Musk comment puts spotlight on India’s fertility shift

Elon Musk’s reaction to a viral post on India’s falling fertility rate has pushed the country’s demographic transition into a wider global debate, as official data show the national total fertility rate at 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement benchmark of 2.1.

Musk responded on X to a post claiming that India’s birth rate had fallen below replacement level, writing that the trend had appeared “among those most educated” many years earlier. His comment drew attention because the Tesla and SpaceX chief has repeatedly argued that declining birth rates pose a long-term risk to economies, innovation and social stability.

The viral post said India’s fertility rate had fallen from 2.3 to 1.9 over a decade and cited Delhi’s rate at 1.2, among the lowest in the country. Official demographic data broadly support the decline, though the claim that the fall below replacement level has happened for the first time needs qualification. India’s total fertility rate stood at 1.9 in 2024, the same level recorded for 2023, meaning the country has already been below the conventional replacement threshold.

The latest figures mark a sharp departure from long-running anxieties about population growth. India, with an estimated population of more than 1.4 billion, overtook China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Yet the fertility trend now points to a slower population expansion in the coming decades, with regional variation likely to shape labour supply, welfare planning and state-level fiscal priorities.

Delhi’s total fertility rate of 1.2 highlights the depth of the shift in urban centres, where higher education levels, later marriage, higher housing costs, career pressures and rising aspirations have contributed to smaller families. Several southern and western states have also remained below replacement level for years, while parts of northern and central India continue to record comparatively higher fertility.

Only a small group of states remains above the replacement threshold. Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand continue to report fertility levels above 2.1, keeping national population momentum alive even as most states move towards smaller family norms. The divergence has implications for political representation, public finance and migration, particularly as lower-fertility states age faster while higher-fertility states continue to add younger workers.

Demographers distinguish between a falling fertility rate and immediate population decline. India’s population will continue to grow for some time because of demographic momentum: a large base of people in reproductive age groups will keep births high even when the average number of children per woman falls. The larger policy issue is not a sudden fall in population, but the speed at which the age structure changes.

Musk’s intervention reflects a view he has voiced across countries, including Japan, South Korea, China and several European economies, where low fertility has triggered concerns about shrinking workforces and mounting pressure on pension and health systems. His comment on India stands out because the country has long been seen as a counterweight to ageing economies, with a large young population expected to support growth.

India’s demographic advantage remains substantial, but the window is not permanent. A lower fertility rate can help families invest more in each child’s education and health, while also reducing pressure on land, housing and public services. At the same time, it places greater urgency on job creation, women’s workforce participation, skilling, healthcare and pension coverage before the population ages more visibly.

Education plays a central role in the fertility shift. Women with greater access to schooling and employment tend to marry later and have fewer children. Urbanisation has reinforced the trend by raising the cost of child-rearing and changing family expectations. The pattern is not unique to India, but its scale is significant because of the country’s population size and uneven development across regions.

The decline also complicates older political narratives around population control. States that achieved lower fertility earlier have argued that they should not be penalised in future federal arrangements, while states with higher fertility still face pressure to improve education, healthcare and women’s economic participation. Any future delimitation of parliamentary seats is likely to bring these tensions into sharper focus.

Public health indicators add another layer to the debate. Lower fertility often accompanies improvements in child survival, maternal health and access to contraception. However, uneven access to quality healthcare, nutrition and education means the benefits are not distributed equally. Rural families, poorer households and marginalised communities may face different constraints from urban professional families choosing to have fewer children.

India’s policy challenge is therefore more complex than simply reversing a fertility decline or celebrating it. The country must prepare for a future in which some regions face ageing and labour shortages while others continue to supply young workers. That will require better migration planning, stronger urban infrastructure, more reliable social security and greater investment in human capital.