RBI’s rupee shield lifts forward book

Reserve Bank of India has pushed its net short dollar position past $110 billion, taking a key currency-defence tool to a record high as pressure on the rupee forces heavier use of forward-market intervention.

The rise marks a sharp escalation in the central bank’s effort to cushion the currency after the rupee weakened to a record low near 97 to the dollar on 20 May. The position, built through forward and offshore derivative contracts, shows how the central bank has increasingly relied on future dollar sales rather than only spot-market intervention to manage disorderly moves in the exchange rate.

The rupee traded around 95.3 to the dollar on 8 June, giving back part of the gains made after the central bank announced measures on 5 June to attract foreign-currency inflows and ease pressure on the balance of payments. The currency had closed near 94.95 on 5 June, its strongest one-day performance in about two months, after the measures were unveiled.

Forward-market intervention allows the central bank to signal dollar availability without immediately drawing down spot reserves. By selling dollars for future delivery, the RBI can influence market expectations, compress forward premiums and reduce one-way speculative pressure against the rupee. The method, however, creates future obligations and can complicate liquidity management when contracts mature.

The central bank’s net short forward book had already reached about $104 billion by the end of March, rising sharply from around $77 billion a month earlier. The move beyond $110 billion indicates that intervention continued through May and early June as global and domestic pressures intensified.

Oil prices, portfolio outflows, a firm dollar and geopolitical tensions have weighed on the rupee through much of the year. India’s large crude import bill makes the currency sensitive to oil-market swings, while higher US yields reduce the appeal of emerging-market assets. Equity outflows have added to the pressure, leaving the central bank to balance currency stability with the need to preserve reserves and domestic liquidity.

The RBI’s latest package seeks to reduce that burden by bringing in dollar flows rather than relying only on intervention. Measures include concessional foreign-exchange swaps for public-sector companies raising external commercial borrowings, support for banks mobilising foreign-currency non-resident deposits, and expanded access for overseas investors to longer-tenor government securities under the fully accessible route. Concentration limits for such investments were also relaxed.

The government’s decision to exempt overseas investors from capital gains tax on certain government bond transactions has strengthened the policy push. Market expectations now centre on whether these steps can draw $30 billion to $50 billion in medium-term inflows, with a higher figure possible if global bond investors increase allocations.

The central bank has avoided using interest-rate increases as the primary defence for the rupee, preferring targeted foreign-exchange and inflow measures. That approach reflects the RBI’s effort to separate currency management from domestic monetary policy. Keeping policy rates focused on inflation and growth gives the central bank room to support activity while using reserves, swaps and forward positions to contain currency volatility.

Foreign-exchange reserves remain sizeable, though they have fallen from their February peak as the central bank intervened to smooth the rupee’s decline. The reserves provide an important buffer, but the growing forward position shows that the defence is no longer confined to visible reserve movements. Market participants are watching both the headline reserves number and the maturity profile of the forward book for signs of future stress.

A large net short dollar position is not unusual during periods of currency strain, but the scale now matters. When contracts mature, the central bank must either deliver dollars, roll positions forward, or offset the impact through liquidity operations. Each option carries trade-offs for money-market rates, banking-system liquidity and the credibility of currency management.

For importers, the intervention has helped reduce the risk of abrupt rupee depreciation, though hedging costs and uncertainty remain elevated. Exporters face a more complex picture, as a weaker rupee supports earnings in local-currency terms but volatility makes pricing and cash-flow planning harder. Banks, meanwhile, are adjusting positions as forward premiums move in response to central bank activity.