US Security Umbrella Over Gulf States Is Crumbling

By Nantoo Banerjee

The U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be desperately looking for a graceful exit fast at least to save the U.S. partnership with the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and also the massive financial cost of war. The financial cost of the Iran war already reached approximately $37.5 billion in direct Pentagon expenditures, with broader economic impact estimates running much higher. The war has severely impacted the GCC member states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Although these states have nothing to do directly with the US-Iran war, they have become natural victims of the war as they host large US military assets. The GCC members have been absorbing extensive Iranian retaliatory strikes on their civilian, energy, and logistics infrastructure.

Despite seeking neutrality and trying to stay out of the crossfire, the geographic and strategic realities deeply entangled these nations. The GCC member states have indeed been severely impacted in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, suffering direct retaliatory missile strikes, major energy infrastructure damage, and vital trade route closures. The Gulf states are losing faith in the high-cost US protection. Although these states do not directly pay any fixed sum for US military protection, they traditionally contribute huge amounts by hosting US bases, purchasing billions in American military equipment, and investing heavily in US markets. The GCC members like Saudi Arabia and the UAE spend vast sums of money buying advanced US defence systems, aircraft, and missiles. They provide land, logistics, and varying levels of financial support for US military installations on their territory.

Since March last, Iran has launched thousands of missiles and drones targeting all six GCC members because they host US military assets and personnel. Iranian projectiles struck non-military and civilian infrastructure, including airports, residential areas, and critical water desalination and power plants in Kuwait and Bahrain. The air defence systems across the Gulf have been forced into continuous, high-cost activation to intercept incoming Iranian military threats. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and direct hits on facilities like Qatar’s RasLaffan industrial hub have halted or heavily reduced major oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. At the same time, tourism, aviation, and major transit hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have suffered massive capital flight, prolonged airspace closures, and tens of thousands of cancelled flights.

However, a graceful US exit from the conflict with Iran remains elusive as fragile ceasefires, volatile shipping lanes, and stalled diplomatic frameworks define the current standoff. Earlier, the US military paused airstrikes on Iran for several consecutive days, and Tehran similarly halted its retaliatory actions. However, the tension seems to be brewing up once again. The US president often claimed that the US is holding “very friendly” and “good” talks with Iranian officials, but Tehran’s foreign ministry publicly denies direct negotiations are underway. In fact, last week, the US claimed it completed a “heavy wave” of strikes against Iran in retaliation for Iran’s attempted ballistic missile attacks on American forces.

Iran confirmed that the latest US strikes had killed three people, including a two-year-old child, on Qeshmisland, while other locations were also hit in the south and west of the country. Joint US-Saudi strikes targeted Iranian proxies in Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway, continues to remain a major flashpoint, with Iran asserting ongoing control despite a brief June memorandum of understanding intended to de-escalate the war. President Trump has warned that strikes will resume swiftly if a comprehensive and lasting deal is not achieved. In the meantime, clashes involving regional proxies, including Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, continue to expand the geographic scope of the instability.

It may be noted that the US had rarely come conclusively victorious in its major long-drawn military conflicts since World War II. Most of its protracted military conflicts had ended with stalemates and graceless exits. They included the 1950-53 Korean war, the 1955-75 Vietnam war, the 2001-21 Afghanistan war and 2003-11 Iraq war. The Korean war ended in an armistice rather than total victory, leaving the Korean Peninsula divided at the 38th parallel. The Vietnam war concluded with a military withdrawal and the fall of South Vietnam to the North. Though the Afghan war had achieved the initial goal of removing the Taliban from power, it ended in a complete Taliban resurgence after a 20-year occupation. The Iraq war successfully deposed Saddam Hussein, but dissolved into a prolonged insurgency and regional instability in the state.

An exit from the Iran war may lead to a substantial loss of US military and strategic grip over the Gulf countries. Questions are hovering around the very reliability of the American security umbrella, which has faced severe strain and skepticism, on the Gulf countries. While advanced American air defence systems intercepted the vast majority of incoming projectiles, the conflict exposed deep vulnerabilities as host nations still suffered massive physical damage, infrastructure disruptions, and economic tolls from regional retaliatory strikes. As the US-Iran war escalated, it exposed that hosting US military assets made Gulf states highly vulnerable to heavy Iranian drone and missile strikes. The US failed to protect them.

The Gulf nations are now accelerating efforts to build independent security ties and multilateral partnerships with alternative global and regional players like China, India, Pakistan, and European nations as against relying purely on a Washington-centred security posture. These states are actively rethinking their long-term security strategy and engaging in independent diplomacy with Iran because the US security umbrella turned their own territories into targets during regional conflicts although they are not planning to fully walk away from Washington. Qatar is leading efforts to build a localized regional security and economic framework directly with Iran to restore stability. India’s calibrated neutrality and focus on practical diplomacy during the conflict have been viewed positively by both Iran and the Gulf nations. Instead of picking sides, India has focused on protecting its diaspora, securing energy routes, and maintaining open lines of communication. (IPA Service)