Forex reserves scale new peak after dollar surge

India’s foreign-exchange reserves climbed to an all-time high of $729.33 billion as strong dollar inflows boosted the country’s external buffer and gave the Reserve Bank of India greater room to manage currency volatility.

The reserves increased by $12.42 billion in the week ended August 21, extending their rise for an eighth consecutive week. The latest accumulation pushed the stockpile above the previous record of about $728.5 billion reached in February and marked an increase of roughly $63 billion over eight weeks.

Foreign currency assets, which form the largest part of the reserves, rose by $9.48 billion during the week to $591.33 billion. Gold reserves climbed by $2.80 billion to $114.22 billion, reflecting valuation gains as well as changes in reserve holdings.

Special Drawing Rights increased by $112 million to $18.85 billion, while the country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund rose by $26 million to $4.93 billion. Total reserves were $38.22 billion higher than at the end of March and about $38.61 billion above their level a year earlier.

The sharp build-up follows measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India in June to strengthen capital inflows during a period of pressure on the rupee and heightened uncertainty in global financial and energy markets. The steps provided favourable foreign-exchange swap arrangements for overseas deposits and borrowing programmes, encouraging banks and companies to bring additional dollars into the country.

Nearly $73 billion was mobilised through the programmes between early June and August 21, with foreign currency non-resident bank deposits accounting for about $65 billion. The scale of the response prompted the central bank to bring forward the closure of the special swap facility linked to these deposits.

Deposits mobilised until August 31 remain eligible under the scheme, while banks can complete qualifying swaps with the central bank until September 11. Facilities supporting external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowing are scheduled to remain available until December 31.

The programme allows eligible foreign-currency funds to be swapped with the Reserve Bank of India, enabling the central bank to absorb dollars while supplying rupee liquidity to participating institutions. The structure reduces hedging costs for banks and borrowers and has made overseas fund-raising more attractive at a time when global borrowing conditions remain demanding.

Banks have also stepped up offshore debt issuance. Union Bank of India returned to the dollar bond market this month after a 12-year absence, raising $600 million through three-year and five-year securities. State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda have also raised dollar funds, while other lenders have used international financial centres and overseas markets to secure foreign-currency financing. Banks collectively raised more than $11 billion through offshore bond issuance from June into August.

The inflows have helped stabilise the rupee after months of pressure from portfolio withdrawals, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding global interest rates. The currency ended Friday at about 95.38 to the dollar, gaining around 0.3% over the week as dollar supplies increased ahead of the closure of the deposit window.

The Reserve Bank of India has continued to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to limit excessive movements rather than defend a specific exchange rate. Its enlarged reserves provide greater capacity to sell dollars when needed while absorbing incoming foreign currency when supply becomes unusually heavy.

The strengthened reserve position is particularly significant because India remains dependent on imported crude oil and other commodities priced in dollars. A larger foreign-exchange buffer can soften the impact of sudden increases in energy prices, capital outflows or global market disruption, although sustained intervention can also influence domestic liquidity.

External risks remain substantial. Oil prices have stayed elevated amid geopolitical disruptions, while changes in US monetary policy could influence capital flows towards emerging markets. A stronger dollar or higher US interest rates could again increase pressure on the rupee and other Asian currencies.

For policymakers, the surge in reserves also creates a balancing challenge. Large dollar purchases add rupee liquidity to the financial system, potentially requiring the central bank to absorb excess funds through other instruments. At the same time, allowing the rupee to strengthen too sharply because of temporary inflows could affect exporters and create greater currency volatility once those flows diminish.