Saudi pledges steady energy supplies

Saudi Arabia has moved to reassure global energy markets that it will remain a dependable supplier as geopolitical shocks, shipping risks and divergent demand forecasts intensify pressure on producers and consumers.

Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told the 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that stability in the energy sector had become an urgent global requirement. “We are a resilient energy supplier; we have been and will remain so under all circumstances,” he said, placing the Kingdom’s energy diplomacy at the centre of discussions attended by senior officials from major oil-producing states.

His remarks came as Saudi Arabia participated as guest of honour at the forum, using the platform to underline its role in oil market management, long-term supply security and investment in energy infrastructure. The message was aimed at both consuming nations concerned about price volatility and producing countries facing pressure to balance market share, fiscal needs and coordinated output policy.

Prince Abdulaziz’s intervention also reflected the broader challenge confronting OPEC+ as it navigates an unusually complex market. Oil prices have been elevated by supply disruption fears, regional conflict risks and uncertainty over shipping routes, while demand projections have become increasingly divided. One major producer group expects oil consumption to keep growing this year by about 1.2 million barrels per day, while other forecasters see far weaker demand, including estimates ranging from marginal growth to an annual contraction.

That gap matters because OPEC+ policy now rests on two competing priorities: preventing a supply squeeze that could hurt global growth and avoiding an oversupplied market that would depress producer revenues. Several members have been moving towards a gradual unwinding of earlier voluntary cuts, with a possible July adjustment under discussion. Yet actual market impact will depend less on headline quota changes than on available barrels, spare capacity, export logistics and the ability of producers to raise output quickly.

Saudi Arabia remains central to that calculation. The Kingdom is one of the few producers with significant spare production capacity and a long record of adjusting output to respond to market conditions. Its official maximum sustainable capacity is about 12 million barrels per day, giving Riyadh an influence over market expectations that extends beyond its current production level.

The statement in St. Petersburg also carried a diplomatic signal. Saudi Arabia and Russia remain key pillars of OPEC+, despite differences in fiscal requirements, production constraints and exposure to sanctions-linked risks. Their coordination has shaped oil market policy since the expanded producer alliance emerged in 2016. For Riyadh, maintaining the partnership helps preserve producer discipline; for Moscow, cooperation with Gulf producers offers a channel to remain relevant in global energy discussions despite Western pressure.

Energy security concerns have moved back to the forefront after several years in which transition policy dominated debate. Disruptions to refining, shipping and crude flows have exposed the limits of spare infrastructure. Saudi Aramco officials have warned that underinvestment in refining capacity has left the system vulnerable, particularly after closures of about 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity between 2020 and 2023. That pressure has strengthened the argument from major producers that investment in oil and gas should continue even as economies expand renewable power.

Saudi Arabia is also seeking to position itself as more than a crude exporter. Its domestic energy strategy aims to free up more oil for export and higher-value industrial uses by replacing liquid fuels in power generation with natural gas and renewable energy. The Kingdom’s target is for renewables and gas to account for equal shares of electricity generation by 2030, part of a wider effort to reduce domestic oil burn and support industrial diversification.

That transition, however, does not reduce Riyadh’s commitment to hydrocarbons. The Kingdom’s energy policy rests on a dual track: expanding cleaner domestic power while defending the role of oil in global transport, petrochemicals and heavy industry. Prince Abdulaziz has consistently argued that energy policy must be practical, investment-led and resilient enough to meet demand under stress.

For importing economies, the Saudi message is likely to be read as a pledge of continuity at a time when market confidence is fragile. For producers, it reinforces Riyadh’s preference for managed supply rather than abrupt market shifts. The immediate test will be whether OPEC+ can keep coordination intact while responding to price pressures, uneven demand and rising scrutiny over capacity claims.