War squeeze slows India’s oil demand growth

India’s oil demand growth is heading for its weakest annual pace since the pandemic as the Middle East conflict pushes up crude and fuel costs, squeezes refiners and curbs consumption across transport, aviation and industrial sectors.

Consumption growth in the world’s third-largest crude importer is now forecast at about 78,000 barrels a day for 2026, nearly 40 per cent below pre-war expectations. Excluding the Covid-hit year of 2020, that would mark the slowest expansion in a decade for an economy that has otherwise been one of the main pillars of global oil-demand growth.

The downgrade reflects the widening economic impact of the war involving Iran, which began at the end of February and disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. International crude prices have risen sharply from pre-conflict levels, while refined product markets have tightened as Gulf exports of fuels and feedstocks remain constrained.

India’s reliance on imported crude and petroleum products has amplified the pressure. Higher energy prices are feeding into transport costs, refinery margins, aviation fuel expenses and household fuel supply management. A weaker rupee has added to the burden by increasing the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated imports.

State-run refiners have raised some fuel prices modestly, but domestic retail prices remain well below market-reflective levels. Oil ministry estimates indicate that processors have been losing about ₹6 billion a day on sales of diesel, petrol and liquefied petroleum gas. The strain has revived concerns over under-recoveries at state-controlled retailers, even as authorities seek to shield households and small businesses from a sharper fuel-price shock.

Diesel, the largest component of petroleum product consumption, is showing the clearest signs of stress. It powers trucks, tractors, construction equipment and a large portion of industrial activity. Forecasts for diesel-demand growth have been cut heavily, with some estimates suggesting growth may slow to only 4,000 to 5,000 barrels a day, compared with earlier expectations of 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day.

Transport operators say higher running costs are already hurting freight movement. Rajendra Kapoor, president of the All India Motor and Goods Transport Association, said customers were resisting higher freight charges even as fuel expenses had risen. He estimated that fleet movement had fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent, affecting the movement of farm goods, industrial raw materials and retail products.

Petrol demand remains more resilient because passenger mobility has held up better than heavy freight. Even so, growth projections for petrol have been cut by about 40 per cent to around 38,000 barrels a day. Urban commuting, private vehicle use and two-wheeler demand continue to support consumption, but high prices and government appeals for fuel conservation are tempering growth.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged people to save fuel by working from home where possible, using public transport and avoiding non-essential overseas travel. Such measures indicate how the energy shock has moved beyond refinery balance sheets into wider economic management.

Aviation turbine fuel is another area under pressure. Jet fuel costs account for a major share of airline operating expenses, and the loss of Middle East product exports has tightened supplies. Forecasts for jet fuel growth have been halved by some market consultants, while airlines face the twin challenge of higher fuel bills and weaker discretionary travel demand in price-sensitive segments.

Liquefied petroleum gas has also been hit by supply disruptions. April consumption fell to about 2.2 million metric tonnes, down more than 16 per cent from a year earlier, as import flows were affected. Authorities have asked state fuel retailers to build LPG storage capacity equivalent to 30 days of demand, a move aimed at strengthening energy security against further disruptions.

Official petroleum data showed total product consumption at 19.30 million metric tonnes in April, down 4.6 per cent from a year earlier. The contraction followed a record high of 21.75 million tonnes in December 2025, underlining the speed with which the war-related price shock has altered demand conditions.

Global oil-market agencies also disagree over the depth of the slowdown. Some forecasts still expect worldwide demand to rise this year, while others now see a contraction because of weaker refinery runs, reduced petrochemical feedstock availability and lower aviation activity. The sharpest downgrades have been concentrated in Asia, where import-dependent economies are most exposed to disruption in Gulf supply chains.