Hormuz reopening rests on narrow safe lanes

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said ships could resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz without every mine being removed, raising hopes of a faster reopening of one of the world’s most important energy corridors while leaving unresolved questions over risk, insurance and maritime security.

Wright said a workable channel could be created for vessels moving in and out of the Gulf, rather than waiting for a full clearance operation across the waterway. Speaking on the sidelines of the Three Seas Summit and Business Forum in Dubrovnik, he said: “You just need a pathway for ships to be moved in and out,” adding that such a route could be established quickly.

His remarks mark a shift from earlier concerns that the strait could remain constrained for months if every mine had to be located and neutralised. A full mine-clearance effort has been assessed as potentially taking up to six months, depending on battlefield conditions, mine type, weather, intelligence quality and whether hostilities ease enough for naval teams to work safely.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut to normal traffic since late February, after the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran disrupted commercial shipping across the Gulf. Iran has acknowledged placing mines along heavily used routes, while also using seizures, inspections and armed patrols to pressure foreign governments over the US blockade and sanctions.

The waterway carries roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade in peacetime. Crude, condensate, refined products and liquefied natural gas from Gulf producers normally move through the channel to Asia, Europe and other markets. Qatar’s LNG exports are particularly exposed because there is no comparable alternative route to global markets for most of its gas shipments. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that bypass Hormuz for part of their crude flows, but those systems cannot replace the full volume normally handled by tankers.

Energy markets have already priced in a prolonged disruption. Brent crude has traded above $110 a barrel, while diesel, gasoline and shipping fuel costs have climbed as traders account for longer routes, higher insurance premiums and uncertainty over cargo availability. The effect has been felt most sharply in Asia, where China, Japan, South Korea and other major buyers depend heavily on Gulf supplies.

Wright’s position suggests Washington is trying to separate two goals: restoring enough passage for commercial traffic and completing a comprehensive military clearance of the strait. The first may be achievable through surveyed lanes, naval escorts, aerial surveillance, drones and strict traffic management. The second would require a more exhaustive operation to remove or destroy all known and suspected mines, including devices that may have shifted from their original positions.

Shipping companies remain cautious. Mine warfare creates risks that are difficult for commercial operators to assess independently, and even a limited incident could halt traffic again. Insurers are likely to demand clear guarantees on naval protection, mine detection and liability before lowering war-risk premiums. Shipowners, charterers and cargo buyers will also need confidence that Iran will not seize vessels or fire on tankers even if a safe lane is mapped.

The security challenge is complicated by the narrow geography of Hormuz. At its narrowest point, the strait is about 33km wide, but shipping traffic moves through even narrower inbound and outbound lanes. A small number of mines, fast boats or missile threats can therefore affect a much larger share of global commerce than their physical footprint might suggest.

Iran has linked any full reopening of the waterway to an end to US and Israeli military pressure and the lifting of Washington’s naval blockade. Tehran has accused the United States of economic coercion, while Washington has insisted that Iran must stop using the strait as leverage and provide assurances on its nuclear programme and regional military activity.

The diplomatic track remains fragile. US officials have signalled that reopening Hormuz is a central demand, while Iran has argued that negotiations cannot proceed under blockade conditions. Pakistan has attempted to mediate, but planned contacts have failed to produce a breakthrough.

For Gulf producers, a partial reopening would ease immediate pressure but would not restore normal trade. Tanker schedules, refinery deliveries and LNG cargo timing have already been disrupted. Some vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf, while others have avoided the route altogether or waited for clearer instructions from naval authorities.