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6 Grey Swans that could cast a shadow on 2017

16 March 2017

The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) has predicted six political and economic ‘Grey Swan’ events that have a high likelihood of occurring in 2017, said Director of the Forum, Suha Al Aleeli.

The forum’s latest report, Al Aleeli added, establishes a scientific account of six unexpected events that could take place this year. The author outlines consequences of these events and their potential regional and international impact, she noted.

The report noted that these ‘Grey Swans’ include a cyberattack that cripples the global economy, where countries rapidly resort to methods to protect their e-systems and national security and a global trade war that is triggered as the world enters a global trade recession, where countries are likely to use protectionism to protect their own workers and industry.

Another ‘Grey Swan’ is a break out in bond yields; rising inflation and forcing governments to resort to fiscal stimulus and hugely damaging global markets, pensions, real estate valuations and world institutions.


The report also forecasts the collapse of the EU after a potential Quitaly and Portugone following the Brexit, the latest elections and as populist policies gain momentum and bond yields start to widen in uncertain times.

In addition to these events, Africa could grapple with increasing suffering and violence will surge, due to food inflation and the rise of an ‘African Spring’ in these countries, similar to the ‘Arab Spring’.

The last ‘Grey Swan’, according to the report, is the possibility of spelling the end to western liberal democracy and a surge in political violence, which pose a threat to liberal democracy.

For more details on the 20-page report, please visit the Arab Strategy Forum website via this link.

The Arab Strategy Forum was launched by Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum in 2001 as a platform to foresee the future and identify the world status and potential economic and political trends.

The Forum focuses on foreseeing and having a better understanding of key geopolitical and economic issues affecting the Arab World and international community. It brings together world leaders and thinkers to discuss key pressing issues in this regard. The Forum serves as a communication network, comprising a series of sessions that help provide a better understanding of geopolitical and economic future trends, both at the regional and international levels to create a better world.


© Press Release 2017

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