Ethiopia votes amid unrest and reform test

Millions of Ethiopians began voting on Monday in the country’s 7th General Election, a high-stakes parliamentary and regional contest expected to consolidate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party while testing public confidence in the electoral process.

More than 50 million people are registered to vote across Africa’s second most populous country, where polling stations opened after months of voter registration, candidate nominations, political campaigns, public debates and logistical preparations led by the National Election Board of Ethiopia. The vote will determine seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives and regional councils, with the party commanding a parliamentary majority positioned to form the next government.

Abiy, 49, is seeking a renewed mandate after a turbulent five years marked by war, insurgency, economic strain and ambitious reform pledges. His Prosperity Party enters the contest as the dominant political force, building on its sweeping 2021 victory, when it secured 410 of 484 contested parliamentary seats. The party’s campaign has centred on growth, infrastructure, food security and national unity, with officials projecting economic expansion above 10 per cent in 2026.

The election is being watched closely beyond Ethiopia’s borders because of the country’s strategic weight in the Horn of Africa, its population of about 135 million, and its role in regional security, migration, Nile diplomacy and Red Sea access politics. Ethiopia remains a major partner for Gulf states, Western governments and African institutions, while its internal stability has implications for Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Kenya.

Yet the ballot is taking place against a difficult security backdrop. Voting will not be held in Tigray, where the electoral board cited unfavourable conditions following the 2020-2022 civil war and continuing political uncertainty. The conflict left deep political wounds and caused mass displacement, with researchers estimating hundreds of thousands of deaths. Tensions in the region have persisted despite the peace agreement that ended large-scale fighting.

Security concerns have also affected parts of Amhara, where the Fano militia has controlled stretches of rural territory since 2023. At least eight constituencies in the region are not expected to vote. Oromiya, Abiy’s home region and Ethiopia’s largest, has also faced years of violence involving government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army, with civilians caught between armed groups, security operations and local grievances.

Opposition parties face an uneven contest. Several groups remain weakened by internal divisions, resource constraints and claims of administrative pressure. Critics say arrests, legal restrictions and intimidation have narrowed political space, while the government argues that the vote reflects institutional progress and that security measures are necessary to protect citizens and polling operations.

The National Election Board, chaired by Melatwork Hailu, has sought to project readiness and neutrality, warning parties against campaigning after the official deadline and stressing the importance of orderly voting. Digital tools have been used in parts of the registration process, though manual registration at polling stations remains central. Election observers from regional bodies and diplomatic missions are monitoring the process, adding scrutiny to a contest likely to draw debate over participation, access and credibility.

Abiy’s political journey remains central to the election narrative. He came to power in 2018 after mass protests weakened the long-ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. Early reforms, prisoner releases, peace efforts with Eritrea and promises of political opening brought international acclaim, including the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. The optimism later faded as war in Tigray, unrest in Oromiya and Amhara, media restrictions and political arrests reshaped perceptions of his administration.

Economic performance is another defining issue. Ethiopia has continued to pursue liberalisation, debt restructuring, infrastructure expansion and stronger private investment, while households have faced inflation, currency pressure and job-market strains. The government is presenting food security gains and growth projections as evidence of resilience, but opposition figures and civil society voices argue that conflict, displacement and political uncertainty have limited the benefits for many communities.

The 2026 ballot also carries importance because Ethiopia’s parliamentary system does not allow voters to elect the prime minister directly. Constituency results will decide the balance in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, and the majority party or coalition will select the head of government. With the Prosperity Party widely expected to dominate, the larger question is whether the vote strengthens institutional legitimacy or deepens concerns over exclusion in conflict-affected regions.

Preliminary political trends point to a strong ruling-party performance, but turnout, the conduct of polling, the handling of complaints and the participation of opposition candidates will shape domestic and international assessments. Final results are expected within days, with the electoral board facing pressure to demonstrate transparency in a country where previous elections have been delayed, contested or disrupted by insecurity.