Three Years After Founding, INDIA Bloc Is Facing Uncertainty On Its Future

By Nitya Chakraborty

The opposition INDIA bloc which completed its three years on June 23 is passing through a critical period when the very foundation of this alliance, the strong regional parties, are shattered by defections and splits backed by the ruling party BJP. Mamata Banerjee who gave the name of the alliance at the founding conclave in Patna on June 23, 2023, is out of power from West Bengal in the recent state assembly elections. What is more damaging is that most of the MPs and MLAs of her Trinamool Congress have disowned her virtually making her a non entity in politics.

TMC with its 28 Lok Sabha members in Lok Sabha was a major regional party engaged in fighting the BJP at the national plane. The marginalization of Mamata and her TMC has immensely affected the power of the INDIA bloc vis a vis BJP at national level. Both the dissidents MPs and the legislators of TMC are presently being guided by the BJP. They are expected to function as the B team of the BJP in both Lok Sabha and in the West Bengal assembly.

Along with marginalization of Mamata, UBT Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray is also facing a similar situation as six rebel MPs of his party joined the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena on Monday reducing his party’s number in Parliament to three. Shinde’s Sena is a part of NDA, so the BJP will get the support of another six members in Parliament. Only last month, seven MPs of AAP defected to the BJP. AAP is not attending INDIA bloc due its differences with the Congress but the AAP is committed to fight BJP on national plane along with INDIA bloc parties.

After the political setbacks to the two major INDIA bloc partners TMC and UBT Sena, the central BJP is focusing on splitting the powerful Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh which has 37 seats in Lok Sabha . UP is going for state assembly polls in early 2027..UP is politically very important for BJP. All sorts of reports are coming from Lucknow about nocturnal meetings organized by the state BJP for some SP Lok Sabha members, but still now, no SP MP or MLA has indicated any intention in public. SP President Akhilesh Yadav is alert. He has refuted all reports about split in the SP. But the central leadership of BJP is determined to organize the split before the assembly polls. So the INDIA Bloc partners Congress and the SP have to be very vigilant.

As regards Tamil Nadu, the loss of DMK for the INDIA Bloc has also its adverse impact on the total unity of INDIA Bloc. DMK supremo M K Stalin has been a consistent fighter against the BJP till the state assembly results were out on May 4 and the Congress extended support to Vijay for chief ministership without having any talks with the party’s long time ally DMK. Earlier DMK, at the instance of the Left parties said that the Party would be fighting BJP on national plane, but in recent days, the DMK attitude towards the Congress and INDIA bloc has stiffened. This gives a big opportunity to the BJP to fish in the volatile politics of Tamil Nadu.

TN chief minister Vijay’s views about BJP and the INDIA bloc have not been fully transparent. Vijay is vulnerable to the BJP pressure if he thinks that that helps his party. Rahul Gandhi is quite close to Vijay. He must ensure that TVK joins INDIA bloc and agrees to its official position to fight the BJP in Lok Sabha elections. DMK was the leader of INDIA bloc in Tamil Nadu and Stalin led the bloc quite well by accommodating his allies including the Left parties. In 2029 Lok Sabha elections, Congress and the CPI, CPI(M) will have to fully depend on Vijay for seat sharing..It is not sure whether Vijay will be as cooperative as Stalin was in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Amidst this bad patches in the fortunes of the INDIA Bloc partners, Rahul Gandhi is continuing his consistent fight against the BJP-RSS and focusing in a big way for ideological battle against the BJP and the RSS. His speech at the June 8 meeting of the INDIA bloc in Delhi made sense since lot of analysis was there about the failings of the bloc partners including the Congress. Resolve was made for taking corrective action.

The ground reality is that the Congress has to shoulder the main responsibility of electoral offensive in the coming three years preceding the holding of Lok Sabha polls in 2029. 2029 is special since the BJP is aiming at establishing a one nation one party goal through this elections. The next constitutional amendment to convert India into a Hindu Rashtra is also on agenda after 2029 Lok Sabha elections. So the next three years are crucial for INDIA bloc in rebuilding the bloc and uniting all the forces including the civil society groups against the BJP.

In 2027, seven states are going for assembly elections, Out of this seven, excepting in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, in all other five states, the Congress is the principal INDIA bloc party taking on the BJP and NDA. These states are Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, Himachal and Gujarat. In UP, the Congress has to arrive at an electoral understanding with the SP recognizing that SP is the major partner and the seat sharing will be made on the basis of ground reality. As regards Punjab, AAP is the dominant player followed by the Congress. Here there is no threat from the BJP. So it can be a contest between AAP and the Congress.

In 2028, state polls will be held in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, and Karnataka among others. These are the states the Congress has to improve its performance. The win of INDIA bloc partners in the state assembly elections can only generate the necessary momentum for the Lok Sabha polls in April/May 2029. That way, the Congress and to some extent SP will have to lead the INDIA Bloc during this crucial period. The five point programme adopted at the June 8 meeting, has to be followed up in true spirit

After the INDIA bloc founding in June 2023, the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls were quite favourable for the partners. BJP was reduced to 240 from the earlier majority figure. But the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah took corrective steps and in the next two years, the BJP has turned the electoral arithmetic in its favour. INDIA Bloc has also to do correctives and ensure that the united struggles continue along with the measures for electoral preparedness. Congress, SP, RJD and the Left have to shoulder the ideological task for taking on the BJP-RSS combo. (IPA Service)