The 2023 assembly election season has started with the polls in Tripura scheduled on February 16 and Meghalaya, Nagaland on February 27. The results of all the three states in the first phase, will be known on March 2. The outcome will be having significant impact on the tempo of the poll campaign in the remaining six states scheduled during the year. Karnataka will be facing elections in the second phase in April/ May this year.
As indications suggest, the all powerful BJP, despite its massive resources and continuous campaigns by both the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Home Minister Amit Shah is set to lose power as junior partner in Meghalaya. In Tripura, the BJP is in a tight condition as its partner of the alliance IFTF has lost its earlier base to the new tribal party Tipra Motha(TM) which is fighting alone with the option open for limited understanding with the main alliance of the Left Front led by the CPI(M) and the Congress. Nagaland is the only state where the BJP is confident to come back as a junior partner in the regional party led alliance.. Out of 60 seats, BJP is contesting in 20 and its regional partner is contesting the remaining 40 seats.
As of now, BJP’s stake is very high in Tripura. The party after years of nurturing by the RSS captured power in 2018 assembly polls defeating the CPI(M) which was in power for long years. The BJP got 35 seats out of the 60 seats while the CPI(M) got 16. But the CPI(M) kept its voting share at a comfortable level of 42.2 per cent as against BJP’s 43. 59 per cent.. In the last five years. the political situation in Tripura has changed substantially leading to increasing people’s anger against the BJP rule. Left Front led by the CPI(M) has finally allied with the Congress to fight the BJP unitedly. The Congress has improved its base support in the recent months after a long period of disarray.
But the most important factor in the electoral battle is the new tribal party Tipra Motha(TM) which has in its fold about 80 per cent of tribal support. If there could have been a total understanding of the Left-Congress alliance with TM, it could have been said that BJP’s defeat is certain in next assembly polls. But that is not certain now as TM is contesting in 45 seats out of 60. In the tribal 20 constituencies, TM has a big edge but the party headed by Pradyot Narayan Manikya Debbarma, the scion of the royal family is a respected politician and he holds support in general constituencies also.
For the Left-Congress alliance, it will be best to have some understanding now even after the withdrawal of nominations, so that in some critical constituencies, ways are found out to avoid split of anti-BJP votes. That has to be ensured to defeat the BJP. Further, doors should be kept open for post poll alliance with TM if there is a hung assembly. Trinamool Congress has also fielded 28 candidates in the polls in the state and the party supremo Mamata Banerjee is visiting Tripura on February 6 and 7. Mamata has a big halo among the Bengalees and she is likely to draw big crowds. IF TMC gets good votes from the Bengalees, that will be at the expense of BJP votes also, apart from Left. So that way, TMC votes also will be crucial in determining the outcome.
In Meghalaya, the ruling NPP led by Conrad Sangma is contesting in all seats, so is its NDA partner BJP. Similarly Trinamool Congress and Congress also are contesting in 60 seats each. The contest will be three cornered between NPP, TMC and the Congress with the BJP playing a marginal role. Congress got 21 seats in 2018 polls with the highest vote percentage of 28.5 per cent. BJP got only 2 seats with 9.6 per cent votes. But then, the BJP manipulated and increased its seats and putting pressure from the centre on the regional parties, became the junior partner. Trinamool Congress competed with the BJP in mobilising resources and finally succeeded in organising defections from the Congress. TMC has now 12 legislators led by Mukul Sangma and the party has been campaigning as the main party of the opposition seeking to unseat Conrad Sangma.
Congress, despite defections, still retains big base in Meghalaya. If the party can get adequate central help, they can certainly get some seats. But the problem with the Congress in NE states is that the central leadership has abandoned the region with seven states. The BJP always sends its top leaders to the NE states to help the state party units. Amit Shah himself devotes lot of time. But the Congress has allowed the NE states, once its stronghold to slip away from its control to BJP. Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sharma is in charge of NDA in NE region. There is no one in the Congress who can match his organisational skill.
After the success of Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress high command must give full attention on the election preparedness in these three states… If the BJP loses power in two states out of three that will give a big push to the campaign in Karnataka in the second phase. Congress is already advantageously placed in Karnataka against the BJP.A big new push is needed to defeat the BJP in the assembly polls in Karnataka.. For that the party leadership should proceed with a killer instinct against the BJP. There is no time to lose. BJP’s defeat in the first phase is essential to impart a big momentum to the entire opposition in its campaign in the next six assembly polls during the year 2023. (IPA Service)
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