Fuel curbs expose Delhi’s fiscal strain

New Delhi has moved into crisis-management mode as the war in Iran raises fuel costs, strains the rupee and forces the Centre to balance energy security against its deficit-reduction pledge.

The latest response includes curbs on bulk diesel purchases at retail outlets, a willingness to let the fiscal deficit widen beyond the Budget target, and measures to pull in overseas capital as policymakers try to contain pressure on inflation, subsidies and the balance of payments. The measures mark a sharp shift from the calmer macroeconomic backdrop at the start of the financial year, when lower inflation and steady growth had given authorities room to focus on consolidation.

Retail fuel outlets run by public sector oil marketing companies have been told to cap high-speed diesel sales at 200 litres per customer or vehicle per day. The restriction, planned for up to 90 days, is aimed at preventing hoarding and stopping commercial users from shifting large purchases to retail pumps, where prices are lower than bulk supply rates. Diesel bought from retail outlets cannot be resold, and dealers have been asked to ensure that sales go directly into vehicle tanks or approved containers.

The decision followed a surge in purchases from retail pumps after the conflict in West Asia widened the gap between retail and bulk diesel prices. Trucking firms, contractors and other commercial users have sought cheaper supplies, adding pressure on state-run fuel retailers that already carry most of the retail burden. Diesel accounts for a large share of transport and farm fuel demand, making any disruption politically sensitive as the kharif sowing season approaches.

The fiscal impact is becoming harder to ignore. The Budget had set the fiscal deficit target for 2026-27 at 4.3% of gross domestic product, after 4.4% in the revised estimate for 2025-26. Officials are now prepared to tolerate a higher deficit, potentially around 4.8% of GDP, if subsidy costs and energy-related spending rise further. Fertiliser subsidies are also expected to climb as global input costs move up, while fuel-related tax and pricing decisions could reduce revenue flexibility.

Spending cuts across ministries are being examined, though the Centre is likely to avoid sharp reductions in capital expenditure unless market conditions deteriorate further. Infrastructure spending has been one of the main pillars of growth in the past few years, and cutting it too deeply would risk weakening private investment at a time when companies are already facing higher transport and raw material costs.

The rupee has become the other pressure point. It strengthened on Friday after Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, but the currency remains vulnerable to oil spikes because India depends heavily on imported crude. The Reserve Bank of India has introduced measures to attract dollar inflows, including support for foreign currency deposits and lower-cost hedging routes for overseas borrowing by state-run companies. Large lenders are preparing dollar bond issues, and banks expect a stronger push to tap non-resident deposits over the coming months.

Inflation has also started to reflect the shock. Retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, with food and fuel costs moving higher. The reading remains close to the central bank’s 4% target, but the risk is that higher diesel prices feed into freight, farm operations and food distribution. Any weak monsoon spell linked to El Niño conditions would add another layer of pressure.