What Will Be India’s Response To US’s Bid To Offer NATO+ Membership

By Girish Linganna

In what could be a significant turning point in global geopolitics, the United States is reportedly contemplating extending an invitation to India to join the NATO Plus security arrangement. This move, a first of its kind, comes as the US seeks to strengthen its alliances and partnerships to counterbalance the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) across the Indo-Pacific region.

As the United States considers the possibility of extending a NATO+ membership to India, the geopolitical landscape promises an intriguing shift. The potential move, a decisive break from historical precedents, could significantly reshape the balance of global power, stirring a potent cocktail of opportunities, challenges, and substantial diplomatic manoeuvring.

NATO Plus, presently designated as NATO Plus 5, is a security arrangement that brings together the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and five aligned nations – Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea. This alliance is engineered to bolster global defence cooperation. Its extension to include India would imply a smoother exchange of intelligence between these countries, and quicker access for India to cutting-edge military technology.

The proposition to include India in the NATO Plus comes from the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This committee, formed in January 2023, though it lacks authority to draft or amend laws, has been tasked with making recommendations to legislative committees by the end of the year. The bipartisan committee, consisting of both Republican and Democratic representatives, has put forth a series of recommendations aimed at enhancing global security and deterring the CCP’s aggression across the Indo-Pacific region.

The committee advocates for bolstering ties with allies and security partners, including India, as a means to win the strategic competition with the CCP. Additionally, it calls for economic sanctions against China in the event of an attack on Taiwan, arguing that such measures would be most effective if key allies such as G7, NATO, NATO Plus 5, and Quad members were to join in. In effect, the committee is lobbying for a united front against the potential aggression of the CCP.

For decades, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been an emblem of shared defence and democratic values, primarily among North American and European nations. However, the evolving geopolitical climate, marked by emerging powers and intricate alliances, has compelled the US to reassess its global strategy. Offering a NATO+ membership to India is a testament to this reassessment.

The move is a strategic outreach that reflects the US’s recognition of India’s growing importance on the global stage. It underscores the American vision of expanding the democratic front against growing authoritarian tendencies around the world. Furthermore, it indicates a strategic pivot to Asia in response to China’s rising influence.

However, such a step is not devoid of challenges. The US must tread carefully, considering the repercussions this could have on its relations with Pakistan, a long-time ally in South Asia, and China, a significant global competitor. It must also take into account Russia’s response, given its historically close ties with India.

India, the world’s largest democracy and a fast-growing economy, has traditionally pursued a policy of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. Its diplomatic stance, characterized by balanced relationships with major global powers, has allowed it to navigate complex international dynamics while maintaining its sovereignty and strategic interests.

A NATO+ membership, while symbolically significant, might prompt India to reassess its diplomatic posture. Acceptance could further strengthen its strategic partnership with the US and other NATO members, enhancing its defence capabilities and global standing. It could also provide a platform to influence global norms and policies. However, India would have to weigh these advantages against potential strains in its relations with Russia and China.

India, a key member of the Quad grouping, which also includes the US, Australia, and Japan, has been gaining an increasing amount of attention within the American establishment. As the South Asian giant continues to grow in influence, particularly in a multipolar world beset with geopolitical tensions like the recent Russia-Ukraine war, the idea of inviting India to the NATO Plus platform seems to be gaining traction.

However, the question remains as to how the Indian Prime Minister would respond to such an invitation. It is beyond the scope of this article to speculate on the Prime Minister’s likely response due to lack of current, verified information. The geopolitical implications of this move are broad, complex and will depend largely on the specific terms of the invitation, India’s own strategic objectives, its relations with other countries in the region, and its historical non-alignment policy.

India’s Prime Minister, known for his pragmatic approach to international relations, will likely respond with measured caution. The government’s stance will be determined by a careful analysis of the potential benefits, risks, and the larger implications for India’s strategic autonomy.

An outright refusal of the offer may not take place under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as it could potentially strain relations with the US and other NATO countries. However, an immediate acceptance is equally unlikely given the potential repercussions on India’s relations with Russia, China, and even its non-aligned partners. Hence, the Prime Minister may opt for a nuanced response, keeping the door open for negotiations while preserving India’s strategic autonomy.

The proposal of NATO+ membership for India signals a potential shift in the global order. If it materializes, it could mark the beginning of a new era of alliances, one that moves beyond the traditional North Atlantic focus.

However, such a move would undeniably provoke reactions, both positive and negative, from various corners of the world. It could potentially amplify US-India ties, but at the same time, it might strain the dynamics within the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) grouping. A decision of this magnitude could also invite apprehensions from neighbouring countries like Pakistan and stimulate a response from the China-Russia axis.

The potential inclusion of India in NATO Plus represents a significant shift in global security dynamics. It demonstrates a keen recognition of India’s growing geopolitical clout, as well as an acknowledgment of the increasingly multipolar nature of the world. Moreover, it reflects the US’s strategic vision of establishing a stronger network of allies and partners to counterbalance the influence of the CCP in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, the real-world implications of such a move remain to be seen. It will be contingent on a multitude of factors, including the response of India’s leadership, the reaction of other countries in the region, and the evolving geopolitical situation. As the strategic dance continues, the world will be watching closely to see the next moves in this high-stakes game of geopolitics. (IPA Service)