RBI swap window sharpens dollar pull

A small change in central bank wording has given banks fresh room to mobilise foreign-currency deposits, potentially drawing as much as $50 billion into India at a time when the rupee and external balances are under pressure.

The Reserve Bank of India’s June package centres on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposits, or FCNR deposits, a long-used channel through which overseas citizens place foreign-currency funds with banks. The decisive shift lies in the way the central bank has structured the swap window and permitted banks to use incentives, including leverage, to make the deposits more attractive to wealthy overseas savers.

Under the scheme, banks can mobilise fresh three- to five-year FCNR deposits between 8 June and 30 September 2026 and swap the dollars with the RBI. The facility effectively removes the usual hedging burden that makes such deposits expensive for banks, as the central bank absorbs the foreign-exchange cost. The operational window will remain available until mid-October for eligible deposits raised during the mobilisation period.

The change has revived memories of 2013, when a similar facility helped banks raise about $34 billion during a period of sharp rupee weakness. This time, estimates from market participants range from about $20 billion to nearly $50 billion, depending on deposit pricing, rupee expectations, global interest rates and the ability of banks to market the product aggressively in the Gulf, North America, Britain and other diaspora-heavy markets.

Punjab National Bank chief executive Ashok Chandra has said banks could collectively raise $35 billion to $40 billion, with his own institution aiming for about $2.5 billion to $3 billion. Other lenders, including Canara Bank, Federal Bank and Indian Bank, are expected to compete for deposits by offering returns that can compare favourably with low-risk dollar assets, particularly once the swap benefit is factored into their pricing.

The subtle but consequential part of the circular is the permission for banks to offer leverage to depositors. That means eligible clients may be able to borrow abroad and place the proceeds into FCNR deposits, amplifying inflows beyond what would have arrived through ordinary savings alone. Market analysts see this as the feature that could lift the scheme from a modest stabilisation tool into a sizeable capital-flow channel.

The RBI has paired the deposit push with broader measures designed to deepen debt-market participation and ease pressure on the currency. These include expanding access to government securities, relaxing certain concentration limits, and improving the investment framework for foreign portfolio investors. The package comes after the rupee touched record lows, weighed down by elevated crude prices, portfolio outflows and a stronger dollar environment.

The immediate market reaction has been visible in government bonds. Short-end yields have fallen as banks and overseas investors reassessed the likely liquidity impact of dollar inflows converted into rupees. The two- to five-year segment has drawn stronger demand, while the curve has steepened as longer tenors remain more exposed to global rate movements and fiscal supply concerns.

For banks, the economics are straightforward. Without central bank support, hedging a multi-year dollar liability into rupees can wipe out much of the advantage of raising FCNR deposits. With the RBI taking that cost away, lenders can offer higher headline rates to overseas depositors while still obtaining rupee liquidity at competitive levels. The exemption from reserve requirements on eligible deposits further improves the economics by freeing banks from maintaining cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio buffers on those funds.

The policy also serves a macroeconomic purpose. Large dollar inflows can strengthen reserves, cushion the balance of payments and reduce the need for more aggressive currency-market intervention. They can also help offset pressure from oil import costs and equity-market withdrawals, both of which have weighed on external sentiment during the current financial year.

Yet the scheme carries risks. Leveraged deposits can be sensitive to interest-rate differentials and currency expectations. If global yields move sharply higher or confidence in the rupee weakens, flows may become less durable. The one-year lock-in reduces early withdrawal risk, but it does not fully eliminate rollover pressure once deposits mature. Banks also need to manage concentration risk, especially if a large share of funds comes from a narrow group of depositors or geographies.