GEMS enrolment softens as war delays relocations

GEMS Education has recorded a modest slowdown in registrations at its UAE schools as families reconsider overseas moves amid uncertainty linked to the Iran war, though the Dubai-based operator says its expansion plans remain unchanged.

Chief executive Dino Varkey said the private education group had secured about 90 per cent of its targeted new sales for the next academic year, including fresh admissions and re-enrolments. The level is a couple of percentage points lower than the same stage last year, mainly because fewer families are committing to moves from abroad while regional security risks remain unsettled.

The dip marks a pause in what has otherwise been a strong growth cycle for Dubai’s private school market, driven by population growth, expatriate inflows, tax advantages and the emirate’s expanding role as a regional business centre. Varkey said the company still viewed the UAE as a growth market and expected demand to recover once the conflict outlook became clearer.

“It’s still very much a growth scenario. Just maybe the velocity has been dialled down a little bit,” he said, adding that enrolments would continue through the end of September. He said some families delaying relocations could still move once conditions stabilised, particularly those already weighing Dubai as a long-term base for work, lifestyle and education.

The immediate effect has been felt most clearly in international mobility. Airspace disruption, security concerns and temporary shifts to remote learning have prompted some families to delay arrival plans or return to their home countries during the height of the conflict. About 1,500 to 1,600 GEMS students, representing roughly 1 per cent to 1.5 per cent of the group’s base, relocated out of the country at the peak of the disruption. Between 600 and 700 of those students and their families have since indicated plans to return.

GEMS operates 45 schools in the UAE with about 146,000 students, making it one of the largest private school operators in the country. Its network spans multiple curricula and fee segments, placing it at the centre of Dubai’s education market, where expatriate demand remains a key driver of capacity planning.

Dubai’s wider private school sector has continued to expand. Student enrolment in private schools reached 387,441 during the 2024-25 academic year, a 6 per cent increase, across 227 schools. Ten new private schools opened during that year, reflecting the emirate’s Education 33 strategy, which aims to open at least 100 new private schools by 2033.

The emirate’s population growth underpins the long-term case for school investment. Dubai’s resident population has risen sharply since 2020 and is expected to reach 5.8 million by 2040 under the emirate’s urban master plan. That trajectory is increasing demand for housing, transport, healthcare and education infrastructure, particularly in communities attracting higher-income expatriate families.

GEMS has said it plans to invest more than $540 million over three years to add about 20,000 student places in the UAE. The first 5,000 seats are expected to come on stream in September. The programme is expected to be funded through internal cash flows, with possible partnerships involving property funds to develop school infrastructure.

The investment push comes despite short-term uncertainty for parents. Dubai’s private education regulator has frozen tuition fees for the next academic year, a move aimed at easing cost pressure on families while preserving stability in the school system. For operators, the freeze places greater emphasis on enrolment volumes, cost control and efficient campus utilisation.

The conflict has also reinforced the importance of operational resilience in the education sector. Schools across the UAE have shown they can move quickly between classroom teaching and distance learning when required, a legacy of earlier digital investments and emergency planning. For parents considering relocation, however, the ability to maintain continuity does not remove concerns over air travel disruption, insurance, employment logistics and regional safety.

GEMS has continued to signal confidence beyond the UAE. The group is also pursuing expansion in India through a separate plan involving up to $30 million over three to five years, with ambitions to establish more than 30 schools and work with 1,000 partner schools by 2047. That initiative broadens its growth platform while the UAE remains the company’s core market.