Rahul-Mamata Strategic Alliance Should Infuse Fresh Energy In INDIA Bloc

By T N Ashok

By the time Narendra Modi crossed Jawaharlal Nehru’s record as India’s longest-serving elected Prime Minister in continuous office, the country’s political landscape had already begun to resemble a battlefield after a great storm.

The old certainties have vanished. Alliances that appeared permanent are fraying. Regional satraps are calculating survival. Political parties once united by opposition to the BJP are now questioning whether they can survive independently in an era increasingly dominated by national narratives, presidential-style politics, and relentless electoral machinery.

At the centre of the latest drama stands West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee.

In New Delhi this week, a series of meetings between Mamata Banerjee, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Abhishek Banerjee ignited fevered speculation that the Trinamool Congress might merge with the Congress. The rumours gained momentum because of the unprecedented crisis confronting the TMC after its devastating setback in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections and the subsequent rebellion within the party.

Yet both Congress and TMC leaders have categorically denied any merger discussions. Publicly, both sides insist there is no proposal on the table. Privately, however, they acknowledge the need for closer coordination against the BJP.

The distinction is important. A merger would effectively mean the end of the Trinamool’s independent identity, something Mamata Banerjee has spent nearly three decades building. What is more plausible is a strategic partnership that allows both parties to pool resources, share parliamentary space and present a united front before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

For the TMC, the benefits are obvious. Congress remains the only opposition party with a genuine national footprint. In a period when the Trinamool is battling defections and factionalism, an understanding with Congress offers political legitimacy, organisational support and protection from further isolation. Some defectors who left primarily because of internal leadership disputes could potentially return if a broader anti-BJP platform emerges. Yet others who have already aligned with rebel factions or the NDA are unlikely to be persuaded back.

Whether such cooperation improves prospects in 2029 depends on arithmetic. In West Bengal, vote consolidation between Congress, Left remnants and the TMC could significantly improve opposition chances against the BJP. Nationally, however, the challenge is far more complex.

The Congress leadership meeting in Delhi reflects precisely this dilemma. The agenda is believed to revolve around rebuilding opposition coordination after recent setbacks, assessing the future of the INDIA bloc, strengthening state-level organisations and preparing for a sequence of crucial state elections beginning with Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in 2027.

A notable participant is Karnataka Chief Minister D. K. Shivakumar, who recently assumed office after a long internal power-sharing arrangement within the Congress. Shivakumar brings more than just a state government to the table.

He is widely regarded as one of the party’s most effective organisers and fundraisers. Karnataka remains the Congress’s most important large-state success story, and party strategists hope elements of its electoral model can be replicated elsewhere. The influence of election strategist Sunil Kanugolu, now closely associated with Shivakumar’s administration, further enhances Karnataka’s importance in Congress calculations.

Yet the opposition’s larger problem is fragmentation. The June 8 INDIA bloc conclave exposed deep fissures. The absence of the DMK and AAP was not merely symbolic. It reflected fundamental disagreements over leadership, strategy and regional interests.

The DMK’s decision to distance itself from the bloc follows accusations that Congress has sought understandings with rival forces in Tamil Nadu, including formations associated with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK. Relations between AAP and Congress remain burdened by years of rivalry despite periodic cooperation against the BJP.

Consequently, the INDIA bloc now resembles a coalition searching for a common purpose after the glue that held it together began to weaken. Fevicol ka Jod abhu mazbhoot nahin.

The BJP, meanwhile, is preparing for a very different contest. For the first time since 2014, it faces genuine economic anxieties among voters. Across urban and semi-urban India, unemployment, underemployment, stagnant incomes and rising household costs have become recurring concerns. The economic consequences of global instability, particularly disruptions following the Iran conflict, have fed inflationary pressures and heightened public anxiety about fuel prices, food costs and job creation.

Conversations in tea stalls from Kanpur to Coimbatore increasingly revolve around economic opportunity rather than ideological identity alone. Social media is ablaze with anti BJP memes with PM Modi being at the center of it.

Yet the BJP retains formidable advantages. Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to enjoy unmatched national visibility. The party possesses the country’s most extensive electoral organisation. Welfare schemes remain deeply embedded among beneficiaries. Infrastructure projects continue to provide visible evidence of governance. Most importantly, the BJP has consistently demonstrated an ability to shift elections away from economic discontent and toward issues of nationalism, leadership, security and welfare delivery.

The road to 2029 will therefore pass through several critical state elections. The first major test comes in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. No opposition strategy can succeed nationally without substantially reducing the BJP’s dominance in India’s largest state.

Punjab will vote around the same period, providing another indicator of opposition strength. Uttarakhand is also due for elections in 2027. Bihar follows in 2030 if the current schedule remains unchanged, while Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to hold their next Assembly elections after the 2029 Lok Sabha contest, barring any early dissolution. These states collectively represent the political heartland where the BJP remains strongest. Their outcomes will shape the momentum entering the national campaign.

What emerges, therefore, is a picture of two Indias competing for the future. One India sees continuity under Modi: political stability, muscular nationalism, infrastructure expansion and strong central leadership.

The other sees mounting economic pressure, concentration of political power, weakening institutional checks and the need for a broader coalition capable of restoring competitive politics.

For the opposition, the challenge is existential. Can Mamata Banerjee and Congress work together without one consuming the other? Can regional leaders subordinate personal ambitions to collective goals? Can the INDIA bloc survive the departure of key allies and the mutual suspicion that now shadows its meetings? (IPA Service)