Investors forgetting fundamentals amid geopolitical chaos

A few sentences from Donald Trump erased roughly $30 from the price of oil and lifted global equities.

The US president told reporters the war involving Iran could end “very soon,” although he also indicated the conflict would likely continue beyond the coming week. Financial markets reacted immediately.

Brent crude, which had surged toward $120 a barrel during the height of escalation fears, dropped sharply and slipped back below $90.

Equity markets moved the other way. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed higher in New York, while major indices across Asia, from Japan’s Nikkei 225 to South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, rebounded in early trading after several sessions dominated by geopolitical caution.

No ceasefire agreement had been announced. No diplomatic breakthrough emerged. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded firmly to Trump’s remarks, stating that the end of the war rests “in Iran’s hands.”

Markets moved anyway.

Financial markets increasingly react to presidential language almost as if it carries the force of policy itself. Political signalling now moves capital across the world in seconds.

Oil markets demonstrate the phenomenon most clearly.

Iran produces about 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for roughly 3% of global supply. Geography makes the country even more influential. Iran sits directly beside the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which around 20% of global oil consumption—approximately 21 million barrels per day—travels.

Even the perception of risk to that corridor can send prices soaring.

During the early phase of the conflict, traders rushed to price the possibility of supply disruption, pushing crude more than 12% higher in just a few days. Brent nearing $120 reflected a market bracing for regional escalation.

Trump’s comments introduced a different narrative: a possible path toward de-escalation.

Energy traders reacted immediately. Oil reversed sharply. Equity markets rallied as investors reduced the probability of a prolonged conflict disrupting global supply chains and pushing inflation higher.

Such rapid swings have become common in modern markets.

High-speed information flows and algorithmic trading systems monitor headlines constantly. Political speeches, military developments and diplomatic statements are processed by trading models within milliseconds. Capital then moves across asset classes with extraordinary speed.

Markets now frequently respond to signals before events themselves unfold.

Trump’s communication style amplifies the effect. His comments during both presidencies have repeatedly triggered immediate movements across currencies, commodities and equities.

Yet investors should be cautious about allowing political commentary to dominate investment decision-making.

Geopolitical headlines can move markets quickly, but long-term investment performance still rests on far more durable foundations.

Corporate earnings growth remains the primary driver of equity valuations. Analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to deliver earnings growth in the region of 8% to 10% over the next year, supported largely by continued expansion in AI and tech investment.

Major technology firms are committing enormous capital to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Global spending on AI data centres alone is projected to exceed $200 billion over the coming years as companies race to expand computing capacity and develop new digital services.

Consumer strength also continues to underpin the global economy. In the US, household spending accounts for roughly 70% of economic activity, and labour market data show continued resilience through employment growth and rising wages.

Corporate balance sheets remain relatively strong, particularly among large-cap companies. Many firms accumulated substantial cash reserves during the past decade and continue to invest heavily in automation, AI systems and productivity-enhancing tech.

Global liquidity conditions are another key factor. Interest rate reductions across several major economies have begun easing borrowing costs for businesses and investors, encouraging capital flows back into equities and growth sectors.

These forces—earnings growth, innovation driven by AI and tech, consumer demand, capital investment and liquidity—shape market performance over years rather than days.

Geopolitical developments create volatility. Fundamentals determine long-term outcomes.

Periods dominated by political headlines can easily distract investors from those deeper drivers. Rapid market reactions to comments from political leaders often encourage short-term decision-making that runs counter to long-term investment strategy.

Professional financial advice plays an essential role during such moments.

Experienced advisers help investors filter the noise, assess geopolitical developments in proper context and keep portfolios anchored to economic fundamentals rather than reacting to every headline.

Diversification across sectors, geographies and asset classes also helps mitigate the risks associated with sudden geopolitical shocks.

Energy markets, equities and currencies can all move sharply in response to political developments. Balanced portfolios designed around long-term economic trends are far better positioned to absorb such swings.

Recent trading suggests markets currently lean toward a scenario of contained escalation followed by eventual de-escalation.

Oil below $90 and rising global equities reflect growing confidence that supply disruptions will remain limited.

Iran’s response serves as a reminder that geopolitical outcomes rarely follow market expectations precisely. Strategic decisions in Tehran will play a decisive role in determining the trajectory of the conflict.

Financial markets often move first and confirm later.

Investors seeking to protect and grow their wealth would be wise to not solely focus on geopolitics, which can change overnight, but to simultaneously keep attention on fundamentals, disciplined strategy, and sound professional financial advice.