Dubai homes enter steadier phase

Dubai’s property market is showing early signs of stabilisation nearly 10 weeks into the regional conflict, with April transaction activity edging higher and off-plan sales continuing to dominate despite softer secondary demand.

Market data presented during Betterhomes’ May property webinar showed total transactions rising by just under 2 per cent month on month in April, while annual volumes were still 23 per cent lower. The figures suggest a market adjusting to geopolitical uncertainty rather than facing a disorderly retreat, with sellers broadly holding their positions and listing supply not showing the kind of jump usually associated with distress.

Off-plan activity remained the strongest part of the market, accounting for about 76 per cent of all transactions in April, up 7 per cent from March. The resilience of new project sales reflects the continued role of developers, structured payment plans and long-term investor expectations in sustaining activity even as buyers become more selective. Developers still need to sell inventory under construction, while buyers remain drawn to staged payments and the prospect of capital gains in areas tied to infrastructure expansion.

The secondary market showed greater strain. Transactions in completed homes fell 13 per cent month on month and 55 per cent year on year, underlining weaker appetite for immediate resale purchases. Industry executives interpreted the decline as a pause in decision-making rather than a rush to exit, noting that available listings have not risen sharply. That distinction is significant for Dubai, where past corrections were often accelerated by speculative selling and rapid supply growth.

Leasing indicators also point to a cooler but still active market. Betterhomes’ inquiry-to-listing ratio has fallen to 6.6 from about 10 before the conflict, showing that tenant demand has softened without collapsing. Available rental units rose from just over 2,000 at the start of March to just under 2,200, giving tenants more options after several years of rapid rent increases.

Around 70 per cent of rental listings handled by the brokerage have seen price reductions, with average cuts just below 10 per cent. That shift may unsettle landlords who benefited from strong yields over the past four years, but it could also ease cost pressures for residents. With more than 70 per cent of Dubai’s population living in rented accommodation, softer rents could improve affordability and support the emirate’s longer-term appeal to workers, entrepreneurs and families.

Three policy developments are expected to influence buyer sentiment over the coming months. The removal of the Dh750,000 minimum property value previously linked to two-year investor visa eligibility widens access to residency-linked purchases, particularly for buyers targeting studios and lower-priced apartments. The change could support demand in affordable and mid-market segments, where entry prices had become a barrier for some end-users.

The proposed Gold Line Metro expansion is another major factor. The $9 billion transport project is expected to connect about 15 districts and serve nearly 1.5 million residents by 2032, including areas such as Business Bay, Dubai Production City and Jumeirah Golf Estates. Large transport corridors have historically lifted demand in adjacent communities by improving access, shortening commutes and drawing commercial activity.

The UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1 adds a broader macroeconomic dimension. The move gives Abu Dhabi more autonomy over production policy and reflects a wider economic strategy built around energy flexibility, infrastructure, finance, tourism, logistics and technology. For Dubai property investors, the relevance lies less in oil output itself and more in confidence that the country is pursuing policies aimed at sustaining growth during a volatile regional cycle.

Dubai’s real estate sector entered 2026 after an exceptional run. Property transactions exceeded Dh760 billion in 2025, with more than 226,000 deals recorded, marking the strongest annual performance on record. That momentum was driven by foreign capital, population growth, tax efficiency, high rental yields and the emirate’s reputation as a safe-haven market for wealth and business relocation.

The current phase is more measured. Buyers are negotiating harder, landlords are adjusting rents, and off-plan investors are weighing developer strength, location quality and handover timelines more carefully. Market professionals have also cautioned buyers with existing off-plan contracts against stopping payments without legal advice, as sale and purchase agreements remain binding and exit options often depend on payment thresholds, no-objection certificates and long-stop completion clauses.