Back of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mind, in the recesses, will be the depleted National Democratic Alliance, the shadow of it. Along with the other, the main worry – will he get another shot at being prime minister or will he be third time unlucky? The RSS is worried. A survey carried out by Maharashtra’s ‘Sakal’ newspaper group says the BJP is in choppy seas, not just in Maharashtra, but in all the states, which, according to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, make up the Union of India, a concept which is wholeheartedly endorsed by the disqualified Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi.
Less than a year short of general elections 2024, the Sangh Parivar has come to the realization that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the brink of his Waterloo when at least one more Modi term is a must for accomplishing the Sangh Parivar’s overall plans for India. The surveys, both in-house and outside, aren’t rosy. Uttar Pradesh and the northeastern eastern states are clear worries. Also in Bihar, and in West Bengal, where the panchayat and other local bodies’ elections loom dark.
To add to the BJP’s sense of loss, the June 23 Patna Conclave of the opposition parties is a both a taunt and grim reminder of what is coming. While the opposition is coming together, the NDA, which became 25 on May 15 this year, is bare bones and body at a time when the BJP is direly in need of alliance partners. Will the Opposition under Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar do a repeat of what the Opposition under Jai Prakash Narain did in 1977?
The BJP stands alone apart from a few shadowy partners whom JP Nadda would be able to count on his fingers and still be left twiddling his thumbs! The BJP’s partners include Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), the Rashtriya Lok Jan Shakti Party (Pashupati Paras faction), the Apna Dal (Soney Lal faction) and the AIADMK. A couple of days ago, Chandrababu Naidu came calling with his Telugu Desam Party and that leaves Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP where?
Isn’t it telling that the NDA at 25 is a shadow of its 2014 and 2019 self? The BJP’s electoral prospects look dim. It is also telling that another ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey is long overdue, but the organizers of the survey appear to be in no hurry to unleash one more ‘MoN’ on Modi & Co. Instead, according to sources, ‘Axis My India’ has been hired by the BJP to carry out an internal assessment of the BJP’s 2024 poll prospects.
Looking state by state, taking the journey from Kerala and upwards, South India is a closed chapter for the BJP, especially after getting beaten in Karnataka. Modi went to Kerala with a Vande Bharat train and there he met some Christian community leaders – hardly the alliance that will gain the BJP a foothold in Kerala. Whether the alliance with the AIADMK will fetch BJP dividends in Tamil Nadu remains a thought in BJP state unit President K Annamalai’s head.
The Janata Dal (S) could likely be the BJP’s ally in Karnataka, but that will be a case of two losers ganging up in 2024 for more of what the two got in 2023. It will require a complete reversal of voting trends in Karnataka to win even half the state’s 28 Lok Sabha seats. Neighbouring Maharashtra is a study of how misconceived the plot to topple the Uddhav Thackeray government was. The BJP would have been better placed for 2024 if it hadn’t played Hindutva villain with the Shiv Sena.
In Bihar, RJD and JD (U) had already left BJP floundering in shallow waters. The June 23 Patna Conclave of the opposition parties will change the situation completely. BJP spokespersons are already with their backs to the wall. And the BJP IT Cell is running out of ideas; its attention is divided between Rahul Gandhi in the United States and opposition unity in Patna!
How to tackle opposition unity with a wafer thin and depleted of strength NDA is worrying thin the BJP’s confidence – the party with a difference unable to make a difference for the first time in decades. And there aren’t any more political parties to ally with, nor can the BJP create more by breaking political parties, like it did with the Shiv Sena. The time for breaking parties is gone and, like Nitish Kumar said, the JD (U) got out of the BJP’s deadly embrace just in time.
The fact of the matter is, the BJP with the active participation of the Modi government used the central investigative agencies against all non-BJP ruled state governments and in the process lost the friendship of previously friendly parties left, right and centre. The Akali Dal will not return to the NDA, or will it? Will the BJD announce a tie-up with the BJP, not likely?
In the northeast, BJP morale is down at the heel! And BJP faces anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. None of the regional players want ‘in’ with the BJP anywhere, which is another fallout of the Modi government’s misuse of the CBI and Enforcement Directorate. The BJP is reduced to wooing the likes of Upendra Kushwaha and Chirag Paswan. The feedback the party is getting is demoralizing the cadre.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Operation Pasmanda’ fell flat in Karnataka. Last heard, Muslims en bloc will vote Congress in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra. Even, perhaps, in Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal. The BJP tally in 2024 will be way below the required 272 threshold. The RSS read-right the writing on the 2024 wall for the friendless BJP. (IPA Service)
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