Decoding Bangladesh Politics After 100 Days Of Interim Government

By Nitya Chakraborty

The interim Government of Bangladesh which took office on August 8 this year completed its first one hundred days on November 16. On this occasion, head of the interim Government Dr. Muhammad Yunus in a televised address to the nation on Sunday urged the people to keep patience and promised road map for elections soon after the carrying out of the electoral reforms. He emphasized that the government wants to create an election system that will be followed for ages.

The indications from his official address suggest that the national elections may be delayed by a few months but certainly not long and it may be possible to hold elections by the end of 2025. But significantly in an interview with the Qatar based news agency Al Jazeera the same day, Dr. Yunus said that the elections could be held anytime before four years. The release of the Al Jazeera interview has created a big furore in Dhaka political circles.

The most upset is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP) which is the most organized political party in Bangladesh now with experience of ruling the government twice. The party is best prepared to fight the elections at this stage since the others are disorganized and the anti-discriminatory students body who led the mass upsurge is deeply divided on the issue of the formation of a political party. The BNP wants that the elections should be held after the electoral reforms panel submits its report to the Government. The task of Constitutional reforms should be left to the newly elected Parliament.

The BNP has a love hate relationship with the head of the government Dr. Muhammad Yunus. The party is ready to tolerate Dr. Yunus up to a point since he is vehemently anti- Awami League and supported by a major section of the students body. But with Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections and taking over power on January 20 next year, the BNP knows that the Dr. Yunus’s days are numbered and this is the right time to lobby for early elections.

BNP’s acting chairman and former Prime Minister Begum Zia’s son Tarique Rahman has returned to Dhaka after his political exile in the West. Tarique was the main man who was lobbying with the western governments, especially the UK and the USA in favour of the BNP during the Sheikh Hasina regime and also afterwards. He was constantly travelling from London to Washington to lobby with the U.S. congressmen. This intensified after Trump victory and under his leadership, BNP was able to establish some links with pro-Trump advisers who are directly connected to the South Asia policy.

On Saturday, Tarique made the BNP position clear when addressing a meeting of BNP he said his party would not tolerate any incompetence of the interim government. ‘Despite numerous dissatisfaction shortcomings of this interim government, the people wish to maintain their trust. But does the government want that?’ he asked.BNP secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Alamgir said that the necessary electoral reforms have to be expedited and the elections should be held early.

Apart from campaigning, the BNP has started putting international pressures for holding early elections, especially on the USA and China, the two principal powers active in Dhaka political circles. A four member BNP delegation visited Beijing from November 7 to 16 and held discussions with the Chinese Communist Party leaders. The BNP leaders strongly aired the party’s views on holding early elections and how the BNP is interested in strengthening relations with China.

Not to be left behind, the US charge de affairs in Dhaka Megan Bouldin invited a delegation of BNP for discussions on November 14. The BNP delegation was led by the BNP secretary general Mirza Alamgir and they discussed about the latest situation in Bangladesh. The issue of electoral reforms and early elections came up. BNP expressed their views strongly. The party, worried at Trump’s possible stance to the Yunus government mentioned that BNP always worked for expanding relationship with US administration unlike Awami League government and the party will be doing so if it comes to the government again.

At the other levels of Bangladesh politics, interim head Dr Yunus has announced once again that his government will seek extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India to Bangladesh for trial. Bangladesh is also approaching Interpol for sending red notice to Hasina. All these moves are being publicly announced with full knowledge that the extradition is a difficult and log term process and India can defy it on the basis of existing legal provisions.

A fresh development is that the law ministry has moved the High Court for the deletion of ‘Socialism’ from the constitution which Sheikh Hasina incorporated. Some of the so called radical students activists belonging to various fringe groups, have kept silent on this interim government move. Dr. Yunus wants to keep out Awami League from the discussions on the proposed electoral reforms. He and many of the interim govt members are in favour of keeping Awami League out of elections. But BNP wants Awami League participation with some riders. The party delegation has conveyed that both to the Chinese and U.S. Governments. All in all, Dhaka is a political theatre of utter confusion.

The 24 member interim government consisting of the various components of the anti-Hasina struggle is well aware of the uncertainty over the future of Dr. Muhammad Yunus’s tenure after Trump takes over on January 20, 2025. Lisa Curtis, a key member of the Trump advisory board on South Asia policy has made some critical observations on Bangladesh government’s functioning. Recently, all the political parties including the underground Awami League are anxiously waiting for the Trump regime to officially take over. The final game will start only after January 20 in Bangladesh. (IPA Service)