Coal India tempers output as stocks swell

Coal India Ltd cut coal production in May by 11.6 per cent year-on-year to 56.13 million tonnes, underscoring a shift in the country’s energy market as high inventories, uneven industrial demand and rising non-fossil capacity alter the operating rhythm of the world’s largest coal miner.

The May figure, based on provisional operational data for the month ended 31 May, came against a monthly target of 66.28 million tonnes. Coal offtake, the volume supplied to power utilities and other customers, rose 2.26 per cent to 66.18 million tonnes, showing that dispatches continued to outpace production as the company worked down inventories rather than pushing output at full pace.

The fall marks the second straight month of reduced production after April output dropped 9.7 per cent to 56.1 million tonnes. The pattern points to a deliberate balancing act by Coal India, which remains central to electricity security but is also facing the consequences of heavy stock accumulation at mines and the growing role of solar, wind, hydro and nuclear generation in meeting demand.

Coal India, through its subsidiaries, accounts for about four-fifths of domestic coal output. Its production in the first two months of the 2026-27 financial year stood at 112.19 million tonnes, below the target of 127.85 million tonnes. The company’s annual production target for the year is 815 million tonnes, a demanding goal at a time when the power market is becoming more seasonal and less dependent on continuous coal expansion.

Demand for coal has not collapsed. Peak electricity demand touched a record level of about 270.8 gigawatts in May as a severe heatwave lifted cooling needs across several regions. Coal-fired plants remain the backbone of the grid, generating more than 70 per cent of electricity despite the rapid expansion of non-fossil capacity. Yet the pressure on Coal India is no longer simply to mine more. It is to supply coal to the right locations at the right time while avoiding excessive stock build-up at pitheads.

Inventories have become a key concern. Coal stocks across the system stood at about 168 million tonnes in late May, including 47.6 million tonnes at power plants and 113.5 million tonnes at Coal India mine-heads. The company has said those reserves are enough for 19 days of consumption. Mine-head stocks were about 10 per cent higher than a year earlier, creating operational and financial incentives to moderate production while dispatches catch up.

The May subsidiary-wise data showed a mixed picture. Mahanadi Coalfields produced 14.26 million tonnes, about 20.1 per cent lower than a year earlier, while Northern Coalfields fell 23.69 per cent to 9.47 million tonnes. Bharat Coking Coal declined 25.51 per cent to 2.28 million tonnes. Western Coalfields dropped 8.4 per cent and Eastern Coalfields was down 3.63 per cent. South Eastern Coalfields was the exception, increasing output 4.53 per cent to 14.42 million tonnes, while Central Coalfields edged up 0.44 per cent to 6.2 million tonnes.

The company’s offtake profile was more resilient. Mahanadi Coalfields dispatched 18.34 million tonnes in May, up 5.77 per cent, while Central Coalfields rose 17.45 per cent and Eastern Coalfields gained 6.48 per cent. South Eastern Coalfields increased dispatches by 3.18 per cent. The weaker areas included Bharat Coking Coal, where offtake fell 16.16 per cent, and Northern Coalfields, down 8.44 per cent.

The wider power sector is changing quickly. Non-fossil fuel capacity reached 283.46 gigawatts by the end of March, including 150.26 gigawatts of solar, 56.09 gigawatts of wind, 51.41 gigawatts of large hydro and 8.78 gigawatts of nuclear power. Renewable energy additions in 2025-26 were driven mainly by solar, which has become a significant contributor during daylight peaks. Even so, the grid still leans heavily on coal after sunset and during periods when renewable output weakens.

That split has created a more complex operating environment. Coal India is being asked to ensure reliability during heatwaves, support power plants with low stocks and maintain supplies to non-power consumers, while policymakers are also pushing cleaner energy, storage and transmission upgrades. The result is a coal market where peak demand can be exceptionally strong even as average growth in coal consumption becomes less predictable.