Pakistani army has only limited options left in Balochistan

By Manish Rai

Recent bold attacks carried out by Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) rocked Pakistan. A large number of people and security personnel were killed in the province of Balochistan when separatist insurgents attacked police stations, railway lines and highways, and security forces camps. The assaults were the most widespread and ferocious in years by ethnic militants fighting a decades-long insurgency to win secession of the resource-rich southwestern province, home to major China-led projects such as a port and a gold and copper mine.

These attacks were carried out on the anniversary of the death of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who was killed by Pakistan’s security forces in 2006. Bugti, a former governor and chief minister of Balochistan, joined the separatist movement in 2005 and was killed in a military operation in August 2006 near his hometown of Dera Bugti. Since then, every year on his death anniversary Baloch insurgents intensify their attacks especially on Pakistani security forces.

But this year the scale and intensity of the attacks was mammoth. In addition to attacks on security forces, migrants from Punjab Pakistan’s biggest, most prosperous and politically dominant province were targeted as well. Most probably the separatist movement wants to send the message that outsiders are not safe in Balochistan.

The Pakistan military establishment which in fact takes all important policy decisions for the country has vowed to launch military operations in Balochistan in response to the recent attacks. But practically launching an operation in Balochistan is going to be a nightmare for the mighty Pakistani Army for the following reasons.

Balochistan is a large area with a scattered population, which is a major disadvantage for the government. The government cannot provide foolproof security, while nationalist armed groups can easily launch guerilla attacks and hide in the vast geography of the province. Tracking down a band of guerrilla fighters in the biggest province of Pakistan in terms of area will be next to impossible.

Balochistan’s borders with Iran and Afghanistan is a porous one and poorly guarded. This makes it convenient for Baloch insurgents for carrying on cross border movement of both men and material. Also, Pakistani authorities don’t have very cordial relations with its neighbours and can’t chalk out a joint strategy with them to put a check on Baloch insurgents movement across the border.

To effectively monitor and dominate Balochistan a mobilization of forces in big numbers is required. At this point in time Pakistan is not in position to spare that level of forces. The army is tied up at multiple fronts. Pakistan can’t afford to move forces from LOC and International Border with India and with growing tensions with Afghan Taliban forces can’t be redirected from Durand line. Additionally, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province Pakistani Taliban AKA TTP has heavily engaged Pakistani security forces. Hence, General Headquarters (GHQ), Rawalpindi finding it hard to increase its troop level in Balochistan.

Baloch armed groups have increased their capabilities many folds in every dimension. For example- Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) biggest Baloch armed group. Is the most organized insurgent group with an elaborate structure and numerical strength of 3,500 to 4,000 fighters. Over the years, BLA has improved its communication capabilities and armaments significantly. The longevity and resilience of the insurgents is undoubtedly a strength, as they have learned to adapt and respond to various counterinsurgency methods of the state. On ground these groups are capable enough and can give a bloody nose to Pakistani army through guerrilla tactics like- Ambush, IED Blast, Sniper fire, and Suicide attacks.

Despite having such vast natural wealth, much of the population of the province lives below the poverty line this has created a deep sense of resentment among the locals towards the Pakistani state. Sizable section of the Baloch society considers Pakistani deep state as looters which are exploiting their land and using it as a colony. With such a strong anti-Pakistan feeling prevalent in Baloch society it will be very tough for the Army to gather credible intelligence about the insurgents from the locals. Without proper ground information any military operation is doomed to fail.

Islamabad has always sought to consolidate more power and maintain complete control of Balochistan through its security forces by eliminating the traditional and local structures to reinforce state power. But in the process, the Pakistani Army has further weakened the state and advanced the hardliners position. So, by launching military operations in the name of a crackdown on insurgency won’t make much of a difference in fact it might ignite another fierce phase. At the core of the ethno-nationalist armed insurgency is the deep-rooted feeling of oppression among the Baloch people. The Pakistani deep state has always labelled these insurgencies as the handiwork of foreign intelligence agencies. But the truth is that forceful occupation and looting of vast natural resources have fuelled the call of Baloch nationalism. Let’s hope Pakistani generals sitting in GHQ, Rawalpindi come to their senses