By Dr. Gyan Pathak
BJP has released its first list of candidates for Vidhan Sabha elections in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh on August 17, almost two months earlier than the expected date of announcement of elections. BJP’s central leadership has taken a simplistic view of the complex phenomenon called ‘political contest’, and presumed that their candidates would find more time to preparing for the tough electoral battle against the Congress in one-on-one fight. However, it’s a very high-stake political gamble, which may ultimately prove to be a mistake.
Notification of the last Vidhan Sabha election had come on October 16, 2018. It is expected therefore, the Election Commission of India may announce the elections in October, and the entire election process would be completed before the expiry of the terms of the Chhattisgarh Vidhan Sabha on January 3, 2024, and of the Madhya Pradesh Vidhan Sabha on January 16, 2024.
Why then the BJP central leadership was in hurry in respect of these two states when other three states Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram would also be going to poll along with these states? Election Commission of India is expected to announce Vidhan Sabha elections in all these five states simultaneously after two months from now. Thus, the hurry of the BJP leadership has betrayed its impatience on account of its very-high stakes in these two states.
Only a cursory glance at the list of candidates for both the states reveals the reason of impatience. Before we go into further detail, some words on the simplistic view of the BJP’s central leadership is worth noting, that believes that their candidates will have more time for ground level preparation compared to the opposition candidates. But then they forgot another fact that the disgruntled elements and their leaders would have also enough time to work against the BJP’s candidates, especially at a time when the state BJP units in both the states is plagued with severe infightings.
BJP’s stakes are very high in both the states, since these states are important for the PM Narendra Modi to return to power for the third time after the 2024 general election in the country. In Chhattisgarh BJP had won 9 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, and in Madhya Pradesh had won 28 out of 29 seats. BJP had this spectacular gain while it was riding on the wave in its favour in the backdrop of Pulwama attack. Now, there is no wave in its favour.
Additionally, as the ruling political party at the Centre, there is an anti-incumbency working against it. There is also an undercurrent of anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress in Chhattisgarh, and hence BJP believes it can successfully take on CM Bhupesh Baghel led Congress government. However, the ground reality suggest otherwise. BJP is on slippery ground in the state on account of severe infighting.
As for Madhya Pradesh, there is double anti-incumbency working against the BJP since it is the ruling party in both the state and at the Centre. Therefore, the double-engine government is heading towards the vortex of double anti-incumbency.
BJP knows the political pitfalls spread for them in both the states. The party was able to win only 15 seats in 2018 Vidhan Sabha election in Chhattisgarh out of 90, and it could get only 32.97 per cent of votes. As against them, the Congress was able to win 68 seats with a share of votes of 43.4 per cent.
Now look at the fist list of candidates for Chhattisgarh that contains names of candidates for 21 Vidhan Sabha seats. All of these are the seats from where BJP candidates were lost elections in 2018. The list has news candidates this time and all candidates defeated in 2018 elections have been replaced. The Most new faces are district or zilla panchayat level leaders, and most of them were in the midst of infighting.
BJP is also in very bad shape in Madhya Pradesh, where tribals and Dalits are angry with the double engine government. Out of 230 seats in the Vidhan Sabha, 35 seats are reserved for SCs and 47 are reserved for STs. There are only 148 general seats.
How much worse the BJP is can be understood by cursory glance at the 2018 Vidhan Sabah results. Congress had thrown BJP out of power in a close contest between the two. Congress had won 114 seats with a votes share of 40.89 per cent, while BJP could win 109 seats with 41.02 per cent of votes. BJP got the Congress split led by the rebellion Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia in two dislodged it from power to form its government under CM Shivraj Sing Chouhan. Congress is gaining popularity, and there is also sympathy working for Rahul Gandhi and the party.
Given this backdrop of a prospect of the tough and close contest with the Congress, the BJP has released the first list of its candidate for 39 seats in Madhya Pradesh, hoping that it would give more time to its candidate for political campaigning.
Out of 39 candidates, 21 are for reserved constituencies, which betrays the concern of the BJP, on account of the anger of Adivasis and Dalits against the party. Out of 21, 13 are ST and 8 SC seats. BJP is also focusing on women that is why there are 5 women in the first list of the party. STs, SCs, and Women may prove to be game changer in the sate election.
Additionally, there is sever infighting in the BJP, which is clear in the statement of the state BJP secretary Rajneesh Aggarwal who said, “We have been working towards mobilising our karyakartas since we lost in some challenging seats. We announced the candidates early because there are many hopefuls who emerge in these seats… we announced the list for clarity and to stem infighting. This fight for seats will be tackled early on.”
BJP has been already running intense campaign, and even PM Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah have been vigorously participating, and attacking the Congress and the recently formed opposition INDIA alliance. Stakes are unprecedentedly high for the BJP in general and PM Modi in particular. (IPA Service)
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