BJP May Substantially Gain In North Bengal If There Is No TMC-Congress Alliance

At a time when Trinamool Congress supremo, Mamata Banerjee is announcing her intent of going alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, she seems to have overlooked that the company of Congress can help her regain some constituencies in north Bengal. The outfit she founded after breaking away from Congress way back in January 1998 failed to prevent BJP from winning six parliamentary constituencies in north Bengal in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Even as Congress remained a participant in the electoral battle in 2019 polls, the BJP staged a major comeback in Bengal’s electoral politics by winning six Lok Sabha seats from north Bengal. .

Benefits of TMC state government’s development schemes not percolating to many of the residents of north Bengal coupled with BJP luring the voters with a promise of statehood helped put the wind in the saffron ship sails. These constituencies happen to be onetime strongholds of the Left Front. But the Left base has eroded completely. Many Left supporters of these constituencies switched their support to the BJP nominees finding an onetime political untouchable to be a viable alternative.

Prospects of INDIA alliance are not bright in this state and north Bengal is no exception. Trinamool supremo cannot be fully blamed for her belligerence towards Congress given its state leadership’s opposition to her even as the party’s national leaders like Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, continue to make placating noises.

As the country inches towards 2024 Lok Sabha elections, two almost simultaneous trips of north Bengal by Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi sought to boost the morale of the activists of the respective parties. On the face of it, these tours ruffled feathers, but if fissures are not allowed to develop into cracks in the INDIA in West Bengal, then BJP led NDA coalition will have an uphill task to retain the seats it won in 2019 elections if the latest political developments are taken into account..

As things stand now, TMC and Congress are unlikely to close ranks in this state. The BJP leadership despite having a state unit riven with differences has a better chance of keeping its tally of seats intact in north Bengal districts of the Trinamool-run state..

State Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has been blamed by several TMC leaders for the cohesion between the two parties not being achieved. The Trinamool has made no secret of her party going it alone in the coming elections just as it did five years ago unwittingly dividing the anti-BJP votes.BJP got 18 seats in 2019 elections while the TMC got only 22. In 2014 elections, the TMC had got 34 seats out of the total of 42.

Assembly elections results two years hence did not show any significant changes in north Bengal though BJP’s tally of seats trailed behind that of the ruling dispensation of the state. Of the 77 Assembly constituencies in north Bengal, the TMC won in 45 seats while the BJP emerged victorious in the remaining 32 seats. The Congress and the Left Front got no seat.

Both the TMC chieftain and the Gandhi scion toured Malda, parts of Dinajpur and Murshidabad. Even if the Left is not on board with TMC and Congress, these two INDIA constituents closing ranks in these districts will lead to BJP defeats in some of the constituencies held by it.

In Malda (North) Lok Sabha constituency Khagen Murmu of BJP won by more than two lakh votes against Mausam Benazir Noor of Trinamool with the Congress nominee being relegated to the third place. But if TMC and INC put up a common candidate, the combined vote share will snatch the sole Lok Sabha seat from Malda for the BJP.. In the last assembly elections as also in the panchayat polls last year, TMC has done better in the district but still in many seats, TMC on its own is not adequate to defeat BJP in 2024 polls.

Two divisions of Dinajpur comprise Balurghat and Raigunj parliamentary constituencies. Sukanta Majumdar, the BJP state chief has been elected from Balurghat while Debasree Chowdhury for whom Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought votes emerged victorious in Raigunj.

Both Balurghat and Raigunj have saffron camp representatives for the first time. Majumdar who defeated Arpita Ghosh of TMC by little more than 30,000 votes will lose by a slim margin if TMC and INC field a single candidate; the margin increases in the event RSP, the Left nominee in this seat supports the common candidate.

Raigunj will slip out of the BJP kitty, if a common nominee of Congress and TMC contests from Raigunj. While Chowdhury’s victory margin is more than 60,000 votes, the Congress nominee alone polled more than 80,000 votes. Saffron influence is strong in Jalpaiguri. Chances of other parties is dim here.

It would be a neck to neck contest in Coochbehar where statehood promise for Kamtapuri populace is a game changer for the BJP. But BJP is in no hurry to fulfil its promise, a fact voters seem to know. TMC is trying but if there is a Congress-TMC understanding, BJP will be faced with a bigger challenge.

Only in the Jangipur Lok Sabha seat in . Murshidabad BJP has a slim chance for the vote share of the saffron camp nominee second to that of the victorious But if a common TMC-Congress candidate is fielded, the alliance can get the seat from BJP.

Darjeeling and Alipurduar parliamentary constituencies are likely to remain in the saffron fold. Even if Gorkhaland remains far cry, the Gorkha votes are giving the BJP a firm footing in Darjeeling, The saffron camp dangling the carrot of statehood before the Rajbanshi populace in Alipurduar has ensured a committed vote bank for itself thereby attaining an edge over both the TMC and the Congress..

The traditional Bengali voters who are against the BJP are looking for a TMC-Congress alliance to defeat the BJP convincingly in 2024 polls in the state, but that may not take place finally due to the sudden arrogance of the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee who is, as of now, bent on fighting all the 42 seats. It is too early to speculate whether Mamata will succeed like the last assembly polls, but it is a fact, that her distancing from INDIA and te Congress has adversely impacted a substantial educated voters in Bengal who were looking for a powerful INDIA bloc to emerge to take on the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)