AAP Is Now On An Uncertain Rocky Political Terrain, To Go Ahead Alone

By Dr. Gyan Pathak

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has now decided to go ahead alone and has started reviewing relationship with INDIA bloc. The party’s path ahead is already embattled with legal battles, with its three key leaders – CM Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Satyendra Kumar Jain – put behind the bar. The Enforcement Directorate has made the party an accused in a money laundering case, and the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi has recommended investigation in allegations of receiving funds from a terrorist organization. Apart from that, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said during election campaign that there were other 7 cases of corruption against AAP Supremo Kejriwal. Moreover, AAP could gain only a lacklustre public support during the Lok Sabha Election 2024. All these show AAP’s political path ahead is uncertain and rocky.

After the Lok Sabha Election 2024 results, AAP has said that AAP-Congress alliance was only for Lok Sabha elections, and there would be not tie-up for Delhi Lok Sabha Election 2025 to be held early next year. Further, it was clarified by the party leader Gopal Rai after a meeting of party MLAs and senior leaders at CM Arvind Kejriwal’s residence that the INDIA bloc was established specifically for the Lok Sabha elections from the outset.

In Delhi, where Congress-AAP alliance was contesting together and offering one-on-one fight to the BJP candidates, BJP was able to retain all the 7 seats it had won in 2019. AAP was contesting on 4 and Congress was contesting on 3 seats. BJP was able to gain vote share of 54.35 per cent, while AAP 24.17 and INC 18.91 per cent.

AAP lost East Delhi by a 93,663 margin of votes, New Delhi by 78370 votes, South Delhi by 1,24,33 votes, and West Delhi by 1,99,013 votes. It is despite CM Kejriwal was out on interim bail granted by the Supreme Court of India for campaigning in the Lok Sabha election. Kejriwal had even made emotional appeal to the people of Delhi, reminding then the works done by his government for the people of Delhi for education, health, water, and electricity among others. Electorate of Delhi did not favourably respond.

In Punjab, AAP and Congress contested separately since the alliance between did not materialize on account of opposition from the state leadership of both the parties. Out of the 13 Lok Sabha Constituencies, AAP could win only 3 seats despite the party in power in the state. It was a shock to the Central AAP leadership, and the state party leadership, since they were hoping to win all the seats from the state, believing that the people were angry with SAD and BJP, and INC was in organizational disarray. Election result proved that they were wrong. INC was able to win 7 seats, and SAD 1 seat. Even two independents won 2 of the seats. Due to farmers anger, BJP lost its 2 seats it had won in 2019.

AAP bagged only 26.02 per cent of votes in Punjab, while INC’s vote share was 26.30, SAD’s 13.42 per cent, and BJP’s 18.56 per cent. It clearly shows the Congress has restored itself as the biggest political party in the state, much to the frustration of AAP leaders. Barring the Sangrur Lok Sabha Constituency, where AAP candidate won by a huge margin of 1,72,560 votes, the party won two seats by very low margin. AAP won Hoshiarpur by only 44,111 votes and Anandpur Sahib by only 10,846 votes.

There is also a great trouble brewing for AAP in connection with getting fund from a Sikh terror organization, which is now being investigated. Outcome of this may be devastating for AAP and its existence as a party. The existential crisis the party is already facing on account of the ED case making the party an accused since it benefited from the bribe money taken in the Excise case.

Lok Sabha election result has also sprung up a great surprise for all, in Punjab, and in the country. A Khalistani separatist Amritpal Singh, who is currently in jail, won the election from Kadoor Sahib Lok Sabha constituency as an independent candidate. He won the seat as an independent candidate by a huge margin of 1,97,120 votes by defeating INC candidate Kulbir Singh Zira. He has been arrested by the AAP government in Punjab.

After his return from Dubai after a decade in September 2022, Amritpal Singh was appointed Waris Punjab De, though controversially, and advocating for sovereign “Punjabi Sikh” nation state Khalistan. His movement is different from the Khalistan movement of 1980s, when a separate Khalistan for Sikhs were demanded. There is an allegation that Waris Punjab De was raising Anandpur Khalsa Fauj (AKF) and has ISI support.

Waris Punjab De activists were also allegedly participated in Farmers Movement or 2020-21, and many of its members were accused of raiding Red Fort Delhi on January 26, 2021. In March 2023, Punjab Police, on instruction of the Centre initiated a crackdown. Amritpal was arrested on April 23, 2023, and sent to Dibrugarh Central Jail in Assam under NSA. Over 200 people were arrested during the crackdown.

There is also another twist to the political situation in Punjab. Another independent candidate who won was Sarbjeet Singh Khalsa, son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. He won Faridkot seat by defeating AAP candidate by a margin of 49,656 votes.

The victory of Amritpal and Sarbjeet has coincided with the 40th anniversary of the Operation Bluestar. Therefore, these are not simple victories of two independent candidates. Their wins are not an ordinary election results, since they are indicative of the potential revival of separatist movement in Punjab. AAP government in the state may land into great trouble in near future due to a possible new spell of separatist movement.

There is a double-edged sword for AAP, since the party is also under NIA investigation for receiving fund from a foreign terror organisation Sikh for Justice, for enabling a separatist to get out of jail.

Other cases, numbering over half a dozen, of corruption would also be investigated in the near future involving many AAP leaders of Delhi and Punjab. Though party has announced to contest the Vidhan Sabha Election in Delhi on its own, it is still uncertain if it would be possible for the party and its chief leaders to even participate in the election process. Modi government is most likely to pursue all the cases, which CM Kejriwal says that PM Modi wants to finish AAP. Even if for some reasons, AAP will be able to participate in Delhi Vidhan Sabha election, it is highly uncertain that the party would get better response than it got from the electorate in May Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)