As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its third year on Saturday, February 24 Russian President Vladimir Putin looks totally relaxed as against his competitor US President Joe Biden who lost his temper in an election gathering on Wednesday by calling Putin ‘SOB’ which is generally not used in public by the government heads even by the American standards. President Putin cooly dealt with Biden’s remark by mentioning even then he would like Biden to be the next President of USA as against Donald Trump.
The confidence shown by the Russian President is understandable. After defying all speculations in the western media about his failing health, revolt by the military and the collapse of the Russian economy following US and western nations sanctions in the wake of war in Ukraine, President Putin is comfortable in his present position with a robust Russian economy which grew by 3.1 per cent in 2023, faster than most of the G-7 countries. As against this, the Eurozone economies are facing crisis with the energy prices soaring high adversely affecting the livelihood of the citizens. Japan and Britain are facing recession, German economy is limping.
As regards the war front, Russia, after a few reverses has returned to an advantageous position. Last week, Ukraine was forced to withdraw from the key town of Avdivka after months of fierce fighting making this the worst defeat of President Zelensky since the fall of Bakhmut in May this year. But there is not going to be an early end to war even after two years, both sides know this. No ceasefire formula is at the table now. Ukraine is looking for more modern weapons to fight the Russians.
Therein lies the problem with the young president of Ukraine. He is not getting the weapons he is looking for to take on the Russians. President Biden is fully with him but he is not getting the funds passed by the Congress as the Republicans as also many left leaning Democrats are opposing. President Zelensky has urged the European nations to send emergency funds till the US funds reach. But the European nations are still discussing and the impending elections in a number of member countries are delaying the process.
Since the start of the crisis, the EU and its regional allies have spent more than $100 billion funding Ukraine’s defense effort, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. Earlier this month, EU leaders agreed to $54 billion package for Ukraine between now and 2027. The UK has pledged $ 15 billion. According to the Kiel Institute, the US has spent $ 66 billion so far with another $ 60 billion in pipeline.
The NATO nations task has become more complicated with the starting of the Israeli war on October 7 last year. The EU nations have been asked by the US to contribute liberally to help Israel. This is a double whammy for the EU nations as already, the economies are facing financial crunch and there are little additional funds available for war efforts in foreign countries. The EU nations feel that the US should take more responsibility which the US plainly refuses.
The coming elections in the US and the possibility of Donald Trump becoming the next President have also baffled the NATO nations. Trump has not clearly stated what his Ukraine policy would be, save his claim that he could end the war within 24 hours. The former president’s anti-NATO rhetoric, general disdain for European institutions and odd admiration for Putin are well-known. NATO nations on their own are not ready for a long term commitment on weapons to Ukraine taking account the uncertainty of Ukraine policy after November elections. As a result, President Zelensky is in a swoop. He is not sure about his long term military strategy.
President Putin has now time in his favour. He can wait till the full modernization of a part of Russia’s weapons used in Ukraine is completed. Russia lost in the initial months heavily due to the low quality of the weapons. The gaps have been identified. Now programme is on for replenishment of those losses by more sophisticated weapons. Ukraine has also sent a list to the NATO nations for immediate delivery. There is a proposal that the EU nations will buy available weapons from the US companies and remodel those in German factories as per Ukraine requirements. The EU nations feel that Russia should not be allowed to win, otherwise, Russia under Putin will be a big threat to European security.
As regards President Putin, he is preparing for the Presidential elections to be held from March 15 to 17 this year. He is standing as an independent supported by two parties Just Russia: For Truth and United Russia. There are four candidates including President Putin. The other three are Communist Party leader Nikolai Kharitrinov, Leonid Stutsky of Liberal Democratic Party and Viadiglav Davankov of New People’s Party. All candidates are members of the state Duma. The Communist Party got 13.4 per cent of the votes in the last election. The Party supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine though there are differences in approach.
Putin is an authoritarian to the hilt. He has ensured that his real opponents can be put out of politics. Alexei Navalny died in prison but he was not that popular with Russian people as was being made out by Western media. President Putin has an acceptability of more than 65 per cent as of now. Many western correspondents agree that most of the common Russians support Putin as they feel that he is the only strong leader. As per the Russian election law, for presidential win, the candidate has to get 50 per cent of the total votes, otherwise there will be a second round on April 7, 2024. In this round, any person with largest number of votes will be elected. The new Parliament will begin its session on May 7, 2024.All indications suggest that Putin will be able to organize more than 50 per cent of the votes and get elected in the first round itself.
For now, the going seems comfortable for President Putin. He is not beleaguered electorally like President Biden. In the latest geopolitics, he has got temporary advantage. It is to be seen how he makes use of that in 2024. (IPA Service)
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