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What’s next after Trump’s walking out of the Iran deal?

| M A Hossain |United States has walked- out of the Iran deal that had been touted mainly by Barack Obama. Washington’s argument in this latest development is pretty clear. In their opinion, Iran though had stopped its nuclear development program, still was pursuing the ballistic missile development project. Meaning, Tehran did not abandon its nuclear ambition. Most importantly, Iran is seen as a potential threat to the Middle East peace both by Saudi Arabia and Israel. Donald Trump’s decision has categorically delighted Saudi and Israel. Political analysts already are seeing the emergence of a new axis between USA, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

Most of the member countries of the European Union as well as Britain had expressed dismay at Trump’s decision. They also have vowed to continue working with Iran. But, here again, political analysts are expressing pessimism on the effectiveness of the agreement after United States withdrawal. In their views, Washington will now impose newer sanctions on Iran, which will greatly jeopardise the existing  Iran- European  economic ventures. For example, Iran has placed an order for buying over one hundred commercial aircrafts from the European Airbus company. Any newer sanction imposed by the Trump administration would put this huge purchase order at jeopardy.

US, Saudis and Israel are desperately looking for regime change in Tehran. Failure of the nuclear deal will put the ruling government in Iran under tremendous political pressure from inside. It would also push Iran towards serious political mess.

The biggest losers of Washington’s decision are China and India, whose businesses with Iran grew many folds during past couple of years. But, neither Beijing nor Delhi can do anything ignoring Washington’s sanctions on Tehran. President Trump might have realized the so-called carrot policy won’t help in restoring democracy in Iran. He must even have been inspired with the dramatic developments in the Korean Peninsula, where sanction- hit Kim Jong Un now visibly has no more cards but to obediently follow Washington’s diktat in ending decade- old rivalry with South Korea. In the Korean affairs, the US clearly is inclined and also biased towards South Korea, its long-time ally. In the case of Middle East, United States will have even much visible and exposed bias towards Israel and Saudi Arabia. As the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman has already started considering Israel as his newer ally, ultimately Washington will place Israel into the head role in the Middle East. But, Saudi and Israel now has the common grounds in their Iran policy. To both the nations, Iran is seen as the key enemy.

United States’ withdrawal from the Iran deal will significantly decrease China’s influence and India’s interests in the Middle East. It also will have adverse effect on Iran- friendly nations like Bangladesh. Especially, Dhaka’s diplomatic policy of seeing Israel as enemy nation may not be seen anymore positively by Saudi Arabia and the US.

Donald Trump’s decision did ring the bell of the beginning of a new episode – a war between Iran and its allies, and the US, Saudi and Israel axis. Iran and its allies can not win this battle!

M A Hossain, a political and defence analyst writes on diversified topics in Bangladeshi and foreign newspapers including South China Morning Post, Modern Ghana, Malaysia Today, New Nation, Asian Age, Financial Express etc. He can be contacted at: [email protected]


Also published on Medium.