Narendra Modi’s yearning to be acknowledged as the world leader (Vishwa Guru) has landed India in a unpleasant quagmire endangering its identity and credibility built over the years amongst the global fraternity. The longing was so acute that he even ignored the conventional wisdom to realise and at the same time to do some comprehensive analysis of the factors which conjure US or China or Russia to have India on its side.
Antagonistic relations amongst the three countries have been a historical fact. Aware of the resultant implications of allying with any of them, India since days of Nehru has been maintaining equidistance. This stand of India has been made it earn prestige and fame in the developing nations.. It is sad that an impression is being created amongst the people of India that it was never recognised as a world power, which needs a subjective analysis.
In recent years China is fast emerging as a potential threat to the US political hegemony and its claim to be the only super power, America has turned wobbly. Chinese threat perception has shaken the confidence of the global superpower America to such an extent that its President Joe Biden is ready with the surprise offer, conferring NATO membership to India, for Narendra Modi during his June visit to US.
US keenness to have India as a NATO member is an open secret. For nearly a decade especially during the presidency of Donald Trump, the issue of India joining NATO has gained momentum. The reason is, India would be major power on which US can depend for checkmating Chinese expansion in the Indo Pacific region.
Just after G7 meet in Japan, the USA has moved forward in this direction. The first major move has been, including ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Far Pacific countries into the Quad infrastructure program. The Quad is expanding itself into a self-governing counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Quad will provide technology and financial support and infra-builders to Indo-Pacific coastal states.
Second has been addition of India as a member of NATO. NATO Plus 5 is a security arrangement that brings together Nato and five aligned nations – Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea. Bringing India on board would facilitate continuous intelligence sharing between these countries and India would access the latest military technology without much of a time lag.
The US House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by Chairman Mike Gallagher and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi, overwhelmingly adopted a policy proposal to enhance Taiwan’s deterrence through strengthening NATO Plus to include India.
US has kept open NATO’s door for India for long. But it was the dithering on the part of India that was delaying the process. However the US permanent representative to the North Atlantic military alliance Julianne Smith only last week dropped the hint that some encouraging exchanges had taken place between Modi and Biden. US is confident that in the existing world political and economic scenario India would not hesitate. The Indian government had said last year that it had been in touch with NATO as a part of its initiative to engage with various stakeholders on global issues of mutual interests.
Smith said that earlier NATO did not have a particular agenda with countries in the Indo-Pacific but in recent years the alliance had started to mention the Indo-Pacific in some of its strategic documents and also recognised the importance of focusing on China as a systemic challenge. She said Modi and Biden discussed strategic tech ties on the sidelines of Air India-Boeing deal. “NATO is more than happy to engage in other ways and other forms as the opportunities present themselves. I think there’s certainly a willingness here to sit down at any time should India desire to do so”.
Some US congressmen are striving hard to convince the Modi government of the benefits of joining NATO. Even a year back the US Congressman Ro Khanna had said; “Adding India as the sixth country to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) plus would move New Delhi towards a Defense Security alignment with the United States”. He had also tried to allure India by saying; “NATO Allies get quick approval on defence agreements and the US has the same agreement with Australia, Japan New Zealand, Israel and South Korea”.
The most ridiculous argument that is put forward for enlisting India as NATO member has been the attempt to equate the India-US nuclear cooperation agreement signed in 2008 under UPA government led by Manmohan Singh, with the India’s entry into NATO. Yet another entice that is being dangled before India is that the Indian engineers and scientists would get opportunities to lead the highest technology. This would ultimately help India as the US technology is superior to Russian.
One of the top priorities adopted by Quad leaders was protection of submarine cables in the Indo-Pacific from Chinese surveillance and possible intervention in the future in case of a military emergency in Taiwan. Another area of cooperation is establishing maritime domain awareness among the Quad countries to ensure that freedom of navigation prevails in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea.
The way Taiwan has been placed at the centre stage of the US policy to checkmate China, it looks like it would become another Ukraine. Already Russian-Chinese joint exercises have been going on in Sea of Japan. India might have succeeded in keeping itself away from Ukraine by simply suggesting to maintain peace, but nearer home it would find it a tough proposition to save from the developing crisis in the Indo Pacific region.
US nursed the feeling that Bangladesh would come out in its support. But with possibility appearing to be quite bleak the US has started tightening screw. During last three years US has been initiating a number of measures like imposing sanction on the Rapid Action Battalion and senior RAB officials for serious human rights violations imposed on December 10, 2021, excluding Bangladesh from president Biden’s 110-nation First Democracy Summit held in December 10–12, 2021, bracketing Bangladesh with North Korea and Myanmar. But it does not appear that these measures have succeeded in persuading the Bangladesh Government.
Only a week back the US has come out with one more warning, this time really harsh in nature, that it would use punitive measures on people undermining the democratic election process in the way of imposing visa restrictions. The US officials call it as the new visa policy for Bangladesh announced barely seven months before the country’s next general elections. This is nothing but direct interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh. Apparently, this sounds good, but it is an indirect threat to present prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
The warning is seen as a potential threat. If Hasina succumbs to US threat, then the elections would be declared “fair, held in peaceful manner”. If not US may resort to arm twisting mechanism. The US diktat openly questions the right of Bangladesh people to elect their government. The new policy announced by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken makes it clear that US has clubbed Bangladesh with Nigeria, Somalia.
Significantly Krishnan Srinivasan, former Indian foreign secretary termed the US decision ridiculous and said; “During the last two elections (in Bangladesh), the US were huffing and puffing… It seems, this time they mean business,”
US is angry with Bangladesh for playing the Russian card in recent weeks. The US will endanger its economic and strategic interests. This was indicated by none else but by the US officials who visited Bangladesh in recent months. The US ambassador Peter Haas has been quite active in focusing on human rights and democracy in the relations of the United States in Bangladesh since he arrived in Dhaka in March 2022.
Hasina has taken a number of initiatives to overcome the country’s chronic power shortage, building a nuclear power plant with a Russian company, Rostrum, under a $12 billion contract, 90 percent of which is funded by Russia. India has been facilitating the shipment of Russian nuclear power plant materials via an overland route to Bangladesh. Meanwhile in a significant development China’s new ambassador to Bangladesh did not mince words in saying; “China and Bangladesh are natural cooperation partners and Chinese-aided infrastructure projects had provided more than a million jobs in Bangladesh”. (IPA Service)
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