Gold vaults above $4,200 as yields retreat

Gold prices surged above $4,200 an ounce on Wednesday as weaker US employment data, a softer dollar and falling Treasury yields drove investors towards the precious metal, although claims that bullion gained 4.5% during the day appeared to overstate the move recorded by leading benchmarks.

Spot gold climbed more than 3% to about $4,200 an ounce, its highest level since late June. US gold futures advanced roughly 2.6% to around $4,261, placing the actively traded contract close to the $4,255 level cited in social-media posts.

The 4.5% figure broadly reflected gold’s gain over several trading sessions rather than a verified single-day increase. The distinction is significant because spot prices, futures contracts and cryptocurrency-style market trackers can use different opening times, reference prices and valuation methods.

Gold accelerated after data showed that US private employers added only 44,000 jobs in July. The reading was below market expectations and less than half the downwardly revised increase of 95,000 recorded in June.

Signs of weaker hiring strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would have less room to maintain restrictive monetary conditions. Lower interest-rate expectations tend to support gold because the metal pays no interest and becomes more competitive when returns available from government bonds decline.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell towards 4.60%, compared with about 4.75% late last week. The dollar also weakened, reducing the cost of purchasing bullion for investors using other currencies.

Gold’s advance came despite signs of possible diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran. Such developments would ordinarily reduce demand for traditional safe-haven assets. However, prospects of lower oil prices also eased concerns that energy costs could intensify inflation and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Markets reduced the estimated probability of a September rate increase to about 57%, from roughly 67% earlier. Traders continued to assess conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials, with some policymakers emphasising inflation risks while others pointed to slowing economic activity.

The employment figures shifted attention towards the official US jobs report due later in the week. A weak payrolls reading could reinforce expectations of a softer policy path, while stronger-than-expected wage or hiring data could revive pressure on bonds and gold.

The claim that Wednesday’s movement added $1.3 trillion to gold’s market capitalisation is mathematically plausible only when applied to the estimated value of virtually all gold mined throughout history. Around 219,900 tonnes of gold were estimated to exist above ground at the end of 2025.

At prices near $4,255 an ounce, that stock would be valued at close to $30 trillion. A 4.5% increase would therefore produce a theoretical valuation gain of about $1.3 trillion.

The calculation does not represent money flowing into the market. Much of the world’s gold is held as jewellery, official reserves, bars, coins, industrial material and museum or religious holdings. Large portions are not available for daily trading, while the actual investible market is substantially smaller.

Market capitalisation is also less straightforward for gold than for a listed company or cryptocurrency. A company’s valuation is calculated by multiplying its share price by outstanding shares. Gold has no single issuer, unified exchange or precisely measurable circulating supply.

The rally spread across precious metals. Silver jumped more than 4% to around $62 an ounce, while platinum and palladium posted smaller advances. Silver benefited from both safe-haven demand and its role as an industrial metal.

Bullion nevertheless remained below the record above $5,300 reached in January. Gold had fallen sharply from that peak as the dollar strengthened, bond yields climbed and investors reassessed the inflationary consequences of conflict and disruption to energy supplies.