Decoding Sheikh Hasina’s Announcement On Returning To Dhaka In December

By Nitya Chakraborty

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s announcement last week to return to her country in December this year ending her exile in India, has created big interests in global diplomatic circles, apart from India and Bangladesh. In an interview to the Reuters, she said that she intends to return to her own country voluntarily to face justice and revive her party Awami League. She was candid that she would lead an active political life.

Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka on August 5, 2024 at the height of the anti discrimination movement of the students and since then, the deposed PM has been living in India enjoying all the facilities given by the Indian government. Narendra Modi government did not respond to the extradition demand made by the Bangladesh government a number of times. Right now, Sheikh Hasina is facing a death sentence for her alleged role in the killing of students in 2024 protests.

So what suddenly happened that Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who was murdered on August 15, 1975 by some rebel army officers, has suddenly planned to return to Dhaka within next six months. Sheikh Hasina is not a political novice. She must have done some planning. It is also fair to assume that she has consulted the Indian government leadership. India have a stake in Sheikh Hasina’s future. Hasina and her advisers must have held consultations with other countries and international legal bodies.

As regards Bangladesh reaction, the BNP government views this as a potential trap to incite unrest but still there is some restraint on the part of the BNP administration. Sources say that once she returns, she will be treated as per law. Significantly, Hasina said in her interview that upon her return, she would expose her farcical trial at the International Criminal Court. There are reasons to believe that the deposed PM and her advisers many of whom are based in UK and USA have assessed the legal implications and the possibility of internationalise the trial in Bangladesh once it takes place.

For India, Hasina’s agreeing to return to Bangladesh on her own is a big relief as far as India-Bangladesh relations are concerned. BNP government has been insisting on extradition and there is the common view in Bangladesh that no improvement in bilateral relations with India can take place unless Sheikh Hasina is handed over to the Bangladesh government. That irritant is now over and it is easier for the Indian foreign ministry to make new moves in improving relations with Dhaka.

New Delhi has to take some supplementary moves to counter the challenge of China in Bangladesh. The visit of the Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to China in the last week of June opened up a new era of strategic relationship between the two countries. The signing of the Teesta Comprehensive Development and Restoration Treaty has serious implications for India’s river system in the north eastern part. Hasina’s going back on her own has created the right environment for the Indian side to take up bilateral issues in a friendly manner.

The BNP government in Bangladesh is now set to complete five months. In this period, PM Tarique Rahman has performed with restraint. He is under tremendous pressure from the main opposition Jamaat E Islami which always takes up any issue and gives it anti-India slant. The NCP also is equally vocal against India, though both differ in their respective approaches. BNP is the only party now in Bangladesh Parliament on which India can depend for saner approach to bilateral issues. If Hasina’s return decision opens up the possibility of better understanding between BNP government and India, that will be of positive development for New Delhi.

As of now, Bangladesh is having political stability with BNP ruling with absolute majority in Parliament. But the voters in Bangladesh are very sensitive. They exercise their franchise with vengeance on the basis of experience. Bangladesh will be having local polls in October this year. That will be the first statewise polls after February 12 national elections of 2026. The preparation for the polls has started. The Election Commission will release the electoral rolls in August.

Though Awami League is banned, all estimates made by the media sources put the Party’s present strength between 15 and 20 per cent just below BNP and Jammat. In the last two months, Sheikh Hasina has addressed her AL supporters online. More and more viewers have heard Hasina’s comments on the political situation and future plan of action. Dhaka based analysts say that by announcing her return to Bangladesh in December from her exile, Hasina seeks to energise her supporters and tell them to participate in local elections in a big way.AL members will contest local polls individually. But the total strength of the candidates and the winners will be known. Awami League wants to test the political waters through the October local polls.

In the last two months, the Awami League members and even leaders have started moving in districts. In many areas, the BNP and the AL members have been coordinating in rural developmental activities. The AL league members are drawing on the same legacy of the 1971 liberation struggle which Jamaat lacks. There are efforts to have a working relationship with the BNP and AL at the base level.

However, there is also a possibility that Bangladesh politics will again be hot after Hasina returns and trial begins. Jammat and NCP will continue to put pressure on the BNP government not to dilute its earlier position on punishment to Hasina. The trial may lead to polarization against Awami League. So that way, the unfolding of events in Bangladesh after Hasina’s return is still unpredictable. It is to be seen how Sheikh Hasina, the tried warrior of many battles faces the most formidable challenge in her political career in December. (IPA Service)