Cracks Taking Place In INDIA Bloc In Meeting Delimitation Bill Challenge

By Dr. Gyan Pathak

The monsoon session of the parliament beginning next week from July 21 is going to be politically very significant on account of delimitation and women reservation bills, passage of which can alter the political map of the country. Union Minister Ramdas Athawale has said with confidence that the bills will be passed during the upcoming session, while cracks have developed within INDIA bloc in meeting the challenge to block them, as they had successful done in the Budget Session of the Parliament on April 17.

The three bills were introduced in Lok Sabha on April 16, 2026, namely – (i) the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, (ii) the Union Territories Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, and (iii) the Delimitation Bill, 2026. However, on April 17 the Constitution amendment bill to implement reservation for women in legislatures in 2029 and increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha was defeated during an extended sitting of the Parliament, with 298 members voting in support of the bill and 230 MPs voting against it. Out of the 528 members who voted, the bill required 352 votes for a two-thirds majority.

The RPI (A) leader Athawale, who is an ally of the BJP in NDA, and a Union Minister, has said that the bills are expected to be passed in the wake of some members of TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) supporting the NDA and the DMK parting ways with the Congress. He has also claimed, “We have a two-thirds majority. Women’s Reservation Bill and Delimitation Bill will be passed.”

Athawale seemed to be big mouthed, even though we have seen how several INDIA bloc allies TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) have undergone “split” that has allegedly been caused by the BJP by adopting carrot and stick policy. That it has weakened the INDIA bloc’s strength in Lok Sabha is true. However, it is wrong that NDA has now two-thirds majority in the parliament to get any constitutional amendment passed.

Nevertheless, cracks have appeared in the INDIA bloc, and some of the leaders from its constituents have said that they will support the delimitation bill if their demands were met and the bills will be revised accordingly. It is certainly an ominous signal for the INDIA bloc in meeting the delimitation challenge in the parliament.

One of the logic the BJP leaders, especially the Union Minister of Home Amit Shah has been giving has unfortunately got legitimacy among a section of opposition. He says that 50 per cent seats will be increased in every state, and there will be no injustice to anyone. Many opposition leaders believe it to be fair, as their statements reflect.

Nevertheless, they have missed the flaw in the logic of proportionate increase in seats. For example, Kerala has 20 seats and Uttar Pradesh has 80. The difference is now 60. When their seats will be proportionately increased by 50 per cent their seats will be 30 and 120, and the difference will be increased from 60 to 90. Here is the basis on which North Indian Hindi Belt states will establish political dominance over all others, especially Southern India, the chief beneficiary of which will be BJP. That is why BJP is pushing for delimitation before 2029 Lok Sabha election, on the basis of 2011 census, and not ready to wait for the Census 2027 result.

The opposition parties have perceived this conspiracy of the BJP, and therefore they unitedly defeated the delimitation and other two bill in the Budget Session 2026 on April 17. However, the cracks seen now has made the INDIA bloc weak, and its leadership will need urgently cement the cracks to defeat the bills again in the Monsoon Session.

One of the INDIA bloc constituent NCP (Sharad Pawar) leader and its working president Supriya Sule said on July 15 that her party would consider supporting the proposed delimitation bill if the Centre guarantees a 50 per cent increase in Lok Sabha seats for every state, though she has firmly ruled out any alliance with the BJP.

He statement came after the senior leaders of both the factions of the NCP – NCP (Ajit) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) – separately met CM Devendra Fadnavis of Maharashtra late on July 14. The meeting led to speculation that both the factions will be going to merge under the BJP’s watch.

The speculation has some basis in the past political developments in Maharashtra, where six MPs of Shiv Sena (UBT) have already switched to Shiv Sena (Shinde) camp. Though Sule has voiced opposition’s concern, her statement must be taken seriously by INDIA bloc leadership and talk to the opposition leaders of all opposition parties before it is too late.

Sule’s statement made in Mumbai is significant because she has said, “Parties like the DMK, the SP and ourselves had stated that we would consider if the bill provides for 50 per cent increase in seats for all states.” She has also said, “We will formulate our stance once the bill is introduced in consultation within the INDIA bloc.”

Another important statement was made by Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut on July 16. He said that opposition would oppose the proposed delimitation bill but could reconsider its stand if the Centre incorporates amendments suggested by Opposition parties. “When the bill does come, we will all sit down and decide, and a collective decision will be taken about what to do,” he said.

Though reports have emerged that SP and DMK are also likely to switch sides to support delimitation bills on conditions, their leaders have category denied that they will be supporting the BJP’s move on delimitation. They have insisted that they will decide on the issue in INDIA bloc meeting scheduled to be held on July 20, just before the monsoon session.

Congress held a high-level meeting of the Parliamentary Strategy Group at 10 Janpath on July 16, which was chaired by Congress Parliamentary Chairperson Sonia Gandhi, to finalise the party’s floor strategy during Monsoon Session. INDIA bloc is likely to decide further strategy on its July 20 meet in New Delhi. (IPA Service)