of 5 to 6 per cent now. The minorities are predominantly with the TMC, so also the unorganized workers and women. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has built her own charisma which is phenomenal. These are hard realities. Keeping these in mind only, the state unit of the CPI(M) can work on its future strategy for turnaround based on long term planning.

The West Bengal state conference is scheduled for February 22 to 25 at Dankuni. The delegates must get an objective assessment of the state politics and how both the BJP and the TMC can be fought. The draft must be amended to include that TMC belongs to the first category of regional parties which are opposed to the BJP. Or if the CPI(M) leadership thinks otherwise, let them be included in any other category, but the party’s final political resolution should not come out with a half-baked picture of the political reality in West Bengal.

The CPI(M) fails to understand that the 18th Lok Sabha polls addressed an all-India phenomenon, namely, whether BJP was to gain a thumping majority, or if its wings would be clipped. This was the essence of the binary and the Left in West Bengal hardly addressed this issue. For the Left, TMC and BJP being equivalent, it overrated the threat of TMC, allowing TMC to thwart BJP and marginalize the Left by default. This debacle, that way, was largely CPI(M)’s own making.

The CPI(M) has to understand that Mamata is no Jayalalithaa or Mayawati-like woman leader. She has high instincts about assessing the political trends and she is constantly monitoring and taking corrective actions, when needed. She is a 24×7 political leader having personal connect with the poor and women. She is an organizational expert also, otherwise she could not have built the organization from scratch after leaving the Congress in 1998 and ousted the high powered Left Front from power in 2011 assembly elections.

There are many weaknesses in the functioning of the Trinamool Congress and at the same time it has areas of strength. The State CPI(M) as also other Left Front partners have to discuss how to exploit the weaknesses of the TMC and at the same time prepare alternative way to fight the strengths. The CPI(M) state conference has to discuss all these with an open mind and come to some concrete action programme. It is no use giving excuse of binary and terming the TMC autocratic and corrupt. The issue is how to get back the support base of the Left which eroded in the last decade. Only by strengthening the party organization and expanding the support base, the CPI(M) can fight the binary of the electoral situation in West Bengal. There is no other way. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

More than six weeks have passed since the visit of Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri to Dhaka on December 9 and his wide ranging talks with his Bangladeshi counterpart to improve the worsening bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries. Latest indications, however, suggest that the interim government headed by Dr. Mohammad Yunus is courting Pakistan in a big way through collaboration in the area of defence sector which poses a security threat to India.

The contacts between Bangladesh army and the Pakistan defence forces began soon after the fall of the Hasina government on August 5 last year, but it was limited to the visits of middle-level army officers. However, this week, Pakistan’s intelligence chief Lt. General Asim Malik reached Dhaka and held discussions with his Bangladeshi counterpart. Both countries officially did not speak about the nature of talks but it certainly focused on collaboration in intelligence sharing.

Earlier this month, Bangladeshi army delegation visited Islamabad and had talks with the Pakistan army chief General Syed A Munir and discussed strategic relationship in defence matters. Even though, no details were given officially, it is apparent that both sides had discussions about framing some common strategy towards India which has more than four thousand kilometres of border with Bangladesh. Earlier in November this year, Bangladesh imported 35,000 special type rifles from Pakistan. An agreement was reached then also training of a section of Bangladeshi troops by the Pakistan army. A Pakistani navy vessel arrived at Chittagong port for the first time late last year.

While at the defence level, Bangladesh is in talks with its earlier arch enemy Pakistan, China has launched a big move to enter into new areas of business and economic cooperation in Bangladesh. Beijing was not cordial with Sheikh Hasina, when she visited China as Prime Minister in July last year, but in the recent discussions, with Bangladesh officials, Beijing took a softer attitude and offered Dhaka many concessions which China earlier refused.

Beijing has agreed in principle to extend the repayment period for Chinese loans and assured Dhaka it will look into the request to lower the interest rate to ease Bangladesh’s foreign debt repayment pressure. The issue came up for discussion between the visiting foreign adviser of the Yunus government Touhid Hossain who was on a five day visit. Hossain had a meeting with the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. China is Bangladesh’s fourth largest lender after Japan, World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank with total loans disbursed since 1975 to a total of US$ 7.5 billion.

At the meeting, Hossain requested lowering the interest rate on Chinese loans from 2-3 percent to 1 percent, waiving the commitment and management fees and extending the loan repayment period from 20 years to 30 years for both the preferential buyer’s credit and government concessional loans.

Praising Bangladesh’s good track record in repayment, Wang agreed to extend the maturity period for loans provided to the country and also assured of looking into the request of lowering the interest rate on the loans, according to a statement from the Bangladesh foreign ministry.

Also Hossain held a meeting with Luo Zhaohui, the chairman of the China International Development Cooperation Agency, about Chinese loans. Hossain requested Luo to ramp up concessional loans and grants and the number of projects China funds in Bangladesh. Luo responded positively and sought a list of priority projects from Bangladesh. Luo said China may consider larger projects in Bangladesh, with some project funds extended as grants. As a result, the average interest rate of Chinese loans will go down, he said.

Both sides also discussed the financing of projects in metro rail and the Southern Infrastructure Development Initiative (SIDI) in Bangladesh. At Hossain’s bilateral meeting with the Chinese foreign minister, Beijing assured of continued duty-free and quota-free access to Bangladeshi products for three years after graduation from the least-developed country bracket in 2026.

Wang also conveyed China’s decision to designate three to four recognised hospitals in Kunming for treatment of Bangladeshi patients. He also welcomed Bangladesh’s proposal of setting up a specialised tertiary-level Chinese hospital in Dhaka as a gesture of goodwill on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of Bangladesh-China diplomatic relations.

Both sides conveyed their readiness to organise a host of activities to mark the occasion. Wang requested Bangladesh to consider joining Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three global initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilisation Initiative.

Recognising Bangladesh’s strategic position, the two sides emphasised continued cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. China wants to see Bangladesh’s economic development in pace with their own development and assured China’s continued support for the projects conducive to the livelihood of the people of Bangladesh, Wang said.

The two sides expressed their willingness to work closely on proposed Chinese-funded projects: the Dasherkandi sewage treatment plant, the upgradation and modernisation of Mongla Port and the establishment of digital connectivity and 4G expansion. Bangladesh is yet not a member of China dominated regional body RCEP. The Bangladesh foreign ministry earlier cleared the proposal for Bangladesh membership but till now, Yunus government has not officially applied to the RCEP authorities.

Like China, Pakistan is also proactive in expanding its economic interests in Bangladesh. Already, in the last two months, Islamabad and Dhaka had talks about the trade possibilities but now, Islamabad wants a full-fledged meeting of the Pakistan Bangladesh Joint Economic Commission to start a new era in bilateral economic relations. Bangladesh is also making preparations and its ministries have been asked to earmark the areas where Pakistan can replace the supplies from Indian sources. Islamabad has mostly identified but Bangladesh is yet to make its list final as the administration is not sure to what extent, Dhaka can be benefitted by diverting to Pakistan supplies from India.

The holding of a JEC meeting in a big way is the brainwave of the Pakistan foreign ministry and the Islamabad strategy is to give some concessions to Bangladesh taking into the additional costs due to distance compared to India. Bangladesh has already requested granting duty free access to ten product categories covering 104 items.. Further Pakistan is assuring Bangladesh of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

As regards USA, There is little movement now as the new charge de affairs in Dhaka Tracey Ann Robertson in Dhaka joined only on January11 this year. The US embassy has got no fresh direction after Trump’s inauguration on January 20. South Asia is presently not the priority of the new President, but still the political circles in Dhaka are predicting exit of Dr. Yunus as interim head once Trump puts his attention on Bangladesh. Chief adviser Dr. Yunus is presently attending the five day World Economic Meet at Davos which ends on January 24. He has till now met large number of state heads and businessmen to explain the Bangladesh situation. He is also equally looking for some signal from Trump advisers

India’s options are limited for the time being. Bangladesh officials are not ready to carry any serious discussions till India takes some steps on their demand for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina to Dhaka which India has rejected. Much will depend how the political situation takes shape in Bangladesh. Till then, China and Pakistan will reap maximum benefits from the new regime while India watches. (IPA Service)

The article Bangladesh’s Increasing Defence Relations With Pakistan Posing Threat To India appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

China has scored a major diplomatic victory in Myanmar by helping the conclusion of a truce between the ruling military junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in the provinces bordering China. The MNDAA rebels took control of large areas around the border by driving out the junta troops last month. China was negotiating a deal as the mediator for the last two weeks and it was finally announced on Saturday.

The Myanmar war began from February 1, 2021 after the military took over power in the country overthrowing the elected government of Aung San SuuKyi. It is the second such pact in little over a year, a previous one in January 2024 not having been honoured by either side. The new ceasefire agreement brokered by China gives the Chinese government big advantage in reshaping the nature of the future government in this neighbouring country where China has big investments. Among the other big powers, US and the EU members have imposed sanctions against the Junta government for its undemocratic actions while India, while keeping relations, have not been too close to the regime. India also have very little contacts with the rebel groups.

China, on the other hand, has not taken any action against the military regime but at the same time called upon them to have negotiations with the rebels and the SuuKyi supporters of the Movement for Democracy. In the provinces bordering China, the rebels got assistance from the Beijing authorities also. In all, China is most advantageously placed in Myanmar now in respect of its relationship with all stakeholders.

China has a big stake in ensuring stability in Myanmar in view of protecting its large investments in infrastructure sector. Chinese spokesperson said on Saturday ‘We hope that all parties will maintain the momentum of ceasefire and peace talks, earnestly implement existing common understandings, take the initiative in de-escalating the situation on the ground and further negotiate and settle relevant issues through dialogue.”

Chinese officials said China stands ready to promote talks and provide support for the peace process in northern Myanmar. They did not give details and nor did Myanmar’s military government immediately comment on the ceasefire.

The Myanmar Civil War, also known as the Burmese Civil War, Burmese Spring Revolution or People’s Defensive War, is an ongoing civil war since 2021. It began following Myanmar’s long-running insurgencies, which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The exiled National Unity Government and major ethnic armed organisations repudiated the 2008 Constitution and called instead for a democratic federal state.

Besides engaging this alliance, the ruling government of the State Administration Council (SAC), also contends with other anti-SAC forces in areas under its control. Defence experts observed the insurgents are apportioned into hundreds of armed groups scattered across the country.

As of March 2023, the United Nations estimated that since the coup in February 2021, 17.6 million people in Myanmar required humanitarian assistance, while 1.6 million were internally displaced, and over 55,000 civilian buildings had been destroyed..United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) said that over 40,000 people had fled into neighbouring countries, such as Bangladesh, India and Thailand.

As of October 2023, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, controlled under 40% of the country, although they maintained that they controlled around two-thirds of the country’s 330 townships. In the second half of 2023, Chinland Defense Forces in Chin State had captured a majority of the state, with a few holdouts in urban areas and along the India–Myanmar border remaining. In October 2023, the Tatmadaw began facing manpower issues, with desertions and low morale being extremely common. This coincided with a major offensive by the People’s Defense Force and Three Brotherhood Alliance in the west of the country, which was successful in taking 80 bases, 220 SAC positions and several towns by 28 November 2023.

October and November 2023 saw a series of concurrent anti-SAC offensives, including Operation 1111 besieging the state capital of Loikaw and renewed conflict by anti-SAC forces in northern Rakhine and Chin states. In Operation 1027, anti-SAC forces seized Laukkai, the capital of Kokang Self-Administered Zone, in early January 2024. Northern Shan State fighting stopped with the Haigeng ceasefire after the fall of Laukkai. The Rakhine offensive, however, continued in northern Rakhine state with Mrauk U, among others, falling to the Arakan Army in February 2024.

As of February 2024, thousands of the SAC’s soldiers surrendered without a fight, including six generals of the Tatmadaw. The SAC used terror tactics against the population, including burnings, beheadings, mutilations, war rape, torching villages, and a massive aerial bombing campaign that has displaced nearly 3 million people. The Myanmar Air Force has dropped more bombs per capita than have been dropped in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In late March 2024 anti-SAC forces in southeastern Myanmar captured Demoso and Papun, bringing the number of district-level towns captured by anti-SAC forces up to eight. The ninth district-level town, Matupi, was captured by Chin resistance in mid June 2024. In late June 2024 the Three Brotherhood Alliance restarted Operation 1027 after claiming that Tatmadaw forces had broken the ceasefire, capturing the tenth district level town, Kyaukme, by the end of the month.

On 17 July, two more district level towns were captured by the Brotherhood Alliance, Thandwe and Mongmit, bringing the number up to twelve. On 3 August, the MNDAA as part of a wider effort from the Three Brotherhood Alliance and other resistance groups captured Lashio, the largest town in northern Shan State, as well as the headquarters of the SAC’s Northeastern Command. On 20 December 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) claimed to have captured a large tracts of areas near the Chinese border belonging to Rakhine province. China took maximum interest in this and organized mediation resulting in the latest truce.

India, despite its large investments in Myanmar had no active contacts with the rebels. Only late last year, a move was initiated to organize a meeting with the representatives of the rebels. The follow up meetings were not held. For India, China is a big power rival in Myanmar and its increasing presence and influence can hurt the interests of India as China has its own geopolitical goals.

The recent news of China deploying private security companies to protect its infrastructure and other projects in Myanmar is alarming for India. Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war since the 2021 coup, creating a politically volatile environment. The entry of Chinese nationals as security guards represents a significant escalation. It suggests that traditional diplomatic channels have failed to provide adequate security assurances to Chinese investors and the government. This deployment of private security personnel introduces a new and complex dimension to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. The interesting feature is that Chinese move has the approval of the junta administration.

Political observers in Myanmar believe that such a move could further escalate tensions and potentially lead to unintended consequences. While many countries have invested in infrastructure and businesses in Myanmar, the 2021 coup has led to a significant withdrawal of foreign investment. Many companies have ceased operations and closed down their businesses due to the deteriorating political and security situation.

China, as a close neighbour with substantial investments in Myanmar, is particularly concerned about the impact of the conflict on its interests. The inability to conduct business and contain the damage to infrastructure projects have forced China to consider alternative solutions, including the deployment of private security forces. However, if other countries with significant investments in Myanmar, such as Japan, South Korea, Russia, or the United States, follow suit and deploy their own private security personnel, it could escalate tensions and create a more volatile environment, feel experts.

For instance, India has substantial investments in Myanmar, with several infrastructure projects underway that involve Myanmar, India, and Bangladesh. If India were to deploy its own troops or security personnel to protect its interests, it could further complicate the situation and potentially escalate tensions in the region.

China’s decision to deploy private security forces to Myanmar has other implications for India. It suggests that India’s diplomatic efforts to address the crisis in Myanmar have been limited. The instability in Myanmar, particularly the increased rebel activity and cross-border illicit trade, has a direct impact on India’s northeastern states. India will likely need to reassess its approach to Myanmar and consider alternative strategies to protect its interests and maintain regional stability.

As the year 2025 has begun, and Donald Trump has taken over as the President of USA, the Myanmar authorities are also looking for some new direction from the Trump administration. The earlier Biden administration judged the Myanmar situation from human rights angle and adopted policies. Trump being a transactionalist, may like to get benefits for the USA from Myanmar junta. He may not like Chinese influence to increase with the coming to power of the rebels. So despite losses, Myanmar junta is not going for any truce with the rebels at the moment at national level. They are waiting for some response from Washington.

For China, however its realpolitik is such that either way, it is in win win situation. Beijing is comfortable with both the junta and the rebels. Only India, on the other hand have to build fresh relations with the future stake holders of power in Myanmar. Indian diplomacy is on backfoot in its neighbourhood already with the last year’s developments in Bangladesh. New Delhi needs to have a proper dialogue with the rebels including the leaders of democracy movement. (IPA Service)

The article Beijing Scores Diplomatic Victory In Myanmar Via Regional Ceasefire appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

France landed on Wednesday night once again into a deeper political crisis after a no-confidence vote brought down the government, ending the beleaguered minority coalition of the conservative Prime Minister Michel Barnier propped up by the far right National Rally (RN) after only three months.

The no-confidence motion brought by an alliance of left-wing parties under New Popular Front was supported by MPs from Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, far-right, National Rally. A total of 331 lawmakers — a clear majority — voted to bring down the government. The defeat of Barnier led coalition was a personal defeat of President Emanuel Macron who defied the mandate of the latest national elections by not inviting the largest group in the new National assembly the NFP.

In the July 2024 elections, out of the total of 577 seats in the national assembly, the left coalition NPF got 182 seats, followed by President Macron’s coalition Ensemble Alliance 163 seats and the far right National Rally (RN) led by Marie Le Pen 143 seats.. The other right parties got 68 seats, the other left 11 and fringe parties got ten seats.. Earlier in the run off to the national elections in July, President Macron instructed his supporters to have an understanding with the Left in many seats to defeat unitedly the far right candidates. This was done with the stated objective that the far right will not be allowed to take over power in France. This worked well leading to the putting of the surging far right to the third place in the newly elected national assembly.

But soon after the elections, President Macron took an ideologically opposite l turn. Instead of opting for an anti-right coalition led by NFP and supported by his Ensemble alliance to run the new government, he explored the possibility of a non-Left coalition ignoring the people’s mandate given in the national elections in July 2024.Macron invited the Conservative leader veteran Michel Barnier to form the government with the outside support of the far right RN. From day one of the Barnier government, it was a prisoner in the hands of Marie Le Pen. It was known that the firebrand neo fascist will topple the government at her suitable political timing. She took the plunge on the budget issue and supported the Left sponsored no confidence motion on Wednesday night in the national assembly.

The Left coalition NFP has been taking a position against Barnier government from the beginning. They have been alleging that French president Macron has surrendered to far right and is only helping Marie Le Pen through his actions. President Macron has to decide about the next course of action. He has to work for the formation of a new government or he can allow the present Barnier government as the care taker government till the next general elections which can take place only in July 2025, one year after the last elections.

The Left wants immediate resignation of Macron and holding of early Presidential elections. But Macron has refused to resign. He will stay till the middle of 2027 when the next presidential election is due. But more important is that the 2025 budget has to be framed and it has to be passed in the national assembly. The Left is very much against the austerity budget as proposed by President while the far right is against imposition of new taxes on the people.

Barnier’s key task, which proved his downfall, was to vote through a budget for 2025 in which he said he would begin to tackle France’s deficit with €60bn in tax increases and spending cuts. But after weeks of standoff over the budget, Barnier on Monday pushed through a social security financing bill, using article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows a government to force through legislation without a vote in parliament. This sparked a no-confidence motion brought by the left alliance, and another brought by the far right leading to the fall of his government on Wednesday night.

President Macron this time faces a peculiar situation. His government can not pass the 2025 budget without the support of either the Left coalition or the far right. The Left supports taxes on rich and removal of austerity measures on the common people, while the far right is opposed to fresh taxes. Le Pen wants the government to act just on the lines of her mentor Donald Trump.

Le Pen wrote on social media that, by following the “catastrophic continuity of Emmanuel Macron”, Barnier, who led a coalition dominated by the right and centre, “could only fail”. She said she was “protecting and defending” her party’s 11 million voters, who she said were deeply concerned about the cost of living.

For President Macron, the problem is that if the national assembly does not pass its 2025 budget by December 20, the government can propose emergency legislation to take care of the spending till the new government takes over after July 2025. But where is the guarantee that the new government will not be facing the same problem as it is faced with now?

Le Pen has a roadmap. She thinks that the present political crisis has helped her in improving her political base at the cost of the President Macron’s party. The far right wants to get a good part of the eroding popular base of Macron and then she will be facing the next presidential elections. According to her analysis, the Left and Macron can not work together so a new alternative without far right support is not possible.

But the political observers say that this is the right time for President Macron to allow the NFP to form the new government with the support from his Ensemble Alliance. That is the only option now to have a stable pro-people government. Otherwise, the continuing crisis will only help the far right Le Pen in progressing further in her goal of achieving power in France. (IPA Service)

The article President Macron’s Appeasement Of Far Right Has Led To Latest Political Crisis In France appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

The sweeping victory of the Trinamool Congress candidates in the by polls held to the six assembly constituencies in Bengal on November 20, has surpassed even the wildest expectations of the TMC leadership. Out of the six seats, one Madarihat seat was with the BJP while the other five seats were with the TMC in the 2021 assembly elections. In the by polls, the results of which were announced on November 23, the TMC not only retained its five seats with much bigger margins but also defeated the BJP candidate by more than 30,000 votes, thereby securing all the six seats..In 2021 polls, the BJP won Madarihat seat by trouncing TMC by 29,000 votes.

The polling took place in the wake of the tragic incident at the R.G Kar College relating the rape and murder of a lady medical doctor which led to an unprecedented upsurge of emotions of the doctors and the common people demanding justice for the victim. This upsurge took the form of a widespread movement in which the left parties, especially the CPI(M) took leafing part. The movement which began from August 9 continued till October 21, the day the doctors withdrew their hunger strike following talks with the senior officials of the West Bengal government.

The opposition parties, especially the Left had expectations that this upsurge which targeted the Trinamool government’s corruption under Mamata Banerjee who also is minister in charge of health, will have impact on the electoral mood of the people in the six constituencies in favour of the Left, but nothing such happened..Instead, the voters exercised their mandate with vengeance in favour of the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee.

This is evident from the fact that the Left candidates security deposits were not only forfeited, the voting figures were also much less compared to the 2021 assembly elections. The CPI(M), the leader of the Left Front contested in only one seat and in its two other contested seats of 2021, the party allowed the ISF in Haroa and CPI(ML) Liberation in Naihati. The party faced its worst in Taldanga seat where it contested. Its vote share was below 4 per cent. The irony is that only the ISF candidate at Haroa could save his security deposit. The Left as a whole has been put into electoral wilderness.

As regards the BJP, the state party leadership has no excuse to give. All its campaign against TMC has failed to produce any result, though excepting one, the BJP remains the second party after TMC in terms of voting figures. But that second is too distant. With this loss of Madarihat, the BJP’s strength in the state assembly has gone down to around 69 from the original level of 77 which it got after2021 assembly polls. The BJP has no new programme to offer in Bengal excepting talking of Modi’s guarantee and gloating over the latest win in Maharashtra assembly elections. The next assembly election in Bengal is due in April/May 2026. BJP is clueless, it has no roadmap to fight the aggressive TMC in 2026 polls.

As regards the CPI(M) which still has some semblance of organisation left among the Left parties, the situation is worsening every year. The voting percentage is going down and there is no prospect of any turnaround which the leadership is talking. The state CPI(M) conference on the eve of the Party Congress is due in February 2025. There are plans to bring more younger people in the party but so far, the results are discouraging. Some of the CPI(M) youth members who have joined in the recent years are city centred and focus more on their fight against TMC through Social Media rather than taking part in the movement.

The party has been delinked from the minority masses as also the women and subalterns which was the primary base of the party in the first two decades after the Left Front came to power in 1977. The party has big modern party offices throughout the state but very few whole timers.. There is no honest attempt to assess why there is no incumbency despite corruption rampant among the TMC workers and the marginalised people including labour are still sticking to Mamata Banerjee. The state leadership of the party is directionless.

The latest sweep of Trinamool Congress shows that the TMC is the only party among the INDIA bloc partners which has been consistently defeating BJP in all the elections in the recent years. In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party secured 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh and emerged as the major force electorally against the BJP after the Congress in Lok Sabha.. SP also lost two seating seat this time in the latest by polls. But TMC’s record is unblemished since 2021 assembly elections.

Mamata has thus emerged stronger among the INDIA Bloc partners as a big fighter against the BJP. It is quite possible that the Congress high command will coordinate more with TMC in the coming months, and there can be an alliance of the Congress and the TMC for the 2026 assembly elections. Congress has some influence in the four districts of North Bengal. TMC and the Congress jointly are in a position of reducing BJP’s assembly seats in North Bengal in 2026 polls. North Bengal is the stronghold of BJP in the state.

The positive side of the TMC leadership is that the top leaders especially Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee identify the weaknesses after any reverses and take corrective action. There is a pro-active machinery at the organisational level which is aided by the consultant I-PACK. Already, the party has started the basic work for identifying candidates for the 2026 assembly elections and which programmes should get more focus in the party campaign on the basis of the appraisal from the grassroots level. This approach has helped the TMC to be far ahead of the other opposition parties like the BJP and the CPI(M) in electoral preparedness.

The state CPI(M) is finally looking for recruiting consultants from outside to help the party design strategy for 2026 assembly polls. The CPI(M) as also the Left as a whole have no party face who can come anywhere near the acceptability of Mamata Banerjee to the vast sections of the people. The party has to be prepared for a long haul with a new narrative to draw the attention of the common people.

Bengal has a left tradition. Even in Trinamool, there are many people with left past and still clinging to left perspective. If the coming February conference of the CPI(M) can draw up a viable road map based on objective assessment of the situation, that should at least help the CPI(M) to improve its position in 2026 assembly polls from zero to a few seats. The CPI(M) and the Left should aim to displace the BJP as the main opposition party in the state on a medium term. That may not happen in 2026 polls, but certainly, the Left can look for a turnaround in 2029 Lok Sabha polls and 2031 assembly polls, if proper follow up actions are taken. (IPA Service)

The article Trinamool’s Sweeping Victory In Six Bypolls Has Given A Big Boost To Mamata’s Standing In INDIA Bloc appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

The junior doctors’ movement in West Bengal partially ended on its 41st day on September 20 Friday. The striking doctors joined their duties on September 21 in emergency services only in the state government run medical colleges and hospitals still keeping the OPD work and surgical operations out of their duty profile. The outcome of the protracted negotiations on the five point agenda submitted by the Junior Doctors Front, to the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee have mostly been positive but the doctors body has indicated full joining only after the directives by the state health department are implemented on ground. It is apparent that the agitating doctors are waiting for the next hearing in the Supreme Court on the RG Kar medico’s rape murder issue scheduled on September 27.

The movement of the doctors has received unprecedented support from the common citizens of Kolkata, especially women and in the last six weeks since the gruesome rape and murder of the 31 year old doctor in her work room in the hospital after midnight of August 8, thousands of women including the young stars of the film, television and other entertainment sectors, have joined the movement with candlelight processions as also observing two nights as “Reclaim The Night”, declaring that the women in Kolkata will enjoy freedom of movement both in day and night.

Right now, the Supreme Court is seized of the issue. The next hearing is scheduled on September 27. The CBI will be updating its latest report on investigations and West Bengal government will also be submitting its status report. At the last hearing on September 17, Supreme Court directed the West Bengal government to take the needed steps for ensuring security in the hospitals within three days.. No fresh directive was given to the doctors for joining their duties immediately despite pleas made by the state government.

What is the likely impact of the junior doctors agitation and the civil society upsurge in their support on the volatile political situation in the state? Is there any real threat to the Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress government after 13 years of its rule? How the main opposition party BJP is going to get political mileage from the outburst of anger against the Trinamool as a ruling party? Will the CPI(M) with no presence in state assembly as also in Lok Sabha from the state remerge in the state politics as an alternative to TMC along with the BJP? These are the questions that are being discussed among the people in the state in the wake of the civil society upsurge with the participation of thousands of women and common people.

Let us start with a few signals from the doctors movement. For the first time in her 13 years rule since 2011 assembly elections, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was seen to be bowing down to the continuing pressure of the doctors front one by one and finally acceding to all demands. The doctors were setting the agenda one after another. She was only reacting. During protracted negotiations, the doctors were always on front foot , CM and his officials were on backfoot. Even now, the doctors after joining emergency services have acquired the right to decide their SOP. It will be a virtual parallel administration in the hospitals for next few days till the junior doctors front announces their full participation in normal duties.

Mamata Banerjee had to blink to the protracted pressure from the doctors because their demands were genuine. The pro-TMC doctors lobby has been controlling the state run hospitals and many of them resorted to corrupt practices. Many more exposures may come up after thorough investigations by the CBI. Mamata is worried at the coming Supreme Court proceedings. It was not politically prudent for her to allow the agitation further without considering their demands.

At political level, the state government had information that both the BJP and the CPI(M) have been egging the doctors front through their supporters to prolong the agitation till pujas and the police department was worried that any bloody clash due to the agitation by the opposition, will further intensify the movement giving it wider dimension. Mamata rightfully wanted to avert that possibility. The BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari was reported to have said only a few dead bodies would be needed to oust Mamata from the government. Mamata asked the police to show maximum restraint defying all provocations. That finally helped.

The intensity of the doctors movement has eased with partial withdrawal of cease work. The opposition parties may still continue the agitation against the TMC government demanding fair trial from the CBI but the focus has shifted to the central agency CBI. from the Mamata government. The Puja festival fever has already started and generally, little political activities take place in Bengal during the festival period till Diwali. This year it is on October 31. Both the BJP and the CPI(M) will have to dilute their programmes now as the Puja days approach in the first part of October.

The political situation in the state has slightly eased but it is still tense and fluid. The doctors body will decide the next course of action. If after September 27 hearing of the Supreme Court, and the effective implementation of the state government directives, the doctors resume normal services, that will take the steam out of the opposition agitation against the Mamata government now.

But still what is the political mileage of the opposition parties from the unprecedented civil society upsurge in favour of the agitation of the doctors and the speedy justice for the crime against the R G Kar doctor? As regards the BJP, it is the only opposition party in the state assembly with 70 plus seats out of the total of 294. The party has not gained much. In fact, the party leaders were cold shouldered by the striking doctors and the party leaders also organised their own dharnas not attended by many people.. The party leaders are in fact disappointed though they have drawn up plans to continue their own agitation at district level.

As regards the CPI(M), the party could activate its young cadres and make some impact through the movement. The party took part in the civil society upsurge and helped the organisers in doing planning. But essentially, both the doctors movement and the civil society movement organisers steered clear of both the BJP and the CPI(M).. The Congress virtually had no role though the party organised dharnas at a few places. In sum, among the opposition parties, the CPI(M) only got some small political mileage from the civil society. Many of its old workers who were inactive were seen participating after a long time.. But there are doubts to what extent, the CPI(M) can capitalize even this small gain into electoral terms as the party organization is crippled in the districts.

In November, ten by polls will be held in Bengal to the state assembly. That is the immediate forum for the test of the strength of the contesting parties in elections.. All these constituencies are in rural and semi urban areas. The BJP will try its best to capitalise on the TMC discomfiture on R G Kar issue in the by polls.TMC will also mobilise its resources to ensure that the party wins all ten assembly seats defeating the BJP

In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 12 seats as against 29 won by the TMC. The Congress got one while the CPI(M) got none like 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This time, also, the CPI(M) led Left Front will be fielding candidates either on its own or in alliance with the Congress. In the by polls to four state assemblies held a month after the Lok Sabha polls, TMC got all seats with higher percentage of votes defeating BJP in all the seats. Both the CPI(M) and the Congress forfeited their deposits. In the by polls, the CPI(M)’s vote share was around 5 per cent. It was 5.67 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The main feature of the civil society movement was the participation of the educated middle class of Kolkata including upper class women and students. The feeling was genuine. But there was little or no participation of the women of underprivileged class or the workers including the daily wagers. These lower strata of the population forms the base of Mamata Banerjee and they are much more in number. As long as this section sticks to their didi whom they consider as their own, all CPI(M) and BJP optics will be of no use in electoral terms. But still, the November by polls will be good indicator to show whether there has been even a small crack in the support base of Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee. After November by polls, no other elections are scheduled till the next assembly polls in April/May 2026. (IPA Service)

The article Junior Doctors Strike And Unprecedented Civil Society Upsurge In Bengal appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

Massive global protests in the last four days of September in all the major cities of the world including New York, Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and finally Tel Aviv against Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rigid attitude to the ceasefire proposal to end the Gaza war, have led to some positive reaction among the leaders of the western nations

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has just announced his decision to block 30 arms export licences for weapons due to go to Israel. The decision is a small step as the blocking affects only 10 per cent of the licences but still it is a good beginning and this has been possible due to the continuous pressure put by the British peace movement and the left wing of the ruling Labour Party who have been active all through in protesting against the arms assistance being given by the British government to Israel.

Simultaneously, President Joe Biden has publicly admonished his friend Netanyahu by saying that the Israeli Prime Minister should give up his rigid position on ceasefire proposal to end Gaza war. Israeli military leaders have immediately reacted by saying why Biden is not saying the same to Hamas leaders?. But the fact is that US secretary of state Antony Blinken has already communicated to the Hamas leadership through his interlocutors that this is the last chance and Hamas should see to it that this proposal is approved.

President Biden’s latest hard stance to the Israeli Prime Minister is also due to the impact of massive anti war demonstrations in major US cities and the strong position taken by the leftwing Democratic congress members on the US position on Israel. The Democratic Party is also feeling that the votes of the pro-Palestine elements of the US voters will be needed for its candidate Kamala Harris to win against Donald Trump. With only two months away from Presidential elections, President Biden is also making efforts to ensure the agreement on a ceasefire proposal as a trophy for the Democratic Party before the November 5 elections. That is why, there is some hardening of stance to Israel.

As regards British Labour Party PM Starmer, Labour is feeling the heat from the streets — and the polling booths. The sustained mass movement of solidarity with the Palestinian people unavoidably vented much of its anger at Starmer’s full-throated endorsement of Israel’s genocidal conduct earlier…And that impacted powerfully in the general election. Labour lost votes over the issue, particularly among Muslim communities which have largely supported the party in the past. It lost four seats and came close to losing several more as a consequence. Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are two cabinet members who will be worried about their political careers if the government continues to support Netanyahu.

In the recent days, Starmer has finetuned his earlier position. The government has restored funding to refugee agency UNRWA. The government also dropped objections to the International Criminal Court seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant, on legalistic rather than political grounds. But the arms supplies are continuing. The anti war movement in Britain is now demanding total stoppage of arms supply to Israel and compelling Israel to agree to the ceasefire proposal. for working on a political solution.

The pressure on the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was most severe on Sunday and Monday as huge demonstrations were held by Israeli citizens in Tel Aviv and other cities..Called by Arnon Bar-David, chairman of Histradut—the General Federation of Labour, Israel’s main trade union alliance—the strike was aimed at protesting against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to conclude a ceasefire in his war on Gaza and his government’s failure to secure the release of hostages still held by Hamas.

Monday’s strike paralyzed the country’s main airport and shut down schools, ports, airlines, banks, the electric company, the post office, many government departments, bus companies, several municipal services, trains, and universities.

The strike came on the heels of mass protests on Sunday which saw as many as 500,000 Israelis pour into the streets of every major city and town to express grief and anger after six hostages were found dead in Gaza.

Information released by the Israeli National Forensic Institute revealed that its examination of the bodies showed the six had been shot at close range 48 to 72 hours before their discovery. At least three of them were supposedly scheduled for release as part of the first phase of a ceasefire deal currently being negotiated.

UN sources say that the Israeli government’s war has turned Gaza to ruins since October and killed at least 40,819 Palestinians and wounded 94,291. Both these numbers are believed to be major undercounts, though, due to the large number of people still missing beneath the rubble or whose remains have been destroyed by the Israeli military..The peaceniks in Israel are determined that they will continue their movement till the ceasefire deal is concluded. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

President of Venezuela Nicholas Maduro won the Presidential elections held on July 28 by defeating the national opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. As per the election council announcement, Maduro got 51.2 per cent of the votes polled as against 44.2 per cent received by Gonzalez. The council said that with about 80 per cent of the vote counted, Maduro had secured more than five million compared to 4.4 million in favour of the opposition candidate.

The incumbent President Maduro took over the presidency in 2013 after the death of the former President Hugo Chavez who ruled the oil rich South American country from 1999 to 2013 till his death as the leader of the socialist coalition. Maduro who won the 2018 Presidential elections, will have a term of six years after this 2024 win.

After the announcement made by the electoral council, President Maduro told his cheering supporters that he would defend the people, the constitution and the laws of the country, Maduro dedicated his win to his mentor, the late president Hugo Chávez, who anointed Maduro as his successor shortly before his premature death in 2013. “Long live Chávez. Chávez is alive!” Maduro shouted.

The result was celebrated by Maduro allies including the Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez who hailed a “historic victory” and called it a triumph of “the dignity and courage of the Venezuelan people”. “The people spoke and the revolution won,” he tweeted.

Bolivia’s leftwing leader, Luis Arce, also celebrated the result of an election that was held on what would have been Chávez’s 70th birthday. “What a great way to remember the Comandante Hugo Chávez,” Arce tweeted. However, some other Latin American nations decided to wait till the detailed poll results were announced.. Chile’s president Gabriel Boric said that Chile would not recognize any result that had not been verified. Peru’s foreign minister rejected the results.

The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado – who had thrown her weight behind González’s campaign after being banned from running herself – rejected the result, claiming the opposition had won in every single state. The far right leader said that Gonzalez has won in every state and he is the natural President elect. An ardent supporter of Donald Trump, Machado copied her mentor by saying that the election has been stolen by President Maduro.

The US vice-president Kamala Harris tweeted: “The United States stands with the people of Venezuela who expressed their voice in today’s historic presidential election. The will of the Venezuelan people must be respected.” The United States has “serious concerns” the Venezuelan election result declaring President Maduro the winner is not accurate, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says. “We have serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” Blinken said while in Japan. Earlier he said the US wanted votes in Venezuela’s presidential election to be counted “fairly and transparently”.

President Maduro, 61 expressed his determination to fight the opposition propaganda on the results and told his supporters to be vigilant and foil any attempt by the opposition to defy the verdict of the people given on Sunday’s elections. He mentioned of the international observers who have commended the fair and peaceful polling in the elections.

After calling the election, the head of the National Electoral Council urged Venezuelans to respect the results, adding he has requested an investigation into alleged “acts of terrorism” during the vote. “We would like to report that we requested the attorney general to open an investigation into the terrorist acts perpetrated against our vote counting and voting system and against electoral officials,” said Elvis Amoroso. “We issued a call to each Venezuelan to respect the law of the constitution and the mandate of the people as expressed at the polling station,” he added.

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is a country in northern South America that borders the Caribbean Sea in north and the North Atlantic Ocean in east. Neighbouring countries are Colombia in west and south west, Brazil in south and Guyana in east. The country shares also overlapping maritime borders with Barbados, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Puerto Rico.

With an area of 912,000 km² Venezuela is slightly more than 2.5 times the size of Germany or slightly more than twice the size of the U.S. state of California. Venezuela has a population of 31.1 million inhabitants (in 2015) of whom 6 million live in the capital and largest city Caracas. The country’s population is concentrated along the Caribbean coast, only 5% of all Venezuelans live south of the course of Orinoco river. Official language is Spanish. India has a solid economic relations with the Venezuela oil industry as crude oil importer. (IPA Service)

The article Nicholas Maduro Wins Venezuelan Presidency Again In A Hotly Contested Election appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

The new coalition government of South Africa formed last month after the national elections on May 29 is facing a major crisis as the leading party African National Congress (ANC) has been taken to court by its partner Democratic Alliance (DA) on the issue of a speech delivered by the President Cyril Ramaphosa during the election campaign.

The DA which was formed as a coalition of anti-ANC parties before the national elections on May 29 joined the present coalition government following discussions with the ANC, to form a stable government. The two combinations have policy differences but the election results compelled them to join hands since no other combination was found possible. The ANC which ruled South Africa since 1994’s first election, lost its majority in the latest elections leading to the need for taking a partner for forming a stable government.

The curious fact is that the court papers were submitted to the Electoral Court by the DA in May this year before it entered into a coalition with the ANC, but it decided to still go ahead with the case defying all requests from its leading partner ANC not to pursue the case and create problems for the coalition government.

The DA asked the court to deduct 1 per cent of the vote received by the ANC in the May 29 national election and fine. President Ramaphosa, the ANC leader, the equivalent of £8,500 and his party £4,220, over what it argues was a presidential address that was used for election campaigning and amounted to an abuse of office. The ANC termed the charges as’ frivolous and unwarrranted’

Mr Ramaphosa gave the speech three days before the election during which he highlighted what he said were ANC successes during its 30-year in government. The DA said that the election rules in South Africa did not allow the President to campaign for the ANC. The ANC is prepared to fight the legal battle but the development signals the cracks in the functioning of the newly formed coalition government and the DA’s determined move to embarrass its leading coalition partner.

For ANC regime led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the national poll results gave a big shock showing how the voting level of the ANC had declined to only 40 per cent as against 57.4 per cent received by the ANC in 2019 general elections. As per South African constitution, any party getting below the 50 per cent level, will lose the right to form a government of its own and be ready for a coalition with other minority partners. President will be finally elected on that basis. So the continuation of the president Ramaphosa depended on the agreement reached between the ANC and its partners to obtain more than 50 per cent of the votes in the newly elected assembly.

The ANC started its negotiations with all major parties after the results were out. More than 50 parties took part in the election, and eight had significant shares of the vote. At least 26 of them, including the MK Party led by former President Jacob Zuma, have lodged objections and complaints with the electoral body alleging voting irregularities, which it has promised to address.

The DA won the second most votes with 21.8%, and the two parties ANS and DA held a majority together, a total of 61.8 per cent to enable them to govern. The ANC won 159 seats in the 400-seat Parliament, down from the 230 it won in the last election. The DA increased slightly to 87 seats.

As per the constitution, the new Parliament will have to sit for its opening session for electing President within fourteen days after announcing the official results. So that way the Parliament met in the middle of June this year and the coalition partners agreed to retain Ramaphosa as the President. A common programme was also discussed. DA favours more the growth of private business as against government controlled business. There are many issues on which both differed but the two parties agreed to run the coalition government on the basis of understanding. That trust is lacking now and that is affecting the governance. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The national council of the Communist Party of India (CPI) had a deeper introspection on the performance of the ruling Left Democratic Front in Kerala in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections at its three day session in New Delhi from July 11 to 14. The party went into the root causes of the decline in the LDF votes in 2024 polls compared to the 2021 state assembly elections and on the basis of that decided to make course corrections so that the party along with its LDF partners are more prepared to face the Congress led UDF and the BJP in the state assembly polls scheduled in 2026.

The LDF got only one Lok Sabha seat out of the total of 20 in Kerala in the 2024 polls. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls also, the LDF got also only one seat but in 2024 polls, the worrying factor was that the LDF lost votes and the BJP for the first time got one Lok Sabha seat from Thrissur defeating the well known CPI candidate. The CPI contested four seats in Kerala and lost all four. The CPI leadership took note of the reviews made by the CPI(M) leadership also over its Kerala performance and the admission by the CPI(M) that there was disconnect between the LDF government and the people. Apart, the CPI(M) leaders agreed that there were charges of corruption against many lower level leaders and this adversely affected the image of the LDF in the recent Lok Sabha polls.

While the focus of the discussions at the NC meeting was on how to improve the Left image in Kerala, it was felt that the CPI(M) as the leading partner of the LDF has to take corrective measures immediately to improve the image of the LDF government as the leading party taking into view that in 2026 assembly polls, the Congress led UDF would be making all efforts to unseat the ruling LDF government. It is imperative that all the partners, especially the CPI and the CPI(M) launch jointly big campaign to take on both the UDF and the BJP in the next two years.

In a statement issued after the meeting, the CPI congratulated the people of India for defeating the design of BJP to change the Constitution by not giving it a majority and making INDIA Bloc main opposition. However, INDIA Bloc could have done better if there would have been a proper seat sharing and mutual accommodation among the parties. In spite of this, INDIA Bloc has emerged as a strong force and expected to strengthen in future and the CPI will strive for it, the statement said.

The CPI expressed fear that aggressive, undemocratic functioning of BJP government will continue. As evident by imposing implementation of three new criminal laws from July 1, 2024 and continuing with all old portfolios with BJP leaders. Misusing all government machinery to harass opposition leaders and suppress dissent, will continue and is expected to increase further, the statement added.

According to the statement, the election result has shown how Left has won only nine seats out of 543 (2 CPI, 4 CPI (M), 2 CPI (ML), 1 RSP). A serious concern has been expressed by all members and tasks to strengthen party and movement have been adopted by National Council. As the party is entering into 100th year of its formation from 26th December 2024. It has been decided to launch various programmes and activities to reactivate the party and the movement.

The CPI views that the BJP lost its one party rule but will continue its politics of hate, polarization neo-liberal policies and corporate agenda with more efforts. In such context, the primary task will be to strengthen cooperation of all secular, democratic and Left forces in defence of secular democratic fabric of the country and the Constitution. The CPI said that the party will continue to support the INDIA bloc inside and outside Parliament to take on the BJP and the NDA.

While The CPI continues to be with INDIA Bloc, which is a broad platform of liberal bourgeois and regional parties which came together to defeat BJP, one of the important tasks will be to take efforts to strengthen the unity of the Communist and broader Left. So the national council statement says that from now on, political and organizational preparations have to be taken for the coming state assembly elections to be held in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir.

In a resolution adopted at the NC meeting, the CPI, requested the Finance Minister of Modi.3 government to increase the health budget to at least 3% of the GDP in the upcoming budget. India’s current public health expenditure is merely 1.35% of its GDP, which is among the lowest in the world. It has led to high out of pocket expenditure for a vast population.

According to a March 2022 World Health Organization (WHO) report, more than 17% of Indian households experience catastrophic health expenditures each year, which can push people into poverty. Catastrophic health spending is defined as out-of-pocket (OOP) payments that exceed a certain percentage of a household’s resources for healthcare. The report estimates that high OOP health expenditures impoverish around 55 million Indians annually.

India faces significant healthcare challenges, including a high burden of infectious diseases, a growing non-communicable disease epidemic, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure. The on-going pandemic has further exposed the vulnerabilities of our healthcare system The CPI said that this hike of the health budget to 3 per cent of the GDP in the 2024-25 budget should be a must. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

As expected, the Labour Party won a resounding victory in the general elections in Britain held on July 4 by capturing more than 410 seats out of the total of 650 seats, thereby ousting the Conservative Party from power after its fourteen years rule. The Tories got only 119 seats. Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party is taking over as the new Prime Minister replacing Rishi Sunak who has already resigned.

The Labour Party under Starmer has been taking a centrist position on a number of issues affecting the working class in Britain since the earlier leader leftwing Jeremy Corbyn was ousted by Starmer from the leadership. The inner party tussle within the Labour Party between the Corbynites and Starmer group intensified in the last two years leading to the denial of candidacy to many left wingers including Jeremy Corbyn in the July 4 polls. However, Corbyn fought as an independent and won from his constituency despite all the efforts of Starmer group to defeat him.

The margin of Labour victory is broadly in line with Tony Blair’s 1997 win, and not as bad for the Tories as some opinion polls had predicted in the last ten days. Labour will have a highly comfortable Commons majority in the new term. The Labour got the full advantage of the continuous factional wars in the Conservative Party and the emergence of Reform Party by Nigel Farage which took away around 15 per cent vote base of the Tories. The polling details show that the Liberal Democrats with 91 seats also eroded the traditional electoral base of the Tories in a few constituencies. The outgoing PM Rishi Sunak was reconciled to his party’s defeat but he has retained his own seat. Now the issue is whether he retains his status as the leader of the Conservative Party in the new House

Keir Starmer has inherited a broken Britain, with millions struggling to pay the bills. To fix it, the new Labour government must turn its back on austerity and anti-democratic attitude to the genuine demands of the workers. British people are angry as the standard of common services for a decent livelihood has gone down. Despite Sunak’s latest efforts to add new jobs in the economy, the unemployment problem is acute. The new Labour Government has to do a lot for the improvement of the health facilities focusing on giving more funds to the National Health Service.

Sir Keir Starmer can take credit for bringing Labour to the office in 2024 elections just as Tony Blair did it in 1997. He has good opportunity to start with taking the corrective measures to plug the loopholes in some areas of the economy. With Jeremy Corbyn and the left wingers out of the Labour Party, the British businessmen as also the other multinationals remain well disposed towards the Starmer Government. Nobody expects the new Labour Government to bring out fundamental changes, neither in broad economic policy nor in foreign policy, but still the Labour victory is a positive development in the fight of the European people against far right ascendency after their big victory in European Parliament.

France is going to its crucial second round elections on July 7. The anti far right forces are showing signs of uniting against the dominant far right party RN of Marine Le Pen. Even the French football star Kylien Mbappe has declared that’ We can not allow our country to fall into the hands of Li Pen’. There is a growing awareness that fascism is knocking at the door and it should be disallowed by joint efforts. Labour victory just two days before French elections gives the message that the right and far right can be defeated if the citizens join hands. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

As expected, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in the national elections in South Africa held on May 29 paving the way for the formation of a coalition government as the leading partner after its uninterrupted rule for thirty years since the holding of first elections in 1994 after the abolition of apartheid.

For ANC regime led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the poll results gave a big shock showing how the voting level of the ANC had declined to only 40 per cent as against 57.4 per cent received by the ANC in 2019 general elections. As per South African constitution, any party getting below the 50 per cent level, will lose the right to form a government of its own and be ready for a coalition with other minority partners. President will be finally elected on that basis. So the continuation of the current president Ramaphosa depends on the agreement reached between the ANC and its partners.

President Cyril Ramaphosa was quite objective and composed after the poll results were out on Sunday. He called for South Africa’s political parties to overcome their differences and find “common ground” to form the first national coalition government in its young democracy.

“Our people have spoken,” Ramaphosa said. “Whether we like it or not, they have spoken. We have heard the voices of our people and we must respect their choices and their wishes. … The people of South Africa expect their leaders to work together to meet their needs. This is a time for all

The ANC said that it was starting its negotiations with all major parties. More than 50 parties took part in the election, and at least eight had significant shares of the vote. At least 26 of them, including the MK Party led by former President Jacob Zuma, have lodged objections and complaints with the electoral body alleging voting irregularities, which it has promised to address.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula said it was open to all negotiations, even with the main opposition Democratic Alliance, which has led the chorus of criticism of the ANC for years but is viewed by many analysts as the most stable coalition option for South Africa.

The DA won the second most votes with 21.8%, and the two parties would hold a majority together and be able to govern. DA leader John Steenhuisen said his party was also initiating talks with parties. The ANC won 159 seats in the 400-seat Parliament, down from the 230 it won in the last election. The DA increased slightly to 87 seats..

As per the constitution, the new Parliament will have to sit for its opening session for electing President within fourteen days after announcing the official results. So that way the Parliament will have to meet by June 16 and the ANC has to finalise its negotiations with the other parties to have a coalition government. The ANC is firm that the willing parties will have to agree on the continuation of Ramaphosa and there will be no compromise on the presidential nominee.

Amid many coalition options, the ANC could also join with MK and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, although they have been cast as partners that would make investors uneasy. Both have pledged to nationalize parts of South Africa’s economy, including its gold and platinum mines, among the world’s biggest producers..At the moment, ANC leadership is not ready to agree to this far left agenda since the economy needs massive investments.

The DA has long said it will not work with the EFF and MK, calling them a “doomsday coalition” for South Africa. Steenhuisen, the party’s leader, repeated that stance Sunday in a speech on national television but said his party was starting talks with others and would approach them “with cool heads and open minds.”

As of now, political observers feel that there is a possibility of ANC-DA coalition which will ensure 61.8 per cent of the votes for a stable government. Jacob Zuma’s party has got 8 per cent but Zuma is disliked by ANC and his condition is Ramaphosa will be displaced. This can not be agreed to by the ANC leadership. ANC can not take risk of aligning with the far left as the group’s policies are too anti-investors and that does not suit the President’s present policy of wooing investors for growth in economy and generation of jobs

The African National Congress (ANC) has been ruling the nation since 1994 when Nelson Mandela became the president as the head of the ANC which led the liberation struggle against the British rulers. The ANC from the beginning was a platform of freedom fighters of different shades of political persuasion. South African Communist Party (SACP) which took a prominent part in the anti-apartheid struggle, has been a part of the ruling ANC all along and its leaders held positions of ministers in the government of ANC. The SACP members, however are in the government as ANC members and they fought elections also on ANC ballot.. Another participant in the triple alliance is the trade union body COSATU.

SACP has been fighting inside the ANC government for the implementation of its programme. Some demands were approved, some were not, but SACP members remained loyal to the ANC regime. However, the relationship took a bitter turn during the presidentship of Jacob Zuma who was charged for corruption. He was later removed and Mr. Ramaphosa took over as the president replacing him. The new president has better ties with the SACP.

Under president Ramaphosa’s leadership, South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice for war crimes. The ICJ mentioned of Israeli crimes as genocide and asked the Israeli government to take immediate action to end its war crimes. Though Israel and other western nations, are yet to implement the ICJ directive, South Africa’s stature has gone up among the developing nations. South Africa is a leading member of the BRICS group of which India is also a prominent member.

SACP leadership discussed the possibility of leaving the ANC and functioning independently outside the ANC during Zuma’s presidency but the leadership waited taking into account the looming threat from the opposition Democratic Alliance. Now with Mr. Ramaphosa as president, the SACP, after long debate on the issue opted to remain as a part of the ANC and fought the general elections jointly.

Defying the far left critics of the Party, the SACP leadership said that the time was still not ripe for the second stage and it was politically sensible to remain as a part of the ANC to fight in the general elections jointly to ensure the victory of the ANC once again. The South African communists fought on ANC symbol. It is yet to be know the number of communists elected to Parliament on ANC symbol out of the total seats of 159 received by the ANC. SACP will have a say in the choosing of partners by the ANC leadership. The next few days are crucial in the political life of South Africa, the most politically sensitive country in the continent with62 million population and 29 million registered voters out of whom 77 per cent belong to youth. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

For Latin American Left as also the Global Left, there seems to be a welcome news waiting on June 2 as nearly 100 million voters of Mexico including a record number of first timers will be polling to elect a new President as also many other positions including 628 member Parliament. All indications suggest that the ruling Left wing coalition MORENA will win the polls vindicating the acceptability of the incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Abrador’s (better known as AMLO) popular programme for transformation.

AMLO took over presidency in 2018 and ruled for six years retaining high popularity. He is not contesting this 2024 elections since the Mexican constitution permits only one Presidential term.. His party’s nominee is Claudia Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City Mayor. She will be fighting against the main opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, a successful tech entrepreneur and former senator supported by an alliance of the right wing parties. The third candidate is Jorge Alvarez Maynez, the candidate for the citizens movement. Latest opinion polls have put the MORENA’s Sheinbaum more than 20 points ahead of the main opposition candidate Galvez.

While the next president will benefit from the economic tailwinds of nearshoring (outsourcing business operations to nearby countries rather than far off ones), Sheinbaum faces a host of domestic challenges, including energy and water shortages, fiscal deficits, violence and the spread of organized crime, and the movement of millions of migrants into and through Mexico.

On the positive side, the next president inherits a growing economy, led by trade with the United States. In 2023, Mexico became the United States’s largest trade partner, with bilateral exchanges nearing $900 billion. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also rose, reaching $36 billion. Much of it was funnelled into manufacturing and companies looking to place production outside of China to more easily access U.S. markets. Still, these inflows fell short compared to other emerging markets and Mexico’s own historic highs a decade ago. A top-fifteen global economy, Mexico received less than 3 percent of global FDI last year.

Limited energy and water availability present significant barriers to a nearshoring boom and Mexico’s industrial takeoff. A 2023 report from investment banking company Morgan Stanley estimated that Mexico needs to invest some $40 billion in power generation and distribution over the next presidential term to keep up with demand. To attract global manufacturing, much of this new electricity needs to be green. However, the current government’s policies have stymied private-sector energy investment and prioritized fossil-fuel electricity generation over the use of renewables. Eleven states and the capital, Mexico City, face significant water shortages due in large part to decrepit infrastructure.

The next president faces heightened insecurity and weakened rule of law. Over the past six years, Mexico has not gotten safer. The murder rate remains high and extortion rates have risen some 50 percent. Organized crime has spread geographically and expanded business operations, including protection rackets for avocado and lime farmers, contraband energy producers, and migrant smugglers. Complaints of public corruption are also rising. Meanwhile, the militarization of security has meant cuts to state and local law enforcement budgets, reducing the capability of civilian police.

Latin American experts say that the new President will also need to grapple with the expanded role of Mexico’s military. Current President AMLO put troops in charge of customs, allowing them to oversee ports, airports, and the management of many of the government’s largest infrastructure projects. This has limited transparency and accountability for major public works while leaving the military more vulnerable to the corrupt influence of organized crime groups. Opposition parties have been alleging that this system has led to a den of corruption with the participation of both officials and military. There is a big demand from the common citizens and the social media to change the existing system.

During his rule, President AMLO spent a lot on programmes for the common people. The finances currently are not in good shape.. The next president will have less money to grapple with the challenges. . Budget deficits now approach 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—levels amid lagging public investments in roads, rails, airports, and border crossings. And the state-owned energy company Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, remains a financial burden.. AMLO injected over $90 billion in Pemex to keep it afloat, but it still owes more than $100 billion, making it the world’s most indebted oil company. The global credit rating agency Moody’s predicts that business as usual at Pemex will soon cost Mexico’s treasury nearly $18 billion per year. For the new President, the primary task will be to sort out the issues relating to this oil conglomerate which is bleeding the government finances.

MORENA presidential candidate Sheinbaum’s platform also entails greater attention to education, culture, sports, and the arts, including health and social security benefits for artists. It offers an increased focus on preventative and mental health, including a national mental health program that encompasses victims of violence. It promises to tackle Mexico’s chronic water problems, including reforms to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)–era National Water Law that turned hydric resources over to wealthy licensees and corporations Sheinbaum has said that water will be a defining issue of her administration. And building on Sheinbaum’s strengths as a climate engineer, it promises to drive the energy transition — not along the lines of the greenwashing model promoted by energy multinationals but within a framework of strengthened public control over the sector, which has been one of the most significant battles of AMLO’s term

MORENA’s election manifesto has generated widespread enthusiasm among the voters. This has been evident from the response to poll campaigns in both cities and rural areas. The MORENA campaigners are giving assurances about fighting corruption and bringing down criminal activities-the two minus points in their performance. But for the common people, living conditions have improved vastly in the last six years. That is the advantage with which the left wing MORENA is facing general elections on June 2. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The polling to the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in the second phase of elections on April 26 is of crucial significance to the two communist parties CPI(M) and the CPI for their future role in the turbulent post election days of the Indian polity. The fight between the two INDIA bloc partners in the course of the intensive campaign has been full of acrimony as both the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front and the Congress led United Democratic Front were fighting for establishing their political supremacy in the state, but finally, whoever wins will belong to the INDIA bloc. That is the most welcome factor in this state which boasts of a highly literate and politically agile electorate.

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress led UDF swept the polls by getting 19 seats leaving only one to the CPI(M) nominee. Out of the 19 seats, the Congress alone got 15. This 15 constituted the major chunk of its national tally of 52 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2024, the Congress is desperate to not only retain this 15 but also to increase its tally by one by annexing the remaining seat.

The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting from his present constituency Wayanad and the Congress is campaigning focusing that the state is going to have the next Prime Minister. For the Congress both at the state and the central level, it is a do or die scenario in Kerala. The high command has mobilised huge financial resources for this state at the cost of some other state parties which are starved of funds.

For the Left, especially the CPI(M), the task is no less challenging compared to the Congress, if not more. The CPI(M) contested 16 seats in 2019 elections but just got one with a low margin. The CPI fought in four constituencies and got none. This was the dismal result of the Left despite the LDF winning the 2016 state assembly elections and the Left getting some advantage of being the ruling party in 2019 polling time. In 2024, as the polling takes place on Friday, the CPI(M) Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is still ruling and he is the main face of the LDF taking on the Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

The CPI(M) is contesting 15 seats this time and the CPI four as last time. The CPI(M) has given one seat to its new ally Kerala Congress (M) taking into account the need for more Christian votes. For the CPI(M), winning more seats from Kerala in 2024 is of paramount importance as the Party is not confident of getting sure seats from any other part of the country excepting Tamil Nadu where it can expect to retain the two seats.. The CPI(M) has three seats in the present Lok Sabha its lowest since its formation in 1964. Out of the three, two are from Tamil Nadu as a part of DMK led INDIA front. So, on the basis of its own strength, the CPI(M) can claim to have only one seat in the present Lok Sabha.

At the national level, the CPI(M) is contesting in West Bengal as a part of Left Front-Congress alliance in 23 out of the total of 42 seats in the state. The campaigning trend so far shows that it is very difficult for the CPI(M) to get even a single seat from Bengal this time as a result of the polarisation of voters between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the BJP. In 2019 elections also, the CPI(M) failed to get any seat to Lok Sabha. The ground situation has not changed much, in fact, the vote percentage of CPI(M) went down in the assembly and rural polls in 2021 and 2023 respectively.

As a part of INDIA bloc, the CPI(M) is contesting one seat in Rajasthan, one in Bihar and possibly one in Andhra Pradesh. In Rajasthan’s Sikar seat, the CPI(M) candidate is giving a good fight but it is not certain that he will get through finally. In Tripura, the CPI(M) is contesting in one of two Lok Sabha seats in alliance with the Congress. The BJP has an alliance with the tribals party Tipra Motha. There is little chance of the CPI(M) of getting this seat. That way, excepting two seats in Tamil Nadu, the CPI(M) has the potential of improving its seats from only Kerala. If that does not happen and the Congress sweeps, the CPI(M) will again be landing itself in 2019 position.

For the CPI, the nature of the challenge is the same. In 2019, the CPI got only two Lok Sabha seats, both from Tamil Nadu, courtesy DMK led front. There was no other seat from any state. For the CPI also, the 2019 figure in Lok Sabha was the lowest in CPI’s history. In Kerala, though the Party did not get any seat in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in 2024 the CPI has carried out intensive campaign in all four seats and in two seats, the party is within fighting distance of winning. If luck favours, the CPI can get one seat from Kerala. From Tamil Nadu like last time, the Party can get both the seats as a part of DMK led front.

Apart, the CPI is contesting in Begusarai in Bihar and in two seats from Andhra Pradesh as a part of the INDIA bloc. In Begusarai, the fight is tough but the party workers have campaigned fine. Union Minister Giriraj Singh is the BJP candidate. It is to be seen how finally the voters decide. In Andhra Pradesh, the CPI is fairly strong in one of the seats. If there is total mobilization of the Congress and Left voters, the CPI may get this seat. In Bengal, the CPI is contesting in two seats as a part of the Left Front. There is no question of winning. The Party has to work hard to save the security deposit of the candidates.

In totality, the Left hopes of increasing their representation in the 18thLokSabha depends mainly on Kerala’s 20 seats. Both the CPI(M) and the CPI as a part of LDF can raise the tally to two digits from the present one . At the same time, the Congress may sweep the polls by annexing even the lone seat of the CPI(M). Both possibilities are there. That is why, it is so vital for the Left to do everything to turn the April 26 polling in their favour. If they succeed, that will give a good boost to the CPI and the CPI(M) in post June 4 political situation. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) turned 75 on April 4 this year marking a journey with many twists and turns in both cold war and post-Soviet period. When NATO was formed in 1949, its Cold War apologists claimed that its mission would be to repel “Soviet aggression,” a lie rooted in anti-communism. The real expansionist force in Europe then, as now, was U.S. which initiated NATO as part of its policy of encircling the Soviet Union. NATO’s real aim was to destroy the USSR—an obsession that even included plans for pre-emptive nuclear war.

NATO’s second assignment was to ensure U.S. military and political hegemony over its European “allies.” The Supreme Allied Commander of NATO has always been an American, and Supreme Allied Command-Europe is based in Norfolk, Va., even though the official “headquarters” are on the continent. European NATO members have always been junior partners, taking their orders from the Pentagon.

From 1949 to the 1960s, the focus was mostly on the Soviet Union nd eastern Europe.. East Germany called German Democratic Republic was on the radar of NATO. The US and its European partners were not reconciled to the existence of a communist dominated Germany in the eastern part. The rift between Soviet Union and China beginning the early 1960s was taken advantage of by NATO during those two decades. The internal contradictions in the communist Parties of Eastern Europe helped the NATO to build its ties with a section of the army in these countries. In 1990 end, the East German government collapsed beginning the process of disintegration of the communist regimes in Eastern Europe.

The NATO achieved its primary purpose when socialism was destroyed in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. Of course, that did not mean U.S. took a break or that NATO diluted its role. The pledge that Western leaders made to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev when the Cold War ended that NATO would not expand eastward, was broken soon after.

In the following years, former Warsaw Pact countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and others were swallowed up. Later, even former republics of the USSR itself—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—were brought into the pact.

With Russia weakened, NATO also began engaging more directly in armed aggression, starting with the Balkan Wars and the sectional dismantlement of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, alliance members joined the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan and deployed soldiers to Iraq. Later, NATO planes participated in the bombing of Libya that into a civil war.

Despite spreading its tentacles toward new targets, attention never drifted away from confrontation with Russia. Since 2002, NATO has openly courted Ukraine to join its anti-Moscow alliance. Though rebuffed by former President Viktor Yanukovych, the 2014 coup in Ukraine brought to power a right-wing government eager to hitch itself to Washington. It was the U.S, which had helped put it that same government in power.

Weapons supplied by NATO fuelled Kiev’s campaign in the Ukrainian civil war in the east, always with the goal of splitting the country away from cooperation with Russia and opening a pathway for eventual NATO membership. It was the threat of U.S.-controlled troops and weapons being stationed in a NATO-aligned Ukraine, a country that had been a part of the Soviet heartland, that played a major role in sparking the war that erupted following the Russian invasion of 2022.

Europe, Afghanistan, the Middle East, North Africa, Ukraine—none of these have proven to be enough for those who lead NATO. In recent years, they’ve also set their sights on the Pacific, with the alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently declaring China “a threat to security and democracy.” As they did before, the European powers are joining in yet another Cold War.

In the 75th year, NATO has been on an expansion spree and this time, the focus is both Russia and China. Though NATO’s immediate focus is on weakening Russia through its whole hearted support to Ukraine, the generals are worried at close collaboration between Russian and the Chinese Presidents these days. NATO knows that China is a top military power and its backing of Russia in any confrontation with NATO, will be costly for the western military alliance.

NATO has given membership to Finland posing a security threat to Russia. In Europe, there is a rightwing shift these days in the outcome of the elections. That gives comfort as also worries for NATO. There is nationalistic upsurge and some of the parties which may win in EU elections may like to support an independent defence and security policy in their own country without caring for NATO.

But the most serious worry for NATO in the year 2024 is the outcome of the Presidential elections in USA in November this year. If Donald Trump wins in the elections, the entire US policy to NATO will be recast again. In his last term, Trump initiated the process but this time, he has declared that the USA will substantially cut its spending on NATO. The other countries will have to properly share the expenses. Further, elected Trump may come to conclude separate deals with Russia and China without caring for NATO.

That way, 2024 developments bring lot of uncertainties about the future of NATO in the year 2025 and beyond. The focus of the western powers led by the US in NATO remains the same but the geopolitics has changed. The expanded NATO has to reorient its role taking into account the ground realities. Just expansion is not helping the organization in the present period. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The United States is finally facing a big isolation from its supporting countries over its continuing backing to the war crimes of Israeli defence forces in the Gaza strip. The Biden government faced an international condemnation on Tuesday night after its representative vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

What was significant was that even, Britain, a close US ally in the present US backing to Israel in the Gaza war, abstained in the vote, but all of the remaining 13 security council members backed the resolution, reflecting the strong support from countries around the globe for ending the war. France, a leading member of NATO was among the countries supporting the UN resolution.

The war between the Hamas militants and Israel started on October 7 last year following sudden attack by Hamas on Israeli positions and killing both Israeli soldiers as also taking hostages. The Israel retaliated. Many countries decried the Hamas action at that time, but Israel continued with its barbaric killing of the civilian population in the Gaza strip declaring that they would not stop the war till a single Hamas militant was alive. The entire objective is to do ethnic cleansing by driving out the Palestinians from the Gaza strip.

Since October 7, in the last four and half months,, more than 29,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s military offensive, the vast majority of them women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. More than 1300 Israeli soldiers have been killed .The difference is that while the Hamas militants killed mostly the Israeli soldiers, the Israelis targeted the Palestinian civilians including the women and children. Earlier also the US vetoed the UN resolution but this time, the support in favour of UN resolution was widespread.

China’s UN envoy Zhang Jun expressed “strong disappointment and dissatisfaction” with the veto by Washington. The envoy said that the US veto sends a wrong message pushing the situation in Gaza into a more dangerous one. The objection to ceasefire by the US is nothing but a green light to Israel to continue slaughter, he said.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez also blasted the US, saying that by blocking the ceasefire call, US officials made themselves “accomplices of this genocide of Israel against Palestine.”

There was further criticism of the US veto from France, Norway Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority, among others. It was the third US rejection of a security council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.US ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield however claimed that the resolution, tabled by Algeria, would “negatively impact” sensitive negotiations on a hostage deal and a pause in fighting for at least six weeks.

Across Gaza, Israel’s killing spree continued, with at least 67 Palestinian lives lost in the last two days .Aid group Doctors Without Borders said that two people had been killed when a shelter housing its staff in the Gaza Strip was struck during an Israeli operation in an area where Palestinians have been told to seek shelter.

The World Food Programme (WFP) announced a pause in food and aid deliveries to northern Gaza on Tuesday after its drivers faced gunfire and violence from desperate residents swarming the lorries. The UN agency said that one in six children under the age of two were acutely malnourished and people are dying of hunger-related causes. “In these past two days, our teams witnessed unprecedented levels of desperation,” the WFP said.

While a leading BRIC nation South Africa has taken Israel to the International Court of Justice for war crimes and the ICJ strongly condemned the Israeli killings and urged it to take immediate action to stop that, Brazilian President LuizInacio “Lula” da Silva recalled his country’s ambassador to Israel on Monday. This followed Israel saying that Lula would not be welcome in their country until he apologised for comments he made over the weekend that compared Israel’s assault on Palestinians in Gaza to the Holocaust. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz described Lula’s comments as a “very serious anti-semitic attack.”

The Brazilian president told the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Sunday that “what is happening in the Gaza Strip and to the Palestinian people hasn’t been seen in any other moment in history.

Strangely while most major BRIC nations are taking on Israel for its genocide in Gaza strip, India is still keeping a friendly posture to Israel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personal bond with the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the Indian PM flaunts it. Right now, Israel is recruiting Indian unemployed youth for recruitment in its activities related to war. Many thousands have applied for these war related jobs in Israel. Indian Government is allowing the Indian youth to take up jobs to help the Israeli war machine. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The European Union nations which talk of liberty and democracy and consider themselves as superior to others including the US in terms of protection of human rights have shown their true colour in the current Israel-Hamas war which is continuing for nearly four months.

More than 27,000 people have been killed by Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, the territory’s Health Ministry reported , after South Africa accused Tel Aviv of ignoring the order of the International Court of Justice(ICJ) issued on January 26. Since then, Israel not only ridiculed the ICJ order but also ignored that with vengeance by continuing the killings of Palestinians in the Gaza strip. Since the order was issued, the Israeli killings accounted for more than 1100 it is learnt.

South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said on Wednesday that her country would “look at proposing other measures to the global community” in a bid to stop Israel killing civilians. She said that the rulings of ICJ have been ignored since Israel believes that it has got license to do any action She mentioned that there was a danger that if the big nations did not take any preventive measure against Israel, the civilian casualties would mount to huge number like 1994 Rwandan genocide.

The court’s ruling is binding on Israel, which could theoretically face UN sanctions if it is found to be breaching the orders, although any punishment is almost certain to be vetoed by the United States..So far US president Joe Biden has given no indication that he would persuade Israel to stop killings. Other EU nations are following the US, Britain is already sending arms and France also continues to remain mum on Israeli killings.

South Africa is also eager to pursue a case it has lodged with the International Criminal Court accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of war crimes.ICC earlier termed Russian President Vladimir Putin as war criminal relating to removal of children from Ukraine during the continuing war. A warrant of arrest was issued and President Putin could not visit India for G-20 meeting due to that.

As regards Europe, Israel does not take care of the views of the EU leaders as long as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has the support of Washington and EU knows that..EU has good economic relations with the Arab countries but still on this Israel-Hamas war issue, the EU nations are effectively behaving as a lackey of the US government.

During a joint press conference in Brussels with Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, and EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, Borell said that “Israel cannot have the veto right to the self-determination of the Palestinian people.” But the comment had no impact on the action of the EU governments.

Soon after the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, European leaders—starting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and French President Emmanuel Macron—flocked to Tel Aviv to, in the words of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, reiterate that “Israel has every right to defend itself.” Immediately, the EU governments extended military and intelligence support knowing fully that Israel is carrying the genocide of Palestinians in the name of exterminating the Hamas.

As of Nov. 2, the German government has approved the export of close to 303 million euros’ ($323 million) worth of defense equipment to Israel,” Reuters reported, comparing the large sum to the 32 million euros’ worth of defense exports that were approved by Berlin in all of 2022. This is just one example. The shipments are continuing and German arms manufacturers are competing with other suppliers from the EU nations.

According to the political observers, while the Americans did not shy away from assuming the role of partner in the Gaza war, the EU’ did not fully go by US position but this was dishonest and, at best, morally inconsistent. For example, an enthusiastic Macron wanted to establish an anti-ISIS-like military coalition to target Hamas, though leaders of Spain and Belgium jointly called for a permanent ceasefire during a press conference at the Egyptian Rafah border on November 24.

Some European nations are aggrieved at Israeli vengeance in Gaza, they talk in public sometimes, but that opposition to Israel can not be translated into immediate action. Europe is tied to American geo political strategy and that is the tragedy of Europe. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

With the killing of three US soldiers in its military base in Jordan on Monday, the Israel Hamas war has spread to one more country in the Middle East region, apart from involving Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. The US military has talked of a consequent action meaning, there will be more severe retaliation by the United States.

The Pentagon has ignored the order of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) which notified its verdict on January 26 asking Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza strip and to report to the ICJ within one month on its steps taken to implement the order. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ridiculed the order and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) has announced that Israeli will not stop its operations in Gaza until Hamas militants are fully eliminated.

A fringe group of militias calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it was responsible for the drone attack on the site known as Tower 22. The group emerged after Israel’s bombardment in Gaza began. Iran has however denied any involvement in the attacks and the militants but the US is searching the possible areas in Iran to locate the militants. If they find the bases, massive strikes by the US are expected within Iran. Already the US planes have carried out big strikes at a militia base around Iraq-Syria border. Now they are focusing on Iranian border and also inside the country.

President Joe Biden said the US response against all involved in the Tower 22 attack would “come at a time and place of its choosing.” He has faced pressure from opposition politicians demanding military action against Iran. Both Republicans and Democrats are demanding severe action against Iran for helping the Houthis and Hamas. The US exporters are deeply worried at the insecurity in the Red Sea due to the action of the rebels. The pro-Democrat Wall Street crowd have warned President Biden to take on both Hamas and Iran.

US political analysts are saying that President Biden’s initial move to limit the war within Gaza has failed as it has spread to other countries of te region. The US soldiers are paying the price for that through their lives. Some Democratic Congressmen have started talking of persuading Israel to opt for ceasefire so that the war does not turn more widespread involving Iran and other Arab countries of the region. But so far, there is no sign that President Biden will opt for that

Since the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, US bases in Iraq and Syria have been attacked around 150 times, according to US officials. Violence elsewhere in the region is continuing, with an Israeli air strike on a Damascus suburb killing and wounding several people on Monday.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the attack had hit a farm housing members of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group and other Iran-backed factions.

It said the strike had killed seven people, including four Syrians, one of whom was the bodyguard of a member of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

Yemen’s Houthi movement said it had attacked a US navy mobile base at sea, but the claim was immediately rejected by a US defence official. Houthi attacks will continue “until the aggression is stopped and the siege is lifted on the people of Palestine in the Gaza Strip,” military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement. The Houthis are the main militants who are attacking the western ships in Red Sea.

The NATO nations also are giving no credence to the ICJ order on the stoppage of Israeli genocide. The shipment of arms and weapons are being carried out as usual to Israel. The arms manufacturing companies are having a field day. Every day, the civilians are being killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza and the adjoining areas belonging to the Palestinians. There is no sign of the end of the war. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Israel’s Gaza war has entered its fourth month on January 7 this year leading to a death toll of more than 22,500.The entire Gaza strip has been devastated by the Israeli bombings. Apart, the Israel Defence Forces have targeted areas of both Lebanon and Iraq giving the war against the Palestinians a regional dimension in the West Asia.

Backed by full support from US president Joe Biden and his NATO allies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has become desperate to not only finish Hamas militants from the Gaza strip and carry out the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians from the occupied area, he is openly threatening to teach lessons to those who have stood by Hamas. Israel is now running a proxy war in the region against Iran also.

US state secretary Antony Blinken is continuously visiting the middle east region and claims that he is talking with the regional powers for bringing about a ceasefire, but the sources in Washington confirm that the rightwing of the Democratic Party is equally interested along with the Republicans to make use of this occasion to bring about a change in the West Asian order that will isolate Iran and its friends in the region.. Israel wants some more time to achieve its objective of ethnic cleansing. That is being given by both the President Biden and the US secretary of state Antony Blinken, despite massive pressure in America from the people for organizing immediate ceasefire.

On New Year’s Day, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declared, again, that “Encouraging the residents of Gaza to emigrate to the countries of the world is a solution we must advance.” This was seconded by the Israeli finance minister who said that every Palestinian must go out of Gaza because Israel cannot tolerate two million people next door who wake up every morning with the aspiration of the destruction of Israel.

The U.S. State Department criticized the two ministers, calling their genocidal rhetoric “irresponsible.” Ben-Gvir shot back, “I really admire the United States of America but with all due respect, we are not another star in the American flag.” In fact what the two ministers have said is the conviction of the Israeli defence forces who are participating in the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is a captive of the IDF and he is under threat that any other policy other than full scale eviction of Palestinians from Gaza, will be opposed by the IDF. Netanyahu is reported to have explained that to Blinken during his latest discussions.

Last week, Israeli drone-delivered missiles struck the Lebanese capital of Beirut in targeted assassinations of a number of top Hamas officials. Senior among them was Saleh al-Arouri, a former leader of the Qassam Brigades and the person responsible for coordinating Hamas’ military and political activities outside of Gaza. Earlier Israeli PM assured the US president that the Israeli forces would not carry out any missions outside the Gaza strip in any other countries of the region, but the IDF pressure persuaded the PM to endorse all the actions outside the war zone in the recent days.

David Barnea, chief of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, indicated that more such strikes should be expected. Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, vowed that the killing would not go “without response and without punishment.” He said that if Israel launches a war on Lebanon, his group is prepared for a “fight without limits.” This means that there is every possibility of the war tuning into a full scale war between Israel and Lebanon if there is no big pressure from the Americans to stop such assassinations by the Mossad and IDF.

Already, the Israelis have killed 120 people inside Lebanon while attacking the Hezbollas. On Wednesday, a pair of explosions in Kerman, Iran, at a memorial for Qasem Soleimani, a general assassinated by the U.S. in 2020, killed dozens. The government there quickly blamed Israel and the U.S. for the bombing, but the Islamic State terrorist group eventually claimed credit.

Further on Christmas Day, Israel assassinated another Iranian general in Syria, Sayyed Razi Mousavi. An Israeli statement called him an “arms smuggler,” while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel would “pay the price” for its attack. There is no restraint by IDF now. They have got some time and they are trying to make full use of that by killings.

In Baghdad on Wednesday, U.S. military drones killed three Iraqi security officials with supposed links to Iran. The Iraqi government denounced the U.S., calling the strike a “flagrant violation of the sovereignty and security of Iraq” and “no different from a terrorist act.” Several Iraqi political parties are calling for the immediate expulsion of the 2,500 U.S. troops stationed in the country.

The latest is the attacks on ships in Red Sea by the Yemen related Houthis. The ship owners including the big exporters in the US are upset and the Wall Street sources say that there is a big pressure on President Biden to take on Iran through Israel. This, if it takes place, will be a dangerous development as Iran is a nuclear power and Russia and China will not be silent. The international opinion including the United Nations have to intervene before things move in that direction. For West Asia, the short term future is grim The Sanders group in the US Democratic Party along with the peace forces in the US have to assert effectively to persuade President Biden for an immediate ceasefire. Otherwise, it will lead to a full scale war in West Asia. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Narendra Modi Government’s decision to freeze the accounts of the news portal NewsClick through the actions of the Income Tax Department is nothing but the continuation of the organized attack by the central agencies on this leading news portal to make it dysfunctional before the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.The latest IT action has led to the blocking of the payments made by the NC leading to acute embarrassment to this organization which is known for its prompt payments to its consultants and contributors.

NewsClick has always complied with the laws of the land, including all tax regulations. The claims levelled by the Income Tax Department have been challenged. There are normal rules which have been totally violated by this drastic action in suddenly freezing the accounts just before the year-end festival season is starting.

Earlier. the raids by the Delhi police on the staff of the NewsClick news portal and subsequent arrest of the founder editor Prabir Purkayastha and HR head Amit Chakraborty on October 3 signalled the arrival of an era when all norms of democracy and press freedom were violated to achieve the objective of the ruling establishment to curb dissent.

The NewsClick case shows how the central government agencies can convert a pending case in Delhi High Court on money laundering under PMLA rule into a case of conspiracy and terrorism under the draconian UAPA once it appeared that the allegations under PMLA might not be proved in the Court. This conversion is a dangerous development and this hurts at the very root of the current judicial system.

The fact is that the enforcement directorate (ED) has made allegations of money laundering under PMLA rules against the portal NewsClick and its founder editor Prabir Purkayastha and the case of ED is being heard in Delhi High Court since 2021. So far the hearings have not proved that NC violated the foreign funds laws. NC says that the RBI has found no violation and NC management has full faith in the judgment of the court. Without waiting for the judgment of the Delhi High Court, not ED, but Delhi police struck against the portal staff under a FIR lodged in August this year under UAPA. Nobody knew about this FIR till October 3. Now the case is not of money laundering, but under clauses of terrorism and conspiracy.

The ED has every right to take action under the PMLA rules against NC if they could prove in the court the violations of the official rules including the RBI guidelines, but they did not wait for the verdict since it was becoming apparent that the transactions were made as per existing laws of the country. The Government agencies could not therefore wait for the hearing to be completed, the task of teaching lessons to a prodigal portal was passed over to the Home Ministry from the Finance Ministry which controls ED officially.

Since October 3, NC Editor Prabir Purakayastha and the HR head Amit Chakraborty are in jail, all bail applications till now have been rejected. The Supreme Court which agreed to hear the petition against the arrest postponed the hearing till the early New Year. The learned judges refused to take cognizance of the seriousness of the issue since time was very crucial in this case. The IT department got involved after the ED and the CBI did their jobs in collusion. The objective of the ruling regime at the centre is to cripple the operations of this news portal from all directions..

The Constitution makers have talked of four pillars of our democracy- legislature, executive, judiciary and media. Media is the fourth pillar and all those who believe in democracy feel that each pillar will complement the others to make India a vibrant democracy. This is the time when certainly, media can look to the other pillar judiciary to see whether the executive is functioning to strengthen the democracy or to subvert that.

The letter sent by 18 media organisations of the country to the Chief Justice of India Dr. D Y Chandrachud soon after the arrests is very relevant in this context. The CJI has always been a supporter for strengthening the fourth pillar of the Constitution. It was the CJI who said ‘ the press has a duty to speak truth to power and resent citizens with hard facts enabling them to make choices that propel democracy in the right direction and that India’s freedom will be safe as long as journalists can play this role without being chilled by a threat of reprisal.’

Dr Chandrachud, is absolutely right in underlining what the duties of a free press should be. . The voices of ruling establishment don’t allow the press to speak truth to power as he wants. They get panicky when the journalists play their role without being chilled by a threat of reprisal. The ruling government and the party BJP want embedded media which the CJI does not want. The journalists under attack on October 3 and 4 have been following the same principles which the CJI has been advocating.

The World Press Freedom Index ranks India at 161, in the bottom twenty of the 180 countries whose status it assesses. The fall has been immense and sharp since 2015. India is also the global internet shutdown capital, with by far the highest number of internet closures per year amongst all democracies.

India has displayed record democratic backsliding, and the state of the press is a vital component of the deterioration. Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks of India as a mother of democracy but in his rule of nearly a decade, the backsliding has accentuated. The Supreme Court under the CJI can rise to the occasion and play a historic role in reverting the present process and restore the vision on the press freedom which the Constitution makers held.

Already, it is too late, but still the media expects that the apex court as the custodian of the four pillars of democracy will take up on priority the issues involved in the NC petition and stand by the ethics so dear to the CJI. Let the New Year begin with an intervention by the Supreme Court in the interests of media freedom. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

All indications available from the Congress and Trinamool Congress sources on the eve of the INDIA constituents meeting in New Delhi on December 19 suggest that the Congress high command is itching to form an electoral alliance with the Trinamool Congress in Bengal for fighting the BJP jointly in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls..

This means that the Congress will have to do away with its alliance with the CPI(M) led Left Front at the state level., if the Congress-TMC alliance takes shape. So long both the Congress and the CPI(M) have been fighting the ruling TMC in the state. The state Congress president Adhir Choudhury has been most vocal in criticising the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her rule in the state. He has been maintaining the position that the state Congress will fight both the BJP and the TMC simultaneously in alliance with the CPI(M) led Left Front.

In the present Lok Sabha, the Congress has two seats, the BJP 17 and the TMC 23.The CPI(M), for the first time since its formation in 1964, has no seat in Lok Sabha from Bengal. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got 18 seats, but in Asansol by polls later, the TMC defeated the BJP and so BJP strength has come down to 17. Further another 2019 BJP winner Arjun Singh left BJP and joined Trinamool, though officially he is still considered a BJP Lok Sabha member. At the same time, Kathi Lok Sabha MP Sisir Adhikary, father of the BJP opposition leader in Bengal assembly Suvendu Adhikari has left connections with TMC. He is supporting his son. .

The electoral scenario in Bengal has undergone substantial change in favour of TMC in the last five years since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The results of the 2021 assembly elections showed that the TMC has been able to restore its lost base from BJP in all South Bengal districts, but in North Bengal, the BJP influence still remains. TMC on its own carried out its survey and it showed that in six Lok Sabha seats in North Bengal where the BJP won in 2019, TMC is not in a position to defeat them on its own , but if there is an alliance with the Congress, BJP can be defeated in at least five out of six seats. The fact is that the Congress on its own, is not in a position to win any seat, but its vote base varying from 5 per cent to 12 per cent in some North Bengal seats can lead to TMC-Congress alliance win.

As regards Congress high command, sources say that its own assessment reportedly shows that the alliance of Congress and CPI(M) led Left Front is in no position to defeat BJP by fighting simultaneously TMC. Congress studies have analysed the CPI(M) vote share in the recent polls. Its assessment is reported to be, if there has to be a choice, between TMC and the CPI(M), an alliance with the TMC is desirable for the Congress in term of sure seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Sources maintain that the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in his talks with the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee on December 4 mentioned about the need for the INDIA parties to fight jointly in Bengal to which she agreed and told him to start the seat sharing talks as early as possible. Both of them decided to take forward the discussions on seat sharing at the INDIA meeting on December 19.

As a follow up, TMC has offered three seats to the Congress in the first stage of discussions, the two present seats at Berhampore and Maldah South. Apart, TMC is reported to have offered Raiganj seat to the Congress. This seat is now held by the BJP. Congress, it is leant is looking for minimum six seats. But TMC sources say that any further addition to Congress seat will depend on the Congress agreeing to one seat to TMC in Assam and another one in Meghalaya. Assam has got 14 Lok Sabha seats and Meghalaya two LS seats.

TMC has been giving focus on North Bengal districts, the strongest area of the BJP and the weakest for the TMC. In South Bengal districts, the TMC dominance is absolute now. The party needs virtually no support to defeat BJP. But in North Bengal districts, the BJP’s strength has declines a bit since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but still it is adequate to get a good number of seats. The six seats in the North Bengal districts include Alipur Duar, Balurghat, Coochbehar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri and Raiganj. In these seats, the vote share by BJP varied from 59 per cent to the lowest 40 per cent.

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC got 34 seats out of the total 42 seats, then in 2019 polls, it went down to 22 seats. Now TMC is working on restoring that strength of 34 seats again. As for Congress high command, its earlier hopes of getting substantial seats from the Hindi heartland have got some jolt in the wake of the results in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The party is not ready to give up any existing Lok Sabha seat in any state including Bengal. It is to be seen whether the Bengal Congress falls in line with Delhi or the high command stops its own move and allow the state Congress to pursue its alliance with the Left Front in the interests of party organisation. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The results of the general elections in Netherlands held on November 22 indicating the emergence of the far right Party for Freedom (PVV) headed by Geert Wilders sent a shock wave across Europe. PVV became the biggest party in the Netherlands winning 37 of the 150 seats in parliament. Never in Dutch post-war history has a far-right party achieved such a massive victory. The election campaign was conducted on the issues of economy and immigration. The highly hyper nationalist stand of PVV clicked with the disgruntled citizens facilitating the PVV victory.

The political analysts are more or less agreed that the far right is on ascendency in Europe marginalizing centre-right and centre-left taking advantage of the arrival of the refugees in big numbers from the countries affected by Ukraine war and the latest Israel-Hamas conflict. Added to this is the jolt to the living standards of these countries due to energy shortage following the continuation of sanctions on Russia by European Union.

According to a leading analyst of European politics, this result is symptomatic of the further radicalization of the Right. Although the themes of the “cost of living” crisis and the democratic accountability of government figured prominently in this election, the politicization of migration was decisive. It has risen in fits and starts over the last decade but became central again when the last government collapsed over the issue. Wilders, the politician who made his peroxide blonde haircut a questionable fashion statement before Donald Trump, drew on the latter to inspire his election slogan: “Dutch people first.”

Interestingly, the newly emerging far right leaders are copying Donald Trump. Geert Wilders had given call in the manner of Donald Trump to ‘Make Netherlands Great Again”. The same slogan was given by the newly elected far right President of Argentina Javier Milei. He said that for him Argentina was the first and he would make Argentina great again. The newly elected rightwing president of Ecuador Daniel Novoa is known as the Trump of Ecuador. He is the scion of the largest banana company of the country. In all Donald Trump is inspiring a number of far right leaders in both Latin America and Europe.

As of now,, there are a large number of far right parties in Europe which are in power in coalition with others. Meloni of the far right Brothers of Italy Party is the prime minister of the coalition government in Italy.. Swiss People’s Party is the biggest party belonging to far right in Switzerland which for long was free from the influence of the conservatives. Then the right wing Finns Party is the partner of the coalition government in Finland. In both Finland and Sweden, the domination of the Social Democrats has been curbed by the rising right forces in the recent years.

Amidst this right wing resurgence in European politics, only Spain has thwarted the attempts of the resurging right to displace the Socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez who is running his own government as a part of the coalition with Let led by the Spanish Communist leader Yalonda Diaz, the Deputy Prime Minister . The far right VOX along with the right wing party tried to defeat the Left coalition but earlier this month Sanchez got majority with the support of Basque nationalists and the new Spanish ministry under him has worked out a programme for rejuvenation of Spanish economy.

In Germany, the Social Democratic Olaf Scholz was elected as the Chancellor in December 2021 general elections. He is running his government in cooperation with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party. The Left wing Die Linke is sitting in the opposition. The far right AFD showed resurgence in 2021 and 2022 but in 2023, the AFD could not expand as expected. At the other end, the Left in Germany is faced with a crisis with the vertical split of the Die Linke on ideological lines. The new party with ten members out of 37 members of Bundestag will start functioning from January next year. It is to be seen whether the new party can achieve success in giving a new direction to the struggles of the working people and in mobilizing the other left wing groups under a common programme.

In Britain, Prime Minister Sunak of the Conservative Party is making efforts to pep up his party which is facing a big credibility crisis following big defeats in the local polls and the by elections at the hands of the Labour Party. The general elections are due by the end of 2024. The Conservatives, according to the latest opinion polls, are lagging by 15 to 18 points behind Labour. The Labour Party’s shadow PM Sir Kier Starmer is confident of coming to power in 2024 elections. Much will depend on the developments in Britain in the next one year. The Labour Party leadership has shifted to the centre right under Starmer, The left wing Jeremy Corbyn Who headed the Labour Party in parliament earlier, has been sidelined.. The Labour has also lot of organizational problems to take care of… One thing about Britain is that though there are grievances against the immigrants, the far right has not made much headway.

In France, despite all the problems, the centrist President Macron is in control. The far right Li Pen is a bit down these days as her earlier plans for expansion have not fructified. Li Pen supporters are trying to arouse passions against the immigrants but those are equally combated by the joint rally of the liberals and the left. In the recent weeks, there have been big rallies by both the Right and the Left. That way, in Europe, the far right has been expanding its areas more in smaller countries compared to the bigger countries like Britain, Germany and France. The Right bid is expected to continue in 2024 as well. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Latin American politics is once again witnessing a big turmoil with the left wing resurgence in 2021 and 2022 getting a big setback at the fag end of 2023 as two countries Argentina and Ecuador elected right wing Presidents as against the strong left candidates. For Left, the defeat in Argentina of the ruling Peronist candidate Sergio Massa at the hands of the far right Javier Milei in the presidential run off on November 19, was a big jolt. In Ecuador also, the veteran left coalition candidate Luis Gonzalez was defeated by a 35 year old greenhorn Daniel Noboa, the heir of the biggest banana empire of the country.

As the year 2023 approaches its end and 2024 begins, the political focus is again put on the presidential elections to the five countries of the continent – Mexico, Uruguay, El Salvador, Panama and Dominican Republic. Out of these five, Mexico and Uruguay are having Left leaning presidents while the three others are having presidents with different shades of Right.. The Left defeat in the year end presidential elections has emboldened the anti-Left forces in the region and there are efforts for the consolidation of right forces.

Despite the two Left defeats, on the whole, the Latin American region is currently ruled by more Left leaning governments than the Right. The leaders of the Left resurgence are Mexico and Brazil led by two highly respected presidents Lopez Obrador or AMLO and Lula respectively. Presently, out of the 21 countries in the continent, the Left has governments in eleven including Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Honduras and Uruguay. Cuba remains a communist led nation since 1959 when Fidel Castro successfully carried out the revolution against the dictator Batista.

As against this, the Right dominated governments include Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Paraguay Dominican Republic and Panama. Costa Rica has a government led president Rodrigo Chaves Robles of Social Democratic Progress Party. This Party takes a populist anti-establishment line different from both left and right. Generally, the right wing led governments get support from the US government and the multinational corporations, but in the recent months, the talk of collaboration among the Latin American nations economies to get maximum benefits by utilization of natural resources has caught the attention of the right wing regimes also. There is some churning. Haiti and Puerto Rico are two other countries under US influence.

In October 2022, the biggest victory of the Left was in Brazil when the former president Lula defeated the far right incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in a close fight and officially took over the presidency on January 1 this year. In the last eleven months, the popular president introduced a large number of measures in favour of the underprivileged and brought about a sea change in the standard of living of the poor and the low paid workers. The new president took lead in organizing the conference of the Latin American nations and along with the Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, popularly known as AMLO brought about radical change in the approach of the nations towards utilizing the natural resources of the country. President Lula has emphasized on the cooperation of the Latin American countries in making optimum use of their respective strengths for joint manufacturing.

Right now, the Morena coalition ruling Mexico is considered the left wing government which has the best record in serving the people and this performance of the Mexican government during the last five years has given a big boost to the left parties in other Latin American countries. All the left wing governments are taking the Mexico performance as their model and the Mexican performance is under discussion at all developmental forums concerning Latin America these days.

On August 10 this year, Mexico’s National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL), an independent federal agency, released its much-awaited poverty measurements for 2022. Its findings outstripped the most optimistic forecasts: the multidimensional poverty rate in Mexico — a measurement of income plus a series of social rights such as food, housing, and education — fell 5.6 percent from 2018 to 2022, translating to some 5.1 million people. When compared to the height of the pandemic, the numbers are even more dramatic, with 8.9 million being lifted out of poverty over the last two years.

Other statistics from the report, together with findings from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), were equally promising. The income gap between the top and lowest 10 percent of incomes is down from twenty-one times (2016) to fifteen times (2022), while the Gini coefficient has dropped from 0.448 to 0.402 over the same period.

The divide between the lowest- and highest-income states has been squeezed by 20 percent, an important indicator in a country with a historic north/south divide. Another crucial divide, rural/urban, has also been ameliorated by a 17 percent rise in household incomes in the countryside. What is more, the highest income gains have come among women and those in the most precarious employment, such as agriculture and the informal sector in general.

Despite the impressive gains of recent years, Mexico remains a country with forty-seven million poor and eighty-five million with deficits in at least one of the multidimensional categories. In a sense, the floor being as low as it was, the “easiest” part is behind Mexico’s Fourth Transformation and its party, MORENA. Ahead of it now is a road of continuing to increase wages and labour rights while attacking intransigent structural problems such as health care: something that will be virtually impossible without a progressive tax reform which is the focus of the AMLO presidency now. Mexico is on right path to establish a welfare state and that has strengthened the cause of left programme in the region.

Seasoned political observers of the Latin American Left are quite confident about the impact of the performance of both Mexico and Brazil on the 2024 presidential elections, but they are worried at the deterioration of the economies in some of the other Left regimes. The defeat in Argentina was primarily due to the unprecedented inflation rate of 140 per cent and the instability of the Argentina currency.. The precarious economic situation angered the working class and the trade unions. A good section of the traditional supporting base of the Peronists voted for the far right candidate Javier Milei. In Ecuador, the situation is different. Though the Left candidate Luis Gonzalez has lost, her party is confident that the new president of the far right Noboa with little experience in government functioning will be able to do anything substantial to revive the economy in the next eighteen months. His term is up to May 2025. So there is no despondency among the Ecuadorian Left. That way, the Left is now focusing more concentration on the economy so that the living conditions for the citizens improve substantially by the time the presidential polls are held in the five nations in 2024. (IPA Service)

The post Resurgent Left In Latin America Faces Two Presidential Defeats By End Of 2023 first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Resurgent Left In Latin America Faces Two Presidential Defeats By End Of 2023 appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

In a big setback to the Left in Latin American region, Far Right outsider Javier Milei defeated the Left coalition’s Peronist economy minister Sergio Massa in a close contest in the Presidential elections held on Sunday November 19.Milei got around 55 per cent of the votes polled as against the Peronist minister and sealed his election as the new President of the second largest country in the Latin American continent.

The victory of the Far Right candidate in the Argentina presidential elections is a reversal of the process of pink tides in the Latin American countries in the presidential elections of the last two years. After the election of the leftwing Morena party candidate Obrador as the President of Mexico in 2018, in most of the presidential elections in the region, the left wing candidates won. These countries so far include Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Guatemala, Honduras, Columbia .and most importantly Brazil. Only on October 15 this year, the leftwing candidate got defeated in Ecuador in the presidential elections.. After that, the right victory took place in Argentina. The term of the President is for four years.

The victory of the Far Right Milei has both political and economic implications for the immediate future of the economy of the region. Milei, who is called the Donald Trump of Argentina has a completely different political and economic perspective about the future of the Argentine economy and its links with the other countries of the region. He fought on a completely different platform as against the pro public sector programme of the Peronist government.

His campaign promise to dollarize Argentina, if enacted, is expected to thrust the country into a new developmental path. No country of Argentina’s size has previously turned over the reins of its own monetary policy to Washington and the multinational corporations.. With his coming, the collaboration planned between Mexico, Brazil and Argentina-the three largest economies of the continent for having synergy in economic activities, will also get a jolt. Brazil and Mexico are bent on diluting the role of the US companies in the development of their respective economies, but the President elect wants full involvement of the US in the economic rehabilitation of Argentina which is facing an inflation rate of around 140 per cent this year.

Milei, a social conservative with ties to the American right, opposes abortion rights and has called climate change a “lie of socialism.” He has promised to slash government spending by closing Argentina’s ministries of culture, education, and diversity, and by eliminating public subsidies. Milei’s programme of cutting the role of the state in development of Argentina has been welcomed by his mentor Donald Trump. Who tweeted on his platform Truth ‘I am proud of you. Make Argentina great again’

Outside of his controversial plan for dollarization, Milei’s political program includes slashing regulations on gun control and transferring authority over the penitentiary system from civilians to the military; both measures part of a tough-on-crime approach. He proposes using public funds to support families who choose to educate their children privately and even privatizing the health sector, which in Argentina has always been in public hands. This specific plan for dismantling the government subsidized health system was one of the key points in the campaign by the Left candidate Massa. It seems that the economic crisis and unprecedented price rise in the current year had its impact on the common people who believed in the programme of Milei to bring inflation down within a year.

The Left coalition has accepted the verdict gracefully and preparing for the next round of battle. The Peronists and its Left allies have ruled Argentina for many terms and have solid base among the underprivileged. The coalition leaders are waiting for the takeover of the new President and the result of the implementation of his promised programmes. Political analysts are of the view that in a vast country like Argentina it is not possible to give relief to the underprivileged by cutting the role of the state. Already, the country’s population is polarized. . The impact of Milei’s unconventional programmes will decide which way the wind will blow during 2024. The Left in other countries of Latin America are watching with keen interest the coming developments in the crisis ridden economy of Argentina. (IPA Service)

The post Far Right Outsider Javier Milei Wins Presidential Elections In Argentina first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Far Right Outsider Javier Milei Wins Presidential Elections In Argentina appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

Only three days before the polling for the Argentina presidential elections on November 19, no opinion agency is predicting the victory of any candidate as both the Left wing Sergio Massa and his far right rival Javier Milei are running neck and neck in the electoral campaign. Some surveys have shown Milei getting a small lead but a few other surveys have shown Massa in a winning position with a lead of 3 to 4 per cent.

In such tight situation, both the candidates are wooing the 35 per cent of the voters who did not vote in the first round of polls on October 15. In that polls, Massa took the lead with 36 per cent of the votes polled as against 30 per cent by Milei. This was a bit surprising at that time as all opinion polls before the first round of polls gave Milei a lead of five to seven per cent.

In the first round, the third candidate Ms. Bullrich, a conservative got 23.8 per cent votes. She has declared her support to Milei in the final round and this should give a big boost to the chances of the far right candidate. But her decision has been contested by a large sections of her supporters. Finally, her vote bank got divided. Milei is not sure how much of Ms. Bullrich’s votes will be cast in his favour on November 19.

Interestingly, the Peronist candidate Sergio Massa is focusing most on the absentee 35 per cent of the voters. His camp is claiming that they good response from these absentee voters. Massa’s programmes to expand further the social security system for the poor and jobs for the unemployed has been welcomed by the electorate. On the other hand, Milei is depending a big way on the social media which is projecting him as an outsider, not involved in any political corruption and having innovative ideas about reviving the economy which is suffering from an inflation rate of 140 per cent now.

In fact, despite doing a good job for the poorer sections in the present term of the government, Massa has a lot to explain about the inflationary pressures on the economy in the last two years. Since he is the minister for economy, his personal responsibility is being questioned. Massa is however saying that there are some external factors., but the government I doing its best and the economic situation will improve in the next few months.

For Massa, the runoff fight has emerged as a big challenge as he will have to get the majority of the votes to be elected. If the 23.8 per cent of the votes received by the conservative third candidate Patricia Bullrich is added, with the far right Milei, then Milei will have an easy victory. So Massa has to get votes from the conservatives also as also from the other sections of the Left represented by the Socialist Workers Party candidate Myriam Bregman.

While far right candidate Milei has proposed dollarizing the economy and closing down the central bank and opening up to the multinationals in key sectors of the economy, the ruling candidate Massa was sober in his approach underlining on the pro poor schemes and the subsidies for the low income group. He admitted the lapses of the Peronist government in curbing the high inflation but assured that the ruling coalition will be taking suitable steps to control price rise after coming to power.

Massa has been a leading figure in the center-left administration in power since 2019. He successfully focused messaging on the way in which Milei’s proposal to slash the size of the state — from halving the number of government ministries to deep spending cuts — would affect everyday life for Argentines.

Milei, a self-described anarcho-capitalist who admires former U.S. President Donald Trump, amassed a groundswell of support while calling for elimination of the Central Bank, replacement of the local currency with the U.S. dollar, and a purge of the establishment that he called the “political caste.”

Massa focused much of his firepower in the campaign’s final days on warning voters against backing Milei, painting him as a dangerous upstart. He argued that Milei’s plans could have devastating effects on social welfare programs, education and health care. The health, education and social development ministries are among those Milei wants to extinguish.

Milei also cast himself as a crusader against what he called the sinister forces of socialism at home and abroad. He opposes sex education, feminist policies and abortion, which is legal in Argentina. He rejects the notion that humans have had a role in causing climate change.

Argentina is a vast country located in the southern part of South America. The eighth largest country in the world, it is the second largest country in South America after Brazil, and it’s about one-third the size of the United States. Argentina is bordered by the Andes Mountains and Chile to the west.

To the east of the Andes, the interior of the country is flat, fertile grassland called the Pampas. The eastern border of the country is the Atlantic Ocean. Bolivia is to the northwest and Paraguay is to the north. The high mountain spine of the Andes, called the Andes Cordillera, creates a natural 3,195-mile (5,141.9-kilometer) border with Chile.

The country is divided into four regions: The Andes, the North, the Pampas, and Patagonia. The Pampas is the agricultural heartland. The country is a federal republic. There have been several democratically elected presidents after many years of political turmoil.

The National Congress is made of the Senate with 72 seats and the Chamber of Deputies with a total of 257 seats. There are seven judges in the Supreme Court, but that number will be reduced to five over the next few years. The president picks the judges and the senate must approve their appointments.

For the Latin American progressives, the victory of the ruling coalition candidate Sergio Massa in run off on November 19 is of crucial significance. Only on October 15, in the presidential elections, the left wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez was defeated by the right candidate. If the centre left can retain the presidency on November 19 elections, that will give a big boost to the Left wing forces of the region. Already Mexico and Brazil are headed by left wing presidents. Argentina is the second largest country in this trio. (IPA Service)

The post Left-Right Battle In Argentina Presidential Polls On November 19 Can Go Either Way first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Left-Right Battle In Argentina Presidential Polls On November 19 Can Go Either Way appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

In a major development in Latin American politics, defying all opinion poll projections, the candidate of the ruling centre left Peronist coalition Sergio Massa trounced the far right challenger Javier Milei in the first round of Presidential elections held on Sunday, October 22. Since no candidate out of the contesting five got more than the stipulated 45 per cent of the votes, the runoff will take place on November 19 this year to elect the President between Massa and Milei, the first and second vote getters.

Massa had 36.6% of the vote, ahead of Milei on just over 30%, while conservative Patricia Bullrich was behind on 23.8% with near 98% of the vote counted, a result that defied pre-election polls that had predicted a win for Javier Milei , a libertarian who stands for unbridled expansion of private sector. The big difference of 6.2 per cent in the voting figure is considered significant since the ruling coalition candidate was facing serious problems during the election campaign due to the high inflation and joblessness among the youth.

For Massa, the runoff fight has emerged as a big challenge as he will have to get the majority of the votes to be elected. If the 23.8 per cent of the votes received by the conservative third candidate Patricia Bullrich is added, with the far right Milei, then he will have an easy victory. So Massa has to get votes from the conservatives also as also from the other sections of the Left represented by the Socialist Workers Party candidate Myriam Bregman.

While far right candidate Milei has proposed dollarizing the economy and closing down the central bank and opening up to the multinationals in key sectors of the economy, the ruling candidate Massa was sober in his approach underlining on the pro poor schemes and the subsidies for the low income group.. He admitted the lapses of the Peronist government in curbing the high inflation but assured that the ruling coalition will be taking suitable steps to control price rise after coming to power.

Milei, in a defiant speech after the result, said he would fight on to win in the second round next month.”We are faced with the most important election of the last 100 years,” he said. “If we work together we can win, if we work together we can recover our country.”

Massa has been a leading figure in the center-left administration in power since 2019. He successfully focused messaging on the way in which Milei’s proposal to slash the size of the state — from halving the number of government ministries to deep spending cuts — would affect everyday life for Argentines.

Andrei Roman, CEO of Brazil-based pollster Atlas Intel, whose latest survey was one of few showing Massa ahead, said one key to the result was lower abstention than in the primary elections held in August. Around 78% of the electorate voted Sunday, some eight points higher than in the primaries that Milei won, sending shockwaves through the nation.

Milei, a self-described anarcho-capitalist who admires former U.S. President Donald Trump, amassed a groundswell of support while calling for elimination of the Central Bank, replacement of the local currency with the U.S. dollar, and a purge of the establishment that he called the “political caste.”

Massa focused much of his firepower in the campaign’s final days on warning voters against backing Milei, painting him as a dangerous upstart. He argued that Milei’s plans could have devastating effects on social welfare programs, education and health care. The health, education and social development ministries are among those Milei wants to extinguish.

Milei also cast himself as a crusader against what he called the sinister forces of socialism at home and abroad. He opposes sex education, feminist policies and abortion, which is legal in Argentina. He rejects the notion that humans have had a role in causing climate change.

Argentina is a vast country located in the southern part of South America. The eighth largest country in the world, it is the second largest country in South America after Brazil, and it’s about one-third the size of the United States. Argentina is bordered by the Andes Mountains and Chile to the west.

To the east of the Andes, the interior of the country is flat, fertile grassland called the Pampas. The eastern border of the country is the Atlantic Ocean. Bolivia is to the northwest and Paraguay is to the north. The high mountain spine of the Andes, called the Andes Cordillera, creates a natural 3,195-mile (5,141.9-kilometer) border with Chile.

The country is divided into four regions: The Andes, the North, the Pampas, and Patagonia. The Pampas is the agricultural heartland. The country is a federal republic. There have been several democratically elected presidents after many years of political turmoil.

The National Congress is made of the Senate with 72 seats and the Chamber of Deputies with a total of 257 seats. There are seven judges in the Supreme Court, but that number will be reduced to five over the next few years. The president picks the judges and the senate must approve their appointments.

For the Latin American progressives, the victory of the ruling coalition candidate Sergio Massa in run off on November 19 is of crucial significance. Only on October 15, in the presidential elections, the left wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez was defeated by the right candidate. If the centre left can retain the presidency on November 19 elections, that will give a big boost to the Left wing forces of the region. Already Mexico and Brazil are headed by left wing presidents. Argentina is the second largest country in this trio. (IPA Service)

The post Peronist Sergio Massa Emerges Number One In Presidential Elections In Argentina first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Peronist Sergio Massa Emerges Number One In Presidential Elections In Argentina appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

Ecuador belonging to the Latin American continent is witnessing its run off Presidential elections on October 15, Sunday culminating in a fierce poll campaign marked by jail killings, car bombings, shootings and a widespread security crisis involving the common citizens. The Left wing Presidential nominee Luisa Gonzalez who entered the runoff campaign as the frontrunner after the first Presidential elections, is currently behind his young opponent Daniel Noboa by about seven points in opinion polls. Only a last minute miracle can ensure the victory of Gonzalez who belongs to the party of the former President Rafael Correa.

Gonzalez has adequate experience in governmental functioning being an active member of the core group attached to Correa during his presidential years for a decade. She mentioned in her campaign of the success of the anti poverty programmes carried out during Correa regime that helped in bringing 32 per cent of the poor above the poverty line. She also emphasized on the facilities provided by the earlier regime for education and healthcare. But her thrust of the campaign was combated by her challenger, absolutely new in politics Noboa who focused his campaign on the aspiring youth of Ecuador who constitute 30 per cent of the population. He assured to bring a new dawn in the lives of the unemployed by pursuing a novel strategy which will open up new opportunities for investment by both domestic and foreign companies leading to the generation of jobs.

In the days before the runoff election, Ecuador experienced several significant political developments, starting with the assassination of seven suspects linked to the killing of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in two Ecuadorian prisons. The jail killings were followed by an alleged testimony from a survivor of one of the attacks implicating Gonzalez’s party in the assassination of Villavicencio. While these allegations are still under investigation, they may influence public opinion in the lead-up to Sunday’s vote. Gonzalez has totally denied the allegations by mentioning that her party supporters had nothing to do with the killings and the wild allegations are being spread by the supporters of the rival presidential candidate. The killings issue is being publicized by the anti-Left media in Ecuador. Presidential candidate Noboa is getting advantage from this propaganda against his competitor Gonzalez.

Noboa’s rise in Ecuadorian politics as a newcomer and the youngest presidential candidate in Ecuador’s history is linked to the despair pervading the middle class in Ecuador about the failure of the politicians in tackling the burning issues of the day, especially security of the citizens. Noboa’s vision for Ecuador is portrayed as forward-looking, with a focus on three main areas: addressing the security crisis, creating employment opportunities for the youth, and improving healthcare access. His proposals include creating isolated maritime maximum-security prisons to alleviate the jail crisis, which has resulted in more than eighteen massacres in 2023 alone; the creation of a centralized intelligence unit to encourage efficient information sharing; and increased access and use of technology, such as drones and advanced military equipment to combat organized crime.

Regarding employment, Noboa’s campaign has focused on connecting with students in the attempt to comprehend their challenges, with employment being the leading preoccupation of many. He has proposed a plan of “educating to employ” to facilitate their transition into the job market while providing tax incentives to companies that hire university graduates. Access to healthcare and medicine shortages is a concern as well, and Noboa has pledged to address these limitations by institutionalizing and upscaling the country’s system of medical brigades.

Political analysts of Latin America have noted on this issue of employment generation in Ecuador which is in a state of crisis in the area of generating new jobs for the aspiring youth, Gonzalez is lacking. Her approach is based on incentives and is not meeting the aspirations of the educated youth of Ecuador who are looking for all the facilities available in the first world. According to one report, in the last two weeks, the shift in opinion poll in favour of Noboa was due to his espousal of new employment strategy which clicked with the new generation.

Daniel Noboa has taken a very pragmatic position to consolidate anti left votes along with the votes of the right wingers who are opposed to the present president Guillermo Lasso. That way Noboa is projecting himself as a young modern political personality who has no fixed dogma but who works for what is best for Ecuador. It is different from a conventional right wing strategy and that is what is worrying the Ecuadorian left.

Noboa is also in agreement with his rival Gonzalez on issues related to climate change, environmental protection, and sustainability. This is an area in which Ecuador has pioneered in the last couple of years through its historic debt for nature swap, the expansion of its marine reserve and its Amazon conservation efforts. The earlier left wing president Rafael Correa also underlined on Amazon conservation efforts. In the recent period, Brazilian president Lula has taken prominent lead in focusing on the need for protecting Amazon forests.

Rafael Correa is still acting as the mentor of his leftwing party and he is expected to return to Ecuador if Gonzalez wins presidency. If elected, she has promised to use $2.5bn from international reserves to shore up the struggling economy and bring back social programmes implemented under Correa, who has since been convicted of corruption. “We will take control of the country. It is the time to lift up the homeland with dignity,” she said in the course of campaign

Current president Guillermo Lasso was elected in 2021 presidential elections in a run off on April 11 by narrowly defeating the left wing candidate Andres Arauz who was a follower of Correa. Lasso dissolved the national assembly in May this year ordering snap elections following a constitutional crisis. Lasso nor anyone from his conservative CREO party is participating in the elections. (IPA Service)

The post Ecuador’s Presidential Poll Runoff On October 15 Is Going To Be A Game Changer first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Ecuador’s Presidential Poll Runoff On October 15 Is Going To Be A Game Changer appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

Is US President’s son Hunter Biden putting pressure on the US administration to tighten noose around the Bangladesh government headed by the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to pursue the agenda of the ruling Awami League’s rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) before the general elections scheduled early next year?

The issue has assumed immense importance as lot of emails conversations reveal that Hunter Biden, a known lobbyist is working for a firm which has been hired by the BNP to prop their agenda to unseat the Awami League in the coming elections.

For several years, Hunter Biden has connections with a consulting-cum-lobbyist firm named Blue Star Strategies, which had earlier registered its work for the Ukrainian company Burisma under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Through the same company Hunter Biden also crafted a plan to lobby the State Department on behalf of the Chinese private equity firm BHR Partners. Now Biden’s connections with Blue Star Strategies are being used by its client in Bangladesh BNP to create a political environment unfriendly to the Sheikh Hasina Government before the elections.

It is a common knowledge in Dacca that the western nations, especially the USA have been taking a hostile attitude towards the ruling Awami League and keeping close contacts with the rival BNP. The general complaint is that the coming general elections will not be held free and fair. In the last few months, lot of directives have been issued by the US regarding the issue of visa as per a new criteria under which politicians, journalists and other eminent persons known for uncaring to the human rights and democracy, will be denied visa. Further, a number of delegations have visited Bangladesh to monitor the political situation to report whether the environment is free and fair.

Hasina Government is also under US scanner for its bonhomie with the Chinese government in the recent months and this has to do with the US pressure on Bangladesh to take a pro US instance in a respect of the US move for presence in the maritime are a close to Bangladesh. All the pressures are being simultaneously put as the Awami League is desperately dealing with the people’s resentment against price rise of essential commodities.

According to the Arabian Post newspaper report, the BNP hired US lobbyist firms Akin Company Associates, Blue Star Strategies and Rasky Partners while Jamaat signed agreements with an organization named peace and Justice. The report mentions that on January 17, 2022, Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs M Shahriar Alam told reporters that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has spent US$3.75 million for a US lobbyist firm as part of their anti-Bangladesh campaign.

According to information obtained by the Arabian Post, Blue Star Strategies was hired by BNP through Abdus Sattar, an UK-based leader of the party in August 2018. Agendas behind appointing Blue Star Strategies by BNP were to “promote the goals of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for the upcoming general elections in Bangladesh”. In addition, Blue Star Strategies also developed a strategy “that educates officials, policy influencers and the media [in the United States] about the BNP and its interests in free and fair elections” and drafted a “narrative to communicate the BNP’s goals”.

The contract was signed by Abdus Sattar as an individual – but the documentation suggests that he was acting on behalf of the BNP. In the section of the form which states that the name of the “foreign principal” was Abdul Sattar, it is confirmed that he is a “foreign political party”, meaning, Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

In addition, in the section of submitted documentation asking for details “if the foreign principal is a foreign political party”, Blue Star Strategies stated: “Bangladesh Nationalist Party, 28, 1 VIP Rd, Dhaka 1205, Bangladesh”.

The documents confirmed that there were payments made to Blue Star Strategies which totalled at least US$278,582 over a two-year period. An amount of US$10,000 was paid to Blue Star Strategies in August 2018, another payment of US$197,790 in September 2018 and US$70,792 between March to September 2019.

While BNP had been frantically trying to hire Hunter Biden as its lobbyist, it finally succeeded in reaching an agreement with him through William B Milam. Milam is an influential figure of the Democratic Party and a retired diplomat who runs an organization named ‘Right to Freedom’ jointly with an individual named Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey – a former Assistant Press Secretary of the then Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey, a diehard anti-India and anti-Hindu individual with affiliations with jihadist groups and Pakistani spy agency has been making frantic bids with the direct collaboration of William B Milam in pushing the United Nations as well as the US Department of State in unseating Awami League government through various processes. Earlier the duo pursued the United Nations as well as the US Department of State in bringing more politicians and civil-military officials from Bangladesh under fresher sanctions using Global Magnitsky Act.

It may be mentioned here that, on October 27, 2020, at the persuasions of William B Milam and Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey, ten US Senators sent a letter to the then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin calling for sanctions against RAB officials. In the United Kingdom, the Guernica 37 Chambers law offices made a formal submission to the British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in August 2021 recommending sanctions for 15 current and former senior RAB officers.

On August 31, 2021, the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission held a virtual hearing on enforced disappearances in Bangladesh where several witnesses suggested taking punitive action. Bangladesh Foreign Ministry was not apprised of the case of letters sent by the US Senators, as it was later alleged that the Bangladesh High Commissioner in Washington DC was actually a former leader of BNP’s student wing.

As per the Arabian Post report, the son of US President Joe Biden has been assigned to accomplish three goals – to obstruct Awami League from holding the next general election without participation of BNP; to exert pressure on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in holding the next general election under direct supervision of Washington; and to stop import of goods from Bangladesh if the next general election is held without BNP. It was also learnt from sources that at the request of Muhammad Yunus, Hillary Clinton also has been trying to influence US President Joe Biden through a number of key officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

In addition to its ongoing lobbyist efforts and recent arrangements with Hunter Biden, Bangladesh Nationalist Party has hired a New York-based PR firm in running full-page ads for consecutive five days in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal with “appeal” of obstructing the general election in Bangladesh, once the ruling Awami League moves ahead with the election and schedule of it is announced.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party also is looking for hiring journalists and columnists in a number of major publications in the US, while Tarique Rahman plans to do similar propaganda in a number of major newspapers in Britain. For such propaganda efforts, BNP has been building a huge fund with contributions from wealthy leaders of the party as well as Jamaat-e-Islami, while family members of executed or convicted war criminals would also contribute to it.

Indian government officials must be in known of all these developments at the instance of the US. Modi government should show gumption to warn President Biden that India will not tolerate its unwarranted intervention in favour of BNP. If the Indian Prime Minister feels the moral urge to standby Israel against the terror attacks by Hamas, it is equally imperative that India should ensure that the BNP, which includes many killers of Sheikh Mujibar Rahman, is not allowed to play its nefarious game before the Bangladesh elections with US support. (IPA Service)

The post Is Hunter Biden Influencing Washington’s Decisions Targeting Awami League Govt? first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Is Hunter Biden Influencing Washington’s Decisions Targeting Awami League Govt? appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Satyaki Chakraborty

The continuing raids by the central agencies in the last five days against the opposition leaders, journalists and the human rights activists in the country is a signal that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Sangh Parivar are getting panicky after the announcement of the state caste census findings in Bihar by the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the demand by the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi that this caste census should be taken on a national scale.

All the calculations so far made by the BJP think tank and the Lok Sabha elections war room experts of the ruling party have gone haywire after this. The findings of the opinion polls in the poll bound states carried by the BJP internally, are not showing encouraging in the midst of acute in fighting in the three Hindi speaking states- Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Prime Minister has been attacking the INDIA constituents, especially the Congress using most abusive language. The BJP high command looks clueless in respect of meeting the new challenge which INDIA partners have posed to the Congress on caste census in the Hindi belt which is considered as the strongest base for the BJP.

The election commission is already with the preparations for holding polls to the five states. Any time, the official announcement can be made. It is probable that the assembly polls will be held by the end of November.. Naturally the Congress will be most busy about the nominations in these five states where the Congress matters most among the INDIA constituents in fighting the BJP. There is a view in the Congress high command that the Congress central leadership should start the state level discussions on alliances for the Lok Sabha polls only after the assembly results are out. This means only in early December. These leaders feel that the possible Congress win in the states polls will raise the power of the Congress in bargaining for seats for the Lok Sabha polls.

This approach of section of Congress leaders is wrong. This will adversely affect the preparedness of the INDIA constituents for fighting the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. BJP as the dominating party of NDA has little problem in deciding on the nominations, but the INDIA constituents have to carry state level talks in a number of states for a proper alliance and this process for Lok Sabha polls should start right now in the states where there is no assembly polls. The Congress Working Committee is expected to meet on Monday. The high command has to ensure that the directions are given to the state Congress units to start the process of negotiations with the other INDIA partners.

As of now, the Congress has started talks about alliance in Assam for Lok Sabha polls with Trinamool Congress. This is seen as a part of the Congress-TMC talks covering the three north eastern states Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur. Assam PCC president Ripun Bora had talks with the TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee and discussions were held on the seat sharing in the state. This was preliminary as the TMC has no member in Lok Sabha from Assam out of the total of 14 seats. Presently the BJP has got 9 seats, the Congress 3, the AIUDF one and another regional party one. Sources say that TMC wanted 2 seats out of 14 but finally if the Congress arrives at an understanding on alliance in Meghalaya and Manipur, the TMC may agree on one seat .. Meghalaya has two Lok Sabha seats and Manipur also two.

As of now, Out of 2 seats from Meghalaya, Congress has got one and the regional party NPP belonging to NDA has got one. The NPP heads the Meghalaya government which also includes BJP. In the last state assembly polls, a large number of Congress legislators defected to TMC and fought but still the Congress got more seats than the TMC. TMC wants a Lok Sabha seat from Meghalaya as a part of total understanding with the Congress in the NE region.

As regards Manipur, out of the two seats, BJP has got one and Naga People’s Front belonging to NDA one. In the context of the ongoing developments in Manipur, the Congress has to look for some regional allies also. Another INDIA constituent CPI had some solid pockets in Manipur. Once, the party had also a member in Lok Sabha from Manipur. In the last assembly poll, the Congress had an understanding with the CPI. The Congress high command has to see how the present anti-BJP feeling in the state can be taken advantage of in association with the aggrieved regional forces and then to convert that in Lok Sabha polls in favour of INDIA.

In Mizoram, the state assembly poll is due in November this year. The Congress is the only active INDIA constituent in the state. So the party will be busy with the assembly poll campaign. Mizoram has got one Lok Sabha seat. Presently that is with the ruling Mizo National Front. Nagaland has got one Lok Sabha seat. That is with the NDPP of NDA. In Arunachal, there are two Lok Sabha seats, all with the BJP. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma is the convenor of NDA in NE region. He is a very effective organizer for BJP. The Congress lacks such a politician in the region. Former Chief Minister of Assam Tarun Gogoi was very effective during his active political life. The Congress must look for such a leader for looking after the region. With 25 Lok Sabha seats..

Tripura is the only state in the NE region where the CPI(M) is the main INDIA constituent. The Congress high command has to initiate talks with both the CPI(M) and TIPRA MOTHA for a total understanding for the Lok Sabha elections.. BJP has now both the Lok Sabha seats. If such an understanding is reached, there is good possibility of the BJP losing both. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Communist Party of Chile, a coalition partner of the left wing government of the country headed by President Gabriel Boric took a major step in rejuvenating the party at its meeting on Sunday by electing the fire brand trade union leader Barbara Figueroa as the new general secretary of the Party replacing Lautaro Carmona who has been made as president of the Party.

The meeting of the central committee took place at a crucial time in the political life of Chile when the citizen of the country would be going for a new referendum on the constitution on December 17 this year. The victory of the left coalition in this referendum against the combined forces of the right is of crucial importance since the promised programmes of the Boric government will not be possible for implementation if the changes as proposed by the Left are not incorporated. Though Boric is the elected president, the national assembly is still dominated by the ant-left parties and the country is vertically split between the left and the right.

After her election as the new general secretary Barbara said that she was looking forward to the challenges of the job during the difficult times facing her country. She told her supporters that she was proud to become the party general secretary adding that the role brings with it a lot of responsibilities because of the current challenges facing the nation. Barbara was the Chilean ambassador to Argentina before this election. She resigned the post after her selection by the party leadership for the post of general secretary.

Figueroa was born in Santiago in April 1979 and joined the Communist Youth at the age of 15. She attended the Metropolitan University of Educational Sciences and became a leader in the College of Teachers. Following her graduation, she went on to become a high school teacher while pursuing her own graduate studies.

As a leader of the teachers’ union, she was involved in coordinating with protesting students during the mass mobilizations against neoliberalism in 2011—the demonstrations in which current Chilean President Gabriel Boric got his political start.

In 2012, she became the first woman elected as president of the Unitary Confederation of Workers (CUT), Chile’s main trade union federation. She was also the first woman to head a major union organization in all of Latin America.

In March 2022, Boric appointed her to become Chile’s ambassador to Argentina. At the time, he noted that it was “invaluable to have a union leader as our representative, the first woman in the history of our country to represent Chile in Argentina.”

Her appointment marked the first time since the Popular Unity government of Salvador Allende that the Communist Party had been asked to take on such an important diplomatic mission. At that time, famed artist and party member Pablo Neruda was sent to the embassy in Paris, France.

Barbara has taken over as the CPC general secretary at a time when the country is observing programmes on the fifty years of the September 11 coup organized by the army led by General Pinochet. Over thirty years after the end of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990, the government of Chile has formally admitted this year responsibility for the disappearance, and presumed deaths, of over two thousand individuals at the hands of the Chilean military and associated paramilitary groups. The government has also committed to searching for and identifying those whose fates remain officially unknown, numbering over a thousand.

This move marks a major shift for the government, which until now has either ignored the fate of the disappeared or treated them like events from a tragic — and hopefully forgotten — past. Acknowledging the disappeared will go some way toward bringing these victims and their families some closure and justice. The Boric government decision has been welcomed by the families of thousands of Chileans whose family members are still not traceable. The issue has emerged as assort of big movement. Simultaneously, some fr right organisations are also campaigning in favour of the dictator Pinochet. So an atmosphere of confrontation is there in the present Chile. Barbara as the new CPC head will have to help in giving proper direction to the coalition. President Boric has big confidence in her expertise.

For Boric and his Apruebo Dignidad coalition, this is the completion of a long-standing promise to the victims of the dictatorship, fulfilling a commitment to begin to reconcile the legacy of the military government with Chile’s democratic present. But that task will not be an easy one to complete. Barbara is expected to use her oratorical power and organizing skills in popularizing the programmes of the Boric government. The other members of the left coalition are also happy that they have an able leader now who can help in navigating the coalition through this difficult period. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Just four days after the holding of the G 20 summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 this year, the G77+ China held its historic summit in Havana on September 15 and 16 and came out with its Havana Declaration which was an unequivocal charter of action for the Global South for working on a new International Economic Order. The summit was the largest event of the countries of the Global South within the United Nations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted the G20 summit and the Government of India as also the ruling party BJP went the wholehog by claiming that the Summit was a tremendous success. Indian PM worked hard for bringing consensus on the Delhi Declaration and it goes to his credit that finally, an unanimous statement was possible. Another positive thing was the admission of the African Union as the new member of the G-20. Next year at the summit in Brazil, it will be G 21.

But whatever gains India made at the Delhi summit , especially the inclusion of the AU as the new member, lost its impact by the time the Havana summit of G-77+ China attended by more than one hundred countries ended on September 16. India was not represented neither by the Prime Minister nor the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. A senior official of the EAM represented India at the high profile summit which was attended mostly by the head of the states PM was supposed to be busy preparing for the Special session of Parliament, but what about the Foreign Minister? He could have attended the summit and still could have comfortably been present at the Special session which began on September18.

The net result was that the impression gained ground among the African and the Latin American countries that India which pioneered the non aligned movement and gave direction to G77 in earlier, has lost interest in the future of this grouping and is now focusing more on improving relations with the western nations like USA,UK, and others. Indian PM or EAM could have met with the new generation of head of states who have taken over in some of the Latin American countries promising a bright future for their people. Colombian president Gustavo Pero was there while the Brazilian president Lula da Silva took a leading part in the deliberations.

The Havana declaration says “We stress the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the international financial architecture and a more inclusive and coordinated approach to global financial governance, with greater emphasis on cooperation between countries, notably by increasing the representation of developing countries in global decision-making and policy-making bodies that will contribute to increasing the capacities of developing countries to access and develop science, technology and innovation”. The text also criticizes digital monopolies and other unfair practices that hinder the technological development of the developing countries.

The Declaration also attacks “sanctions” and “coercive economic actions” against developing countries. “We emphasize that such actions not only undermine the principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter and international law, but also seriously impede the advancement of science, technology and innovation and the full realization of economic and social development, particularly in developing countries.”

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stressed at the opening of the summit that one of the aims of the event was to seek common positions so that the countries of the Global South could take their demands to other international forums. On the same day, UN Secretary-General António Guterres pointed out that “global systems and structures have failed” the countries of the Global South.

President Lula on September 16 criticized the sanctions imposed by the United States against Cuba, defended the reformulation of the global governance system and also questioned technology companies. “It is particularly significant that, at this time of great geopolitical transformations, this summit is being held here in Havana. Cuba has been an advocate of fairer global governance and is even the victim of an illegal economic embargo. Brazil is against any unilateral coercive measure. We reject Cuba’s inclusion on the list of states that sponsor terrorism,” said the Brazilian head of state.

At the start of his inaugural speech, the Cuban president emphasized the importance of the group, which currently has 134 members: “Today we are two-thirds of the UN’s members, home to 80% of the world’s population,” he said.

Díaz-Canel also paid tribute to former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, recalling that he used to say that “we presidents go from summit to summit, while the peoples go from abyss to abyss.” He called for joint efforts to coordinate joint actions between the countries of the global South in order to “change the rules of the game” and achieve the “pending democratization of the system of international relations”.

“It is the peoples of the South who suffer most from poverty, hunger, misery, deaths from curable diseases, illiteracy, human displacement and other consequences of underdevelopment,” said Díaz-Canel. He described the international economic order as “unjust and ecologically unsustainable”.

Díaz-Canel questioned the international patent system and made a special complaint about international military spending and the irrationality of the fact that these resources cannot be used to improve the living conditions of the majority. “Estimates indicate that 9% of world military spending could finance adaptation to climate change in 10 years, and 7% would be enough to cover the cost of universal vaccination against the pandemic,” he estimated.

In the opening speech of UN Secretary General Guterres, he started by saying that the countries of the Global South are “caught in a web of global crises”.“Poverty is increasing and hunger is growing. Prices are rising, debt is exorbitant and climate disasters are becoming more frequent,” said Guterres. “Global systems and structures have failed them,” adding that “the conclusion is clear: the world is failing developing countries.”

The UN Secretary-General noted that in recent decades, the G77 countries and China “have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and have come together in the United Nations in search of global solutions and solidarity.”

“To change this, we need action at the national level to ensure good governance, mobilize resources, and prioritize sustainable development. And we need action at the global level that respects national ownership, with the aim of building an international system that defends human rights and looks after the common interest,” he said. In this sense, Guterres recognized that “many current global institutions reflect a bygone era.” He highlighted the need to update the UN Security Council, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

The G77+ China summit has assumed special importance in view of the move by the Let leaning Latin American governments to collaborate effectively for bringing synergy in the utilization of their natural resources. Mexico and Brazil are the leading countries pioneering this move and now Columbia, Honduras and Chile have joined the move with full efforts. These Latin American nations are looking to replace their existing developers from the western countries. India has got the appropriate technology to assist the developmental programme of these LA nations. That way, India lost a good opportunity for economic interaction. It is imperative that the Indian policy makers give due attention to the building better relationship with the G77 nations. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The victory of the Trinamool Congress candidate Prof. Nirmal Chandra Roy at the Dhupguri assembly constituency by poll in Bengal by defeating the BJP candidate Smt. Tapashi Roy by around 4,000 votes, vindicates TMC supremo Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s claim that the TMC is the main INDIA alliance party in Bengal and TMC will be deciding the seat sharing formula for 2024 Lok Sabha elections as the prime anti-BJP party in the state.

The by election was held on September 5 along with six other constituencies in other states, following the death of the BJP MLA Bishnupada Roy who won the seat in 2021 assembly polls. He won the seat by around 4, 000 votes defeating the TMC candidate. Dhupguri belongs to the Jalpaiguri district in North Bengal which is the bastion of BJP. In both 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP did exceedingly well in this district as also in the region as a whole

For BJP, the by poll was the last testing ground before the coming Lok Sabha elections. The party gave nomination to the wife of Pulwama attack martyr who belonged to that area, to get sympathy votes. Apart, the entire BJP state leadership was involved in campaigning in the last two weeks. But still, the BJP lost the seat sending signals that the BJP’s support base in its so called bastion is eroding fast and in the next seven months, TMC will cover up the gap more making it difficult for the BJP to retain even one third of the existing Lok Sabha seats from North Bengal.

As regards, the two India constituents CPI(M) and the Congress which fought in alliance against both the BJP and the TMC, the political scenario is far grimmer. The CPI(M) candidate Ishwar Chandra Roy lost his deposit by just getting 6.52 per cent of the votes as against 46 per cent by the TMC winning candidate and 44 per cent by the defeated BJP candidate. What is pathetic for the CPI(M) is that its nominee’s total left plus Congress votes were around 12 per cent in the panchayat elections in Dhupguri just two months ago on July 8 this year. This means that instead of increasing, the votes of Left-Congress alliance nosedived to about half of the votes received by the combine in the panchayat polls.

What do all these signify for the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April/May 2024. At the last meeting of the opposition parties in Mumbai on August 31 and September 1, the joint statement mentioned of the resolve of the INDIA constituents to work on one on one formula as far as possible. It is now decided that the talks will start at the state level and the INDIA alliance high command will be involved only when the state leaders of the constituent parties fail to arrive at an understanding on the seat sharing.

Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats, presently 23 belonging to the TMC, 17 to the BJP and only two to the Congress. The Left Front got no seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. After that in the Asansol Lok Sabha by poll following the resignation of the member Babul Supriya from BJP, the CPI(M ) candidate lost heavily against the TMC candidate SatrughnaSinha.BJP candidate stood second. Since then, there has been no by election in Bengal in any Lok Sabha constituency.

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got its highest vote share ever in Bengal at 40.32 per cent. But in July 2023, eight months before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP vote share in rural polls went down to 22.88 per cent, as against 51.2 per cent of the Trinamool Congress. There has been a steep decline down the line, covering all strongholds till 2021 assembly polls, including the constituency of three BJP central ministers. This development has ominous signal for the BJP’s performance in 2024 polls. Dhupguri by poll result has only confirmed the trend.

Taking the coming battle for Lok Sabha elections in view, the results of the rural polls as also Dhupguri by poll are nothing but disaster for the BJP. Home Minister Amit Shah held a top-level meeting in Kolkata two months back with the senior leaders and set a target of 35 seats as against the present 17. Nobody believed in the 35 seats possibility, but serious discussions took place about maintaining the present figure 17. Then, at the level of the central leaders, the target came down to 12 as they took into account the organisational capacity of the state BJP at the booth level. Now, sources say, that the final tally of BJP may not cross six in 2024 polls if there is no massive resurgence in BJP preparations.

Now, both the state BJP and the central leadership have started reviewing the results and it is found that there is not a single safe seat for the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls in Bengal. All the 17 seats are within winning distance of the Trinamool Congress. The BJP could not mobilise cadres in all the booths in the panchayat polls despite tall assurances given to the Home Minister. The reason was not TMC terror, but the absence of the requisite number of party workers.

As regards the CPI(M) and the Congress, there was some improvement in their vote share in July polls.. In 2023 rural polls, the Left Front, mainly the CPI(M), got 13.69 per cent votes and the Congress got 6.42 per cent. So together, the Left-Congress combine got 20.11 per cent. This was much better compared to the vote share figure of the CPI(M) at 4.71per cent and the Congress at 3.03 per cent in the 2021 assembly polls. That way, the CPI(M) vote share increased by 8 per cent as a whole in the panchayat areas of the state. . But within two months, Dhupguri by poll brought the total figure down to 6.52 per cent

In the backdrop of the panchayat elections on July8 and Dhupguri by poll early this week, TMC is advantageously placed in INDIA Alliance and set to dictate terms once seat sharing talks take place. There are seven political parties, partners of INDIA alliance are involved in Lok Sabha polls. They are TMC, Congress, CPI(M0, CPI, Forward Bloc, RSP and the CPI(ML) Liberation The Left Front in Bengal led by the CPI(M) has got three other partners CPI, FB and RSP. These four parties of the LF generally abide by the CPI(M) diktat. The CPI(M) is opposed to any alliance with the TMC in Bengal for the Lok Sabha elections even if the Congress changes its present position later.

Indications suggest that the high level coordination committee of the INDIA alliance may meet in New Delhi at Sharad Pawar’s house on September 13 to take forward the issues of seat sharing talks and joint campaign. TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee is a member of this coordination committee. He may suggest the constituent parties in Bengal should immediately initiate the process of discussion. Mamata will be out of the country from September 12 to 19. Sources say that Mamata wants the Congress to make the party’s position clear on the issue of alliance in Bengal by this month end. The Congress high command has made some preliminary assessment on the Party’s position on alliance with TMC. The draft will be given to Rahul Gandhi after he is back from Europe next week. Things will move fast in Bengal politics after Mamata is back from her tour abroad. For the moment, it is advantage Mamata, Congress is in middle position while the CPI(M) is in back foot. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Latin America created a history on Sunday, August 20 when the left wing candidates swept the Presidential elections in two countries Guatemala and Ecuador by defeating the right wing and the establishment candidates. Guatemalan anti-corruption crusader Bernardo Arevalo was voted as president by getting 58 percent of the votes polled while in Ecuador, the protege of former left wing president. Rafael Correa, Luisa Gonzalez got first position in the first round by securing 33 per cent votes as against the nearest rival’s 24 per cent votes. Gonzalez will be contesting in the run-off on October 15.

Arevalo, a 64-year-old ex-diplomat and son of a former president, had a 58% to 37% lead over former first lady Sandra Torres with 99% of votes counted. His victory comes as violence and food insecurity roil the country, triggering fresh waves of migration. Guatemalans now represent the largest number of Central Americans seeking to enter the United States. Guatemala had always witnessed right wing coups whenever progressives got strength. The unambiguous verdict given by the voters on Sunday in a comparatively peaceful elections, boosted the morale of the Latin American Left in the continent.

Arevalo has vowed to “purge institutions co-opted by the corrupt” and to get people committed to what he calls the fight for justice to return to Guatemala after scores of prosecutors, judges and journalists fled the country. He faces blowback from entrenched interests and a Congress which his party does not control. “This victory belongs to the people of Guatemala and now, united as the Guatemalan people, we will fight against corruption,” Arevalo told a news conference after his victory.

President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated Arevalo on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, and invited him to start an “ordered transition” once results were formalized. The new president takes over on January .14 next year. Arevalo is the son of former president who brought about big changes in land distribution and rights for indigenous during his rule in 1950s. Guatemalan people are lookin forward with hope towards a regime which will work for the welfare of the poor and fight drug trafficking and corruption.

Arevalo unexpectedly emerged out of political obscurity to build a large anti-graft movement with his Semilla party, after many other opposition candidates were barred from running. His victory marks a repudiation of Guatemala’s established political parties that wield huge influence. Arevalo’s Semilla party is a coalition of anti right parties and movements and has got the support of Guatemalan Communist Party.

Beyond his anti-graft policies, Arevalo said he wants to expand relations with China alongside Guatemala’s longstanding allegiance with Taiwan. How he plans to do that remains to be seen, given China’s policy that no country it has ties with, can maintain separate diplomatic relations with Taipei. This year, Honduras became the latest country in the region to switch allegiance from Taiwan to China.

In Ecuador, the Leftist frontrunner Luisa Gonzalez looked set to take on a surprise candidate, the youthful son of one of Ecuador’s richest men, in a run-off election on October 15 this year. . Gonzalez, a lawyer close to former socialist president Rafael Correa, was leading with 33 percent of the vote, as 80 percent of the vote was counted.

President of the National Electoral Council Diana Atamaint said results showed no candidate had hit the threshold to win outright, after a tense day of voting under heavy security. “We are heading to a second round election on October 15,” she told journalists.

Gonzalez will likely go head to head with Daniel Noboa, 35, who had 24 percent of the vote despite not figuring as a favorite in opinion polls ahead of a chaotic election marred by the assassination of a serious contender.

“We are making history,” Gonzalez said, hailing her “triumph” in the first round. Noboa, said the “youth” had chosen him to beat Correa’s party. The run-off election is set for October 15, and the stakes are high in a once-peaceful nation engulfed by drug violence.

The small South American country has in recent years become a playground for foreign drug mafias seeking to export cocaine from its shores, stirring up a brutal war between local gangs. The murder of serious presidential contender Fernando Villavicencio on the campaign trail just 11 days before the vote underscored the challenges facing the country.

Gonzalez, who sees herself as a defender of Correa’s socialist legacy, had long been leading opinion polls, with Villavicencio second until his murder. She has said the former president Correa will be a close advisor if she is elected. Correa was sentenced to eight years in jail after an investigation by Villavicencio into corruption, and fled to Belgium where he has been living in exile for six years. Villavicencio was replaced at the last minute by a close friend and another journalist, Christian Zurita, who came in third with 16 percent of votes. If Gonzalez wins presidency in runoff, Correa might return from exile just as Eve Morales returned to Bolivia after his left party won the presidency.

In Guatemala, President elect Arevalo has to consolidate the base of his party Semilla and prepare for take over on January 14, but in Ecuador, the left coalition has the task of expanding the support base of Luisa Gonzalez against the rightwing businessman. Daniel Noboa. Gonzalez has a good image and she has big support of the women. The left forces are confident that Ecuador also will be electing a pro people president on October 15 like Guatemalan people elected Arevalo on Sunday. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Just forty eight hours before the Presidential elections in strife torn Ecuador on August 20, opinion polls are favouring the Leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez as the leading one in the race as 13 million voters exercise their franchise on Sunday. Gonzalez is the only woman candidate among the eight Presidential candidates. She has the support of the former president Rafael Correa who ruled Ecuador for ten years bringing positive changes in the lives of the underprivileged people of this Latin American country.

As per the latest survey, Gonzalez got 29.3 per cent of the votes as against her next Yaku Perez at 14.4 per cent, Offo Sonnet loizener at 12.4 per cent and Jan Topic at 9.6 percent. As per the electoral rules of Ecuador, if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent or 40 per cent plus 10 points more than the nearest rival, there will be a runoff between the first two and the candidate with highest votes will be elected as the President..The runoff is scheduled for October 15 this year.

The snap elections were prompted by an unusual move from conservative President Guillermo Lasso, who became the first Ecuadorian leader to invoke “muertecruzada”, a constitutional measure that allowed him to dissolve the legislature and bring his term to an end. Lasso had been facing an impeachment proceeding, which he dismissed as politically motivated. But in the wake of his decision, candidates have stepped forward to replace him, pledging to fight crime and bolster the struggling economy.

Luisa Gonzalez, a protégé of former left-wing President Rafael Correa, held her closing event in Quito on Wednesday. “A firm hand against crime, against violence and against crime gangs, but a hand of solidarity and love for our people,” Gonzalez said at the Wednesday rally, in which Correa participated remotely from Mexico. Correa is still acting as the mentor of his left wing party and he is expected to return to Ecuador if Gonzalez wins presidency. Gonzalez was leading the polls ahead of Villavicencio’s murder, with about 30 percent support. If elected, she has promised to use $2.5bn from international reserves to shore up the struggling economy and bring back social programmes implemented under Correa, who has since been convicted of corruption. “We will take control of the country. It is the time to lift up the homeland with dignity,” she said at the rally.

Current president Guillermo Lasso was elected in 2021 presidential elections in a run off on April 11 by narrowly defeating the left wing candidate Andres Arauz who was a follower of Correa. Lasso dissolved the national assembly in May this year ordering snap elections following a constitutional crisis. Lasso nor anyone from his conservative CREO party is participating in the elections.

Former president Rafael Correa who was president for ten years from 2007 to 2017 was sentenced in 2020 for breaking company finance laws. Correa had denied the charges. He is living in Belgium in exile but he is having big influence on the activities of his supporters in Ecuador. Correa made lot of changes in favour of poor during his ten year rule. He still commands big respect from the electorate in this Latin American state.

In terms of voter concerns, insecurity is the top one, given that the country’s murder rate shot up 245 percent between 2020 and 2022. More than half of Ecuadorans polled said that fixing the country’s insecurity problem is their biggest priority. Only on August 9, the popular presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was shot dead at a campaign rally in Quito. He was very vocal against drug cartels and corruption. President Lasso also condemned the killing and said that organised crime was behind his killing.

Ecuador is located in the western corner at the top of the South American continent. Ecuador is named after the Equator, the imaginary line around the Earth that splits the country in two. Most of the country is in the Southern Hemisphere.

Ecuador is roughly the size of Colorado and is bordered by Colombia and Peru. The high Andes Mountains form the backbone of the country. Cotopaxi in the Andes is the highest active volcano in the world.

About 10 percent of the population is of European descent. Another 25 percent belong to indigenous or native cultures and the remainder are of mostly mixed ethnicity. Many of the native people are subsistence farmers and only grow enough food for their family. The leftwing candidate Gonzalez has a programme of giving rights and special assistance to the indigenous people.

Ecuador is considered one of the most diverse areas of the world. There are some 25,000 plant species, and over 1,600 known bird species. The search for oil has caused environmental devastation due to oil leaks and destruction of forests.

Ecuador has many geographical zones, including Andean peaks, tropical rainforests and – 1,000km (600 miles) off the coast – the volcanic Galapagos Islands, home to the animals and birds whose evolutionary adaptations shaped Charles Darwin’s theories.

In 2022, Ecuador was beset by rising gang violence linked to Mexican drug cartels, including shootings and car bombings. President Lasso declared a state of emergency in two regions and labelled such violent incidents “a declaration of open war”. Some analysts have suggested the country is on the edge of becoming a narco-state. . The assassination of one of the presidential candidates just before the August 20 elections is further confirmation of the terror of drug cartels in the country.

The coming presidential elections in Ecuador is being observed with keen interest by the other Latin American nations. In 2021 elections, the Left lost narrowly, since then the people’s discontent has risen against the Lasso regime. It is to be seen whether the presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez can inspire confidence among nearly 13 million electorate in favour of her programme for a corruption free pro people government. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

At long last, there is some ray of hope for the common people of the Central American nation Guatemala which will going for its run off national elections on August 20. In a surprise development, the centre left party Semilla candidate Bernardo Arevalo stood in the second position with 12 per cent votes in the first round on June 25 just slight below the far right candidate Sandra Torres who got 15 per cent. Now both of them will be fighting for the Presidential post in the final round.. There will be   elections    to 160   member chamber of deputies also.

Previous polls showed Arévalo led Semilla polling at below 3%, not even among the top seven candidates. But in the weeks preceding the first round, there were massive demonstrations by the people of all sections against the corrupt and anti-people policies of the present government. Arévalo will now be pitted against Sandra Torres, former first lady and now candidate of the right-wing UNE party (National Unity for Hope).

The right wing media and the ruling party have called the Semilla leader as a communist, he is not that,   but his party’s platform certainly represents a shift away from the right-wing status quo. Semilla’s policy promises are a direct challenge to the powers that have long ruled Guatemala. The party pledges to invest billions in public education and beef up public healthcare with the goal of eventually reaching universal coverage. Arevalo’s programmes are similar to the policies of the present Brazilian president Lula.

Arévalo also wants to establish diplomatic and economic ties with the People’s Republic of China. Guatemala is one of the few countries in the world that still recognizes the authorities in Taipei, Taiwan as the official government of all of China.. He is promising the government control over some of the key natural resources of Guatemala so as to bring down the power of the big multinational corporations belonging to the USA.  During   dictatorship as also later far right   regimes, Guatamela government followed   a foreign policy on lines   of US administration which the Semilla leader   certainly

Naturally, the big corporates and oligarchs are not sitting idle to allow Semilla to mobilise more support before the final round. They are doing everything possible to stop the momentum that has been   generated in the country after the June 25 elections. On July 1, Guatemala’s top court ordered the ballots from the first-round presidential elections to be reviewed at the request of several right-wing parties, including Torres’s UNE and the ruling party Vamos (Let’s Go).

Eventually, the Guatemalan TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) certified the results, but that didn’t stop the right-wing offensive. On July 12, Rafael Curruchiche, new head of the FECI (Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity) declared he was disqualifying Semilla for “supposed” fraud,

However, according to article 92 of the TSE, “no party can be suspended after the start of elections and until elections are over.” On July 13, the TSE refuted Curruchiche’s claims and suspended the order disqualifying Arévalo.

But further showing the ruling class’s disdain for democracy, the Public Ministry—in conservative hands—has yet to certify the results, informing the country that it will continue the investigation against Semilla for alleged “anomalies” during the election.

In response, thousands of Guatemalans continue protesting to demand the government fully certify the election results. For many, the events unfolding in Guatemala bring back tragic memories of past progressive advances and the reactionary response they garnered..  The   demand     for free and fair     elections     is  now    the battle  cry   of     the supporters   of Arevalo as the run off date    approaches.

Guatemala has a tumultuous history relating to the functioning of democracy in the last century. In 1944, a coalition of the urban and rural sectors of the working class ousted Dictator Jorge Ubico, who ruled from 1931 to 1944. These events are known as Guatemala’s “October Revolution” and ushered in the “Ten Years of Spring,” a period of democratic progress that stretched until 1954.

Juan Jose Arévalo, the father of Bernardo Arévalo, was elected president of Guatemala in the country’s first democratic elections. For six years, the PAR (Revolutionary Action Party) governed, overseeing a liberalization of politics and public life. The government enacted labor reforms that included the formation of the IGSS (Guatemalan Institute of Social Security) and a new constitution.

Arévalo called his philosophy of governance “spiritual socialism”. During his tenure 1.4 million acres of land had been expropriated from the foreign owners and domestic landlords and distributed. To more than 5 lakh landless belonging to mostly indigenous people.. The land distribution hit badly the US companies, especially the United Fruit Company. The US MNCs plotted with the domestic far right and brought down the government through the US intelligence agency CIA. The dictatorship of the far right began reversing all progressive reforms of the earlier era and this continued till the late nineties of the last century.

From 1996 to 2023, Guatemalan politics continued to be dominated by a conservative and comprador elite. On Sept. 15, 2015, after months of protest from the Guatemalan people, Otto Pérez Molina resigned as president after a warrant was issued for his arrest over a scheme that involved defrauding the country of millions of dollars. He also participated in the scorched earth military tactics of 1982-83 that led to the massacre of thousands of Indigenous people during the civil war.

That way, for the first time since 1954, the poor of Guatemala are looking at the August 20 elections with some hope as the son of that pro-poor Prime Minister of the last century is in the electoral fray again with a similar programme of land distribution and spread of health and education facilities among the underprivileged. All the social groups including the Guatemala Communist Party have extended their support of Arevalo in the presidential run off.

On July 13, 2023, the Indigenous socialist party MLP (Movement for the Liberation of the People) issued a statement calling for unity against the right-wing electoral fraud clearly unfolding in the country. The peasant union, CODECA, has also called for people to mobilize. The Indigenous ancestral leadership of the 48 Cantones of Totonicapán issued a declaration that same day that if the government doesn’t certify the election results, it would mobilize all the Indigenous peoples of Guatemala against the corrupt government.

On July 14, the Guatemalan communist party (PGT) issued a declaration saying that a victory for Semilla would represent a progressive shift away from the neoconservative policies of the right-wing dominated government. With this, the Communists also called for unity to defend the will of the people of Guatemala. Guatemalan communists took part in the guerrilla struggle along with other left wing groups in the last century .Their trade union activists are campaigning for the victory of Arevalo. More. More than three weeks are left for the run off but the tempo has reached its peak and many journalists are smelling a wind of change. But the big question still is will the right and the administration controlled by it allow a free and fair election on August 20?(IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

 Spanish voters finally gave a big rebuff to the Far Right People’s Party(PP) and the fascist VOX by denying them majority in the 350 member house of national assembly elections to which were held on Sunday, July23. Despite all opinion poll predictions about the defeat of the coalition government headed by Pedro Sanchez with participation of left Podemos including the Communist Party, the ruling PSOE and the left coalition Sumar did well putting them above the total tally of the far right formation.

Out of the 37 million voters, 70 per cent voted. Despite sweltering heat currently sweeping Spain. PP got 136 seats as against122 by the Sanchez’s Party PSOE while the fascist pro Franco VOX got 33 seats and the left coalition Sumar 31. What is significant that VOX was supposed to get more seats as per all predictions but the fascist party lost 19 seats as against the 2019 elections tally and this was possible due to the last minute campaign by the Communist leader Yolanda Diaz who is the head of the Sumar coalition.

Overall, the position is that the present coalition of Sanchez and the Left are having 172 seats while the far right bloc has got a total of 170 seats. Out of the remaining eight seats, Sanchez has the possibility of getting another four which will give the present ruling coalition a clear majority in the 350 member house. Sanchez has to seek the help of the Junte and ERC of Catalonia which have separatist agenda but they are more flexible to Left coalition as against the PP bloc which is totally against giving any concessions to the Catalonian separatists.

The new Parliament will be convened on August 17 and in these 24 days, the ruling coalition led by Pedro Sanchez will get time to negotiate with smaller parties. If he is not able to get another four members, still he can be allowe by the King to form the new government in view of heading the largest bloc. But Sanchez can again recommend fresh elections to end the instability of the new government.

Both Sanchez and the communists were elated at the results since the fascist VOX f lost heavily.“Spain and all its citizens who voted have been absolutely clear,” Sanchez told a jubilant crowd gathered at the Socialists’ headquarters in Madrid. “The backwards-looking bloc that wanted to roll back all the progress we made over the past four years has failed.” Though PP emerged as the leading party, its lead over PSOE was only 14 much less than what was projected in the opinion polls.

Sanchez in his campaign focused on warning about the danger of a PP-Vox government to mobilise the electorate. The strategy appears to have paid off, with turnout reaching almost 70 percent, some 3.5 percentage points higher than in 2019.Sumar head Diaz who was instrumental in preparing the electoral list for the coalition was also happy as her campaign was most successful in the areas dominated by the VOX and VOX lost heavily instead of garnering more seats. That sealed the fate of the PP-VOX bloc and far right hope of getting majority was rebuffed.

Alberto Feijoo, who took over as head of the PP in April 2022, had focused his campaign on promising to “overthrow Sanchismo” a derogative term for Sanchez’s policies.. In his remarks after the counting, the far right leader said he would push for the chance to form a government as the party with most seats. It is his duty to form the next government, he said.

The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) said before the election that it had no agreement with PP and Vox while Teruel Existe told El Pais it would not support such a coalition. That way Sanchez has more options for forming the government, but he has to be ready for tough bargaining on some of the issues which the ruling coalition has been opposing since long. It will be known next month whether there is a new coalition government in Spain or the country goes for another general elections for ensuring a stable government.

  For the European Left, the latest results in Spain elections have come as a big relief. The hype in media about the far right take over in Spain and the entry of the pro Franco fascists in the government for the first time since the establishment of democracy in 1975 after the death of dictator Franco, had created a big worry in the European socialist circles. Already, in other countries of Europe, Italy, Sweden, Finland and Greece, the right parties are ruling. In Portugal only, the Socialists are ruling and the Communist Party which was earlier supporting the Socialist Government, is now in opposition.

In France, the political situation is still fluid. The latest strikes in the immigrant dominated areas of Paris leading to clashes and deaths have united the trade unions. The far right party of Le Pen is campaigning for throwing out the immigrants but the Macron government is taking a soft policy as of now. In Britain only, all indications suggest the ruling Conservative Party is having its last days. The Tories lost in most of the by elections this year to Labour and the Liberals. The Labour is having a 20 per cent lead in opinion polls over the Tories. The national elections in Britain are due in 2024. The Left performance in Spain has finally given some breath of fresh air to the European Left. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The massive victory of the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in the panchayat polls in West Bengal has sent signals to all the national political parties — the BJP, the Congress and the CPI(M) — about its consequences on the politics of the state, as also the impact on the Lok Sabha elections scheduled in March-April 2024.

For the BJP, which has 18 seats in the present Lok Sabha out of the total of 42 seats in West Bengal, the rural poll results are devastating from the standpoint of the coming Lok Sabha polls. The party has lost its strongholds in North Bengal, the five districts of Junglemahal, as also Matua-dominated Bongaon and Ranaghat areas which returned most of its candidates in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and many of which elected the BJP candidates even in the 2021 assembly polls.

The BJP, as usual, is hiding behind  talk of ‘terror unleashed by the TMC cadres’, but even taking into account some contribution of strong-arm tactics by the ruling party workers in ten per cent of the seats, nothing explains the overall decline in BJP vote-share compared to both 2019 and 2021 polls. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got its highest vote share ever in Bengal, at 40.32 per cent. Though it went down to 37.97 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections, but still it was adequate as BJP emerged as the main opposition in the new assembly, with no representation from the once powerful CPI(M) and the Congress.

But now in July 2023, eight months before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP vote share in rural polls has gone down to 22.88 per cent, as against 51.2 per cent of the Trinamool Congress. There has been a 15 per cent decline down the line, covering all strongholds till 2021 assembly polls, including the constituency of three BJP central ministers. This development has ominous signal for the BJP’s performance in 2024 polls.

Taking the coming battle for Lok Sabha elections in view, the results of the rural polls are nothing but disaster for the BJP. Home Minister Amit Shah only last month held a top-level meeting in Kolkata with the senior leaders and set a target of 35 seats as against the present 18. Nobody believed in the 35 seats possibility, but serious discussions took place about maintaining the present figure 18. Then, at the level of the central leaders, the target came    down to 12 as they took into account the organisational capacity of the state BJP at the booth level.

Now, both the state BJP and the central leadership have started reviewing the results and it is found that there is not a single safe seat for the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls in Bengal. All the 18 seats are within winning distance of the Trinamool Congress. The BJP could not mobilise cadres in all the booths in the panchayat polls despite tall assurances given to the Home Minister last month. The reason was not TMC terror, but the absence of the requisite   number of party workers.

The saffrons are not left with any fresh issue, which can excite the Bengal citizens. The central leaders have to look after other states where they expect BJP to get seats. Those states will be more important for them in terms of campaign. The Bengal BJP leaders may have to fend for themselves for quite some time now till they can prove that they are in a winning distance.

As regards the CPI(M) and the Congress, there is some improvement in their vote share. In 2023 rural polls, the Left Front, mainly the CPI(M), got 13.69   per cent  votes and  the Congress got 6.42 per cent. So together, the Left-Congress combine got 20.11 per cent. This was much better compared to the vote share figure of the CPI(M) at 4.71per cent and the Congress at 3.03 per cent  in the 2021 assembly polls. That way, the CPI(M) vote share increased by 8 per cent.

But the paradox is that more the CPI(M) or the Congress gains in marginal areas, that helps   the Trinamool Congress candidates to win, because the main opposition candidate is BJP and that is the share of anti-Trinamool votes. For the CPI(M), the comfort is that the party supporters  votes which went to the BJP in 2019  Lok  Sabha polls, have started  to come back, but more it comes, the more it helps TMC as against the BJP.

So there is a big dilemma for the state leadership, this limited turnaround is helping the TMC as against the BJP. As a part of the national policy, this erosion in BJP influence is welcome to the state CPI(M),  but at ground level, this makes TMC more powerful. This dichotomy for the Left in Bengal will continue until is a big breakthrough organisationally when the CPI(M) is in a position    to replace the BJP as the main  opposition against the TMC. That is a long-term task and at the moment, the short-term possibility is nil.

For the Congress, the state party is equally at a loss. The grand old party had two members in Lok Sabha: Adhir Chowdhury from Berhampore and Abu Hasem Khan Chowdhury from Maldaha Dakshin. Both the seats are vulnerable, especially Adhir’s seat. The Congress is set   to lose both these seats even with the alliance with the Left if there is no real breakthrough, as the momentum is with the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee now.

Mamata is a shrewd politician with strong roots at the ground level. As the opposition leader who is working hard for uniting all anti-BJP parties on a one-on-one fight formula, she may give a surprise by hinting at giving Congress one or two seats in Lok Sabha polls as olive branch for national concessions. The Congress high command, especially Rahul Gandhi, may not agree since Rahul is more concerned with the long-term revival of the party.

The TMC is organising July 21 as the Martyrs Day in Kolkata as the party does every year. Mamata may announce the TMC target for Lok Sabha elections that day.  The slogan will be 42 in 42 and the campaign in the next eight months will focus on this. But TMC experts and political analysts have come to the figure of 36 as the minimum and 40 as the maximum for 2024 polls. The TMC organisation will be galvanised to achieve this objective to ensure  that TMC emerges as the second largest national opposition party after the Congress, playing a key role in post-Lok Sabha poll developments. For now, it is advantage Mamata. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

At long last, there is some ray of light in the politics of Spain as the fifteen political parties belonging to all shades including green and the extreme Left entered into a historic agreement to jointly fight the right wing parties including the far right VoX in the crucial national elections on July 23.The credit goes to the Spanish communist leader and the deputy prime minister Yolanda Diaz who made it possible through her new platform Sumar(Unite) through her ceaseless efforts for bringing unity of the entire Left to capture power by defeating the Right.

However, some, some leaders of Podemos, one of the biggest contingents of the Left were not happy as Diaz took a tough position while finalizing the electoral list by excluding some important leaders from the list including Podemos deputy leader Irene Monteno. Diaz is the most popular leader of the Left in Spain and her decision on the electoral list by excluding the discredited leaders of the Podemos, got wide acceptance by the Front partners. The Spanish communist leader made it clear that her list was the winning list and the Front should exclude those who fared badly in the May elections.

On June 9 afternoon, just hours before the midnight deadline to register the electoral coalition was set to pass, Podemos’s current leader Ione Belarra called a press conference in which she announced that her party would sign up to Sumar “without an [acceptable] agreement” because of “the threat” to otherwise be excluded from the joint lists. “I am saddened that Yolanda Díaz is proposing that the agreement between Sumar and Podemos be built on the exclusion of a colleague [Irene Montero] who has been the architect of a generation of feminist rights [in her role as equality minister],” Belarra added.

While Díaz and Montero had a poor working relationship and the Podemos number two made many enemies during recent years of splits and infighting on the Spanish left, her exclusion largely came down to a highly damaging controversy around the implementation of a new sexual consent law, which has seen hundreds of convicted rapists have their sentences reduced unintentionally. From Díaz’s perspective, Montero had become a liability that would have distracted from a campaign she wants to centre on her record as labour minister, as well as on Sumar’s program for a new social democratic project based on workers’ rights and social protection.

Under the joint electoral lists, Podemos has been reserved eight relatively safe seats, including fifth in the Madrid list for Belarra, fourth in Barcelona for its head of organization, Lilith Verstrynge, and first in Álava, Granada, Gipuzkoa, Las Palmas, Murcia, and Navarre. Díaz will top the symbolically important Madrid list, followed by Spain’s current United Nations ambassador, Agustín Santos Maraver, and two Más Madrid representatives in third and fourth place: the Spanish-Sahrawi activist Tesh Sidi and party founder Íñigo Errejón. The Communist-led Izquierda Unida, which has provided a significant part of the initial organizational muscle for Sumar, has received first place in the lists for the southern regions of Córdoba and Málaga, as well as in Tarragona, and second in Seville and third in Valencia.

Diaz was very confident of the Front’s electoral list. In fact, the list has got wide approval nationwide. She has asked all Sumar partners to start vigorous campaign for the national polls on the basis of the social justice programme. Diaz holds the labour portfolio and she has introduced many pro labour measures during her tenure to the satisfaction of the Spanish trade unions. A latest opinion poll of El Pais newspaper shows that there is a good possibility of the Left Front forming a progressive alliance government with Pedro Sanchez’s centre left Socialist Workers Party (PSOE).

Sergio Pascual, Podemos’s former head of organization, is also happy at the formation of the joint front to fight the July 23 elections. Otherwise, he says, the alternative is a hard-right, Popular Party (PP)–Vox government, which threatens democratic regression in Spain. Yet, , Pascual maintains that faced with such a threat, the Left must also be able to offer a positive vision for a new Spain, based on social justice and a new state interventionism.

According to the Podemos leader, beyond this immediate fallout, the agreement institutes a new balance between the distinct sensibilities that coexist on the Spanish left. Within this political space you have various nationalist and regional left formations (such as [Coalició] Compromís in Valencia, Más Madrid in the capital, or Los Comunes in Catalonia), the Eurocommunist left of Izquierda Unida, with its trade union tradition and revindication of labor struggles; a post-materialist left represented by Íñigo Errejón; and a combative, antiestablishment left represented by Podemos.

The Sumar agreement explicitly recognizes the pluralism of these distinct currents. It also looks to better represent their competing weight in the current political moment, which is quite distinct to that of eight years ago when Podemos made its initial breakthrough. In 2015, its combative rhetoric chimed with the times, and its hegemony was universally accepted. But in the post-pandemic moment, people are demanding greater certainty and a politics that offer solutions to their material concerns — which Yolanda’s distinct leadership style much better embodies.

Yet, in reality, Sumar’s success as a new political actor will not only be measured by its electoral result next month but also by its ability to then construct solid institutional structures going forward. It remains to be seen if it can outlast the current electoral cycle or if this coalition will simply implode at the first major setback. That’s the wider task for those who are in charge of Sumar: to make sure that this electoral agreement is not just an electoral agreement but becomes the basis to build a left-wing organization that can survive the highs and lows of electoral pressures and can institute greater internal democracy.

Right now, five weeks before the national elections, all focus is on the election campaign. There is a new enthusiasm and vigour in sight among the left supporters. The feeling has gained ground that the Left is winning and a real progressive coalition will be possible with PSOE on the basis of a solid pro- people programme. Just like Podemos founder Pablo Iglesias ignited the expectations of the Spanish youth eight years ago, Yalando Diaz, the most admired leader of the Spanish Communist Party is leading the Sumar campaign. She is emerging as the Prime Minister alternative in the minds of the Spanish people. Much will depend on the outcome of the July 23 election. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The indictment of former US president Donald trump by the Federal Grand Jury in Miami on June 8 has imparted a new dimension to the American political scene with the possibility of the right wing Republican mobilizing the warring groups as also the party support base in general in favour of his presidential bid against the president Joe Biden in 2024 elections.

Donald Trump has been indicted for a wide range of criminal felonies surrounding his illegal mishandling and retention of government documents, including secret and sensitive ones, at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Some of the documents he refused to give up were held in violation of the espionage act because they contained information the government says threatened the security of the United States.

The still sealed indictments for which Trump must surrender himself to the authorities in Miami next Tuesday involve seven counts, among them stealing documents that belong to the public, obstruction of justice, conspiracy, espionage, witness tampering and lying to the FBI. Each of the 7 counts is likely to include multiple charges, all of which come on top of his indictment in New York last month for 34 felonies including illegal attempts to influence an election with hush money payments to a porn star. Shortly after the New York indictments a jury also found him guilty of sexually attacking a woman in a New York department store.

If he is found guilty of only some of the serious crimes for which he is now indicted he would face many years in jail. If he wins the Republican nomination for the presidency he could be campaigning with an ankle bracelet attached to his body. But indications  are that Donald trump will turn his present crisis into a big opportunity and turn the presidential election into a sort of referendum in his favour campaigning how a leader who wants to make America great, has been humiliated on false  charges.

The Special Counsel has not yet filed charges related to Trump’s attempts to hold onto power after he lost the election, including the coup attempt and the attack on the Capitol. Never has a former or sitting U.S. president faced so many criminal charges. His use of the presidency to pile up wealth for himself and his family also involves criminal activity for which he is yet to be charged on any level. Next month he could well be indicted in Georgia, too, for criminal interference in the election. He tried to pressure the state to add votes he had not received to his totals so he could revers his loss in the state. In Georgia also the prosecutor is considering charges related to Trump’s scheme to line up false electors, denying the voters their real choice in the election.

If found guilty of that charge Trump will be in violation of the Espionage Act. The World War I-era Espionage Act treats such refusal, and willingness to give defence information to unauthorized people, as espionage. Defence documents do not have to be classified to make such mishandling, or even the threat of it, illegal.

The June 8 indictment marks the first time in U.S. history an ex-president has been indicted for federal crimes (his prior indictments are for state crimes), especially crimes against the government, and the first time since Richard Nixon, 49 years ago, that indictments were even considered against a president.

And this indictment isn’t the end of Trump’s legal troubles with the feds, even though it marks a major milestone in Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation of Trump’s offenses.

For Trump, his campaign plan is now clear. The indictment itself nor a conviction would prevent Trump from running for the Presidential elections and winning the presidency..A trial will take place many months from now. Trump will have no problem in continuing his election campaign.. If he can somehow win the presidential elections in November 2024, the road will be clear to him. As president, he has the powers to stop the proceedings as the justice department is under his authority.

Already, the declared contenders for the Republican presidential nomination Ron Desantis, Mike Pence and Nikki Haley have come out defending Trump and there is groundswell of support among the Republican supporters in favour of their former president. This political mood will act against the other contenders in the campaign and Trump will capitalize on it. Experts feel that Trump’s poll rating will in fact go up among the Republicans and this will have positive impact for Trump even in non-Republican base.

The Justice Department declined to unseal the Florida indictment, or discuss its specifics. It will be unsealed no later than Trump’s appearance for arraignment and a plea in U.S. District Court in Miami, scheduled for 3p.m. on June 13. But Trump and his attorneys received summaries.

Reading from the summary, Trump attorney Jim Trusty said the indictment also includes the lies Trump told to federal probers. And Trusty confirmed the espionage charge.

Trump has repeatedly denied taking federal documents—classified or otherwise–with him to Mar-a-Lago. But he’s also admitted doing so, indirectly. Trump claimed, after he left office, that he could unilaterally declassify any document, even in his head, thus implying he kept them. When Fox News host Sean Hannity tried to help bail him out by saying on national television, “You would never wilfully remove classified material and take it with you, would you?” Trump incredibly did not take the escape route Hannity was offering him and declared, “Of course I would. I have every right to do that, they belong to me.”

And federal documents appeared in pictures of the 2022 FBI search at Mar-a-Lago. Agents, armed with a warrant, found and photographed documents, many stamped “secret” or “sensitive,” scattered on the floor of an unsecured storage room. They then carted them away. Some 300 were classified.

Before that, Trump had waved one very sensitive military document, a U.S. war plan against Iran, while addressing a crowd at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club six months after leaving the White House. Trump’s speech was filmed. Smith reportedly has the film.

And Trump obstructed justice by blocking the government’s efforts to reclaim those documents, the indictment summary said. The documents were finally recovered when the FBI, at National Archives request, got a subpoena to enter Mar-a-Lago for them. Trump also illegally conspired to move the documents to prevent their recovery by government officials, the summary says.

Indictment of Trump is an historical milestone for the U.S.: The first-ever felony charges against a former Oval Office occupant, much less the current front-runner in the Republican presidential race. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Greece is heading for another general elections next month, possibly on June 25 as the ruling National Democracy Party refused to form a government with the other contending parties and pitched for holding another general election to allow the party with the largest seats to get majority and run the new administration smoothly. The other parties with smaller seats also declined to make any attempt to form the government. The general election to the 300 member Parliament was held on May 21 which did not give majority to the ruling NDP. The party was short of five seats from majority mark.NDP got 146 seats as against 71 by leftwing Syriza, 41 by socialist PASHOK and 26 by the communist KKE.

Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou appointed Sarmas, president of Greece’s supreme financial court, as head of a caretaker government that will lead the country to the elections. The move follows a meeting with leaders of all parties represented in the 300-member strong new parliament. The new caretaker government is expected to be sworn in by Sunday and the date of elections will be announced on Monday.

A revised electoral system will be used at the next election, which provides a bonus of up to 50 extra seats for the winning party, facilitating the formation of a single-party government. Under this system, the frontrunner will gain an absolute majority in the new Parliament with even 38 per cent of the votes. This new electoral system will help the leading rightwing party NDP which got 40. Per cent votes in the May21 elections followed by the Left Syriza with 20 per cent., PASHOK with11per cent and KKE with 7.2percent.

The 55-year-oldconservative Prime Minister Kiriakos Misotakis was expecting a majority in the May 21 elections for his party NDP but once his party was short of majority by five seats, he took the decision to opt for the second elections so that he could run the government freely without depending on any other party. The change in the electoral law gave some incentives to the front ranking party in the next elections and that will help the NDP to cross the majority mark.

Prime Minister Misotakis made clear his preference. “The citizens want a strong government with a four-year horizon,” he said. “Today’s political earthquake calls on all of us to speed up the process for a definitive government solution,” he added. Syriza head and former Prime Minister Tsipras also indicated a new vote was likely, saying “the electoral cycle is not over yet”. The next battle, he said, will be “critical and final”. Syriza was the second largest party with71 seats and 20.07 votes and Communist KKE, fourth with 7.2 per cent votes and 26 seats.

Mitsotakis, a 55-year-old Harvard-educated former banking executive and global management firm consultant, won the election in 2019 on a promise of business-oriented reforms and has promised to continue tax cuts, boost investments and bolster middle-class employment. His popularity took a hit following a February 28 rail disaster that killed 57 people after an intercity passenger train was accidentally put on the same rail line as an oncoming freight train. It was later revealed that train stations were poorly staffed and safety infrastructure broken and outdated. But in the course of the campaign , he was able to meet the opposition challenge by mentioning of the economic growth of Greece despite covid impact.

Tsipras was prime minister during some of the most tumultuous years of Greece’s economic crisis, but the 48-year-old struggled to regain the wide support he enjoyed when he swept to power in 2015 on a promise of reversing bailout-imposed austerity measures. Tsipras as the Prime Minister during that period as also later as the opposition leader had to face severe criticism from the trade unions for failing to fight the austerity measures which had hit the workers badly.

Greece’s once-dominant Pasok party, overtaken by Syriza during Greece’s 2009-2018 financial crisis, also fared poor in Sunday’s vote, garnering just over 11 percent. Its leader, Nikos Androulakis, 44, was at the centre of the wiretapping scandal in which his phone was targeted for surveillance. Androulakis’ poor relationship with Mitsotakis, whom he accuses of covering up the wiretapping scandal made any coalition difficult. Similarly, there was no possibility of any understanding between NDP and Syriza after the May 21 elections.

Since coming to power in 2019, Mitsotakis has delivered unexpectedly high growth, a steep drop in unemployment and a country on the brink of returning to investment grade on the global bond market for the first time since it lost market access in 2010 at the outset of the financial crisis. Mitsotakis got the full support of the Greek businessmen and he was liked by the international financial institutions which had problems with the Syriza during its tenure in the government.

As of now, projections for the next month general elections look favourable for NDP to get a majority on its own. The electoral law is now advantageous to the right wing party. But Syriza still has chances to improve its position further by leading the disgruntled population of Greece who are fighting for better living conditions. Syriza and KKE have to be participant of the broad struggle against the NDP in the coming elections. Greek Left has a long tradition of struggle. Only a united action of the Syriza and KKE will help both in faring better in the June elections. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis won the national elections in Greece on Sunday comfortably after his New Democracy Party secured 40.79 per cent votes with 146 seats in the new Parliament consisting of 300 seats. The PM who played a role in the economic recovery of Greece in the last two years, is in a position to form the new government by taking help of some other party since he only needs five seats for majority, but at the same time, he can call for another elections to ensure the majority of his own party so that he has no need to depend on any other party.

The 55-year-oldconservative Prime Minister made clear his preference. “The citizens want a strong government with a four-year horizon,” he said. “Today’s political earthquake calls on all of us to speed up the process for a definitive government solution,” he added. Syriza head and former Prime Minister Tsipras also indicated a new vote was likely, saying “the electoral cycle is not over yet”. The next battle, he said, will be “critical and final”. Syriza was the second largest party with71 seats and 20.07 votes and Communist KKE, fourth with 7.2 per cent votes and 26 seats.

From Monday, Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou will give the top three parties — New Democracy, Syriza and the socialist PASOK — three days each in turn to form a coalition government. PASOK with 41 seats may like to support the New Democracy Party but indications are that the present PM may not like to be controlled by PASHOK leaders in any way. PASHOK also is not going to support unconditionally. Syriza was in the Government and its leader Alexis Tsipras is highly respected for his leadership, but the present PM Mitsotakis has no intention to form any coalition with his main contender Tsipras. All indications are leading to a deadlock in ministry formation. The final position will be clear by Thursday.

If they all fail, President Sakellaropoulou will appoint a caretaker government to prepare new elections about a month later, probably in last week of June or early July. The election was held under a new law of proportional representation, which makes it particularly difficult for any party to win enough parliamentary seats to form a government on its own. If a second election is held, the law will change again, shifting to a system that rewards the leading party with bonus seats and making it easier for the frontrunner to secure a parliamentary majority. Sunday’s election is the first in Greece since its economy ceased being under strict supervision by international lenders who had provided bailout funds during the country’s nearly decade-long financial crisis.

Mitsotakis, a 55-year-old Harvard-educated former banking executive and global management firm consultant, won the last election in 2019 on a promise of business-oriented reforms and has promised to continue tax cuts, boost investments and bolster middle-class employment. His popularity took a hit following a February 28 rail disaster that killed 57 people after an intercity passenger train was accidentally put on the same rail line as an oncoming freight train. It was later revealed that train stations were poorly staffed and safety infrastructure broken and outdated.

Tsipras was prime minister during some of the most tumultuous years of Greece’s economic crisis, but the 48-year-old struggled to regain the wide support he enjoyed when he swept to power in 2015 on a promise of reversing bailout-imposed austerity measures. In some areas, the party trailed the third-ranked but once-dominant Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), led by 44-year-old Nikos Androulakis.

Tsipras called Mitsotakis on Sunday night to congratulate him on his victory. “The result is exceptionally negative for Syriza,” Tsipras said in initial statements after his party’s dramatic defeat became clear. “Fights have winners and losers.” Tsipras said his party would gather to examine the results and how they came about. “However, the electoral cycle is not yet over,” he said. “We don’t have the luxury of time. We must immediately carry out all the changes that are needed so we can fight the next crucial and final electoral battle with the best terms possible.”

As the massive gap between the first two parties became apparent, Syriza supporters expressed dismay. “I am very sorry about the terrible state of these people (who voted for New Democracy),” said Syriza supporter GeorgiKoulouri, standing near a Syriza campaign kiosk in central Athens. “People who understand their position — the poverty and the misery that they have been put into — and still vote for them, they deserve what they get.”

Greece’s once-dominant Pasok party, overtaken by Syriza during Greece’s 2009-2018 financial crisis, also fared well in Sunday’s vote, garnering just over 11 percent. Its leader, Nikos Androulakis, 44, was at the center of the wiretapping scandal in which his phone was targeted for surveillance. Androulakis’ poor relationship with Mitsotakis, whom he accuses of covering up the wiretapping scandal, mean a potential coalition deal with the conservatives would be difficult. His relationship with Tsipras is also poor after he accused him of trying to poach Pasok voters.

Since coming to power in 2019, Mitsotakis has delivered unexpectedly high growth, a steep drop in unemployment and a country on the brink of returning to investment grade on the global bond market for the first time since it lost market access in 2010 at the outset of the financial crisis.

Debts to the International Monetary Fund were paid off early. European governments and the IMF pumped 280 billion euros ($300 billion) into the Greek economy in emergency loans between 2010 and 2018 to prevent the eurozone member from bankruptcy. In return, they demanded punishing cost-cutting measures and reforms that saw the country’s economy shrink by a quarter.

For their part, Syriza and the rest of the Greek left have spent much of the campaign highlighting the scandals of New Democracy’s last four years, zeroing in on the surveillance scandal that revealed that the Greek government was wiretapping journalists and opposition politicians. (One of the people wiretapped was Nikos Androulakis, the Pasok leader currently also campaigning to be prime minister.) The surveillance scandal took up much of the debate between the candidates, with fingers being pointed toward Mitsotakis.

What lies ahead for Greece’s : combined Left. ? Greece’s Communist Party KKE was with Syriza during 2015 but the differences started to take place during the tenure of Tsipras government itself. KKE took strict position on austerity measures but Syriza leadership took the position that those were needed for bailing out the ailing economy.. Syriza and KKE have been fighting on economic issues since then. In the 2023 national elections, the combined vote of Syriza and KKE is 27..2 per cent and 97 seats, not bad for an European nation. KKE got 7.2 per cent on its own with 26 seats. There are other left wing groups which got less than 3 percent and could not win any Parliament seat. Can the Syriza and KKE join hands on the basis of a common programme? That is the question which is being asked by the European Left in the context of the Greece’s present political situation. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Sheetla Singh who founded the Hindi language daily Jan Morcha based in Faizabad in 1958 and nurtured it for the last 65 years turning it into a real people’s paper passed away on Tuesday. He was 91 and active in his editorial responsibilities till the end. His demise is being mourned by the journalists throughout the country belonging to all languages as he was also known as a journalists union leader who did a lot for improving the wages and the rights of the media persons.

Sheetla Singh was an active CPI workers in 1950s in Uttar Pradesh having big interest in both trade union activities and news writing. In 1968 along with his comrade Hargovind. He founded the Hindi daily Jan Morcha with their own humble resources. Both the founders devote full time with zeal and passion to turn the daily into a popular newspaper with high credibility and good standard of editorial matters. Ata time, when the newspapers in UP at that time were seeking financial assistance from the business houses, politicians and the state government, Singh stood on his own and ran the daily based on his uncompromising position.

Jan Morcha itself was more of a mission than a newspaper for earning money.. It was a people’s platform for all practical purposes.. The daily defended the cause of the common man. In building the daily from scratch Singh and Hargovind took up cudgels for every genuine demands of the common people of the state, especially, the landless workers, minorities and the Dalits. His room was always accessible to hear the grievances of the concerned people.

Renowned journalist of UP Sharat Pradhan who knew Singh well remembers him telling him about his early days with Jan Morcha, when he and his guru Hargobind would not only handle everything about the paper but even use the same news sheets when the time came to sleep on the editorial tables they had purchased at an auction for just Rs 3. I Pradhan said that he recall how he once said, “Kitni baar Hargobindji, hum aur humare teen aursaathi, jo shurumein ye akhbaarnikalte the, wahin daftar mein khichri pakakar aur khakar table pe akhbar bichakar so jaate the.”

This means “There were so many times when Hargobindji, our three other colleagues who were involved with the paper then and I used to cook khichri in the office itself and go off to sleep on the editorial table

The daily underwent several twists and turns in its journey but it was always fighting on the basis of principles. The daily had to close down its Lucknow edition during emergency years. But after a long gap, the Lucknow edition was revived and it is still running. The paper faced big financial problems but Singh was determined and he navigated the daily through turbulence with big confidence. Today after 65 years, the paper has nearly 50 employees directly on its rolls and about 150 full and part-time correspondents spread across large parts of rural eastern Uttar Pradesh in particular.

Sheetla Singh, was the president of the UP Working Journalists Union for many years. Committed to the cause of journalists and free media, he displayed rare courage and conviction in upholding the values of trade unionism. As a four-time member of the Press Council of India, he had earned a big name for keeping the flag flying high for journalists. His contribution as a member of several wage boards for journalists and newspaper employees is also widely recognised.

At a time, when the present ruling government at the centre has launched an all out attack on the press and putting pressure on the journalist for ignoring the misdeeds of the government and the ruling party, the death of this Titan in Hindi journalism is a big setback for the journalists community and freedom loving media. His legacy will still inspire hundreds of young media persons. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The Labour Party in Britain made massive gains in the country wide local bodies elections this week vindicating the opinion polls that the Labour under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer is set to form the next Government after the national elections scheduled in 2024 or early 2025. The Conservative Party has got a big jolt as all efforts by the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to project a functional government after continuing chaos in administration, failed to produce dividends.

Results of the polls show that the Conservatives have already lost 48 councils, many of them strongholds for long and 960 councillors. When the final results are computed, the losses are expected to be more. The timing of the defeat has embarrassed the Prime Minister as the coronation ceremony took place on May 6 in the presence of the heads of a large number of countries.

The BBC’s projected vote share for the next national poll put Labour on 35 per cent, 9 per cent ahead of the Tories on 26 per cent, but short of the double-digit figures which Sir Tony Blair enjoyed in local elections ahead of his 1997 landslide victory.

“Labour is going to have its biggest lead over the Conservatives in terms of votes than at any point since 2010, but it’s going to be as much to do with the Conservatives being down as much as it is Labour being up,” , a leading political commentator said..

The Labour Party led by Keir Starmer is still engaged in ideological fight with the leftwing led by Jeremy Corbin about the election manifesto of the Party to challenge the tories in the coming national elections. Though Starmer supporters say that the dilution of the earlier Corbyn dominated Left programme has helped the Party in getting support from wider sections of moderate sections of British population, the left wingers say that at the present time of austerity, any compromise on the demands of the workers and the government employees, will adversely affect the prospects.

A spokesperson for grassroots group Momentum said: “To win the next general election, we cannot rely on Tory implosion alone — we need to mobilise our core vote and inspire millions. “People are hungry for change.” The Left wants that Corbyn should be taken back by the leadership as a front ranking campaigner and only joint efforts of the present Labour leadership and the Left will lead to the crushing of the Tories in the 2024 elections.

As against the confidence of the Labour Party, the Conservatives are split. Mr Sunak conceded the results, which could see his party lose more than 1,000 councillors, are “disappointing” but said he is “not detecting any massive groundswell of movement towards Labour or excitement for its agenda.” His pre-poll prediction that the Tories are now moving beyond’ box set drama’ politics is also looking increasingly naïve. His detractors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, former Tory prime ministers told the BBC that Mr. Sunak must own the disastrous results. He can not pass the buck to his predecessors.

The results have naturally given a big boost to the party leadership. Labour leaders said it had made gains in the kinds of seats it needed to win back power at Westminster. “Make no mistake, this means that we are on course for a Labour majority at the next election — a very, very good set of results for us,” said Sir Keir Starmer, the party leader.

Sir John Curtice, a respected elections expert, said that if replicated at a general election the lead of nine percentage points could be “perhaps just enough” for an outright Labour majority at Westminster. But he pointed out that Labour’s share of the vote was no higher than last year and that its lead reflected a slump in the Tory figure.

“Labour will be disappointed that it looks as though their vote is simply on a par with their performance in last year’s local elections, although the Conservatives are still five points down on 12 months ago,” said Curtice.

Michael Thrasher, of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre, said Labour was “falling short” of a general election-winning performance. “Even where it has done well, like Plymouth, the increase in vote share, though large, is not large enough for an overall majority at the next general election,” he added.

However if there is widespread anti-Tory tactical voting at the next election, Sunak could be in serious trouble, given that Labour and the Lib Dems combined secured a national vote share of 55 per cent, compared with the Conservatives’ 26 per cent.. Now the focus of all the political parties have shifted to the next general election. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Greece is going for national election on May 21 this year as the Prime Minister of the Centre Right New Democracy Party Kyriakos Mitsotakis met the President and proposed the dissolution of the Parliament. The President accepted and fixed May 21 as the date for elections. Next month’s legislative elections will be the country’s first under a proportional representation system.

Greece had for some had a coalition government headed by the leftwing Syriza with the support of the Communist Party of Greece known as KKE. The KKE differed with the major Left party Syriza on a number of issues related to workers rights and austerity measures. The coalition government could not continue. The present centre right government is in power since then.

Latest opinion polls show that the present centre right New Democracy Party will not be in a position to get a majority on its own and it will require the support of the other non Left parties. Most of the surveys indicate a difference of 4 to 6 percent between the present ruling party and the opposition, the main of which is Syriza. The present prime Minister led a single party government but he might not get this advantage next time after the polls even if his party emerges with largest single majority.

Apart from Syriza, the opposition parties include Panhellenic Socialist Movement and the fourth largest party is the Communist Party of Greece (KKE). But with the declaration by the KKE that the Party will not take part in any coalition with Syriza after the polls, has dashed all hopes of a solid left wing government after the May 21 elections. In fact, this stand of KKE is sure to help the ruling centre right prime Minister to improve his position in the coming days before the elections as without KKE as partner, Syriza has little chance to form a new government.

KKE general secretary, Dimitris Koutsoumbas, told the Athens media “The fact that we do not take part in an anti-popular government with Syriza or any other party of the system does not mean that we do not embrace popular people, honest militants who believed in those parties in the past, were disappointed by them and today see hope only in the KKE.”

In fact Prime Minister Mitsotakis exuded confidence while announcing the decision at the cabinet meeting by saying ‘the country and its citizens need clear horizons. The national elections will be held at the end of the four year term as I had committed from the start”. The conservative New Democracy Party Government’s four year term expires in July this year.

While opinion polls show Mitsotakis’ New Democracy in the lead over the main opposition left-wing Syriza party, the gap has narrowed following a rail disaster on February 28 that killed 57 people, stirring public anger. The government’s lead has narrowed to 4 percent, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

The May 21 vote will take place under a new proportional representation system, making it difficult for any party to gather a majority. Two rounds of voting are likely, as Mitsotakis has repeatedly said he will try to secure a parliamentary majority — without resorting to a coalition government. “If a second round is needed to cancel the adventure of proportional representation, it will take place by early July at the latest,” Mitsotakis said.

Numbers suggest that based on current polling it will be almost impossible to form a majority government even after the second round and a coalition will be needed. The first party would need to get around 38 percent of the vote in the second round to form a thin majority.

Public anger following the deadly train crash joins other issues the Greek government is dealing with, including high inflation and food prices, financial wrongdoing by conservative MPs, a wiretapping scandal and a secret offer by Saudi Arabia to pay for football stadiums for Greece and Egypt if they agreed to team up and host the 2030 World Cup.

Many left wing observers feel that the Greece Communist Party is taking too rigid a position by ruling out any coalition with the left wing Syriza after the elections. The differences in programme between the Syriza and KKE are certainly there but there are commonalities also and they both fought against the austerity measures of the centre right government. In Spain, the communists are a part of the coalition and the communist labour minister is recognized as the most successful minister in the coalition headed by the Socialists. KKE could have followed that taking into account the present right wing tendencies in the European politics.

In fact, the same mistake was done by the Portuguese Communist Party some years back by withdrawing its support from the coalition government led by the Socialists.. In the national elections thereafter, the ruling Socialists did far better while the Communists lost heavily. Even the working class base for protecting which the PCP withdrew by refusing to agree to the budget, shifted to the Socialists in the elections. It is time that the Communist Parties of these countries take a wider view on Left unity against right on the line of the Spanish Communist Party. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

The United States of America is steadily losing its diplomatic battle in the Middle East against China as more and more warring nations in the region are looking to China for acting as the facilitator for establishing peace in the region. After the big success of brokering a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China has shown interest in helping the two warring states Israel and Palestine to hold peace talks again.

China’s foreign minister told his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts that his country is ready to help facilitate the first peace talks between the two sides in more than a decade. In separate phone calls to the concerned ministers on April 17, the Chinese minister expressed concern over increasing tensions between Israel and Palestine in the recent months and why it was incumbent for the two parties to seek a solution through dialogue which China can help.

Last month, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a deal brokered by China to restore diplomatic ties that were cut off in 2016. This increases the chances of a new peace process in the war in Yemen, which was a proxy conflict between the two nations. The Chinese success in restoring ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia has come as a big diplomatic defeat for the US President Joe Biden as Saudi Arabia always has been a steady supporter of the US and the US has always taken a position supporting Saudi Arabia government against Iran and other west Asian nations.

Significantly, the Chinese foreign minister stressed in his talks with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen that Saudi Arabia and Iran have set a good example of overcoming differences through dialogue, the statement said. He told Cohen that Beijing encourages Israel and the Palestinians to show political courage and take steps to resume peace talks. The Chinese minister gave enough hint that China would only act as a third country helping negotiations as a facilitator.

Interestingly, the Israeli foreign minister expressed his country’s commitment to reducing tensions, but said the problem appeared to be difficult to resolve in the short term, but they both discussed the importance of maintaining quiet at the Temple Mount, particularly in the final days of the Ramdan. The Chinese minister also told the Palestine foreign minister Riyad al Malki that China was willing to play an active role in the resumption of the peace talks and the Palestine side should also ensure peace in the tension prone zone.

China’s consistent forays in the west Asian region through diplomacy also coincides with China’s success in the Latin America where more and more countries are showing eagerness to improve ties with China coming out of the influence of the American administration. The latest example is Colombia which has recognized Communist China by snapping all ties with Taiwan which the earlier Colombia administrations recognized. The decision of the Colombia government headed by the left wing president Castro has given a big jolt to the US diplomacy in Latin America.

It is recalled the United States proclaimed the Monroe Doctrine 200 years ago and ever since has arranged Latin American and Caribbean affairs to its advantage. Nevertheless, struggles for national and regional independence did continue, and the poor and marginalized classes did resist. Eventually there would be indigenous movements, labour mobilizations, and progressive and socialist-inclined governments. Cuba’s revolutionary government, for instance, has endured for 63 years.

The U.S. political hold may have weakened, but U.S. control over the region’s economies remains strong; after World War II it extended worldwide. Now, cracks are showing up. In particular, the U.S. dollar’s role as the world economy’s dominant currency may have run its course.

In 1944, 44 Allied nations determined that the value of their various currencies would correlate with the value of the U.S. dollar instead of the value of gold. The nations since then have relied on the U.S. dollar for their reserve currencies, for foreign trade and in banking transactions. But now, many Latin American countries are trading in the Chinese currency yuan as against dollar thereby giving a hiccup to the US administration. The latest was the Latin America’s largest populated country Brazil which last week decided to use yuan instead of a US dollar as a currency of exchange. Brazil’s example can be followed by some other countries soon having excellent trade relations with China..

That way while the United States has been trying to encircle China in geo strategic terms and the US trade war against China is on, in reality, the US is losing its trusted allies to the diplomatic moves of the Chinese government and this now covers both Latin America and the Middle East. The latest Chinese move to broker peace talks between Israel and Palestine, if fructifies, will be another feather in the cap of China to the detriment of the US hegemony. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

Ten national governments of Latin America including a few left wing regimes are having discussions to evolve a common strategy in dealing with the economic issues facing the countries. Most of the countries are facing the problem of high prices of essential commodities and there are areas in the economy dominated by the multinational corporations.

The governments of these ten Latin American and Caribbean countries will meet in Havana on April 12 to discuss the best ways to jointly counter the scourge to their populations of the inflationary wave sweeping the world.

The meeting is convened by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and will be attended by government representatives from Cuba, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Belize, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines representing, in addition, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the host, Mexico.

Among the measures being considered are the exchange of foodstuffs, as also trade in food grains and raw materials. The governments will consider the measures needed for reducing the cost of production so that the impact of the price rise on the common people can be contained.

Discussions will focus on ways of shortening the distribution circuit, devising ways of circumventing or at least reducing the high cost of the exorbitant profits of the intermediary actors, especially large supermarket chains. Some of the countries are suffering from food shortages. Efforts will be made to ensure that these problems can be overcome through cooperation of the other states which are comfortable with food grains.

Significantly, the International Day of Peasant Struggles will be commemorated on April 17. The day will mark global mobilization to highlight and denounce the continued criminalization, oppression, and repression of peasants, farm workers, rural women, migrants, and Black and Indigenous communities around the world.

In the face of the advance of capital over territories that until recently were considered “marginal,” peasants, Indigenous peoples, and other rural inhabitants represent the main frontier of resistance against the hydro-agro-extractivism of transnational mega-corporations, says the text of the appeal issued by the coalition, which brings together 182 member organizations in 81 countries. The organisers of the International Day want the participants of the virtual meet on April 12 to recognize as food for all a the fundamental right.

There has been a sea change in Latin American political scene in the recent months. The decision announced by the Honduras Government last month recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the only China and snapping all diplomatic ties with Taiwan signals the emergence of independent foreign policy by the left wing regime elected only early last year after decades of domination by the pro- American political parties in the country. The decision has also enthused the other pink regimes of the continent which have been under US pressure and threats to opt for measures suiting the interests of the respective countries.

Honduras has ended its decades-long diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favour of ties with China, prompting Taipei to accuse Beijing of using “coercion and intimidation” to lure its few remaining allies. Taiwan which has been in a war of attrition with Communist China for the last two years, is jilted at this development as this might have its impact on some of the thirteen other countries who still maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

The statement of the Honduras foreign was unambiguous. It said “the government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that represents all of China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory’. At a time when China is engaged in a confrontation with both Taiwan and its protector USA, this strong decision by the Honduras which belongs to the backyard of the United States and earlier considered as the US dominated zone, this action on the foreign policy front, has also given a jolt to the Biden administration.

China and Taiwan have been locked in a battle for diplomatic recognition since the two sides split amid civil war in 1949, with Beijing spending billions to win recognition for its “One China” policy. China views Taiwan as one of its provinces with no right to state-to-state ties, a view the elected government in Taipei strongly disputes.

Honduras’s ending of ties with Taiwan had been long expected after the Honduran foreign minister travelled to China last week and President Xiomara Castro said her government would start ties with Beijing. Shortly after Honduras’s announcement, China announced it was opening ties with Tegucigalpa. “China and Honduras just established diplomatic relations,” tweeted Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry.

Taiwan still has ties with Belize, Guatemala and Paraguay in Latin America, and Vatican City. Most of its remaining partners are island nations in the Caribbean and South Pacific, along with Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, in southern Africa. Despite China’s campaign of isolation, Taiwan retains informal ties with more than 100 other countries, most notably the United States. India recognized China soon after the communist regime took over in 1949 but the recent deteriorating relations between China and India have led India to improve trade relations with Taiwan.

The US State Department said while the Honduran action was a sovereign decision, it was important to note China “often makes promises in exchange for diplomatic recognition that ultimately remain unfulfilled”. “Regardless of Honduras’ decision, the United States will continue to deepen and expand our engagement with Taiwan,” it said in a statement.

As of now, many steps have been taken by the pink regimes in the Latin American region to collaborate among themselves to foster both political and economic relations. Mexico president Obrador and the Brazil president Lula are taking lead in giving a pro-people direction to the policies of the Latin American regimes. The Honduras Government’s action will only strengthen the process of building a strong independent Latin American region. (IPA Service)

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By Satyaki Chakraborty

There are at least ten valid legal reasons for challenging the conviction of the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi by the Surat Court as a consequence of which the Wayanad member of Lok Sabha was disqualified by the Lok Sabha secretariat on March 23 this year. The former MP’s lawyer Kirit Panwala is filing the appeal against the conviction on the basis of those reasons shortly, according to The Leaflet.

On March 23, H.H. Verma, a chief judicial magistrate in Surat, pronounced the judgment sentencing Gandhi to two years of imprisonment under Sections 499 (defamation) and 500 (punishment for defamation) of the Indian Penal Code, 1860 (IPC), the maximum punishment under these Sections, and the minimum needed under Section 8(3) (disqualification on conviction for certain offences) of the Representation of People Act, 1951, to disqualify a member from the Parliament.

A day later, Gandhi was promptly disqualified from the Parliament, putting a spanner in the works of his recent political resurgence via the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the fiery speeches in the Lok Sabha, in which he questioned the nexus between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani. The conviction and the consequent disqualification of the membership has united all the opposition parties against the Narendra Modi Government and the BJP. Already fourteen major p opposition parties have sent a petition to the Supreme Court seeking the intervention of the apex judicial body to the blatant use of the central agencies by the Modi government a against the opposition leaders in the interests of the ruling party. The Supreme Court is set to hear the petition on April 5.

Rahul’s lawyer Mr. Panwala has already listed ten reasons citing which he will seek stay on the conviction of Rahul Gandhi which includes two years in jail. The CJM allowed Rahul Gandhi to appeal against the conviction within a month. Accordingly, the Rahul lawyer is filing the appeal within the stipulated period- by April 22 this year. The immediate fate of the conviction depends on the decision of the Surat court on this appeal but if it is not stayed, Rahul Gandhi can approach higher court also for relief.

According to Mr. Panwala, almost 90 per cent of Gandhi’s supposedly defamatory allegations were against Prime Minister Modi. The defamation case could have only been filed by the person aggrieved by the offence, that is, Narendra Modi; the complainant, Gujarat legislator Purnesh Modi had no right to file a criminal complaint for the concerned imputation. Thus, the complaint is not maintainable under Section 199(1)(prosecution for defamation) of the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973 (CrPC).

Further, even for the single imputation, Purnesh Modi cannot be considered as the aggrieved person because it does not concern him personally; it is against all ‘Modis’.

The Surat court convicted Gandhi for his remarks under Sections 499 and 500 of the IPC. He was sentenced to simple imprisonment for two years. This is the maximum punishment that could have been awarded by the court. Even in the gravest cases of defamation, the court does not ordinarily inflict such harsh punishment. Such punishment could certainly not be inflicted for a single imputation, which was not even elaborated upon.

Rahul’s lawyer’s point, according to The Leaflet is that the award of such disproportionate punishment gives the impression that it was only to set in motion Gandhi’s disqualification as a Member of Parliament, as two years is the minimum quantum of punishment to attract disqualification from the Parliament under the Representation of People Act, 1951. Mere imposition of a fine would have met the ends of justice in Gandhi’s case.

Further, it is not the case that a person cannot file a complaint on behalf of a collection of persons. But that collection of persons should be a ‘well-defined group’ that is definite and determinate, and can be distinguished from the rest of the community. There are many precedents of the Supreme Court and high courts to support this argument.

A defamatory comment against lawyers as a whole or against a community as a whole does not give the members of that community the right to file a defamation complaint, unless the alleged comment is directed, for instance, towards an identifiable group of lawyers such as the lawyers of the Surat Bar Association. The complaint’s alleged argument that there are 13 crore Modis and the imputation is directed towards all of them does not stand. It is because those 13 crore individuals are not a well-defined identifiable group.

Another important argument is that there is no ‘Modi community’ because there is no specific group of persons having the Modi surname. Modis are spread across many communities. Moreover, the complainant belongs to Modh Ganchi or Modh Vanik’s caste. There is no evidence to suggest that he is part of that community.

There appears to be no intention or knowledge to cause harm to the reputation of the so-called class of Modis or to the complainant himself. Gandhi spoke the alleged statement while comparing Narendra Modi with the fugitive businessmen Nirav Modi and Lalit Modi. His statement was clearly directed towards their common surnames. If the intention was to defame ‘Modis’ as a whole, he would have elaborated upon his alleged statement. In this scenario, mens reaas a vital ingredient of defamation is clearly missing.

Further, Rahul Gandhi resides outside the jurisdiction of the Surat court. In such cases, Section 202(postponement of issue of process) of the CrPC is applicable, where inquiry is mandatory before issuance of the process. In this inquiry, the examination of witnesses is a must. However, no inquiry was held and no witnesses were examined.

The violation of Section 202 can be raised at any stage of proceedings. The provision in this regard was added in 2005 to prevent harassment of persons residing outside the jurisdiction of the court by filing false complaints. This is a violation of the mandatory provisions of the law and it should make the trial null and void. This has been held in Deepak Gaba & Ors. versus State of Uttar Pradesh & Anr (2023).

As per explanation 2 of Section 499 of the IPC, an imputation made against a “company or an association or collection of persons” would amount to defamation. This is read with Section 199(1) of the CrPC, which states that no court can take cognisance of a defamation case unless the complaint is filed by “some aggrieved person”.

The surname ‘Modi’ does not refer to a specific community or caste. In Gujarat, the surname is used by Hindus, Muslims and members of the Parsi community. While some members of the Other Backward Classes use ‘Modi’ as a surname, others do not. The surname is also widely used in states like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

In G. Narasimhan & Ors. etc. versus T.V. Chokkappa (1972), the Supreme Court examined the explanation 2 of Section 499 and held that defamation against a collection of persons can only be committed if they are an identifiable group, that is, they are determined by the definiteness as a group of particular persons, who are distinguished from the rest of the community.

In this case, an imputation had been published in The Hindu newspaper against the political party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The complaint was quashed on the grounds that Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was not a definite and determinate body within the meaning of explanation 2 of Section 499 of the IPC.

In the case of Lakshadweep Parliamentarian Mohammed Faizal, who was sentenced to undergo imprisonment for a period of ten years for an attempt to murder on January 11 and subsequently disqualified by the Lok Sabha secretariat on January 13, his qualification was restored this week , over two months after the Kerala High Court stay on his conviction. So there are enough grounds for giving stay on the conviction of the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. (IPA Service)

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