National Elections In Pakistan In October This Year May Not Ensure Stability

Pakistan seems to be teetering on the edge of an abyss of crisis with none its political parties offering a policy prescription of course correction. Uncertainties abound even as industrial sector contraction is likely to rise, former prime minister Imran Khan despite being bogged down in a number of litigations not asking his party activists of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to slow down their ongoing stir though it is erupting in fits and starts

It seems that Pakistan is a long way to recover from the fallout of 9 May riots which scarred the country in general and singed some army establishments in particular. Khan it seems is in no mood to ask PTI activists to cool their temper as the events of that eventful May day seems to have triggered a crackdown as never before on the members of Pakistan’s former ruling dispensation.

The reasons behind the obduracy of the man who led Pakistan to a cricket World Cup victory is not quite in keeping with his one-time image of an individual who played and partied hard. The transformation of Khan comes in the backdrop of former PTI leaders and law makers quitting their party while the Shahbaz Sharif government tightening its screws on Khan stating he would be tried in a military court as his supporters have vandalised army establishments.

Small wonder, hitting any dialogue with Sharif government out of the park, Khan has dug in his heels. There is little reason that he will not continue to do so.

Along with the political crisis, the economy is going south as the IMF bailout is still illusive. For IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva has set a precondition for the resumption of the stalled economic aid programme. Such bailout does not appear to be on the cards unless Pakistan arranges to fill the gap of 6 billion dollars in its current account of its financial year which ends on 30 June. Despite curbs placed on it, the reserves have plunged to less than a month of imports.

Short term measures like imposition of import controls have been put in place. Even a marked slide of the GDP growth which is far less than the previous year is contested. Exports have declined. Inflation having reached the highest level, with an eye on the elections a fiscally lax “relief budget” seems likely to be rolled out.

Democracy in Pakistan has been always in a crisis with it always coming out second best or even more lower vis-a-vis its neighbour India. And this time the mode selecting a popular government seems to have come a new low.

Looking back at the path of descent of Pakistan down an inglorious path will hardly improve matters. With PTI disintegration not being ruled out, the plight and passage of its votebank is worth going into. Pakistan national elections are likely in October this year.

An option open to the voters of Pakistan is formation of a party from PTI deserters and dissidents. With this goal Jahangir Khan Tareen is on the job though he needs to have his disqualification set aside legally.

A look at the electoral battleground of Pakistan reveals that a four way contest is going to be witnessed by Punjab which determines the national outcome. The PTI voters have a choice between PML-N and PPP.

Tareen’s voters is unlikely to get the support each of these parties. That leaves them with their own party and PTI rump. The remnants of the PTI is not to be ruled out. After all, voters have been known to punish deserters in the past.

Pakistan’s future seems to be uncertain as few factors having a bearing on it showing signs of constancy. Decisive long term action in political and economic fronts is the need of the hour. But who will ring the bell? (IPA Service)