Trade pact push lifts India Canada ties

India and Canada are moving to conclude a comprehensive trade agreement by the end of 2026, setting a target to lift two-way commerce to $50 billion by 2030 as both governments try to convert a diplomatic thaw into a wider economic partnership.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to Ottawa and Toronto, accompanied by more than 100 business leaders, has added momentum to negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which both sides see as central to expanding market access, investment flows and supply-chain cooperation. The visit comes after a prolonged freeze in trade discussions caused by the diplomatic dispute that followed the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

New Delhi and Ottawa are now working to rebuild trust through a structured commercial agenda covering energy, agriculture, critical minerals, technology, education and services. The scale of the business delegation travelling with Goyal underlines the attempt to shift the relationship from political caution to transaction-led engagement. A “Team Canada” delegation is expected to visit India later this year, signalling that both governments want to sustain ministerial and private-sector contact beyond formal negotiating rounds.

Bilateral trade remains below potential for two large economies with complementary strengths. Merchandise trade between the two countries stood at about $13.6 billion in 2025, with Canada exporting vegetables, mineral fuels, oils and wood pulp, while imports from India were led by precious stones and metals, machinery, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods. Services trade, especially in technology, education, professional services and mobility-linked sectors, has grown into a significant part of the relationship.

The $50 billion target is ambitious but not beyond reach if negotiations produce tariff concessions, regulatory clarity and stronger investment protections. India is seeking reliable access to critical minerals, energy products, gas, fuel and agricultural inputs from Canada. Ottawa, for its part, sees India as a large growth market at a time when Canada is trying to diversify trade beyond its heavy dependence on the United States.

Energy is likely to become one of the pillars of the renewed partnership. Canada’s reserves of uranium, potash, natural gas and critical minerals fit India’s requirements for food security, clean energy expansion and industrial supply chains. Civil nuclear cooperation has returned to the agenda, with uranium supply discussions forming part of the broader effort to rebuild strategic confidence. India’s rising electricity demand and its plan to expand non-fossil energy capacity give Canada a commercial opening in nuclear fuel and related technologies.

Agriculture and fertilisers also carry strategic weight. Canada is a major supplier of potash, while India’s farm sector requires stable input supplies to support food production. Pulses have long been part of the trade basket, though pricing, phytosanitary rules and domestic market sensitivities have at times complicated flows. A broader agreement could provide more predictable rules, but both sides will have to manage farmer concerns and safeguard mechanisms carefully.

Technology and education offer another route to deeper engagement. Canada remains a major destination for students from India, while companies in both countries are exploring artificial intelligence, clean technology, fintech, cybersecurity and advanced manufacturing. Talent mobility will remain a sensitive but crucial component of any expanded economic relationship, especially as Canada adjusts immigration settings and India pushes for easier access for skilled professionals.

The political backdrop remains complex. Relations deteriorated sharply in 2023 after Canada alleged involvement by agents linked to New Delhi in Nijjar’s killing, an accusation India rejected. Diplomatic expulsions and a pause in trade talks followed, slowing a relationship that had already been marked by differences over separatist activism, security concerns and diaspora politics. The decision to restart CEPA negotiations reflects a pragmatic calculation that economic interests can create stabilising channels even when political trust is still being repaired.

Business groups on both sides are pressing for faster progress. Exporters want lower tariffs, simpler customs procedures and clearer standards rules. Investors are seeking safeguards, dispute-resolution mechanisms and sectoral openings. Canada’s pension funds and institutional investors already have exposure to infrastructure, real estate and financial assets in India, while companies from India are looking at Canadian opportunities in technology, mining, manufacturing and services.