Pakistan channel tests Trump’s Iran gamble

Washington’s plan to send Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan has opened a narrow diplomatic track with Tehran, even as Iran publicly dampened expectations of direct talks to halt an eight-week war that has unsettled energy markets and deepened regional instability.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Friday that Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy, and Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, would leave on Saturday for discussions linked to Iranian officials. The mission is intended to revive negotiations through Pakistan after earlier efforts failed to produce a durable settlement. Leavitt said Washington had seen “some progress from the Iranian side” and that Trump wanted the envoys to “hear the Iranians out”.

Tehran’s response was notably cooler. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had travelled to Islamabad for talks with Pakistani leaders on regional developments and peace efforts, but stressed that no direct meeting with US officials was scheduled. Spokesman Esmail Baghaei indicated that Iran’s views would be conveyed through Pakistan, preserving Tehran’s position that any engagement with Washington must be indirect unless key conditions are met.

Pakistan has emerged as a central intermediary as both sides search for a route back to negotiations without appearing to concede publicly. Islamabad has hosted earlier contacts and has maintained tight security around its diplomatic districts, with major roads restricted and parts of the capital placed under heightened controls in anticipation of high-level movements. Officials there have sought to keep the channel alive, arguing that even indirect exchanges are preferable to a widening conflict.

The planned US delegation reflects Trump’s preference for a small circle of trusted negotiators in high-stakes diplomacy. Witkoff has been used by the administration in several sensitive foreign policy assignments, while Kushner retains influence in Middle East-related outreach from Trump’s first term. Vice President JD Vance is not expected to join the trip at this stage, though he remains on standby if talks advance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to stay involved from Washington.

The diplomatic push follows weeks of military pressure, sanctions and maritime disruption around the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has become one of the central issues in the conflict. Disruptions to shipping have pushed crude prices sharply higher, raised insurance costs for cargoes and forced energy traders to reassess supply risks across Asia and Europe.

Washington has paired the outreach with further economic pressure, including sanctions targeting entities accused of helping move Iranian oil. The administration has also maintained a hard line on maritime enforcement, arguing that Tehran’s ability to finance military operations must be curtailed. Iran, for its part, has accused the US of escalating the crisis through coercive measures and has demanded relief from sanctions as part of any meaningful path to a settlement.

The conflict has already imposed heavy costs beyond Iran and the US. Israel, Lebanon and Gulf shipping routes have been drawn into the wider confrontation, while fragile ceasefire arrangements elsewhere in the region remain vulnerable. Aid agencies and food-security monitors have warned that prolonged disruption to Gulf trade could aggravate inflation in import-dependent economies and intensify pressure on poorer states already struggling with high financing costs.

For Tehran, the Pakistan channel offers a way to test Washington’s intentions without entering a direct format that hardliners could portray as capitulation. Araghchi’s itinerary, which includes Islamabad as part of a wider tour also expected to involve Muscat and Moscow, suggests Iran is seeking to coordinate with regional and strategic partners before committing to any negotiating framework.

For Trump, the outreach carries both opportunity and risk. A breakthrough would allow the White House to claim that pressure and personal diplomacy forced Tehran back towards the table. Failure could leave the administration with fewer options, particularly if oil prices climb further or if military incidents around the Gulf intensify.